Monaco Engineering Solutions

Fabio Oshiro (21 Sept 2017)

Application of Reliability Studies and
How they have been used to address Reliability Issues
in O&G Downstream Sector
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Crude Oil Price
www.nasdaq.com "We have seen two years in a row of huge
declines in upstream investment. If CBC news
this is the case in 2017, if we don't see
substantial rebound, we may well see
that the market tightens around 2020
and the spare production capacity
shrinks,
said Fatih Birol, the chairman of the IEA, at a
news conference in Houston.

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Winners and Losers from
Lower Oil Prices

Motorists (cheaper fuel) E&P Sector

Haulage Companies Renewables Industry
Packaging / Plastics Industry UK Government
Farmers (cheaper fertilizers) Pension Funds
Airlines (cheaper fuel)

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Application of Reliability Studies
Summary
Define Phase Plan Phase Act Phase Feedback Phase
Strategy Evaluation Analysis Improvement

Reliability and Data Collection FME(C)A Audits

Integrity Plans Data Mapping Weibull Analysis Training
Objectives and Gap Assessment RAM / FTA / Markov o Lunch and
Goals Report RBI / CRAS Learn
ECA o Lessons Learnt
Key Performance
Indicators (KPIs) RCM
CBA
MCP
SPIR
CMMS
EMS
MHA
RCA

PLASMA Reliability Training

Support MAROS Support RAM Training
Softwares AVSim Training
CMMS Training
PM Plus
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Application of the Reliability Studies
Different Project Engineering Phase
Package / Subsystem Level
Involves the entire system as
a combination of its key
subsystems, e.g., manifold,
separators, gas
compressors, etc.
System Level
Involves the entire system FEED
as a combination of its key
subsystems, e.g.,
manifold, separators, gas
compressors, etc. DETAILED
Component Level
BASIC DESIGN OPERATE
Involves individual
components within each sub- Installation and
system (e.g., gate valve, Operation level
connector, seal, gasket, Involves equipment,
sensor, etc.) including tasks, procedures and
manufacturing and assembly interfaces particularly in
processes. relation to installation.

CONCEPTUAL AND FEASIBILITY

Project Level
Involves the impact of
infrastructure on the total
project performance.

Projects Common Process / Increase SoW

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Application of Reliability Studies within the
Asset Performance Management (APM)
CORPORATE COMPANY
CMMS / ERP / PINS / Others

Enterprise
Services

Process CMMS
Integration 1

Integration
Framework CMMS
2

PLASMA Features

Weibull Analysis
RAM/RBD/FTA/Markov Analysis
TXT Files ECA/FMEA/RCM /CBA Analysis
OTHERS Risk Based Inspection (RBI/CRAS)
Root Cause Analysis (RCA)
Maint. Craft Proc.(MCP)
Mech. Handling. Ass. (MHA)
Equipment Mov. System (EMS)
Spare Parts (SPIR)
TECHNICAL COMPANY CMMS
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A few generic reliability issues
1. Lack of reliability culture/program
2. Inconsistent reliability data
3. No integration between the reliability studies
4. Maintenance / Reliability engineer overburden with too many tasks
5. Reliability software complexity
6. Misuse of equipment
7. Location of the suppliers
8. Design not taking into consideration all operating / environmental
conditions
9. New technologies
10. Excessive/Lack number of spares
11. Work Permit delays (requirements)
12. Lack of training
13. No supervision
14. Unclear procedures
15. Multi cultural team
16. Inadequate tools
17.
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RAM Study using PLASMA
Downstream
Project: Refinery

Location: Middle East

Description: New Gas Train (identical to the existing facilities to

increase production of methane, ethane, propane, etc. Facility include
pre-treatment, recovery, fractionation, etc.

MES Solutions:

RAM model was developed to forecast the production of each relevant

product. Bottlenecks have been identified and recommendations
achieved a potential production gain of approximately 3%.

Performance of unspared and 2x50% compressors expected to be

high (high reliability) assessed in detail.

Critical submersible pumps in drainage area with maintainability

challenges have been identified and assessed in detail.

Issues with the external supplies (e.g. chemicals such as methanol,

sea water supply) identified and quantified.
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Reliability Availability and Maintainability
(RAM) Analysis

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 Weibull Analysis
Comparison between Suppliers
Project: Reliability Assessment of different Suppliers

Location: Middle East

Description: Different sets of compressor reliability data have been

provided for a detailed Weibull Analysis. Operator required a MTTF
target of at least 100,000 hours.

MES Solutions:

Weibull Analysis was performed and the curve parameters for each
supplier was calculated (Shape Factor 1, 2 and 3). Each supplier
has a life characteristic factor (approximately equal to 100,000
hours).

Supplier 1 Supplier 2 Supplier 3 The Reliability Curves were plotted and the Reliability at 100,000
TTF 1 1000 4 60000
TTF 2 2000 50 80000 hours was calculated:
TTF 3 3000 500 90000
R1 (100,000) = 12% These values are not real. Just
TTF 4 S 2000 S
examples!
TTF 5 S 6000 S R2 (100,000) = 36%
TTF 6 100000 17000 Hidden
TTF 7 300000 S 200000 R3 (100,000) = 48%
TTF 8 Etc Hidden Etc
These values are not real. 10
Weibull Analysis
Data Analysis

Reliability & Maintenance

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Maintainability Review
MHA / MCP / Spares
Project: Submersible Pump Maintainability Review

Location: Middle East

Description: During RAM study, it was identified long repair times

associated to submersible pumps (main drain vessel). This was due to the
challenges to perform the maintenance activity.

