You are on page 1of 281

.

420 80

10

11

12

13

14

50

1987 1-8 10

7
1987 1 1

44% 10 9

23%

10

10

11

20 80

12

13

14

15

1983 12

50 1977-1984

43

1983

1983 54 1984

15

1989 9

NAV 2

NAV

2 NAV

16

NAV NAV

30

30 Albert

Wojnilower10 10

20 30

30

30

30

17

20 80

Cen

Trust Saving and Loan Association-

1300

1989 6

18

19

20

21

Aetna

1991

1 2

22

23

20 80

80

2000

24

20 80

20

80

80

nominal returns

yield pigs

20 80

20 80

25

Ginnie Mae

GNMA

Ginnie MaeGNMA

GNMA

GNMA

26

27

20 80

90
1987

1989 10 1990

Pavlov

28

29

20 80

1990 1991

30

31

2%~8% 1 10

15%~30%

/ 2 /

32

IPO

10

8% 9.2

9.2

33
10%-15%

1989-1990

1989

6 Spain Fund 92%

9.2 3

260% 1990 2 2

34

20

80 90

1991

35

36

1990 Janney Montgomery

&

37

1987

250
1

38
150 2

39

20 80

40

Selffulfilling Prophecy

41
IOs POs
POs

20 80

Interest Only IOs

Principal ONly POs

IOs POs

IOs POs

IOs

IOs

IOs

POs

42

IOs POs

43

20 80

IPO

20 80

50

20

80 Silk Greerholise

TCYB 80

20 80

TWA

Crazy Eddie E.F.

E.F.Hutton Inc.

44
B.Altman

IPO

1986

1987

42


900%

45

46

30

1929

1950 1070 1968 5000

40

8% 45%

1974

47
1979

3/4

48

49

500

50

Paul Rosenstein rodan

tremble factor

51

52

SEC

53

10

20 5000

5%

10 10 5% 5000 1991

559

54

55

56

Warrant

LBOs

57

1990

1987

1987

58
3%

3%

3%

3%

59
1987 10 19

10%

1989

60

Renaissance Investment Management 1989 10 24

10

60

20 11

4 10

61
1983-1990

500

10

62

63

Blockbuster Entertainment Corporation

1991 500

1.55 9.1%

500 4%

proxy contest

64

1980-1990

100 1700

90% 500

80

Lipper analytical service)

31 24

1983

5000 Wilshire 5000index


29 23

12.7% 5000 10.7%

65

66


20
20 80

20 80

2000

1990

1991



Grant's

Interest Rate ObserverJames Grant

67

What's Wrong with Wall Street

20 80

Michael Milken

20 70

W.Braddock

Hickman20

Drexel

68
Firestone

20 80

1974-1975

ERISA

69

70

20 80

10

Braniff

Flight Transportation corporation)

NFCs
20 80

1990

25%-50%

LDC

PIK

71

20 80

1990

Ed Altman
The High

yield debt market) 12

72

20 80

73

20 80

1980

Drexel Burnham

74
Lambert

20 80

1982

20 80

Dr Pepper

Jack-In-The-Box Colt Industries

75

Barrie Wigmore

1980-1988 1.0

20 80

20 80

76

T.Rowe Price

Gresham

20 80

77

1989

10

1990

78

1980

GICs

first executive corporation)

first capital Holding corporation)

GIC

1990

1991 4

79

PIK

PIK

PIK

80
20 80

PIK

PIK

20 70

PIK

PIK

PIK

81

20 80

20 80

Maxxam

95 Western

Union corporation)

82
16% 19.25%

80 40 1989 Drexel Brunham

Lambert
Jim Walter corporation)

