Impacts of Hurricane Irma on Florida Agriculture: Update #4

By Rod Clouser, Alan Hodges, Christa Court, John Vansickle and Spiro Stefanou
University of Florida-IFAS, Food and Resource Economics Department
October 2, 2017

This update report (#4) on impacts of Hurricane Irma to Florida agriculture provides updated estimates of
crop values losses in 2017, plus estimated losses for beef cattle, dairy and aquaculture industries.
Hurricane and tropical storm force winds and precipitation from Hurricane Irma were mapped according to
information from the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Map of wind speed zones and precipitation for Hurricane Irma, Sep. 9-12, 2017

1
The windspeed zones were overlaid on the Cropland Data Layer from USDA-NASS to determine
the area of various crops in each zone1. In addition, published values for specialty crops such as
citrus, small fruits, and vegetables, that are not represented well in the Cropland Data Layer, were
used to allocate cropland areas by county and windspeed zone.

Estimated loss values for each crop were based on the area affected (acres) together with average
yields per acre and commodity prices from 2016-17 crop surveys or from the 2012 Census of
Agriculture2. Average values per acre for the commodities are shown in Table 1.

Table 1. Average value per acre for Florida agricultural commodities

Average Value
Crop / Commodity
Per Acre
Avocado $3,208
Beans, snap $3,960
Blueberries $11,445
Cabbage $6,256
Corn, grain $493
Cotton, Upland $612
Cucumber $5,393
Floriculture $49,120
Grapefruit $3,462
Hay $432
Melons, cantaloupe $5,157
Melons, watermelon $5,555
Oranges $2,586
Oranges, mid & navel $2,502
Oranges, Valencia $2,652
Peanuts $733
Peppers, bell $16,255
Potatoes $3,784
Rice $788
Sod $2,752
Soybeans $315
Squash $5,187
Strawberries $34,365
Sugarcane $1,249
Sweet corn $4,640
Tangelos $3,468
Tangerines $3,889
Tomatoes $13,650
Wheat $117
Woody ornamentals $11,596

1
Cropland Data Layer available at https://nassgeodata.gmu.edu/CropScape/. Data are derived from Landsat 8
imagery.

2
Crop area, yield and price data retrieved from USDA-NASS Quick Stats website:
https://quickstats.nass.usda.gov/.

2
The areas affected for each crop and estimated loss of sales value are summarized in Table 2. A total of
5.53 million (M) acres of Florida croplands were affected by Hurricane Irma, including 542,847 acres
under major hurricane force winds (categories 3 and 4, 111-156 mph), 2.86 M acres under hurricane
categories 1 and 2 (74-110 mph), and 2.13 M acres under tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph).
Crop losses were estimated assuming a damage rate of 75 percent for areas with category 3-4 hurricane
winds, 50 percent for areas with category 1-2 hurricane winds, 30 percent for areas with tropical storm
winds 58 to 74 miles per hour, and 15 percent for areas with tropical storm winds 39-57 mph. These
damage rates are broadly consistent with damages reported by UF-IFAS Extension personnel throughout
the state, and with previous studies on past hurricanes in Florida3.
Total crop sales losses in 2017 using this methodology are estimated at $1.567 billion (Table 2).
Accounting for data challenges, a plausible sales loss of $1.5-$1.8 billion would not be unexpected. Crops
that had significant losses were citrus ($553 M; oranges, grapefruit, other), sugarcane ($383 M), grains and
oilseeds ($54 M; peanuts, corn, soybeans, rice), other field crops such as cotton and sod ($64 M),
ornamental trees ($224 M), and floriculture ($212 M; foliage, bedding plants, etc.). Estimated losses for
floriculture crops under protection in greenhouses were reduced by 50 percent. Note that these loss
estimates for citrus were reduced from previous estimates to account for bearing acreage rather than total
acreage.
Losses for annual winter vegetable and berry crops that were just starting to be planted at the time of the
storm were estimated at $72 M, reflecting 10 percent of the average annual value to account for a
shortened production season and expected market distortions due to later production dates.
Losses were not included for blueberries or melons (watermelons, cantaloupe) because these crops were
not in season at the time of the storm. Losses for pecans were not included because reliable yield and price
information was not available. Losses for pasture/grassland were assumed to be minimal.
A study conducted by the Florida Forest Service estimated damages to timber stands in Florida using a
similar methodology, based on wind maps, together with forestland area from the USDA-Forest Inventory
and Analysis, and average timber stumpage prices. There is an estimated total of 35.8 M pine, hardwood,
cypress, and other trees affected, including 5.5 M in the catastrophic category (50%+ damaged) and 11.6
M in the severe category (21-50% damaged). The calculated value of damage was estimated at $1.633
billion. This is coincidentally very close to the estimated value of agricultural crop damage, however, this
value represents timber than would normally be harvested over several years. For this analysis, the annual
loss in 2017-18 was assumed to be one fifth of the total, and that 20 percent of the timber value could be
salvaged, giving a net annual loss of $261 M.
Annual production losses for animal industries were reported by industry stakeholders at $39 M, including
$14 M for beef cattle (dead animals and lost weight due to stress), $7.5 M for dairy farms (lost production
due to lack of refrigeration), and $17.5 M for aquaculture production of food fish, ornamental fish,
mollusks, alligators and aquatic plants (Table 3).
In total, crop, timber and livestock products losses were $1.861 billion.