MES Solutions:

During the RAM study, it was identified long repair times associated to
submersible pumps. This maintenance delay happens due to the
philosophy to perform the maintenance only when both submersible
pumps have failed.

RCM studies were reviewed and a specific maintenance procedure

(MCP) was developed to support the maintainers to perform the
maintenance tasks of the submersible pumps. Troubleshooting has been
implemented.

Further development of the MHA and SPIR, appropriate maintenance

tools and spares were adjusted to support the maintenance task activity.
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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA)
Reliability Centred Maintenance (RCM)

1. What are the functions and the associated

performance standards of the asset in its present
operating context (functions)?

2. In what ways can it fail to fulfil its functions

(functional failures)?

3. What causes each functional failure (failure

mode)?

4. What happens when each failure occurs (failure

effects)?

5. In what way does each failure matter (failure

consequences)?

6. What should be done to predict or prevent each

failure (proactive tasks and task intervals)?

7. What should be done if a suitable proactive task

cannot be found (default actions)?
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Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA)
Curve - Maintainability

Planned Maintenance (PM) Cost includes labour and equipment required.

This will capture any incipient failures.
Corrective Maintenance Cost includes costs associated with downtime,
repair crews, equipment required and parts required.

Total Cost (t) = CM cost (t) + PM cost (t)

Cost

Optimum
PM

Maintenance Frequency
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Maintenance Craft Procedures (MCP)
Equipment Moveable Systems (EMS)
Mechanical Handling Assessment (MHA)
Guideline for the field technician to perform PM Tasks.
Shall be developed in-line with the RCM/RBI.
Clear procedure, safety requirements (such as Job
Safety Analysis) and spare parts/special tools required.
3D Model Analysis.
Sufficient plant space is allocated for repair (in-situ),
disassembly, lifting and moving activities (maintenance
and operations).
Weight, size of equipment, transit routes, crane access,
etc.
Handling activities.
Lay down areas and loads routing.

Component Tasks Freq.

T1) Temperature measurement using optical pyrometer. Once a week

Coils (for radiation T2) Visual inspection by inspection team (inspection displays window). Once a Shift
and convection) T3) Operating parameters. Every 2 hours
T4) Coil inspection plan. Scheduled Turn.
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Spare Parts Interchangeability Records (SPIR)

Materials and spares are held in a permanent warehouse. Mechanical Seal Types Impeller Types

Centralisation of Data.

Appropriate Quality System to ensure QA/QC requirements

are specified for each spare or consumable purchased to
maximise safety and minimise waste.

Location of the vendor supplier.

Bearings Gaskets
Stocking levels can be derived by economic or availability
analysis (consistent with RAM Model and Performance
Standard requirements and assumptions).

Stocking levels to be defined using combined expertise of

vendors and maintenance personnel.

Wherever is possible the stock of material shall be covered

by priced material supply contracts in order to expedite
resupply.

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CMMS
PM Plus
Project: Fertilizer Plant

Location: Middle East

Description: CMMS maintenance strategy data review (Oracle)

MES Solutions:

Identify the improvement required for historical records, work request

and work order release

Evaluation of usage of Oracle by planning, maintenance, and reliability

users feedbacks like leading and lagging KPIs etc.

Recommendations to update the CMMS layout were provided based

on PM Plus outcome.

Data entry method has been updated (breakdown of downtime).

Opportunistic Maintenance to be treated as Suspended data.

Inspection data (intervals, type and results of each inspection), etc

uploaded to Oracle.

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Computerised Maintenance Management System (CMMS)
PM Plus

Plant Maintenance Engineering Software

SAP PM database is replicated within PM Plus

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PM Plus
High level data model

Import of raw data from EPCs data deliverables

Asset Register Data Build-Up

SCE Identification Process support

FMECA Analysis support

SIL/SIF Analysis support

Tracking of National Safety Regulations

Material Master Data Build-Up and Interchangeability

Plant Maintenance Data Build-Up

Multi-scenario Workload Analysis

10 Yrs. Maintenance Activities Look-ahead Analysis

Data Migration to SAP PM or to IBM Maximo

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MES Contact Details

Contact Us
UK Office
Contact: Mr. Fabio Oshiro
Address: Monaco Engineering Solutions Ltd., 1 Pixham End, Dorking, Surrey,
RH4 1GB, UK
Telephone: +44(0) 1372 227 997
Fax: +44(0) 1306 884 325
Website: www.mes-international.com
Enquiries: mes.info@mes-international.com

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Abstract (Questions?)

Due to the declining oil prices over the past years, the
demand from the upstream market for Safety and
Reliability projects has drastically declined. There has
been a steady focus in downstream projects within
refineries and petrochemicals. To adapt for this scenario,
a fast transition from the upstream to downstream
technologies has occurred. Significant efforts are being
made to optimise performance and availability of
refineries during this market downturn.

The presentation will look at the application of reliability

studies and how they have been used to address
reliability issues in the downstream sector. There will be
particular focus on a refinery/petrochemical case
study. Additionally, attention will be drawn to the Fabio Oshiro
operational phase, where a link is made between IT
systems such as CMMS projects and Asset Performance
Management.

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