-RJR NabsCo KKR 1989

50 PIK

KKR

RJR

Cramdown debt

15

93%

83

250 LBO-

RJR

KKR

129 / 109 / 40

EBITDA

84
20 80 5

20 80 5

20 80

EBITDA

EBITDA

20 80

EBITDA

85
EBIT

EBIT

EBIT

EBIT EBIT

EBIT

EBIT

86
40

EBITDA

EBIT

100% EBITDA

EBITDA

20 80

EBITDA

87

EBITDA

EBITDA

EBITDA

EBITDA

EBITDA

1 X Y 1990

88
X Y

100 100

80 80

0 20

EBIT 20 0

EBITDA 20 20

EBITDA

2000 X Y

EBITDAX

Y 2000

EBITDA

EBIT EBITDA

89

Collateralized Junk-bond obligationCBOT


CBO

CBO

CBO

CBO 75%

14% 10%

CBO

750%

CBO

CBO

CBO

90

EBITDA

1990

20 80

91

92

93

IPO

94

1000

30% 30%

30%

30%

95

2 1000

5 10 20 30

6% 1.338 1.791 3.207 5.743

8% 1.469 2.159 4.661 10.063

10% 1.611 2.594 6.727 17.449

12% 1.762 3.106 9.646 29.960

16% 2.100 4.411 19.461 85.850

20% 2.488 6.192 38.338 237.376

10 16%

9 20%

15%

10 9

96

90%

97

15%

6%

30 8%

15%

8%

98

99

50 1

100

101

15%

10%

1/4

102

50

50

70

103
80 1.1 1

50

50 1

104

75 1.25

1 1

105
3 1

Dr Pepper

Dr Pepper

106

Dr Pepper

Erie Lackawanna 1987

140 /

107
110 /

Erie Lackawanna

1991 179 /liquidating

distribution1988 115 1987

1989 18%

1989 6

1989 11

18%

Texacoa

1987 Pernnzoil

Texaco Pennzoil 100 Texaco

Texaco

108

Texaco

Texaco

1994 5 1 11.875%

1987 10

18

1987

11 1 1 2 3

44.1%25.4% 19.5%

109

1991 3 6

72 4 24 61.875

9.375 5 14 13.25

36 3 6

110

1987 Telefonos De Mexico SA 10

1988

15 / 75 /

6.25%

1991 Telefonos 3.25

111

IBM

100

112

113

BBB

114

Proxy Fight

400 / 260 /

1:1.5 390 /

10 /

115

20 80

Mutual Series Fund L.

116

20 80

1990

20 80

1990

1990

117

118

10

119

10%

15%

120

121

122

123

124

1 1

Beta

6% 1 1

6%

100

125

Beta

126

Beta Beta

Beta

Beta

Beta

Beta

50 IBM 100 IBM

Beta

Beta

127

Beta

128

129

130

NPV

IRR

131

132

net working

capital

1989

Harcourt

Brace Jovanovich Sea World

133

1991 Tonka

Hasbro Tonka

tonka

tonka

Tonka

NPV

Priviate Market value PMV

134
Break-up value

stock market value

135

1980

10

136

1990

Interco

137

138

10%

10%

12%~15%

139

140

141

20 80

142

10

13-15

20 80

1989 1990

20 60 70

(circular reasoning)

143

144

break-up value

carrying value

receivable

accounts receivable

145

net net-working

capital

working capital

146
contingent

liabilities

stock market value

1990

Schaefer Value Trust

147

148

149

reflexive relationshipreciprocal

relationship

self-fulfilling prophecy

1991

1991 Marriott

Corporation

150
1990

Mortgage and Realty Trust


Esco

Esco

1990 10 Emerson Electric

151
company)Esco

1:20 Esco

1000 50 Esco Esco

5 3

15

40

Esco

Esco

Esco

Esco 5

6000 320 170

Esco 1986

1.9
Esco 15 / Hazeltine

Esco 820

1985 3630

1989 670

1380

1990 520

4 4500

152
Esco 25 /

15 /

Esco

Esco

Esco

Esco

1990 10 Esco

Esco

1991

740

Esco 1991-1995

Esco 5

Hazetine

Esco 500

500 45 /

Esco Esco

45 /

153
1996 740

45 /

TNN Esco

Esco

Esco

5 Esco 45 /5

90 /

5.87 / 4.7 /

12% 15%

Esco 10

220 20 / 12%

15% 14.76

154
10.83 Esco 4.70 /

14.76 /

Esco

Esco 1-2

Esco

Esco

Esco

Esco

155
4 1.9 Hazeltine

Esco Esco

Hazeltine Esco

Esco Hazeltine

15 Esco

Esco

15 /

Esco

12%

400%

4-6

Alliant Techsystems 2

156
60%-100%

Esco

740

3 Esco

Esco

Esco

3 25 /

Esco 3

6 40%

25% 10 /

3 Esco

Esco

Esco

1991

Esco

157
8

--

GAAP

GAAP

158

159

20 80

pooling of interests

160
20 80

161

162

163

164

10K
Form 10K

10Q

1990

30 15

165

15 5 3

166

167

1983 Nabisco

10

168

80/20 80% 20%

David Dreman

Clorox

53 11

169

first mortgage bonds

Vickers

stock Research

170

25

50

25

50

171

172

173

174

175

Teledyne

10

176
1984 city investing company)

