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In Search of Value In this report, we highlight our strategic and tactical portfolio positioning strategies for the fourth
quarter using various BMO Exchange Traded Funds (BMO ETFs). Our key strategy changes are outlined
throughout the report and in our quarterly outlook on page six.
In recent months, rising interest rates have been a main focal point for investors as central banks
around the globe look to tighten monetary policy. In an interesting turn of events, the Bank of Canada
(BoC), having made two emergency cuts to its overnight rate in 2015, has become the most hawkish
Alfred Lee, CFA, CMT, DMS amongst its peers. Between the beginning of May and the end of September this year, the five-year
Vice President, BMO ETFs government of Canada yield gained 73 basis points (bps) to 1.75%.
Portfolio Manager & Investment Strategist In addition to the gain in Canadian interest rates, the gap between U.S. and Canadian bond yields
BMO Asset Management Inc.
have converged (Chart A). Economic data out of Canada, such as stronger than expected gross
alfred.lee@bmo.com
domestic product (GDP), has also been supportive of higher interest rates. A number of economists
have since revised their interest rate expectations for 2018 to the upside. As a result, much of the
bullishness has likely already been priced into assets.
In this report: The Canadian dollar, which has gained 8.3% relative to the U.S dollar in the five months since May,
has been one of the top performing currencies over that period. In recent quarters, we had correctly
Recent Developments................ 1 recommended hedging U.S. dollar exposure; however, recent developments may suggest the greenback
is now looking more attractive. The CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) Commitment of
Things to Keep an Eye on...........2 Traders report shows speculative positions are now net long the loonie, which tends to be a contrarian
indicator. Investors will likely refocus on the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in coming
Changes to the months as it looks to shrink its balance sheet and is anticipated to raise rates again before the end of the
Portfolio Strategy.....................3 year. The U.S. dollar looks fundamentally set up for a rally, but the technicals have to show it is more
than a countertrend rally (Chart B).
Stats and Portfolio
Holdings....................................4 Equity markets have rallied in recent months as a result of a more robust economy. The rally has
been further sustained with additional investors forced to participate due to a fear of missing out. The
Portfolio Characteristics...........5 valuation of most equity markets is now becoming stretched, particularly in the U.S. Consequently,
investors may want to look to diversify their factor exposures in certain regions.
The Good, the Bad, Gold prices have experienced a 13.2% gain year to date due to geopolitical unrest. As tensions have
and the Ugly..............................6 risen between the U.S. and North Korea, bullion has gained as it is seen as a safe haven trade. Should
headline risk of nuclear threats continue in the face of the Fed tightening monetary policy, gold prices
All prices, returns and portfolio may experience some headwinds. Should the Fed look to raise rates, the U.S. dollar would likely be a
weights are as of market close on better safe haven than precious metals.
October 11, 2017, unless otherwise
indicated.
Chart A: U.S. and Canada 10-Year Spread Has Tightened Chart B: U.S. Dollar has Broken Above Resistance
1.5 1.50
US - Canada 10-Year Yield Spread
USD/CAD Exchange Rate
1.0 1.45
0.5 1.40
Spread (%)
0.0 1.35
-0.5 1.30
-1.0 1.25
-1.5 1.20
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24 Since the financial crisis, stocks have experienced a sizable rally with
the MSCI World Index gaining 265% on a total return basis (in US
dollar terms), between March 9, 2009 and September 30, 2017. While
22 asset price growth has been justified given the improvement in credit
conditions, liquidity and certainly in the economic environment, the
20 room for further earnings multiple expansion has become more limited.
P/E Ratio (Current)
60%
So far, the BoC has raised its overnight rate twice in 2017, removing
S&P 500 Composite the two emergency cuts it made two years ago to help stimulate the
U.S. Treasuries economy due to falling crude prices at the time. The Canadian economy
40% Gold has since shown signs of recovery with GDP growth in Q2 coming in at
an annualized rate of 4.5%, its fastest rate since 2011. This has caused a
number of economists to become more hawkish, with some expecting
20% up to five rate hikes in 2018. Consequently, much of the optimism of a
continued Canadian economic recovery is likely already priced into
Total Return
0%
both Canadian bond yields and its currency.
Recommendation: With national household debt still remaining at
record highs, a softening housing market and the strength of the loonie
-20% potentially impairing exports, the BoC may actually be limited in
terms of how quickly they can tighten monetary policy. With aggressive
-40%
expectations, rate hikes by the BoC next year can come at a slower pace
than what the market anticipates. While we recommended investors
overweight U.S. investment grade with a currency hedge several
-60% quarters ago, we now prefer mid-term Canadian investment grade
Dot-Com Slowdown 2008 Financial Crisis
bonds or reducing the currency hedge on U.S. investment grade bonds.
