Energy xxx (2016) 1e8

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Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

A novel method for optimal fuel consumption estimation and

planning for transportation systems
rz*, Heinz Bernhardt
Sascha Wo
t Mnchen, Wissenschaftszentrum Weihenstephan fr Erna
Technische Universita hrung, Landnutzung und Umwelt, Lehrstuhl fr Agrarsystemtechnik, Am
Staudengarten 2, 85354 Freising, Weihenstephan, Germany

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: With increasing public concern about the environment, liveability and sustainability have become
Received 10 June 2016 important issues in minimal fuel consumption estimation for transportation systems. Microscopic fuel
Received in revised form planning and emission models use vehicle speed and acceleration as inputs and are suitable for pre-
8 November 2016
dicting the amount of fuel at the link level. However, the lack of microscopic trafc data limits the
Accepted 19 November 2016
Available online xxx
application of these models. A method is provided for acquiring microscopic information from macro-
scopic trafc data. The main approach is to reconstruct the state and vehicle group trajectories with an
Expectation Maximization algorithm with nice convergence properties and then to apply Dijkstras al-
Keywords:
Fuel consumption prediction and estimation
gorithm in order to nd a transport route with minimal fuel consumption. Validation of the method
Fuel minimization shows that the estimated fuel consumption reects the real fuel amount and hence, the route with
Optimal transport planning minimal fuel consumption determined by Dijkstras algorithm is actually suitable for optimal transport
planning.
2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction and literature review
Because of the global challenge of climate change and air
pollution, sustainability and liveability issues are of increasing in-
terest in road transport, and in a more general context, in trans-
portation research. Considerable efforts have been devoted to
innovations maximizing fuel economy and reduce emissions
through optimal fuel consumption estimation. Seid et al. [1] use a
partial least squares regression (PLS-regression) and autoregressive
integrated moving average methods (ARMA-models). Mathemat-
ical remarks to PLS-regression can be found in Ref. [2]. As a refer-
ence for autoregressive integrated moving average methods
(ARMA-models) [3] can be used. Local eet conguration and
operating conditions are considered by Zhang et al. in Ref. [4],
followed by an empirical study of emission data obtained from a
portable emission measurement system by Yu in Ref. [5]. In Ref. [6],
Martin et al. developed a Bayesian fuel consumption model. Gense
et al. found that lowering the speed limit to 81 mph on Dutch
motorways can improve emission levels signicantly [7]. Zegeye
* Corresponding author.
rz), heinz.bernhardt@wzw.tum.de
E-mail addresses: woerz@wzw.tum.de (S. Wo
(H. Bernhardt).
et al. proposed a model-based control algorithm to reduce emis-
sions and travel time [8]. Ahn and Rakha indicated that trafc
measures that reduce sharp acceleration behaviour can slash fuel
consumption and emission rates [9]. Because it is expensive to
collect empirical fuel consumption and emission data, generalized
energy models are often used for predicting respectively estimating
the amount of fuel to diminish emissions. These models are either
macroscopic or microscopic, according to the level of detail. Rakha
et al. compare the macroscopic models MOBILE5a, MOBILE6 versus
the microscopic models VT-MICRO and CMEM for estimating hot-
stabilized, light-duty vehicle emissions based on the two sources
of data ORNL and EPA with the result that the latter are superior
[10]. Ntziachristos et al. present the main characteristics of COPERT
4 software, a European tool to calculate emissions from road
transport [11]. In Pollack et al. [12], the overall purpose was to
conduct top-down assessments of MOBILE6 emission factors using
real world-data, and to use available data on vehicle emissions
collected in a controlled manner such that the vehicle sources are
well-characterized and can be attributed to a test eet that can be
reasonably duplicated using MOBILE6. Thereby, the macroscopic
models use average trip speed as input to estimate network-wide
emission rates and are suitable for applications in large networks.
Microscopic models developed with regression or physical analysis
use instantaneous vehicle power demands or speed and