Home Insurance company)

city investing liquidating trust)

177



900
9.0

46.0
730
36.5
5500
40.0
1700
9.0
1800
1000
12.0
1500
10.0
1100
6.0
3500
31.0

199.5

4.0

195.5
5.02

31985 9 25

Pink sheet

178
3

KKR

1984 12 RheemRarco World

Color Press 9

KKR 1985 9

5.02

Wood Brother Homes

RHeem

179
Rarco

1991

9 1985

9 3

20 30

1958

Missouri-Kanas-Texas Railroad

180
company) Participation

certificates

1985

--

Missouri Pacific Railroad company

1983

Seafirst Corporation

Seafirst

Seafirst

1.2 5

2 / 25

1989 Dow

Chemical CompanyMerrell dow

Pharmaceuticals)

contingent rights

181
2-3

1991 9 30

1991 6 19 1991 9 30

45.77

15.77

Marion

Merrell dow) 67% 9200

rights offering

182

XYZ

100 25

1500 XYZ

15 XYZ

XYZ

200 4000

20 5

95

195

20.13 20

25

20%

XYZ

15 20

183
25

IPO1984

consolidated Oil and Gas)

3.25 / IPO

0.03125 /

0.015625 /

5 1.5

184

1987 12 B-E Holdings Becor Western

185
1987 6 Becor 1.093

1.85

11 /
3000

Bucyrus-Erie

Becor Western B-E Holdings

Becor Western

17 /

3 B-E Holdings 12.5% 1

10 B-E Holdings 12.5% 15

0.2 B-E Holdings 25

0.6 B-E Holdings


0.01

Becor 57.5%

Becor

9.775

1.275 1

4.25 15

0.085

0.255

186

Becor

1987 Becor 10

1987 12

1988 1

10

10

10 /B-E Holdings

15

50%

25%

14

Becor

12 /Becor

12

187

14.25 Becor

188

20 80

20 80

1990

189

IPO

190

191

Tandy Corporation

1986 InterTan InterTan

15 /net-net

working capital 11 /

InterTan 11

10 25

4000 40

100 Tandy 20

InterTan 220 220

InterTan

4000

InterTan

4000

InterTan

45%

192
Tandy

InterTan InterTan

InterTan

1989

62.75

1988

Burlington Northern Burlington Resources

Burlington Northern

Burlington Resources

Burlington Northern

Burlington Resources Burlington Northern

Burlington Resources

burlington northern

Burlington Resource 19

193
3.5 / 1.20

19

1990

1988 2

194

19

1983

20 70

3-6-3 3%,

6%3

20 80

1982 -
Garn-St.Germain Act of 1982

20

80

195

Ipo

1 / XYZ 100 11

/ 100 200

1200

6 /

5 45% 5 /

1000

10 100

1000

2000

IPO 20 /

196

IPO

IPO

IPO

20 80

197
10-20

198

20 80

1990 6 Jamaica Saving Banks

199
JSB JSB JSB Financial

5000

1866

1989 12 31 15

1.971 13.5%

2/3

30%

10 / 1600

47%10

IPO

200

8000

IPO

2/3 IPO 40%

1/3

21.12

25 18%

IPO

IPO 30%

IPO

201

202

203

Johns ManvilleTexaco A.H.Robins

20 80

204

Texco

205

206
1

50% 67%

X 1 7500

75

25%

207

2/3 1/3

208

2/3

209

1978 Food Fair Stores

1985 wheeling Pittsbursh steel

Cleveland-Cliffs

Hanna Mining

1983

210

211

Mutual SeriesMichael

Price

212

3 1

213

Ames Department

Stores Integrated

Resources

Public Service company of New Hampshire

LTV Corporation Jone &

Laughlin Steel

214

215

Am International

1983 Braniff Airlines

216
PBGC

Wheeling Pittsburgh Steel LTV Corporation

Wheeling LTV

Secured debt

security interest

fulcrum securities

217

Ron Labow

Wheeling pittsburgh Steel

1/3

218

HBJ

Harcout Brace Jovanovich HBJ

HBJ 1989

8 46

HBJ

1989 9

HBJ 11 10

15

46 36 1990

1 31 10 4

2/3

HBJ

1990 1

219
14 -7 1

General Cinema Corporation 15

1 50