Source: Bloomberg Investors may want to consider the BMO Mid-Corporate Bond Index
ETF (ZCM) or the BMO Mid-Term US IG Corporate Bond Index ETF
(ZIC) respectively.
Portfolio Strategy Report Fourth Quarter 2017 3
BMO Low Volatility U.S. Equity ETF ZLU 3.00% BMO MSCI USA Value Index ETF ZVU 6.00%
BMO Covered Call Dow Jones Industrial Average Hedged to
CAD ETF
ZWA 3.00%
Total 6.0% Total 6.0%
Portfolio Strategy Report Fourth Quarter 2017 4
Portfolio Characteristics
Emerging Markets
Canada 45.5%
United States
United States 42.5%
Canada
Europe 9.9%
Asia 2.1%
Financials
Federal 8.5% Weighted Average Term 5.94
Provincial 7.9% Weighted Average Duration 4.36
Investment Grade Corporate 72.1% Weighted Average Coupon 4.2%
Non-Investment Grade Corporate 11.5% Weighted Average Current Yield 4.1%
Weighted Average Yield to Maturity 3.6%
Weighted Average Current Yield: The market value weighted average coupon divided by the weighted average market price of bonds.
Weighted Average Yield to Maturity: The market value weighted average yield to maturity includes the coupon payments and any capital gain or loss that the investor will realize by holding
the bonds to maturity.
Weighted Average Duration: The market value weighted average duration of underlying bonds divided by the weighted average market price of the underlying bonds. Duration is a measure
of the sensitivity of the price of a fixed income investment to a change in interest rates.
Source: Bloomberg, BMO Asset Management Inc. (As of October 11, 2017)
Portfolio Strategy Report Fourth Quarter 2017 6
Conclusion: Central banks around the globe have been focused on tightening monetary policy. While interest rates in
Canada could move higher, we have already experienced a notable upward shift across the yield curve. With economic
surprises to the upside less likely now, given expectations have been revised upwards, we believe optimism is largely priced
in and hence the sizable moves in both interest rates and equity markets have already transpired. Given the ongoing rally
in U.S. equities, we believe valuations are now becoming stretched, while equity markets in other regions are also not
inexpensive, valuations look more attractive on a relative basis. As such, we believe investors should be underweighting the
U.S. and having a higher concentration towards the value factor in the region.
International merchandise trade in Canada came Traditional measures such as P/E indicate the S&P The S&P/TSX Composite has continued to lose
in lower than expectations and negative, likely 500 Composite to be overvalued and so to do relative strength compared to the S&P 500
an impact of the strong Canadian dollar. more advanced measures such as EV/EBITDA. Composite since 2010.
Longer term indicators on Canadian housing Trailing earnings per share on average for the Implied volatility remains low, which indicates
prices are up significantly, but shorter-term S&P 500 Composite is lower than 2014. However, the options market is not pricing in any political
indicators show a steady decline in prices. have increased in recent months. risk.
With higher market expectations, its likely that Price to earnings and forward-looking price to
Bad economic data is less likely to surprise to the sales are well above the historical median in
upside. The Citi-Economic Surprise Index for European stocks. However, there is potential
Canada trending down supports this notion. upside on earnings and sales growth.
New stress testing for high-ratio mortgages in
Canada could put additional pressure on the
housing market.
Unemployment in many major European
countries still remain high.
Any statement that necessarily depends on future events may be a forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees
of performance. They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Although such statements are based on assumptions that are believed to be
reasonable, there can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from expectations. Investors are cautioned not to rely unduly on
any forward-looking statements. In connection with any forward-looking statements, investors should carefully consider the areas of risk described
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been licensed for use by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and sublicensed to BMO Asset Management Inc. in connection with ZEB. ZEB is not sponsored,
endorsed, sold or promoted by S&P Dow Jones LLC, S&P, TSX, or their respective affiliates and S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, S&P, TSX and their affiliates
make no representation regarding the advisability of trading or investing in such ETF(s).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index is a product of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and has been licensed for use by the BMO Asset Management
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have been licensed to S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and and sublicensed for use by BMO Asset Management Inc. in connection with ZWA. ZWA is not
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Jones and their respective affiliates make no representation regarding the advisability of trading or investing in such ETF.
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