School Lunches Aff NDI

School Lunches Policy 1AC

 Plan Text 1AC
Plan:
The United States federal government should enforce the Healthy, Hunger-Free
Kids Act of 2010.
 Academics Performance Advantage 1AC
Contention One is Academic Performance:
Trump is rolling back the Hunger-Free Kids act that is leading to less nutritious
school meals and undermines students academic performance by impeding
students cognitive, physical, and behavioral development. The plan is
necessary to enforce the original act and prevent rollback.
Brody, Health Columnist at NYT, 6/5/2017
Jane, Feeding Young Minds: The Importance of School Lunches
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/05/well/feeding-young-minds-the-importance-of-school-
lunches.html

After major improvements championed by the Obama

But current problems with school lunch go far beyond shaming innocent children.

administration in the nutritional value of school meals were already underway, the Republican-dominated House of Representatives and now the Trump
administration have begun to undermine them. In 2010, spurred by the advocacy of Michelle Obama, Congress enacted the
Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act, revamping the nations school lunch program to increase servings
of vegetables, fruits and whole grains, provide age-appropriate calories, remove dangerous trans fats and limit levels of
sodium. Schools were given incentives in the form of meal reimbursement funds to prompt them to participate. Alas, in the fiscal-year 2015 Agriculture Appropriations bill, the House included waivers allowing
schools that had a six-month net loss of revenue for any reason to opt out of providing the healthier meals outlined in the 2010 act, Dr. Jennifer Woo Baidal, a pediatrician affiliated with Columbia University

College of Physicians and Surgeons, wrote in The New England Journal of Medicine. Now, just days into his tenure as Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue, former governor of Georgia, rolled
back the timetable by at least three years for reducing the high levels of salt in school lunches .
The rollback will also allow schools to serve refined grains and 1-percent-fat flavored milk,
instead of nonfat. Will progress on vegetables and fruits, calories and other fats be next on the chopping block? Providing adequate amounts of
nutritious food in schools is more important than many realize . Students who eat regular,
healthy meals are less likely to be tired , are more attentive in class, and retain more information ,
Sean Patrick Corcoran, associate professor of economics and education policy at New York
Universitys Steinhardt School of Culture, Education and Human Development, told The Atlantic. In fact, well-designed studies have
demonstrated that students at schools that contract with a healthy school lunch vendor score
higher on statewide achievement tests, Michael L. Anderson of the University of California, Berkeley, and
colleagues reported in April. They showed a 4-percentile improvement in test scores above those
achieved in schools with less healthy meals. While this effect is modest in magnitude, the
relatively low cost of healthy vendors when compared to in-house meal preparation makes this
a very cost-effective way to raise test scores , the researchers concluded. In Minnesota, where 10 percent of
households are considered food insecure and one child in six risks hunger, Wilder Research reported in 2014 that improved
school nutrition is a major component of Minnesotas Statewide Health Improvement
Program . The Amherst H. Wilder Foundation, in St. Paul, described studies showing that simply providing free breakfast
can result in better school attendance , improved behavior and concentration and better academic
performance . Clearly, an expansive food program at schools like Harding Senior High bears replication nationwide, not cutbacks. Nutrition can affect learning
through three channels: physical development (e.g., sight), cognition (e.g., concentration, memory), and behavior (e.g.,
hyperactivity), the Berkeley team wrote. For example, they explained, diets high in trans and saturated fats have a negative impact on

learning and memory, reducing substances in the body that support cognitive processing and
increasing the risk of neurological dysfunction .
This spills over hindering cognitive development in elementary and high
school creates an irreversible development issue that directly impedes long-
term success.
Nyaradi, Dr. @ University of Notre Dame School of Medicine, 2013
Anett, The role of nutrition in children's neurocognitive development, from pregnancy through
childhood 3/26, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3607807/

Cognition represents a complex set of higher mental functions subserved by the brain, and
includes attention, memory, thinking, learning, and perception (Bhatnagar and Taneja, 2001). Cognitive
development in pre-schoolers is predictive of later school achievement (Tramontana et al., 1988; Clark et al., 2010; Engle, 2010).
As Ross and Mirowsky (1999) state: Schooling builds human capital - skills, abilities, and
resourceswhich ultimately shapes health and well-being. Indeed, more education has been
linked to better jobs, higher income , higher socio-economic status , better health care access
and housing , better lifestyle , nutrition, and physical activity (Florence et al., 2008), which are all well-known health
determinants. Education increases an individual's sense of personal control and self-esteem;
these factors have also been shown to influence better health behavior (Ross and Mirowsky, 1999; Logi Kristjnsson
et al., 2010). Academic achievement is important for future personal health, and is therefore a

significant concern for public health . Cognitive development is influenced by many factors,
including nutrition. There is an increasing body of literature that suggests a connection
between improved nutrition and optimal brain function . Nutrients provide building blocks
that play a critical role in cell proliferation , DNA synthesis , neurotransmitter and hormone
metabolism, and are important constituents of enzyme systems in the brain (Bhatnagar and Taneja, 2001;
Lozoff and Georgieff, 2006; Zeisel, 2009; De Souza et al., 2011; Zimmermann, 2011). Brain development is faster in the early years of
life compared to the rest of the body (Benton, 2010a), which may make it more vulnerable to dietary
deficiencies . In this literature review, we assess the current research evidence for a link between nutritional intake in pregnancy and childhood and children's
cognitive development. We first discuss individual micronutrients and single aspects of diet, which represents earlier research in this area. We next consider the more
encompassing aspects of diet, which have emerged as researchers became more interested in diet as a comprehensive measurement. The most recent research trend in this
area suggests a broader analysis of the role of nutrition in neurocognitive development, which we offer here in comparison to previous reviews (Black, 2003b; Bellisle, 2004;
Stevenson, 2006; Georgieff, 2007; Benton, 2010a). Brain development in humans The understanding of the functional and structural development of the human brain has
emerged from a range of methodologies (including clinical lesion and experimental animal studies) and lately as a result of greatly improved neuroimaging methods, in particular
Positron Emission Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) (Levitt, 2003; Uddin et al., 2010). Brain development is a temporally extended and complex process, with
different parts and functions of the brain developing at different times (Grossman et al., 2003). By 5 weeks after conception in humans, the anterior-posterior and dorsal-ventral
axes of the neural tube have already developed (Levitt, 2003). The cortical plate (which is the forerunner of the cerebral cortex) and some inter-neuronal connections form from
8 to 16 weeks of gestation (Kostovi et al., 2002; Levitt, 2003). From 24 weeks of gestation until the perinatal period, the neurons in the cortical plate die and are replaced by
more mature cortical neurons. During this time, significant refinement in neural connections take place (Levitt, 2003). From 34 weeks post-conception until 2 years of age, peak

By preschool age, synaptic density

synapse development, and significant brain growth occurs (Huttenlocher and Dabholkar, 1997; Levitt, 2003).

has reached the adult level. The myelination of some parts of the brain (particularly those that control higher
cognitive functions, such as the frontal lobes) continues well into adolescence, whilst myelination occurs earlier in

other parts of the brain that coordinate more primary functions (Toga et al., 2006). Although the gray matter (which
contains the bodies of nerve cells) reaches asymptote by the age of 711 in different regions of the brain, it is thought that the growth of the white matter (which represents

Studies have shown that the maturation of specific brain areas

axonal nerve tracts) continues beyond 20 years of age.

during childhood is associated with development of specific cognitive functions such as

language , reading , and memory (Nagy et al., 2004; Deutsch et al., 2005; Giedd et al., 2010). The development of the frontal
lobes, which are believed to control higher cognitive functions (including planning, sequencing and self-regulation),
appears to occur in growth spurts during the first 2 years of life, and then again between 7 and
9 years of age and also around 15 years of age (Thatcher, 1991; Bryan et al., 2004). The development of some subcortical structures including
the basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus (which are also centrally involved in some mediating higher cognitive functions, including memory, executive functions, and
emotion) also continues until late adolescence. In addition, a meta-analysis has confirmed a connection between the size of the hippocampus and memory performance during

Overall, the research evidence suggests that cognitive

brain development in children and young adults (Van Petten, 2004).

development is strongly connected with micro and macro-anatomical changes which take place
throughout childhood (Levitt, 2003; Herlenius and Lagercrantz, 2004; Ghosh et al., 2010). Individual brain development follows
a genetic program which is influenced by environmental factors including nutrition (Bryan et al., 2004; Toga
et al., 2006; Giedd et al., 2010). Environmental influences may modify gene expression through epigenetic mechanisms, whereby gene function is altered through the processes
of DNA methylation, histone modification and the modulating effect of non-coding RNAs, without the alteration of the gene sequence per se. These epigenetic factors can cause

long lasting or even heritable changes in biological programs (Levi and Sanderson, 2004; Rosales et al., 2009; Murgatroyd and Spengler, 2011; Lillycrop and Burdge, 2012). It
has been shown in animal and more recently in human studies that nutrition is one of the most salient
environmental factors, and that nutrition can have a direct effect on gene expression
(Levi and Sanderson, 2004; Rosales et al., 2009; Attig et al., 2010; Lillycrop and Burdge, 2011; Jimnez-Chillarn et al., 2012). One of the first and best known human studies in

the offspring of mothers

the rapidly growing field of Nutritional Epigenomics relates to the Dutch Hunger Winter during the 1940's in which

exposed to famine during pregnancy had an increased risk of cardiovascular, kidney, lung, and
metabolic disorders and reduced cognitive functions (Roseboom et al., 2006; De Rooij et al., 2010). More specifically, evidence has
been obtained of hypo- and hyper-methylated DNA segments from the blood cells of the affected individuals (Heijmans et al., 2008). Evidence suggests that

the timing of nutritional deficiencies can significantly affect brain development . For example,
it is well known that folic acid deficiency between 21 and 28 days after conception (when the neural tube closes) predisposes the foetus to a congenital malformation, called a

neural tube defect. Hence, this is a critical period, because during that time an irreversible change in the brain structure
and function occurs if there is inadequate folic acid present (Blencowe et al., 2010). A critical period is a specific period within a sensitive timeframe
(Knudsen, 2004). A sensitive period tends to reflect a broader timeframe; during such a developmental period the brain is more sensitive to specific interventions. However,
skills and abilities can still be acquired outside this time period, albeit with less proficiency (Knudsen, 2004). An example is that deaf children who receive cochlear implants
within a sensitive period for brain development (i.e., before the age of 35 years) show better language development than those who receive a cochlear implant after this period
(Penhune, 2011). Since rapid brain growth occurs during the first 2 years of life (and by the age of 2 the brain reaches 80% of its adult weight), this period of life may be

Adolescence is also a significant and sensitive

particularly sensitive to deficiencies in diet (Bryan et al., 2004; Lenroot and Giedd, 2006).

developmental period, with research indicating that structural reorganization, brain and
cognitive maturation and in particular major developments in the prefrontal cortex take place
during puberty (Luna and Sweeney, 2001; Sisk, 2004; Peper et al., 2009; Asato et al., 2010; Blakemore et al., 2010).

Healthy lunches are the biggest factor for student success the best medical
studies prove that unhealthy lunches directly undermine academic
performance and that the aff is necessary to promote an optimal learning
environment.
Anderson, Professor of Agriculture and Resource Economics @ UC Berkley, 2017
Michael, How the quality of school lunch affects students academic performance 5/3
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2017/05/03/how-the-quality-of-
school-lunch-affects-students-academic-performance/

In 2010 signed the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act. The main goal of the law was to raise
, President Barack Obama

the minimum nutritional standards for public school lunches served as part of the National
School Lunch Program. The policy discussion surrounding the new law centered on the underlying health reasons for offering more nutritious school lunches, in particular, concern over the number of children who are

the debate over the new law involved very little

overweight. The Centers for Disease Control estimates that one in five children in the United States is obese. Surprisingly,

discussion as to whether providing a more nutritious school lunch could improve student
learning A lengthy medical literature examines the link between diet and cognitive
.

development, and diet and cognitive function The medical literature focuses on the biological .

and chemical mechanisms regarding how specific nutrients and compounds are thought to
affect physical development what is lacking in the medical
(e.g., sight), cognition (e.g., concentration, memory), and behavior (e.g., hyperactivity). Nevertheless,

literature is direct evidence on how nutrition impacts educational achievement. We attempt to

fill this gap in a new study that measures the effect of offering healthier public school lunches
on end of year academic test scores for public school students in California. The study period
covers five academic years and includes all public schools in the state that report test
(2008-2009 to 2012-2013)

scores (about 9,700 schools, mostly elementary and middle schools). Rather than focus on changes in national nutrition standards, we instead focus on school-specific differences in lunch quality over time. Specifically, we take advantage of the fact that
schools can choose to contract with private companies of varying nutritional quality to prepare the school lunches. About 12 percent of California public schools contract with a private lunch company during our study period. School employees completely prepare
the meals in-house for 88 percent of the schools. To determine the quality of different private companies, nutritionists at the Nutrition Policy Institute analyzed the school lunch menus offered by each company. The nutritional quality of the menus was scored using
the Healthy Eating Index (HEI). The HEI is a continuous score ranging from zero to 100 that uses a well-established food component analysis to determine how well food offerings (or diets) match the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. The HEI is the Department of
Agricultures preferred measure of diet quality, and the agency uses it to examine relationships between diet and health-related outcomes, and to assess the quality of food assistance packages, menus, and the US food supply. The average HEI score for the U.S.

We measure the
population is 63.8, while the median HEI score in our study is 59.9. In other words, the typical private company providing pu blic school lunch in CA is a bit less healthy than the average American diet.

relationship between having a lunch prepared by a standard or healthy relative (below median HEI) (above median HEI) company

to in-house preparation by school staff. Our model estimates the effect of lunch quality on
student achievement using year-to-year changes between in-house preparation of school meals
and outside vendors of varying menu quality We control for grade, school, and year , within a given school.

factors, as well as specific student and school characteristics including race, English learner, low
family income, school budget, and student-to-teacher ratios. We find that in years when a
school contracts with a healthy lunch company, students at the school score better on end-of-
year academic tests. On average, student test scores are 0.03 to 0.04 standard deviations higher (about 4 percentile points). Not only that, the test score
increases are about 40 percent larger for students who qualify for reduced-price or free school
lunches . These students are also the ones who are most likely to eat the school lunches. Moreover, we find no evidence that contracting with a private company to provide healthier meals changes the number of school lunches sold. This is important

for two reasons. First, it reinforces our conclusion that the test score improvements we measure are being driven by differences in food quality, and not food quantity. A number of recent studies have shown that providing (potentially) hungry kids with greater
access to food through the National School Lunch Program can lead to improved test scores. We are among the very few studies to focus on quality, rather than food quantity (i.e., calories). Second, some critics of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act worried that by
raising the nutritional standards of school lunches that fewer children would eat the food, thereby unintentionally harming the students that the law was designed to help. Our results provide some reassurance that this is not likely to be the case. Finally, we also
examine whether healthier school lunches lead to a reduction in the number of overweight students. We follow previous literature and use whether a students body composition (i.e. body fat) is measured t o be outside the healthy zone on the Presidential Fitness
Test. We find no evidence that having a healthier school lunch reduces the number of overweight students. There are a few possible interpretations of this finding, including that a longer time period may be necessary to observe improvements in health, the measure
of overweight is too imprecise, or that students are eating the same amount of calories due to National School Lunch Program calorie meal targets. Education researchers have emphasized the need and opportunity for cost-effective education policies. While the test
score improvements are modest in size, providing healthier school lunches is potentially a very cost-effective way for a school to improve student learning. Using actual meal contract bid information we estimate that it costs approximately an additional $80 per
student per year to contract with one of the healthy school lunch providers relative to preparing the meals completely in-house. While this may seem expensive at first, compare the cost-effectiveness of our estimated test score changes with other policies. A
common benchmark is the Tennessee Star experiment, which found a large reduction in the class size of grades K-3 by one-third correlated with a 0.22 standard deviation test score increase. This reduction cost over $2,000 when the study was published in 1999, and
would be even more today. It is (rightfully) expensive to hire more teachers, but scaling this benefit-cost ratio to achieve a bump in student learning gains equal to our estimates, we find class-size increases would be at least five times more expensive than healthier

The value of providing healthier public school

lunches. Thus, increasing the nutritional quality of school meals appears to be a promising, cost-effective way to improve student learning.

lunches is true even without accounting for the potential short- and long-term health benefits ,

such as a reduction in childhood obesity and the development of healthier lifelong eating
habits. Our results cast doubt on the wisdom of the recently announced proposal by Agriculture Secretary Sonny

Perdue to roll back some of the school lunch health requirements implemented as part of the
Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act .

Declining tests scores undermines US competitiveness and economic strength

Yu, Special Advisor to Turnaround for Children, 2016
Eric, Putting PISA Results to the Test 12/19 https://www.turnaroundusa.org/2015-pisa-
analysis/

The consequences of the U.S.s weak PISA performance are already being seen in the countrys
workforce. The OECD conducts a survey of workforce skills (the Program for International Assessment of Adult Competencies, or
PIAAC) that is similar to PISA for adult workers, measuring two key skill areas: literacy and numeracy. In the most recent PIAAC

survey released in June, the U.S. ranks 17th in literacy and 27th in numeracy among 34 nations and territories
surveyed, similar to the PISA rankings.Exhibit E: U.S. workforce literacy and numeracy rankings, as of 2016A deeper dive into the data shows an even more concerning trend:

The U.S. adult skill rank is especially low among younger cohorts of workers. While older (55-65) U.S. workers
skills exceed their peers in most countries, U.S. 16-24-year-olds trail nearly all countries.Exhibit F: Countries trailing U.S. adult workforce skills, by age cohortUnfortunately,

this trend suggests that U.S. workforce competitiveness has been declining over time , with the
most recent high school graduates ranking near the bottom globally .Exhibit G: Coutnries trailing U.S. adult workforce
skills, by educational attainment For the U.S. to maintain its economic competitiveness , Americans with a high
school education or below must be able to demonstrate the higher order literacy and
numeracy skills that todays workforce demands.

And malnutrition alone creates a cycle of human capital deficits that becomes
an intergenerational issue.
Jeng, Research and Policy Fellow at Feeding America, 2009
Karen, Child Food Insecurity: The Economic Impact on our Nation
https://www.nokidhungry.org/sites/default/files/child-economy-study.pdf

A persons earning capacity is determined largely by educational attainment in the U.S. and
Lifetime Earnings

elsewhere. When human capital deficits (e.g., health problems, including those correlated with food insecurity)

interfere with cognitive development , achievement of school readiness, learning or academic achievement, they can impact educational
attainment and reduce ones earning capacity. Reduced earning capacity, in turn, reduces that
persons lifetime earnings, and their economic contribution to the social and economic
systems . Such impairments of one persons earning capacity do not only impact that person and
her/his contribution to society, they also can impact their childrens human capital accumulation
and earning capacity. This is the pattern suggested by the term cycle of poverty, in which the impacts
of one generations poverty present barriers to the next generations achievement of its potential (Karp, 1993).180 24 Table 2 shows median annual income levels for people
ages 25 years and above with different levels of educational attainment in the U.S. in 2007, along with the net present value of simplified hypothetical earnings streams at these
levels over 40 years (out to retirement at age 65 years). The median and lifetime earnings for earners with professional degrees (medical, legal, etc.) are nearly five times as
great as those for earners without a high school degree. These lifetime earning-stream estimates are very conservative since they do not include pay raises or investment

they illustrate the magnitude of differences in lifetime earnings arising from

earnings over the 40-year period. Yet

different levels of human capital accumulation. They also illustrate the magnitude of forgone
income that can result from failure to attain ones academic potential. Food insecurity problems
have been shown to adversely impact school performance and academic achievement . To the
degree that food insecurity is a factor inhibiting educational attainment, it also limits lifetime
earnings and the contribution such forgone earnings would make as they multiplied and
rippled through the economy .

Economic competitiveness is necessary for overall US power projection checks

escalatory conflict and deters China and terror.
Banks, former CIA analyst and diplomat, 2016
George, executive vice president of the American Council for Capital Formation, Trump's
Foreign Policy Will Be Proven Right
9/25http://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2016/09/15/donald_trump_foreign_policy_right_
economy_112046.html

economic statistics tell a different story. In a period of about 15 years, Americas share of global
But basic

manufacturing has dropped from 28 percent to roughly 17 percent . The trade deficit has
increased 38 percent over the same time period -- from $360 billion to $500 billion. Meanwhile, average economic growth has
slowed from over 3 percent to a meager 2 percent , and the federal debt has skyrocketed to an
unsustainable 100 percent of gross domestic product. In Trumps assessment, Americas power flows directly from its economic
strength . The ability of the United States to influence other nations is a result of the
competitive advantage held by its industries. Therefore, growth in the trade deficit is a clear
indicator of American decline, especially when Chinese exports are increasing . The
manufacturing and technology sectors are incredibly important industries to U.S. power and
prestige in Trumps view. Regaining Americas place as a heavy manufacturing leader is paramount for Trump. Renegotiating trade deals or
effectively enforcing them to protect American competitiveness is necessary to reversing the relative
decline of U.S. industry and the leakage of jobs overseas. Perhaps more important are Trumps calls for the reform of a burdensome bureaucratic federal
state that cost the economy more than $2 trillion in 2012, according to a study commissioned by the National Association of Manufacturers. Trump also wants to see the reform

Trump views growing the economy

of our antiquated tax system, which automatically puts American companies at a competitive disadvantage.

as crucial to rebuilding a military capable of meeting the challenges America will face in
coming decades -- particularly from a resurgent and expansionist China . Trump believes that the
United States must be realistic in its approach to foreign policymaking. It should avoid nation-
building, recognizing that attempts to force Western-style democracy on societies that reject or are not prepared for it are futile, wastes resources that should be spent
on domestic needs, and results in the needless deaths of countless Americans and foreign nationals. Trump views the Iraq War and the

subsequent military intervention in Libya as disasters that only destabilized the Middle East and
further fanned the flames of terrorism. Theres no question that Trump sees Islamist terror as the most
immediate threat to America. Trump made this clear in a recent speech where he said that all actions should be oriented around this goal, and any
country which shares this goal will be our ally. Its through the same lens that he views Russia. For Trump, the enemy of our enemy is

our friend -- at least until our mutual enemy is destroyed. Trump takes a similarly cautious approach to China. Trump has called for

better relations with Beijing on multiple occasions, but he understands that Chinas increasing economic power is

translating into greater military capabilities in the region. Trump is aware of the importance of keeping Russia as a counterbalance
to Chinas growing dominance. Dont ever let China and Russia get together, Trump has said. Hes right. The Trump Doctrine appears

uninformed only to those who fail to see that the competitiveness of U.S. industry is key to
Americas ability to project power , and that the challenges of Islamist terror and the rise of
China require a review of our strategic alliances and policies, which were largely shaped by
the Cold War. While these factors may not be apparent to the foreign policy establishment now, Trump will likely be proven right
with time. We can only hope that the next president will be someone who understands the
need to adapt to a changing world before its too late.
 Health Advantage 1AC
Contention Two is Health:
Implementation of the HFKA is necessary to develop healthy eating habits in
kids rollback entrenches poor eating habits
Washington Post, 5/13/2017
Dont give up on healthful school lunches https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dont-
give-up-on-healthful-school-lunches/2017/05/12/c8137b58-3069-11e7-9534-
00e4656c22aa_story.html?utm_term=.07259723a29c

Getting them to eat healthy foods can be even harder. But the
GETTING KIDS to eat, as any parent will attest, can be a struggle.

solution is not for adults to give up on good nutrition and let them eat whatever they want. That is the unfortunate
message sent by the Trump administrations decision to slow implementation of stricter
nutrition standards for school meals that were championed by then-first lady Michelle Obama. With obesity a
critical problem for millions of American children, efforts to make school menus healthier should not be
delayed. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue announced this month, one week after being confirmed, a rollback of some nutrition
regulations mandated as part of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010. Schools wont be required to lower the
sodium content of breakfasts and lunches served to some 31million schoolchildren until 2020, waivers will continue to be given to schools

to let them opt out of having to serve whole-grain enriched foods, and they will be permitted to
serve chocolate and flavored milk as long as its reduced-fat. We have to balance sodium and whole grain content with
palatability, Mr. Perdue said. He said schools should give students more of what they like to eat and that too much school food ends up in the trash. Waste is an issue, but that

peer-reviewed studies have found, contrary to

is a long-standing American problem not unique to school cafeterias. Moreover, some

widely circulated anecdotal assertions, that the revised meal standards and policies appear to
have lowered, not increased, food waste. In any event, as Ken Cook of the Environmental
Working Group pointed out, Just because children would rather eat heavily salted processed
foods at school doesnt mean they should. There are strategies that have proved successful at
encouraging better eating habits, from cutting up fruit and setting up salad bars to involving
children in food preparation to simply giving them more time to eat.

The plan is necessary to solve continued implementation cements better

nutrition habits that follow kids into adulthood.
Think Progress, 2015
Americans Actually Like Michelle Obamas Healthier School Lunches 8/19
https://thinkprogress.org/americans-actually-like-michelle-obamas-healthier-school-lunches-
d29745df6b35

A growing body of research support such calls to keep the status quo . Last year, researchers at Ohio
State University found that high consumption of fast foodoften replete with salt and sugar and low in calcium, iron, Vitamin C, and
zinccauses some memory loss and slows down cognitive development in children. An unbalanced diet

can also widen waistlines, especially among young people. Rates of childhood obesity have more than doubled in
the last 30 years, bringing with it additional instances of cancer and higher hospitalization costs. A nutritious
breakfast and hour of physical activity has been proven to improve brain function, but some parents dont take these words to heart: 90 percent of homemade school lunches

include deserts, chips, and sweetened nondairy products. Experts say a balanced diet that includes bread, fruits and vegetables, dairy, meat, and fish
can ward off excessive weight and pave the way for positive health outcomes . For some
Americans, however, its hard to prepare healthy meals because they live in areas with high
food insecurity, where the nearest grocery store is more than a mile away. Funds from the
Supplemental Nutritional Program havent sufficed in connecting low-income people with high
quality meals. Additionally, parents unpredictable work schedules may preclude parents from
engaging their children for dinner, let alone preparing a healthy meal. Thats why members of the American
Heart Association (AHA) have spoken out in recent weeks in support of keeping , and perhaps strengthening,
the requirements outlined in the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act . They particularly point to high
levels of sodium found in frozen and junk food that, when ingested consistently, can lead to
heart disease or stroke. Our children are healthier because of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids
Act, Kristy Anderson, government relations manager at the American Heart Association, told an NBC Los Angeles affiliate. We know that the more
children are exposed to nutritious foods, the more they accept and like eating healthyand it
sets them up for a lifetime of healthy eating habits. So our message is stay the course.

And rollback locks in childhood obesity rates.

Landa, 5/23/2017
Breanna, Herald News, Letter to the Editor: Childhood obesity must be addressed
http://www.fontanaheraldnews.com/opinion/letter-to-the-editor-childhood-obesity-must-be-
addressed/article_b925ed7a-1001-11e7-b46d-43560b62dfeb.html

Childhood obesity was a trending topic under the Obama Administration. With one in five
children battling obesity, this topic deserves to be addressed. The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of
2010 created nutritional guidelines to combat this problem and provides access to free meals
for students in low income homes. Currently, various policies face change with a new presidential administration. It is critical for
Americans to stand firm in the progress of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act, as it directly
impacts the youth of the nation. Critics of the program have cited an increase in food waste since the passage of the legislation. Further, some
reports have indicated students' disapproval of the new health standards. The transition from greasy lunches to whole grains and

fruits may take some adjusting and recent reports have actually shown a newfound approval of school lunches. Implementing these
new nutritional standards has proven to be instrumental in creating a healthy and productive
learning environment for students nationwide . The repercussions of childhood obesity include
both short and long term effects on the health and development of our youth . It is imperative
that Americans stand firm in the progress of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act and continue
to ensure the healthy development for the children of America .

And obesity undermines effectiveness of vaccines that collapses herd

immunity and leads to reemergence of dangerous vectors.
Baker, The Week Contributor, 4/9/2017
Beth, The enormous economic costs of America's obesity epidemic
http://theweek.com/articles/690701/enormous-economic-costs-americas-obesity-epidemic

Other potential costs are harder to quantify but no less worrisome, for patients, taxpayers, and society at large. For example, researchers
are
discovering that vaccines may not be as effective in those who are obese. Studies have found
that obese patients do not respond as well to the HIV vaccine and the flu vaccine, leaving them
more vulnerable to infection and to passing those diseases on to others . Over time, it's
possible that a community's " herd immunity " could suffer, creating the conditions for the
return of diseases that were once controlled through immunization and that could affect us
all , according to an analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

Independently malnutrition undermines immune system development leads

to an increased risk of disease contraction and spread of antibiotic resistant
diseases.
Yale School of Public Health, 2017
Nutrition and Infectious Disease https://publichealth.yale.edu/emd/research/nutrition/
Malnutrition affects over a billion people worldwide, ranging from the extremes of stunting and obesity, to the less visible micronutrient deficiencies, such as vitamin A, iron and

Malnutrition increases morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases , and

zinc.

supplementation with micronutrients can decrease morbidity and mortality. Given the
prevalence of infectious diseases and the spread of drug resistant pathogens , alternative
approaches to decreasing morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases and delaying the
spread of drug resistance are critical for addressing the global burden of disease .
Improvements in nutritional status may provide such an approach . Careful
characterization of the relationship between host nutritional status and infections is critical for
evaluating the role of nutritional status in susceptibility to infectious diseases and response to
treatment.

Pandemics risk extinction.

Yaneer Bar-Yam 16, Founding President of the New England Complex Systems Institute,
Transition to extinction: Pandemics in a connected world, NECSI (July 3, 2016),
http://necsi.edu/research/social/pandemics/transition
Watch as one of the more aggressivebrighter redstrains rapidly expands. After a time it goes extinct leaving a black region. Why does it go extinct? The answer is that it

That the rapidly spreading pathogens die

spreads so rapidly that it kills the hosts around it. Without new hosts to infect it then dies out itself.

out has important implications for evolutionary research which we have talked about elsewhere [17]. In the research I want to
discuss here, what we were interested in is the effect of adding long range transportation [8]. This

includes natural means of dispersal as well as unintentional dispersal by humans, like adding
airplane routes, which is being done by real world airlines (Figure 2). When we introduce long range
transportation into the model, the success of more aggressive strains changes. They can use the
long range transportation to find new hosts and escape local extinction. Figure 3 shows that the more
transportation routes introduced into the model, the more higher aggressive pathogens are able to survive and spread. As we add more long range transportation, there

is a critical point at which pathogens become so aggressive that the entire host population dies.
The pathogens die at the same time, but that is not exactly a consolation to the hosts . We call this the phase transition to extinction

(Figure 4). With increasing levels of global transportation, human civilization may be approaching
such a critical threshold . In the paper we wrote in 2006 about the dangers of global transportation for pathogen evolution and pandemics [8], we
mentioned the risk from Ebola. Ebola is a horrendous disease that was present only in isolated villages in Africa. It was far away from the rest of the world only because of that
isolation. Since Africa was developing, it was only a matter of time before it reached population centers and airports. While the model is about evolution, it is really about which
pathogens will be found in a system that is highly connected, and Ebola can spread in a highly connected world. The traditional approach to public health uses historical
evidence analyzed statistically to assess the potential impacts of a disease. As a result, many were surprised by the spread of Ebola through West Africa in 2014. As the
 A key point about the phase transition to
connectivity of the world increases, past experience is not a good guide to future events.

extinction is its suddenness. Even a system that seems stable, can be destabilized by a few more
long-range connections, and connectivity is continuing to increase. So how close are we to the
tipping point? We dont know but it would be good to find out before it happens. While Ebola ravaged
three countries in West Africa, it only resulted in a handful of cases outside that region. One possible reason is that many of the airlines that fly to west Africa stopped or
reduced flights during the epidemic [9]. In the absence of a clear connection, public health authorities who downplayed the dangers of the epidemic spreading to the West
might seem to be vindicated. As with the choice of airlines to stop flying to west Africa, our analysis didnt take into consideration how people respond to epidemics. It does tell

unless we respond fast enough and well enough to stop the spread of future
us what the outcome will be

diseases, which may not be the same as the ones we saw in the past. As the world becomes more connected, the dangers
increase. Are people in western countries safe because of higher quality health systems? Countries like the U.S. have highly skewed networks of social interactions with
some very highly connected individuals that can be superspreaders. The chances of such an individual becoming infected may be low but events like a mass outbreak pose a

If a sick food service worker in an airport infects 100 passengers, or a

much greater risk if they do happen.

contagion event happens in mass transportation, an outbreak could very well prove
unstoppable .

And rising obesity rates overwhelms the healthcare system and prevents
effective healthcare innovations.
Cheney, HealthLeaders Media, 2015
Christopher, Cost of Obesity 'Will Wipe Out Healthcare' 8/9
http://www.medpagetoday.com/practicemanagement/practicemanagement/52986

Obesity weighs heavily on American health and wealth. Carrying extra pounds undermines
several major weight-bearing pillars of value-based healthcare , including disease prevention ,
population health management , and cost control . In interviews and email exchanges over the past week, a trio of obesity experts
helped me gauge the crisis and suggested ways to slash obesity rates. Jay H. Shubrook Jr., DO, a diabetes specialist and professor at

Touro University College of Osteopathic Medicine in Vallejo, CA, says the societal costs of obesity are becoming too great to

bear. " Our public health is at stake ," he says. "We will not make meaningful headway on the prevention and treatment of chronic disease until we
change the infrastructure that supports unhealthy habits. An immigrant from almost any other country who moves to the U.S. becomes at higher risk for diabetes once they live
here. We have a sedentary lifestyle with an abundance of high caloric foods at our disposal." Shubrook has been witnessing the impact of historically high obesity rates in his
patients for nearly two decades. Before moving to California this year, he served in several clinical, leadership, and academic positions at OhioHealth O'Bleness Hospital, a 132-
bed acute care facility in Athens, Ohio. In 2013, O'Bleness identified obesity and poor dietary infrastructure in Athens County as "areas of concern" in the organization's
Community Health Needs Assessment. In addition to pegging the adult obesity rate in Athens County at about 31%, the O'Bleness health needs assessment sounds an alarm over
limited access to healthy foods in low-income areas and an overly high percentage of fast food restaurants among the area's eateries. "Obesity is a crisis for two reasons,"

Shubrook says. " We are seeing lower life expectancy rates among our children, and we already know
we can't handle the economic impact of diabetes . It will wipe out healthcare." Otis Brawley, MD, chief
medical officer at the American Cancer Society, says obesity is one of the top cancer risk factors in the United States. "The combination of high caloric intake, obesity, and lack of
physical activity will surpass tobacco as the leading cause of cancer death within the next two decades. It is already a leading cause of heart disease, diabetes, and orthopedic

injury," he says. Poor dietary habits and high obesity rates threaten to cripple the healthcare
industry and the broader economy, Brawley says. "It is imperative that we reverse the trend, as
healthcare costs associated with [the obesity] epidemic are already dragging our economy down
and eventually will collapse our economy if it continues over the next several decades." Justin Noble, a
certified nutrition coach, children's book author, and co-founder of MyBodyVillage.com, says the healthcare industry will be unable to

"move the needle" on cost of services as long as obesity and other lifestyle-related health risk
factors remain out of control. "The main issue with healthcare in America is that it is focused on
treatment instead of prevention. Eighty-six percent of all healthcare spending in 2010 was for people with one or more chronic medical conditions.
The gross majority of these conditions are brought about by lack of exercise, poor diet, stress, smoking, and alcohol consumption. In a nutshell, these ailments are brought on by
the choices people make. If we put more effort into giving people the tools and the resources they need to make healthy choices, we will find ourselves paying less for the
diseases associated with these poor choices. Until that happens, I only see the needle moving up."
And a collapsing healthcare system prevents effective bioterror response
McClanahan 13 Carolyn, M.D., University of Mississippi, Five Reasons Not To Hold
Obamacare Hostage In The Government Shutdown
http://www.forbes.com/sites/carolynmcclanahan/2013/09/30/five-reasons-not-to-hold-
obamacare-hostage-in-the-government-shutdown/

we need to
The show down that could shut down our government is on, and Republicans are holding funding for Obamacare hostage in this event. However,

remind them there are many valuable provisions in the law that work to repair our broken
health care system . These good parts of the law need to move forward. By gutting the
funding, we put our entire health care system at risk. Granted, the insurance provisions will need repair, and this can be done
over time. Tonight, in the heat of the arguments, I share five reasons why Obamacare should not be held hostage to the Shutdown Showdown. Reason #1: The Affordable Care
Act begins repair of a decimated primary care system. Countries with a strong primary care system have much lower costs and healthier populations than what we experience in
the United States. Primary care doctors focus on wellness, prevention, and treat minor illnesses in a cost effective manner. Our fee for service payment methods and our
expensive medical training system pushed medical students away from choosing primary care and now we have a vast shortage of primary care doctors. The Affordable Care Act
provides better pay to primary care doctors and helps with loan repayment if a physician practices in an underserved area. Reason #2: The Affordable Care Act improves
prevention, wellness, and early care of chronic disease. We do a great job in the United States with taking care of serious illness, but really stink where it matters most
preventing illness from becoming serious in the first place. Insurance doesnt pay well to take care of serious illness early, and pays next to nothing for prevention. The
Affordable Care Act rewards physicians for providing preventive care, creates avenues to better coordinate care of chronic illness early in the course of disease, and has payment
incentives for patients to participate in improving their health. Reason #3: The Affordable Care Act moves us toward truly patient-centered medical care. Our health care system
is historically patriarchal you go to the doctor, he/she tells you what to do, and you go home and do it (or not.) With a patient centered approach, the focus in on providing
quality care that centers around the patients values. Quantity of care is no longer the goal. The Affordable Care Act has multiple pilot programs that test changes in delivery of

care and patient centered approaches. Reason #4: The Affordable Care Act improves our reaction to bioterrorist and mass
casualty events. Our public health system is funded at the whim of Congress. These folks are
responsible for protecting public health, preparing for the next bird flu, and responding to
bioterrorist threats . The law attempted to fund public health at a set amount each year. Unfortunately,
Congress has decreased funding promised by the Affordable Care Act year after year. I dread the day of the Contagion because we

will not be ready. We need to demand better and consistent funding for our public health.

Bioterror causes extinction

Anders Sandberg et al., James Martin Research Fellow, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford
University, "How Can We Reduce the Risk of Human Extinction?" BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC
SCIENTISTS, 9-9-08, http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/features/how-can-we-reduce-the-
risk-of-human-extinction, accessed 5-2-10.
The risks from anthropogenic hazards appear at present larger than those from natural ones. Although great progress has been
made in reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world, humanity is still threatened by the possibility of a global
thermonuclear war and a resulting nuclear winter. We may face even greater risks from emerging technologies. Advances
in
synthetic biology might make it possible to engineer pathogens capable of extinction-level
pandemics. The knowledge, equipment, and materials needed to engineer pathogens are more
accessible than those needed to build nuclear weapons. And unlike other weapons, pathogens
are self-replicating, allowing a small arsenal to become exponentially destructive. Pathogens
have been implicated in the extinctions of many wild species. Although most pandemics "fade out" by
reducing the density of susceptible populations, pathogens with wide host ranges in multiple species can reach even isolated
individuals.
The intentional or unintentional release of engineered pathogens with high
transmissibility, latency, and lethality might be capable of causing human extinction. While such an
event seems unlikely today, the likelihood may increase as biotechnologies continue to improve at a rate rivaling Moore's Law.
School Lunches K 1AC
 Plan Text 1AC
Plan:
The United States federal government should enforce the Healthy, Hunger-Free
Kids Act of 2010.
 Food Insecurity 1AC
Contention One is Food Insecurity:
Food insecurity is a socioeconomic issue that prohibits low income children and
children of color from receiving adequate healthy meals, resulting in physical
and mental health implications.
Meisenheimer, Policy Analyst at Center for the Study of Social Policy, 2016
Melany, Food Insecurity in Early Childhood 7/13
http://www.cssp.org/publications/general/document/Food-Insecurity-Early-Childhood.pdf

Because early childhood is such a crucial phase of physical and social-emotional development ,
food insecurity in the early years of life is particularly detrimental and can compound the
effects of other risk factors associated with poverty, such as reduced access to health care and unstable
or unsafe housing . Poor nutrition and food insecurity are associated with poorer physical and
mental health in all age groups , but in young children they can deeply affect well-being and
development in ways that can endure for a lifetime . Despite Americas overall wealth and agricultural abundance, a
significant proportion of the U.S. population struggles to consistently put enough nutritious food
on the table. Nationwide, 48.1 million people lived in food insecure households in 2014, meaning
that they were unable to consistently access enough nutritious food . Families with young children are particularly at
risk of food insecurity. While 14 percent of all households experienced food insecurity in 2014,2 among households with children under age 6, the proportion jumps to 20

Among households with children headed by a single woman, the figure jumps
percent , or 1 in 5 households.3

again to 35 percent , or more than 1 in 3 households.4 While poverty is a strong predictor of food
insecurity, food insecurity persists at income levels above the poverty line, meaning many
families with young children may struggle in the shadows. Forty-one percent of individuals living in poverty experienced food
insecurity in 2014,5 in addition to over 12 million people whose incomes were between 100 and 185 percent of the federal poverty line in 2014.6 Although these households are

Food security is foundational to overall

not officially considered poor, they can still struggle to provide adequate nutrition to their families.

health, wellness and economic stability and essential for children and families to thrive . As such,
its crucial that policymakers and service providers ensure that young children and their families
have access to good nutrition. Without food security, we cannot fully achieve the outcomes we desire for all children and families in our communities.
For this reason, it is worth examining the short-term and long-term options available to both policy makers and early childhood service providers. Food Insecurity in Early

Food insecurity does not impact all children equally,

Childhood Contributes to Inequitable Outcomes and Opportunities

contributing to an opportunity gap and racial disparities in outcomes . Children of color are
more likely to experience food insecurity than their white counterparts, meaning they are also
disproportionately impacted by the negative effects of poor nutrition on physical, mental and
social-emotional development in early childhood . In 2014:3 15 percent of children in white households lived with food insecurity
34 percent of children in black, non-Hispanic households lived with food insecurity 29 percent of children in Hispanic households lived with food insecurity 17 percent of
children in Other, non-Hispanic households lived with food insecurity By 2020 more than half of all children in the U.S. will be children of color,7 and already half of all children

Because of the close association

under five are children of color.8 In many localities across the U.S., this demographic shift took place years ago.

between nutrition and healthy physical, cognitive and social-emotional development, early
childhood providers and policymakers must consider the disproportionate impact food
insecurity has upon young children of color.
This is an apriori issue food insecurity in young children implicates their entire
lives and creates a cycle of poverty and social divisions.
Deeds, Policy Associate @ American Youth Policy Forum, 2015
Carly, Food for Thought: How Food Insecurity Affects a Childs Education 8/24
http://www.aypf.org/comprehensive-community-solutions-for-youth-success/food-for-thought-
how-food-insecurity-affects-a-childs-education/

Its easy to take for granted the basic daily functions like eating breakfast, lunch, and
Food Security and Health

dinner that have such a critical impact on our ability to function physically and intellectually. The amount, availability, and quality of food all
affect childrens health, as well as their brain development. Children who grow up in food
insecure households often lag behind their food-secure peers in terms of cognitive, emotional,
and physical development . Research indicates that food-insecure children are almost twice as
likely to be in fair or poor health when compared to food-secure children, and are significantly
more likely to be hospitalized . The most affordable food is often the most unhealthy especially in food
deserts, where finding healthy food at an affordable price can be particularly difficult. Food-insecure households are much more likely than food-secure households to report eating unhealthy foods. Food Security,

Aside from the mental and physical consequences of food insecurity, a childs
Socio-Emotional, and Behavioral Factors

social and emotional health are also at risk when he or she is not adequately nourished. This
can lead to behavioral issues that affect not only home life, but school life as well. Research
shows that mental health problems, such as depression , anxiety , and behavioral problems
among children (and their mothers) increase as food insecurity increases . Food insecurity often
prevents children from functioning normally in social settings due to a poorer physical quality
of life. Specifically, food-insecure students are often not fully engaged in daily activities such as
social interactions with peers at school. They also have greater difficulty getting along with other
students. By the time they are teenagers, food-insecure children are twice as likely as their peers to have seen a psychologist or to have been suspended. Food Security and Education In addition to the
cognitive, emotional, mental, and physical consequences of food insecurity and poor nutrition, a wide body of research indicates that these

consequences follow children into the classroom, often resulting in poor academic performance.
Children from homes with persistent food insecurity have shown smaller gains in both reading and math than their food-secure counterparts. Food-insecure children and teenagers have been shown to miss school

Food insecurity has been shown to reduce a childs

more frequently, and are more likely to repeat a grade than food-secure children.

chances of graduating from high school. Growing up food-insecure has consequences even
beyond K-12 education . Research shows that workers who experienced hunger* as children
are not as well prepared physically, mentally, emotionally or socially to perform effectively
in the contemporary workforce. There is no doubt that a child who grows up without
adequate nutrition will face significant barriers to academic achievement. The various physical,
behavioral, emotional, and cognitive costs of food insecurity make it extremely difficult for these
students to reach their full potential. Although programs like the National School Lunch Program and the Summer Food Service Program have been providing meals to
income-eligible students for years, research indicates they may not be enough on their own to mitigate the damaging effects of food insecurity on students.