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.110
0360-5442/ 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Please cite this article in press as: Worz S, Bernhardt H, A novel method for optimal fuel consumption estimation and planning for
transportation systems, Energy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.110
2 rz, H. Bernhardt / Energy xxx (2016) 1e8
S. Wo

acceleration as inputs to calculate instantaneous fuel consumption

and emission rates, however suffer from the drawback of insuf-
cient accurate- and preciseness according to a missing estimation
variability. Though, they are more accurate than macroscopic
models and more appropriate for applications at the local or link
level Ahn et al. [13], where both fuel consumption and emission
models are considered, as opposed to Barth et al. [14], where only
emission models are studied, a common problem in use of micro-
scopic energy and emission models is the lack of real empirical
data. Fixed roadside detectors (e.g., loop detector, camera, radar)
collect macroscopic trafc variables in aggregated time intervals,
and these cannot be used directly in microscopic fuel consumption
and emission models. This leads to the following research ques-
tions: Can the fuel consumption be estimated from macroscopic
trafc data, and how accurate and precise is this estimation in sense
of Figs. 1 and 2? A method is proposed for estimating the fuel
consumption from macroscopic trafc ow variables such as cur-
vature, slope and type of street, vehicle parameters such as engine
power, tyre equipment, average velocity and acceleration, type of
vehicle and trafc parameters such as number of counted transport
vehicles per hour.
A measurement system can be accurate but not precise and vice
versa, neither, or both. Fig. 2. Four cases have to be distinguished.

The main approach is to reconstruct the trafc state and vehicle

group trajectories with an Expectation Maximization (EM) [15],
whereby in literature in addition to linear and non-linear regres-
to reconstruct vehicle trajectories is a way to estimate trafc states
sion sometimes neural networks which learn the relationship be-
has been widely used in travel time estimation. Li et al. [24] used
tween the input parameters, output parameters and the controlled
point detectors for the evaluation of speed-based travel time esti-
and uncontrolled variables by studying previously recorded data,
mation models. In Ref. [25], Lint et al. use dual loop detectors for
are used with a major drawback discussed in section 3. In Ref. [16],
improving a travel-time estimation algorithm. Corte s et al. [26] use
Soteris used articial neural networks in the eld of solar energy.
loop detectors for estimating link travel times. In Ref. [27], Sun et al.
Alvarez [17] used articial neural networks for predicting average
use loop detectors for travel time estimation based on piecewise
regional yield and production of wheat in the Argentine Pampas. In
truncated quadratic speed trajectory. In Ref. [28], Ni and Wang also
Ref. [18], Irdemoosa and Dindarloo used articial neural networks
use them for trajectory reconstruction in order to estimate travel
for the prediction of fuel consumption of mining dump trucks and
times, followed by Ref. [29], where Yeon et al. use make use of them
in Ref. [19] Safa and Samarasinghe used them for modelling fuel
for travel time estimation on a freeway in combination with time
consumption in wheat production. Then, after using the EM algo-
Markov chains. In Ref. [30], Hen and Hadi use loop detectors for the
rithm, Dijkstras algorithm [20] is applied in order to nd a trans-
estimation od segment travel times. These methods differ in their
port route with minimal fuel consumption. By now, few efforts have
assumptions, but they all use interpolation of speed information at
been made to obtain vehicular accelerations at a macroscopic level.
upstream and downstream detectors and thus are only as accurate
The only instance the authors have found dates to the 1960s, when
and precise as the underlying interpolation formula maps the
Pipes analytically derived the acceleration of an observer moving
physical dependencies. Hence, such formulas may distort the wave
with the trafc ow [21]. However, the analytical solution has not
patterns in the rst-order trafc ow theory Lighthill and Whitham
been validated or applied since. At a microscopic level, estimation
[31], where long crowded roads are considered. The same holds for
of vehicle acceleration becomes possible if empirical trajectory data
Newell [32], where highway trafc is studied. However, Coifman
are available Thiermann et al. [22]. In Toledo et al. [23], empirical
proposed a trajectory reconstruction method that is based on the
trajectory data are used for a locally weighted regression. However
notion that signals propagate through the trafc stream in constant
few empirical trajectory data sets are available. Thus, reconstructed
wave speeds over time and space: uF for free ow and uC for con-
synthetic vehicle trajectories can serve as a bridge to estimate ac-
gested conditions [33]. With this method, one can easily determine
celeration from macroscopic trafc data. Use of loop detector data
a speed map vx; t in the time-space plane through use of the
observed time of the signal or perturbation and the trafc condi-
tions. An adaptive smoothing method that can preserve the wave
patterns in trafc ow was proposed by Treiber and Helbing [34]
and further rened by Van Lint and Hoogendoorn [35]. Using this
spatio-temporal lter, Van Lint showed a better estimation of travel
time than that of the PCSB and PLSB methods with empirical data in
a three-lane free-way section in the Netherlands [36].