6-9 9.5

BNET1990

1 70

10-13 3.5

2.5

10-13

220
10.5 100 10.5

3.5 3

1991

10.5

30-40

221

1991

Michael Milken

222

Heinz Ketchup

IBM
223

Mitigating factor

10 20

224

225

5-10

226

500

227

1988 1990

228

1990 40%

229

230

20 90

231

232

233

234

Bill Ruane

235


236

Mutual

SeriesSequoia Fund

237

238

239

240

241

242

.. Baupost

1991 07

243

244

80

1991

80

245


self-fulfilling prophecy--
self-fulfilling prophecy

80

1991
N
CDO

2007

10 10% 9 20% 10
15%

246
())

247


A 2008 10
B 5
1

1974

2007



10

248
60



NPV

249


10%-12%
10%

Reflexive relationship

Self-fulfilling prophecy

.

2007 10


())

250



90
/
1983 Nabisco
/
.

80/20 80% 20%

.2007 10 20

251

95%

25 25 1
20%

25


180


252

MIT

2007 10 20

253

25

25 24

8%

254

Slippery Slope

20 70

255

liar loan
95%

256

257

95% 5

15%-20%

258

Tweedy Browne

Tweedy Browne

25

1 94 20%

259

Beta 25

Beta

efficient frontier

Alpha Beta

Chicago school of Economic

50

500

Wilbur Wright
James

TobinTo conquer the Air)

260
Orville)

smithsonian) Samuel Pierpont

Langley)

20 20

261
80

50 1

262

BBB

Tax selling

263

1934

3/4

25

264

180

265

9/10 Financial Analyst Journal CFA

5 16-19 Jason Zweig Seth Klarman

Seth Klarman

Graham Dodd

Baupost

Graham Dodd

bargains

bargains

financial distress


litigation

Graham Dodd

266

Graham

Mike Price Max Heine

Mike Price

Max Heine kind

08 09

08 09

08

LBO

LBO

267
LBO

return on book value12-15%

AAA

07 08

fully

invested at all times

bargain

08 distressed debt

268
residentialmortgage-backed securities

2009

spinoffdistressed debt

post-bankruptequities

Ford Motor Credit

8 40%

06 07

08

2010 Seth Klarman--Market is not a

weighing machine, but rather a voting

machine2009 3 17

269

ROE

30%

270

catalyst

08 35%

20%

dead instruments

1932 Benjamin Graham

enterprise

60 50 40

covered80100

271

panic

arrogance

discipline

round trips

6-12

5-6%unsophisticated

272

depression mentality

AAA AAA

273
groupthink

intellectual honesty

Baupost

ethics

idea

10-15 ideas

bargains TARPPPIP

FDIC

274

5-6%

2 distressed debt

40-60 90

essential determinantsome


price

30-40%

Graham The Intelligent Investor Security Analysis

275
Security Analysis

Joel Greenblatt You Can Be a Stock Market Genius

Marty Whitman Martin Shubik The Aggressive Conservative

Investor

Jim Grant

Michael Lewis Moneyball


Big Short

20

Andrew Ross Sorkin Too Big to Fail Roger Lowenstein The

End of Wall Street

it does rhyme

Jim Grant


2010/11/1~11/7

276

2007 12 Value

,,,

e-Bay 1,000 , 1,000

,,

, ,

,,Value

, 13 ,

,, 20

, ,

(),,

,, ,

, 2001

,,

,,,

277
, 2005

20 90 ,

,,

,,,

) ,,

(),

,,

,,,

,?

, 50% 70%?

, ,

,,()

, ,

, ,

,,

,, , 50%

278
,,

2008 3 ,

, ,,

, 30

35%,, , 30

25%,

,15 ,

7 17.4%, 3 35.5%

12 , 60,000

15 , 7 17.4%, 3

35.5%, ,

,,

, ,,,

60,000

, :

2007 ,,,

,,,

? 2006 6

, 100

279
,:,

!, ,

? 620,100

,,

,,,

14

100

?,

2007 10

20 25 ,

20%, 1

94 ,

, 25 24

?,

280
,,

,,

,,

? ,

,,

281

You might also like