And malnutrition during childhood uniquely inhibits critical human

development of children which leads to irreversible long term damage
Nyaradi, Dr. @ University of Notre Dame School of Medicine, 2013
Anett, The role of nutrition in children's neurocognitive development, from pregnancy through
childhood 3/26, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3607807/
Cognition represents a complex set of higher mental functions subserved by the brain, and
includes attention, memory, thinking, learning, and perception (Bhatnagar and Taneja, 2001). Cognitive
development in pre-schoolers is predictive of later school achievement (Tramontana et al., 1988; Clark et al., 2010; Engle, 2010).
As Ross and Mirowsky (1999) state: Schooling builds human capital - skills, abilities, and
resourceswhich ultimately shapes health and well-being. Indeed, more education has been
linked to better jobs, higher income , higher socio-economic status , better health care access
and housing , better lifestyle , nutrition, and physical activity (Florence et al., 2008), which are all well-known health
determinants. Education increases an individual's sense of personal control and self-esteem;
these factors have also been shown to influence better health behavior (Ross and Mirowsky, 1999; Logi Kristjnsson
et al., 2010). Academic achievement is important for future personal health, and is therefore a

significant concern for public health . Cognitive development is influenced by many factors,
including nutrition. There is an increasing body of literature that suggests a connection
between improved nutrition and optimal brain function . Nutrients provide building blocks
that play a critical role in cell proliferation , DNA synthesis , neurotransmitter and hormone
metabolism, and are important constituents of enzyme systems in the brain (Bhatnagar and Taneja, 2001;
Lozoff and Georgieff, 2006; Zeisel, 2009; De Souza et al., 2011; Zimmermann, 2011). Brain development is faster in the early years of
life compared to the rest of the body (Benton, 2010a), which may make it more vulnerable to dietary
deficiencies . In this literature review, we assess the current research evidence for a link between nutritional intake in pregnancy and childhood and children's
cognitive development. We first discuss individual micronutrients and single aspects of diet, which represents earlier research in this area. We next consider the more
encompassing aspects of diet, which have emerged as researchers became more interested in diet as a comprehensive measurement. The most recent research trend in this
area suggests a broader analysis of the role of nutrition in neurocognitive development, which we offer here in comparison to previous reviews (Black, 2003b; Bellisle, 2004;
Stevenson, 2006; Georgieff, 2007; Benton, 2010a). Brain development in humans The understanding of the functional and structural development of the human brain has
emerged from a range of methodologies (including clinical lesion and experimental animal studies) and lately as a result of greatly improved neuroimaging methods, in particular
Positron Emission Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) (Levitt, 2003; Uddin et al., 2010). Brain development is a temporally extended and complex process, with
different parts and functions of the brain developing at different times (Grossman et al., 2003). By 5 weeks after conception in humans, the anterior-posterior and dorsal-ventral
axes of the neural tube have already developed (Levitt, 2003). The cortical plate (which is the forerunner of the cerebral cortex) and some inter-neuronal connections form from
8 to 16 weeks of gestation (Kostovi et al., 2002; Levitt, 2003). From 24 weeks of gestation until the perinatal period, the neurons in the cortical plate die and are replaced by
more mature cortical neurons. During this time, significant refinement in neural connections take place (Levitt, 2003). From 34 weeks post-conception until 2 years of age, peak

By preschool age, synaptic density

synapse development, and significant brain growth occurs (Huttenlocher and Dabholkar, 1997; Levitt, 2003).

has reached the adult level. The myelination of some parts of the brain (particularly those that control higher
cognitive functions, such as the frontal lobes) continues well into adolescence, whilst myelination occurs earlier in

other parts of the brain that coordinate more primary functions (Toga et al., 2006). Although the gray matter (which
contains the bodies of nerve cells) reaches asymptote by the age of 711 in different regions of the brain, it is thought that the growth of the white matter (which represents

Studies have shown that the maturation of specific brain areas

axonal nerve tracts) continues beyond 20 years of age.

during childhood is associated with development of specific cognitive functions such as

language , reading , and memory (Nagy et al., 2004; Deutsch et al., 2005; Giedd et al., 2010). The development of the frontal
lobes, which are believed to control higher cognitive functions (including planning, sequencing and self-regulation),
appears to occur in growth spurts during the first 2 years of life, and then again between 7 and
9 years of age and also around 15 years of age (Thatcher, 1991; Bryan et al., 2004). The development of some subcortical structures including
the basal ganglia, amygdala, and hippocampus (which are also centrally involved in some mediating higher cognitive functions, including memory, executive functions, and
emotion) also continues until late adolescence. In addition, a meta-analysis has confirmed a connection between the size of the hippocampus and memory performance during

Overall, the research evidence suggests that cognitive

brain development in children and young adults (Van Petten, 2004).

development is strongly connected with micro and macro-anatomical changes which take place
throughout childhood (Levitt, 2003; Herlenius and Lagercrantz, 2004; Ghosh et al., 2010). Individual brain development follows
a genetic program which is influenced by environmental factors including nutrition (Bryan et al., 2004; Toga
et al., 2006; Giedd et al., 2010). Environmental influences may modify gene expression through epigenetic mechanisms, whereby gene function is altered through the processes
of DNA methylation, histone modification and the modulating effect of non-coding RNAs, without the alteration of the gene sequence per se. These epigenetic factors can cause

long lasting or even heritable changes in biological programs (Levi and Sanderson, 2004; Rosales et al., 2009; Murgatroyd and Spengler, 2011; Lillycrop and Burdge, 2012). It
has been shown in animal and more recently in human studies that nutrition is one of the most salient
environmental factors, and that nutrition can have a direct effect on gene expression
(Levi and Sanderson, 2004; Rosales et al., 2009; Attig et al., 2010; Lillycrop and Burdge, 2011; Jimnez-Chillarn et al., 2012). One of the first and best known human studies in

the offspring of mothers

the rapidly growing field of Nutritional Epigenomics relates to the Dutch Hunger Winter during the 1940's in which

exposed to famine during pregnancy had an increased risk of cardiovascular, kidney, lung, and
metabolic disorders and reduced cognitive functions (Roseboom et al., 2006; De Rooij et al., 2010). More specifically, evidence has
been obtained of hypo- and hyper-methylated DNA segments from the blood cells of the affected individuals (Heijmans et al., 2008). Evidence suggests that

the timing of nutritional deficiencies can significantly affect brain development . For example,
it is well known that folic acid deficiency between 21 and 28 days after conception (when the neural tube closes) predisposes the foetus to a congenital malformation, called a

neural tube defect. Hence, this is a critical period, because during that time an irreversible change in the brain structure
and function occurs if there is inadequate folic acid present (Blencowe et al., 2010). A critical period is a specific period within a sensitive timeframe
(Knudsen, 2004). A sensitive period tends to reflect a broader timeframe; during such a developmental period the brain is more sensitive to specific interventions. However,
skills and abilities can still be acquired outside this time period, albeit with less proficiency (Knudsen, 2004). An example is that deaf children who receive cochlear implants
within a sensitive period for brain development (i.e., before the age of 35 years) show better language development than those who receive a cochlear implant after this period
(Penhune, 2011). Since rapid brain growth occurs during the first 2 years of life (and by the age of 2 the brain reaches 80% of its adult weight), this period of life may be

Adolescence is also a significant and sensitive

particularly sensitive to deficiencies in diet (Bryan et al., 2004; Lenroot and Giedd, 2006).

developmental period, with research indicating that structural reorganization, brain and
cognitive maturation and in particular major developments in the prefrontal cortex take place
during puberty (Luna and Sweeney, 2001; Sisk, 2004; Peper et al., 2009; Asato et al., 2010; Blakemore et al., 2010).

This outweighs food insecurity culminates in systemic food oppression that

undermines survivability of marginalized groups. Only the affs attempt to alter
the institutional nature of high demand for low-cost non-nutritious food can
solve.
Freeman, Professor at UC Berkeley School of Law, 2013
Andrea, The Unbearable Whiteness of Milk: Food Oppression and the USDA,
http://www.law.uci.edu/lawreview/vol3/no4/Freeman.pdf

Food oppression arises from institutionalized, food-related policies and practices that
undermine the physical strength and survival of socially marginalized groups. It often affects
individuals who experience multiple levels of structural subordination based on race, class,
sexual orientation, physical ability, age, or immigration status. These multiple sites of oppression,
compounded by the debilitating effects of food oppression and its absence from most activist
agendas, render resistance particularly challenging. Popular values regarding food, health, and
personal responsibility also obscure food oppression by constructing a mainstream dialogue that
focuses on personal choice and shifts attention away from structural factors such as the mutual
interest of government and corporations in creating and maintaining a high demand for low-
cost, nonnutritious food.23 Food oppression analysis draws on key principles of critical race theory. Food oppression is a
legal concept generated from the bottom that arises not from abstraction but from experience.24 The analysis does not
essentialize, recognizing the interconnected nature of race, class, and other dimensions of power and identity.25 Understanding that
oppression often arises from unconscious biases26 and structural forces, the analysis looks beyond intentional or explicit
subordination, or nutritional racism. Government policy and action almost always appear couched in
neutrality, even when their effects on different communities are significantly
disproportionate.27 The primary goal of applying a food oppression analysis is to effect
change. It is, in the spirit of Derrick Bells work, unabashedly instrumental.28 Rejecting the ideologies of
colorblindness29 and postracialism,30 food oppression analysis seeks to uncover and name
racial and socioeconomic subordination, and to guide the development of policies that
transform the structural underpinnings of this subordination. It strives to generate realistic strategies that
are less likely to worsen conditions for those we are trying to help31 by finding points of interest convergence between the
privileged and the less powerful.32 Most legal scholarship on food and nutrition lacks an explicit critical race and/or class analysis.
Even work that takes a social justice approach to food issues, such as environmental impact,33 food safety,34 and genetic
modification,35 tends to be solutions oriented and not theoretical. While
some legal literature examines race and
class disparities in the context of problems such as access to healthy food,36 hunger or food
insecurity,37 and regulatory issues,38 it often does so without a structural analysis that explains
why geographical, economic, and political factors exacerbate health disparities and act to
reinforce social stratification. The theory of food oppression can guide broader strategies for
change with the goal of identifying and reversing entrenched patterns of subordination in
addition to resolving specific problems.

And independently rollback of healthy reduced cost lunch programs promotes a

lunch shaming culture where children are penalized to force parents to pay
Siegel, NYT, 4/30/2017
Bettina, Shaming Children So Parents Will Pay the School Lunch Bill
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/well/family/lunch-shaming-children-parents-school-
bills.html

Caitlins mother, Merinda Durila, said that her daughter qualified for free lunch, but that a paperwork mix-up
had created an outstanding balance Holding children publicly . Ms. Durila said her child had come home in tears after being humiliated in front of her friends.

accountable for unpaid school lunch bills by throwing away their food, providing a less
desirable alternative lunch or branding them with markers is often referred to as lunch
shaming. The practice is widespread a 2014 report from the Department of Agriculture
found that nearly half of all districts used some form of shaming to compel parents to pay
bills . (About 45 percent withheld the hot meal and gave a cold sandwich, while 3 percent denied food entirely.) A Pennsylvania caf eteria worker posted on Facebook that she had quit after being forced to take lunch from a child with an unpaid bill. In

Alabama, a child was stamped on the arm with I Need Lunch Money. On one day, a Utah elementary school threw away the lunches of about 40 students with unpaid food bills. Hazel Compton, 12, remembers being given a sandwich of white bread with a slice of

cheese instead of the hot lunch served to other children at her Albuquerque elementary school. (A school district spokeswoman said the sandwich met federal requirements.) They would use the sandwich
like a threat , Hazel recalled. Like, If you dont want it, your parents have to pay. Oliver Jane, 15, said that when she had meal debt at Shawnee Heights High School in Tecumseh, Kan., she was told to return her tray of hot food and was given

If you didnt eat the lunch, they were just going to throw it away
a cold sandwich instead. It seems unfair to , she said.

me to expect a bunch of kids to be responsible for putting money in their lunch accounts when
they dont even handle their own funds. Marty Stessman, superintendent of the Shawnee Heights Unified School District, said that younger children were allowed to take a limited number of
meals despite debt, but that high school students were not. Notices are sent home automatically when they go below $5, so it shouldnt be a surprise, Dr. Stessman said. They should know before they get to the cashier. The problem of meal debt is not new, but
the issue has received more attention recently because the Department of Agriculture, which oversees school lunch programs, imposed a July 1 deadline for states to establish policies on how to treat children who cannot pay for food. It has been a longstanding
issue in schools, one thats gone on for decades, said Kevin W. Concannon, who was the departments under secretary for food, nutrition and consumer services in the Obama administration. After a 2010 overhaul of school nutrition standards, the department
heard from schools and advocacy groups about the burden of lunch debt and the shaming practices that often result. Last summer, the Agriculture Department concluded that meal debt should be managed locally, but required states to formalize their debt policies.
Were not telling schools what to put in their policy, but we do want them to think about the issue, said Tina Namian, who oversees the school meals policy branch. The department does not prohibit practices that stigmatize children with meal debt, but offers a list
of preferred alternatives, such as working out payment plans and allowing children with unpaid balances to eat the regular hot meal. In March, New Mexico passed a law that directs schools to work with parents to pay debts and ends practices like cold sandwich

Our biggest hope for this bill is that no student will have to contemplate what
substitutes that may embarrass children.

meal they are going to get , said Monica Armenta, a spokeswoman for Albuquerque Public Schools, where Hazel Compton was given a cheese sandwich. Minnes ota and the San Francisco Unified School District, among

This is fundamentally a
others, also have adopted anti-shaming policies. Recently, the Houston Independent School District notified its food service department that children with debt should be served the regular hot meal.

right-versus-wrong decision, If a kid needs a meal, hes going to eat.

said Brian Busby, the chief operating officer for Houston schools.

But feeding hungry children whose families have meal debt does not solve the problem for
schools, which still must grapple with paying the bill. In 2016, the School Nutrition Association published a review of almost 1,000 school lunch programs, finding that nearly

One solution is the federal free meal program

75 percent of districts had unpaid meal debt. . But not every struggling family meets the income requirements, and those that do may

have language barriers or fears over immigration status, or fail to file the paperwork. An Agriculture Department guidance document suggests that districts reach out to the community for help, for example through random acts of kindness funding and school
fund-raisers. Such efforts around the country have begun to help some districts solve the problem. In 2014, when a theater technician, Kenny Thompson, was mentoring fourth graders in the Houston-area district of Spring Branch, he saw a cafeteria worker refuse to
serve a child the hot meal of chicken, potatoes, fruit and milk. The lunch lady says: Im sorry, I told you yesterday you couldnt have this today. You need to tell your parents to pay their bill. And then she turns around and gives him two slices of bread with cold
cheese, Mr. Thompson said. He knew the childs mother was in the hospital, and he stepped in to pay the bill. Later, Mr. Tho mpson started Feed the Future Forward, which has hosted crawfish boils and charity golf tournaments to raise money for lunch debt. It has
wiped out more than $30,000 in food bills and is planning an additional $23,000 in donations. The giving comes with a catch: Schools must promise they will not give alternative meals to children with unpaid bills. Spring Branch, where Mr. Thompson first witnessed
the practice, has taken the pledge. Rob Solomon, chief executive of GoFundMe, said it had about 30 active campaigns to raise money for meal debt. Camille Billing, a teacher in Hamilton, N.J., recently started a GoFundMe page. In Galveston, Tex., a retired teacher,
Donna Woods-Stellman, paid off the citys meal debt after raising $1,000. A YouCaring page has raised more than $6,000 for students at impoverished high schools in Virginia. In West Palm Beach, Fla., two high school juniors started School Lunch Fairy to help erase
lunch debts. While the efforts are laudable, they should be a last resort, said Abby J. Leibman, president and chief executive of Mazon, a Jewish anti-hunger organization. Others argue that school meals should be offered free to all children, regardless of income, as
is the case in Sweden and Brazil. We need to provide school meals on the same basis on which we provide school transportation and textbooks, said Janet Poppendieck, a senior fellow at the CUNY Urban Food Policy Institute and author of Free for All: Fixing
School Food in America. Some cities, including Boston, Chicago and Detroit, offer free meals to all students under the Community Eligibility Provision, a federal regulation that allows schools and districts in high-poverty areas to do so regardless of individual need. In

districts struggling
New York City, a pilot free lunch program is under review. Most schools in the United States, however, do not qualify for the provision, and only about half of those that do take advantage of it. As a result,

with unpaid lunch bills, which can run into the millions in large urban areas, often resort to
shaming tactics to push parents to pay . Crystal Jarek, a retired teacher in Lee County, Fla., said she remembered the staff taking debt notices to class. The cafeteria staff would come in at noon,
wearing their hairnets, and hand out letters, she said. All the kids would turn around to see who was getting one. During the 2015-16 school year, Lee County began offering free meals for all students at 76 of its schools, including the one where Ms. Jarek taught.

Krepps, a retiree in Kansas City, Mo., has seen the lasting effects of lunch shaming. Her adult
Kerry

son refuses to eat peanut butter because it reminds him of middle school in western
Minneapolis, when students with debt were sent to a table to make peanut butter sandwiches.
The humiliation has persisted for 20 years, It shows how lasting these experiences can be. she said.

You should reject this violence children are uniquely susceptible to

dispropritioanltely bineg impacted by lunch shaming and food insecurity even
though the aff doesnt solve all instances of food insecurity we are a necessary
first step
McSilver Research Institute, 2015
Child Food Insecurity and Mental Health
http://mcsilver.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/Child%20Food%20Insecurity%20and%20Mental%20
Health.pdf

Childhood food insecurity poses considerable risks including adverse effects on health, growth,
academic, and developmental outcomes.4,5,6,7 In The Social Determinants of Mental Health, Compton and Shim assert that food
insecurity and the psychological stress it produces affect people in a myriad of ways, including
putting them at risk for mental illnesses , and fostering poor childhood school and social
development.8 They also point to research indicating that nutritional deficiencies may be a cause
of depressive disorders and increase risk of other mental illnesses . Significantly, they report that The effects
of food insecurity on the mental health of children are even more profound than its effects on
adults .9 To gain greater insight on the relationship between food insecurity and adolescent mental disorders, McLaughlin and colleagues analyzed data from 6,483
adolescents ages 13 to 17 and their parents/guardians, who had participated in a national study examining mental disorders among youth.10 Using validated measures,
adolescents had been screened for disorders identified in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition (DSM-4), and both adolescents and adults had
been screened for food insecurity. The researchers found that the greater the severity of reported household food insecurity, the higher the odds of adolescents having had a
DSM-4 disorder in the past year. Even after controlling for other indicators of socio-economic status, a slight increase of one standard deviation in food insecurity was found to

Research also
be associated with 14 percent higher odds of a mental disorderincluding mood, anxiety, behavior and substance disordersin the past year.

suggests associations between food insecurity and childrens psychosocial well-being. Howard found that
food insecurity is negatively correlated with childrens ability to make and maintain friendships,
ability to express feelings and ideas in positive ways, control of ones temper, respect for the
property of others, and the ability to express empathy and positive regard for others.11 Slopen and
colleagues investigated associations of poverty and food insecurity with internalizing and McSilver Institute for Poverty Policy and Research New York University Silver School
of Social Work 41 East 11th Street, Seventh Floor New York, NY 10003 mcsilver@nyu.edu mcsilver.nyu.edu externalizing behavior problems of 2,810 children (ages 4 to 14)
over a 2-year period. Even after adjusting for sustained poverty and other potential confounding variables, children from homes that were persistently food insecure were
approximately one-and-a-half times more likely to have internalizing problems and two times more likely to have externalizing problems compared to children from households
that were never food insecure.12 Whitaker and colleagues also found in their crosssectional survey of 2,870 mothers of 3 year-old children that the percentage of children with
a behavior problem increased with increasing food insecurity after adjustment of socio-demographic variables and maternal health and mental health indicators (including

Other studies have

alcohol and drug use, prenatal smoking, prenatal domestic violence, major depressive disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder). 13

associated food insufficiency with difficulty getting along with other children among youth ages
6-11 and 12-16,14 and reports of thoughts of death, desire to die, and suicide attempts among
teens.15 A growing body of research, including the studies cited above, illustrates the negative
consequences of food insecurity for childrens developmental, behavioral and mental health
outcomes. We must strive to eliminate food insecurity among children, and programs like free
school breakfast and lunch are necessary and vital to reach this goal.

The plan is a necessary federal intervention in the school system to reverse

these inequalities
1. The aff increases the availability of lunches for low-income children and
streamlines reforms to increase food access and resolve the conditions that
lead to lunch shaming.
Hong, 2015
Irene, University of Pennsylvania Undergraduate Research, The Impact of the Healthy, Hunger-
Free Kids Act of 2010 on National School Meal Participation Rates 2/22
http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1222&context=curej
Conclusion This paper outlined key debates with regard to the impact of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010 on school meal participation rates on a national level.

Through the analysis of academic studies, participation data, and claims made by a variety of
non-profit organizations, this paper demonstrates that the HHFKA and its progressive reforms have positively
impacted low-income children in terms of participation in the School Breakfast and National
School Lunch Programs. Direct Certification and the Community Eligibility Provision play an
especially important role in minimizing the paperwork that has previously stood as a barrier to
low-income childrens participation in school meal programs and as an expensive administrative burden
to school districts . The guarantee of free and reduced price breakfast and lunch at school is
essential for eligible students health and well-being. Multiple studies demonstrate that school
meals also help students achieve greater academic success in school. Increased participation rates in
national school meal programs for at-risk students means that these children have access to food, which is a

basic human need that should continue to be addressed in future child nutrition
reauthorization acts

2. Rollback of nutrition standards disproportionately impacts low income and

minority students access to healthier options.
Hasson, Assistant Professor @ The University of Michigan, 5/2/2017
Rebecca, Low-Income and Minority Students to Suffer Most Under Relaxed School Lunch
Standards http://www.newswise.com/articles/low-income-minority-students-to-suffer-most-
under-relaxed-school-lunch-standards
Our high income kids, even our middle income kids, they are not eating meals in school, said Rebecca Hasson, assistant professor at the University of Michigan and director,

Childhood Disparities Research Laboratory. They eat breakfast at home and bring lunches. Primarily, its the low income and minority
students who eat school meals, Hasson said. These kids are already the least healthy, and the newly
relaxed nutrition guidelines for whole grains, salt and milk could further worsen their diets.
Some of these kids eat as many as two-thirds of their meals at school , Hasson said. This is also the
group with the highest rates of obesity, the highest consumption of sugar sweetened
beverages, and the highest sodium intake and hypertension, both in youth and as they age. To
relax the sodium and milk restrictions and allow for sugar sweetened milk and increased sodium
in meals will disproportionately affect these kids in youth and into adulthood . We have
evidence that suggests there is a direct link between sodium and sugar, and obesity and
diabetes and a whole slew of diseases that Michelle Obama was trying to impact.

3. The aff leads to healthier eating habits that acts as a stopgap remedy to food
insecurity.
Think Progress, 2015
Americans Actually Like Michelle Obamas Healthier School Lunches 8/19
https://thinkprogress.org/americans-actually-like-michelle-obamas-healthier-school-lunches-
d29745df6b35

A growing body of research support such calls to keep the status quo . Last year, researchers at Ohio
State University found that high consumption of fast foodoften replete with salt and sugar and low in calcium, iron, Vitamin C, and
zinccauses some memory loss and slows down cognitive development in children. An unbalanced diet

can also widen waistlines, especially among young people. Rates of childhood obesity have more than doubled in
the last 30 years, bringing with it additional instances of cancer and higher hospitalization costs. A nutritious
breakfast and hour of physical activity has been proven to improve brain function, but some parents dont take these words to heart: 90 percent of homemade school lunches

Experts say a balanced diet that includes bread, fruits and vegetables, dairy, meat, and fish
include deserts, chips, and sweetened nondairy products.

can ward off excessive weight and pave the way for positive health outcomes . For some
Americans, however, its hard to prepare healthy meals because they live in areas with high
food insecurity, where the nearest grocery store is more than a mile away. Funds from the
Supplemental Nutritional Program havent sufficed in connecting low-income people with high
quality meals. Additionally, parents unpredictable work schedules may preclude parents from
engaging their children for dinner, let alone preparing a healthy meal. Thats why members of the American
Heart Association (AHA) have spoken out in recent weeks in support of keeping , and perhaps strengthening,
the requirements outlined in the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act . They particularly point to high
levels of sodium found in frozen and junk food that, when ingested consistently, can lead to
heart disease or stroke. Our children are healthier because of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids
Act, Kristy Anderson, government relations manager at the American Heart Association, told an NBC Los Angeles affiliate. We know that the more
children are exposed to nutritious foods, the more they accept and like eating healthyand it
sets them up for a lifetime of healthy eating habits. So our message is stay the course.

Prefer the aff and reject impact claims based on low risk but high magnitude
frameworks internal link chains are convoluted and should be rejected.
Yudkowsky, 08 cofounder of Machine Intelligence Research Institute [Eliezer, research fellow
at MIRI, Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgment of Global Risks, Machine Intelligence
Research Institute, pp. 7-8, 2008, https://intelligence.org/files/CognitiveBiases.pdf, Accessed
6/29/15]
The conjunction fallacy similarly applies to futurological forecasts. Two independent sets of
professional analysts at the Second International Congress on Forecasting were asked to rate, respectively, the
probability of A complete suspension of diplomatic relations between the USA and the Soviet
Union, sometime in 1983 or A Russian invasion of Poland, and a complete suspension of
diplomatic relations between the USA and the Soviet Union, sometime in 1983. The second set
of analysts responded with significantly higher probabilities (Tversky and Kahneman 1983). In
Johnson et al. (1993), MBA students at Wharton were scheduled to travel to Bangkok as part of their degree program.
Several groups of students were asked how much they were willing to pay for terrorism
insurance. One group of subjects was asked how much they were willing to pay for terrorism
insurance covering the flight from Thailand to the US. A second group of subjects was asked how
much they were willing to pay for terrorism insurance covering the round-trip flight. A third
group was asked how much they were willing to pay for terrorism insurance that covered the
complete trip to Thailand. These three groups responded with average willingness to pay of $17.19,
$13.90, and $7.44 respectively. According to probability theory, adding additional detail onto a
story must render the story less probable. It is less probable that Linda is a feminist bank teller
than that she is a bank teller, since all feminist bank tellers are necessarily bank tellers. Yet
human psychology seems to follow the rule that adding an additional detail can make the story
more plausible. People might pay more for international diplomacy intended to prevent nanotechnological warfare by China,
than for an engineering project to defend against nanotechnological attack from any source. The second threat scenario is less vivid
and alarming, but the defense is more useful because it is more vague. More valuable still would be strategies which make humanity
harder to extinguish without being specific to nanotechnologic threatssuch as colonizing space, or see Yudkowsky (2008) on AI.
Security expert Bruce Schneier observed (both before and after the 2005 hurricane in New Orleans) that the U.S.
government was guarding specific domestic targets against movie-plot scenarios of terrorism,
at the cost of taking away resources from emergency-response capabilities that could respond
to any disaster (Schneier 2005). Overly detailed reassurances can also create false perceptions
of safety: X is not an existential risk and you dont need to worry about it, because A, B, C, D,
and E; where the failure of any one of propositions A, B, C, D, or E potentially extinguishes the
human species. We dont need to worry about nanotechnologic war, because a UN commission will initially develop the
technology and prevent its proliferation until such time as an active shield is developed, capable of defending against all accidental
and malicious outbreaks that contemporary nanotechnology is capable of producing, and this condition will persist indefinitely.
Vivid, specific scenarios can inflate our probability estimates of security, as well as misdirecting
defensive investments into needlessly narrow or implausibly detailed risk scenarios. More generally,
people tend to overestimate conjunctive probabilities and underestimate disjunctive
probabilities (Tversky and Kahneman 1974). That is, people tend to overestimate the probability that, e.g., seven
event+s of 90% probability will all occur. Conversely, people tend to underestimate the probability that at least one of seven events
of 10% probability will occur. Someone judging whether to, e.g., incorporate a new startup, must evaluate the probability that many
individual events will all go right (there will be sufficient funding, competent employees, customers will want the product) while also
considering the likelihood that at least one critical failure will occur (the bank refuses a loan, the biggest project fails, the lead
scientist dies). This may help explain why only 44% of entrepreneurial ventures 2 survive after 4 years (Knaup 2005). Dawes (1988,
133) observes: In their summations lawyers avoid arguing from disjunctions (either this or that or the other could have occurred,
all of which would lead to the same conclusion) in favor of conjunctions. Rationally, of course, disjunctions are
much more probable than are conjunctions. The scenario of humanity going extinct in the next century is a disjunctive
event. It could happen as a result of any of the existential risks we already know aboutor some other cause which none of us
foresaw. Yet for a futurist, disjunctions make for an awkward and unpoetic-sounding prophecy.

And theres no scenario for International conflict escalation is unlikely and

checks and balances prevent conflicts.
Aziz, 14
John, Analyst and Associate editor of Pieria, an online magazine that brings together experts on
the economy to write articles, Don't worry: World War III will almost certainly never happen,
3/6/14, http://theweek.com/article/index/257517/dont-worry-world-war-iii-will-almost-
certainly-never-happen

Next year will be the seventieth anniversary of the end of the last global conflict. There have been
points on that timeline such as the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, and a Soviet computer malfunction in 1983 that erroneously
suggested that the U.S. had attacked, and perhaps even the Kosovo War in 1999 when a global conflict was a real possibility. Yet
today in the shadow of a flare up which some are calling a new Cold War between Russia and
the U.S. I believe the threat of World War III has almost faded into nothingness. That is, the
probability of a world war is the lowest it has been in decades, and perhaps the lowest it has
ever been since the dawn of modernity. This is certainly a view that current data supports. Steven
Pinker's studies into the decline of violence reveal that deaths from war have fallen and fallen since World War
II. But we should not just assume that the past is an accurate guide to the future. Instead, we must
look at the factors which have led to the reduction in war and try to conclude whether the decrease in war is sustainable. So
what's changed? Well, the first big change after the last world war was the arrival of mutually
assured destruction. It's no coincidence that the end of the last global war coincided with the
invention of atomic weapons. The possibility of complete annihilation provided a huge
disincentive to launching and expanding total wars. Instead, the great powers now fight proxy
wars like Vietnam and Afghanistan (the 1980 version, that is), rather than letting their rivalries expand into full-on, globe-spanning
struggles against each other. Sure, accidents could happen, but the possibility is incredibly remote. More
importantly, nobody in power wants to be the cause of Armageddon. But what about a non-nuclear
global war? Other changes economic and social in nature have made that highly unlikely
too. The world has become much more economically interconnected since the last global war.
Economic cooperation treaties and free trade agreements have intertwined the economies of
countries around the world. This has meant there has been a huge rise in the volume of global trade since World War II,
and especially since the 1980s. Today consumer goods like smartphones, laptops, cars, jewelery, food, cosmetics, and
medicine are produced on a global level, with supply-chains criss-crossing the planet. An example: The
laptop I am typing this on is the cumulative culmination of thousands of hours of work, as well as resources and manufacturing
processes across the globe. It incorporates metals like tellurium, indium, cobalt, gallium, and manganese mined in Africa.
Neodymium mined in China. Plastics forged out of oil, perhaps from Saudi Arabia, or Russia, or Venezuela. Aluminum from bauxite,
perhaps mined in Brazil. Iron, perhaps mined in Australia. These raw materials are turned into components memory
manufactured in Korea, semiconductors forged in Germany, glass made in the United States. And it takes gallons and gallons of oil to
ship all the resources and components back and forth around the world, until they are finally assembled in China, and shipped once
again around the world to the consumer. In a global war, global trade becomes a nightmare. Shipping becomes
more expensive due to higher insurance costs, and riskier because it's subject to seizures, blockades, ship sinkings. Many goods,
intermediate components or resources including energy supplies like coal and oil, components for military hardware, etc, may
become temporarily unavailable in certain areas. Sometimes such as occurred in the Siege of Leningrad during World War II
the supply of food can be cut off. This is why countries hold strategic reserves of things like helium, pork, rare earth metals and oil,
coal, and gas. These kinds of
breakdowns were troublesome enough in the economic landscape of
the early and mid-20th century, when the last global wars occurred. But in today's ultra-
globalized and ultra-specialized economy? The level of economic adaptation even for large
countries like Russia and the United States with lots of land and natural resources required to
adapt to a world war would be crushing, and huge numbers of business and livelihoods would be wiped out. In other
words, global trade interdependency has become, to borrow a phrase from finance, too big to fail.
It is easy to complain about the reality of big business influencing or controlling politicians. But big business has just about the most
to lose from breakdowns in global trade. A practical example:
If Russian oligarchs make their money from selling
gas and natural resources to Western Europe, and send their children to schools in Britain and
Germany, and lend and borrow money from the West's financial centers, are they going to be
willing to tolerate Vladimir Putin starting a regional war in Eastern Europe (let alone a world
war)? Would the Chinese financial industry be happy to see their multi-trillion dollar
investments in dollars and U.S. treasury debt go up in smoke? Of course, world wars have been waged despite
international business interests, but the world today is far more globalized than ever before and well-connected domestic interests
are more dependent on access to global markets, components and resources, or the repayment of foreign debts. These are huge
disincentives to global war. Butwhat of the military-industrial complex? While other businesses might be hurt due
to a breakdown in trade, surely military contractors and weapons manufacturers are happy with war? Not necessarily. As
the
last seventy years illustrates, it is perfectly possible for weapons contractors to enjoy the profits
from huge military spending without a global war. And the uncertainty of a breakdown in global
trade could hurt weapons contractors just as much as other industries in terms of losing access
to global markets. That means weapons manufacturers may be just as uneasy about the prospects for large-scale war as other
businesses. Other changes have been social in nature. Obviously, democratic countries do not tend to go to war
with each other, and the spread of liberal democracy is correlated against the decrease in war
around the world. But the spread of internet technology and social media has brought the world
much closer together, too. As late as the last world war, populations were separated from each
other by physical distance, by language barriers, and by lack of mass communication tools. This
means that it was easy for war-mongering politicians to sell a population on the idea that the
enemy is evil. It's hard to empathize with people who you only see in slanted government
propaganda reels. Today, people from enemy countries can come together in cyberspace and
find out that the "enemy" is not so different, as occurred in the Iran-Israel solidarity movement
of 2012. More importantly, violent incidents and deaths can be broadcast to the world much
more easily. Public shock and disgust at the brutal reality of war broadcast over YouTube and
Facebook makes it much more difficult for governments to carry out large scale military
aggressions. For example, the Kremlin's own pollster today released a survey showing that 73 percent of Russians disapprove of
Putin's handling of the Ukraine crisis, with only 15 percent of the nation supporting a response to the overthrow of the government
in Kiev. There are, of course, a few countries like North Korea that deny their citizens access to information that might contradict the
government's propaganda line. And sometimes countries ignore mass anti-war protests as occurred prior to the Iraq invasion of
2003 but generally a more connected, open, empathetic and democratic world has made it much harder for war-mongers to go to
war. The greatest trend, though, may be that the world as a whole is getting richer.
Fundamentally, wars arise out of one group of people deciding that they want whatever another
group has land, tools, resources, money, friends, sexual partners, empire, prestige and deciding to take it by
force. Or they arise as a result of grudges or hatreds from previous wars of the first kind. We don't
quite live in a superabundant world yet, but the long march of human ingenuity is making basic human
wants like clothing, water, food, shelter, warmth, entertainment, recreation, and medicine more
ubiquitous throughout the world. This means that countries are less desperate to go to war to
seize other people's stuff. Now, the future is infinite and today's trends don't last forever. Declarations of the "end of
history" often come back to haunt those who make them, and I am well aware that a world war is still possible. Trying to predict the
actions of nations in the present is hard enough, and further into the future becomes exponentially more difficult. (Then again, my
take is like Pascal's Wager: If I'm wrong, who's going to be around to tell me so?) Further into the future, severe climate change, and
resource depletion, for example, could lead to new pressures to go to war (although climate mitigation and adaptation as well as
recycling technologies mean both of these possibilities are avoidable). The development of robotic soldiers and drones may make it
easier for countries (or even corporations) to go to war. Technical errors, computer glitches, or diplomatic misunderstandings can
lead to war. Terrorism, inequality, and internal political or civil strife can all create the pressure for war. But the
tendency
toward inertia is strong. It is clear at least that the incentives for world war are far lower than
they were in previous decades, and the disincentives are growing. The apocalyptic visions of a new world
war between nations or empires that three generations of children have been raised into continue to diminish.
And we are only responsible for the moral implications of the aff you should
prioritize alleviating the structural conditions of food insecurity.
Harris, 08 Competitive Enterprise Institute
Alex, "Philosophers Corner: Principle of Intervening Action", August 15 2008,
https://cei.org/blog/philosophers-corner-principle-intervening-action

Gewirth takes the position that we are solely responsible for the morality of our own actions in two senses.
First, only we are responsible for the acts we commit, even if someone else's action caused us to
act as we did. (For example, if a woman's husband cheated on her and she, upon finding out, grew enraged and killed his lover,
she - not he - would bear sole responsibility.) Second, we are only responsible for our own actions, even if they
lead to other actions. Thus, we have a preeminent duty to never act immorally, even if doing so
would preclude others from taking even more immoral actions. Gewirth contends that never violating
the negative rights of another "is an obligation so fundamental that it cannot be overridden even
to prevent evil consequences from befalling some persons." He clarifies with an example. Imagine that a group
of terrorists kidnaps a woman and offers her son a choice: he must torture his mother or they
will blow up a city with a nuclear weapon. Gewirth argues that the son has a primary duty to not
violate the rights of his mother, whereas he is not the actor who is blowing up the city - the
terrorists are the moral agents responsible for that action, not the son. If the son had the choice,
he would pick neither. His duty is to never violate rights; the only way to fulfill this is to not torture his mother. Gewirth
argues: "It would be unjustified to violate the mother's right to life in order to protect the rights to life of the many other residents
of the city. For rights cannot be justifiably protected by violating another right."
Academics Advantage
 Aff K2 Academic Success 2AC Studies
Nutritious School lunches are critical for academic success
1. Cognitive development malnutrition impedes brain development and leads
to less attentive students and impaired mental functions thats Anderson and
Brody.
2. Medical Studies prove Researchers conducted longitudinal studies in
California and found higher rates of success from students with more nutritious
meals thats Anderson.
Err aff there is a proven causal relationship between school lunch quality and
school success
Thielman, The Guardian Contributor, 2017
Sam, 'Outrageous': expert slams White House for denying school meals' link to learning 3/17
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/17/school-lunch-program-cuts-student-
performance-link

Weitzman is also an author of the 1988 study of Boston schoolchildren that showed a causal
relationship between academic performance and expanded school breakfast programs for the first
time. When the study was released, Weitzman argued, and still argues, that the cost to the public of

school meals is a pittance compared with the benefit to society. The findings clearly demonstrate
that feeding children breakfast in school at a very modest cost less than $1 a day has positive effects on
their educational attainment, Weitzman told the New York Times at the time. Republicans spent the Obama
administration mocking Michelle Obamas campaign to improve school meals; doctors fear that lobbying groups like
the School Nutrition Association, which campaigns for lowered nutritional standards in childrens meals, will have its way in a Trump administration. Funding for the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) is not
addressed in the Trump budget, which is not exhaustive, but the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which administers the program and other childhood nutrition initiatives, will have to make cuts somewhere

The connection between

of the departments hunger alleviation initiatives, only the supplemental nutritional assistance program is guaranteed funding in the Trump budget.

childhood nutrition and hard educational metrics such as attendance and test performance has
been documented repeatedly , by universities as well as government agencies including the
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . But Weitzman and the other researchers who worked
on the Boston study demonstrated explicitly that federally funded nutrition programs improve
academic performance . That they help to alleviate poverty as well is simply a bonus.
 Cognitive K2 Competitiveness 2AC
Malnutrition leads to an ill prepared workforce and undermines overall
competitiveness
Jeng, Research and Policy Fellow at Feeding America, 2009
Karen, Child Food Insecurity: The Economic Impact on our Nation
https://www.nokidhungry.org/sites/default/files/child-economy-study.pdf

Child Hunger is a Workforce and Job Readiness Problem Workers who experienced hunger as
children are not as well prepared physically, mentally, emotionally or socially to perform
effectively in the contemporary workforce, Workers who experienced hunger as children
create a workforce pool that is less competitive, with lower levels of educational and
technical skills, and seriously constrained human capital.
 Elementary/HSs K2 the Economy 2AC
Increasing educational performance for younger students are key to the overall
economy facilitating better cognitive functions at lower age builds better long
term results.
Ansel, Policy Analyst and Writer at Equitable Growth, 2017
Bridget, Failing to invest in young kids is damaging the U.S. economy 1/17
http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/failing-to-invest-in-young-kids-is-damaging-the-u-s-
economy/

The lack of focus on early childhood education and care is due in part to an outdated system built on the
assumption that mothers still stay home with a young child while fathers go to workeven though this post-WWII ideal was never the reality for many women, especially

women of color.Whats more, other countries among the nations developed and rapidly developing
peers have caught up. The United States today spends less than almost every other of these
nations on early childhood education and care. In 2012, the United States ranked 33rd out of 36 nations in terms of investment in early
childhood education relative to their overall income, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Unlike the United States, these other

OECD countries are reaping the benefits shown by the large body of research showing the
benefits of high-quality early childhood care and education programs . Studies show these
programs are one of the best ways to reduce economic inequality and improve individual
outcomes later in life. Thats because the brain is more flexible and responds to its environment
more than that of older kids . When investment in younger children is implemented on a
national scale, research shows that helps create a more productive workforce and provides a
boost to the overall economy.
 EDU K2 Productivity 2AC
Education is key to the economy leads to a more productive work force that
drives growth.
Berger, President of Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center, 2013
Noah, A Well-Educated Workforce Is Key to State Prosperity 8/22
http://www.epi.org/publication/states-education-productivity-growth-foundations/

The best way to measure whether an economy is working is to look at whether the incomes of
average people are increasing. To achieve rising incomes for average people, two things need to happen:
productivity needs to increase (creating more income overall), and new income generated from their increased
productivity needs to be returned to workers in the form of higher wages. Ensuring the fair distribution of the
rewards of productivity growth is primarily a federal responsibility, through such things as strong labor laws, fair trade policies, and monetary and fiscal policies that encourage
full employment. There are some steps states can take in this area, such as maintaining strong labor standards, including minimum wage laws that protect the lowest paid

workers. Where states have the greatest role to play, however, is in making sure that all of their peopleand particularly in
those from the most disadvantaged backgroundshave the tools to be highly productive. Education is the key to that,

as are other things that make learning possible, such as making sure children have decent
health care and sufficient nutrition . Reducing poverty itself has also been shown to improve the ability of children to thrive (Marr, Charite,
and Huang 2013). Evidence suggests that states that increase the level of education of their workforce
see greater productivity . As shown in Figure A, between 1979 and 2012, states in which the share of adults with at least a college degree experienced
greater increases in productivity, measured as gross state product per hour worked.
 EDU K2 the Economy 2AC Studies Prove
Longitudinal studies prove increased educational performance leads to a more
sustainable economy.
Berger, President of Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center, 2013
Noah, A Well-Educated Workforce Is Key to State Prosperity 8/22
http://www.epi.org/publication/states-education-productivity-growth-foundations/

Does the correlation between education and earnings necessarily mean that states can
strengthen their economies in the long run by adopting policies that increase the number of
well-educated workers? Recent academic work suggests that the answer is, Yes. A study by
Federal Reserve economists examined the factors contributing to greater state prosperity over a
65-year period and found that a states high school and college attainment rates were
important factors in explaining its per capita income growth relative to other states between 1939 and
2004 (Bauer, Schweitzer, and Shane 2006). Increasing educational attainment can be achieved by a variety of policies and programs, including those that increase access to postsecondary education by restraining

tuition growth or increasing financial aid, reduce high-school drop-out rates, move people without high school degrees through GED and associate degree programs, increase the quality
of K-12 education to improve success of high school graduates in postsecondary education, and
offer preschool programs that lead to long-term improvements in educational outcomes. An evaluation of the effectiveness of alternative education strategies is beyond the scope of this report. But there

is evidence that state expenditures on primary and secondary education improve school
performance and raise state per capita income . For example, investments in school facilities led to improvements in student test scores (Cellini, Ferreira,
and Rothstein 2010). And over a 34-year period , states that improved their position relative to other states on

real per-capita education spending improved their relative position in real per-capita income,
and the direction of causality was from education spending to income (Bensi, Black, and Dowd 2004). Also,
the long-term benefits of early childhood education programs have been well documented (Lynch 2007). Some state officials may be tempted to ask, What good would it do to produce more college graduates if
better-paying jobs for college graduates are not available? Shouldnt the state focus on attracting higher-skilled jobs instead of creating more skilled workers who have to leave the state to find work? But in this

instance,if not in most others in economic policymaking, increased supply can actually help create its
own demand. As Bartik has put it, An increase in the labor supply probably stimulates labor
demand by at least two-thirds the supply increase. This is because additional labor attracts
employers, and additional higher-skilled labor attracts employers with more skilled jobs (Bartik 2009). To a
degree then, the answer to these concerns is, If you educate them, jobs will come , though national strategies to increase the demand for skilled workers may also
be needed. Education investments are good not only for a states economy and residents, but also for a states budget in the long run. This may seem counterintuitive since education is a large share of state-
financed expendituretypically over half if including postsecondary education and state aid to K-12 school systems.4 But education investments can pay off for the state in the long run. The majority of students
graduating from state schools will remain in the state over their working lives, and as a result of being better trained, will have better jobs. This means they will earn more and stay employed at a higher rate,
paying more income and sales taxes and relying less on state assistance programs. There is evidence that every additional student who gets an associate or bachelors degree instead of stopping formal education
after graduating from high school will, over his or her lifetime, return to the state, in the form of higher taxes, substantially more than the cost of their education. This means that scholarships or other programs
that lead more students to higher education can more than pay for themselves, even if a third of the graduates leave the state (French and Fisher 2009). The overall returns from investments in early childhood
education mean that such investments will generally pay for themselves (Lynch 2007). States would do well if they focused their resources on their historic role as the guarantors of high quality education for all,
while broadening the scope of that role to include universal preschool and other early childhood education programs, and beginning to view high quality postsecondary education and training as the standard for
all students. In most states that would mean reversing recent cuts to, and even elimination of, publicly funded preschool,5 and declines in public investments in postsecondary education. From 19901991 to
20092010, real funding per student at public colleges and universities declined 26 percent, and the share of state personal income going to higher education fell 30 percent, while tuition at four-year institutions
more than doubled and at community colleges rose 71 percent (Quinterno 2012). Instead of improving access to higher education in response to the needs of a changing economy, most states have restricted it.

Conclusion Ultimately, the wealth of a society can increase only if the economy becomes more
productive. A more productive economy can support both higher wages and higher profits, as
well as shorter work weeks and a higher quality of life. So the question of how to increase productivity needs to be at the center of any debate
about state economic development. As this paper shows, moving jobs from one state to another state does nothing to increase productivity. Rather, productivity rises with

investments in infrastructure and workers, with investments in education that raise educational
achievement providing a major boost. Thus, investing in education is a core contribution
states can make to the well-being of their residents and the national economy overall.
 Economic Competiveness Impact Framing 2AC
US growth is a pre-requisite to solving great power conflicts its the
foundation of US strength.
Lieberthal, Brookings John L. Thornton China Center director, 2012
(Kenneth, The Real National Security Threat: America's Debt, 7-10,
http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/07/10-economy-foreign-policy-lieberthal-
ohanlon)
Alas, globalization and automation trends of the last generation have increasingly called the American dream into question for the working classes. Another decade of underinvestment in what is required to
remedy this situation will make an isolationist or populist president far more likely because much of the country will question whether an internationalist role makes sense for America especially if it costs us

well over half a trillion dollars in defense spending annually yet seems correlated with more job losses. Lastly, American economic weakness undercuts U.S.
leadership abroad. Other countries sense our weakness and wonder about our purport 7ed decline. If this perception becomes more
widespread, and the case that we are in decline becomes more persuasive, countries will begin to take actions that reflect their skepticism about
America's future . Allies and friends will doubt our commitment and may pursue nuclear
weapons for their own security, for example; adversaries will sense opportunity and be less
restrained in throwing around their weight in their own neighborhoods. The crucial Persian Gulf and Western Pacific regions will likely become less
stable . Major war will become more likely. When running for president last time, Obama eloquently articulated big
foreign policy visions: healing America's breach with the Muslim world, controlling global climate change,
dramatically curbing global poverty through development aid, moving toward a world free of
nuclear weapons. These were, and remain, worthy if elusive goals. However, for Obama or his
successor, there is now a much more urgent big-picture issue: restoring U.S. economic
strength. Nothing else is really possible if that fundamentalprerequisite to effective foreign
policy is not reestablished.