2. Materials and methods: problem denition, mathematical

model and convergence analysis

This section describes the proposed mathematical forecast

model to estimate the fuel consumption of representative transport
Fig. 1. Mathematical denition of Accuracy and Precision. vehicles under different trafc conditions and the optimization

Please cite this article in press as: Worz S, Bernhardt H, A novel method for optimal fuel consumption estimation and planning for
transportation systems, Energy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.110
 rz, H. Bernhardt / Energy xxx (2016) 1e8
S. Wo 3

model for optimal transport planning with respect to a minimal

1
fuel consumption. Both models are based on a certain amount of Nx; mi ; Si : qe2xmi Si xmi
1 T 1
(7)
macroscopic trafc data. First, an Expectation Maximization (EM)
2p detSi
d
algorithm is used to merge the spatio-temporal trafc information
from stationary data. Next, the estimation of fuel consumption of
with means
representative vehicles is based on reconstructed trajectories and a
probability classication algorithm. Finally, the Dijkstra algorithm
mi : EXi ; i 1; ; n (8)
is applied to the estimated fuel consumption data in order to obtain
an optimal transport route with respect to a minimal fuel and positive-denite covariance matrices
consumption.
  
Si : Cov Xia ; Xib ; a; b 1; ; d: (9)

2.1. Use of an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate Now, the Gaussian Mixture
the trafc state
NGM x; p1 ; ; pn ; m1 ; S1 ; ; mn ; Sn :
Let n2. Without loss of generality let the discrete values p1 Nx; m1 ; S1 pn Nx; mn ; Sn (10)

zi 2; i 1; ; n; (1) is considered, where the pi  0; i 1; ; n; satisfy the constraint

denote the realizations of random variable p1 pn 1; (11)

Zi ; i 1; ; n; (2) to obtain a density function.

Using NGM the incomplete-data likelihood function is given by
and the discrete values

xi 2d2 ; i 1; ; n; (3) LIC m1 ; ; mn ; S1 ; ; Sn ; x : x1 ; xm :

Y
n
the realizations of random vector NGM xi ; p1 ; ; pn ; m1 ; S1 ; ; mn ; Sn ;
i1

Xi ; i 1; ; n; (4) (12)
Using the expectation operator EZi , indicator functions
whereby the zi ; i 1; ; n represent the observed stationary fuel
IfZi zi jXi xi g; i 1; ; n; j 1; ; n; and Bayes theorem we get
consumption of the macroscopic trafc data rounded to a certain
number of digits and the xi ; i 1; ; n the observed trafc data as
terrain, vehicle and other inuencing parameters. Next, we
EZi IfZi zi jXi xi g PZi zi jXi xi
consider the conditional probabilities
pi Nxi ; mi ; Si
(13)
PXi xi jZi zi ; i 1; ; n; (5) NGM xi ; p1 ; ; pn ; m1 ; S1 ; ; mn ; Sn

which we assume to be Gaussian, i. e. the complete-data likelihood function is given by

PXi xi jZi zi : Nxi ; mi ; Si (6)

with

Fig. 3. Speed - fuel consumption.

Please cite this article in press as: Worz S, Bernhardt H, A novel method for optimal fuel consumption estimation and planning for
transportation systems, Energy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.110
4 rz, H. Bernhardt / Energy xxx (2016) 1e8
S. Wo

LC q : p1 ; ; pn ; m1 ; ; mn ; S1 ; ; Sn ; x x1 ; xm ; z : z1 ; ; zn
P
n X
n  
: IfZi zi jX1 x1 gNx1 ; mi ; Si pi ,, IfZi zi jXn xn gN xj ; mi ; Si pi
i1 i1 (14)
" #!
Pn P n
  1 1 T X1   d
exp I Zi zi Xj xj ,, logpi  logdetSi  xj  mi i
xj  mi  log2p
j1 i1 2 2 2

Next, the expectation value of the log-likelihood, EZ LC x; Z; q;

