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Even the best risk measures have limitations. Awareness of these limitations can
help investors avoid common pitfalls.
Risk is the uncertainty of an outcome. Risk metrics quantify this uncertainty, providing
an estimate of the range of possible outcomes. These measures are critical tools for
portfolio construction and performance assessment because a principal assumption
of investing is that to achieve a given level of return, investments with lower risk
are preferred over those with higher risk. Investments that carry more risk typically
offer a higher level of expected returns to compensate for the greater uncertainty.
However, increased risk by its very nature means that these higher expected
returns may not be realized in a given time period. Like any other tool, risk metrics
have limitations.
C o n n e c t w i t h Va n g u a rd > www.vanguard.com
Figure 1. Range of calendar-year returns for various stock Figure 2. Various absolute risk measures for investment returns
and bond allocations, 19262006
Historical or simulated
frequency of returns (%)
60% Risk of loss
(probability of Mean
negative returns) return
40
Average annual return (%)
20 Shortfall risk
Annual return (%)
20
Value-at-risk
(99% VaR)
40
Asset
60 returns
Return at 1% 0% Target Mean
Stocks 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% probability return return
Bonds 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Asset allocation Standard deviation (a measure of dispersion around the mean;
one standard deviation encompasses about 68% of returns)
Benchmarks
Stocks = Standard & Poors 500 Index, 19261970; Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Source: Vanguard Investment Counseling & Research.
Composite Index, January 1, 1971April 22, 2005; Morgan Stanley Capital
International (MSCI) US Broad Market Index, April 23, 2005December 31, 2006.
Bonds = Ibbotson Intermediate Government series, 19261972; Lehman Brothers
Intermediate U.S. Treasury Index, 19732006.
Risk metrics are based on the historical performance Risk measures fall into two categories: absolute
of asset classes. Although historical performance is and relative. In this paper, we review widely used
inescapably the foundation for our best estimates of metrics, describing their uses and limitations. We
future risk, the future will never repeat the past. The also identify considerations for investors applying
proverbial one-hundred-year storm can undermine risk metrics to portfolio construction and oversight.
expectations based on even the most sophisticated Ideally, for major mandates such as pension or
risk metrics. endowment funds, risk metrics will be incorporated
into the policy statement. This practice not only
Even if risk cant be predicted with certainty, risk provides guidance to portfolio managers but can also
metrics provide critical information to help answer help fiduciaries in assessing portfolio performance
the most important question for any investor: How over time.
should a portfolio be invested to gain the best
chance of achieving its objectives? Risk metrics have Successful use of risk metrics depends on selecting
also proven reliable for comparing the relative risks measures that are consistent with a portfolios
of different asset classes. For example, Figure 1 objectives. It is also essential to understand the
displays the range of annual returns for various limitations of available data.
combinations of stocks and bonds over 81 years,
providing a clear illustration that as the weighting of
stocks in a portfolio increases, so does the volatility
of the portfolios returns.
C o n n e c t w i t h Va n g u a rd > www.vanguard.com
Connect with Vanguard, Vanguard, and the ship logo are Vanguard Investment Counseling & Research
trademarks of The Vanguard Group, Inc. All other marks are
the exclusive property of their respective owners. Ellen Rinaldi, J.D., LL.M./Principal/Department Head
Joseph H. Davis, Ph.D./Principal
Francis M. Kinniry Jr., CFA/Principal
Frank J. Ambrosio, CFA
John Ameriks, Ph.D.
Donald G. Bennyhoff, CFA
Maria Bruno, CFP
Scott J. Donaldson, CFA, CFP
Michael Hess
Julian Jackson
Colleen M. Jaconetti, CFP, CPA
Kushal Kshirsagar, Ph.D.
Karin Peterson LaBarge, Ph.D.
Christopher B. Philips, CFA
Glenn Sheay, CFA
Kimberly A. Stockton
Yesim Tokat, Ph.D.
David J. Walker, CFA
FLGERM 0307