Sustaining US economic competiveness is key to prevent conflicts and creates

stable deterrents slow growth undermines global stability.
Haass 13 (Richard N, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, 4/30/13, The World
Without America, http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/repairing-the-roots-of-
american-power-by-richard-n--haass)

The most critical threat facing the United States now and for the foreseeable future is not a rising
Let me posit a radical idea:

China, a reckless North Korea, a nuclear Iran, modern terrorism, or climate change. Although all of these constitute potential or actual threats, the biggest
challenges facing the US are its burgeoning debt, crumbling infrastructure, second-rate primary and secondary schools, outdated immigration system, and slow
economic growth in short, the domestic foundations of American power . Readers in other countries may be tempted to react to this
judgment with a dose of schadenfreude, finding more than a little satisfaction in Americas difficulties. Such a response should not be surprising. The US and those representing it have been guilty of hubris (the US
may often be the indispensable nation, but it would be better if others pointed this out), and examples of inconsistency between Americas practices and its principles understandably provoke charges of
hypocrisy. When America does not adhere to the principles that it preaches to others, it breeds resentment. But, like most temptations, the urge to gloat at Americas imperfections and struggles ought to be

Americas failure to deal with its internal challenges would

resisted. People around the globe should be careful what they wish for.

come at a steep price. Indeed, the rest of the worlds stake in American success is nearly as large as that of the US itself. Part of the reason is economic. The US economy still accounts for
about one-quarter of global output. If US growth accelerates, Americas capacity to consume other countries goods

and services will increase, thereby boosting growth around the world. At a time when Europe is drifting and
Asia is slowing, only the US (or, more broadly, North America) has the potential to drive global economic recovery . The
US remains a unique source of innovation. Most of the worlds citizens communicate with mobile devices based on technology developed in Silicon Valley; likewise, the Internet was made in America. More
recently, new technologies developed in the US greatly increase the ability to extract oil and natural gas from underground formations. This technology is now making its way around the globe, allowing other
societies to increase their energy production and decrease both their reliance on costly imports and their carbon emissions. The US is also an invaluable source of ideas. Its world-class universities educate a

the US has long been a leading example of what market economies

significant percentage of future world leaders. More fundamentally,

and democratic politics can accomplish. People and governments around the world are far more likely
to become more open if the American model is perceived to be succeeding. Finally, the world faces
many serious challenges, ranging from the need to halt the spread of weapons of mass destruction, fight climate change,

andmaintain a functioning world economic order that promotes trade and investment to regulating

practices in cyberspace, improving global health, and preventing armed conflicts . These problems will

not simply go away or sort themselves out . While Adam Smiths invisible hand may ensure the success of free markets, it is
powerless in the world of geopolitics . Order requires the visible hand of leadership to formulate
and realize global responses to global challenges. Dont get me wrong: None of this is meant to suggest that the US can deal effectively with the worlds
problems on its own. Unilateralism rarely works. It is not just that the US lacks the means; the very nature of contemporary global problems suggests that only collective responses stand a good chance of

multilateralism is much easier to advocate than to design and implement. Right now there is only
succeeding. But

one candidate for this role: the US. No other country has the necessary combination of capability
and outlook. This brings me back to the argument that the US must put its house in order economically , physically, socially, and politically
if it is to have the resources needed to promote order in the world . Everyone should hope that it does: The
alternative to a world led by the US is not a world led by China, Europe, Russia, Japan, India, or any other
country, but rather a world that is not led at all. Such a world would almost certainly be characterized by chronic crisis and
conflict . That would be bad not just for Americans, but for the vast majority of the planet s inhabitants.
 AT: Resilient
The US is the worlds strongest economy now because of relative stability---but
if something goes wrong buffers are nonexistant
Neil Irwin 1/7/16, Senior Economic Correspondent at The New York Times, "Can U.S. Remain
an Island of Stability in the Global Economy?", NYT, www.nytimes.com/2016/01/08/upshot/can-
us-remain-an-island-of-stability-in-the-global-economy.html
The Chinese stock market is plummeting so fast that authorities there keep shutting it down. North Korea set off a bomb in a nuclear
test. Two of the Middle Easts great powers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, are eyeing each other menacingly. In the European Union,
political extremists are on the rise, migrants are pouring in and Britain may drop out (three phenomena that are not unrelated). And
in the United States, the number of people filing unemployment claims is hovering near the
lowest levels in four decades, the jobless rate may well fall below 5 percent for the first time
since 2007, and whatever the noise on the presidential campaign trail, Congress recently passed bipartisan legislation to keep
the government running comfortably into next year. Seven days in, 2016 is shaping up to be a chaotic year in

global economics and geopolitics, with profound challenges nearly everywhere. Except, for now
at least, in the worlds largest economy. The American economy is acting as a steadying force in
a volatile world. A giant question for 2016 not just for Americans but for people across the globe who benefit
from having one of the worlds major economic engines revving while others sputter is how resilient the United

States will prove to be. On one hand, in an interconnected global economy, troubles in one
place can spread easily, whether through financial markets, the banking system or trade linkages. Just Thursday the World
Bank downgraded its forecast of 2016 global growth, which implies less demand for American products around the world and
fewer jobs for American workers. On the other hand, in the past the United States has shown an uncanny
tendency to benefit economically from tumult abroad. The United States may not have
incredibly robust economic growth and has plenty of problems you can point to, said Ian Bremmer,
president of the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical consultancy. But from a stability perspective, when things are
more unstable, the United States in some ways gets stronger as both people and investment
dollars gravitate to the nations relative stability . The truth is, not one of the problems that have
flared across financial news tickers so far in 2016 is completely new or surprising. Rather, they
are continuations of trends that were well established in 2015. And as disturbing as it may be to see
tensions rise between the nations on either side of the Persian Gulf, conflict in the Middle East is not exactly new. Usually the way
those tensions ripple through the global economy is by driving the cost of oil up; instead, the opposite is happening. Oil prices fell to
$37 a barrel from around $53 a barrel over the course of last year, and are now under $34. The Shanghai composite index fell
sharply starting in June of last year, and even after steep declines in the opening days of 2016 is above its late-August level (though it
is anybodys guess how much it would have fallen absent a string of government interventions to try to stanch the declines).
Economic growth has been slowing not just in China but across many emerging markets,
including Brazil and Nigeria, for two years now. Europe and Japan are growing only barely, and
even formerly hot advanced economies like Canada are suffering from the commodity glut.
Against that gloomy backdrop, the consensus economic forecasts for the United States the
International Monetary Fund forecasts 2.8 percent growth in 2016 look pretty terrific. The
American stock market indexes, despite the global sell-off and major hits to oil companies earnings, remain above their September
levels. But there are two basic questions about the notion that the United States can serve as an island of economic and political
stability in a messy world. First, what
happens if that changes? Second, what happens if it doesnt? The things
change situation is the risk that these global headwinds become too powerful for the United
States to overcome. Already, oil producers and their suppliers are suffering. The American industrial sector is
groaning under the weight of a strong dollar, which drives up the price of exported goods. Thats
a consequence of the mismatch between growth in the United States and the rest of the world.
The strength in the service sector and the broader consumer economy in the United States has
offset any damage so far. But the 2008 crisis showed how the global economy is intertwined in
ways that are hard to predict and thats before accounting for the geopolitical dangers from the Middle East and the
Korean Peninsula that could cause major economic disruptions if they take a dark turn. If something does go wrong,

the usual buffers in the global economy look to be weakened or nonexistent right now.
Government deficits are high in much of the world, and even where they arent, political leaders
have shown no desire to open the spending floodgates in an effort to bolster economies. If the
American economy were to slump and President Obama were to ask the Republican Congress
for fiscal stimulus, it would give new meaning to Dead on Arrival.
 AT: US Not Key
US is key to the global economy---turning an economic focus inward allows
other countries to reshape the international system
Howard J. Shatz 6/21/16, a senior economist at the RAND Corporation, director of RAND-
Initiated Research, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. He specializes in
international economics, including economic development, foreign direct investment, and
international trade; and economics and national security, Ph.D. in public policy, Harvard
University; M.I.A. in international policy analysis and management, Middle East studies, School
of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University; postgraduate study in Middle East
studies, Tel Aviv University, "U.S. International Economic Strategy in a Turbulent World", RAND,
www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1521.html

Paving the Way for the Next Era of Global Growth The
world economy faced numerous challenges as of early
2016. Growth in most major economies either has slowed or is slowing; a major multilateral
trade round has fallen through; global debt is increasing, especially that of emerging markets; and
developing countries are slowing as well, stemming in part from Chinas economic slowdown. In addition,
parallel institutions are emerging, with unknown effect. The United States has led the world
economy for several reasons, including its economic size, its ability to formulate and execute
policies, and the fact it has been in most countries interest to follow the U.S. lead . Unlike security
policy, economic policy depends not only on executive and legislative action and on the action of other governments and
multilateral institutions, but also on the actions of the billions of businesses and consumers around the world, reducing some
element of control that governments may wish to exercise over their economies. Even with
global challenges, there is
no reason to think that the rules-based international system that has evolved since the end of
World War II is any less useful now than it was throughout the postwar era. Furthermore, ideas for
replacing it are scarce. Maintaining and expanding the liberal international order can have large,
positive, cumulative effects on U.S. growth and economic performance. Selective engagement
or retrenchment may allow U.S. policymakers to focus temporarily on domestic issues, but that will also allow other
countries to reshape the international trading and investing rules in a way that might work
against U.S. interests and accordingly could have large, negative, cumulative effects on
economic performance. Therefore, the United States should strive to maintain and improve the
system, integrating growing economic powers to maintain system legitimacy, improving global
rules to foster free exchange, and working to spur growth and development so that lives are
improved and countries find the U.S.-led system a desirable one in which to participate. Because
the United States has global economic interests, and because these are tied to its security interests, there is little choice but
to engage globally.
 AT: Alt Causes
US economic growth is strong enough to ensure international competitiveness--
-but maintaining current growth is key
Howard J. Shatz 6/21/16, a senior economist at the RAND Corporation, director of RAND-
Initiated Research, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. He specializes in
international economics, including economic development, foreign direct investment, and
international trade; and economics and national security, Ph.D. in public policy, Harvard
University; M.I.A. in international policy analysis and management, Middle East studies, School
of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University; postgraduate study in Middle East
studies, Tel Aviv University, "U.S. International Economic Strategy in a Turbulent World", RAND,
www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1521.html

For some, the Great Recession that started with the 2008 financial crisis called into question the value of the U.S.
economic model. Combined with continued robust growth in China and the developing world during the immediate postrecession period, the Great
Recession raised questions about the dominant role the United States has played in the global
economy since the end of the Second World War. In considering the economic component of
the United States role in the world, U.S. policymakers need to consider not only what the
United States wants, but what it has the power to bring about. For now at least, that power is
considerable. In the immediate term, U.S. growth prospects are better than those of any other major
developed country and even better than those of most of the members of the vaunted BRICS
clubBrazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (Table 4.1). Both the World Bank and the IMF anticipate that in 2016
and 2017 the United States will grow faster than high-income countries as a group, the Euro area, Japan, the UK,
Brazil, Russia, and South Africa.1 China and India are both projected to grow rapidly, but both international institutions project that China may be at the low end of, or miss, its
target growth rate of 6.5 percent to 7.0 percent per year through 2020; India among all major economies is projected to grow the fastest. Beyond the BRICS, emerging markets

The United States remains the worlds

more generally have been slowing, and concerns about emerging market debt have been rising.2

leading economy, even as the global economic environment has changed greatly over the past
four decades. In part, emulating U.S. economic policies, the global economy has liberalized
dramatically since the Latin American debt crisis of 1982, sparked by Mexicos default. One early sign of this opening was the reform of laws and regulations by host
nations regarding the freedom of foreign companies to invest in companies within their borders.3 Liberalization accelerated in the 1990s with the collapse of the Soviet Union
and the centrally planned economic system it chose for itself and imposed on its satellites; Deng Xiaopings dramatic 1992 trip to the south of China, sparking major reforms
there, building on the initial opening of the late 1970s; the start of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994; and the completion of the Uruguay Round of
trade negotiations and the entry into force of the new WTO in 1995. Fueled by technological innovation, a telecommunications and Internet build-out that culminated in the
dot-com bubble and crash of 2001, continued liberalization, a debt buildup that spurred investment in real estate in a number of countries (in addition to the United States), and

other factors,the global economy expanded until the financial crisis of 2008 temporarily halted
growth. Despite that crisis, the U.S. and global economies retained the assets created during
the long period of growth, particularly the human capital, the physical infrastructure (including the
Internet and communications infrastructure), and the market-oriented economic systems (primarily embodied in corporations), that

generate output. The creation of the Internet and communications infrastructure has resulted in
a second major change in the global economic environment. In addition to greater integration, the world is now more tightly bound in terms of both the
volume of information flowing and the speed with which it flows. As a consequence, reaction times for market participants and policymakers are often quicker than in years
past. As one sign of this global information revolution, worldwide mobile cellular subscriptions per 100 people grew from 0.3 in 1991 to 96.3 in 2013: In that latter year there
were almost as many cellular subscriptions as there were people on the planet.4 However, many people held multiple subscriptions; unique mobile subscribers in early March

So far, the United States and its major allies have

2016 totaled almost 5.0 billionmore than two-thirds of the worlds inhabitants.5

been in the lead on the information and communications technology revolution, partly because
of high levels of innovation. Reflecting this innovation activity, the United States has the largest
global share of knowledge-intensive service industries, at 32 percent of the global total, and the
largest share of high-technology manufacturing, at 27 percentalthough China closely follows in the latter category.6 In
terms of exports, the United States is second behind the European Union (EU) in knowledge-intensive services, and third behind China and the EU in manufactured high-
technology productsThis chapter provides information about trends in the global economy from 1991 through 2014 to illustrate the relative standing of the United States.
Comparison regions and countries include the EU, Japan, China, a grouping of Brazil, India, Russia, and South Africa (BIRS), and the rest of the world, which consists mostly of

The United States remains the worlds largest

developing countries. Gross Domestic Product and the U.S. Share of the World Economy

economy.7 Although the U.S. share of the global economy declined by 3.5 percentage points
between 1991 and 2014, the U.S. economy still constitutes more than one-fifth of global output
(Figure 4.1). Much of the slow growth between 1991 and 2014 took place after the financial crisis, and

in fact, the United States had small increases in 2012, 2013, and 2014. If U.S. growth
continues, the Chinese slowdown intensifies, and slow growth in Europe and elsewhere
continueas the IMF and World Bank projectthis recent decline in the share of global
output may continue to reverse.
Health Advantage
 Plan Solves Obesity 2AC
Best medical studies prove the aff reduces childhood obesity
Bergman, President of Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics, 2014
Ethan, School Lunch Before and After Implementation of the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act
https://schoolnutrition.org/uploadedFiles/5_News_and_Publications/4_The_Journal_of_Child_
Nutrition_and_Management/Fall_2014/SchoolLunchBeforeandAfterImplementationHealthyHun
gerFreeKidsAct.pdf

Major changes noted in Table 2 include a reduction in sodium content in both selected meals (1,148 mg for 2012 to 909 mg for 2013) and consumed meals

(844 mg for 2012 to 647 mg for 2013). School Nutrition Dietary Assessment (SNDA) studies have shown sodium to historically be at high levels in school meals (Story, 2009; Mathematica Policy Research, 2013). Data for SNDA-IV (Fox & Condon, 2012), were gathered
in 2009 and 2010. The SNDA-IV data show that in most schools the average sodium content of NSLP meals served exceeded the recommendation of less than 1,230 mg of sodium per lunch by more than 50%. Unlike the data from SNDA-IV, the current study indicated
that sodium means for both 2012 selected meals and 2013 selected meals were below this recommended level. This may be partially due to the fact that the schools in the current study had received HUSSC awards. As such, these schools were evaluated based on
healthy changes they had enacted in the school environment. Although reduction of sodium is not specifically listed as one of the major goals of the HUSSC program, increasing fruits and vegetables is one of the goals. This could result in fewer high sodium foods
included in the menu. Nonetheless, the final rule (Federal Register, 2012) has targeted sodium as one of the nutrients to be reduced over time as seen in Table 1 (Federal Register, 2012; USDA, 2012b). Reductions in sodium from the 2012 meals to the 2013 meals

The percentage of calories from saturated fat

indicate that school child nutrition program directors are making menu and ingredient changes that reduce sodium in NSLP meals.

was also reduced when comparing the selected and consumed 2012 meal means to the 2013
meal means. The final rule recommends that less than 10% of total calories offered
(Federal Register, 2012)

come from saturated fat. The reduction

Both the 2012 levels (9.25% of calories from saturated fat) and the 2013 levels (5.77% of calories from saturated fat) were below the recommended levels.

from 2012 to 2013 meals indicates that the school child nutrition program directors successfully
made menu changes to reduce the percentage of calories from saturated fat in NSLP meals . Almost

all of the significant mean changes were reductions from pre-implementation of the HHFKA in
2012 to post-implementation of the HHFKA in 2013 . The one exception is fiber. For fiber, both the selected meals (6.0 g in 2012 to 12.1 g in 2013) and consumed meals (4.4

This
g in 2012 to 9.2 g in 2013) were higher in 2013 after the implementation of HHFKA. Although there is no established recommend ed level of fiber per day, increased fiber in the meal would be considered a positive change in the dietary intake of children.

is because of its potential positive health effects such as reduced risk of obesity and heart
disease over time (American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Nutrition, 2004). An adequate level of fiber is approximately the childs age plus 5 to 10 grams per day (Williams, Bollela, & Wynder, 1995). Using this formula, a 10

. A likely
year old would be encouraged to consume 15 to 20 grams of fiber per day. The mean of 9.2 grams consumed in the 2013 meal would be an adequate level considering school lunch is designed to provide one-third of the childs intake per day

explanation for the increased amounts of fiber between 2012 and 2013 is the HHFKA emphasis
on whole grains and increased intake of fruits and vegetables.
 Plan Solves Obesity 1AR
The plan solves allows effective limitations on lunches
Kaplin, JD Harvard Law, 2011
Lauren, A National Strategy to Combat the Childhood Obesity Epidemic
https://jjlp.law.ucdavis.edu/archives/vol-15-no-2/Lauren-Kaplin.pdf

The Kids Act represents a phenomenal step forward in the nations fight against obesity . When
viewed in light of the research on school-based interventions, the future seems promising: as noted
above, the Kids Act implements many of the components found in successful programs . Beyond just

mandating wellness programs across the country, the Kids Act ensures the institutionalization of these
programs by creating roles dedicated to their implementation and enforcement. This element of
institutionalization is magnified because the Kids Act school-intervention is government-run:
unlike the shortterm interventions funded by research grants in the above studies (except for the Canadian AVHPSP), the
Kids Acts wellness policies incorporate considerations of health and physical well-being into the
existing school-system in a permanent manner . The long-term funding and stability generated
by legislative action ensures that the wellness policies instituted by the Kids Act will not be cut
short on a whim. Moreover, like the program leaders in the AVHPSP, charging individual officials with ensuring
implementation of and compliance with the Kids Act guidelines in each local agency creates a
constituency of people personally invested in the continuation, maintenance, and success of the
program.
 Obesity Collapses Healthcare 2AC
The plan leads to healthier lifestyles and decreases obesity that saves over
$190 billion in healthcare costs and stops driving US debt which is crucial to
solving growth.
Ellis, co-founder and CEO of FoodCorps, 2015
Curt, School lunch program could save $103 billion 10/8
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/08/school-lunches-could-save-us-103-billion-commentary.html

One in three of our nation's kids is overweight or obese, and as a country we spend
Let's start with the math:

$190 billion a year in medical costs to fight this epidemic. But these costs aren't just incurred by
health insurance companies; they're a major burden on taxpayers. The biggest single driver of
our national debt is health care spending through Medicare and Medicaid. Research has shown that spending
would be much lower for these programs 8.5 percent and 11.8 percent respectively or $103 billion in 2014 alone were it
not for obesity . This cost will only increase as our nation's "obesity generation" grows up . In
2030, direct medical expenses attributed to diet-related disease will hit an annual cost of $ 66 billion per
year , and the overall loss in economic productivity could be as much as $580 billion annually .
What science tells us about the obesity epidemic is just as worrisome. The research paints an alarming portrait of obesity's effects on a child's health, happiness and human

potential. In the near term, an obese child will have fewer friends, miss more days of school and
score lower on tests. As she becomes an adult, she will be less likely to go to college, be out sick
more at work and under perform in her career. Before her life is over, she can be expected to battle weight-related illnesses heart
disease, diabetes, cancer or all three and to raise children who themselves face elevated risks of obesity,

sending the spiral into another downward turn . Making matters worse,diet-related disease
takes a disproportionate toll on low-income children and children of color, erecting another
barrier in our nation's fight for equity and opportunity. Thankfully, recent history demonstrates
how we can begin to address the problem. The 2010 version of the Child Nutrition Act, known as the Healthy, Hunger
Free Kids Act, was a bipartisan and particularly health-supporting version of the every-five-years bill that funds our nation's school meal programs. It set
high standards for school meals around whole grains, fruits, vegetables and proteins, an essential step toward treating
our nation's epidemic of diet-related disease for the 31 million children who eat school food.
Implementation of these ambitious standards has been challenging, but in districts where they have been met with
creativity, resourcefulness and hard work, students have embraced the healthier diet they are being offered. And

it's paying off: it appears the obesity epidemic is finally beginning to reverse.
 Obesity Collapses Healthcare 1AR
Obesity overwhelms budgets and prevents effective state operations.
Baker, The Week Contributor, 4/9/2017
Beth, The enormous economic costs of America's obesity epidemic
http://theweek.com/articles/690701/enormous-economic-costs-americas-obesity-epidemic

As American waistbands continue to expand, researchers and policy-makers are trying to figure out just what the
obesity epidemic is going to cost the nation. There are the direct medical costs of treating
obesity-related diseases, including type 2 diabetes, heart disease and stroke, high blood pressure, arthritis, and related cancers, among others. And then there
are the indirect costs: lost productivity, more illness, extra infrastructure to handle heavier
patients and residents. These bills are already coming due in Memphis. Last year, extra health-
care costs from obesity were $538 million more than half the budget of the city's public school
system, according to Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index. For the state of Tennessee, the annual excess health costs of obesity were
$2.29 billion equivalent to more than 6 percent of the entire state budget . No matter how many surgeries Woodman
conducts, he won't make a dent; many more Americans are tipping the scales into the obese range each year. Endocrinologist Jay Cohen, who treats many patients with obesity-caused diabetes, estimates that

the average diabetic patient costs the health-care system triple what a healthy person costs.
Add in their lost productivity and the price tag skyrockets. " It's politically imperative to reduce
the obesity rate ," said Cohen. Nationally, "it costs literally trillions of dollars to treat these conditions ."

These costs outweigh obesity costs alone are 4 times the budget for foreign
aid.
Baker, The Week Contributor, 4/9/2017
Beth, The enormous economic costs of America's obesity epidemic
http://theweek.com/articles/690701/enormous-economic-costs-americas-obesity-epidemic

And then there are the national costs. Zhou Yang,

a professor at Emory University who studies the impact of obesity on the
medical system, found that obese older males spent $190,657 more on lifetime health-care expenses

than their normal-weight peers, while older obese women spent $223,629 more. A 2016 meta-
analysis by University of Washington researchers found that annual medical spending attributed to obesity
nationally was nearly $150 billion more than four times the federal budget for foreign
aid and nearly enough to fund the entire U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs .
 AT: Status Quo Solves 2AC
Status quo rollback locks in unhealthy foods and high salt intakes
Jalonick, PBS Contributor, 5/1/2017
Mary, Government relaxes nutrition standards for school lunches
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/government-relaxes-nutrition-standards-school-
lunches/

Health advocates who have championed the rules are concerned about the freeze in sodium
levels, in particular. School lunches for elementary school students are now required to have
less than 1,230 mg of sodium, a change put in place in 2014. The new rule would keep the meals
at that level, delaying a requirement to lower sodium to 935 mg this year. By forgoing the next
phase of sodium reduction, the Trump Administration will be locking in dangerously high
sodium levels in school lunch , said Margo Wootan, a lobbyist for the Center for Science in the Public Interest.
 AT: Status Quo Solves 1AR
Schools arent in compliance
School Nutrition Association, 2015
Myth vs. Fact on Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act School Meals Implementation

No school has been certified as meeting the updated nutrition standards that took effect
FACT:

July 1, 2014, including sodium limits, the requirement that 100% of grains be whole grain rich, and the mandate to offer a full cup of fruit at breakfast. In addition,
schools must meet the Smart Snacks in Schools rule, which limits the calories, fat, sodium and portion sizes for foods and beverages sold in school vending machines, snack bars

the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had no data to show that 90% of schools
and a la carte lines. However, even before then,

were successfully meeting standards. Schools were not asked to report on how new standards
have impacted student participation, costs, revenues and food waste. USDA only evaluated one
week of school menus to determine if schools are compliant with the standards, and does not require
schools to report on whether menu adjustments are sustainable and accepted by students.
 AT: Burnout
Pandemics cause extinction burnout wrong
Kerscher 14
(Karl-Heinz, Space Education, Wissenschaftliche Studie, 2014, 92 Seiten)

The death toll for a pandemic is equal to the virulence, the deadliness of the pathogen or pathogens,
multiplied by the number of people eventually infected. It has been hypothesized that there is
an upper limit to the virulence of naturally evolved pathogens. This is because a pathogen that
quickly kills its hosts might not have enough time to spread to new ones, while one that kills its
hosts more slowly or not at all will allow carriers more time to spread the infection, and thus likely out-
compete a more lethal species or strain. This simple model predicts that if virulence and transmission are
not linked in any way, pathogens will evolve towards low virulence and rapid transmission. However,
this assumption is not always valid and in more complex models, where the level of virulence
and the rate of transmission are related, high levels of virulence can evolve. The level of
virulence that is possible is instead limited by the existence of complex populations of hosts, with
different susceptibilities to infection, or by some hosts being geographically isolated. The size of the host population and
competition between different strains of pathogens can also alter virulence. There
are numerous historical examples
of pandemics that have had a devastating effect on a large number of people, which makes the
possibility of global pandemic a realistic threat to human civilization.
 AT: No Bioterrorism 2AC
bioterror is possible and motive exists.
Rose 14 [Patrick, PhD, recognized international biodefense expert, Center for Health &
Homeland Security senior policy analyst & biosecurity expert, National Defense University
lecturer, and Adam Bernier, expert in counter-terrorism, "DIY Bioterrorism Part II: The
proliferation of bioterrorism through synthetic biology," CBRNePortal, 2-24-14,
www.cbrneportal.com/diy-bioterrorism-part-ii-the-proliferation-of-bioterrorism-through-
synthetic-biology/, accessed 8-16-14]

In Part I of this series, we examined how the advancement of synthetic

biology has made bio-engineering
accessible to the mainstream biological community. Non-state actors who wish to employ biological
agents for ill intent are sure to be aware of how tangible bio-weapons are becoming as applications
of synthetic biology become more affordable and the probability of success increases with each scientific
breakthrough. The willingness of non-state actors to engage in biological attacks is not a new concept; however, the past biological
threat environment has been subdued compared to that of conventional or even chemical terrorism. The frequency and deadliness
of biological attacks has, thankfully, been limited; much of which can be attributed to the technical complexity or apparent
ineptitude of the perpetrators developing biological weapons. Despite
the infrequency and ineffectiveness of biological
attacks in the last four decades, the threat may be changing with the continued advancement
of synthetic biology applications. Coupled with the ease of info rmation sharing and a rapidly
growing do-it-yourself-biology (DIYbio) movement (discussed in Part I), the chances of not only ,
more attacks , but potentially more deadly ones will inevitably increase . During the last half century
terrorist organizations have consistently had an interest in using biological weapons as a means of
attacking their targets, but only few have actually made a weapon and used it. The attraction is that terrorist activities with
biological weapons are difficult to detect and even more difficult to attribute without a specific perpetrator claiming responsibility.
Since 1971 there have been more than 113,113 terrorist attacks globally and 33 of them have been biological. The majority of bio-
terrorism incidents recorded occurred during the year 2001 (17 of the 33); before 2001 there were 10 incidents and since 2001 there
were 6 (not counting the most recent Ricin attacks). The lack of a discernable trend in use of bio-terrorism does not negate the clear
intent of extremist organizations to use biological weapons. In fact, the capacity to harness biological weapons more effectively
today only increases the risk that they will successfully be employed. The landscape is changing : previously the instances
where biological attacks had the potential to do the most harm (e.g., Rajneeshees cults Salmonella attacks in 1984, Aum Shinri Kyos
Botulinum toxin, and Anthrax attacks in the early 90s) included non-state actors with access to large amounts of funding and
scientists. Funding and a cadre of willing scientists does not guarantee success though. The
assertion was thus made that
biological weapons are not only expensive, they require advanced technical training to make and
are even more difficult to effectively perpetrate acts of terrorism with. While it is difficult to determine with certainty
whether the expense and expertise needed to create biological weapons has acted as a major deterrent for groups thinking of
obtaining them, many experts would argue that the cost/expertise barrier makes the threat from biological attacks extremely small.
This assertion is supported by the evidence that the vast majority of attacks have taken place in Western countries and was
performed by Western citizens with advanced training in scientific research. In
the past decade the cost/expertise
assertion has become less accurate. Despite the lack of biological attacks, there are a number of very
dangerous and motivated organizations that have or are actively pursuing biological weapons.
The largest and most outspoken organization has been the global Al Qaeda network, whose leaders have frequently and
passionately called for the development (or purchase) of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). The principal message
from Al Qaeda Central and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has included the call to use biological
WMDs to terrorize Western nations. Al Qaeda has had a particular focus on biological and nuclear weapons because of their
potential for greatest harm. Osama Bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Anwar al-Awlaki have all called for attacks using biological
weapons, going so far as to say that Muslims everywhere should seek to kill Westerners wherever possible and that obtaining WMDs
is the responsibility of all Muslims. Before the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, Al Qaeda had spent significant funds on building a bio-
laboratory and had begun collecting scientists from around the world; however, the Afghanistan invasion and subsequent global
War on Terrorism is thought to have disrupted their capabilities and killed or captured many of their assets. Despite the physical
setbacks, this disruption
does not appear to have changed the aggressive attitude towards
obtaining WMDs (e.g., more recently U.S. Intelligence has been concerned about AQAP attempting
to make Ricin). The emergence of synthetic biology and DIYbio has increased the likelihood that
Al Qaeda will succeed in developing biological WMDs. The low cost and significantly reduced
level of necessary expertise may change how many non-state actors view bio logical weapons
as a worthwhile investment. This is not to say that suddenly anyone can make a weapon or
that it is easy. To the contrary making an effective biological weapon will still be difficult, only
much easier and cheaper than it has been in the past. The rapid advancements of synthetic
bio logy could be a game changer , giving organizations currently pursuing biological weapons
more options, and encouraging other organizations to reconsider their worth. Because the bar
for attaining bio logical weapons has been lowered and is likely to continue to be lowered as
more advances in biological technology are made, it is important that the international community begin to formulate policy that
protects advances in science that acts to prevent the intentional misuse of synthetic biology. Disregard
for this
consideration will be costly. A successful attack with a potent biological weapon, where no
pharmaceutical interventions might exist, will be deadly and the impact of such an attack will
reverberate around the globe because biological weapons are not bound by international
borders.

Even if there is no organized incentive lone wolfs exist with the knowledge
Cole 12 Dr. Leonard, teaches at Rutgers University and the University of Medicine and
Dentistry of New Jersey. He has written extensively on bioterrorism issues and on terror
medicine. BIOTERRORISM: STILL A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES, Combatting Terrorism
Center at West Point, https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/bioterrorism-still-a-threat-to-the-
united-states

Contention #3: The

growing number of investigators with knowledge about select agents has
increased the chances that an unsavory scientist could launch a bioattack. Along with more
high containment facilities has come more scientists who handle select agents. Concern about
dangerous individuals among them was heightened in 2008 when the FBI named Bruce Ivins as the
perpetrator of the 2001 anthrax attacks. Ivins was a veteran scientist who for decades had worked on anthrax at the U.S. Army
Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) in Fort Detrick, Maryland. Before charges could be brought he committed suicide, so his
guilt or innocence could never be established in a court of law. Still, evidence of his aberrational behavior, including alcoholism, depression, and self-
described bouts of paranoia, evidently went unnoticed by his superiors. The Ivins case highlighted questions about the screening of workers with ready
access to select agents. The number of those workers just prior to the anthrax attacks has been estimated at about 700. By 2008, however, the figure

had climbed to more than 14,000.[12] As some have suggested, the greater numbers mean that the odds of one of
them turning out to be a bad apple has increased.[13] Ironically, Ivins was not a newly minted
investigator, but a long-respected figure in the armys biodefense program. Days after Ivins death, a
USAMRIID spokesperson acknowledged that officials may have been unaware of his problems because they relied in part on self-reporting.[14] In 2011,
a mental health review panel concluded that Dr. Ivins had a significant and lengthy history of psychological disturbance and diagnosable mental illness
at the time he began working for USAMRIID in 1980.[15] The Ivins case has raised concerns that other troubled or nefarious individuals might be
working in U.S. laboratories.
A recent government-sponsored forum on biosecurity called for periodic
behavioral evaluations of personnel with access to select agents that include drug testing,
searches for criminal history, and completion by selectees of a security questionnaire.[16] Even while
acknowledging the necessity of security measures, the right to privacy and freedom of scientific inquiry must be respected to the extent possible. In any

case, behavioral monitoring can never provide absolute protection against the acts of a clever
miscreant.
Food Insecurity
 Food Insecurity Impact Calculus 2AC
Resolving food insecurity is a necessary prerequisite to resolving any other
social ills it directly undermines living conditions and structurally
disadvantages communities.
Freeman, Professor at UC Berkeley School of Law, 2007
Andrea, Fast Food: Oppression through Poor Nutrition
http://scholarship.law.berkeley.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1198&context=californialawrev
iew

Urban communities of color suffer the harshest effects of poor nutrition. Individuals living in
these communities often lack sufficient access to adequate health care and education,
compounding the deleterious effects of a diet monopolized by fast food. Members of these communities also
experience multiple forms of oppression as a result of their class and race. Attributes such as gender, age, disability, or sexual
orientation can add further layers of vulnerability. Although the harm caused by over-consumption of fast food cuts across race and
class lines, its pronounced and extreme effect on low-income people of color represents a form of structural oppression that
activists must incorporate into a struggle for racial and economic justice. Food oppression
undermines both the
survival and well-being of lowincome, urban communities of color. As one scholar notes ,
"[h]ealth is fundamental to every aspect of life: without health, a student cannot do well in
school; a worker cannot hold a job, much less excel at one; a family member cannot be an
effective parent or spouse. Health crises and the staggering costs they impose are critical
underlying causes of poverty, homelessness and bankruptcy.", 3 Reducing the physical quality
and expectancy of individuals' lives fosters the creation of an underclass of people who become
progressively 4 more marginalized and powerless as a result of economic and health crises.
Food oppression is structural because it is not the product of individual acts of discrimination,
but stems rather from the institutionalized practices and policies of government and the fast food
industry. Government policies engendering food oppression range from providing public assistance insufficient to cover the cost of
fresh food to collaboration with the fast food giants to ensure that their products dominate lunch-room counters and dinner tables.
This state-sponsored racial inequality is obscured by the distinction between public and private
spheres of action and is perpetuated by the myth of personal choice, even where a lack of
options and resources severely limits the ability to exercise choice. Too often, advocates of
"personal choice" blame low-income people of color for their own weight issues and health
crises, linking these problems to individual moral and cultural failures instead of placing the
problems in the broader, historical context of long-entrenched policies and practices. Activists for
racial equality also encounter similar and related arguments that social ills facing African Americans and Latinos, such as high rates
of incarceration, segregation in housing and education, and drastic disparities in health and lifestyles, arise from individuals' failure
to choose to better themselves. 5 These
arguments are part of a new color-blind rhetoric that refuses to
acknowledge the role of race in the challenges faced by communities of color. Furthermore, this
emphasis on individual responsibility frees corporations and the government from culpability,
and allows them to maintain the status quo and reap resultant benefits without social
accountability.
 AT: Food Insecurity Declining
Even if there are improvements over 13 million households are still food
insecure
News USA, 6/10/2017
Online News Source, Hunger Still Has Hold on America Despite Economic Improvement
http://longisland.news12.com/story/35633914/hunger-still-has-hold-on-america-despite-
economic-improvement

While America may not appear to have the kind of hunger that is pervasive in other
(NewsUSA) -

countries, that's not to say it doesn't exist . Hunger remains a concern for millions of Americans ,
and for people who are "food insecure," the average reported need for food has increased,
based on data from Map the Meal Gap 2017, a new report released by Feeding America, a non-profit hunger-relief organization.The report describes
the cost of food and food insecurity in communities across the United States. Food insecurity is defined by the U. S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) as a lack of access, at

number of Americans identified as

times, to enough food for an active, healthy life for all members of a household. According to the USDA, the

food insecure decreased from 50 million in 2009 to 42 million in 2015. Still, Map the Meal Gap finds that the
individuals who are food insecure report needing an average of nearly $530 more per person in
2015 to afford enough food, representing a 13 percent increase since 2008."This is grim news ,"
says Diana Aviv, CEO of Feeding America, in a statement. "It is disheartening to realize that millions of hardworking, low-

income Americans are finding it increasingly difficult to feed themselves and their families at the
same time that our economy is showing many signs of improvement, including a substantial decline in the number of
people who are unemployed."The online version of the report features an interactive map, and key data points include estimates of the number of food-insecure individuals at
the community level, the percentage of these individuals who may or may not qualify for federal nutrition programs, such as SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, as well as

even states such as North Dakota, where

information about average cost of a meal in these areas.Consider this: According to the report,

the rate of child food insecurity is lowest, 1 in 11 children are estimated to live in food-insecure
households . In addition, food insecurity tends to be more common in rural areas versus urban
areas."Feeding America is particularly concerned about children who struggle with hunger
because of the devastating and sometimes life-long consequences caused by lack of adequate
nutrition ," Ms. Aviv says. " Children are our most vulnerable citizens ."The report uses data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture,
U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, as well as food price data and analysis from the information company Nielsen, a global provider of information and
insights.The study was supported by The Howard G. Buffett Foundation, Conagra Brands Foundation, and Nielsen.Visit feedingamerica.org for more information about hunger,
local member food banks, and opportunities to help.
 AT: Status Quo Solves
The status quo doesnt solve rollback eliminates free meals for low income
students
Landa, 5/23/2017
Breanna, Herald News, Letter to the Editor: Childhood obesity must be addressed
http://www.fontanaheraldnews.com/opinion/letter-to-the-editor-childhood-obesity-must-be-
addressed/article_b925ed7a-1001-11e7-b46d-43560b62dfeb.html

Childhood obesity was a trending topic under the Obama Administration. With one in five
children battling obesity, this topic deserves to be addressed. The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of
2010 created nutritional guidelines to combat this problem and provides access to free meals
for students in low income homes. Currently, various policies face change with a new presidential administration. It is critical for
Americans to stand firm in the progress of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act, as it directly
impacts the youth of the nation. Critics of the program have cited an increase in food waste since the passage of the legislation. Further, some
The transition from greasy lunches to whole grains and
reports have indicated students' disapproval of the new health standards.

fruits may take some adjusting and recent reports have actually shown a newfound approval of school lunches. Implementing these
new nutritional standards has proven to be instrumental in creating a healthy and productive
learning environment for students nationwide . The repercussions of childhood obesity include
both short and long term effects on the health and development of our youth . It is imperative
that Americans stand firm in the progress of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act and continue
to ensure the healthy development for the children of America .

And schools arent in compliance yet continued enforcement is key

School Nutrition Association, 2015
Myth vs. Fact on Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act School Meals Implementation

No school has been certified as meeting the updated nutrition standards that took effect
FACT:

July 1, 2014, including sodium limits, the requirement that 100% of grains be whole grain rich, and the mandate to offer a full cup of fruit at breakfast. In addition,
schools must meet the Smart Snacks in Schools rule, which limits the calories, fat, sodium and portion sizes for foods and beverages sold in school vending machines, snack bars

the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) had no data to show that 90% of schools
and a la carte lines. However, even before then,

were successfully meeting standards. Schools were not asked to report on how new standards
have impacted student participation, costs, revenues and food waste. USDA only evaluated one
week of school menus to determine if schools are compliant with the standards, and does not require
schools to report on whether menu adjustments are sustainable and accepted by students.
 Risk Calculus 2AC
Conventional risk calculus deploys danger as a means of social control in order
to ossify hierarchies of domination, which ignores how social location is central
to the way in which judgement over risk in debate is conceptualized. Only
embracing our uncomfortable impact calculus is ethical.
Rebecca Saunders 5, Professor of Comparative Literature @ Illinois State, 2005, Risky
Business: Edward Said as Literary Critic, Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the
Middle East, Vol 25:3, pg. 529-532

Risk-free ethics, like all protection from risk, are a class privilege. As Deborah Lupton puts it, The
disadvantaged have fewer opportunities to avoid risks because of their lack of resources compared with the advantaged;
peoples social location and their access to material resources are integral to the ways in
which they conceptualize and deal with risk. 22 Or, as Ulrich Beck argues, Poverty attracts an unfortunate
abundance of risks. By contrast, wealth (in income, power or education) can purchase safety and freedom from risk.23 Thus when
we endorse a risk-free ethics, we should bear in mind that members of social groups with less to lose and more to gain are more
likely to engage in risky behaviors than are members of more secure and privileged social groups.

Moreover, as Mary Douglas has argued at length, risk is a forensic resource and, much like the danger she elaborated in her

early work, functions as a means of social control . Anthropologists would generally agree, she writes, that
dangers to the body, dangers to children, dangers to nature are available as so many weapons to use in the
struggle for ideological domination.24 These weapons are sharpened, she argues, by Western
societies association of risk assessment with scientific neutrality. Along similar lines, Nick Fox contends that
risk analysis is a deeply political activity. The identification of hazards (and the consequent definition
of what is a risk) can easily lead to the valorization of certain kinds of living over others.25 The
identification of risk groups deemed to be threatening to the social orderthe unemployed, criminal,
insane, poor, foreignare a common technology for establishing boundaries between self and other, the normal and the
pathological, that is,
for securing that formidable battery of distinctions Said analyzes between ours and
theirs, proper and improper, higher and lower, colonial and native, Western and Eastern.26

In a fascinating article on debates over native title in Australia, Eva Mackey demonstrates both the way in which political actors
deploy a rhetoric of risk, danger, and threat and the uses of risk management to imperial
hegemony. Not only have newspaper headlines presented native title as an issue that has brought the nation to the brink of a
dangerous abyss, to the point of destruction, but the Howard government constructs native title as a danger and risk to the
national interest, particularly a risk to competitiveness, opportunities, and progress. The entire anti-native title lobby have all
stated . . . that the uncertainty over native title is dangerous for investment and economic competitiveness.27 As Mackey points
out, these notions of danger imply a normative, non-endangered state, and it is through ideas of the normal and deviant that
institutional power is maintained.28

A related argument articulated by governmentality theorists is that modern societies normalize risk avoidance and pathologize risk
taking, represent the former as rational and mature, the latter as irrational and childish oppositions that, again, are familiar to any
student of colonial discourse.29 These oppositions are buttressed by an
elaborate apparatus of expert knowledge
produced by disciplines such as engineering, statistics, actuarialism, psychology, epidemiology,
and economics, which attempt to regulate risk through calculations of probability and which view the
social body as requiring intervention, management and protection so as to maximize wealth, welfare and productivity.30
Knowledge produced about probability is then deployed as counsel to individuals about how to conduct their lives. As Lupton
contends: In late modern societies, not to engage in risk avoiding behavior is considered a failure of the self to take care of itselfa
form of irrationality, or simply a lack of skillfulness (Greco 1993). Risk-avoiding
behavior, therefore, becomes
viewed as a moral enterprise relating to issues of self-control, self-knowledge and self-
improvement.31 This is a characteristic of neoliberal societies that Pat OMalley, Francois Ewald, and others
refer to as the new prudentialism.32

To recognize that risk is a form of social control, and that risk taking is more necessary to certain classes than to others, is also to
recognize that risk is not an objective entity or preexisting fact but is produced by specific cultural, political, and institutional
contexts, as well as through competing knowledges. To call something a risk, argues Douglas, is to recognize its importance to our
subjectivity and wellbeing. 33 Anthony Giddens, similarly, contends that there
is no risk which can be described
without reference to a value.34 In a frequently cited passage, Ewald writes, Nothing is a risk in itself; there
is no risk in reality. But on the other hand, anything can be a risk; it all depends on how one analyses
the danger, considers the event.35 Indeed, this is precisely the unconscious of risk-management
technologies, which assume both that risks are preexistent in nature and that individuals comport
themselves in strict accordance with a hedonic calculus. 5 3 1 Also embedded within this insurantial unconscious
is the fact that, as Fox puts it, The welladvertised risk will turn out to be connected with legitimating moral principles.36

If postcolonial studies, as I am arguing, should more rigorously interrogate risk-avoidance strategies (including those that repress or
discipline the foreignness in language) on their political, class, and ideological investments, it should also recognize the degree to
which risk management (no doubt among modernitys most wildly optimistic formulations) indulges in a fantasy of
mastery over uncertainty . In risk-management discourses, risk has taken on the technical meaning of a known or
knowable probability estimate, contrasted with uncertainty, which designates conditions where probabilities are inestimable or
unknown. This
transformation of the unknown into a numerical figure, a quantification of
nonknowledge that takes itself for knowledge, attempts to master whatever might be undesirable in the
unknown (i.e., the future) by indemnifying it in advanceand thereby advertising its own failure. I believe it could be
demonstrated, moreover, were we to trace the genealogy of this fantasy, that it coincides at crucial moments with the history of
colonization. The notion of risk, first used in relation to maritime adventures, arises contemporaneously with modern imperialism, to
describe the hazards of leaving home. With industrial modernity, and particularly the rise of the science of statistics in the
nineteenth century, it took on themien of instrumental reason and the domination of nature, nuances that bear an unmistakable
resemblance to the logics of concurrent colonial enterprises.37

This fantasy of mastery is also a suppression of possibility; in most instances, risk

avoidance is an (implicit or explicit)
maintenance of dominant values. Risk taking, by contrast, is the condition of possibility of
possibility that is, of change. It is perhaps no surprise that ones political position is the strongest
predictor of his/her attitude toward risk. Risk, as we have seen, is regularly formulated as that
which threatens the dominant order (conceived on the level of a society, a colonial regime, or a
global economic order). That threat, of course, is the danger of transformation, of reorganized
social and ideological hierarchies, redistributed economic and cultural capital, renovated
geopolitical relationsin short, precisely the kinds of transformation called for by much of postcolonial
studies.

Reject utilitarian frameworks it justifies violence upon minorities for the good
of the majority.
Kerby Anderson 4, masters degrees from Yale University (science) and from Georgetown
University (government), 5-27-2004, "Utilitarianism: The Greatest Good for the Greatest
Number," Probe, https://www.probe.org/utilitarianism-the-greatest-good-for-the-greatest-
number/

There are also a number of problems with utilitarianism. One problem with utilitarianism is that it
leads to an end justifies the means mentality. If any worthwhile end can justify the means to
attain it, a true ethical foundation is lost. But we all know that the end does not justify the means. If that were so,
then Hitler could justify the Holocaust because the end was to purify the human race. Stalin could justify his slaughter of millions
because he was trying to achieve a communist utopia.

The end never justifies the means. The means must justify themselves. A particular act cannot
be judged as good simply because it may lead to a good consequence. The means mu st be
judged by some objective and consistent standard of morality.

Second, utilitarianism
cannot protect the rights of minorities if the goal is the greatest good for
the greatest number. Americans in the eighteenth century could justify slavery on the basis that
it provided a good consequence for a majority of Americans. Certainly the majority benefited from
cheap slave labor even though the lives of black slaves were much worse.

A third problem with utilitarianism is predicting the consequences. If morality is based on results, then we
would have to have omniscience in order to accurately predict the consequence of any action.
But at best we can only guess at the future, and often these educated guesses are wrong.