Q q : EZ logLC q; x; z
2 33
Xn X n
  1 1 T X1   d
EZ logexp  4
I Zi zi Xj xj ,, logpi  logdetSi  xj  mi xj  mi  log2p55
2 2 i 2
j1 i1
2 2 33
Xn X n
  1 1 T X1   d
EZ 4  4
I Zi zi Xj xj ,, logpi  logdetSi  xj  mi xj  mi  log2p55
2 2 i 2
j1 i1 (15)
" 2 33
P
n Xn
  1 1 T X1   d
EZ I Zi zi Xj xj ,,4logpi  logdetSi  xj  mi i
xj  mi  log2p55
j1 i1
2 2 2
2 3
P
n P
n   1 1 T X1   d
PZi zi Xj xj ,4logpi  logdetSi  xj  mi i
xj  mi  log2p5
j1 i1 2 2 2

 
17: p11 ;;p1n
is calculated. Now, an arbitrary 0 1
   Pn   
B Pn P Z1 z1 X x 
P Zn zn Xj xj C
B j1 j

j
;;Pn j1  C
BPn Pn  P  C;
@ i1 j1 P Zi zi Xj xj n 
j1 P Zi zi Xj xj
A
  i1
q0 : p01 ; ; p0n ; m01 ; ; m0n ; S01 ; ; S0n (16)
(19)
is chosen and the following two maximization problems
Pn   
P Zi zi Xj xj xj 1
j1
18 : m1i Pn  

 ; Si
j1 P Zi zi Xj xj
2 Pn     
1 x  m1 T

Xn   i   j1 P Zi zi Xj xj xj  mi j i
arg max 4 P Z1 z1 Xj xj log p11 Pn    : (20)
p11 ;;p1n 0 j1 P Zi zi Xj xj
j1
2 (17)
In general formulas dependent on the time t,
Xn   i  
4 P Zn zn Xj xj log p1n ; Pn   
j1 P t Zi zi Xj xj
j1
pt1
i Pn Pn  

; (21)
j1 P Zi zi Xj xj
t
i1
and for i 1; ; n
Pn   
j1 P t Zi zi Xj xj xj
mt1
i Pn  

 ; (22)
j1 P Zi zi Xj xj
t

X    
n    1
arg max P Zi zi Xj xj  log det S1i
m1i ;S1i 2 Pn     T
j1 (18) P t Zi zi Xj xj xj  mt1 xj  mt1
  T X11   St1
j1
Pn   i  i
: (23)
1 i 
j1 P Zi zi Xj xj
t
 xj  m1i i
x j  m1
i
2
Next, it is shown that our algorithm converges for an arbitrary q0
are considered. The solution of (17) and (18) is given by, within one iteration.

Please cite this article in press as: Worz S, Bernhardt H, A novel method for optimal fuel consumption estimation and planning for
transportation systems, Energy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.110
 rz, H. Bernhardt / Energy xxx (2016) 1e8
S. Wo 5

Theorem 2.1 (Convergence Theorem): For an arbitrary q0, it

holds for i 1; ; n, pi Nx; mi ; Si
PZi zi jX x (28)
NGM x; p1 ; ; pn ; m1 ; S1 ; ; mn ; Sn
p1i pi ;
for i 1; ; n in the expectation value EZi IfZi zi jXi xi g, see
(13), when we set Xi : X, whereby X is a random vector repre-
m1i mi ; senting an arbitrary representative macroscopic trafc data input,
choosing the maximum value and the corresponding index i.
S1i Si ;
2.2. Use of Dijkstras algorithm for optimal fuel consumption
whereby q : p1 ; ; pn ; m1 ; ; mn ; S1 ; ; Sn is a local maximizer planning in transportation research
 
of (15). Moreover, q is a global one of (15), if q is a maximizer of
(13). After merging all estimated fuel consumptions obtained by Al-
Proof. By induction over t it is shown that gorithm 2.1.1 by dening a positive cost function c on all available
P t Zi zi jXi xi PZi zi jXi xi for all t20 , if paths, the Dijkstra algorithm is applied, which is given as follows:

logpi  12 logdetSi  12xj  mi T S1i xj  mi  2 log2p
d at-
Algorithm 2.2.1 (Dijkstra algorithm)
tains its maximum in qt . For an arbitrary starting point q0 , it holds Set Dist(v) 1/0 for all vertices except for the source and Dis-
t(v) 0 for the source.