3
Abrigo, et al. The impact of four hurricanes in 2004 on the Florida citrus industry: experiences and lessons learned.
Proc. Fla. State Hort. Soc. 118:66-74, 2005.

3
Table 2. Florida cropland area affected by Hurricane Irma winds and estimated value of crop losses
Major Hurricane Total
Tropical
Hurricane Category 1-2 Cropland Estimated Crop
Storm (39-
Crop Category 3-4 (74-110 Area Sales Loss
73 mph)
(111-156 mph) mph) Affected Value**
- - - - - - - - - - - - Acres* - - - - - - - - - - - -
Crops With Significant Damage
Citrus (bearing acreage) 61,235 280,775 70,652 412,662 $552,872,897
Oranges 60,195 264,344 43,049 367,588 $491,943,289
Grapefruit 688 8,059 25,099 33,846 $41,798,484
Other citrus (tangerines, tangelos, other) 352 8,372 2,504 11,228 $19,131,123
Sugarcane 205,262 267,946 61,115 534,324 $382,603,397
Grains & Oilseeds 22,461 21,996 288,760 333,217 $53,665,072
Peanuts 0 16,524 137,569 154,093 $28,453,111
Corn 474 383 60,743 61,600 $8,535,908
Soybeans 0 42 29,184 29,226 $2,071,511
Rice 21,988 3,308 1,303 26,598 $14,604,542
Other field crops 22,217 15,665 133,142 171,023 $63,644,377
Cotton 0 749 92,272 93,021 $9,081,986
Sod/Grass Seed 6,783 14,025 28,313 49,120 $54,562,391
Ornamental tree farms 21,823 81 9,632 31,535 $223,760,953
Floriculture 2,444 1,943 10,282 14,669 $211,844,457
Production in the open 1,141 907 4,800 6,849 $134,853,938
Production under greenhouse/shadehouse
1,303 1,036 5,481 7,820 $76,990,520
(loss reduced by 50%)

Crops With Minor Damage

Annual winter specialty crops partially
planted or fields prepared (assumed 10% of 40,816 51,646 71,216 163,679 $72,324,496
season lost)
Strawberries 33 10,291 375 10,700 $18,155,755
Tomatoes 6,656 17,184 4,154 27,994 $20,189,339
Peppers, bell 5,027 3,168 4,705 12,900 $10,993,454
Snap beans 10,282 4,393 12,624 27,299 $5,351,732
Sweet corn 9,696 7,524 17,201 34,420 $7,484,929
Cucumbers 7,146 7,027 7,499 21,672 $5,993,214
Squash 1,974 2,047 1,777 5,799 $1,557,167
Potatoes 3 11 22,882 22,896 $2,598,906
Forages (assumed 20% of crop damaged
61 50,990 232,267 283,318 $7,095,747
at end of season)

Crops With Little or Indeterminate Damage

Blueberries (not in season) 0 2,426 2,233 4,659
Melons (not in season) 0 962 2,467 3,428
Pecans (price/yield information not available) 0 0 1,843 1,843
Pasture/grassland 157,057 2,122,112 1,243,614 3,522,784

Total All Crops 533,375 2,816,542 2,127,223 5,477,140 $1,567,811,396

*Acreages and average value per acre calculated from wind zone map overlaid on Cropland data layer, Florida county 2012
Ag Census data, and 2016 statewide crop survey data (USDA-NASS).
**Assumed loss of 75% for areas with category 3-4 hurricane winds (111-156 mph), 50% for category 1-2 hurricane winds
(74-110 mph), 30% for tropical storm winds 58-74 mph, 15% for tropical storm winds 39-57 mph.