A fourth problem with utilitarianism is that consequences themselves must be judged. When results
occur, we must still ask whether they are good or bad results. Utilitarianism provides no
objective and consistent foundation to judge results because results are the mechanism used to judge the action
itself.
 No Nuclear War 2AC AT: Trump
Trump wont cause escalation to nuclear conflict norms check
Rachel Becker 17 (Rachel Becker, 1-20-2017, "Whats standing between Donald Trump and
nuclear war?," Verge, accessed 2-4-2017,
http://www.theverge.com/2016/12/11/13903336/donald-trump-nukes-nuclear-weapons-
proliferation-legal-psychological-barriers)

And anything that depends so much one persons judgement is also vulnerable to that persons ego. At some level,
Gilinsky argues, anyone whos worked on or with nuclear weapons wants to see the effort pay off. When the atomic bomb exploded on Hiroshima, the
Los Alamos scientists cheered, Gilinsky recounted in a 2006 speech. Not because of the fatalities, but because their work was a success. Youve got
these people who are constantly training, he told The Verge. They want it to be important. And for
it to be important, the
possibility of nuclear war has to be important. That ego doesnt just show up as professional pride, either, Gilinsky writes in a
recent article. A cult of toughness at the top levels of the US government could also tip the balance towards using nuclear weapons when its
necessary in order to save face. THIS KIND OF SABER RATTLING COULD DRIVE MORE NATIONS TO ARM THEMSELVES This
doesnt mean
that President Donald Trump will suddenly launch a nuclear warhead and unleash nuclear
armageddon. After all, a US president is unlikely to violate a long-standing taboo that the US so
clearly benefits from, Wellerstein told The Verge. Densely populated cities, easy-to-locate military
targets, and vulnerable infrastructure makes the US an especially exposed nuclear target if nukes
suddenly became acceptable weapons to use.
 AT: Try Or Die/Worst Case Thinking Bad
We should promote thinkers who are immune to short-term alarmism and
prioritize probability based impacts.
Sunstein 2 (Cass, Karl N. Llewellyn Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago, Law School and
Department of Political Science, Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law,
http://www.yalelawjournal.org/pdf/112-1/SunsteinFINAL.pdf)

visualization or imagery matters a great deal to peoples reactions to

It should not be surprising, in this light, that

risks.104 When an image of a bad outcome is easily accessible , people will become greatly
concerned about a risk , holding probability constant.105 Consider the fact that when people are asked how much they
will pay for flight insurance for losses resulting from terrorism, they will pay more than
if they are asked how much they will pay for flight insurance from all causes .106 The evident explanation
for this peculiar result is that the word terrorism evokes vivid images of disaster , thus crowd ing out probability judgments .

Note also that when people discuss a low-probability risk, their concern rises even if the discussion

consists mostly of apparently trustworthy assurances that the likelihood of harm really is
infinitesimal .107 One reason is that the discussion makes it easier to visualize the risk and hence to fear it .
Note that if probability neglect is involved, this is not a point about the availability heuristic, which leads people not to neglect probability, but to

answer the question of probability by substituting a hard question (What is the statistical
risk?) with an easy question (Do salient examples readily come to mind?). The point here is not that
visualization makes an event seem more probable (though this is also often true), but that visualization makes the issue of probability less

relevant or even irrelevant . In theory, the distinction between use of the availability heuristic and probability neglect should not be obscure. In practice, of course, it will often be hard to

know whether the availability heuristic or probability neglect is driving behavior. Emotional reactions to risk, and probability neglect, also account for

alarmist bias. 109 When presented with competing accounts of danger, people tend to move toward the more alarming
account.110 In the key study demonstrating alarmist bias, W. Kip Viscusi presented subjects with information from two parties, industry and government. Some subjects were given low-risk
information from government and high-risk information from industry; other subjects were given high-risk information from government and low-risk information from industry. The basic

result was that people treated the high risk information as being more informative .111 This pattern held regardless of
whether the low-risk information came from industry or from government. Thus, people show an irrational asymmetry.112 If the discussion here is correct, one reason for this asymmetry is that

information , whatever its content, makes people focus on the worst case . There is a lesson for policy: It might not be helpful to
present people with a wide range of information, containing both more assuring and less assuring accounts.

concrete pictures of disaster can crowd out

The most sensible conclusion is that with respect to risks of injury or harm, vivid images and

other kinds of thoughts, including the crucial thought that the probability of disaster is
very small .113 If someone is predisposed to be worried, degrees of unlikeliness seem to provide no comfort, unless one can prove that harm is absolutely impossible, which itself is not
possible.114 With respect to hope, those who operate gambling casinos and state lotteries are well aware of the underlying mechanisms. They play on peoples emotions in the particular sense that
they conjure up palpable pictures of victory and easy living. With respect to risks, insurance companies and environmental groups do exactly the same. The point explains why societal concerns
about hazards such as nuclear power and exposure to extremely small amounts of toxic chemicals fail to recede in response to information about the very small probabilities of the feared
consequences from such hazards.115

F. Probability Neglect, Rival Rationality, and Dual Processing When it comes to risk, why do experts disagree with ordinary people? Many people think that the reason lies in the fact that ordinary
people have a rival rationality.116 On this view, experts are concerned with statistics, and, above all, with the number of lives at stake.117 By contrast, ordinary people are concerned with a range
of qualitative factors that make certain risks a special cause of concern. People care, for example, about whether risks are voluntarily incurred, potentially controllable, inequitably distributed,
especially dreaded, and so forth. For those who believe that ordinary people display a rival rationality, experts seem obtuse, fixated as they are on the bottom line numbers.118 On this view,
experts and ordinary people display rival rationalities, and each side must respect the insights and intelligence of the other.119 There is undoubtedly some truth in the idea that ordinary people
consider factors that the numbers alone obscure. People do care about whether risks come with special pain and suffering120 or whether they are inequitably distributed. If the costs of risk
avoidance are especially high, government should make special efforts to reduce the relevant risk;121 if a risk is concentrated among poor people, or members of a disadvantaged group,
government should be particularly concerned. But it is most doubtful that the idea of rival rationality can explain all or even most of the disagreement between experts and ordinary people. Often
experts are aware of the facts and ordinary people are not. And when people are far more concerned than experts about shark attacks, or nuclear power, or terrorism, probability neglect is a large
part of the reason. Hence a form of irrationality,122 not a different set of values, often helps explain the different risk judgments of experts and ordinary people. This point is closely connected with
the suggestion that an affect heuristic helps explain peoples concern, or lack of concern, with certain risks.123 When people have a strong negative affect toward a process or productarsenic or
nuclear powerthey are not likely to think much about the question of probability, and hence they will overreact from the normative standpoint. Here there is irrationality, not a rival rationality.
And when people have a strong positive affect toward a process or productin some communities, for example, alcohol or cigarettes, or herbal cures, or organic foodsthey are not likely to think of
the risks, even when the probability of harm is not low. Here too there is irrationality. My suggestion, then, is that probability neglect offers a new, if partial, explanation for the division between
experts and ordinary people in thinking about social hazardsone that raises fresh questions about claims of rival rationality. Of course, it is true that experts have their own biases;124 they are
often wrong. The point is not that experts are always right, but that when ordinary people disagree with experts, it is often not because of competing value judgments, but instead because ordinary
people are more subject to probability neglect.
 connected with the idea of dual processing, of much recent interest in
Indeed, we should see probability neglect, not as a tribute to rival rationality, but as closely

psychology, including the psychology of fear and moral judgment.125 According to dual-process theories, some cognitive operations,

involving system 1 are rapid, associative, and intuitive, whereas others, involving
system 2, are slow, complex, and often calculative or statistical.126 It is clear that different sectors of the brain are
involved in different kinds of processing, with some strong emotional reactions, including fear, bypass ing the cortex,

where more complex thinking occurs .127 In an especially interesting paper, it has been shown that certain strong and perhaps puzzling moral reactions
show activity in brain sectors that are associated with emotions.128 My suggestion here is that probability neglect, above all when intense emotions are involved, is a

central example of system 1of cognitive operations that are rapid, intuitive, and noncalculative. In many circumstances, rapid processing of this sort works
extremely well, as, for example, when someone is confronted with a bear in the forest or a large man with a knife in a dark alley (and immediately runs away). But

governments, and people making decisions under circumstances that permit

deliberation, can do a great deal better.

news sources can do a great deal to trigger

G. Notes on the Media and on Heterogeneity From what has been said thus far, it should be clear that

fear , simply by offering examples of situations in which the worst case has actually come to fruition. For crime, the point is well
established.129 Media coverage of highly unusual crimes makes people fearful of risks that they are most unlikely to face.130 When newspapers and magazines emphasize deaths from anthrax or
mad cow disease, we should expect a significant increase in public concern, not only because of the operation of the availability heuristic, but also because people will not naturally make sufficient

If newspapers, magazines, and news programs are stressing certain harms

adjustments from the standpoint of probability. In fact, there is a large warning here.

from remote risks , peoples concern is likely to be out of proportion to reality . Significant changes should therefore
be expected over time.131 Across nations, it is also easy to imagine substantial differences, in social fear, if small initial differences are magnified as a result of media influences.132

When the media emphasizes

For purposes of understanding those influences, we should distinguish between the availability heuristic and probability neglect.

particular incidents, those incidents will become cognitively available, and hence they
might seem to be far more probable than they are in fact . Stories involving violent crime and natural disasters will likely
trigger the availability heuristic. At the same time, an emotionally gripping incident might attract attention simply because people focus on the outcome and not its likelihood. In the real world, it will
usually be difficult to distinguish the effects of the two mechanisms. If probability information is disseminated but ignored, it is, of course, less likely that the availability heuristic is at work.

It is also true that individuals and even societies differ in their susceptibility to probability neglect. Of course, countless people take probability information into account even when the context

part by thinking about the low likelihood of

engages human emotions. Many people are able to correct their own predisposition to anxiety, in

harm. But it also seems clear that many people neglect probability information much of
the time, focusing insistently on the worst case (or, for that matter, the best). The arsenic experiment, mentioned above, displays a great
deal of individual heterogeneity in taking account of probability.133 Those who are peculiarly insensitive to probability information are likely to do poorly in many domains, including economic
markets; those who are unusually attentive to that information are likely to do well for just that reason. Perhaps there are demographic differences here; it is well known that some groups are less
concerned about most risks than are others.134 The difference in concern may stem, in part, from the fact that some groups are less likely to neglect probability.

On the social level, institutions can make a great deal of difference in decreasing or increasing susceptibility to probability neglect. Highly responsive democratic institutions, automatically translating

A more deliberative democracy would attempt to

public fear into law, will neglect probabilities when emotions are running high.

create institutions that have a degree of immunity from short-term public alarm. 135 Cost-benefit
analysis, for example, might serve as a check on regulation that would accomplish little good, or less good than is justified by the facts.136 The point raises the general question of the relationship
between probability neglect and regulatory law.

And reject worst case thinking cognitive science disproves that framework.
Sunstein 2 (Cass, Karl N. Llewellyn Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago, Law School and
Department of Political Science, Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law,
http://www.yalelawjournal.org/pdf/112-1/SunsteinFINAL.pdf)

If someone is predisposed to be worried, degrees of unlikeliness seem to provide no comfort,

unless one can prove that harm is absolutely impossible, which itself is not possible.1 [ A]ffect-
rich outcomes yield pronounced overweighting of small probabilities . . . .2
On Sept. 11, Americans entered a new and frightening geography , where the continents of
safety and danger seemed forever shifted. Is it safe to fly? Will terrorists wage germ
warfare? Where is the line between reasonable precaution and panic ? Jittery , uncertain and
assuming the worst , many people have answered these questions by forswearing air travel, purchasing
gas masks and radiation detectors , placing frantic calls to pediatricians demanding vaccinations against exotic diseases or rushing out to fill prescriptions
for Cipro, an antibiotic most experts consider an unnecessary defense against anthrax.3

I. RISKS, NUMBERS, AND REGULATION Consider the following problems: People live in a community near an abandoned hazardous waste
site. The community appears to suffer from an unusually high number of deaths and illnesses. Many members of the community fear that the
hazardous waste site is responsible for the problem. Administrative officials attempt to offer reassurance that the likelihood of adverse
health effects, as a result of the site, is extremely low.4 The reassurance is met with skepticism and distrust. An airplane, carrying people
from New York to California, has recently crashed. Although the source of the problem is unknown, many people suspect terrorism. In the
following weeks, many people who would otherwise fly are taking trains or staying home. Some of those same people acknowledge that the
statistical risk is exceedingly small. Nonetheless, they refuse to fly, in part because they do not want to experience the anxiety that would
come from flying.

An administrative agency is deciding whether to require labels on genetically modified food. According to experts within the agency, genetically modified food, as such, poses insignificant risks to
the environment and to human health. But many consumers disagree. Knowledge of genetic modification triggers strong emotions, and the labeling requirement is thought likely to have large effects
on consumer choice, notwithstanding expert claims that the danger is trivial. How should we understand human behavior in cases of this sort? My principal answer, the thesis of this Essay, is that

when intense emotions are engaged , people tend to focus on the adverse outcome , not on its
likelihood .

At the individual level , this phenomenon, which I shall call probability

That is, they are not closely attuned to the probability that harm will occur.

neglect, produces serious difficulties of various sorts, including excessive worry and unjustified behavioral
changes . When people neglect probability , they may also treat some risks as if they were nonexistent ,
even though the likelihood of harm, over a lifetime, is far from trivial. Probability neglect
can produce significant problems for law and regulation. As we shall see, regulatory agencies, no less than individuals, may
neglect the issue of probability, in a way that can lead to either indifference to real risks or
costly expenditures for little or no gain . If agencies are falling victim to probability neglect, they might well be violating relevant law.5
Indeed, we shall see that the idea of probability neglect helps illuminate a number of judicial decisions, which seem implicitly attuned to that idea, and which reveal an implicit behavioral rationality
in important pockets of federal administrative law. As we shall also see, an understanding of probability neglect helps show how government can heighten, or dampen, public concern about hazards.

political actors , no less than self-interested ones, can exploit probability neglect so as to promote
Public-spirited

attention to problems that may or may not deserve public concern. It will be helpful to begin, however, with some general background on individual and social judgments
about risks.

A. Cognition On the conventional view of rationality , probabilities matter a great deal to reactions to risks. But
emotions, as such, are not assessed independently; they are not taken to play a distinctive role.6 Of course, people might be risk-averse or risk-inclined. For example, it is possible that people will be

analysts usually believe that variations in probability should matter, so that there would be a
willing to pay $100 to eliminate a 1/1000 risk of losing $900. But

serious problem if people were willing to pay both $100 to eliminate a 1/1000 risk of
losing $900 and $100 to eliminate a 1/100,000 risk of losing $900 . Analysts do not generally ask, or care, whether
risk-related dispositions are a product of emotions or something

else.
in thinking about risks, people rely on certain heuristics and show
Of course, it is now generally agreed that

identifiable biases .7 Those who emphasize heuristics and biases are often seen as attacking the conventional view of rationality.8 In a way they are doing just that, but the
heuristicsand- biases literature has a highly cognitive focus , designed to establish how people proceed under conditions of uncertainty. The central question is this:
When people do not know about the probability associated with some risk, how do they think? It is clear that when people lack statistical information, they rely on certain heuristics, or rules of

the availability heuristic is probably the most important for purposes of understanding risk-
thumb, which serve to simplify their inquiry.9 Of these rules of thumb,

a class whose instances are easily retrieved will appear more numerous
related law.10 Thus, for example,

than a class of equal frequency whose instances are less retrievable.11 The point very much bears on private and
public responses to risks, suggesting, for example, that people will be especially responsive to the dangers of AIDS, crime, earthquakes, and nuclear power plant accidents if examples of these risks
are easy to recall.12
This is a point about how familiarity can affect the availability of instances. But salience is important as well. The impact of seeing a house burning on the subjective
probability of such accidents is probably greater than the impact of reading about a fire in the local paper.13 So, too, recent events will have a greater impact than
earlier ones. The point helps explain much risk-related behavior. For example, whether people will buy insurance for natural disasters is greatly affected by recent
experiences.14 If floods have not occurred in the immediate past, people who live on flood plains are far less likely to purchase insurance.15 In the aftermath of an
earthquake, the proportion of people carrying earthquake insurance rises sharplybut it declines steadily from that point, as vivid memories recede.16 For purposes
of law and regulation, the problem is that the availability heuristic can lead to serious errors of fact, in terms of both excessive controls on small risks that are
cognitively available and insufficient controls on large risks that are not.17 The cognitive emphasis of the heuristics-and-biases literature can be found as well in
prospect theory, a departure from expected utility theory that explains decision under risk.18 For present purposes, what is most important is that prospect theory
offers an explanation for simultaneous gambling and insurance.19 When given the choice, most people will reject a certain gain of X in favor of a gamble with an
expected value below X, if the gamble involves a small probability of riches. At the same time, most people prefer a certain loss of X to a gamble with an expected
value less than X, if the gamble involves a small probability of catastrophe.20 If expected utility theory is taken as normative, then people depart from the normative
theory of rationality in giving excessive weight to lowprobability outcomes when the stakes are high. Indeed, we might easily see prospect theory as emphasizing a
form of probability neglect. But in making these descriptive claims, prospect theory does not specify a special role for emotions. This is not a puzzling oversight, if it
counts as an oversight at all. For many purposes, what matters is what people choose, and it is unimportant to know whether their choices depend on cognition or
emotion, whatever may be the difference between these two terms.

B. Emotion
people do not think much about variations in probability and that
No one doubts, however, that in many domains,

emotions have a large effect on judgment and decisionmaking.21 Would a group of randomly selected people pay more to
reduce a 1/100,000 risk of getting a gruesome form of cancer than a similar group would pay to reduce a 1/200,000 risk of getting that form of cancer? Would the former group pay twice as much?
With some low-probability events, anticipated and actual emotions, triggered by the best-case or worst-case outcome, help to determine choice. Those who buy lottery tickets, for example, often

fantasize about the goods associated with a lucky outcome.22 With respect to risks of harm, many of our ordinary ways of speaking suggest strong emotions: panic,
hysteria, terror . People might refuse to fly, for example, not because they are currently frightened, but because they anticipate their own anxiety, and they want to avoid it. It has
been suggested that people often decide as they do because they anticipate their own regret.23 The same is true for fear. Knowing that they will be afraid, people may refuse to travel to Israel or
South Africa, even if they would much enjoy seeing those nations and even if they believe, on reflection, that their fear is not entirely rational. Recent evidence is quite specific.24 It suggests that

people greatly neglect significant differences in probability when the outcome is affect
richwhen it involves not simply a serious loss, but one that produces strong emotions, including fear .25
To be sure, the distinction between cognition and emotion is complex and contested.26 In the domain of risks, and most other places, emotional reactions are usually based on thinking; they are
hardly cognition-free. When a negative emotion is associated with a certain riskpesticides or nuclear power, for examplecognition plays a central role.27 For purposes of the analysis here, it is

when emotions are intense,

not necessary to say anything especially controversial about the nature of the emotion of fear. The only suggestion is that

calculation is less likely to occur , or at least that form of calculation that involves assessment of risks in terms of not only the
magnitude but also the probability of the outcome.

In political and market domains, people often focus on

Drawing on and expanding the relevant evidence, I will emphasize a general phenomenon here:

the desirability of the outcome in question and pay (too) little attention to the probability that a good or bad outcome will, in fact,
occur. It is in such cases that people fall prey to probability neglect , which is properly treated as a form of quasi-rationality .28 Probability neglect is
especially large when people focus on the worst possible case or otherwise are subject to strong emotions. When such emotions are at work, people do not give sufficient consideration to the

it is not fully rational to treat a 1%

likelihood that the worst case will actually occur. This is quasi-rational because, from the normative point of view,

chance of X as equivalent, or nearly equivalent, to a 99% chance of X, or even a 10%

chance of X . Because people suffer from probability neglect, and because neglecting probability is not fully rational, the phenomenon I identify raises new questions about the
widespread idea that ordinary people have a kind of rival rationality superior to that of experts.29 Most of the time, experts are concerned principally with the number of lives at stake,30 and for
that reason they will be closely attuned, as ordinary people are not, to the issue of probability.

By drawing attention to probability neglect, I do not mean to suggest that most people, most of the time, are indifferent to large variations in the probability that a risk will come to fruition. Large
variations can, and often do, make a differencebut when emotions are engaged, the difference is far less than the standard theory predicts. Nor do I suggest that probability neglect is impervious
to circumstances. If the costs of neglecting probability are placed on screen, then people will be more likely to attend to the question of probability.31 In this light it is both mildly counterintuitive
and reasonable, for example, to predict that people would be willing to pay less, in terms of dollars and waiting time, to reduce lowprobability risks of an airplane disaster if they are frequent
travelers. An intriguing study finds exactly that effect.32 For similar reasons, market pressures are likely to dampen the impact of probability neglect, ensuring that, say, risks of 1/10,000 are treated
differently from risks of 1/1,000,000, even if individuals, in surveys, show relative insensitivity to such differences.

Acknowledging all this, I emphasize three central points. First, differences in probability will often affect behavior far less
than they should or than conventional theory would predict. Second, private behavior, even when real dollars are involved,33
can display insensitivity to the issue of probability, especially when emotions are intensely engaged. Third, and most important, the demand for legal

intervention can be greatly affected by probability neglect, so that government may end up engaging in extensive regulation
precisely because intense emotional reactions are making people relatively insensitive to the (low) probability that the relevant dangers will ever come to fruition.

C. Law It is not at all clear how the law should respond to probability neglect. But at a minimum, the phenomenon raises serious legal issues in administrative law, at least under statutes banning
agencies from acting unless they can show a significant risk34 or can establish that the benefits of regulation outweigh the costs.35 If agencies are neglecting the issue of probability (perhaps
because the public is doing so as well), they may well be acting unlawfully. Indeed, the law of judicial review shows an inchoate understanding of probability neglect, treating it as a problem for
which judicial invalidation is a solution.36 The only qualification is that the relevant law remains in an embryonic state. There is much to be done, especially at the agency level, to ensure that
government is alert to the probability that harm will actually occur.

Outside of the context of administrative law, an understanding of probability neglect will help us to make better predictions about the public demand for law. When a bad outcome is highly salient
and triggers strong emotions, government will be asked to do something about it, even if the probability that the bad outcome will occur is low. Political participants of various stripes, focusing on
the worst case, are entirely willing to exploit probability neglect. Those who encourage people to purchase lottery tickets, focusing on the best case, do the same. An understanding of probability
neglect simultaneously helps show why jurors, and ordinary officials, are not likely to be moved much by a showing that before the fact, the harm was not likely to occur. For many people, what
matters is that the harm did occur, not that it was unlikely to do so before the fact. For law, many of the most difficult questions are normative in character: Should government take account of
variations in the probability that harms will occur? Should government respond to intense fears that involve statistically remote risks? When people suffer from probability neglect, should law and
policy do the same thing? At first glance, we might think that even if people are neglecting probability, government and law at least should notthat the tort system and administrators should pay a
great deal of attention to probability in designing institutions. If government wants to insulate itself from probability neglect, it will create institutions designed to ensure that genuine risks, rather
than tiny ones, receive the most concern. Such institutions will not necessarily require agencies to discuss the worst-case scenario.37 And if government is attempting to increase public concern
about a genuine danger, it should not emphasize statistics and probabilities, but should instead draw attention to the worst-case scenario.

If government is attempting to decrease public concern with a risk that has a tiny probability of coming to fruition, it may be ineffective if it emphasizes the issue of probability; indeed, it may do
better if it changes the subject or stresses instead the affirmative social values associated with running the risk.38 On the other hand, public fear, however unwarranted, may be intractable, in the
sense that it may be impervious to efforts at reassurance. And if public fear is intractable, it will cause serious problems, partly because fear is itself extremely unpleasant and partly because fear is
likely to influence conduct, possibly producing wasteful and excessive private precautions. If so, a governmental response, via regulatory safeguards, would appear to be justified if the benefits, in
terms of fear reduction, justify the costs.

II. PROBABILITY NEGLECT: THE BASIC PHENOMENON When it comes to risk, a key question is whether people can
imagine or visualize the worst-case outcome .39 When the worst case produces intense
fear , surprisingly little role is played by the stated probability that that outcome will
occur.40 An important function of strong emotions is thus to drive out quantitative judgments , including judgments
about probability , by making the best case or the worst case seem highly salient. 41 But it is important to note that
probability neglect can occur even when emotions are not involved. A great deal of evidence shows that whether or not emotions are involved, people are relatively insensitive to differences in
probabilities, at least when the relevant probabilities are low.

A. Insensitivity to Variations Among Low Probabilities Do people care about probability at all? Of course they do; a risk of 1/100,000 is significantly less troublesome than a risk of 1/1000. But many
people, much of the time, show a remarkable unwillingness to attend to the question of probability. Several studies show that when people are seeking relevant information, they often do not try to
learn about probability at all. One study, for example, finds that in deciding whether to purchase warranties for consumer products, people do not spontaneously point to the probability of needing
repair as a reason for the purchase.42 Another study finds that those making hypothetical, risky managerial decisions rarely ask for data on probabilities.43 Or consider a study involving children and
adolescents,44 in which the following question was asked: Susan and Jennifer are arguing about whether they should wear seat belts when they ride in a car. Susan says that you should. Jennifer says
you shouldnt . . . . Jennifer says that she heard of an accident where a car fell into a lake and a woman was kept from getting out in time because of wearing her seat belt . . . . What do you think
about this?45 In answering that question, many subjects did not think about probability at all.46 One exchange took the following form: A: Well, in that case I dont think you should wear a seat belt.
Q (interviewer): How do you know when thats gonna happen? A: Like, just hope it doesnt! Q: So, should you or shouldnt you wear seat belts? A: Well, tell-you-the-truth we should wear seat belts.
Q: How come? A: Just in case of an accident. You wont get hurt as much as you will if you didnt wear a seat belt. Q: Ok, well what about these kinds of things, when people get trapped? A: I dont
think you should, in that case.47 These answers might seem odd and idiosyncratic, but we might reasonably suppose that some of the time, both children and adults focus primarily on bad scenarios,
without thinking a great deal about the question of probability.

Many studies find that significant differences in low probabilities have little impact on decisions. This finding is in sharp conflict with the standard view of rationality, which suggests that peoples
willingness to pay for small risk reductions ought to be nearly proportional to the size of the reduction.48 Perhaps these findings reflect peoples implicit understanding that in these settings, the
relevant probability is low, but not zero, and that finer distinctions are unhelpful. (What does a risk of 1/100,000 really mean? How different is it, for an individual, from a risk of 1/20,000 or
1/600,000?) In an especially striking study, Kunreuther and his coauthors found that mean willingness to pay insurance premiums did not vary among risks of 1/100,000, 1/1,000,000, and
1/10,000,000.49 They also found basically the same willingness to pay for insurance premiums for risks ranging from 1/650, to 1/6300, to 1/68,000.50

The study just described involved a between subjects design; subjects considered only one risk, and the same people were not asked to consider the various risks at the same time. Low
probabilities are not likely to be terribly meaningful to most people, but most educated people would know that a 1/100,000 risk is worse than 1/1,000,000 risk. When low-probability risks are seen
in isolation and are not assessed together, we have an example of the problem of evaluability.51 For most people, most of the time, it is very difficult to evaluate a low probability, and hence
isolated decisions will pick up small or no variations between peoples assessments of very different risks.

But several studies have a within subjects design, exposing people simultaneously to risks of different probabilities, and even here, the differences in probabilities have little effect on decisions. An
early study examined peoples willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce various fatality risks. The central finding was that the mean WTP to reduce such risks was, for over 40% of the respondents,
unaffected by a large variation in the probability of harm, even though expected utility theory would predict significant effects from such variations.52 A later study found that for serious injuries,
WTP to reduce the risk by 12/100,000 was only 20% higher than WTP to reduce the same risk by 4/100,000, even though standard theory would predict a WTP three times as high.53 These results
are not unusual. Lin and Milon attempted to elicit peoples willingness to pay to reduce the risk of illness from eating oysters.54 There was little sensitivity to variations in probability of illness.55
Another study found little change in WTP across probability variations involving exposure to pesticide residues on fresh produce.56 A similar anomaly was found in a study involving hazardous
wastes, where WTP actually decreased as the stated fatality risk reduction increased.57

There is much to say about the general insensitivity to significant variations within the category of low-probability events. It would be difficult to produce a rational explanation for this insensitivity;
recall the standard suggestion that WTP for small risk reductions should be roughly proportional to the size of the reduction.58 Why dont people think in this way? An imaginable explanation is that

in the abstract, most people simply do not know how to evaluate low probabilities. A risk of 7/100,000 seems small; a risk of
4/100,000 also seems small.59 Most people would prefer a risk of 4/100,000 to a risk of 7/100,000, and I have noted that joint evaluation improves evaluability, which would otherwise be
extremely difficult.60 But even when the preference is clear, both risks seem small, and hence it is not at all clear that a proportional increase in WTP will follow. As suggested by the findings of
Kunreuther and his coauthors, it is likely that in a between-subjects design, WTP to eliminate a risk of 4/100,000 would be about the same as WTP to eliminate a risk of 7/100,000, simply because the
small difference would not matter when each risk is taken in isolation.
AT: Waste Turn
 Better Food Quality Turns Waste 2AC
The plan doesnt lead to more food waste Increases in the quality of food
leads to more consumption not less.
Anderson, Professor of Agriculture and Resource Economics @ UC Berkley, 2017
Michael, How the quality of school lunch affects students academic performance 5/3
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/brown-center-chalkboard/2017/05/03/how-the-quality-of-
school-lunch-affects-students-academic-performance/

Moreover, we find no evidence that contracting with a private company to provide healthier
meals changes the number of school lunches sold. This is important for two reasons. First, it reinforces our
conclusion that the test score improvements we measure are being driven by differences in
food quality, and not food quantity. A number of recent studies have shown that providing
(potentially) hungry kids with greater access to food through the National School Lunch Program
can lead to improved test scores . We are among the very few studies to focus on quality,
rather than food quantity (i.e., calories). Second, some critics of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act worried that by
raising the nutritional standards of school lunches that fewer children would eat the food,
thereby unintentionally harming the students that the law was designed to help. Our results provide some
reassurance that this is not likely to be the case.
 Observational Studies Disprove The Turn 2AC
Best observational studies also disprove healthier options dont cause more
food waste
Brody, Health Columnist at NYT, 6/5/2017
Jane, Feeding Young Minds: The Importance of School Lunches
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/05/well/feeding-young-minds-the-importance-of-school-
lunches.html

Schools have complained that children dont like the healthier meals and are more likely to throw
the food away. However, an analysis of three large studies by the Pew Charitable Trusts found that
under the improved nutrition rules, food waste actually declined in 12 Connecticut schools ; children
consumed more fruits and vegetables in eight elementary schools in southeast Texas; and in
four elementary schools studied by the Harvard School of Public Health, children ate more of their entree and
vegetable servings and more children took a serving of fruit. A study conducted by Cornell University researchers at a New
York high school in 2012 found that making healthier foods more convenient for students
increased their sale by 18 percent and decreased the grams of unhealthy foods consumed by
nearly 28 percent. An earlier Cornell study found that simply moving the salad bar from a corner of the lunchroom to the center increased the sales and consumption of this healthier fare.
Offering students a choice between two vegetable options and having them pay cash for
unhealthy items like desserts and soft drinks, the findings suggested, may enhance
consumption of healthier foods without reducing revenue or participation in school lunch
programs . While the studies are not conclusive, they suggest that with a few simple steps, schools may have an impact on the foods students eat.

3. No impact to the turn Even if there is some more waste, on average it leads
to better academics thats Brody.
 No Waste 1AR Leads to More Consumption
The turn is wrong theres been a 70% increase in consumption of school meals
than before the Act.
Ettinger, Organic Authority Contributor, 2017
Jill, USDA Begins Systematic Dismantling of Obamas Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act 5/9
http://www.organicauthority.com/usda-begins-systematic-dismantling-of-obamas-healthy-
hunger-free-kids-act/

But according to new USDA Secretary Sonny Purdue, the program needs retooling because of
reports that many kids arent embracing the healthier menus. If kids arent eating the food, and
its ending up in the trash, they arent getting any nutrition, he said on a recent elementary school visit in Leesburg,
Virginia. Thats a contentious position though as research shows kids are actually eating the

lunches and enjoying them. A 2014 study published in the journal Childhood Obesity found that 70
percent of kids preferred the healthier meals than the typical school lunches served before
the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act . The study polled more than 500 schools and found that the incidences of uneaten
meals or portions of the meals were down overall, particularly in schools where free or reduced-price meals were most common.
 Indict of Neg Authors 2AC
Their data is wrong historic accounts for decreased amount of school lunches
bought is due to the HHFKA increasing the amount of free lunches given, not
due to backlash over the aff.
Hong, 2015
Irene, University of Pennsylvania Undergraduate Research, The Impact of the Healthy, Hunger-
Free Kids Act of 2010 on National School Meal Participation Rates 2/22
http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1222&context=curej

According to the GAO, this decrease in total number of students eating school lunches nationwide from the
2010-2011 school year was driven primarily by a decrease of 1.6 million students paying full price for meals,

despite increases in the number of students eating school lunches who receive free meals. lviii In
its analysis of these declines in nationwide participation, the GAO cites evidence that they can be attributed in part to

childrens reactions against the implementation of new lunch content and nutritional standards. Out of the 48 states surveyed by
the GAO, 33 reported challenges with students expressing dislike for foods like whole grain Hong 19 products, vegetables, beans, legumes, and red-orange subgroups. lix The report also noted, however,

that the policy of paid lunch equity, which caused many school districts to raise the price of their

paid lunches, may have also had some impact on participation rates. (Paid lunch equity is the HHFKA-mandated requirement that
school districts charge children as much for paid lunches as they receive in reimbursement for the meals that they serve free from the federal government.) The GAO notes that the paid lunch equity provision
was not fully implemented until the 2011-2012 school year, when the numbers for participation in paid meals declined most rapidly. lx Figure 5. This is a timeline of the implementation of the HHFKA policy of

Note that the implementation of paid

paid lunch equity, which took effect at the beginning of the 2011-2012 school year and was finalized by the end of the year.

lunch equity coincides with the sharp decline in paid meal participation in the 2011-2012
school year found in Figure 4. lxi The GAO reports that there are situational factors within individual schools that can explain the decline in paid meals apart from the HHFKA. For example, while
school food officials in two school districts believed that the policy of paid lunch equity may have contributed to the decline in paid lunches, they also noted the ready availability of alternative food options in
vending machines, a la carte lines, or off campus, as sometimes having a greater impact in deterring students from paid lunch participation. Other school food authorities cited the combination of a short lunch

period and long lines in the cafeteria as a reason for many students to seek out alternative food options or to simply not eat at all. lxii Thus, the decrease in participation
in paid meals does not necessarily reflect a failure of the HHFKA , so much as the fact that students who can afford to
purchase full price meals often have the luxury of seeking out alternative food options on campus (through vending machines or a la carte lines) and off campus (through local eateries) during the lunch period.

Thus, the GAO report suggests that number of students participating in the National School
Lunch Program has decreased primarily due to the departure of large numbers of full price
students from the program. This decline in full price meals masks the positive increase in free and
reduced meals served through the National School Lunch Program, a trend that has occurred since 2000 and became more dramatic with the passage of the HHFKA. Figures 6 and 7
below illustrate the increase in free and reduced price lunches, both in terms of absolute number of students served as well as proportion of total lunches served. These figures have increased rapidly since 2008,
roughly coinciding with the Great Recession. In Figure 6, if we examine the proportion of school lunches that are free and reduced, they have together comprised a greater proportion of all lunches than full price
lunches have. The proportions (increase in proportion of free and reduced price lunches and decrease in proportion of paid lunches) have become more dramatic since the passage of the HHFKA in 2010. National
School Lunch Program participation data provided by the USDA helps elucidate the sources of the debate about the impact of the HHFKA on school meal participation rates. While the School Nutrition Association
is correct in its observation that the total number of meals served decreased from about 5,278,300 meals in 2010 to 5,007,700 meals in 2014 (approximately a 5.13% decrease), the conclusions drawn from this
decrease are oversimplified. As noted in the GAO report, while the number of meals served has indeed decreased since the implementation of the HHFKA, there has been an unprecedented increase in the number
of free meals served during the same time period. While the total number of lunches served through the National School Lunch Program has declined since 2010, the number of free meals served and,

The disaggregation of school lunch participation data shows

consequently, the proportion of free and reduced price meals have increased.

that participation is rising significantly in districts that serve primarily low-income children.
Students who are eligible for free and reduced price meals qualify based on the years federal
poverty line, and these students arguably need school meal access more than non-eligible
students need it. Ultimately, both the proportion and number of students receiving free and
reduced price meals is increasing, and that is a good sign for the underserved communities of
America
 Indict of Neg Authors 1AR
Reject their evidence its based on conservative propaganda and outdated
studies.
Sifferlin, TIME Health Contributor, 2016
Alexandra, Healthier School Lunch Rules Are Working, Study Finds
http://time.com/4163451/healthier-school-lunch-study/

In an editorial about the new study, Erin R. Hager of

the University of Maryland School of Medicine and Lindsey
Turner of Boise State University write: "These groups claim that meal participation has dropped as
a result of the HHFKA; however, these assertions are based on old data and an unfounded
connection between dropping rates and the new standards...The [new study] adds to a growing
and substantial amount of empirical evidence showing that school meal changes from the HHFKA
have resultedin significant, valuable, and effective changes in not only the food environment but
also in student behavior and health outcomes."
AT: School Budgets Turn
 No Link 2AC
No link schools were already integrating the aff into their budget since 2010.
And the plan doesnt increase costs on schools federal support and increased
revenue offsets losses leading the aff to pay for itself.
Center for Science in the Public Interest, 2016
Independent Science Based think tank, 8/12 The Dollars and Cents of the New School Meal
Regulations https://cspinet.org/resource/dollars-and-cents-new-school-meal-regulations

USDA estimated that implementation of the updated school meal standards would increase
total costs by roughly 8 percent or $3.2 billion over five years. The Healthy, HungerFree Kids Act
(HHFKA) included a package of provisions designed to increase funding for healthy school
meals. These provisions help increase revenue to school food service programs to facilitate
implementation of the updated school meal standards. Section 201 provides a 6centperlunch
increase in reimbursement for school lunches that meet the new school meal standards, adding an estimated
$1.5 billion over five years if all schools met the standards. Section 205 requires school districts to gradually
close the gap between paid meal revenues and free meal revenues to ensure that funds meant
for providing healthy foods for lowincome children are not diverted to other purposes. USDA
estimates that closing this gap would raise $323 million for school meal programs over the
next five years with minimal impact on participation in the NSLP, even among lowincome children. USDA
issued guidance that allows schools to be exempted from the paid meal equity provision if they
are:

o certified as meeting the updated nutrition standards;

o running a surplus (exceed a three-month operating balance); and

o not in need of funds to meet program requirements or to address deficiencies in program operations. Section 206 is designed to
ensure that the prices charged for foods sold in vending machines, a la carte lines, and school
stores cover the costs to produce and sell them. A national mealcost study conducted by USDA showed that revenues from nonprogram
foods (such as foods sold a la carte) do not cover their costs and schools often use federal meal subsidies to offset their production. USDA estimates that

implementation of the provision will bring an additional $7.2 billion in revenue to school food
service accounts over the next five years and will result in over 900,000 more children
participating in the school meal programs.
 No Link 1AR
No link Federal management solves cost issues through grants and increase in
meal prices offsets costs.
Osmon, OSU Researcher, 2012
Molly, Financial Costs and Benefits of Healthy, Hunger Free Kids Act for Ohios Elementary
Schools
https://polisci.osu.edu/sites/polisci.osu.edu/files/Financial%20Costs%20and%20Benefits%20of
%20Healthy,%20Hunger%20Free%20Kids%20Act%20for%20Ohio's%20Elementary%20Schools_0
.pdf

The Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act (HHFKA), implemented by President Obama in 2010, was created in order to improve child
nutrition in response to the rise of childhood obesity and to provide new guidelines for the National School Lunch Program (NSLP). Section 205 of the
HHFKA sets forth a federal mandate requiring all participating schools in the NSLP to raise the
price of a paid lunch in order to generate enough revenue to cover the costs of
implementation of the HHFKA . School meal budgets for 86 randomly selected elementary
schools in the State of Ohio were analyzed to determine the efficiency of this policy by determining the amount of schools deficits prior to a
raise in rates, and to determine how much deficit, or lack of deficit, schools experience after raising rates. Also analyzed, is the demand for school lunches as the price increases.

Through analysis, it is clear that the price increase on lunches is allowing schools to decrease
their overall deficit, and therefore the provision in the federal guidelines is helping to cover
overall costs in regards to the costs of production for the school lunch program.

And schools already priced in the aff since 2010 it doesnt overwhelm their
budgets and revenue losses were short term.
Belluz, Vox Contributor, 2017
Julia, The Trump administrations tone-deaf move on school lunches 5/3
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/5/2/15508182/sonny-perdue-usda-school-
lunches

Politically, rolling
back school lunch standards may be a little trickier, Wootan added, as the majority of
parents support the legislation. And while students and schools did complain about the
standards in the early days, and even experienced some revenue losses, theyve largely
adapted to them with no long-term financial impact . To date, nearly all US schools are in compliance. That may
be why the administration, at least for now, is treading softly.
AT: State Budgets DA
 State Budgets NUQ 2AC
State budgets are decked now pensions and health care liabilities.
Pew Trusts Center, 2/2/2017
Insights From Fiscal 50s Key Measures of State Fiscal Health
http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/multimedia/data-visualizations/2014/fiscal-50#ind0

The slow pace of tax revenue growth has left many with little or no wiggle room in their budgets .
Twenty-three states still collect less tax revenue than at their recession-era peaks , after adjusting for inflation,
and most have a thinner financial cushion than they did before the last downturn. In addition, 18 states employment
rates still trail 2007 levels. Despite these challenges, personal income in all states has bounced back above pre-recession figures, though growth has
fallen short of historic norms . Tax revenue. Nationally, total state tax revenue recovered in mid-2013 from its plunge during the recession. But
state to state, the recovery has been uneven because of differences in economic conditions as well
as tax policy choices. Tax collections in 27 states were higher in the second quarter of 2016 than at their peaks before or during the downturn, after adjusting for inflation.

States with below-peak tax revenue still have less purchasing power than they did more than
seven years ago. Overall, tax revenue recovery has been slower than after each of the three
previous recessions. Reserves and balances. States have only partially rebuilt their financial cushions after tapping them to plug budget gaps during the
recession. At the end of fiscal 2015, only 19 states could cover more government expenses using rainy day funds and general fund balances than they could have in fiscal 2007,

Despite a U.S.
just before the recession. Three states had less than a weeks worth of reserves set aside for budget shortfalls. Employment-to-population ratio.

economy that has added jobs each month for six years, no state could boast that its core labor pool had
fully recovered from the Great Recession as of the year that ended in June 2016. The share of prime-working-age adults (ages 25
to 54) with a job remained below pre-recession levels nationally and in 18 states. Employment
rates for this population were lower than in 2007 in another 30 states and higher in two, but not by statistically significant amounts,
so the results were inconclusive. State personal income. Personal income in all states has climbed above levels seen at the Great Recessions onset, signaling a widespread
economic recovery. But growth since the start of the recession has varied, ranging from the equivalent of less than 1 percent a year in Illinois and Nevada to almost 5 percent a
year in North Dakota. Personal income in six statesAlaska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyomingfell in the third quarter of 2016 from a year

earlier. Additional challenges await states Even states that have overcome the effects of the recession may face
financial pressures that could shape their budgets now and for years to come . A major issue for a
is how to cope with an accumulation of unfunded public pension and retiree health
number of states

care liabilities , which total more than $1.5 trillion nationwide. In addition, debate among U.S.
lawmakers over financing for Medicaid, which is jointly funded by federal and state governments, has sparked fresh
uncertainty over how much of the costs states will pay. The health care program accounts for the largest share of total federal aid
to states. Another challenge for states is tax revenue volatility, which can confound policymakers
best efforts to balance budgets. Debt and unfunded retirement costs . Unfunded pension
benefits were the largest, most prominent , and fastest-growing of a selection of future costs
facing states as of 2013. States reported $968 billion in unfunded pension coststhe equivalent of 6.9 percent of 50-state personal

income, as well as $587 billion in unfunded retiree health care liabilities (4.2 percent of personal income) and $518 billion in

outstanding debt (3.7 percent). If not properly managed, these costs can limit future budget flexibility and raise

borrowing costs . State Medicaid spending. The share of states own money spent on Medicaid grew in all but two
statesNew York and North Dakotabetween fiscal 2000 and 2014. States increases varied widely, from less than 2 cents to about 8 cents more per dollar of state-generated

exerting different degrees of budget pressure . Medicaid is most state governments

revenue,

second biggest expense, after K-12 education. Federal share of state revenue. The federal government is the second-largest source of state revenue
accounting for 30.8 percent of the total in fiscal 2014meaning that federal budget decisions also play a key role in state budgets. But states reliance on federal funds varies
widely, ranging from about 17 percent of revenue in North Dakota to almost 41 percent in Mississippi. The share of states revenue made up by federal dollars was largely
unchanged in fiscal 2014 even as expanded Medicaid grants began to flow to some states. Tax revenue volatility. Some states experience
greater swings in tax revenue from year to year than others do, leading to surprise shortfalls or windfalls that can make it hard
to manage budgets. Alaska experienced the greatest volatility over the past two decades and South Dakota the least,
after removing the effects of tax policy changes. Taxes on corporate income and oil and mineral extraction were consistently more volatile than other major tax streams.
 State Budgets NUQ 1AR
New budget plans across the country collapse their budgets creates mass tax
hikes
Marchard, SOAZ News, 2/8/2017
Ross, Some state budgets look troubling for taxpayers https://soaznewsx.com/some-state-
budgets-look-troubling-for-taxpayers/

taxpayers flocked to the ballot boxes to win a respite from the tired tax-and-spend
Only eleven weeks ago,

proposals of federal and state politicians. Any celebration seems to be premature , though, as governors of all
political stripes unveil expensive budget proposals for the coming year . New York Governor Andrew Cuomo
(D) is among the biggest offenders , laying out what the Buffalo News calls a cornucopia of tax and fee
hikes. Exhibit A of this tax smorgasbord is an audacious attempt to bailout three nuclear
power plants . Cuomos plan would cause a rate increase for New York electricity ratepayers. Taxpayers will also be on the hook for
an increase in electricity costs for public buildings. Another misguided idea is to expand sales
taxes on products sold on the internet, regardless of the physical location of the seller. The Governor claims that the expanded tax would
increase revenue by more than $200 million in the next two years, but this math fails to take economic incentives into account. Unlike older shoppers beholden to their favorite

biggest losers will

brick-and-mortar locations, younger web-savvy customers can easily ditch large internet marketplaces (like Etsy) in response to a tax hike. The

be fledgling digital entrepreneurs, who sell their products on well-known internet venues to
avoid large fixed expenses like rent. The Governor also plans on slapping a 10 cent-per-mL tax
on electronic cigarettes and vapor products, hoping to reel in around $5 million a year. This reckless move
threatens public health, by making it harder to obtain products that aid in the process of
quitting smoking. An August 2015 Public Health England review of the available evidence concluded that e-cigarettes are 95 percent less harmful than regular
cigarettes, and can thus be a potent harm-reduction tool for heavy smokers. Taxing these products into -oblivion would thus likely

carry substantial long-term health-care costs , something that the Governors budget conveniently omits. Increased taxes on tobacco
products rarely raise the revenue projected. In fact, there are cases where revenue is lost after tobacco tax increases. New York lost $400 million in

revenue over 5 years after implementing the highest cigarette tax in the United States. Ill-
conceived tax proposals are hardly limited to Democratic executives . Maine Republican
Governor Paul LePage recently unveiled his own tax hike bonanza. In addition to punishing residents for
getting haircuts and going to the movies, LePage seeks to gauge providers of digital streaming
services such as Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Music. These taxes, which will inevitably be passed along to customers, have
consequences beyond making leisure less affordable. Streaming services are a powerful
antidote to online piracy, a practice that robs artists and decreases incentives to produce great
work. Streaming subscribers that find these new taxes to be too onerous will be lured to gray
websites of dubious legality. In addition to the immeasurable harm caused by increasing piracy, these unintended
consequences will mean less-than-estimated revenue. Consequently, the legislature will likely have to
raise taxes on more tangible items to meet spending targets. Taxes on incomes will already
increase by three percentage points by the end of the decade, as the result on a recent referendum. Maintaining some of the
highest state tax rates in the nation will only result in more capital flight and a smaller tax
base. As the Tax Foundation has documented, increases in income tax coincide with migration to lower-tax states.
 Obesity Turn 2AC
Obesity related health care costs turns state budgets which makes school
funding worse.
Werman, Brookings, 2014
Aurite, Obesity Costs Evident at the State Level 12/12 https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-
front/2014/12/12/obesity-costs-evident-at-the-state-level/

At the state-level, a substantial share between 6 percent and 20 percentof Medicaid spending goes to adult
obesity-related expenditures. In 2006, Oregon (18.8 percent), Arizona (17.0 percent) and Colorado (16.2 percent) saw the highest shares, while Kansas
(6.5 percent), Virginia (6.8 percent) and North Dakota (7.5 percent) devoted the smallest shares of Medicaid spending to obesity-related expenditures. On a state-by-state basis,
Medicare spending due to obesity was substantial, too, with shares varying from 5.2 percent to 10.2 percent in 2004. The highest percent of obesity-attributable spending was
found in Ohio (10.2 percent), Michigan (10.0 percent) and West Virginia (9.9 percent), while the lowest was in Hawaii (5.2 percent), Arizona (6.2 percent), and New Mexico (6.6

These adult obesity-attributable shares, coupled with high expenditures for Medicare and
percent).