0 1
Pn   P   
  B  n
P Zn zn Xj xj C
j1 P Z1 z1 Xj xj
p11 ; ; p1n B
BPn Pn   ; ; Pn j1P   C
C: (24)
@ i1 j1 P Zi zi Xj xj i1
n 
j1 P Zi zi Xj xj
A

1. Let all vertices be unmarked.

Pn    2. Let u be an unmarked vertex with
P Zi zi Xj xj xj
m1i Pj1
n  

 ; i 1; ; n (25)
j1 P Zi zi Xj xj
Distu minfDistx; x unmarkedg: (29)
Pn     
1 x  m1 T
 Mark u. If u v, stop.
j1 P Zi zi Xj xj xj  mi j i
S1i Pn    ; i 1; ; n:

j1 P Zi zi Xj xj 3. For all unmarked vertices v with uv2A, do: If
(26)
Inserting (24), (25) and (26) in (13) yields
Distv > Distu cuv; (30)
 
p1i N xi ; m1i ; S1i set
P 1 Zi zi jXi xi  
NGM xi ; p11 ; ; p1n ; m11 ; S11 ; ; m1n ; S1n
 
Distv : Distu cuv; Vorv : u: (31)
p1i N xi ; m1i ; S1i
   
p11 N xi ; m11 ; S11 p1n N xi ; m1n ; S1n
Pn   

j1 P Zi zi Xj xj PXi xi jZi zi 4. If there are unmarked vertices, go 2.
Pn Pn   
i1 P Zi zi Xj xj PXi xi jZi zi
j1
Thereby, a vertex represents a spatial point, A the set of edges
PXi xi jZi zi PZi zi connecting the points and a cost function c : A/ the costs for

PXi xi fuel consumption between the spatial points. In addition, a source s
PZi zi jXi xi ; (origin) and a sink v (destination spatial point) are given, whereby
Dist denotes the shortest path form s to  and Vor the pre-
(27)
decessor of  in a shortest path from s to . At the initialization step
whereby the last equation is obtained from Bayes theorem. Using of Algorithm 2.2.1, all vertices are assumed to be unmarked and
(27), the assertion follows by induction. with the progression of Algorithm 2.2.1, the vertices become
Theorem 2.1 yields the correctness of the following algorithm. marked successively. It can be shown that Algorithm 2.2.1 works
correctly [37] and hence outputs a shortest path or equivalently a
route, on which the fuel consumption is minimal. Of course, when
Algorithm 2.1.1 (conditional probability classication algorithm) there are additional inuencing parameters as e. g. one-way streets,
The fuel consumption classication is done by evaluating the they can also be involved in Algorithm 2.2.1. For an efcient com-
conditional probability puter implementation, a Fibonacci-Heap is used [37].

Please cite this article in press as: Worz S, Bernhardt H, A novel method for optimal fuel consumption estimation and planning for
transportation systems, Energy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.110
6 rz, H. Bernhardt / Energy xxx (2016) 1e8
S. Wo

Fig. 4. Conditional probability for fuel consumption dependent on the average speed and acceleration.

3. Computational evaluation 3.2. Component 2

In an experimental study, both algorithms in chapter 2 are
applied to macroscopic agricultural trafc data. To be precise, data
from a certain number of agricultural transport vehicles with and
without trailers from different power classes were recorded,
whereby the trailer variants were selected carefully according to
the trafc regulations. For every transport vehicle, the fuel con-
sumption, the macroscopic time-space data have been recorded
with a frequency of 1 Hz, using a ow-meter and a D-GPS receiver
resulting in an average speed and acceleration. In addition,
macroscopic trafc inuencing data as type of vehicle, engine po-
wer, tyre equipment, curvature of street, arithmetical mean slope of
the prole, average capacity and number of counted transport ve-
hicles per hour were acquired. Using Theorem 2.1 and Algorithm
2.1.1, the fuel consumption was estimated for two representative
agricultural transport vehicles, a tractor and a truck, on different
terrains. In order to obtain an imagination, how Algorithm 2.1.1,
which decomposes the domain of macroscopic data inputs into
suitable level sets and thus allows an accurate and precise data
mining, works, we consider the following univariate fuel con-
sumption  average speed and acceleration data dependency
evaluation of the tractor, which is often used in agriculture and has
the propensity to consume a lot of fuel [38], see Fig. 4:
Gaussian mixture distribution with 2 components in 2
dimensions.
3.1. Component 1
Mixing proportion: p11 0:509488.
 
39:7250 20:6981 1:3424
Mean: m11 Sigma: S11
5:7516 1:3424 19:8732
Mixing proportion: p12 0:490512.
 