4
Table 3. Florida animal industry production losses due to Hurricane Irma
Industry Type of Loss Value

Beef cattle Dead animals: 100 @ $800 $80,000

Lost weight of calves awaiting shipment: 187,000 @ $75 $14,025,000
Lost production and milk dumped due to lack of
Dairy farms $7,500,000
refrigeration
Lost production of food fish, ornamental fish, mollusks,
Aquaculture $17,500,000
alligators, aquatic plants
Total $39,105,000

Total economic impacts of these estimated crop, timber and animal/product losses using this latest data
were evaluated using the IMPLAN regional input-output analysis software and model data for the State of
Florida in 2015 (Implan Group, LLC). Information was entered into the model for specific industry sectors
as shown in Table 4.

Table 4. Inputs to IMPLAN model for economic impact analysis of Florida crop and animal
losses due to Hurricane Irma
Industry Sales
IMPLAN Industry Sector (Commodity)
(Loss)
1 Oilseed farming (peanuts, soybeans) ($30,524,622)
2 Grain farming (corn, rice) ($23,140,450)
3 Vegetable and melon farming ($72,324,496)
4 Fruit farming (citrus) ($552,872,897)
6 Greenhouse, nursery, and floriculture production ($435,605,410)
8 Cotton farming ($9,081,986)
9 Sugarcane and sugar beet farming ($382,603,397)
10 All other crop farming (sod) ($54,562,391)
11 Beef cattle ranching and farming, including
($14,105,000)
feedlots and dual-purpose ranching and farming
12 Dairy cattle and milk production ($7,500,000)
14 Animal production, except cattle and poultry and
($17,500,000)
eggs (aquaculture)
15 Forestry, forest products, and timber tract
($261,280,000)
production (timber)
Total ($1,861,100,649)

Total economic impacts of crop and animal product losses in Florida attributable to Hurricane
Irma were estimated at 55,854 fulltime and part-time jobs, $2.39 billion in labor income (wages,
salaries, benefits, proprietor income), $3.74 billion in value added contribution to Gross Domestic
Product, and $6.52 billion in industry output (revenues), as summarized in Table 5. These
estimates include the indirect and induced regional multiplier effects for industry supply chain

5
spending and employee household and government spending, respectively. In addition, impacts of
losses on government tax revenues were estimated at $214 M for state and local governments and
$581 M to the federal government, as shown in Table 6.

Table 5. Economic impacts of crop and animal product losses in Florida due to Hurricane Irma
Industry
Employment Labor Income Value Added
Impact Type Output
(Multiplier Effect)
Jobs - - - - - - - - - Million Dollars - - - - - - - - -

Direct -20,845 -$785.01 -$1,009.99 -$1,861.10

Indirect -7,094 -$272.97 -$498.54 -$846.73

Induced -27,914 -$1,330.73 -$2,234.50 -$3,816.95

Total -55,854 -$2,388.71 -$3,743.02 -$6,524.79

Values in 2017 dollars. Employment impact includes fulltime and part-time jobs.
Source: IMPLAN tradeflows model for the State of Florida and 2015 model data (Implan Group, LLC).

Table 6. State-local and federal government tax impacts of crop and animal product losses in
Florida due to Hurricane Irma
Loss (Million
Tax Item
dollars)
State & Local Taxes
Dividends -$1.01
Social Ins Tax- Employee Contribution -$0.79
Social Ins Tax- Employer Contribution -$1.60
Tax on Production and Imports: Sales Tax -$97.89
Tax on Production and Imports: Property Tax -$63.60
Tax on Production and Imports: Motor Vehicle Licenses -$1.51
Tax on Production and Imports: Severance Tax -$0.11
Tax on Production and Imports: Other Taxes -$14.30
Tax on Production and Imports: S/L Non-Taxes -$6.13
Corporate Profits Tax -$8.58
Personal Tax: Income Tax $0.00
Personal Tax: Non=Taxes (Fines- Fees -$15.17
Personal Tax: Motor Vehicle License -$2.24
Personal Tax: Property Taxes -$0.92
Personal Tax: Other Tax (Fish/Hunt) -$0.17
Total State and Local Tax -$214.00
Federal Taxes
Social Ins Tax- Employee Contribution -$137.87
Social Ins Tax- Employer Contribution -$115.17
Tax on Production and Imports: Excise Taxes -$16.32
Tax on Production and Imports: Custom Duty -$6.15
Tax on Production and Imports: Fed Non-Taxes -$1.00
Corporate Profits Tax -$80.02
Personal Tax: Income Tax -$224.28
Total Federal Tax -$580.82

6
In future updates, agricultural losses will be estimated for damages to citrus trees, and to capital assets
such as farm buildings, equipment and other infrastructure, as better information becomes available.