Medicaid, translate into $91.6 billion in federal outlays for obesity-related expenses through
federal health programs. Medicare and Medicaid spending on obesity are driven largely by
aggregate expenditures in each state, with the combined cost for these programs ranging from
$119.4 million in Wyoming to $10.4 billion in California . Obesity-attributable Medicaid
spending was highest in California ($6.1 billion), New York ($5.9 billion), and Texas ($2.7 billion),
while Medicare spending was highest in California ($4.2 billion), New York ($3.2 billion), and
Florida ($3.1 billion).
 Obesity Turn 1AR
Obesity related costs turn the DA strains state budgets
TakePart, Digital News Service, 2015
Americas Most Obese States Tend to Have One Thing in Common 5/28
http://www.takepart.com/article/2015/05/28/americas-most-obese-states-have-this-in-
common

So, Why Should You Care? Obesity is a major contributor to a slew of serious health ailments, such as high blood
pressure, heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and cancer. The expense of treating obesity-related problems could also

end up being a strain on state and national budgets . With poverty rates going up, Americans
ability to afford fruits and veggies could be limited. And, as those usually arent available at the
local corner store, folks living in impoverished communities are being set up for soaring disease
rates and health care costs.
 No Link 2AC
No link schools were already integrating the aff into their budget since 2010.
And the plan doesnt increase costs on schools federal support and increased
revenue offsets losses leading the aff to pay for itself.
Center for Science in the Public Interest, 2016
Independent Science Based think tank, 8/12 The Dollars and Cents of the New School Meal
Regulations https://cspinet.org/resource/dollars-and-cents-new-school-meal-regulations

USDA estimated that implementation of the updated school meal standards would increase
total costs by roughly 8 percent or $3.2 billion over five years. The Healthy, HungerFree Kids Act
(HHFKA) included a package of provisions designed to increase funding for healthy school
meals. These provisions help increase revenue to school food service programs to facilitate
implementation of the updated school meal standards. Section 201 provides a 6centperlunch
increase in reimbursement for school lunches that meet the new school meal standards, adding an estimated
$1.5 billion over five years if all schools met the standards. Section 205 requires school districts to gradually
close the gap between paid meal revenues and free meal revenues to ensure that funds meant
for providing healthy foods for lowincome children are not diverted to other purposes. USDA
estimates that closing this gap would raise $323 million for school meal programs over the
next five years with minimal impact on participation in the NSLP, even among lowincome children. USDA
issued guidance that allows schools to be exempted from the paid meal equity provision if they
are:

o certified as meeting the updated nutrition standards;

o running a surplus (exceed a three-month operating balance); and

o not in need of funds to meet program requirements or to address deficiencies in program operations. Section 206 is designed to
ensure that the prices charged for foods sold in vending machines, a la carte lines, and school
stores cover the costs to produce and sell them. A national mealcost study conducted by USDA showed that revenues from nonprogram
foods (such as foods sold a la carte) do not cover their costs and schools often use federal meal subsidies to offset their production. USDA estimates that

implementation of the provision will bring an additional $7.2 billion in revenue to school food
service accounts over the next five years and will result in over 900,000 more children
participating in the school meal programs.
 No Link 1AR
No link Federal management solves cost issues through grants and increase in
meal prices offsets costs.
Osmon, OSU Researcher, 2012
Molly, Financial Costs and Benefits of Healthy, Hunger Free Kids Act for Ohios Elementary
Schools
https://polisci.osu.edu/sites/polisci.osu.edu/files/Financial%20Costs%20and%20Benefits%20of
%20Healthy,%20Hunger%20Free%20Kids%20Act%20for%20Ohio's%20Elementary%20Schools_0
.pdf

The Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act (HHFKA), implemented by President Obama in 2010, was created in order to improve child
nutrition in response to the rise of childhood obesity and to provide new guidelines for the National School Lunch Program (NSLP). Section 205 of the
HHFKA sets forth a federal mandate requiring all participating schools in the NSLP to raise the
price of a paid lunch in order to generate enough revenue to cover the costs of
implementation of the HHFKA . School meal budgets for 86 randomly selected elementary
schools in the State of Ohio were analyzed to determine the efficiency of this policy by determining the amount of schools deficits prior to a
raise in rates, and to determine how much deficit, or lack of deficit, schools experience after raising rates. Also analyzed, is the demand for school lunches as the price increases.

Through analysis, it is clear that the price increase on lunches is allowing schools to decrease
their overall deficit, and therefore the provision in the federal guidelines is helping to cover
overall costs in regards to the costs of production for the school lunch program.

And schools already priced in the aff since 2010 it doesnt overwhelm their
budgets and revenue losses were short term.
Belluz, Vox Contributor, 2017
Julia, The Trump administrations tone-deaf move on school lunches 5/3
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/5/2/15508182/sonny-perdue-usda-school-
lunches

Politically, rolling
back school lunch standards may be a little trickier, Wootan added, as the majority of
parents support the legislation. And while students and schools did complain about the
standards in the early days, and even experienced some revenue losses, theyve largely
adapted to them with no long-term financial impact . To date, nearly all US schools are in compliance. That may
be why the administration, at least for now, is treading softly.
AT: Privatization CP
 Privatization Fails DC Proves 2AC
Privatization fails DC proves
King, WTOP News Contributor, 2016
Kristi, Audit: DCs privatized school lunch program didnt save money or improve meals
10/7 http://wtop.com/dc/2016/10/audit-dcs-privatized-school-lunch-program-didnt-save-
money-or-improve-meals/

WASHINGTON Privatization of the D.C. Public Schools lunch program failed to deliver required cost
savings or more nutritious meals for children, according to an audit of the program released Friday. D.C. law
requires overall savings of at least five percent when a government service is contracted out. And thats not the only undelivered promise since the 2008 transition, D.C. Auditor

Some of the other benefits of privatization that were touted back in 2008
Kathy Patterson told WTOP.

that we would have better meals, served to more children, better nutrition and so on we
really havent seen that either , Patterson said. In the audit, Patterson recommended responsibility of
food services be returned to the school system. Ive been asking them for years to bring it back, said D.C. council member Mary Cheh
who expressed frustration with both the reports findings and the systems abdication of the food service program. Its a failure of their

responsibility, its a failure of their management effectiveness (and) its a failure of their
commitment to our kids, Cheh said.
 Privatization Fails 1AR
Chicago schools proves the CP fails to lead to better lunches
Perkins, Munchies Contributor, 2016
Tom, How Chicago Students Are Fighting Disgusting School Lunches 2/4
https://munchies.vice.com/en_us/article/how-chicago-students-are-fighting-disgusting-school-
lunches

kids in Chicago Public Schools (CPS), the nation's third-largest

It's rare that school cafeteria fare will generate much excitement with anyone, but

district, are taking an especially dim view of the meals plopped onto their trays each lunch hour. The food

is of an alarmingly low grade , students say, and they charge the district's cookbook holds nothing but
recipes for small portions of processed fast foods . "Disgusting," "soggy," "rotten," and "discolored" are words they use to describe the
dishes. Lunch often "tastes like plastic." On occasion, it is plastic. In fact, the food is free, but it's so bad that students are grabbing up to a million fewer trays annually. That

trend started in 2013, when CPS hired food giant Aramark to run its kitchens. The company now earns around
$14 billion annually cooking in prisons, hospitals, schools, and sports stadiums, but over the last two years it has faced widespread criticism over food quality. In late January,
students at Chicago's Loyola University joined several other universities around the nation in protesting their school's partnership with Aramark, and several prisons recently
ended their contracts with the company for serving rotten food, among other issues. "We're tired of this. Chicken patties served in schools shouldn't be light pink. Fruit cups and

students have documented

milk shouldn't be frozen," Roosevelt High School junior Samantha Delizo tells MUNCHIES. Aside from pink chicken,

green chicken, brown lettuce, rotten fresh fruit, and a litany of other issues. Trips trough the
lunch line turned into such a horror show that Delizo and her classmates, along with civics teacher Tim Meegan,
began organizing boycotts as part of a campaign calling for improvements. Their objective:
Convince CPS to provide healthier and higher quality food. If it can't, it should offer
alternatives to Aramark.

Historic accounts prove privatization doesnt lead to healthier lunches

Clawson, Daily Kos Contributor, 2011
Laura, Food industry profits off of privatized, nutritionally poor school lunches
http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2011/12/5/1042460/-

Another week, another example of privatization damaging the experience kids get out of
public schools . Lucy Komisar writes in the New York Times about how private food service management companies are
profiting off of providing less nutritious food to students. Schools contract with companies like Aramark, Sodexo and
Chartwells to provide school lunches; the schools then don't have to run their own kitchens and in theory save some money. However, Komisar writes that "Roland Zullo, a researcher at

the University of Michigan, found in 2008 that Michigan schools that hired private food-service
management firms spent less on labor and food but more on fees and supplies, yielding 'no
substantive economic savings,'" while one retired school principal told her, "You pay a little less and your kids get strawberry milk, frozen French fries and artificial shortening,"
describing the savings as "paltry." The food service management companies take food that could have been served

in some relatively healthy form and turn it into (usually lousy) versions of fast food staples: The
Agriculture Department pays about $1 billion a year for commodities like fresh apples and sweet potatoes, chickens and turkeys. Schools get the food free; some cook it on site, but more and more pay processors
to turn these healthy ingredients into fried chicken nuggets, fruit pastries, pizza and the like. Some $445 million worth of commodities are sent for processing each year, a nearly 50 percent increase since 2006.
The Agriculture Department doesnt track spending to process the food, but school authorities do. The Michigan Department of Education, for example, gets free raw chicken worth $11.40 a case and sends it for
processing into nuggets at $33.45 a case. The schools in San Bernardino, Calif., spend $14.75 to make French fries out of $5.95 worth of potatoes. Not only that, but the food service management companies and

the processing companies have a system of kickbacks so that the management companies profit even more than they would from what the schools pay them. The heavily processed ,
fried foods produced by this system mean more fat, more sodium and further reinforcement of
problematic eating habits in kids. And it's done by contracted-out, low-wage labor processing
the food far away from the schools where it will ultimately be served, rather than by local
workers who, in many school systems, belong to unions.
 Privatization Fails 1AR Accountability
CP cant solve lack of accountability means any regulations get circumvented.
AFSCME, 2015
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, Privatizing School Support
Services: The Wrong Choice https://www.afscme.org/news/publications/privatization/power-
tools-to-fight-privatization/document/6-Schools-Factsheet.pdf

When a school district outsources support services, those unhappy with contractor employees or the quality
of work have little recourse. For example, Durham School Services hired bus drivers with felony
records and serious motor vehicle violations to work for Memphis area school districts. The number of bus crashes
skyrocketed, with Durham drivers at fault in 125 crashes in less than three years. School officials had few alternatives to working with Durham because the district sold
its buses to the company. As one school official explained, It put you in an awkward position, yes it did. They

had us over a barrel . Even when a school district can identify problems with a contractors
substandard service, the district has to follow inflexible procedures to get the company to fix
the problem . GCA Services standard contract requires school districts to file two notices and wait 90 days before they can cancel contracts for cause.1
 Privatization Fails 1AR Economy
The CP cant solve the economy it eliminates local jobs and recreates cycles of
poverty
AFSCME, 2015
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, Privatizing School Support
Services: The Wrong Choice https://www.afscme.org/news/publications/privatization/power-
tools-to-fight-privatization/document/6-Schools-Factsheet.pdf

Privatization replaces decent, middle-class school district jobs with substandard, poverty-level
jobs . When Chelmsford, Massachusetts, schools outsourced custodial jobs, wages were slashed from
$19 per hour to about $8.50 per hour. Employees couldnt afford to take the new jobs at poverty-
level wages, meaning the community lost many experienced, familiar workers in their schools.8
Outsourcing means more than lower wages. It leaves workers with only part-time hours,
inferior health insurance at higher cost, inadequate retirement benefits and little or no sick leave .
When Aramark, Sodexo, Compass and others took over school cafeterias in New Jersey, the
companies not only cut wages by $4 to $6 per hour , but many workers lost their health
insurance , leaving them uninsured or dependent on Medicaid or childrens health insurance programs.9 GCA Services bid for New Haven Public
Schools custodians proposed cutting wages, hours and benefits so much that custodians would have been eligible for food stamps and Medicaid.10 When school employees,

The local economy

who are parents and grandparents of district schoolchildren, lose good jobs in our schools, they are pushed into unemployment and poverty.

and stability of neighborhoods is harmed .11 School employees, instead of strengthening the
community, will need public benefits just to make ends meet.
 Privatization Makes Food Waste Worse 1AR
Privatization leads to worse food and more waste
Perkins, Munchies Contributor, 2016
Tom, How Chicago Students Are Fighting Disgusting School Lunches 2/4
https://munchies.vice.com/en_us/article/how-chicago-students-are-fighting-disgusting-school-
lunches

In fact, the food is free, but it's so bad that students are grabbing up to a million fewer trays
annually. That trend started in 2013, when CPS hired food giant Aramark to run its kitchens. The
company now earns around $14 billion annually cooking in prisons, hospitals, schools, and sports stadiums, but over the last two years it

has faced widespread criticism over food quality . In late January, students at Chicago's Loyola
University joined several other universities around the nation in protesting their school's
partnership with Aramark, and several prisons recently ended their contracts with the
company for serving rotten food, among other issues.
 The SQ Is Privatization 2AC
Schools are already defacto privatizing school lunches it doesnt work and
federal intervention is keey
Phillpott, Grist Contributor, 2009
Tom, Is privatization the answer to the school lunch mess? http://grist.org/article/2009-10-01-
is-privatization-the-answer-to-the-school-lunch-mess/

the school-lunch program has long-since been de facto privatized . Since the
First of all, lets concede that

1980s, schools have been responsible for maintaining their own kitchen equipment. To raise
funds for that, theyve invited in a plethora junk-food and soda machinessurrendering snack time
to private companies like Coke and Frito Lay. And then, as kitchen equipment slowly decayed
and schools could no longer afford to hire skilled cooks, kitchens increasingly became reheating
centers . And what they reheated was pre-made fare churned out by transnational food giants
companies that are expert at profitably transforming cheap commodity ingredients into
food. Thus we get programs like this one , offered by Tyson Foods (until very recently, the globes largest purveyor of
industrial meat) to cafeteria directors:
 Privatization is Worse for School Budgets 2AC
Privatization makes school budgets works and prevents successful meal
creation
Woldow, school food advocate, 2015
Dana, SCHOOL LUNCH: PRIVATE VS PUBLIC 1/20 http://www.beyondchron.org/school-lunch-
private-vs-public/

My head may explode if I read one more article gushing over a fabulous private school lunch
program, complete with a celebrity chef insisting that any public school can easily do what he
does. The latest such tale appeared recently in Star Wars creator George Lucas Edutopia, a website with a vision of a
new world of learning and a claim to provide not just the visionbut the real-world
information and community connections to make it a reality. The story about the lunch
program at the tony Calhoun School in Manhattan may provide a vision, but if Edutopia offers any real-world
information here to make this vision a reality in the typical budget-challenged public school, it
is well hidden. The Calhoun School program, called Eat Right Now, does indeed sound wonderful, and comes with all of the must-haves on any school food reformers wish list a menu of
nutritious whole foods, locally sourced and freshly prepared each day (right down to the dressings on the bountiful salad bar) by trained chefs in the schools own kitchen. There is also a powerful food education
component, and after school cooking classes for all ages. If that were not enough to make a school food crusader swoon, theres the price. Edutopia reports that the designer of Eat Right Now, Chef Robert Soules
(aka Chef Bobo) is able to produce these wonders for the schools 700 student diners for just $3.12 per student. Wow thats almost exactly the amount of money that the USDA gives schools to pay for a free
lunch for a low income child! So, it stands to reason that replicating Chef Bobos program in any old public school should be easy, right? Especially at a school with lots and lots of low income kids, who are eligible

food costs
for those government-paid free lunches that generate just over $3 a pop. And that would be true, if food were the only expense of a school meal program. Food is just one cost Alas,

account for only about 45% of the budget for a nutrition department in most school districts;
labor and benefits cost about another 45%, with utilities and other overhead (like pest control, equipment replacement,
repair and maintenance, and non-food supplies) making up the remaining 10%. In other words, of that approximately $3 that a

school gets for a free student lunch, only about $1.35 is available for food. Chef Ann Cooper, who is probably the nations
most famous lunch lady, told me that her scratch cooked school lunch program in Boulder (CO) spends about $1.20-1.25 per student on food. I checked with Chef Bobo to be sure that the $3.12 figure Edutopia
cited really was all spent on food, and he confirmed that it was, and also shared the happy news that since doing that interview, he had been able to connect with some local farms and bring his per-student food

it still means that this private school is able to spend more than twice
cost down to $2.89. That great news for Calhouns lunch program, but

what Chef Ann spends for her public school meal program. Its completely misleading for
Edutopia or anyone else to hold Chef Bobos program up as an example of what any public
school would be able to do, if only they had the vision to do so. According to Chef Bobo, Calhouns food service model is easy to
replicate, Edutopia crows, but I find it hard to believe that someone who has been in food service as long as Chef Bobo would make such a reckless claim. Public school cafeterias

face challenges privates dont Im pretty sure Chef Bobo is aware of just how privileged his situation is at Calhoun, with all of his food costs
paid upfront as part of the annual tuition, and with a well-equipped kitchen for his ample staff
to use to turn those farm fresh ingredients into tasty meals kids love. The main reason why most
public schools dont cook their own food is not because they dont have the vision; its because
they dont have functioning kitchens. The hard reality is that public schools dont have the
whole $3 to spend on food because they also have to rely on that money to pay for cafeteria
workers and overhead to run the operation. A more fair comparison than what Edutopia provides would include all of the costs of Eat Right Now, including
labor and overhead. Add those costs to the $3.12 spent on food, and the full meal cost per student is likely to be closer to $8 than to $3.
 Privatization is Worse for School Budgets 1AR
Privatization is worse for school budgets and is more costly.
AFSCME, 2015
American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, Privatizing School Support
Services: The Wrong Choice https://www.afscme.org/news/publications/privatization/power-
tools-to-fight-privatization/document/6-Schools-Factsheet.pdf

Privatizing doesnt save money, and often costs more , because the contract fails to include all
of the duties that school employees perform, and the cost comparison omits many hidden
costs of outsourcing . For example: Cleaning firms submit low-ball bids based on unrealistic staffing assumptions. When classrooms are dirty and parents
complain, it costs the district more to boost staffing and improve cleanliness. Chicago Public Schools found this out with its custodial contract with Aramark. In the first 11
months of the deal, the company charged $22 million more than budgeted, wiping out all of the projected savings for the year. The company had to increase staffing by

Food service contractors

hundreds of workers after complaints about school cleanliness and the districts failure to include some facilities in the contract.2

promise to save districts millions of dollars, but any financial improvement comes from increased
federal reimbursements from school lunch programs that smart school districts can achieve
themselves .3 Privatization is no guarantee of success, as District of Columbia Public Schools
found when its contract with Chartwells cost taxpayers $7 million more than projected
while serving 15 million fewer meals .4
AT: States CP
 50 State Fiat Bad 2AC
50 state fiat is a voting issue a. opportunity cost no actor has the power to
implement the counterplan and compare it against the plan proves it is an
illogical and utopian comparison b. affirmative ground uniform fiat and
multiple planks force the aff to write contrived advantages based on
jurisdictional and diplomatic questions which moves debate from the core
question of regulating education to more contrived issues. C. Distorts the
literature even if there is evidence to support the CP none assume uniformity
and fiat which undermines education.
 Doesnt Solve Economy 2AC
Patchwork means the CP doesnt equally invest in schools nationwide
undermines the economic benefits
Ansel, Policy Analyst and Writer at Equitable Growth, 2017
Bridget, Failing to invest in young kids is damaging the U.S. economy 1/17
http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/failing-to-invest-in-young-kids-is-damaging-the-u-s-
economy/

The lack of focus on early childhood education and care is due in part to an outdated system built on the
assumption that mothers still stay home with a young child while fathers go to workeven though this post-WWII ideal was never the reality for many women, especially

women of color.Whats more, other countries among the nations developed and rapidly developing
peers have caught up. The United States today spends less than almost every other of these
nations on early childhood education and care. In 2012, the United States ranked 33rd out of 36 nations in terms of investment in early
childhood education relative to their overall income, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Unlike the United States, these other

OECD countries are reaping the benefits shown by the large body of research showing the
benefits of high-quality early childhood care and education programs . Studies show these
programs are one of the best ways to reduce economic inequality and improve individual
outcomes later in life. Thats because the brain is more flexible and responds to its environment
more than that of older kids . When investment in younger children is implemented on a
national scale, research shows that helps create a more productive workforce and provides a
boost to the overall economy.
 Funding Solvency Deficit 2AC
The CP alone cant solve states alone dont have the necessary funds to
complete the transition
Aitken, Council of State Governments Contributor, 2014
Jack, State Burdens of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act 5/1
http://knowledgecenter.csg.org/kc/content/state-burdens-healthy-hunger-free-kids-act

School districts across the country are having problems implementing a 2010 law that changed the guidelines for school
breakfasts and lunches because of the rise in food prices, among other factors, according to a report by the Government Accountability Office. The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids

Act of 2010 aims to help reduce the level of childhood obesity in the United States and encourage healthier eating habits for young people. The law required school breakfasts and lunches to include more
fruit, vegetables and whole grains. Between the 2010-11 and 2012-13 school years, however, overall participation in school lunches declined by 1.2 million students. The GAO report also

found certain aspects of the U.S. Department of Agricultures guidance and oversight of school food authorities created issues with state
compliance . Evidence also suggests some school food authorities that were granted federal funds did not fully meet validation requirements. GAO School lunch participation has seen a decline since
2007; however, the greatest decline10 percentcame in 2012-13, while the number of students receiving free meals has been increasing. The GAO survey found 48 states said the new meal requirements set by
the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act directly affected student participation in the program. The program requires whole grain alternatives and smaller meat and grain portions. During the 2012-13 school year, one
district reported the changes made to school lunches led to a three-week student boycott. School officials also noted the paid lunch equity, which increased the price of paid lunches in districts where federal
reimbursement from paid lunches was less than their federal reimbursement on free lunches, also created problems. The change was made to help school districts comply with the newer, more expensive food
requirements. The downside to this was that some families with limited incomes who did not qualify for free lunches felt they were being charged more for less food, ultimately leading to these families not

Federal reimbursement Oversight issues also created problems for the program.
participating in school lunches.

States oversee the National School Lunch Program to ensure school food authorities are
complying with the rules set under the program. If they are not in compliance, the states can issue noncompliance
reports and take action to address the problems. Due to the scale of the Healthy, Hunger-Free
Kids Act and the new guidelines, states were instead told to work with school districts on the new guidelines. States were not required to document noncompliance issues,
partly removing the oversight duties of the states. Also under the law, states can authorize compliance and grant 6 cents of

federal funds to a school district for each lunch served to help offset costs of the new
guidelines ; however, states that did not certify compliance did not lose the federal grant of 6 cents. The USDA believes the noncompliance issues to be a result of school districts learning and
adapting to the new guidelines. The USDA Standards for Internal Control, said, without the proper

noncompliance, the program integrity will be at risk.

 Patchwork Deficit 2AC
The CP creates a patchwork of conflicting regulations that undermines the
health benefits of the aff and prevents effective implementation.
Schilling, 2011
Becky, Food Service Director Contributor, Legislating Health State and federal laws are
mandating "healthy" reforms in school meals, but are these laws helping or harming the cause?
10/20 http://www.foodservicedirector.com/ideas-innovation/health-
wellness/articles/legislating-health

The School Nutrition Association supports consistent, national nutrition standards , based on
the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, for all foods and beverages sold in school, says Diane Pratt-Heavner, director of media
relations for SNA. Childrens basic nutritional needs are the same whether they live in Florida or

California, and whether they are sitting down for snack time or lunchtime. When individual states and school districts
pass their own regulations for school food, the result is a patchwork of standards that vary
wildly from one locality to another, and some may not be based on sound nutrition science.
Multiple standards increase the cost of the program by requiring [manufacturers] to prepare
multiple versions of the same products to meet various nutrition standards.
 Patchwork Solvency Deficit 1AR
The CP doesnt solve leads to patchwork and lack of necessary know-how to
implement the regulations
School Nutrition Association, 2015
Myth vs. Fact on Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act School Meals Implementation

FACT: The new nutrition standards for school meals are so complex that since October 2010, USDA has
released approximately 200 policy memos to clarify the regulations. The Q&A document on the Final
Rule on the Nutrition Standards in the National School Lunch and School Breakfast Programs is in its 7th iteration and is 62 pages long.

This is just one of several Q&A documents pertaining to the new regulations. SNA has also provided school meal
programs with extensive assistance and resources to help them understand and implement
the new standards , share ideas , recipes and successes . Since the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act
was passed, SNA has hosted hundreds of education sessions at numerous conferences, culinary
demonstrations, webinars and web pages featuring toolkits and resources detailing all aspects
of the new standards . SNA has promoted all USDA resources to members and has worked
closely with USDA throughout implementation to share feedback and insight from school meal
program operators on challenges with implementation.

The USDA is key the CP ensures states decide how to regulate on a state-by-
state basis.
Schilling, 2011
Becky, Food Service Director Contributor, Legislating Health State and federal laws are
mandating "healthy" reforms in school meals, but are these laws helping or harming the cause?
10/20 http://www.foodservicedirector.com/ideas-innovation/health-
wellness/articles/legislating-health
Binkle says the main problem is that the USDA and the Department of Education dont communicate, which leads to confusion. The USDA funds the
program through a block grant to the states Department of Education. States are required under the National School Lunch Act to provide state
revenue matching funds to the individual districts child nutrition department. Because
there are different levels of
government and different governmental departments overseeing the school meals program,
ownership over mandates can become convoluted. The synergy and alignment begin at the
federal level in our programs , Binkle says. No. 1, the two different departments at the federal level
dont speak to each other, so there is a lack of clarity. If [mandates] dont start at the federal
level then it becomes an interpretation based upon 50 ideas . From our perspective if its not in
a federal law to start with, then it becomes an isolated, individual state-by-state decision.
 No Link to Federalism 2AC
No spillover the 2010 implementation of the act should have undermined
federalism.
And the plan is within the federal governments jurisdiction
Kaplin, JD Harvard Law, 2011
Lauren, A National Strategy to Combat the Childhood Obesity Epidemic
https://jjlp.law.ucdavis.edu/archives/vol-15-no-2/Lauren-Kaplin.pdf

First, there is some argument that the doctrine of parens patriae provides for independent
justification of Congressional involvement in the childhood obesity epidemic .118 Parens patriae,
originally a British common law doctrine, refers to the governments role as guardian for persons legally

unable to act for themselves, such as juveniles and the insane.119 When anti-smoking advocates
brought suit against R.J. Reynolds challenging the Joe Camel advertising campaign targeting children in the 1990s , the
California Supreme Court referred to the parens patriae doctrine in dismissing a summary
judgment challenge: For over a century, with watchful eye, in its role as parens patriae, [the
Legislature] has maintained a paternalistic vigilance over this vulnerable segment of our
society .120 It seems reasonable to extend this paternalistic vigilance to the obesity epidemic
through legislation like the Kids Act.
 Perm Do Both 2AC
Perm do bothsolves the link to politics.
Overby 3 (A. Brooke, Professor of Law Tulane University School of Law, Our New Commercial
Law Federalism, Temple University of the Commonwealth System of Higher Education Temple
Law Review, Summer, 76 Temp. L. Rev. 297, Lexis)
We held in New York that Congress cannot compel the States to enact or enforce a federal regulatory program. Today we hold that
Congress cannot circumvent that prohibition by conscripting the States' officers directly. The Federal Government may neither issue
directives requiring the States to address particular problems, nor command the States' officers, or those of their political
subdivisions, to administer or enforce a federal regulatory program. It matters not whether policymaking is involved, and no case-
by-case weighing of the burdens or benefits is necessary; such commands are fundamentally incompatible with our constitutional
system of dual sovereignty.n65 The concerns articulated in New York and echoed again in Printz addressed the erosion of the lines
of political accountability that could result from federal commandeering.n66 Federal
authority to compel
implementation of a national legislative agenda through the state legislatures or officers would
blur or launder the federal provenance of the legislation and shift political consequences and costs
thereof to the state legislators. Left unchecked, Congress could foist upon the states expensive or
unpopular programs yet shield itself from accountability to citizens. While drawing the line between
constitutionally permissible optional implementation and impermissible mandatory implementation does not erase these concerns
with accountability, it does ameliorate them slightly.
School Lunches Neg
Privatization CP
 Privatization CP 1NC
The United States federal government should mandate that secondary and
elementary education schools contract with private companies to provide
school lunches.
The CP solves the aff leads to healthy school lunches without breaking the
bank and avoids the waste and budget turns.
Dr. Marc Siegel 15, M.D., professor of medicine and medical director of Doctor Radio at NYU
Langone Medical Center, Allison Hedges, Big appetite for private solution to Michelle Obamas
school lunch plan, 3-23-2015, Fox News Opinion,
http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/03/23/big-appetite-for-private-solution-to-michelle-
obamas-school-lunch-plan.html

Its been nearly five years since the

White House and the first lady pushed through stricter guidelines for
school lunch programs in legislation known as the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act. But students nationwide have
continued to complain about dreary dismal portions and a lack of variety, posting pictures of food left on
trays with a sarcastic #ThanksMichelleObama.

Enter Chartwells, a private company that is

taking the governments strict regulations and turning them
into savory yet healthy baked lunches that no kid can refuse.

Fox News went to the Union City, N.J., Public School District, where one in four kids are living in poverty, and we
discovered incredible enthusiasm and compliance with school meals, from breakfast to dinner.
The district is being fully reimbursed by the state and federal government for compliance, and the kids are eating it up.

You have a variety of seven different feeding stations, Anthony N. Dragona, school administrator and secretary of the Union City
Board of Education, said in an interview. Create your own salad, create your own sandwich, whole wheat pasta bar. We incorporate
parent, students, faculty, and we ask them, what do you want to see in your cafeteria?

Dragona said that without a private company like Chartwells to lend a hand, food ends up being left
on the plate. On their own, school districts are hard pressed to come up with innovative
solutions in cafeteria design, menu creation, and school nutrition education. Dragona emphasized that Chartwells forges a
partnership between parents and the school community.
Margie Saidel, vice president of nutrition, culinary, and sustainability at Chartwells, brings close to 20 years of experience in child
nutrition and food service to the lunch table. Speaking about the
National School Lunch Program, she agreed with
Dragona, Thats been difficult for a lot of school districts, and theyve seen their participation
drop. But what we have decided is we are focusing on the taste and a full balanced meal.
We still had our doubts when we arrived at Union City High School, but it soon became clear that Dragona and Saidel are right,
Chartwells has taken the USDA guidelines and converted them into something with a lot of variety, a lot of health and a lot of choice.
Just try a baked veggie roll and see for yourself.

We bring our team of experts, registered dietitians, culinarians and our food management expertise, Saidel said. All the meals
here are rich in color, all whole grain, many fruits and vegetables.

Student liaison Josie Martinez said she preferred Chartwells baked french fries to the fried kind. It's not as greasy and it tastes a lot
better, she said. It doesn't slow you down later on, and it makes you feel more energetic.

She said the kids were actually eating fruits and vegetables, even broccoli .
Because the food tastes so great, they participate, Seidel said. And the more they participate, the
higher the revenue is for the school district. All schools in the National School Lunch Program
have the ability to do that.
The National School Lunch Program cost the government $70 million when it began in 1947. Its now in over 100,000 public and non-
profit private schools and residential child care organizations, and it costs over $12 billion. As of 2012, more than 31 million children
were getting their lunch through the program every day. Of those, 2.7 million had Chartwells as an intermediary.

And Chartwells isnt alone. Another larger national food company, Aramark, is servicing public school lunch programs in urban areas
around the country, and in New Jersey, a local vender called Masschio is doing the same thing.

Chartwells adds flavor, variety and exciting presentation to the food, and it uses a smartphone app,
Nutrislice, that presents students and parents with the weeks menu and nutrition information in advance. Focus groups and a
voting system give the students control over what they see in the lunch line.

Youre empowering the students, Dragona says. Its not that the district is just giving them lunch. Theyre actually helping to
shape it.

Dragona said that Chartwells has been working with Union City School District for 18 years. When the new national school lunch
guidelines were adopted five years ago and other school districts cringed and thought they might resist, Dragona said that Union City
embraced them, since they already had many of the guidelines in place and much more. The school district had long focused on
decreasing amounts of fats and sugars and increasing fruits and vegetables.

According to Dragona, they switched to whole grains and stopped frying six years ago.

Sure, Chartwells turns a profit, but they work

under a break even contract with Union City, where no
matter what the cost, it doesnt cost the school district anything . The federal government reimburses the
school $2.30 for lunch, with a little more than half the students at full participation and the rest at 60 percent participation. More
than enough to keep everyone happy and well fed.

One walk through the elementary school is all you need to be convinced that a private solution can turn a
floundering public program around . We asked a group of 7 and 8-year-olds if they were enjoying the food, and they
shouted in unison, Yes!
 Solves Healthier School Lunches 2NC
Previous efforts prove the CP solves privatizing school lunches leads to
healthier options that doesnt lead to more waste.
Martin, Business Insider Contributor, 2016
Emmi, This company is pulling in $125 million in sales by cooking up a solution to sad school
lunches 7/7 http://www.businessinsider.com/revolution-foods-changing-the-school-lunch-
industry-2016-6

So they paired up to write a business plan and launch a company that would supply schools
with nutritious, cost-effective breakfasts, lunches, and dinners that contain no artificial
colors, flavors, preservatives, or high-fructose corn syrup and are largely prepared from
locally grown ingredients. Revolution Foods' ambition was always deeper than simply offering a school-lunch alternative it hoped to improve
education and make a lasting difference on the families whose students they served. "Its building lifelong
healthy eaters by making our fresh, healthy, affordable meals accessible for all," she says. "Its a combination of health and access." Richmond attributes this committed

vision to permanently changing lives as a catalyst for the company's rapid growth. In its first year, Revolution
operated with six employees who cooked, packaged, and delivered every meal themselves to schools around Oakland, California, where Revolution Foods is based. A year after kicking off in Oakland, word quickly

Today, a decade after

spread, and the company expanded to Los Angeles, followed by schools in Washington DC, Colorado, New Orleans, New Jersey, and Texas soon after.

launching, Revolution serves 1.5 million healthy meals per week across 1,000 schools in more
than 30 cities nationwide . Along the way, the company has picked up nearly $100 million in private
funding, including $30 million from a fund ran by AOL cofounder Steve Case. Part of that war chest has helped an
expansion beyond schools and into general retail. Revolution hit store shelves in 2013 with the goal of providing students

and families an affordable way to eat well even outside of school cafeterias . Retail options
include everything from ready-made lunch boxes stocked with humanely raised chicken to
whole-grain granola bundles, providing a spectrum of options for dinners and snacks. The
company sells products in over 4,000 grocery stores across multiple states, and it donates a
portion of all product sales back to support healthy school meal programs. Another key to
successfully scaling Revolution has been a relentless commitment to taste . High-minded,
healthy meals mean little if no one is willing to swallow them . So Richmond and Tobey make flavor a
top priority, putting each meal through multiple iterations and taking into account ample
feedback from real students. Menus run the gamut from spaghetti and meatballs to chicken pasta alfredo to jambalaya, incorporating both classic favorites and regional
specialties.

The CP leads to healthier and more school lunches and avoids all the turns.
Black, Washington Post Staff Writer, 2009
Jane, At Some Schools, Tastier Trays Come at a Price http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2009/09/29/AR2009092900741.html

Richmond says Revolution Foods' model can work . So far, in the Washington area the company is working only with charter and private
schools. But it does serve 15 public school districts in California. Some, such as the Los Gatos Union district, are affluent.

Others are not: Roseland, in Sonoma County, serves a population in which 81 percent of students are
eligible for free or reduced-price meals. Revolution Foods will help schools raise money to
bridge the financial gap, Richmond said. In some cases, paid lunches can subsidize meals for lower-
income students . The company also provides free catering for events to raise money for better
school food . And, of course, Richmond is hopeful that the federal government will raise the federal reimbursement rate when it reauthorizes child nutrition programs
later this year.
 CP Causes Private Company Buy in 2NC
The CP effectively leads to private-public partnerships for school lunches
solves the aff by driving the market to make the most cost effective and healthy
meals New Yorks prove.
Leber, Staff Writer for Fast Company, 2015
Jessica, The Unlikely Alliance Fixing School Lunches,
https://www.fastcompany.com/3047909/the-unlikely-alliance-that-is-fixing-school-lunches

Were presented with the following options: do nothing or do something about it. We decided to do something
about it, Goldstein says. In 2012, the Natural Resources Defense Council, a national environmental group headquartered in New York, approached Goldstein with a proposal to work together to improve school
food, figuring that doing so would directly improve the health of some of the most disadvantaged kids in the city. The group also wanted to develop ways to use government spending to expand the market for

Weve seen, in the past, that when

sustainable foods, as has been done for other environmentally-friendly products like recycled paper and green building materials.

government uses its purchasing power, it can often move the market and drive progressive chang e
on environmental issues. And food is the next frontier , says Mark Izeman, NRDCs New York urban program director. He didnt know what to expect when he first met with
Goldstein. It turns out Goldstein not only was on board right awayhe proposed something bigger: Getting school districts of other big cities involved. While New York is a large buyer, it might not be big enough to

move the market on its own, he figured. Thats where the Urban School Food Alliance was born, involving major city
school districtsNew York, Miami, Chicago, Los Angeles, Dallas and Orlando that together feed
2.9 million kids a day and procure more than $550 million in food a year. Seventy percent of the
kids served are from poorer backgrounds, qualifying for free or discounted lunch. The alliance didnt
want only to take positions on policy or talk about issues. It wanted to take action and break new ground. This makes it a unique

type of collaboration, with city agencies working together from within large government bureaucracies across state lines. (These schools also felt poorly
served by the national School Nutrition Association, a group which Goldstein says pays more attention to the needs of smaller school districts.) First,
the districts decided to take on an issue they knew they could handle: the polystyrene trays in school cafeterias. They were introduced decades ago because they were so cheap; each tray costs 4 cents each on
average, where paper is 12 cents. New York City had been trying to move off of them for years, but the economics made it difficult. A lot of companies had promises, but they just never materialized, Goldstein

So we said, lets try to pool our resources, come out with a big bid, and try to lead the market
says.

progressivelyusing our buying power to get them there. So were not mandating or
regulating. Its carrot, not stick. The districts jointly sought bidders . If they were successful, theyd remove 225 million
polystyrene trays from landfills every year. At first the leading bid was for material made in Asia, from sorghum and bamboo. Then a better option came a long: a recycled paper material that would be
manufactured in Maine by the Finnish paper company Huhtamaki, which would retool its factory to win the bid. The design was also innovative. The milk goes in the middle, surrounded by four food
compartments, so the tray is more balanced. More importantly, the tray was round: No one eats from a rectangle at home. We wanted to get off that institutional feel, says Goldstein. After user testing, the

schools decided together they had a winner. The trays would only cost just a penny more each than the plastic. That was only the first victory for the
alliance. The group announced last December they would all follow a new antibiotic-free standard when
buying chicken, one of the most popular items served in cafeterias. The idea is that this would help add pressure major
suppliers to produce more supply, eventually at a lower cost. Fast food chains, like McDonalds and Chik-Fil-A, as well as the biggest poultry
producers, like Perdue and Tysons, are also starting to make the shift. Though theres been a wave of announcements, Izeman says the largest school districts

representing so many kidsare an important symbol. The next issue the schools will be tackling is moving to compostable cutlery, which will
replace the cumbersome sporks many schools now use. One day, Goldstein says, it would be his dream to also get grass-fed beef in the schools. Soon, the alliance will also invite more city districts to join, which

The backdrop to all of this is the changing thinking around school food.
will increase their power to move markets even more.

Originally, government-subsidized school lunch programs started in the 1940s, after the military
realized many of its conscripts during both world wars were skinny and poorly nourished. But by
the 1960s and 70s, they were viewed as a welfare program and guttedresulting in the mush
you probably think of when you think of cafeterias . Slowly, over the last decade, as awareness of an obesity epidemic has grown, the
emphasis has gone back to serving healthier foodsand more sustainable ones. Theres been
a very profound shift in how people think about food and what theyre eating and how theyre
eating it, says Goldstein. Were trying to reinvent ourselves in a way where we are very constrained by
what we can serve and the money we have to serve it.
 Doesnt Link to Politics 2NC
CP doesnt link to politics its more politically palpable than more regulations
Black, Washington Post Staff Writer, 2009
Jane, At Some Schools, Tastier Trays Come at a Price http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-
dyn/content/article/2009/09/29/AR2009092900741.html

But with a projected $1.6 trillion federal deficit in 2009, even the strongest supporters of school
lunch reform privately concede a substantial increase is unlikely to pass . That means no extra
money to rebuild school kitchens , to train cafeteria workers or to buy more fresh fruits and
vegetables. Progressive food service directors will continue to add leaner menu items and salad
bars. But on the whole, traditional school lunch, that culinary gantlet of tater tots and greasy
pizza, appears here to stay. Or does it? Oakland, Calif.-based Revolution Foods thinks it might have a
solution. The four-year-old company turns out thousands of made-from-scratch meals -- such as roasted
chicken with yams, beans, a locally grown peach and a carton of milk -- that meet all Department of Agriculture nutrition

standards. It shuns high-fructose corn syrup and trans fats and includes only hormone- and
antibiotic-free milk and meat and all-natural ingredients. The price, between $2.90 and $3 per lunch, is not much higher than the
current $2.68 the government pays. To date, more than 250 schools in California, Colorado and, beginning this

year, the District have signed on. Public health advocates and lawmakers are watching closely to see whether the model can work.
 AT: Accountability
Privatization solves accountability better than public schools and lead to better
handling of finances.
Ludgwig, American Thinker, 2016
E. Jeffery, HS Teacher in NY, 12/29 Privatizing Education: An Important Step in School Reform
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/12/privatizing_education_an_important_step_i
n_school_reform.html

But what about the negatives in the public sector that have made the "school choice"
movement seem increasingly attractive ? Ravitch addresses none of these. For example, financial waste and
corruption of billions of taxpayer dollars has much to do with the increased momentum of
the privatizing movement . Take the New York City schools. Each school now has to have a
financial report called a "Galaxy Report" online along with that school's testing statistics. However, these
reports are far from self-explanatory, and a citizen could understand them only with some
exhaustive research, which the average parent of a school-age child has neither the time nor the
inclination to do. Therefore, these "reports" of school finances or school test results merely
provide charades of transparency. Nobody is privy to actual shifts of funds by the principal from
one line of the budget to another, nor are audits of the individual school's books, if indeed there
are audits, ever made public. This former teacher never once in over 20 years of teaching saw
any audit of the funds of any high school published by the NYC Dept. of Education. The assistant
principals for organization in the high schools typically have never had even one accounting
course in their years of education, yet they are often, along with the principals, the key
players in superintending the revenue flow allocated to the school
 AT: Economy Turn
The economy turn is wrong private public partnerships leads to more secure
pensions and better long term economic benefits for the community
Robinson, former president of the Black Alliance for Educational Options in the U.S.,
5/25/2017

Gerard, The positive privatization narrative http://www.aei.org/publication/the-positive-

privatization-narrative/

Though anti-privatization advocates often claim that private-sector outsourcing hurts those in the
public system, in many cases, it is just the opposite . The private sector is benefiting school districts
and other public employees in another area, too: pension investment. According to an
American Investment Council report regarding the investments of over 155 public pension funds
in various equity markets, funds invested in private equity produce a median 10-year annualized
return rate nearly 4 percent higher than those invested in public equity . For example, the Teacher
Retirement System of Texas invested $16.41 billion in private equity, and came away with a
15.4 percent increase in their annualized 10-year return . The New York State Teachers
Retirement System invested $8.26 billion in private equity, and garnered a 13.2 percent
increase in their return . The point is that these teachers, and countless more, will be able to
retire with some comfort based on the investment of their public pensions in the private
equity market. School districts depend on private-sector service providers to support their
educational duties. Examples of positive public-private partnership exist in American
education, and they should be marketed as lessons for how privatization is working to the
benefit of many.
State Budgets DA
 State Budget DA 1NC
State budgets are tight now and are carefully balancing education funding to
avoid collapsing their budgets.
McNeel, Rivard Report Contributor, 4/1/2017
Bekah, State and Federal Budgets Skimp on School Funding https://therivardreport.com/state-
and-federal-budgets-skimp-on-school-funding/

With proposed budgets reflecting the spending priorities at the federal and state level, politicians are
quick to point out increases to education funding. However, budgets are tricky things, and the same appropriation can reflect both an increase in
funding and a decrease in spending. Take the Texas Senates proposed budget for education: Sen. Jane Nelson (R-Flower Mound) praised the
budgets education funding increase of $4.6 billion. That figure, however, relies primarily on increases in revenue from local property taxes: as property values go up, homeowners pay more in taxes. However,
districts would not necessarily get more money, because the State would lower its share by $1.8 billion. To understand how local taxpayers and state government share the cost of public education, please see this

helpful, animated explanation from Houston Public Media. With the passage of the Senates proposed budget, the state share in
public education, which was at almost 50% in 1993, will drop to 38% by 2019 , according to Eva DeLuna Castro, analyst with the
Center for Public Policy Priorities (CPPP). The State itself isnt putting a single dollar into the formula, Castro said. That is an example of an increase in

funding, and a decrease in spending, which sounds more responsible than it is, Castro said. Even with an increase in total funding, the budget can still function as a cut if
it does not adequately cover inflation. With the State relying on property tax increases and decreasing its share of spending, the budget increases primarily go to essential needs of the Texas Education Agency and
the teacher retirement system. The amount of money spent on students, what is known as the average daily allotment, is not enough to cover inflation, Castro said. The U.S. inflation rate in February was 2.7%,

Such efforts speak not to

the highest since March 2012. Meanwhile, proposals to end the franchise tax (SB 17) and cap local taxes (SB 2) will continue to constrict revenue streams.

the lean and mean economic policies of Texas, but to the real lack of commitment to education,
said State Rep. Diego Bernal (D-San Antonio). Bernal is vice chair of the House Committee on Public Education. In the House, K-12 funding fares a little better, but not much, Castro said. It raises the daily allotment

to cover inflation. Going into the 2017 legislative session, education advocates braced themselves for shortfalls . Republican
legislators have repeatedly reminded the public that this would be a lean year in terms of
revenue . Some of that is due to tax cuts passed in 2015, Castro said. Others have suggested that another name for a lean year might be a rainy day.
The Texas State Teachers Association (TSTA), CPPP, and others are calling on the State to use money from its Rainy Day Fund, which contains more than $10 billion of excess revenue put aside by the state for use
in case of revenue shortfalls. The fund would approach $11.9 billion by fiscal year 2019 if untouched. At a time when Texas has a Rainy Day Fund surplus of $12 billion, the largest of its kind in the country, failing
to adequately fund our neighborhood schools in unconscionable, TSTA President Noel Candelaria said. TSTAs recent poll, conducted by a respected bipartisan polling team, found that 71% of Texas voters
believe some of the Rainy Day Fund should be used to support public schools. A proposal in the House (HB 2) suggests dipping into the Rainy Day fund, but only for Medicaid and the teacher retirement fund.
Efforts are being made in both houses of the legislature to study current school funding formulas. In 2016, the Texas Supreme Court challenged the legislature to reform the system, which it called Byzantine. If
every formula and mechanism stays the same, then an infusion [of emergency funds] is a temporary relief, Bernal said. If we change the formula or mechanism then we improve the system. Analysts are
doubtful that meaningful change will occur in this legislative session, which will put districts even further behind by the time the 2019 Legislature convenes. While traditional schools will be making do with the
same $5,140 per student average daily allotment theyve had for the past two years, school choice could see a bump in funding if the Senate can figure out a way to pass a bill (SB 3) creating education savings
accounts (ESAs) and tax-credit scholarships. The ESA would allow families to use 60% of a public school districts per-student budget to pay for private school. Economically disadvantaged families would receive
75% of that amount, and special education students would receive 90%. ESAs would be funded by state education funds, not funds generated locally through property taxes. So in this case the State, which is
cutting costs wherever possible, would add to its spending. The Senate hasnt come up with a way to pay for that, Castro said. The other program proposed by SB 3, the tax-credit scholarship, would create a
nonprofit scholarship organization to distribute funds for private school tuition donated by businesses and private individuals, who could then claim tax write-offs. Through the SB 3 programs, the CPPP estimates
that public schools would lose $2 billion if 5% of students choose to use ESAs. While the Senate has not figured out how to fund the entire ESA program, it would definitely divert the States current share of the
average daily allotment for students choosing to go to private schools using their ESA. The tax write-offs created by the tax-credit scholarship program would also come out of the State funds for education. In San
Antonio Independent School District, if 5% of the current student body chose to go to private school through an ESA, the district would lose $21 million, according to the CPPP. That is more than the money
generated by the tax-rate increase voters approved in November. The 13-cent increase in the districts tax rate generated $15.6 million locally, with the state kicking in an additional $16.5 million. The rate increase
passed with broad support, largely because local taxes raised in SAISD are matched by the state. That boost would be more than nullified by the ESAs. The legislature is also considering increased facilities funding
for charter schools. The states signals that school choice remains a high priority echoes general signals given by the White House budget, which proposed $250 million for an unspecified new private school
choice program and a $168 million increase to the federal charter schools program, currently funded at $300 million. An additional $1 billion would be allocated to encourage districts to fund open-enrollment
choices for disadvantaged students under Title I. That means that if a disadvantaged student wanted to go to a charter school, that school would receive not only state funds, but federal and local as well. SAISD,

The White House budget shrinks the

which is categorized as a Title I district, currently estimates its losses due to charter school enrollment at $6.2 million per year.