24:9252 15:7271 0:5761
Mean: m12 Sigma: S12 .
4:1873 0:5761 15:3074
Using the conditional probability formula from (28) in combi-
nation with ve components, we have estimated the fuel con-
sumption of the two representative transport vehicles dependent
on their macroscopic trafc data. Comparing our method with
other fuel consumption estimation methods e. g. linear, non-linear
regression or neural networks, we would obtain a poor accuracy
and precision applying them, since these methods do not use a
level set decomposition what makes our method superior to all
other methods. A glance on Fig. 3 shows that to a xed average
speed value several average acceleration values do exist. Such a
correlation cannot be described accurately and precisely by a
function i. e. a linear and non-linear regression or be learned by a
neural network, however by an appropriate level set decomposi-
tion which is capable to model an arbitrary data relation. This
exactly causes the poor accuracy and precision when using other
estimation algorithms being based on a function approximation
what is mostly the case. In a second step, we the estimated fuel
values are used in order to obtain optimal routes with respect to
fuel consumption. Considering two fuel consumption planning
scenarios which were mapped for sake of simplicity into a boxcar
window without units 3; 32 respectively 2:5; 2:52 with
different sources 3 and 6 (origin spatial points) and different sinks 8
and 8 (destination spatial points), our optimal fuel consumption
planning algorithm (Algorithm 2.2.1) yields the following transport
plans with respect to minimal fuel consumption costs:
Thereby, the computation time for executing both algorithms
can be neglected using a i7-4790 processor with 4 cores and 8
.

Fig. 5. Scenario 1: Optimal transport planning tractor.

Please cite this article in press as: Worz S, Bernhardt H, A novel method for optimal fuel consumption estimation and planning for
transportation systems, Energy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.110
 rz, H. Bernhardt / Energy xxx (2016) 1e8
S. Wo
Fig. 6. Scenario 2: Optimal transport planning truck.
threads, though Algorithm 2.1.1 has a higher computation time as
Algorithm 2.2.1. In practice e.g. considering agricultural transport
vehicles, the dispatcher in an agricultural wage enterprise often has
to plan a corn harvest chain, where only a manageable number of
possible routes has to be considered. The same holds for other lo-
gistic sectors. Thus, according to the low computation time of our
proposed algorithms, it is also possible to plan short-dated mis-
sions, which in practice are very often on table. As Fig. 4 shows, it is
possible to estimate the conditional probability respectively the
conditional expectation value for a xed fuel consumption value
dependent on arbitrary representative macroscopic trafc data
input accurately and precisely by an appropriate level set decom-
position, where accuracy and precision has to be understood ac-
cording to Fig. 1 and 2. When applying Algorithm 2.1.1, this exactly
allows us to calculate the fuel consumption dependent on macro-
scopic trafc data in a way, which really extracts the whole infor-
mation from the considered data and in addition processes it very
smartly in a very dynamic setting. A glance on Fig. 5 and 6 shows
that Algorithm 2.2.1 actually calculates the routes with minimal
costs though that this is not very easy to check when considering all
possible routes very briey. In addition, the complexity of Algo-
rithm 2.2.1 is reduced to O jVjlogjVj jEj using a Fibonacci heap,
whereby jVj denotes the number of spatial points (vertices) and jEj
the number of links (edges) between spatial points, see Ref. [37].
4. Conclusion
We have presented two algorithms, whereby the rst can be
used for fuel consumption estimation and the second for optimal
route planning with respect to minimal fuel consumption. The rst
algorithm concerns the fuel consumption estimation of a repre-
sentative transport vehicle from macroscopic trafc data of a set of
given transport vehicles using an EM algorithm. The second algo-
rithm being a smart implementation of Dijkstra's algorithm uses
the estimated fuel consumptions in order to calculate an optimal
transport plan for the representative vehicle, whereby the costs for
the fuel consumption are minimal. Both algorithms have nice an-
alytic convergence properties and a very low computation time of
at most a few seconds, even for very large datasets. Especially, the
rst algorithm is very adaptive, how the contour plot in Fig. 4
shows. Thus, Algorithm 2.1.1 allows an accurate and precise fuel
consumption estimation in view of Fig. 1 and 2 for the rst time in a
long while using only macroscopic trafc data, eventually tending
the number of components to . A (mathematical) novelty in fuel
consumption prediction, estimation and planning!
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Please cite this article in press as: Worz S, Bernhardt H, A novel method for optimal fuel consumption estimation and planning for
transportation systems, Energy (2016), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.11.110