U.S. Department of Education budget by 13%, ends the AmeriCorps service program funding,
and cuts funding for Title II, money intended to provide teacher training. This budget would cut
most of our investment in leadership programs with the cuts to Title II, SAISD legislative coordinator Seth Rau said. By ending
AmeriCorps, we would lose many of our CityYear and Teach for America corps members. It is unclear how the Title I changes would affect us. Charter school leaders also have

spoken out against the White House budget. In an op-ed for USA Today, charter leaders from the countys most prominent charter networks said that while
they appreciate the proposed investment in new schools like ours, they could not support a budget that hurts public schools. Budgets are statements of priorities,

and this one sends a clear message that public education is not a top priority, according to the op-ed.
The plan drains school budgets---waste, storage, equipment, and rigid regs
Daren Bakst 14, The Heritage Foundation's research fellow in agricultural policy, 6-24-2014,
"Why Michelle Obama Is Wrong on School Lunches," Heritage Foundation,
http://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/why-michelle-obama-wrong-school-
lunches

This arrogance is on display in the current controversy over the

new and restrictive federal school meal
standards. Since the 2010-11 school year, participation in the school lunch program has fallen
dramatically after more than a decade of growth. Most of the decline occurred in the 2012-2013 school year,
when participation fell by over a million students. This just so happens to be the first year that the standards were in effect.

Schools are incurring massive costs to comply with the standards. Some schools have
reportedly transferred money out of their teaching budgets to cover the food costs. Theres
massive plate waste, food storage and equipment costs, and little flexibility for local schools
to meet the needs of their students.

Michelle Obama has scolded anyone who dares to address concerns about these standards, including the School Nutrition
Association (SNA), which represents more than 55,000 school nutrition professionals. That may be the
only way to counter the legitimate concerns that the school systems foot soldiers are seeing firsthand.

SNA, though, isnt the only organization highlighting the problems. The
independent Government Accountability
Office did a survey of school nutrition officers. These officials expressed similar concerns,
including problems with plate waste and food costs.

According to the National School Board Association, School boards cannot ignore the higher costs and
operational issues created by the rigid mandates of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act.

Expensive school lunch causes money to get drawn from other programs
Lydia Wheeler 16, Federal Regulations Reporter at The Hill, 7-4-2016, "Fight erupts in
Congress over school lunch money," http://thehill.com/regulation/legislation/286266-fight-
erupts-in-congress-over-school-lunch-money

The School Nutrition Association says Grothmans proposal shows where Republicans are headed. It argues that once
funding is reduced through block granting, a program becomes easier to eliminate.
Im not buying the argument that three states are better than 50; its like saying which of your 10 fingers do you want to cut off,
said Doug Davis, the nutrition association's public policy and legislation committee chair, who is the director of food service for
schools in Burlington, Vt.

The association argues that under the block grant program, schools
in participating states would be cut off from
two key funding streams the 29-cent reimbursement rate for meals that students pay full
price for, and the 6 cents schools receive per lunch if they meet the federal nutrition standards
that First Lady Michelle Obama advocated for in the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act.

The cuts could result in losses of as much as $78 million in states like California, while Georgia could lose up to $30 million just from
the loss of the 6 cents per lunch, according to the nutrition association's estimates.

The Republican bill also states that a school district can only provide free lunches to all when the poverty rate for the student body is
60 percent or higher. That threshold is now set at 40 percent.
That change alone, DeLauro said, would end the program for 7,000 of the 18,000 schools currently participating and eliminate the
option for another 11,000 schools that are eligible but not yet participating.

This is devastating, she said. One in five kids in the U.S. live in a house where food is scarce. Hunger exists in each and every
community whether represented by a Democrat or a Republican.

U.S. Department of Agriculture data online states that 22

million students received free or reduced lunches
under the federal meal programs in 2015, while 12 million students received free or reduced
breakfast.

In an interview with The Hill last week, Rokita said money had to come from somewhere to increase the
federal reimbursement rate for school breakfast by 2 cents in the 20172018 school year.

By taking this tactic of going visceral on a three-state pilot program, they are putting these other reforms they
want in terrific jeopardy , he said.
Though DeLauro argued that money could have come from somewhere else like the crop insurance program, Rokita said he could
only do so much as a chair on the House Education and the Workforce Subcommittee on Early Childhood, Elementary and Secondary
Education.

What comes through my committee is going to be paid for, but Im limited by my subject matter and I found
it in my subject matter, he said.
 State Budget UQ 2NC
State budgets are stabilizing now but are tight and changes at the federal level
dictate state finances.
Rosewicz, Director of Pew, 5/17/2017
Barb, Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-
analysis/collections/2014/05/19/fiscal-50-state-trends-and-analysis

States regained much of the fiscal and economic ground they lost in the Great Recession, but
have

not all have fully rebounded despite more than seven years of recovery
, as . Some states are in a stronger position than others

they try to gauge how long the economic recovery will last and how Trumps promises of President Donald

action on federal taxes, trade, and health insurance could affect their finances The slow pace of .

tax revenue growth left many with little or no wiggle room in their budgets Nineteen states
has .

and most have a

still collect less tax revenue than at their recession-era peaks , after adjusting for inflation,

thinner financial cushion than they did before the last downturn 16 states . In addition,

employment rates still clearly trail 2007 levels . Despite these challenges, personal income in all states has bounced back above pre-recession figures, though growth
has fallen short of historic norms.

And education funding is tight states are recovering from past losses but
budgets still need time to adjust the plan eliminates education funding as a
source for other budget priorities.
Barrett, program associate with the Education Policy program at New America, 3/27/2017
Ben, HOW BUDGET BATTLES ARE STACKED AGAINST HIGHER EDUCATION
https://psmag.com/news/how-budget-battles-are-stacked-against-higher-education

A sagging economy and a declining tax base all but forced Michigan to tighten its belt following the collapse
of the auto industry, a budgeting crisis that was exacerbated by the 2001 and 2008 national recessions.

Amid these pressures, higher education funding was the most plausible line from which to cut . The
story in Michigan is one that echoes across many states in the country , and it cannot be
disentangled from the tectonic shift that occurred during the wake of the Great Recession. With
Michigans economy concentrated in the once-booming auto industry, declines in American manufacturing and globalization have

taken their toll. The state lost over 850,000 jobs, 356,000 of which were in the manufacturing sector, between 2001 and 2009. Michigans unemployment rate topped out at 15 percent in 2010,
six points above the national average. These trends hurt many families and also cut into the tax base, restricting funds

for the various state programs that could have helped struggling Michiganders most. By 2009, the state faced a $1.6 billion
deficit, which sent lawmakers scrambling. Legislators look at places with the highest number of
dollars. Thats where your eyes tend to go on the balance sheet, again and again, Jondahl explains. But trimming these large budget areas can often be a non-starter. The largest line item in Michigan,
health care, has increased by a whopping 76 percent since 2002 and now constitutes almost half the states total budget. But legislators cant cut Medicaid spending, because the federal government requires

states to spend a certain amount to qualify for federal money. K-12 schools, the second largest budget item, was another unlikely place to shave appropriations. Michigan has a dedicated funding
stream for public education, known as the School Aid Fund. Protected by statute and entitled to a fixed percentage of gross tax revenue, the fund has nonetheless been
used to cushion other budget priorities . Between 2008 and 2015, per-pupil funding was cut
close to $530. There has been an effort now to say where can we get money for higher education. One of the controversial measures was to look at language in the Constitution about the School
Aid Fund, Jondahl says. Since K-12 school funding had already been depleted in the past to balance the budget and prop up universities, the fund is fiercely guarded. That meant the budgets for prisons and
 with rising incarceration costs and after already closing eight prisons,
universities were the only meaningful areas left to cut. But

there was no wiggle room in the corrections budget. There are other sources: federal funds, tuition dollars that can address the higher education
needs, Jondahl says. The answer was pretty clear: Cuts would continue to be shouldered by universities. Federal higher education funding typically comes in the form of vouchers like Pell Grants and loans. This
design makes it easy for states like Michigan to cut general operating support to its universities in times of financial trouble. Furthermore, while the $5 billion Michigan received as part of the federal stimulus
temporarily protected state higher education funding from cuts between 2009 and 2010, this provision expired in 2011, well before the states budget struggles were over. There was more money coming in from
federal sources so that would enable us to save money at the state level, Jondahl says. And while general operating support was locked, the stimulus rules did not prevent many states, including Michigan, from

When an economic crisis

slashing financial aid programs. For every dollar received in stimulus money, states across the nation reduced student aid by an average of 12 cents.

hits, state legislators have relatively few options . Michigans decade-long recession expedited
the process of state disinvestment. But many of the states fiscal issues did not crop up overnight. The real story goes way beyond 10 years, Ruark says. Michigan has a
flaw in its tax structure: It spends more on tax credits than it does in the appropriations process. To rebuild its tax base, the state hoped to attract new jobs with a strategy that cut taxes for businesses, while
raising taxes on individuals. Unfortunately, this plan was insufficient to drive job growth at the level required for the state to restore revenue streams and avoid further cuts.

And ensuring a large financial cushion is necessary for continued state growth
looming challenges means even a low risk of the link pushes states over as they
deal with current recovery.
Rosewicz, Director of Pew, 5/17/2017
Barb, Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-
analysis/collections/2014/05/19/fiscal-50-state-trends-and-analysis

Even states that have overcome the effects of the recession may face financial pressures that
could shape their budgets now and for years to come . A major issue for a number of states is how to cope
with an accumulation of unfunded public pension and retiree health care liabilities , which total more
than $1.5 trillion nationwide. In addition, debate among U.S. lawmakers over financing for Medicaid, which is jointly funded by federal and state governments, has sparked fresh

The health care program accounts for the largest share of total
uncertainty over how much of the costs states will pay.

federal aid to states. Another challenge for states is tax revenue volatility, which can confound
policymakers best efforts to balance budgets.
 Link 2NC
Compliance devastates cafeterias and adds over $1 billion in costs
Paul Bedard 15, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, 9-3-2015,
"Report: Half of schools cut cafeteria staff as kids abandon Obama menus," Washington
Examiner, http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/report-half-of-schools-cut-cafeteria-staff-as-
kids-abandon-obama-menus/article/2571346

President and first lady Michelle Obama's

bid to cut kid obesity through new demands for more costly
but healthier food is financially crushing the nation's school cafeterias, forcing staff cuts,
boosting waste and killing plans to buy new equipment, according to an industry association.

70 percent of the nation's lunch programs have

A new survey from the School Nutrition Association reported that
been financially "harmed" by the new low-salt, low-sugar menus and that a stunning 93 percent
report fewer students buying the chow.

"Meetingthese mandates has harmed the financial health of nearly 70 percent of school meal
programs surveyed, with fewer than 3 percent reporting a financial benefit," said the survey. Some 49 percent of the
responding schools said they were forced to cut cafeteria staff as a result.

The financial threat to school food programs has become so grave that the association is calling on Congress to provide more
money. The association said that schools are being ordered by the Agriculture Department to
absorb another $1.2 billion in added costs resulting from having to buy more expensive and
less attractive foods to meet the federal regulations.

"School nutrition standards have resulted in many positive changes, but we cannot ignore the repercussions the
financial impact of these rules threatens school meal programs and their efforts to better serve
students," said Jean Ronnei, president of the Saint Paul Public Schools in Minnesota.

Worker morale, extra equipment, and declining revenue all drive up costs
Elizabeth Harrington 14, staff writer for the Washington Free Beacon, 3-6-2014, "1M kids
stop school lunch due to Michelle Obamas standards," Washington Times,
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/6/1m-kids-stop-school-lunch-due-michelle-
obamas-stan/

The morale for cafeteria workers has also suffered under the new standards.

Staff in one SFA noted that the increased

amount of time and effort to prepare fruits and vegetables
also led to morale issues when staff saw students throw the fruits and vegetables in the trash, the GAO said.

Lunchroom costs are also going up due to the need for new spoons and ladles to match the
new portion size requirements. Thirty-one percent of SFAs nationwide said they needed additional
kitchen equipment to comply with the new lunch requirements last school year.
The law mandated that schools increase the price of school lunches, causing students to stop buying because they felt they were
being asked to pay more for less food. Kids who pay full price for meals declined by 10 percent last school
year, the lowest rate in over a decade.
Challenges with the school lunch program, which cost $11.6 billion in 2012, are expected to
continue, as further regulations go into effect. The first of three sodium limits starts in 2014-2015, though many of the foods
available from manufacturers do not yet comply with these limits.

The aff devastates school revenues

Paul Bedard 15, the Washington Examiner's "Washington Secrets" columnist, 9-17-2015,
"Education budgets raided to cover Michelle O's costly school lunches," Washington Examiner,
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/education-budgets-raided-to-cover-michelle-os-costly-
school-lunches/article/2572303

Schools nationwide are being forced to raid their education budgets to cover the costs of
federally-mandated school lunches, rejected by students because they taste bad, according to a group the represents
school nutrition professionals.

Once a profit center for schools, cafeterias have

become a financial black hole where schools have to
pay more for healthier food that students turn their noses up to. And the deficits are being made up by
cafeteria worker firings and budget shifting , according to the School Nutrition Association.

"Unfortunately, new federal nutrition standards for school meals have contributed to significant
losses and declining meal sales in our model program, once financially thriving," said SNA President
Jean Ronnei in a letter to the Senate this week.

Ronnei, who oversees the Nutrition Services Department in Saint Paul Public Schools, said districts like hers "have lost
money and could be forced to cut into education funds to cover meal program losses."
Prompted by first lady Michelle Obama's effort to fight childhood obesity, the Agriculture Department has pushed new rules on
schools to offer healthier choices, but those offerings cost more. And students don't like the choices.

Ronnei added that some of the requirements demand ingredients that most Americans don't eat. "While well-intentioned, current
mandates requiring all grains offered to be whole grain rich is unrealistic for schools, let alone families. How many of us eat only
whole grain rich foods at every meal? Schools nationwide are proud to have increased student consumption of whole grains. In the
push to make all school menu items meet this standard, we have lost the ability to appeal to students in diverse communities who
don't eat foods like brown rice at home or in restaurants," said her letter.

But it is the costs of serving foods students don't like that is choking school districts . Ronnei wrote:

"It also contributes to the increased costs school districts have absorbed - USDA estimated the rules
added $1.2 billion in
food and labor costs last year alone. As a result, even with the equipment and labor in place to serve creative, fresh
made meals, districts like SPPS have lost money and could be forced to cut into education funds to
cover meal program losses.
"We all want schools to prepare more foods from scratch using fresh, whole ingredients; however they are losing the necessary
resources to achieve these goals. A School Nutrition Association survey found that nearly 8 in 10 school districts have taken steps to
offset financial losses since implementing new standards. Almost
half reduced staffing, and many cut into
reserve funds and cancelled or deferred equipment purchases."
 Internal Link 2NC
The school lunch budget directly causes other programs to get slashed
Tad Dehaven 10, Research Analyst for the Spending and Budget Initiative at the Mercatus
Center at George Mason University, 6-15-2010, "Food Subsidies Are No Free Lunch," Downsizing
the Federal Government, https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/food-subsidies-are-no-free-
lunch

We are being bombarded with sensationalist stories in the press about state and local
governments having to slash programs because of a lack of revenues. These stories typically
revolve around the question of whether the federal government will continue supplementing
essential services provided by state and local government.

Unfortunately, there seem to be few enterprising journalists at the major newspapers willing to investigate whether these
supposedly essential programs are actually deeply flawed. It is taken for granted, as an example, that cutting federal aid for
local food subsidies would automatically result in hungrier children.
An excellent investigation into the federal lunch program by Kate McCann, a writer for the Southtown Star in Illinois, is precisely the
sort of work reporters at the big papers should be undertaking.

McCann found that taxpayers

are funding school meals for hundreds of local students whose parents
earnings are above the limit for them to legally qualify. Local schools do a poor job of preventing
unqualified students from getting the benefits, and remarkably Congress appears to want it that way:
School districts couldnt conduct a more thorough check even if they wanted to. In 2004, Congress amended the Richard B. Russell
National School Lunch Act, changing the verification process so districts
could not audit more than 3 percent of
the applications. Before, some districts voluntarily chose to audit every application in the district.
After learning of the fraud rate in the free and reduced lunch program, one North Carolina school board fought the U.S. Department
of Agriculture for the right to conduct a more thorough audit. The USDA threatened to cut off the districts $34 million lunch subsidy
if it audited more than 3 percent of applications, according to a report earlier this year in Education Next, an opinion research
journal sponsored by the Hoover Institute and the Harvard Kennedy School.

In the last six decades the school lunch act has inspired a powerful school lunch lobby, including food giants Tyson and Archer
Daniels Midland and various food advocacy and nutrition groups. Attempts to scale back the program have been a political
deathblow to legislators on both sides of the aisle.

If these well-financed and effective lobbying interests keep watch over school lunch from outside government, there is a host of
congressional insiders and bureaucrats at the Department of Agriculture who help grease the skids, wrote researcher Ron Haskins
in a 2005 report for Education Next.

A Cato essay on food subsidies points out the federal school breakfast and lunch programs are riddled with
fraud and abuse:
Like other subsidy programs, the school meal programs are widely abused. A large share of free and reduced-price meals is
inappropriately provided to families with incomes above the statutory income cutoffs. Because schools put little effort into verifying
recipient incomes, many
higher-income parents receive subsidies. Audits have found that about one-quarter of
those receiving free and reduced-cost lunches are not eligible. The USDA testified to Congress that in 2002 27
percent more
students are certified for free or reduced-price meals than the Census data itself would suggest
are eligible.
 Turns Education 2NC
DA turns the aff increased budget cuts undermines overall education
Oklahoma Proves
Brown, Washington Post, 5/27/2017
Emma, With state budget in crisis, many Oklahoma schools hold classes four days a week
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/education/with-state-budget-in-crisis-many-oklahoma-
schools-hold-classes-four-days-a-week/2017/05/27/24f73288-3cb8-11e7-8854-
21f359183e8c_story.html?utm_term=.7ee166bc08b3

NEWCASTLE, Okla. A deepening budget crisis here has forced schools across the Sooner State to make painful decisions Class .

sizes ballooned, art and foreign-language programs have shrunk or disappeared and with no
have ,

money for new textbooks children go without Students in scores of districts are
, . Perhaps the most significant consequence:

now going to school just four days a week The shift not only upends what has long been a .

fundamental rhythm of life . It also runs contrary to the push in many parts of the
for families and communities

country to provide more time for learning and daily reinforcement as a key way to
improve achievement, especially among poor children. funding for classrooms has been But

shrinking for years in this deep-red state as lawmakers have cut taxes slicing away hundreds of millions of ,

dollars in annual revenue in what Oklahomans consider a cautionary tale about the real-life some

consequences of the small-government approach favored by Republican majorities in Washington and

School districts staring down deep budget holes have turned to shorter weeks in
statehouses nationwide.

desperation as a way to save a little bit of money and persuade increasingly hard-to-find
teachers to take some of the nations lowest-paying jobs . Of 513 school districts in Oklahoma, 96 have lopped Fridays or Mondays off their schedules nearly

triple the number in 2015 and four times as many as in 2013. An additional 44 are considering cutting instructional days by moving to a four-day week in the fall or by shortening the school year, the Oklahoma State School Boards Association found in a survey last
month. Sandy Robertson waits to pick up her granddaughter from school in Newcastle. (Bill OLeary/The Washington Post) I dont think its right. I think our kids are losing out on education, said Sandy Robertson, a grandmother of four in Newcastle, a fast-growing

rural community set amid wheat and soybean fields south of Oklahoma City. Theyre trying to cram a five-day week into a four-day week. Oklahoma is not the only state where more
students are getting three-day weekends The number is climbing slowly across
, a concept that dates to the 1930s.

broad swaths of the rural big-sky West driven by , a combination of , fuel-guzzling bus rides and teacher shortages that have turned four-day weeks into an important

recruiting tool. The four-day week is a contagion, said Paul Hill, a research professor at the University of Washington Bothell who has studied the p henomenon in Idaho and who worries that the consequences of the shift particularly for poor kids are

unknown. [From the 2011 archive: In trimming school budgets, more officials turn to a four-day week] But in other states , the Great Recession sparked a spike in the growth of four-day
weeks that has since slowed , according to data collected by The Washington Post. Oklahoma stands out for the velocity with which districts have turned to a shorter school week in the past several years, one
of the most visible signs of a budget crisis that has also shuttered rural hospitals, led to overcrowded prisons and forced state troopers to abide by a 100-mile daily driving limit.
 Turns Health Adv 2NC
Budget cuts turns bioterror and disease scenarios.
IOM 11 (Institute of Medicine, American non-profit, non-governmental organization founded
in 1970, "The Impact of State and Local Budget Cuts on Public Health Preparedness" Institute of
Medicine, 6-13-11,
www.iom.edu/~/media/Files/Activity%20Files/PublicHealth/MedPrep/Impact%20of%20state%2
0and%20local%20budget%20cuts%20on%20PHP.pdf)
This study analyzed the impact of budget cuts on state and local public health preparedness
capabilities. The assessment encompassed seven resource and capabilities elements of public health preparedness: capacity in these areas was
generally in decline, with a few elements staying relatively stable. As for the eighth element, the H1N1 response, there is widespread concern that

were a pandemic to occur in the near future, funding cuts would prevent a repeat of what health officials
a robust 2009 response .159 Several predominant themes emerged from the interviews and document
and subject matter experts felt was

review: 1) Robust all-hazards public health preparedness capabilities require a sustained level of

sufficiently high funding. A strong and steady public health budget enables adequate funding of
the public health infrastructure, from biosurveillance activity to medical surge capacity. This
ideal situation contrasts sharply with the reality at state and local health departments: significant
fluctuations in public health funding marked by large infusions (ARRA and H1N1 funding) and followed by rapid decreases. In this volatile cycle, we see
public health laboratory funding climb from $20 million in FY2001 to almost $200 million in FY2003, before steadily declining to $70 million in FY2008.
The case studies provide tangible examples of the consequences at the state and local level: cutbacks in staff and decreased funding for public health
infrastructure. 2) The average state and local health workforce is rapidly aging, and the next generation of skilled staff and leaders is not being
developed and trained. It is likely that the full impact of these budget cuts on state and local public health preparedness capabilities is yet to be seen.
Roughly one-third of US public health workers will be eligible to retire in the next five years.160 If the currently widespread practice of eliminating
vacated positions persists, then workforce shortages will increase in severity. In addition to the shortage in manpower, valuable institutional knowledge
As state and local health
and experience is likely to be lost, resulting in potentially underfunded and understaffed public health departments. 3)

departments fail to invest adequately in biosurveillance infrastructure and lose their

epidemiological expertise, the resulting decrease in capabilities makes the nation significantly
less secure against intentional and naturally occurring health threats. Of the four capabilities examined,

biosurveillance is arguably the most severely impacted by budget cuts. State and local health
departments play a key role in
the data collection and early-stage analysis for biosurveillance; the supporting infrastructure is
not receiving adequate financial support. State and local health departments are losing a great number of epidemiologists to
layoffs and attrition; capacity in this field appears to be declining even more rapidly than the general trend for public health workers.161 State and local

health departments often have

the first opportunity to detect health threats, from a pandemic to a
bioterrorist attack . While there has been a proliferation of new tools for biosurveillance,
adequate funding is necessary to purchase these tools and pay the associated workforce. If
capabilities continue to decline in this area, it could seriously impact our nations health security.
 Turns the Economy 2NC
State fundraising decimates the economyspending cuts and tax increases
undercut demand.
Quinnell 12 Kenneth Quinnell, political analyst and writer at Crooks & Liars, Adjunct
Instructor in History at Tallahassee Community College, 2012 (New Report Shows State Budget
Cuts Have Hurt the Economy, Crooks & Liars, April 21st, Available Online at
http://crooksandliars.com/kenneth-quinnell/new-report-shows-state-budget-cut, Accessed 06-
27-2012)
A new report from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, "Out of Balance: Cuts in Services Have Been States Primary Response
to Budget Gaps, Harming the Nations Economy," places a spotlight on the right-wing assault on state budgets and the harmful
effects of the growing trend of budget cuts. The state
budget gaps of the last five years led to $290 billion in cuts to
public services and $100 billion in tax and fee increases. Those actions lengthened the recession
and delayed the recovery . Because spending reductions were dominant, hundreds of thousands of jobs
were lost; undermining education, health care and other state priorities, which likely will cause
future economic harm to states. Federal aid mitigated the harmful effects of the spending cuts in the early years of the
budget crunch, but its expiration last year had a catastrophic effect, making 2012 the worst year since the downturn began for cuts
in funding for services. The study looked at budget data for the last five years and found that more than 640,000 jobs have
been cut by the states since 2008, undercutting the economic recovery and helping sustain a
high unemployment rate nationally. Because 2012 has been the worst year for cuts since the recession began, further
job losses are almost guaranteed. The cuts have also led states to cancel contracts with vendors, reduce
payments to businesses and nonprofits that provide services, and cut benefit payments to
individuals all steps that remove demand from the economy . There are long-term effects as well: By
diminishing the quality of elementary and high schools, making college less affordable, and reducing residents access to health
care, the cuts threaten to make the U.S. economy less competitive in coming decades . While there
has been a recent rebound in the growth of revenue at the state level, if the current rate of growth continues, it will take seven
years to get back to where things were before the recession. Overall, the methods used to balance state budgets
often a legal requirement were very focused on methods that harm the economy : *
Spending cuts 44.8 percent * Federal relief funds 24.0 percent * Tax and fee increases 15.5 percent * Raiding
of rainy day funds and other dedicated revenue streams 8.7 percent * Other miscellaneous methods 7.0 percent States have
engaged in such unsustainable and negative tactics to balance their budgets that many more citizens are
in vulnerable situations than before the recession.
Waste Turn
 Waste Turn 1NC
The aff results in more food waste healthier lunches dont get eaten turns
the aff.
San Diego Tribune, 6/2/2017
School lunch rules needed the change
http://www.heraldandnews.com/members/forum/editorials/school-lunch-rules-needed-the-
change/article_75c940ee-b203-538e-ad10-8d779b54233a.html

The Trump administrations decision to relax some of the school lunch rules involving sodium intake, whole grain content and milk approved in
2012, following the provisions of a 2010 law adopted at the behest of then-first lady Michelle Obama, drew fire from some health experts. An American Heart Association official warned that there could be

made a crucial
serious health consequences for students. But in explaining the decision to give school districts the option to not meet strict standards, Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue

point: If kids arent eating the food, and its ending up in the trash, they arent getting any
nutrition thus undermining the intent of the program . Patricia Montague, CEO of the School
Nutrition Association, agreed with the decision: We have been wanting flexibility so that
schools can serve meals that are both nutritious and palatable . We dont want kids wasting their
meals by throwing them away . The evidence that the lunch rules backfired is considerable . A
2013 study estimated that 1.1 million students had stopped buying school lunches in the 2012-
13 school year, the first year-to-year decline after nearly a decade of steady increases. Another
2013 study pegged the annual cost of wasted food at school cafeterias at $1.24 billion . Anyone who
doubts student antipathy to school food should search #ThanksMichelleObama on Twitter for a look at photos of lunches that left kids fed up instead of fed. Good intentions dont

always pay off with good results. Having a healthy school lunch menu achieves nothing if the
lunch goes uneaten.
 Turns the Aff 2NC
Increased amounts of food waste turns the aff and undermines any nutritional
value
Grills, PhD in Public Policy, 2015
Derek, Dissertation, The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act and High School Obesity
http://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2380&context=dissertations

Long-term, widespread increases in high school obesity rates, despite the devastating individual and societal healthcare costs,
suggests that obesity is caused by multiple interrelated factors and is not subject to influence by knowledge of 75 consequences (Skelton, et al.,
2012) . Research suggests that a well-balanced diet rich in fruit and vegetables is the healthiest lifestyle in terms of obesity. The fact that the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) provides 33% of the nutritional

Despite these seemingly related observations,

needs for 28 million school children of low income families makes it an attractive point for federal intervention.

there was no evidence in the literature, nor in this study, that modifying the amount and types
of food provided by NLSP would have any effect on high school obesity rates. This finding is
important in light of the complaints by school boards that children were throwing away the fruit
and vegetables served in the school cafeteria. Using the NSLP to reduce obesity may have the
perverse effect of children consuming less nutrition than recommended due to increases in
fruit and vegetables that are not consumed.
 Plan Increases Waste Prodict 2NC
Plan increases food wastetheir studies are based on biased anecdotal
evidence by school officials who have an incentive to make it seem like their
programs are working
Welch 2015
Ashley, correspondent for CBS covering wellness and health, School lunch fruits and veggies often tossed in trash, study finds, CBS,
August 25, http://www.cbsnews.com/news/school-lunch-fruits-and-veggies-often-tossed-in-trash-study-finds/

New federal guidelines requiring healthier school lunches have made headlines in recent years,
but that doesn't mean kids are eating them up. In fact, a study conducted soon after the Healthy,
Hunger-Free Kids Act went into effect found what many parents suspected: a lot of school children were
taking the required fruits and vegetables and throwing them directly into the trash . The small study,
published online Tuesday in Public Health Reports, comes about a month before Congress is scheduled to vote on whether to reauthorize the program. Researchers

from the University of Vermont used digital photography to capture images of students' lunch
trays after they selected their food, as they were leaving the lunch line, and again at the end of
their lunch as they passed the food disposal area. They found that while children placed more fruits and vegetables on their trays - as
required by the USDA mandates put in place in 2012 - they consumed fewer of them. The amount of food wasted

increased by 56 percent , the researchers found. "We saw this as a great opportunity to access the policy change and ask a really important question, which
was, 'Does requiring a child to select a fruit or vegetable under the updated national school lunch

program guidelines that came into effect in 2012 correspond with increased fruit and vegetable
consumption?'" lead study author Sarah Amin told CBS News. " The answer was clearly no ." Amin and her team
documented hundreds of tray observations over 21 visits to two elementary schools in the
Northeast both before and shortly after the implementation of the USDA guidelines. About half of
the students at the schools qualified for free or reduced price lunch, a marker for low socioeconomic status. This isn't
the first study to look at fruit and vegetable consumption in school children after the federal guidelines passed. A 2014 study from the Harvard

School of Public Health found the opposite result - that kids actually ate more fruits and
vegetables after the new standards were put into place. Amin said that although the sample of two
schools in the current study is small, the results correspond to anecdotal information from
school nutrition directors and other school officials about kids' responses to the school meal
regulations. "We used rigorous, validated dietary assessment methods," she said. "That's what really bolsters our
confidence in these findings. They may not be generalizable across the country. There might be different patterns depending on different sociodemographic characteristics, but
for the schools we collected data on and in that time period using these methods, we're confident in our findings."
 Student Backlash Link 2NC
Students backlash to new rules decreases participation and causes more
uneaten foods.
Murphy 2015
Kate, New York Times correspondent regarding health and education, Why Students Hate School Lunches, New York Times,
September 26, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/27/sunday-review/why-students-hate-school-lunches.html

Food and nutrition directors at school districts nationwide say that their trash cans are
overflowing while their cash register receipts are diminishing as children either toss out the
healthier meals or opt to brown-bag it . While no one argues that the solution is to scrap the law and go back to feeding children junk, theres
been a movement to relax a few of the guidelines as Congress considers whether to reauthorize the legislation, particularly mandates for 100 percent whole grains and

Other than mandating more fruits

extremely low sodium levels, so school meals will be a bit more palatable and reflective of culinary traditions.

and vegetables, the new regulations havent really changed anything except force
manufacturers to re-engineer products so they meet the guidelines but not childrens taste
expectations , said Bertrand Weber, director of culinary and nutrition services at the Minneapolis Public Schools. Now kids get whole grain
doughnuts whoop-de-do. And yet, cafeteria operators complain, the new regulations forbid them
to serve a classic baguette, semolina pasta or jasmine rice, much less the butter and flavorful
sauces that often go with them. Never mind that these are staples of diets in other cultures with
far lower rates of childhood and adult obesity than in the United States. Consider that in France, where the childhood
obesity rate is the lowest in the Western world, a typical four-course school lunch (cucumber salad with vinaigrette, salmon lasagna with spinach, fondue with baguette for
dipping and fruit compote for dessert) would probably not pass muster under the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act, because of the refined grains, fat, salt and calories. Nor would

the weekly piece of dark chocolate cake. By comparison, a typical federally approved school lunch in the United States is a
reformulated Philly cheesesteak sandwich (low-fat, low-salt processed cheese and lean mystery meat on a whole grain bun) with
steamed green beans, a potato wedge, canned peaches and an apple. Students often have less than 20 minutes to eat
this before returning to class, while French children may have as long as two hours to eat and socialize. Not surprisingly, American kids, whether pressed for time or

just grossed out, leave much of their meals untouched; particularly neglected are the fruits and

vegetables, which they are now forced to put on their trays before they can exit the cafeteria line. The School Nutrition
Association said that 70 percent of school meal programs had taken a significant financial hit since the new mandates went into effect. Cafeteria operators

from Los Angeles to New York report discouraging amounts of food waste and declining
participation. We lost 15 percent of our revenue when we started putting the Healthy,
Hunger-Free Kids Act into place, said Chris Burkhardt, director of child nutrition and wellness at the Lakota Local School District in southwestern
Ohio. I talk to P.T.O. and P.T.A. groups and ask how many serve only whole grains and low sodium foods at home and maybe one hand goes up, adding that hes not convinced
that person was telling the truth.
 Stats Prove Link 2NC
Statistics prove the turn over 1 million students dont consume the lunches
and create more waste.
Harrington 2014
Elizabeth, staff writer for the Washington Free Beacon, 1M kids stop school lunch due to Michelle Obamas
standards, Washington Times, March 6, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/6/1m-kids-stop-school-
lunch-due-michelle-obamas-stan/
New school lunch standards implemented as a result of First Lady Michelle Obamas anti-obesity campaign have led to more than 1 million children leaving the lunch line,

the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act

according to a new report. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a wide-ranging audit of

nutrition standards last week, finding 48 out of 50 states faced challenges complying with Mrs. Obamas Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act. The new standards led
to kids throwing out their fruits and vegetables, student boycotts, higher lunch costs, and odd
food pairings such as cheese stick with shrimp in order for schools to comply with the
complicated rules. The National School Lunch Program saw a sharp decline in participation once
the healthy standards went into effect during the 2012-2013 school year. A total of 1,086,000 students stopped
buying school lunch , after participation had increased steadily for nearly a decade. The report found that
321 districts left the National School Lunch Program altogether , many of which cited the new standards as a factor.
Though the USDA has claimed the standards were proving popular, the GAO report cited numerous cases where kids are

unhappy with their new menus. The standards forced some schools to stop serving peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, and led
middle school and high school students to opt for vending machines or buying food off campus to
avoid the lunch line. The GAO conducted a nationwide survey of nutrition directors and visited 17 schools

in eight school districts for the audit. In each district, students expressed dislike for certain foods that were
served to comply with the new requirements , such as whole grain-rich products and vegetables in the beans and peas (legumes) and
red-orange sub-groups, and this may have affected participation. The standards brought negative student reactions. In one case,

middle school and high school students organized a three-week boycott after their school
changed their sandwiches to comply with the rules. All eight School Food Authorities (SFAs) the GAO visited modified or eliminated
popular food items. One district had to cut cheeseburgers because adding cheese to the districts burger patties would have made it difficult to stay within the weekly meat

The new standards are exhaustive, including calorie ranges for each age group, sodium
maximums.

limits, zero tolerance for trans fats, and specific ounce amounts for meats and grains. White bread will be
mostly phased out beginning in 2014 because only whole grain rich items will be allowed. Portion requirements and calorie limits are also in conflict, leading some SFAs to add
unhealthy food such as pudding or potato chips to the menu, and serve odd food combinations in order to meet the rules. For example, one SFA served saltine crackers and
croutons with certain salads to meet the minimum daily grain requirement and a cheese stick with shrimp to meet the minimum daily meat requirement, the GAO said.

Unappetizing food led to the biggest problem school officials faced: food waste . Students may
take the food components they are required to as part of the school lunch but then choose not
to eat them , the GAO said. As a result, 48 out of 50 states cited waste as a challenge . In our lunch period
observations in 7 of 17 schools, we saw many students throw away some or all of their fruits
and vegetables, the GAO said. The morale for cafeteria workers has also suffered under the new standards. Staff in one SFA noted that the increased amount of
time and effort to prepare fruits and vegetables also led to morale issues when staff saw students throw the fruits and vegetables in the trash, the GAO said.
School Budgets Turn
 School Budgets Turn 1NC
Compliance costs overwhelms the affs benefits forces schools the raise the
costs of lunches which causes less kids to eat them undermining health
benefits.
Wolfgang, The Washington Times Contributor, 2011
Ben, Healthier school lunch at what cost?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/may/16/healthier-school-lunch-at-what-cost/

If the federal government gets its way school lunches will be more expensive and less , critics are warning,

appetizing and ultimately will leave school districts footing the bill for costly food going down
the garbage disposal Under regulations . proposed this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture would have
the final say on what students eat. Educators fear the guidelines , trumpeted by first lady Michelle Obama and others as a key to curbing childhood obesity, will take a
huge bite out of school budgets while resulting in healthier meals that make youngsters
turn up their noses Under the proposed rule, school meals would become so restrictive they
.

would be unpalatable to many students , said Karen Castaneda, director of food service at Pennridge School District in Perkasie, Pa. For example, Ms. Castaneda said, the proposed sodium

restrictions for student lunches resemble diets previously reserved for those battling serious illnesses such as kidney disease. The rules also would require students to eat more fruits and vegetables, forcing schools to serve extra apples and broccoli even if
experience shows that children cant - or wont - eat them. Breakfast programs are especially worrisome. The proposal will double the fruit serving [and] would add a required meat serving daily, said Sally Spero, food planning supervisor for the San Diego Unified

The
School District. Nothing is achieved when money is spent on food that children wont even be able to consume and nothing is more disheartening than to see perfectly good and perfectly untouched food thrown into the trash.

regulations would also require schools to spend more money for fresh fruits and vegetables . Many

districts now serve cheaper canned fruits or frozen vegetables. Administration officials say they have no interest in becoming what one called the cupcake police, and noted that educators, parents and the general public had been given time to comment and
suggest changes. The public comment period ended April 13, and all suggestions will be analyzed and possibly incorporated into the final version, the Agriculture Department said in a statement Friday to The Washington Times. The department also noted that the

What the government sees as a drive for

proposed rules are meant solely to align school meals with the dietary guidelines as recommended by National Academies Institute of Medicine.

more nutritious meals, some in the states see as an unfunded mandate from Washington. Ms.

Castaneda said her districts food budget, including breakfast and lunch programs, would
increase by $111,234 under the guidelines taking shape. Federal school lunch program
reimbursements would cover $32,460, leaving the Pennridge district little choice but to raise
lunch prices to come up with the remaining $78,774. Our concern is that the proposed

regulation may result in having the opposite effect to that which it desires, driving up costs
and driving children out of the program , said Barry Sackin, owner of B. Sackin and Associates, a consulting firm specializing in school nutrition. Many of those issues received an airing at

a House subcommittee hearing last week at which Mr. Sackin, Ms. Castaneda and Ms. Spero all testified. Some House Republicans have raised questions over whether the Obama administration has overstepped its authority in trying to dictate nutritional and other
values for local school lunch programs. After President Obama signed the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act last year, Agriculture Department officials began crafting the new dietary rules, which remain under internal review. While supporting healthy food for students,
Mr. Sackin said, the proposed rule strives for perfection by sacrificing the very good. Unfortunately, there is a perception that if we fix school meals we can fix childhood obesity. But the reality is that school meals are already the healthiest meals that many
children eat, he told lawmakers. The fact that too many children start school already overweight certainly suggests that schools arent the cause. The American Association of School Administrators has called the plan a direct unfunded mandate imposed on

. The National School Boards Association on Friday released a statement saying it is

school districts

gravely concerned about the financial impact the law could have on school districts at a time
when many are in dire economic straits. Two years after implementation, the cost of a school breakfast may increase by more than 25 cents. The cost of a school lunch will have increased

by more than 7 cents, said Rep. Duncan Hunter, the California Republican who chairs the House subcommittee focusing on primary and secondary education issues. The total compliance costs will
reach $6.8 billion by 2016, costs that will fall heavily on states and schools.

The plan drains school budgets---that directly trades off with teaching and turns
the academic performance advantage
Daren Bakst 14, The Heritage Foundation's research fellow in agricultural policy, 6-24-2014,
"Why Michelle Obama Is Wrong on School Lunches," Heritage Foundation,
http://www.heritage.org/public-health/commentary/why-michelle-obama-wrong-school-
lunches
This arrogance is on display in the current controversy over the
new and restrictive federal school meal
standards. Since the 2010-11 school year, participation in the school lunch program has fallen
dramatically after more than a decade of growth. Most of the decline occurred in the 2012-2013 school year,
when participation fell by over a million students. This just so happens to be the first year that the standards were in effect.

Schools are incurring massive costs to comply with the standards. Some schools have
reportedly transferred money out of their teaching budgets to cover the food costs. Theres
massive plate waste, food storage and equipment costs, and little flexibility for local schools
to meet the needs of their students.

Michelle Obama has scolded anyone who dares to address concerns about these standards, including the School Nutrition
Association (SNA), which represents more than 55,000 school nutrition professionals. That may be the
only way to counter the legitimate concerns that the school systems foot soldiers are seeing firsthand.

SNA, though, isnt the only organization highlighting the problems. The
independent Government Accountability
Office did a survey of school nutrition officers. These officials expressed similar concerns,
including problems with plate waste and food costs.

According to the National School Board Association, School boards cannot ignore the higher costs and
operational issues created by the rigid mandates of the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act.
 Waste Link 2NC
Increased waste causes revenue losses
Murphy 2015
Kate, New York Times correspondent regarding health and education, Why Students Hate School Lunches, New York Times,
September 26, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/27/sunday-review/why-students-hate-school-lunches.html

Food and nutrition directors at school districts nationwide say that their trash cans are
overflowing while their cash register receipts are diminishing as children either toss out the
healthier meals or opt to brown-bag it. While no one argues that the solution is to scrap the law and go back to feeding children
junk, theres been a movement to relax a few of the guidelines as Congress considers whether to reauthorize the legislation, particularly mandates for
100 percent whole grains and extremely low sodium levels, so school meals will be a bit more palatable and reflective of culinary traditions. Other
than mandating more fruits and vegetables, the new
regulations havent really changed anything except force manufacturers to re-engineer
products so they meet the guidelines but not childrens taste expectations , said Bertrand Weber, director of
culinary and nutrition services at the Minneapolis Public Schools. Now kids get whole grain doughnuts whoop-de-do. And yet, cafeteria operators
complain, the new regulations forbid them to serve a classic baguette, semolina pasta or jasmine rice, much less the butter and flavorful sauces that
often go with them. Never mind that these are staples of diets in other cultures with far lower rates of childhood and adult obesity than in the United
States. Consider that in France, where the childhood obesity rate is the lowest in the Western world, a
typical four-course school lunch (cucumber salad with vinaigrette, salmon lasagna with spinach, fondue with baguette for dipping and
fruit compote for dessert) would probably not pass muster under the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act ,
because of the refined grains, fat, salt and calories. Nor would the weekly piece of dark chocolate cake. By comparison, a typical federally approved
school lunch in the United States is a reformulated Philly cheesesteak sandwich (low-fat, low-salt processed cheese and lean mystery meat on a
whole grain bun) with steamed green beans, a potato wedge, canned peaches and an apple. Students often have less than 20 minutes to eat this
before returning to class, while French children may have as long as two hours to eat and socialize. Not surprisingly, American
kids,
whether pressed for time or just grossed out, leave much of their meals untouched; particularly
neglected are the fruits and vegetables, which they are now forced to put on their trays before
they can exit the cafeteria line. The School Nutrition Association said that 70 percent of school meal programs had taken a significant
financial hit since the new mandates went into effect. Cafeteria operators from Los Angeles to New York report

discouraging amounts of food waste and declining participation . We lost 15 percent of our
revenue when we started putting the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act into place , said Chris
Burkhardt, director of child nutrition and wellness at the Lakota Local School District in southwestern Ohio. I talk to P.T.O. and P.T.A. groups and ask
how many serve only whole grains and low sodium foods at home and maybe one hand goes up, adding that hes not convinced tha t person was
telling the truth.
 Fixed Costs Link 2NC
Fixed capital costs to meet the affs regulations overwhelms school budgets
Harrington 2014
Elizabeth, staff writer for the Washington Free Beacon, 1M kids stop school lunch due to Michelle Obamas standards, Washington
Times, March 6, http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/mar/6/1m-kids-stop-school-lunch-due-michelle-obamas-stan/

Students may take the food components they are required to as part of the school lunch but
then choose not to eat them, the GAO said. As a result, 48 out of 50 states cited waste as a challenge. In our lunch period observations in 7 of 17
schools, we saw many students throw away some or all of their fruits and vegetables, the GAO said. The morale for cafeteria workers has also suffered under the new
standards. Staff in one SFA noted that the increased amount of time and effort to prepare fruits and vegetables also led to morale issues when staff saw students throw the

fruits and vegetables in the trash, the GAO said. Lunchroom costs are also going up due to the need for new
spoons and ladles to match the new portion size requirements. Thirty-one percent of SFAs
nationwide said they needed additional kitchen equipment to comply with the new lunch
requirements last school year. The law mandated that schools increase the price of school lunches, causing students to stop buying because they felt
they were being asked to pay more for less food. Kids who pay full price for meals declined by 10 percent last school

year, the lowest rate in over a decade. Challenges with the school lunch program, which cost $11.6 billion in
2012, are expected to continue, as further regulations go into effect . The first of three sodium limits starts in 2014-
2015, though many of the foods available from manufacturers do not yet comply with these limits. School officials noted, it will be very difficult to
serve food that is palatable to students under the sodium standards.
Academic Performance Advantage
 Plan Doesnt Solve Education 1NC
Plan doesnt solve the US unable to close the gap in education behind other
countries
Aria Bendix 17, Contributor for The Atlantic, Examining Poor School Performance in the U.S.,
The Atlantic, 3/23/17, https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2017/03/examining-
poor-school-performance-in-the-us/520653/

Tom Loveless, the reports author, concludes that international students think U.S.
schools do not fully embrace
inculcating knowledge as the high schools primary institutional mission. But how true is this
perception? Are U.S. schools any less rigorous or knowledge-focused than their international competitors? Well, the foreign-
exchange students might be onto something.

To determine how the United States compares with other educational systems, Loveless turned to
two reliable international assessments: the Program for International Students Assessment (PISA) and the
Trends in International Math and Science Study (TIMSS). Although the two tests are highly correlated, they dont necessarily test
the same knowledge or skills. And while the PISA studies 15-year-old students every three years, the TIMSS studies fourth- and
eighth-graders every four years. Both programs conducted tests in 2015 and released their findings the following year.
Compared with other economically developed countries in Europe and Asia, the United States
was not a top performer on either test.

In fact, Loveless finds Americas PISA

scores to be mediocre. From 2012 to 2015, the nation saw little
change in its performance in science and reading, ranking just ahead of the international
average for both subjects. By contrast, math scores in the United States took a significant dip in 2015, declining by 11
points since the last PISA in 2012.

The nations scores on the TIMSS are slightly better. The report finds that eighth-grade American students saw a significant
improvement in their math and science scores in 2015, with math scores rising by 26 points and science scores by 17 points over the
last two decades. While Loveless describes this as a rosier picture, the
data becomes more sobering when he
considers the results for Singapore, the highest-scoring nation in both math and science. In
2015, the United States trailed Singapore by 66 points in eighth-grade science and by 103 points
in eighth-grade math. At this rate, Loveless estimates, it could take more than 140 years for the
nation to close the gap in its math scores.
 Plan Doesnt solve Education 2NC
Alt cause to declining school performance teacher education
George Leef 13, Contributor for Forbes, A Key Reason Why American Students Do Poorly,
10/24/13, Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeleef/2013/10/24/a-key-reason-why-
american-students-do-poorly/#18492fc12349

Although some youngAmericans graduate from high school with superb academic skills, a great many leave high school
with pathetic abilities in crucial areas: reading, writing, basic math, and reasoning. One of the
key reasons why thats so is that many of their teachers are not very good themselves. Yes, they
have their college degrees, but those degrees are easily acquired by some of the weakest students colleges admit.

An article in the October 24 Wall Street Journal, Why Teacher Colleges Get a Flunking Grade by Barbara Nemko and Harold
Kwalwasser illuminates the problem. They write that entrance requirements to most colleges of education are too lax, and the
requirements for graduation are too low.

Theyre right. The trouble with colleges of education, where most American teachers receive their
training (although thats hardly an apt description) has been known for a long time. Back in 1991, Rita Kramers book Ed School
Follies: The Miseducation of Americas Teachers showed that our ed schools were [are] giving the country a steady
stream of intellectually mediocre teachers who had been steeped in dubious educational
theories, but often knew little about the subject matter they were to teach. Since then, an avalanche of
criticism has come down on education schools, but the only changes have been cosmetic.

But if the product of these schools is so poor, why isnt there pressure for serious change? The
answer is that they are
protected by state licensing laws that make it very hard for public school officials to hire anyone
who doesnt have the obligatory credentials. In short, the ed schools have a guaranteed market
and are shielded from competition. The professors and administrators are happy with the way things are, and often
express resentment at anyone who suggests that their courses and philosophy do not lead to competent teachers.

One of the problem areas identified by Nemko and Kwalwasser is math. In 2010, the average education school student had a math
SAT score of only 486 (compared with an average of 516 for all freshmen). Weak knowledge of math could probably be overcome if
the schools thought it to be important, but they dont. Too
often, these future educators learn to teach math,
but they dont necessarily learn how to do the math itself, the authors write.
That observation dovetails with that of math teacher Barry Garelick, who was already a good mathematician but needed to go
through ed school to get the credential he had to have before he could teach math in a local high school. He wrote about his
experiences in this piece published last August by my organization, the Pope Center for Higher Education Policy. Garelick summed up
his argument against the approach to math instruction favored by the education establishment: The
ed school approach
to teaching math seeks to minimize inauthentic learning by replacing it with so-called
authentic exercises. But presenting students with a steady diet of challenging problems that
neither connect immediately with their prior knowledge, lessons and instruction, nor develop
any transferrable skills results in poor learning.

School lunches are nowhere near enough to solve the immense scale of how
bad the education system is
Laurence Steinberg 14, Psychology Professor at Temple University in Philadelphia, Whats
Holding Back American Teenagers? 2/11/14, Slate,
http://www.slate.com/articles/life/education/2014/02/high_school_in_america_a_complete_di
saster.html
Every once in a while, education policy squeezes its way onto President Obamas public agenda, as it did during last months State of
the Union address. Lately, two issues have grabbed his (and just about everyone elses) attention: early-childhood education and
access to college. But while these scholastic bookends are important, there is an awful lot of room for improvement between them.
American high schools, in particular, are a disaster.
In international assessments, our elementary school students generally score toward the top of the distribution, and our middle
school students usually place somewhat above the average. But our
high school students score well below the
international average, and they fare especially badly in math and science compared with our
countrys chief economic rivals.
Whats holding back our teenagers?

One clue comes from a little-known 2003 study based on OECD data that compares the worlds 15-year-olds on two measures of
student engagement: participation and belongingness. The measure of participation was based on how often students attended
school, arrived on time, and showed up for class. The measure of belongingness was based on how much students felt they fit in to
the student body, were liked by their schoolmates, and felt that they had friends in school. We might think of the first measure as an
index of academic engagement and the second as a measure of social engagement.

On the measure of academic engagement, the U.S. scored only at the international average, and far lower than our chief economic
rivals: China, Korea, Japan, and Germany. In these countries, students show up for school and attend their classes more reliably than
almost anywhere else in the world. But on the measure of social engagement, the United States topped China, Korea, and Japan.

In America, high school is for socializing. Its a convenient gathering place, where the really
important activities are interrupted by all those annoying classes. For all but the very best
American studentsthe ones in AP classes bound for the nations most selective colleges and universitieshigh school
is tedious and unchallenging. Studies that have tracked American adolescents moods over the
course of the day find that levels of boredom are highest during their time in school.
One might be tempted to write these findings off as mere confirmation of the well-known fact that adolescents find everything
boring. In fact, a huge proportion of the worlds high school students say that school is boring. But American high
schools
are even more boring than schools in nearly every other country, according to OECD surveys. And surveys of
exchange students who have studied in America, as well as surveys of American adolescents who have studied abroad, confirm this.
More than half of American high school students who have studied in another country agree that our schools are easier. Objectively,
they are probably correct: American high school students spend far less time on schoolwork than their counterparts in the rest of
the world.

Trends in achievement within the U.S. reveal just how bad our high schools are relative to our schools for younger students. The
National Assessment of Educational Progress, administered by the U.S. Department of Education, routinely tests three age groups: 9-
year-olds, 13-year-olds, and 17-year-olds. Over the past 40 years, reading scores rose by 6 percent among 9-year-olds and 3 percent
among 13-year-olds. Math scores rose by 11 percent among 9-year-olds and 7 percent among 13-year-olds.

By contrast, high school students havent made any progress at all. Reading
and math scores have remained flat
among 17-year-olds, as have their scores on subject area tests in science, writing, geography,
and history. And by absolute, rather than relative, standards, American high school students
achievement is scandalous.

In other words, over

the past 40 years, despite endless debates about curricula, testing, teacher
training, teachers salaries, and performance standards, and despite billions of dollars invested
in school reform, there has been no improvementnonein the academic proficiency of
American high school students.
Its not just No Child Left Behind or Race to the Top that has failed our adolescentsits every
single thing we have tried. The list of unsuccessful experiments is long and dispiriting. Charter high
schools dont perform any better than standard public high schools, at least with respect to student achievement. Students whose
teachers teach for America dont achieve any more than those whose teachers came out of conventional teacher certification
programs. Once one accounts for differences in the family backgrounds of students who attend public and private high schools,
there is no advantage to going to private school, either. Vouchers make no difference in student outcomes. No wonder school
administrators and teachers from Atlanta to Chicago to my hometown of Philadelphia have been caught fudging data on student
performance. Its the only education strategy that consistently gets results.
 Plan doesnt solve Nutrition 1NC
Program doesnt make kids healthier
Julie Kelly 5/8, Contributor to the Federalist and National Review Online, Trump
Administration Nibbles At Michelle Obamas School Lunch Mess, The Federalist, 5/8/17,
http://thefederalist.com/2017/05/08/trump-administration-nibbles-michelle-obamas-school-
lunch-mess/

There is scant evidence the law has achieved any measurable success, particularly in lowering
childhood obesity rates. According to one Centers for Disease Control survey, the obesity rate among high
school students has increased from 13 percent in 2011 to 13.9 percent in 2015, with higher spikes
among some demographics. Other studies show a slight uptick in fruit and vegetable consumption at some school districts, but
whether that affects current or long-term health is unclear.

We Dont Know Enough to Make National Nutrition Plans

The bigger problem is that the guidelines are not rooted in science. There
is no proof a diet low in sugar, sodium,
and fat is healthier for children with developing brains and bodies. In fact, the lunch
requirements mirror much of the same misguided dietary advice the federal government has
given adults for more than three decades.

Eliminating fat from our diets has not made American adults healthier or slimmer, and the same
goes for children. For example, Canadian researchers recently found children who drank whole milk had
higher Vitamin D intake and a lower body mass index than children who drank low-fat milk. Fat-
free dairy products fail to satiate hungry appetites and are usually loaded with other fillers like extra sugar and artificial thickeners.
Allowing schools to now offer 1 percent milk instead of skim doesnt do much in this direction, either.

Same for sodium. Right now, a high school lunch cant have more than roughly a two-third teaspoon of
sodium, which might sound generous but given the amount of naturally occurring sodium in
everything from lunchmeat to salad dressing, its already a challenge. The next target would have reduced
that further, to less than half a teaspoon. So while delaying the next target is laudable, there is no nutritional science
that supports the current sodium limits. It leaves in place a needless regulation that will do
nothing to make kids healthier or less hungry.
 Plan Doesnt Solve Nutrition 2NC
Alt cause poverty
Jennifer Wallace 17, Writer for the Burlington Free Press, Root cause of food insecurity,
6/15/17, Burlington Free Press, http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/opinion/my-
turn/2017/06/15/opinion-root-cause-food-insecurity/102786590/

Today there are 50 million Americans, and 1

in 4 being children, who have identified as being food insecure.
Food insecurity is not having the resources to provide an adequate amount of affordable and
nutritious food. One expert from the film defined food insecurity as being unsure of where the next meal is coming from. Here
in Vermont it is estimated that 13 percent of all households are food insecure.

Hunger and obesity are neighbors, says author Raj Patel in the film. Both conditions are signs of insufficient funds for
food to stay healthy. Since 1980 the price of vegetables has gone up 40 percent, while at the same time the price of processed foods
has gone down by 40 percent. The documentary argues that the rising trends in obesity are largely due to an over
abundance of cheap, processed foods.

The problem of hunger in the United States is not for a scarcity of food. The root cause of this
endemic problem is a growing disparity between the rich and the poor. The U.S. Census reports 14.5
percent of the country lives below the poverty level. Income disparity is a reality for many working individuals
and families living in Vermont.
 Plan Doesnt solve Cognitive Development 2NC
The plan doesnt solve adequate nutrition
Rachel Lucas 17, Reporter/Anchor for WSLS 10 in Southwest Virginia, Rising cost of food
pushes food insecure even farther behind, WSLS 10, 5/31/17,
http://www.wsls.com/news/local/rising-cost-of-food-pushes-food-insecure-even-farther-behind

New research from Feeding America Southwest Virginia shows that money for those facing food insecurity is
getting even tighter.
The latest Map the Meal Gap report for Southwest Virginia shows that all counties in the region face food insecurity. Rates range
from as low as 7.3 point percent of the population in Bedford County to the high rate of 21.8 percent in Martinsville City. The study
also finds that people currently facing hunger are likely falling further behind as they continue to struggle to buy enough food to
meet their needs. Food-insecure individuals now face, on average, a food budget shortfall of $17.01 per person each week. Thats up
from $16.56 last year.

Amanda Allen with Feeding America Southwest Virginia says the reason for the rise in the budget shortfall of food
budgets per person per week is likely due to the rising cost of food, while their economic status remains unchanged.

"The cost of food, the cost of a meal has risen in a lot of places and I think that makes it difficult,
for some they are already facing economic challenges and the cost of food goes up and now it
gets harder and harder," Allen said
The latest report details food insecurity and the cost of food at both the county and congressional district level. The national average
food insecurity rate across all counties is 14 percent.

This important research continues to show that Feeding America Southwest Virginias mission is critical to the lives of those in our
region facing hunger, says Pamela Irvine, Feeding America Southwest Virginias President and CEO. Residents
who were
already struggling find themselves struggling even more. In areas such as Virginias coalfields, the
challenging economic conditions mean even more people face food insecurity than in previous
years.
Feeding America Southwest Virginia is one of 200 food banks in the Feeding America network that collectively provide food
assistance to 46 million Americans struggling with hunger. Serving 26 counties and nine cities through a network of more than 350
partner programs in Southwest Virginia, FASWVA distributed enough food to provide 14.6 million meals in 2016.

Itis disheartening to realize that millions of hardworking, low-income Americans are finding it
increasingly difficult to feed themselves and their families at the same time that our economy is
showing many signs of improvement, including a substantial decline in the number of people
who are unemployed, said Diana Aviv, CEO of Feeding America. This study underscores the need for strong
federal nutrition programs as well of the importance of charitable food assistance programs ,
especially the food pantries and meal programs served by the Feeding America network of food banks.
 No Impact 1NC
Economic power not key to hegemony
Kapila 10 [Dr. Subhash Kapila is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst and the
Consultant for Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group and a graduate of the Royal
British Army Staff College with a Masters in Defence Science and a PhD in Strategic Studies.,
21st Century: Strategically A Second American Century With Caveats, June 26,
http://www.eurasiareview.com/201006263919/21st-century-strategically-a-second-american-
century-with-caveats.html]

Strategically, the 20th Century was decidedly an American Century. United States strategic,
military, political and economic predominance was global and undisputed. In the bi-polar global power
structure comprising the United States and the Former Soviet Union it was the United States which globally prevailed. The 20th Century's dawn was marked by the First
World War which marked the decline of the old European colonial powers, noticeably Great Britain. The Second World War marked the total eclipse of Great Britain and
other colonial powers. The United States replaced Great Britain as the new global superpower. The 20th Century's end witnessed the end of the Cold War, with the

On the verge of the new

disintegration of the Former Soviet Union as the United States strategic challenger and counter-vailing power.

millennium the United States strode the globe like a colossus as the sole global super power.
With a decade of the 21st Century having gone past, many strategic and political analysts the
world over have toyed with projections that United States global predominance is on the
decline, and that the 21st Century will not be a second American Century. Having toyed, with such projections, these analysts however shy away from predicting
whose century the 21st Century will strategically be? The trouble with such projections is that they are based

predominantly on analyses of economic trends and financial strengths and less on detailed
analyses of strategic and military strengths, and more significantly strategic cultures. Presumably, it
is easier for such analysts to base trends on much quoted statistical data. Strategic analysis
of global predominance trends is a more complex task in the opinion of the Author, as it cannot be based on statistical data
analysis. Global predominance trends need unravelling of strategic cultures of contending

powers, the reading of national intentions and resolve and the inherent national strengths and willpower demonstrated over a
considerable time span of half-centuries and centuries. Crisply put, one needs to remember
that in the 1980's, Japan and Germany as "economic superpowers" could not emerge as
global superpowers. Hence global predominance calls for more than economic strengths. The
United States getting strategically bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan in the first decade of
the 21st Century has not led to any noticeable decline in American global predominance.
Despite Iraq and Afghanistan, the United States reigns supreme globally even in East Asia where
China could have logically challenged it. More significantly, and normally forgotten, is the fact that the off-quoted shift
of global and economic power from the West to East was facilitated by United States massive
financial direct investments in China, Japan, South Korea and India. China quoted as the next
superpower to rival the United States would be economically prostate, should the United States surgically
disconnect China's economic and financial linkages to the United States. More significantly, while examining
the prospects of the 21st Century as a "Second American Century" it must be remembered that besides other factors, that out of the six multipolar

contenders for global power, none except China have shown any indications to whittle down
US global predominance. Even China seems to be comfortable with US power as long as it
keeps Japan in check. This Paper makes bold to assert that the 21st Century would be a Second American
Century despite China's challenge and the strategic distractions arising from the global
Islamic flash-points.
 No Impact 2NC
No decline in US economic power and no impact
Lieber 8 [Robert J., Prof of Government at Georgetown The Declinists Are Wrong Again
Perspectives Papers on Current Affairs, Perspectives 47 July 30, 2008,
http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/perspectives47.html]

the subprime mortgage crisis, investment bank turmoil, a yawning balance of

On the domestic front,

payments deficit, and the falling dollar lead to a warning that, We are competing and
losing in a global marketplace. And America has become an enfeebled superpower, according
to Fareed Zakaria, who adds that while the US will not be replaced in the foreseeable future, nevertheless, Just as the rest of the world is opening up, America is closing

down.The declinists central proposition holds that both the rise of other countries and an
increasing degree of counterbalancing are transforming the international system and
profoundly weakening the leading role of the United States in world affairs. The new declinism rests not only
on a global narrative, but it also makes an argument about fundamental domestic weaknesses. It points to the long-
term burdens of entitlement programs, which will face large unfunded liabilities. Deficits in
international trade and payments and the federal budget, a major credit crisis, collapse of the residential housing bubble and
economic turbulence add to the list of troubles. Another clearly overdue task concerns the need to reduce dependence on imported oil and the resultant
economic and security vulnerabilities. Americas infrastructure is aging and in need of repair and modernization. In addition, the effectiveness of government institutions
may be less than optimal, as evident in the chaotic response to Hurricane Katrina, ongoing problems at the Department of Homeland Security, cumbersome interaction

It is premature to write the epitaph

among intelligence agencies, and the need for more effective coordination of national security policy.

for American power and leadership. In contrast to these arguments and analyses, America
continues to maintain a position of relative predominance, and despite an increasing
diffusion of power, no single country has emerged as a plausible counterpart or peer competitor. Apart
from the long-term possibility of China, none is likely to do so. Similarly, without minimizing the impact of domestic problems,

it would be wise not to overstate the likelihood of fundamental economic decline. Current
challenges are ultimately manageable and are likely to prove less daunting than those that
afflicted the US economy in the mid- to late-1970s and early 1980s. It is worth reminding ourselves that the
overall size and dynamism of the economy remains unmatched. Consider that America
continues to lead on comparative measures of competitiveness, technology and innovation,
for example ranking first in information technology and second (after Finland) in overall
competitiveness. The US even ranks first in space competitiveness. Higher education and
science represent another huge asset. Americas major research universities are outstanding in their international stature and rankings,
occupying 17 of the top 20 places and 35 of the top 50. Noteworthy, 70 percent of the worlds Nobel Prize winners work in US institutions. Broad

demographic trends also favor the United States, whereas countries that are possible peer
competitors face much more adverse patterns of aging populations. This is not only true for Russia, Europe, and
Japan, but even China is affected as a result of its long-standing one child policy. Americas birthrate is consistently higher than in those countries and its population

Population patterns thus contribute to the long-term

continues to grow through natural increase as well as immigration.

persistence of American predominance. Militarily, no other country possesses anything like

the capacity of the United States to project power on a global basis. American military technology remains
unmatched, and even when foreign countries may achieve comparable quality in producing
an individual type of modern weapon, none come close to parity in the overall systems
applicable to land, sea or air warfare. While military spending is enormous in real terms, the defense budget amounts to approximately 4.2
percent of GDP. That contrasts with 6.6 percent at the height of the Reagan buildup and double digit percentages during the early and middle years of the Cold War. In
short, the costs of national defense do not by themselves pose an imminent danger of overstretch.
Health Advantage
 Status Quo Solves 1NC
The status quo solves theres no impact to the changes and stricter
regulations dont solve.
Julie Kelly 17, National Review Online contributor, food policy writer, 5-8-2017, "Trump
Administration Nibbles At Michelle Obamas School Lunch Mess," Federalist,
http://thefederalist.com/2017/05/08/trump-administration-nibbles-michelle-obamas-school-
lunch-mess/

The Trump administration is nibbling away at Michelle

Obamas school lunch program, a well-intentioned
but flawed attempt to make kids eat better at school and stem rising childhood obesity rates. Congress passed
the Healthy and Hunger-Free Kids Act in 2010, which set tight restrictions on dairy, salt, and sugar
content in school meals while pushing fresh fruits, vegetables, and whole grains.

In one of his first acts as President Trumps new secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue announced modest changes
on May 1 to give schools more flexibility in menu planning so they can serve nutritious and appealing meals and encourage student
participation in the meal programs.

Far from the major overhaul to the program that critics wanted and supporters feared, the U.S.
Department of Agriculture will delay future sodium limits, ease whole-grain requirements, and let
schools serve 1 percent flavored milk instead of the fat-free version: This announcement is the result of years
of feedback from students, school, and food service experts about the challenges they are facing, Perdue said in a statement. If
kids arent eating the food, and its ending up in the trash, they arent getting any nutrition.

The Schoolyard Wrath Michelle Obama Wrought

Since Mrs. Obamas signature policy went into effect, school districts have encountered a number of
problems, from budgets running in the red to garbage cans overflowing with discarded food. The rules
force students to take either a fruit or vegetable with each meal, and the produce is often tossed in the garbage.

Schools struggle to replace white flour with whole grains to make edible items like bagels, tortillas, and
grits. Restrictions on salt are so tough that there have been reports of teachers policing pickle intake and some students bringing in
contraband salt packets for lunch. Kids started posting pictures of their inedible lunches under the hashtag #thanksMichelleObama.

The School Nutrition Association, which supported the initial legislation but has since pushed for reform after seeing the fallout in
cafeterias across the country, lauded Perdues plan to loosen overly prescriptive
regulations that have resulted
in unintended consequences, including reduced student lunch participation, higher costs and
food waste.

There is scant evidence the law has achieved any measurable success , particularly in lowering childhood
obesity rates. According to one Centers for Disease Control survey, the obesity rate among high school students
has increased from 13 percent in 2011 to 13.9 percent in 2015, with higher spikes among some demographics. Other studies
show a slight uptick in fruit and vegetable consumption at some school districts, but whether that affects current or long-term
health is unclear.

We Dont Know Enough to Make National Nutrition Plans

The bigger problem is that the guidelines

are not rooted in science. There is no proof a diet low in sugar,
sodium, and fat is healthier for children with developing brains and bodies. In fact, the lunch
requirements mirror much of the same misguided dietary advice the federal government has given adults for more than three
decades.
Eliminating fat from our diets has not made American adults healthier or slimmer, and the same
goes for children. For example, Canadian researchers recently found children who drank whole milk had higher Vitamin D
intake and a lower body mass index than children who drank low-fat milk. Fat-free dairy products fail to satiate hungry appetites and
are usually loaded with other fillers like extra sugar and artificial thickeners. Allowing schools to now offer 1 percent milk instead of
skim doesnt do much in this direction, either.

Same for sodium. Right now, a high school lunch cant have more than roughly a two-third teaspoon of sodium, which might sound
generous but given the amount of naturally occurring sodium in everything from lunchmeat to salad dressing, its already a
challenge. The next target would have reduced that further, to less than half a teaspoon. So while delaying the next target is
laudable, there is no nutritional science that supports the current sodium limits. It leaves in place a needless regulation that will do
nothing to make kids healthier or less hungry.

We Cant Afford Middle-Class Welfare

The reforms also fail to address the school lunch programs rising costs over the past five years due to the
Community
Eligibility Provision, the part of Mrs. Obamas policy that allowed more students to qualify for free or
reduced-price meals, even those who dont need it. CEP allows entire school districts, rather than individual
households, to apply for taxpayer-funded breakfast and lunch.

For example, since 2011 all 400,000 students who attend Chicago Public Schools have received a fully taxpayer-sponsored breakfast
and lunch regardless of financial need. (CPS was in the pilot program before it went nationwide.) A bill introduced last year sought to
raise the threshold for districts to qualify for CEP, but it doesnt look like Congress has the appetite to move forward with that plan
any time soon.

A USDA spokeswoman told me she cant really speculate on any potential changes to the program. For now everything else is the
same. Instead of makingincremental, largely meaningless tweaks to the program, the
administration and Congress should go back to the cafeteria table and overhaul it completely.
Guidelines should be based on sound science and common sense, results-tested every few
years, and only students who really need the free meals should get them. Perdue and Congress need to put this
back on the chopping block.
 Status Quo Solves 2NC
Err neg---their authors exaggerate the impact of changes
Paul Crookston 17, Collegiate Network fellow at National Review, 5-3-2017, "Rolling Back
Michelle Obamas Rules to Make School Meals Great Again," National Review,
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/447315/michelle-obama-school-lunch-plan-rolled-
back-trump-administration

Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue

released a plan Monday to roll back the strict health standards for
school meals championed in the last administration by Michelle Obama. Requirements for reduced sodium and
mostly whole grains have been relaxed, and the title of the USDAs press release declared that the plan would Make
School Meals Great Again.

Of course, no
change has been made to fruit and vegetable requirements, and the allowances for
items such as salt and milk havent changed much. One percent milk is now allowed, rather than just skim, and
the cap on salt for high schoolers moved up from 1,080 milligrams to 1,420. And thankfully for schools in the South, rescinding the
requirement for whole grains allows them to have real grits again.

The nutritional changes are much less dramatic than is the reaction to them. On Washington Posts
Wonkblog, Perdue is charged with freez[ing] Michelle Obamas plan to fight childhood obesity, in a
story describing school-lunch policing as one of former first lady Michelle Obamas signature accomplishments. Around thirty
parents with nothing better to do protested Perdues announcement at Catoctin Elementary School in Leesburg, Va, chanting
healthy kids, healthy food, and one yelled Give a damn! as a smiling Perdue left in an SUV.

Despite their best efforts, the wonk bloggers at the Post cant
help but make the former first ladys food
guidelines sound terrible. They describe replacing cafeteria staples such as conventional pizza with
salt-reduced, whole-grain versions and students bringing in contraband salt shakers. And, in what
the Post calls a second blow to the Obama administrations nutritional legacy, the FDA is also looking to rewrite the Obamacare
nutrition-labeling rules that were proving
 Aff Doesnt Help Obesity Rates 1NC
The aff doesnt solve obesity any reductions in obesity rates are solely a
correlation.
Grills, PhD in Public Policy, 2015
Derek, Dissertation, The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act and High School Obesity
http://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2380&context=dissertations

United States high school student obesity rates have doubled in the past 30 years to 13%,
threatening the health of millions of adolescents . To mitigate the epidemic, Congress passed the Healthy,
Hunger-Free Kids Act (HHFKA) in 2010, which mandated significant changes to school nutrition and physical education. From a public policy perspective,
the HHFKA changed school nutrition and exercise policy to affect obesity rates by changing intake and energy expenditure at school, though no study using national-level data

the purpose of the study was to examine whether HHFKA policy compliance
examined this relationship. As such,

had a statistically significant effect on high school obesity rates. The theoretical framework for this study was the energy imbalance
theory (EIT), as developed by James Hill, Holly Wyatt, and John Peters. The research questions focused on the relationship of HHFKA nutrition changes and childhood obesity

The study used Pearson's Product-moment correlation to test for a simple correlation
rates.

between Compliance Scores and High School obesity rates. Findings revealed no statistically
significant correlation between state high school student obesity rates and HHFKA compliance
scores . Future research is needed to validate the findings after more time has passed with the HHFKA mandates in effect. The implications for social
change include informing the debate over the efficacy of implementing the HHFKA as currently
written to mitigate childhood obesity.
 Aff Doesnt Help Obesity Rates 2NC
The aff fails its a one size fits all solution that doesnt address why different
kids are obese and schools just opt out.
Grills, PhD in Public Policy, 2015
Derek, Dissertation, The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act and High School Obesity
http://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2380&context=dissertations
High school obesity rates pose a serious threat to the health and well-being of Americas children. Obesity is a complex phenomenon and the causes for its tripling in the past 30

years are poorly understood. The HHFKA was passed before completion of any large-scale, longitudinal
studies on the efficacy of school nutrition policy to affect high school obesity. While there are significant
limitations to this study, the absence of a significant improvement in high school obesity rates between

2007 and 2012 for states with at least some compliance suggests the limitations of using federal
policy affect high school obesity rates . The fact that a significant number of school boards have
affirmatively opted-out of the HHFKA mandates highlights the risks of using a one-sizefit all
federal approach to a complex phenomenon . Recent pronouncements from the Obama administration signal changes to the HHFKA in
The absence of scientific evidence that the HHFKA has any effect on childhood
response to those criticisms.

obesity rates leaves administrators without a basis for deciding which, if any, regulations
should be 80 kept or discarded . Sweeping federal changes to something as critical as childrens food should be done based on large-scale, longitudinal
studies.

And obesity isnt solely caused by school lunches the aff cant solve
Lamagna, Market Watch Contributor, 2015
Maria, 5 reasons Americans are obese that have nothing to do with food 11/15
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-reasons-americans-are-obese-that-have-nothing-to-do-
with-food-2015-11-13

Obesity in the U.S. isnt going away anytime soon, according to new data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Nearly 40% of
adults and more than 17% of youth in the U.S. were obese between 2013 and 2014; 10 years before, about 32% of adults and 17% of youth (the same as last year) were obese. Although the new data didn't
represent a statistically significant increase from the last time the survey was conducted, from 2011 to 2012, it shows obesity remains prevalent among both adults and children, despite recent efforts to fight the
issue. I was surprised. I was not expecting this, said Bartolome Burguera, an endocrinologist at Cleveland Clinics Endocrinology and Metabolism Institute. Its a very important wake-up call. The Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention define obesity in terms of body-mass index (BMI). Those with a BMI of 30 or higher are considered obese. Experts said the surveys results indicate that many factors are
contributing to Americans obesity, and they dont all have to do with food. In fact, there have been some positive signs that Americans are changing the way they eat. American adults and children slightly
decreased the amount of calories they were consuming on a daily basis from 2003 through 2004 to 2009 through 2010, according to separate research from Shu Wen Ng, Meghan M. Slining and Barry M. Popkin.
The researchers concluded that these changes in energy intake were independent from economic conditions or food prices, and public health efforts were likely to have helped. Soda consumption in the U.S. has

A newer study from Cornell also found that consuming specific high-calorie or high-
also dropped dramatically.

sugar foods isnt related to BMI in 95% of the population; in fact, morbidly obese people actually
eat fewer sweet and salty snacks than average-weight individuals , though they do eat more french fries. They concluded that
overall diet, including calories from grains, oils and dairy fats, combined with physical exercise and portion control, mattered much more than targeting specific foods. (And, to be clear, that doesnt mean gorging
on junk food wont make you overweight.) Still, despite recent findings, there is still work to be done about the foods Americans eat. Larger portion sizes for adults and children, plus the amount of sugar in
Americans diets, remain a concern, especially due to the prevalence of savory items that arent well-known for their sugar content, including such items as fast-food cheeseburgers and certain salad dressings, said

Beyond food, there are several other factors at play. Here

Christopher Ochner, a weight loss and nutrition expert at Mount Sinai Hospital.

are 5: 1. Exercise Americans are much more sedentary than in the past, Burguera said; a lot of people go
an entire day without burning many calories. You dont even have to get up to go to a meeting. You just have a meeting through the Internet, Burguera said.
Before you get home, you stop at a drive-through restaurant, then you continue to answer emails from your bed. In fact, less than half of adults met federal guidelines for physical activity in 2014, with white

Better transportation options also mean Americans walk less than

adults slightly outperforming those who are black and Hispanic.

in the past, said Holly Lofton, the director of the weight management program at NYUs Langone Center. And more children play sedentary games. In
the past they would be playing things like dodgeball, and theyre playing on an iPad now, she said. Still, simply increasing exercise isnt a cure-all, Ochner said, since those who exercise often then compensate by
consuming extra calories. 2. Income Americans in some lower-income demographics struggle more with obesity because consistently eating healthy and fresh foods can be more expensive than fast food or
packaged foods, Ochner said. Living far from locations that sell produce and other healthier foods in areas known as food deserts also contributes, Lofton said. More than 23 million Americans live in these

areas, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Plus, cooking a meal takes time. When you have a very busy schedule, and when you have other important
social and financial problems, eating right probably becomes a secondary point, Burguera said. Those with lower incomes also may have less
information about healthy eating, as well as less access to care for issues related to being overweight. People who dont have health insurance often cant afford to see a
medical weight-loss specialist, Lofton said. They may also be unable to consistently exercise, whether thats for lack of money for a gym membership, or lack of time or a safe outdoor space. 3. Stress

Longer work hours and greater competition, both at work and academically, contribute to stress
and consequently, weight gain. When people experience stress, the body feels a flight-or-fight
response; this makes the body more hungry, so it will have the energy to fight off the attack, and
it could lead to the body storing more fat , Lofton said. Plus, many people turn to food as a source of
comfort when they feel stressed or unhappy , Burguera said. Americans stress levels are actually trending downward, with adults ranking their mean stress
levels at 4.9 on a 10-point scale in 2014, down from 6.2 in 2007, according to the American Psychological Associations Stress in America survey. But this is still higher than what they said they believe to be a

healthy amount of stress. And those at lower income levels, with extreme stress about money, were more likely to use food as a source of comfort than those at higher incomes. 4. Sleep
deprivation Lack of sleep is also linked to weight gain. Because of spending later hours using
devices like smartphones and tablets that disrupt the sleep cycle, plus increased stress, sleep
has become a factor in the fight against obesity. Not getting enough sleep affects hormone
levels that increase hunger , Burguera added, and those who are lacking in quality sleep may also be less
likely to have the energy to exercise. In the U.S., 40% of adults sleep less than seven hours a night, according to a Gallup poll in 2013. That isnt a decrease from the
amount of sleep they reported getting over the last 10 years, but it is a full hour less of sleep per night than Americans got in the 1940s. 5. Other illnesses Illnesses such as

depression can cause increased appetite for some people, causing weight gain (although as Ochner noted,
depression can actually cause lack of appetite for others). Some people who take medications, including those prescribed for

ailments including depression and nerve pain, or even hormones for in-vitro fertilization, may
also experience weight gain, Lofton said. Because the reasons for gaining weight are complex,
and problems in nutrition are just beginning to be better understood, a noticeable reduction in
obesity could take 10 years or more, Lofton and Ochner said.

And kids would just eat more at home eliminating any obesity related benefit
Gunderson, Ag Professor at the University of Illinois, 2014
Craig, The Potentially Negative Consequences Associated with the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids
Act 8/24 http://policymatters.illinois.edu/the-potentially-negative-consequences-associated-
with-the-healthy-hunger-free-kids-act/
On the surface, this restructuring of the NSLP seems like a good idea. After all, who is against healthier meals? However, concerns exist regarding what might happen to childhood hunger in the United States due
to these new rules. The following are three probable consequences of the policy changes for consideration. First, schools are faced with higher expenses due to these requirements and declines in participation
among students and, hence, fewer meals sold. In response, some schools have chosen to opt out of the NSLP so they do not need to abide by the new rules. In the process of doing so, NSLP-eligible children who

children may be less likely to eat

attend these schools will no longer have access to free or reduced-price meals, putting them at heightened risk of food insecurity. Second,

what is served through the revised guidelines and, hence, a decline in the receipt of school
meals. This is consistent with a study that showed a marked decline in milk consumption after
flavored milk was removed from some school meal programs due to the perceived negative
characteristics of flavored milk and, as a consequence, the health benefits associated with milk
consumption were not realized. Something similar is likely to occur when healthier meals
are introduced. Third, for many students, the main meal they eat might be lunch due to limited food availability at home. Children with sufficient food at home can make up for the reductions in
calories of the new school lunches but this is not an option for many low-income children. As a consequence, these children will be more likely to be food insecure and/or put greater demands on their familys

However, a
already limited food budget. There are some in the United States who may be willing to accept more hunger among children if this were paired with a decline in childhood obesity.

decline in obesity may not occur due to these healthier meals for two main reasons. First,
there is evidence that persons will compensate for the loss of calories in one meal with
additional calories in other meals . So, for children in households with sufficient resources, the
reduction in calories in school meals may be replaced with calories in other meals. Second, as noted
above, many schools have reported declines in participation in the NSLP. If these children are being

given even healthier meals through sack lunches or through consumption of foods at local retail
food outlets, this may then mean these children would not be at higher risk of obesity. But, if their sack lunches or alternative
outside-school meal options are not healthier, they could be at higher risk of obesity.
 No Disease Impact 1NC
Infectious diseases dont cause extinction
Owen Cotton-Barratt 17, et al, PhD in Pure Mathematics, Oxford, Lecturer in Mathematics at
Oxford, Research Associate at the Future of Humanity Institute, 2/3/2017, Existential Risk:
Diplomacy and Governance, https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Existential-Risks-
2017-01-23.pdf
For most of human history, natural pandemics have posed the greatest risk of mass global fatalities.37 However, there are some
reasons to believe that natural pandemics are very unlikely to cause human extinction . Analysis of the
International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list database has shown that of the 833 recorded plant and
animal species extinctions known to have occurred since 1500, less than 4% (31 species) were ascribed
to infectious disease.38 None of the mammals and amphibians on this list were globally dispersed, and
other factors aside from infectious disease also contributed to their extinction. It therefore seems that our
own species, which is very numerous , globally dispersed , and capable of a rational response to
problems , is very unlikely to be killed off by a natural pandemic.

One underlying explanation for this is that highly lethal pathogens can kill their hosts before they have a chance
to spread, so there is a selective pressure for pathogens not to be highly lethal . Therefore, pathogens are
likely to co-evolve with their hosts rather than kill all possible hosts.39
 No Disease Impact 2NC
No pandemics---empirically denied
Wendy Orent 15, anthropologist and freelance science writer whose work has appeared in The
Washington Post, The LA Times, The New Republic, Discover, and The American Prospect,
instructor in science journalism @ Emory, Ignore predictions of lethal pandemics and pay
attention to what really matters, LA Times, 1/3/15, http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-
oe-orent-pandemic-hysteria-20150104-story.html

Prophets of doom have been telling us for decades that a deadly new pandemic of bird flu, of SARS or MERS
coronavirus, and now of Ebola is on its way. Why are we still listening? If you look back at the furor raised at many distinguished publications Nature,
Science, Scientific American, National Geographic back in, say, 2005, about a potential bird flu (H5N1) pandemic, you wonder what planet they were on. Nature ran a special

section titled Avian flu: Are we ready? that began, ominously, with the words Trouble is brewing in the East and went on to present a
mock aftermath report detailing catastrophic civil breakdown. Robert Webster, a famous influenza virologist, told ABC News in 2006 that society just can't accept
the idea that 50% of the population could die. And I think we have to face that possibility. Public health expert Michael T. Osterholm of the University of Minnesota, at a meeting in Washington of scientists
brought together by the Institute of Medicine, warned in 2005 that a post-pandemic commission, like the post-9/11 commission, could hold many scientists accountable to that commission for what we did or
didn't do to prevent a pandemic. He also predicted that we could be facing three years of a given hell as the world struggled to right itself after the deadly pandemic. And Laurie Garrett, author of what must be
the urtext for pandemic predictions, her 1994 book The Coming Plague, intoned in Foreign Affairs that in short, doom may loom. Although she followed that with But note the may, the article went on to

hysteria still goes on: Whether it's over the MERS coronavirus, a
paint a terrifying picture of the avian flu threat nonetheless. And such

whole alphabet of chicken flu viruses, a real but not very deadly influenza pandemic in 2009, or a kerfuffle like the one in

2012 over a scientist-crafted ferret flu that also was supposed to be a pandemic threat. Along the way,
virologist Nathan Wolfe published The Viral Storm: the Dawn of a New Pandemic Age, and David Quammen warned in his gripping Spillover that

some new animal plague could arise from the jungle and sweep across the world. And now there's Ebola. Osterholm, in a widely read
op-ed in the New York Times in September, wrote about the possibility that scientists were afraid to mention publicly the danger they discuss privately: that Ebola could mutate to become transmissible through
the air. The Ebola epidemic in West Africa has the potential to alter history as much as any plague has ever done, he wrote. And Garrett wrote in Foreign Policy, Attention, World: You just don't get it. She
went on to say, Wake up, fools, because we should be more frightened of a potential scenario like the one in the movie Contagion, in which a lethal, fictitious pandemic scours the world, nearly destroying
civilization. But there were fewer takers this time. Osterholm's claims about Ebola going airborne were discounted by serious scientists, and Garrett seemingly retracted her earlier hysteria about Ebola by claiming

that, after all, evolution made such spread unlikely. The scientific world has changed since 2005. Now, most scientists
understand that there are significant physical and evolutionary barriers to a blood- and fluid-
borne virus developing airborne transmission , as Garrett has acknowledged. Though Ebola virus has been detected in human alveolar cells, as Vincent
Racaniello, virologist at Columbia University, explained to me, that doesn't mean it can replicate in the airways enough to allow transmission. Maybe the virus can get in, but can't get out. Like a roach motel,
wrote Racaniello in an email. H5N1, we understand now, never went airborne because it attached only to cell receptors located deep in human lungs, and could not, therefore, be coughed or sneezed out. SARS, or
severe acute respiratory syndrome, caused local outbreaks after multiple introductions via air travel but spread only sluggishly and mostly in hospitals. Breaking its chains of transmission ended the outbreak

globally. There probably will always be significant barriers preventing the easy adaptation of an
animal disease to the human species. Furthermore, Racaniello insists that there are no recorded instances of
viruses that have adapted to humans, changing the way they are spread. So we need to stop
listening to the doomsayers, and we need to do it now. Predictions of lethal pandemics have
since the swine flu fiasco of 1976, when President Ford vowed to vaccinate every man, woman and child in the United States always been
wrong. Fear-mongering wastes our time and our emotions and diverts resources from where
they should be directed in the case of Ebola, to the ongoing tragedy in West Africa. Americans have all but forgotten about Ebola now, because most people realize it isn't coming to
a school or a shopping mall near you. But Sierra Leoneans and Liberians go on dying.

No disease extinction --- empirics and isolated populations

Nick Beckstead 14, Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute, citing Peter Doherty,
recipient of the 1996 Nobel Prize for Medicine, PhD in Immunology from the University of
Edinburgh, Michael F. Tamer Chair of Biomedical Research at St. Jude Childrens Research
Hospital, How much could refuges help us recover from a global catastrophe? in Futures,
published online 18 Nov 2014, Science Direct
 While there is little published work on human
That leaves pandemics and cobalt bombs, which will get a longer discussion.

extinction risk from pandemics, it seems that it would be extremely challenging for any
pandemic whether natural or manmadeto leave the people in a specially constructed refuge as
the sole survivors . In his introductory book on pandemics (Doherty, 2013, p. 197) argues: No pandemic is likely to wipe
out the human species. Even without the protection provided by modern science, we survived
smallpox, TB, and the plagues of recorded history. Way back when human numbers were very
small, infections may have been responsible for some of the genetic bottlenecks inferred from evolutionary
analysis, but there is no formal proof of this. Though some authors have vividly described worst-case
scenarios for engineered pandemics (e.g. Rees, 2003 and Posner, 2004; and Myhrvold, 2013), it would take a special effort to infect
people in highly isolated locations, especially the 100+ largely uncontacted peoples who
prefer to be left alone. This is not to say it would be impossible. A madman intent on annihilating all human life could use cropduster-style delivery systems,
flying over isolated peoples and infecting them. Or perhaps a pandemic could be engineered to be delivered through animal or environmental vectors that would reach all of
these people.
 No Bioterror Impact 1NC
The worst case scenario happened no extinction
Dove, Microbiology PhD, 2012
(Alan, Whos Afraid of the Big, Bad Bioterrorist?, 1-24,
http://alandove.com/content/2012/01/whos-afraid-of-the-big-bad-bioterrorist/, ldg)

The second problem is much more serious. Eliminating the toxins, were left with a list of infectious
bacteria and viruses. With a single
exception, these organisms are probably near-useless as weapons, and history proves it. There have been at least three
well-documented military-style deployments of infectious agents from the list, plus one deployment of an agent thats not on the list. Im focusing
entirely on the modern era, by the way. There are historical reports of armies catapulting plague-ridden corpses over city walls and conquistadors
trying to inoculate blankets with Variola (smallpox), but its not clear those attacks were effective. Those diseases tended to spread like, well, plagues,
so theres no telling whether the targets really caught the diseases from the bodies and blankets, or simply picked them up through casual contact with
their enemies. Of the four
modern biowarfare incidents, two have been fatal. The first was the 1979
Sverdlovsk anthrax incident, which killed an estimated 100 people. In that case, a Soviet-built biological weapons lab
accidentally released a large plume of weaponized Bacillus anthracis (anthrax) over a major city. Soviet authorities tried to blame the resulting fatalities
on bad meat, but in the 1990s Western investigators were finally able to piece together the real story. The second fatal incident also
involved anthrax from a government-run lab: the 2001 Amerithrax attacks. That time, a rogue employee (or perhaps
employees) of the governments main bioweapons lab sent weaponized, powdered anthrax through the US postal service. Five people died.

That gives us a grand total of around 105 deaths, entirely from agents that were grown and weaponized
in officially-sanctioned and funded bioweapons research labs. Remember that. Terrorist groups have
also deployed biological weapons twice, and these cases are very instructive. The first was the 1984 Rajneeshee bioterror

attack, in which members of a cult in Oregon inoculated restaurant salad bars with Salmonella bacteria (an agent

thats not on the select list). 751 people got sick, but nobody died. Public health authorities handled it as

a conventional foodborne Salmonella outbreak, identified the sources and contained them. Nobody even would have known
it was a deliberate attack if a member of the cult hadnt come forward afterward with a confession. Lesson: our existing public health

infrastructure was entirely adequate to respond to a major bioterrorist attack. The second
genuine bioterrorist attack took place in 1993. Members of the Aum Shinrikyo cult successfully
isolated and grew a large stock of anthrax bacteria, then sprayed it as an aerosol from the roof of a building in

downtown Tokyo. The cult was well-financed, and had many highly educated members, so this
release over the worlds largest city really represented a worst-case scenario . Nobody got sick
or died. From the cults perspective, it was a complete and utter failure. Again, the only reason we even found out about it was a post-hoc confession.
Aum members later demonstrated their lab skills by producing Sarin nerve gas, with far deadlier results. Lesson: one of the top select

agents is extremely hard to grow and deploy even for relatively skilled non-state groups. Its a
really crappy bioterrorist weapon. Taken together, these events point to an uncomfortable but inevitable conclusion: our
biodefense industry is a far greater threat to us than any actual bioterrorists.
 No Bioterror Impact 2NC
No motive or means for bioterrorism
Hoffman, Georgetown security studies director, 2014
(Bruce, Low-Tech Terrorism, April, nationalinterest.org/print/article/low-tech-terrorism-9935)

Fortunately, the
reports most breathless prediction concerning the likelihood of terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) has not come to pass. But this is not for want of terrorists trying to obtain such capabilities. Indeed, prior to the October 2001
U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan, Al Qaeda had embarked upon an ambitious quest to acquire and develop an array of such weapons that, had it been
successful, would have altered to an unimaginable extent our most basic conceptions about national security and rendered moot debates over whether
terrorism posed a potentially existential threat. But just
how effective have terrorist efforts to acquire and use
weapons of mass destruction actually been? The September 11, 2001, attacks were widely noted for
their reliance on relatively low-tech weaponrythe conversion, in effect, of airplanes into missiles by using raw physical
muscle and box cutters to hijack them. Since then, efforts to gain access to WMD have been
unceasing. But examining those efforts results in some surprising conclusions. While there is no cause for
complacency, they do suggest that terrorists face some inherent constraints that will be difficult for

them to overcome. It is easier to proclaim the threat of mass terror than to perpetrate it. THE
TERRORIST ATTACKS attacks on September 11 completely recast global perceptions of threat and vulnerability. Long-
standing assumptions that terrorists were more interested in publicity than in killing were dramatically swept aside in the rising crescendo of death and
destruction. The butchers bill that morning was without parallel in the annals of modern terrorism. Throughout the entirety of the twentieth century
no more than fourteen terrorist incidents had killed more than a hundred people, and until September 11 no terrorist operation had ever killed more
than five hundred people in a single attack. Viewed from another perspective, more than twice as many Americans perished within those excruciating
102 minutes than had been killed by terrorists since 1968the year widely accepted as marking the advent of modern, international terrorism. So
massive and consequential a terrorist onslaught naturally gave rise to fears that a profound threshold in terrorist constraint and lethality had been
crossed. Renewed fears and concerns were in turn generated that terrorists would now embrace an array of deadly nonconventional weapons in order
to inflict even greater levels of death and destruction than had occurred that day. Attention focused specifically on terrorist
use of WMD, and the so-called Cheney Doctrine emerged to shape Americas national-security strategy. The doctrine derived
from former vice president Dick Cheneys reported statement that if theres a one percent chance that Pakistani scientists are helping Al Qaeda build
or develop a nuclear weapon, we have to treat it as a certainty in terms of our response. What
the one percent doctrine
meant in practice, according to one observer, was that even if theres just a one percent chance of the
unimaginable coming due, act as if its a certainty. Countering the threat of nonconventional-weapons proliferationwhether by
rogue states arrayed in an axis of evil or by terrorists who might acquire such weapons from those same states or otherwise develop them on their
ownthus became one of the central pillars of the Bush administrations time in office. In the case of Al
Qaeda, at least, these fears were more
than amply justified. That groups interest in acquiring a nuclear weapon reportedly commenced as long ago as

1992a mere four years after its creation. An attempt by an Al Qaeda agent to purchase uranium from South Africa was made either late the
following year or early in 1994 without success. Osama bin Ladens efforts to obtain nuclear material nonetheless continued, as evidenced by the arrest
in Germany in 1998 of a trusted senior aide named Mamdouh Mahmud Salim, who was attempting to purchase enriched uranium. And that same year,
the Al Qaeda leader issued a proclamation in the name of the International Islamic Front for Fighting the Jews and Crusaders. Titled The Nuclear
Bomb of Islam, the proclamation declared that it is the duty of Muslims to prepare as much force as possible to terrorize the enemies of God. When
asked several months later by a Pakistani journalist whether Al Qaeda was in a position to develop chemical weapons and try to purchase nuclear
material for weapons, bin Laden replied: I would say that acquiring weapons for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty. Bin Ladens continued
interest in nuclear weaponry was also on display at the time of the September 11 attacks. Two Pakistani nuclear scientists named Sultan Bashiruddin
Mahmood and Abdul Majeed spent three days that August at a secret Al Qaeda facility outside Kabul. Although their discussions with bin Laden, his
deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri and other senior Al Qaeda officials also focused on the development and employment of chemical and biological weapons,
Mahmoodthe former director for nuclear power at Pakistans Atomic Energy Commissionclaimed that bin Ladens foremost interest was in
developing a nuclear weapon. The
movements efforts in the biological-warfare realm, however, were far more
advanced and appear to have begun in earnest with a memo written by al-Zawahiri on April 15, 1999, to Muhammad Atef, then
deputy commander of Al Qaedas military committee. Citing articles published in Science, the Journal of Immunology and the New England Journal of
Medicine, as well as information gleaned from authoritative books such as Tomorrows Weapons, Peace or Pestilence and Chemical Warfare, al-
Zawahiri outlined in detail his thoughts on the priority to be given to developing a biological-weapons capability. One of the specialists recruited for this
purpose was a U.S.-trained Malaysian microbiologist named Yazid Sufaat. A former captain in the Malaysian army, Sufaat graduated from the California
State University in 1987 with a degree in biological sciences. He later joined Al Gamaa al-Islamiyya (the Islamic Group), an Al Qaeda affiliate operating
in Southeast Asia, and worked closely with its military operations chief, Riduan Isamuddin, better known as Hambali, and with Hambalis own Al Qaeda
handler, Khalid Sheikh Mohammedthe infamous KSM, architect of the September 11 attacks. In January 2000, Sufaat played host to two of the 9/11
hijackers, Khalid al-Midhar and Nawaf Alhazmi, who stayed in his Kuala Lumpur condominium. Later that year, Zacarias Moussaoui, the alleged
twentieth hijacker, who was sentenced in 2006 to life imprisonment by a federal district court in Alexandria, Virginia, also stayed with Sufaat. Under
KSMs direction, Hambali and Sufaat set up shop at an Al Qaeda camp in Kandahar, Afghanistan, where their efforts focused on the weaponization of
anthrax. Although the two made some progress, biowarfare experts believe that on the eve of September 11 Al Qaeda was still at least two to three
years away from producing a sufficient quantity of anthrax to use as a weapon. Meanwhile, a
separate team of Al Qaeda
operatives was engaged in a parallel research-and-development project to produce ricin and chemical-warfare agents at the
movements Derunta camp, near the eastern Afghan city of Jalalabad. As one senior U.S. intelligence officer who prefers to remain anonymous
explained, Al Qaedas WMD efforts werent part of a single program but rather multiple compartmentalized projects involving multiple scientists in
multiple locations. The Derunta facility reportedly included laboratories and a school that trained handpicked terrorists in the use of chemical and
biological weapons. Among this select group was Kamal Bourgass, an Algerian Al Qaeda operative who was convicted in British courts in 2004 and 2005
for the murder of a British police officer and of conspiracy to commit a public nuisance by the use of poisons or explosives. The schools director was
an Egyptian named Midhat Mursibetter known by his Al Qaeda nom de guerre, Abu Kebaband among its instructors were a Pakistani microbiologist
and Sufaat. When U.S. military forces overran the camp in 2001, evidence of the progress achieved in developing chemical weapons as diverse as
hydrogen cyanide, chlorine and phosgene was discovered. Mursi himself was killed in 2008 by a missile fired from a U.S. Predator drone. Mursis death
dealt another significant blow to Al Qaedas efforts to develop nonconventional weaponsbut it did not end them. In fact, as the aforementioned
senior U.S. intelligence officer recently commented, Al Qaedas ongoing procurement efforts have been well-established for awhile now . . . They
havent been highlighted in the U.S. media, but that isnt the same as it not happening. In 2010, for instance, credible intelligence surfaced that Al
Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsulawidely considered the movements most dangerous and capable affiliatewas deeply involved in the development of
ricin, a bioweapon made from castor beans that the FBI has termed the third most toxic substance known, behind only plutonium and botulism. Then,
in May 2013, Turkish authorities seized two kilograms of sarin nerve gasthe same weapon used in the 1995 attack on the Tokyo subway systemand
arrested twelve men linked to Al Qaedas Syrian affiliate, Al Nusra Front. Days later, another set of sarin-related arrests was made in Iraq of Al Qaeda
operatives based in that country who were separately overseeing the production of sarin and mustard blistering agents at two or more locations.
Finally, Israel admitted in November 2013 that for the past three years it had been holding a senior Al Qaeda operative whose expertise was in
biological warfare. The revelations over his alleged biological weapons links, one account noted of the operatives detention, come amid concerns
that Al Qaeda affiliates in Syria are attempting to procure bioweaponsand may already have done so. Indeed, Syrias ongoing civil war and the
prominent position of two key Al Qaeda affiliatesAl Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levantalong with other sympathetic jihadi
entities in that epic struggle, coupled with the potential access afforded to Bashar al-Assads chemical-weapons stockpiles, suggest that we have likely
not heard the last of Al Qaedas ambitions to obtain nerve agents, poison gas and other harmful toxins for use as mass-casualty weapons.
NONETHELESS, A fundamental paradox appears to exist so far as terrorist capabilities involving
chemical, biological and nuclear weapons are concerned. As mesmerizingly attractive as these
nonconventional weapons remain to Al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations, they have also mostly proven frustratingly

disappointing to whoever has tried to use them. Despite the extensive use of poison gas during
World War I, for instance, this weapon accounted for only 5 percent of all casualties in that conflict.
Reportedly, it required some sixty pounds of mustard gas to produce even a single casualty. Even in more recent

times, chemical weapons claimed the lives of less than 1 percent (five thousand) of the six hundred

thousand Iranians who died in the Iran-Iraq war. The Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo succeeded in killing
no more than thirteen people in its attack on the Tokyo underground in 1995. And, five years earlier, no fatalities
resulted from a Tamil Tigers assault on a Sri Lankan armed forces base in East Kiran that employed
chlorine gas. In fact, the wind changed and blew the gas back into the Tigers lines, thus aborting the attack. Biological weapons
have proven similarly difficult to deploy effectively. Before and during World War II, the Imperial Japanese Army carried out
nearly a dozen attacks using a variety of germ agentsincluding cholera, dysentery, bubonic plague, anthrax and paratyphoid, disseminated through
both air and wateragainst Chinese forces. Not once did these weapons decisively affect the outcome of a battle. And, in the 1942 assault on
Chekiang, ten thousand Japanese soldiers themselves became ill, and nearly two thousand died, from exposure to these agents. The Japanese
programs principal defect, a problem to all efforts so far, the American terrorism expert David Rapoport concluded, was an ineffective delivery
system. The challenges inherent in using germs as weapons are borne out by the research conducted for more than a decade
by Seth Carus, a researcher at the National Defense University. Carus has assembled perhaps the
most comprehensive database of
the use of biological agents by a wide variety of adversaries, including terrorists, government operatives, ordinary criminals and the
mentally unstable. His exhaustive research reveals that no more than a total of ten people were killed and less

than a thousand were made ill as a result of about two hundred incidents of bioterrorism or biocrime.
Most of which, moreover, entailed the individual poisoning of specific people rather than widespread,
indiscriminate attacks. The formidable challenges of obtaining the material needed to construct a
nuclear bomb, along with the fabrication and dissemination difficulties involving the use of noxious gases and
biological agents, perhaps account for the operational conservatism long observed in terrorist
tactics and weaponry. As politically radical or religiously fanatical as terrorists may be, they nonetheless to date
have overwhelmingly seemed to prefer the tactical assurance of the comparatively modest effects achieved by the
conventional weapons with which they are familiar, as opposed to the risk of failure inherent in
the use of more exotic means of death and destruction. Terrorists, as Brian Jenkins famously observed in 1985, thus continue to
appear to be more imitative than innovative. Accordingly, what innovation does occur tends to take place in the realm of the clever adaptation or
modification of existing tacticssuch as turning hijacked passenger airliners into cruise missilesor in the means and methods used to fabricate and
detonate explosive devices, rather than in the use of some new or dramatically novel weapon. THE TERRORISTS
have thus functioned
mostlyin a technological vacuum : either aloof or averse to the profound changes that have
fundamentally altered the nature of modern warfare. Whereas technological progress has produced successively more complex, lethally
effective and destructively accurate weapons systems that are deployed from a variety of air, land, seaand spaceplatforms, terrorists continue to
rely, as they have for more than a century, on the same two basic weapons systems: the gun and the bomb. Admittedly, the guns used by terrorists
today have larger ammunition capacities and more rapid rates of fire than the simple revolver the Russian revolutionary Vera Zasulich used in 1878 to
assassinate the governor-general of St. Petersburg. Similarly, bombs today require smaller amounts of explosives that are exponentially more powerful
and more easily concealed than the sticks of TNT with which the Fenian dynamiters terrorized London more than a century ago. But the fact remains
that the vast majority of terrorist incidents continue to utilize the same two attack modes.
Food Insecurity
 Status Quo Solves 1NC
Food insecurity is declining now due to changes in home life
Coleman-Jensen, USDA, Economic Research Service, 2016
Alisha, Food Insecurity Among Children Declined to Pre-Recession Levels in 2015 September,
https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2016/november/food-insecurity-among-children-
declined-to-pre-recession-levels-in-2015/

The year 2015 marked the most significant annual improvement in food security since the
Great Recession ended in 2009. The share of U.S. households that were food insecurethose
that had difficulty at some time during the year providing enough food for all their members
due to a lack of resourcesfell from 14.0 percent in 2014 to 12.7 percent in 2015. Declines in
food insecurity were even larger for the Nations children. In 2015, 16.6 percent of households
with children were food insecure, down from 19.2 percent in 2014, meaning that 2.2 million
fewer children in 2015 lived in households that had trouble putting adequate food on the
table for all their members.
 Status Quo Solves 2NC
The Status quo solves the impact Trumps changes dont do enough to alter
the nutritional makeup of school lunches
Scutti, CNN Contributor, 5/2/2017
Susan, USDA shifts Obama-era school lunch guidelines
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/02/health/school-lunch-changes/

Schwartz believes the impact on an individual child's diet will be small and amount to a slightly
higher intake of saturated fat due to the higher fat content in flavored milk. "But it's not a big
jump. It's pretty small," she said. With regard to whole grains and sodium, she believes any
gains made in the past will hold with no further improvements made. Rules to make school
lunches healthier are working , study finds "If this really helps, you know, food service directors have
more flexibility and stay in the program and continue working towards improving the quality of
the food they're serving, then that's OK with me," Schwartz said. Dr. Tanya Altmann, a California pediatrician and spokeswoman for
the American Academy of Pediatrics, said children get a third to half of their daily calories at school. "So school lunch programs are critical for helping a child reach
their nutrient goals throughout the day," she wrote in an email. " I'm fine with 1-percent (fat), flavored milk since all milk has important protein, calcium and (vitamin) D that growing kids need."

When it comes to loosening standards that regulate salt, which "has no nutrition benefit and can contribute to unhealthy diet as a whole," and those regulating grains, Altmann is a little
less "fine." "We already know that kids don't eat enough whole grains," she said. "Whole grains are important for growth and development, and I think that all of the grains kids eat should be whole grains
whenever possible." A new USDA report on the nutritional quality, cost and acceptability of school meals as well as student diets will become available by 2018. "It will be important to assess how much difference

these changes make," Schwartz said. " It could have been a whole lot worse from a nutrition standpoint ."

And new regulations solve lunch shaming

Taketa, Online News Contributor, 5/15/2017
Kristen, Schools forced to address 'lunch shaming'
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/education/schools-forced-to-address-lunch-
shaming/article_fe15ac31-23b5-54bd-af82-e666477d7349.html

But now schools are facing a federal deadline to take action against lunch shaming . By July 1, all
schools participating in the federal meals programs which include more than 100,000 public
and private schools are required by the USDA to have written policies to inform parents of
procedures regarding meal debt. Schools must also clearly communicate those policies to all
parents and school staff. Many schools and school districts, including several in the St. Louis area, lack any
kind of written student meal debt policy and instead rely on unwritten procedures.
 Fraud 2NC
Fraud and abuse tank efficacy of the program and turns the aff.
Chris Edwards 16, director of tax policy studies at Cato, 5-26-2016, "Food Subsidies,"
Downsizing the Federal Government,
https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/agriculture/food-subsidies

The school lunch and breakfast programs are not just for low-income families. Any child at
participating schools is allowed to receive meals under the programs. Families with incomes below 130
percent of the poverty level receive free meals, while those between 130 and 185 percent of the poverty level receive reduced-price
meals. Families above 185 percent pay "full price," but that price is also subsidized to an extent. In
2015, 65 percent of the
meals were free, 7 percent were reduced price, and 28 percent were full price.40
Like the food stamp program, the school breakfast and lunch programs were designed to reduce hunger. But the low-income
population has changed over the decades, and excess weight and obesity have become serious problems among children. The
school lunch and breakfast programs may contribute to the weight problems experienced by
young people from low-income families.

The school lunch and breakfast programs are subject to widespread fraud and abuse. The
official rate of improper payments for the school lunch program is 16 percent, while the rate for
the breakfast program is 25 percent.41 Local governments do relatively little verification of
recipient eligibility, and so large shares of free and reduced-price meals are taken improperly by
families with incomes above the cutoff levels.

No proof of income, such as a paystub or W-2 form, is needed for school lunch applications, and federal rules restrict school districts
from an upfront verification of eligibility.42 But when federal auditors have examined samples of applications in detail, they find that
about half require downward adjustments in benefit levels because incomes are misreported.43 The USDA Inspector General has
recommended that applicants provide proof of income, which would be a basic check on abuse.44

A pattern of abuse by teachers and officials discovered in the Chicago Public Schools (CPS) is indicative of the problems. The Chicago
Tribune reported:

At the West Side school, more than

a dozen CPS and city employees had submitted false applications
for free or reduced-price lunches, according to James Sullivan, Chicago Public Schools' inspector general. The alleged
offenders included teachers, teachers assistants, district employees, a security officer and two people in law enforcement, some of
them earning six-figure salaries.

The findings led Sullivan to conclude in his report that the

National School Lunch Program, meant to provide basic
nutrition to needy students, was "ripe for fraud and abuse" because of layers of bureaucracy,
incentives for high enrollment, and minimal checks and balances.
 Consequentialism/Util 1NC
The affirmative has to defend the consequences of the aff the affirmative
leads to empty moralism.
Greene 10 (Joshua, Associate Professor of Social science in the Department of Psychology at
Harvard University, The Secret Joke of Kants Soul published in Moral Psychology: Historical and
Contemporary Readings, Historical and Contemporary Readings,
www.fed.cuhk.edu.hk/~lchang/material/Evolutionary/Developmental/Greene-KantSoul.pdf)

What turn-of-the-millennium science is telling us is that human moral judgment is not a pristine
rational enterprise , that our moral judgments are driven by a hodgepodge of emotional dispositions, which themselves were
shaped by a hodgepodge of evolutionary forces, both biological and cultural. Because of this, it is exceedingly unlikely that there is
any rationally coherent normative moral theory that can accommodate our moral intuitions. Moreover, anyone who claims to have
such a theory, or even part of one, almost certainly doesn't. Instead, what that person probably has is a moral rationalization. It
seems then, that we have somehow crossed the infamous "is"-"ought" divide. How did this happen? Didn't Hume (Hume, 1978) and
Moore (Moore, 1966) warn us against trying to derive an "ought" from and "is?" How did we go from descriptive scientific theories
concerning moral psychology to skepticism about a whole class of normative moral theories? The answer is that we did not, as Hume
and Moore anticipated, attempt to derive an "ought" from and "is." That is, our method has been inductive rather than deductive.
We have inferred on the basis of the available evidence that the phenomenon of rationalist deontological philosophy is best
explained as a rationalization of evolved emotional intuition (Harman, 1977). Missing the Deontological Point I suspect that
rationalist deontologists will remain unmoved by the arguments presented here. Instead, I suspect, they
will insist that I have simply misunderstood what Kant and like-minded deontologists are all about. Deontology, they
will say, isn't about this intuition or that intuition. It's not defined by its normative differences with consequentialism. Rather,
deontology is about taking humanity seriously. Above all else, it's about respect for persons. It's about treating others as fellow
rational creatures rather than as mere objects, about acting for reasons rational beings can share. And so on (Korsgaard, 1996a;
Korsgaard, 1996b). This is, no doubt, how many deontologists see deontology. But this insider's view, as I've suggested, may be
misleading. The
problem, more specifically, is that it defines deontology in terms of values that are not
distinctively deontological , though they may appear to be from the inside. Consider the following analogy with religion.
When one asks a religious person to explain the essence of his religion, one often gets an answer like this: "It's about love, really. It's
about looking out for other people, looking beyond oneself. It's about community, being part of something larger than oneself." This
sort of answer accurately captures the phenomenology of many people's religion, but it's nevertheless inadequate for distinguishing
religion from other things. This is because many, if not most, non-religious people aspire to love deeply, look out for other people,
avoid self-absorption, have a sense of a community, and be connected to things larger than themselves. In other words, secular
humanists and atheists can assent to most of what many religious people think religion is all about. From a secular humanist's point
of view, in contrast, what's distinctive about religion is its commitment to the existence of supernatural entities as well as formal
religious institutions and doctrines. And they're right. These things really do distinguish religious from non-religious practices,
though they may appear to be secondary to many people operating from within a religious point of view. In the same way, I believe
that most of the standard deontological/Kantian self-characterizatons fail to distinguish deontology from other approaches to ethics.
(See also Kagan (Kagan, 1997, pp. 70-78.) on the difficulty of defining deontology.) It seems to me that consequentialists, as
much as anyone else, have respect for persons, are against treating people as mere objects, wish to
act for reasons that rational creatures can share, etc. A consequentialist respects other persons, and refrains from
treating them as mere objects, by counting every person's well-being in the decision-making process.
Likewise, a consequentialist attempts to act according to reasons that rational creatures can share by acting according to principles
that give equal weight to everyone's interests, i.e. that are impartial. This is not to say that consequentialists and deontologists don't
differ. They do. It's just that the real differences may not be what deontologists often take them to be. What, then, distinguishes
deontology from other kinds of moral thought? A good strategy for answering this question is to start with concrete disagreements
between deontologists and others (such as consequentialists) and then work backward in search of deeper principles. This is what
I've attempted to do with the trolley and footbridge cases, and other instances in which deontologists and consequentialists
disagree. Ifyou ask a deontologically-minded person why it's wrong to push someone in front of
speeding trolley in order to save five others, you will get characteristically deontological answers. Some will be
tautological: "Because it's murder!" Others will be more sophisticated: "The ends don't justify the means."
"You have to respect people's rights." But, as we know, these answers don't really explain anything , because if you
give the same people (on different occasions) the trolley case or the loop case (See above), they'll make the opposite judgment,
even though their initial explanation concerning the footbridge case applies equally well to one or both of these cases. Talk about
rights, respect for persons, and reasons we can share are natural attempts to explain, in "cognitive" terms, what we feel when we
find ourselves having emotionally driven intuitions that are odds with the cold calculus of consequentialism. Although these
explanations are inevitably incomplete, there
seems to be "something deeply right" about them because
they give voice to powerful moral emotions . But, as with many religious people's accounts of what's essential to
religion, they don't really explain what's distinctive about the philosophy in question.
 AT: Worst Case Thinking Bad 1NC
There should be a high barrier of disproving our analysis worst case thought is
inevitable but ours is based in probability not possibility.
Vlek 2009
Charles, professor emeritus of environmental psychology and decision research in the Faculty of
Behavioural and Social Sciences, Groningen University, A PRECAUTIONARY-PRINCIPLED
APPROACH TOWARDS UNCERTAIN RISKS: REVIEW AND DECISION-THEORETIC ELABORATION
Erasmus Law Review [Volume 02 Issue 02] http://www.erasmuslawreview.nl/files/Vlek_-
_issue_Pieterman_d.d._27_augustus.pdf

A basic proposition inherent to the PP is that more

caution is justified when there is greater uncertainty
about possible negative consequences and/or about the seriousness of those consequences. Another
proposition is that any risk problem always implies at least two choice alternatives: go/do not go, accept/reject, or permit/restrict.
Also, there are at least two 'states of nature*: there is a serious threat or there is not. This
elicits two possible basic
decision errors: (1) a false positive, when you take costly precautions while there actually is no
threat, and (2) a false negative, when you neglect real danger. The gravity of these two errors is relative to
the corresponding benefits of deciding 'correctly': being costly precautious when there is a threat, and being profitably careless
when there is none. A further point is that a precautionary decision often is provisional; a revised choice
can be made when new information becomes available. When one knows more about the possible
consequences of a target course of action, about their manageability by further safety measures, and/or about feasible alternatives,
then the initial cautious decision may be revised, and the original goal(s) may be achieved in a safer way. Thus there are in fact not
two but three basic decision options: do, do not do, or defer (see Section 4.4.4). The fundamental problem not of the PP but of
uncertain-risk situations, is the great uncertainty about the possibility of serious harm. This may lead one to call it a normative
principle, but only if one does not accept the rationality of temporarily shrinking back from a course of action that might lead into
disaster.** 4.2 Nature and seriousness of potential harm What is a 'serious threat* that could initially trigger and later justify
precaution? It must be something that could thoroughly disrupt a person's, life, harming its positive development, bringing about
long-term trauma, and causing very high costs of recovery, reversal, or compensation. Or, at the societal level, a serious threat might
cause severe social disruption, environmental damage, and political shock, which would take many years, numerous debates, and
considerable funds to overcome. In view of these considerations, the notion of serious harm may be assessed in terms of the criteria
assembled in Box 2; these link up with basic results from riskrisk- perception research. Psychologically, a focus on possible worst
cases or potential catastrophality is more obvious the greater the uncertainty about its actual, often very unlikely, occurrence.59
This 'probability neglect* may be enhanced by the emotions surrounding images of disaster.60 Godard's61 warning about
radical 'catastrophism' lines up with Starr's,62 who ascribes present-day 'hypothetical fears* (e.g.
of global warming, irradiated foods, and GMOs) as arising from a primitive instinct to suspect the unknown,
which leads to the PP - seen by Starr - as a barrier to an adaptive future.63 Thus, under great uncertainty, worst-case

analysis may be inevitable , but 'worst-case thinking' may be a tricky affair, which should be
guarded from improper influences and considerations, such as special interests, exaggerated
fears, and unreasonable assumptions. In cases of catastrophic potential, however, there is a
high burden of proving their impossibility .
 AT: Worst Case Thinking Bad 2NC
Assess our extinction scenarios in terms of plausibility. We have drivers and
events based in evidence and empirics.
Tonn and McGregor 2009
Bruce and Donald, Department of Political Science, University of Tennessee, A singular chain of
events, Futures 41 (2009) 706714

A true human extinction scenario ends in failure; humans are unable to prevent their own demise. Humans
are faced with a series of threats that in the end we are unable to overcome. For various reasons, we
may not take these threats seriously, may act on them too late, may implement poorly thought-out responses, and/or simply may
not know how to properly react to the threats. Our adaptations generally are too little and too late. For
a human extinction
scenario to be of value to policy makers, it must possess verisimilitude. That is, the threats
included in the scenario need to be plausible and have a ring of truth. The driving forces behind
the threats need to be well explained. Human responses to the threats need to be probed. The path of events and
adaptations must show how todays human population that exceeds six billion people decreases over time until the last human in
the universe breathes his or her last breath. Generally, then, human extinction scenarios can be constructed with these four generic
elements: Events, Drivers, Adaptations, and Pathways. To keep a scenario plausible, some criteria need to be established for what
each of these elements can legitimately constitute, such as: Events: There
must be some evidence or a valid model to
suggest that a major event in the scenario either has occurred previously in the past or could occur in the future.
Drivers: There must be some evidence or a valid model that the forces causing major events exist
either in society or in the natural or physical world. Adaptations: There must be some evidence that the adaptations actually do
occur, could occur or have occurred in the past in response to the conditions present in the scenario. The evidence could be in the
form of citations of historical adaptations or could be derived or inferred from theoretical and/or empirical research in the social or
behavioral sciences. Pathways: The scenario must explicitly describe the events, drivers, and adaptations over time that leads from
the current population to human extinction. Events and drivers that could lead to massive loss of human life may be quite easily
imaginable, but how those last few most resilient humans perish must also be directly addressed and could be relatively more
challenging to imagine. The dynamic relationship between these basic elements can be seen in Fig. 1. Population declines over
period of time as a function of the impact of events and the recovery effects of adaptations. Nonetheless the net effect of events
and adaptations is a continuous downward trend in population, ultimately leading to extinction. Thus, human
extinction
scenarios ought to be based on plausible events and drivers. Have we witnessed the events and
drivers in the past and/or can we forecast the events using current scientific knowledge? If so,
those events and drivers can be used in a human extinction scenario. If not, then maybe those events and
drivers belong to the world of science fiction or religion and not future policy studies. Does the scenario allow for human
adaptation? It should. Of course, the key characteristic of a human extinction scenario is that all adaptations eventually fail, as
should be clearly explained in the scenario itself.

Specificity does not mean were less reliable, scenarios are a valuable means of
dealing with extinction risks. There are billions of possible futures, think in
terms of how many of those futures reflect our disad.
Tonn and Stiefel 2013
Bruce and Dorian, Evaluating Methods for Estimating Existential Risks, University of Tennessee
Knoxville Professor of Political Science, Risk Analysis DOI: 10.1111/risa.12039
8. EXTINCTION SCENARIO ELICITATIO.N ANCHORING METHOD Scenarios arc descriptions of plausible future worlds.'5*' In
the
extinction scenario approach, the assessor writes/collects a set of representative yet dis- parate human
extinction scenarios and assesses ei- Ihcr classical or imprecise probabilities for each sce- nario through
reflection and contemplation of the scenarios. Then, the assessor assesses how indicative each scenario is. where
the concept of indicativeness is meant to convey how much of the entire space of human futures each scenario appears lo
represent. For example, ascenario that encompasses a large chain of unusual and highly unlikely
events could be assumed to represent only a small number of the tril- lions of potential human
futures. A set of such sce- narios would represent only a small space of human futures, as shown in Case A in Fig. 4. On the
other hand, a set of scenarios could describe plausible po- tential future worlds that are
relatively insensitive to changes in key parameters. In this case, it would seem as though
extinction scenarios dominate the space of potential human futures (See Case B in Fig. 4). After the
assessor makes the indicative determinations, he or she is then tasked with providing a holistic proba- bility assessment. Fig. 5
presents a graphical depiction of a hu- man extinction scenario developed by Tonn and MacGregor.'*1*' A series of global
catastrophes lead to a rapid decrease in human population. Soci- eties become balkanized: the previous "Haves" re- treat to
enclaves and destroy the technological in- frastructures outside of Ihe enclaves lhal could be used by the "Have-nots" lo threaten the
enclaves. Over time, the enclaves themselves perish because inhabitants outlive their capacity for fertility and human cloning fails.
Resources available lo the "Have-nols" continue to collapse. A series of natu- ral disasters then befall the earth and the remaining
humans. Due lo rapid cooling and the oxidation of suddenly exposed rock from falling sea levels, the level of oxygen in the
atmosphere drops below the level needed lo sustain human life. The last humans asphyxiate. This scenario posits a long chain of
unlikely events. Our own estimation is that the likelihood of this scenario is much less than the lt)~~u ethical threshold. On the other
hand, the
series of events leading to a major decline in population seem plau- sible and could
happen in any number of orders. The question is whether humans have the capacity to adapt. If one answers yes. then
the indicativeness of this scenario would be low. If one doubls human adaptability, then the indicativeness of this scenario would be
high. The Tonn and MacGregor|5<,) scenario was pub- lished in a special issue of the journal Futures on the topic of human
extinction. Other scenarios published in this issue had related themes: (1) Human fertility rales continue to decline and humans die
out naturally;'60' (2) Catastrophic global warming increases atmo- spheric temperatures beyond the range of hu- man survival;'61'
(3) Catastrophic climate change leads lo biologi- cal terrorism, weakening human populations in the face of a series of natural
disasters;'*'2' (4) Human civilization fails lo prevent an all-out nuclear war;'63' (5) A miracle cancer vaccine miraculously admin-
istered to every human turns out lo have fatal consequences for all humans;'64' and (6) Systemic failures to adapt to the plethora of
challenges currently facing human societies lead lo extinction.'65' Our review of this set of human extinction sce- narios suggests
that they are broadly indicative of po- tential human futures. While
additional reflection is warranted to provide
even lower and upper probabil- ities on the event of human extinction, we do believe that the
lower probability of human extinction, based on these scenarios, greatly exceeds the II)-20
ethical threshold . The primary strength of the extinction scenario method is that well-crafted scenarios will
explic- itly describe how the last human perishes. Another strength is that the stories depicted in the
scenarios ought to be easy to communicate to the general pub- lic. Its primary weakness is that, other than
in the futures studies community, scenario methods do not appear lo have wide acceptance in the academic com- munity. For (his
method, accuracy is relevant in the sense that the scenarios are more or less indicative of the
future. However, scenarios are less about predicting the future and more about what is possible in the fu- ture and what the
future looks like as those scenarios are unfolding so that we recognize the opportunities to make new choices.
 AT: Cognitive Bias
Aff is worse asks you to evaluate immediate returns over future ones.
Norman and Delfin 2012
Emma, Co-Editor in Chief of Politics & Policy & formerly an associate professor at the
Universidad de las Amricas Puebla, and Rafael, researcher in economics at the Universidad de
las Amricas Puebla, Wizards under Uncertainty: Cognitive Biases, Threat Assessment, and
Misjudgments in Policy Making Politics & Policy Volume 40, Issue 3, pages 369402, June 2012

Voldemort's incorporeal existence minimizes his direct presence in the first five Potter books. In fact,
he is encountered by only one central protagonist (Harry) before his public reappearance at the end of the fifth volume. Excepting
the showdown at the end of book four, those encounters are either semi-direct and transient, or telepathically experienced. Harry's
close friends mostly believe him, as do his teachers, yet few others concur or connect
Voldemort's possible return to
the progressively violent events in the story. For most, the probability of his return is dismissed
because he is never seen as the direct source of danger. Instead, Fudge uses the national press to discredit
Potter's claims and depict the boy and his godfather as the real threats, ultimately trying Harry in wizard high court and, when that
fails, delivering him to the sadistic wiles of Professor Dolores Umbridge and her new school curriculum. Fudge's action targets the
wrong threat, and his fixation with Sirius' and Harry's guilt leads him to downplay mounting evidence indicating the right one. This
ties in with Gilbert's second feature obstructing accurate threat assessment: direct, clear, and present dangers are
prioritized over future possible dangers. Like many species, a large part of the human brain is
devoted to respond to immediate threats. In evolutionary terms, humans have learned to predict the future and
avoid threats that are not yet coming only relatively recently, and the neural networks responsible are concomitantly small. That
is why we care less about the future than any rational analysis suggests we should . . . it takes a
huge amount of cajoling . . . and training to get people to do anything on behalf of their future selves
from saving for retirement to flossing (Gilbert 2010). It is widely understood that global warming will affect the planet
seriously at some point in the future and probably within our own lifetimesbut not this weekend. As Fudge's
character recognizes in his official labeling of Harry, not Voldemort, as public Undesirable no. 1,
clear and present dangers trigger stronger concerns than future possibilities where full
information about their occurrence is unavailable or uncertainavailable information might also be
downplayed or adjusted to fit previous anchors. Drawing from findings in behavioral economics that people
overwhelmingly opt for immediate rather than future rewards unless the latter are very high (Lehrer 2009;
McClure et al. 2004), this feature signals the transgenerational payoff delay involved in any climate
change mitigation as an area of obvious concern. In particular, it implies that free riding in international
environmental policy has an explanation that runs deeper than rational choice. Nordhaus (2010, 11725-6) presents data showing
that if the terms of the 2009 Copenhagen Accord are met, the abatement costs would outweigh the averted damages more than five
times from now until 2055. After that critical year, a reversal should occur: damage avoided would exceed costs more than four
times. Asking present generations, he concludes, to shoulder large abatement costs would be asking for a level of political
maturity that is rarely observed, (11725) because they lack the appropriate cognitive architecture.
 AT: No Nuclear War 1NC
War wont stay conventional Trump makes nuclear escalation uniquely likely
and use it or lose it pressures ensures theres a low threshold for escalation.
Donnelly, Veteran National Security Reporter, 12/14/2016
John, Nuclear Threats Rise in Concert With Trump's Ascension Donnelly, John M. Roll Call;
Washington, D.C. [Washington, D.C]14 Dec 2016.

A growing cadre of security analysts says the risk that nuclear weapons might be used by nations or terrorist

groups is increasing and it may even be higher than it was in the Cold War.
, The critics want to lessen the risk that America's nuclear weapons

due to
could be used rashly or inadvertently, system error, false warning or U.S. sensors or computers compromised by enemy action. For one thing, they say, it is past time to end the requirement that nuclear missiles must be ready to launch within
minutes. And, they say, a planned $1 trillion overhaul of America's nuclear arsenal is excessive. But the odds appear slim that their calls will be heeded in Congress. In the wider world, rising tensions make it harder for leaders to take unilateral action that could

Trump's election brings critics' nuclear fears to a

increase stability, for fear they might be perceived as weak. Bilateral or multilateral agreements are hard to complete. Donald

boil Clinton sought unsuccessfully to convince voters to keep Trump from the Oval Office in
. Hillary

part to keep his volatile temperament away from the nuclear-launch codes. Now that Trump is
about to take the helm, those worries will swell. Trump appears open to a cozier relationship
with Putin. But it remains to be seen whether his approach will do anything to lessen
Russian President Vladimir

the risks of conflict with a Russia that is dead set on using its military with growing brashness to defend its interests. Even if a nuclear mistake is
unlikely to happen in any given year over decades the odds grow for it to happen at least once , ,

the critics argue. What's more, they argue, even if the chances are low, the harm is intolerably high, so if the risk can be reduced without diminishing deterrence by

taking certain steps, why not take them? "One false alarm in a century is one too many, because the consequences could be catastrophic, could be civilization-ending," says Bruce Blair, a former U.S. intercontinental missile launch control officer who is now a

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists "Doomsday Clock," an

researcher at Princeton University. [Kaine, Other Senators Take Sides in Clash Over Nuclear Arms]

attempt by experts to measure the threat of nuclear conflict, has been at three minutes to
midnight since last year. It was that close to midnight only twice before: in the height of the 1984, at

Cold War and when the Soviets tested their first atomic weapon.
, in 1949, It was two minutes to midnight only once: in 1953, after the hydrogen bomb

The risks of nuclear war are rising mostly not only, because Putin has deployed
was developed by both superpowers. , but

his country's military, including its nuclear forces, with increasing aggression --from its proxy invasion of Ukraine to its buildup of

forces in Syria. To wit, Russian aircraft and ships are buzzing U.S. and NATO counterparts virtually every day somewhere around the world, U.S. officials say. The Russians recently moved nuclear-capable missiles near Poland and Lithuania. They have repeatedly
conducted exercises involving nuclear forces, and America has too. They have broken the 1987 treaty on Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces by developing a new nuclear ground-launched cruise missile. They tauntingly sailed an aircraft carrier battle group through
the English Channel last month. Russian media reported the nation conducts civil defense drills each October, the most recent of which was said to involve 40 million people. Both Russia and the United States are engaging in cyber-espionage and sometimes

Russian military doctrine calls for

cyberattacks, some of which could trigger physical outcomes -- such as electrical outages -- that in turn could be considered an act of war, some experts worry.

using nuclear weapons as a means to essentially frighten an adversary into backing down from a conventional fight. "The odds of war with
Russia are rising," says Richard Shirreff, a retired British Army four-star general and a former deputy commander of NATO forces. "We must assume, given the way Russia integrates nuclear into every aspect of military doctrine, that this must include the risk of
nuclear war." It is not hard to imagine U.S. and Russian aircraft clashing, if only by accident, in the crowded skies over Syria -- if not in the Baltics, the Arctic, the North Sea, the Aleutians or elsewhere. Moscow's rhetoric, too, has waxed radioactive. Dimitry Kiselev, a
Putin progagandist, recently warned of "nuclear consequences" in response to "impudent behavior." All this may be Russia blustering and posturing in ways it sees as serving its interests. But it has already led to a pattern of escalation between nuclear Russia and
nuclear America. For example, Russian actions in Ukraine were a response to NATO expansion, and those actions led the U.S. to "reassure" allies by deploying to the Black Sea warships bristling with Tomahawk missiles that cou ld put Russian command-and-control,
air-defense and early-warning facilities at risk, says Princeton's Blair. Moscow in turn deployed attack submarines to the Black Sea to shadow U.S. ships, he says. Then American forces replied by sending P-8 sub-hunting planes. "The current confrontation is steadily

Moscow is not Washington's only nuclear worry. The

escalating, with definite nuclear implications," Blair says. [Red Alert: Russia Looms Large as Security Threat]

naval and air forces of America and China, another nuclear power, are on the front lines of a
dispute over China's contested claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea. North Korea , meanwhile, steadily

nears the capacity to threaten U.S. territory with nuclear warheads

one day -- perhaps in Trump's first term -- missiles carrying . Iran's nuclear

Nuclear Israel stands ready to respond if Iran breaks out. Then there
ambitions are bound for now by an internationally monitored agreement.

is the problem of nuclear and radiological materials unsecured and sometimes traded on the
black market Enough highly enriched uranium and plutonium to build tens of thousands of
.

nuclear bombs is spread South Asia's nuclear powers, India

across 24 countries, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a group that monitors proliferation.

and Pakistan atomic rivalry poses a risk to the

, are not threats to the United States, but as the only two atomic nations to regularly have gone to war with one another, their

planet. Casualties from a "limited" nuclear exchange between those countries would exceed 2 billion people, by one estimate, mainly from starvation, as the soot kicked up by atomic explosions would cause cooling and reduced precipitation. A larger

Trump may want to threaten or even use military force

U.S.-Russian war would have worse consequences. to in the early days of his administration

demonstrate his toughness to potential adversaries. It's not known how he would respond in a
high-pressure situation involving the possible use of nuclear weapons. Experts are putting forth a number of proposals to reduce the risks.

A key issue is the requirement U.S. military forces to be ready within 12 minutes -- of perceiving the homeland is under

to launch some 600-plus nuclear warheads should the president decide to do so, a
attack -- nd to unleash them

within about five minutes of getting the order. Russia has a similar launch-on-warning posture. Because American ground-
based missiles and command-and-control facilities are most vulnerable there is a particularly ,

strong imperative to "use or lose" them if a country thinks an enemy attack is en

route, the tight timeline and the vulnerability of ground systems
critics say. [Defense Bill Would Expand U.S. Missile-Defense Policy] The worry is that

would add to the pressure in a crisis, and a president might choose to fire the weapons on
mistaken warning of an enemy attack -- a decision he or she might not make if more time to process the information was built into the system. U.S. forces have mistakenly thought they were under

attack before. In 1979 it was a training tape that was mistaken as a real attack. In 1980, a failed computer chip was to blame. These alarms were revealed as false in time. But if electronic communications were compromised or human beings didn't act wisely, things

The tenser the situation, the more likely military personnel are to give credence to
might have gone worse, critics say.

indications of attack. Military advances

The Russians have also had several near-misses where they mistook innocuous events as nuclear assaults and, thankfully, were able to recognize it in time.

can lead to confusion in a nuclear scenario, some analysts worry. Cyberattacks could potentially disable or overtake nuclear command systems or early warning radars and networks. A strike

on a surveillance or missile-tracking satellite could leave leaders operating at least partially in the dark. Missile defenses could diminish a nation's deterrent. Increasingly long-range weapons such as conventional cruise missiles could take out nuclear command
facilities or silos without crossing the threshold of using atomic weapons. A better system would build in some delays, the critics argue. That could be accomplished, for example, by eliminating the requirement for prompt launch or mandating a one-day waiting
period or decoupling the warheads from the missiles, as many other nuclear nations do. There is no need to rush to decide to launch nuclear weapons during a crisis, critics say. Even if the United States withstood a massive nuclear attack and lost its ground missiles
and bombers, the virtually invulnerable U.S. ballistic missile submarine fleet still has sufficient firepower to respond by essentially destroying an enemy's country, some experts say. Conservatives argue that de-alerting nuclear missiles could actually result in
heightening tensions. Once the missiles have been taken off alert, any move to put them back on alert could be perceived as escalating a crisis, they say. Supporters of de-alerting respond that there would be no need to re-alert, because enough firepower exists on
subs to obviate the need for doing so. Eliminating the need to be able to fire nuclear missiles within minutes could have budgetary consequences, too. It could lessen the requirement for having so many nuclear submarines at sea at all times and ready to hit targets.
"This conversation is only going to get louder as the costs grow ever more punishing," Kingston Reif, a nuclear expert with the Arms Control Association, told CQ Roll Call. When Obama was running for office, he called for taking U.S. nuclear weapons off their high
state of alert. So did George W. Bush, when he was a candidate. But neither man followed through as president. The critics have called for the United States to announce that it will not be the first nation to use nuclear weapons in a future conflict. Obama has

Is it time to reduce the triad to a

rejected calling for such a change. The man Trump has chosen for his Defense secretary, retired Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis, is among those asking hard questions. "

diad , removing the land-based missiles? This would reduce the false alarm danger," Mattis asked a Senate committee last year. Hawks will push back hard. The roughly 430 ground-based intercontinental

ballistic missiles, or ICBMs, are stationed in 165 launch facilities scattered across 14,000 square miles in the northern Great Plains. The senators representing North Dakota, Wyoming and Montana wrote President Barack Obama on Oct. 25 urging his support for
funding a new missile. They did not address de-alerting, but they said the ICBM fleet is necessary because their dispersal complicates an adversary's war plans. "We must make sure our military forces have the tools they need to perform their job," Steve Daines, a

prospect of a Trump
Republican member of the Senate Defense Appropriations Subcommittee who represents Montana, told Roll Call. "We know our enemies aren't waiting around to make it a fair fight." The

presidency has also led many critics to begin questioning whether one man, the commander in
chief, should have sole authority to wage nuclear war . After all, they say, a congressional declaration is required, in theory at least, to engage in conventional conflict.
 AT: No Nuclear War 2NC
Conflicts will go nuclear Trump volatile temperament, launch on waning
postures puts the US and Russian forces on a collision course in less than 12
minutes, and vulnerabilities of warheads increase use it or lose it pressures
thats Donnelly.
Even if it doesnt escalate Conventional war is an existential threat advanced
weapons.
Dvorsky 12
George Dvorsky, Chair of the Board for the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, co-
founder and president of the Toronto Transhumanist Association, 2012 (9 Ways Humanity
Could Bring About Its Own Destruction, io9, December 12th, Available Online at
http://io9.com/5967660/9-ways-humanity-could-bring-about-our-own-destruction, Accessed
07-29-2014)

9. World War III At the close of the Second World War, nearly 2.5% of the human population had
perished. Of the 70 million people who were killed, about 20 million died from starvation. And
disturbingly, civilians accounted for nearly 50 percent of all deaths a stark indication that war isn't just for
soldiers any more. Given the incredible degree to which technology has advanced in the nearly seven
decades since this war, it's reasonable to assume that the next global conventional war' i.e.
one fought without nuclear weapons would be near apocalyptic in scope. The degree of
human suffering that could be unleashed would easily surpass anything that came before it,
with combatants using many of the technologies already described in this list, including autonomous killing
machines and weaponized nanotechnology. And in various acts of desperation (or sheer
malevolence), some belligerent nations could choose to unleash chemical and biological agents
that would result in countless deaths. And like WWII, food could be used as a weapon;
agricultural yields could be brought to a grinding halt .