Month Period Sales moving average exponential (forecast demand

Apr-03 1 4698 11301.6574074074

May-03 2 4605 9980.9259259259
Jun-03 3 4859 8905.7407407408
Jul-03 4 4136 8096.3925925926
Aug-03 5 3872 7304.3140740741
Sep-03 6 5938 6617.8512592593
Oct-03 7 8790 6481.8810074074
Nov-03 8 6825 6943.5048059259
Dec-03 9 4858 6919.8038447408
Jan-04 10 5907 6507.4430757926
Feb-04 11 6386 5448.8 6387.3544606341
Mar-04 12 9085 5617.6 6387.0835685073
Apr-04 13 6492 6065.6 6926.6668548058
May-04 14 6832 6228.9 6839.7334838447
Jun-04 15 8867 6498.5 6838.1867870757
Jul-04 16 4998 6998 7243.9494296606
Aug-04 17 5305 6904 6794.7595437285
Sep-04 18 7618 6555.5 6496.8076349828
Oct-04 19 11443 6634.8 6721.0461079862
Nov-04 20 8716 7293.3 7665.436886389
Dec-04 21 6119 7574.2 7875.5495091112
Jan-05 22 7408 7547.5 7524.239607289
Feb-05 23 7493 7379.8 7500.9916858312
Mar-05 24 8541 7479.9 7499.3933486649
Apr-05 25 8029 7650.8 7707.7146789319
May-05 26 8650 7567 7771.9717431456
Jun-05 27 9960 7932.2 7947.5773945165
Jul-05 28 7152 8397.7 8350.0619156132
Aug-05 29 7322 8351.1 8110.4495324905
Sep-05 30 9239 7939 7952.7596259924
Oct-05 31 14123 7991.3 8210.0077007939
Nov-05 32 9566 8791.7 9392.6061606352
Dec-05 33 7341 9007.5 9427.2849285081
Jan-06 34 9404 8992.3 9010.0279428065
Feb-06 35 8613 9078.6 9088.8223542452
Mar-06 36 9425 9137 8993.6578833962
Apr-06 37 10905 9214.5 9079.9263067169
May-06 38 9842 9309 9444.9410453736
Jun-06 39 12259 9578 9524.3528362988
Jul-06 40 9285 10071.7 10071.2822690391
Aug-06 41 7950 10076.3 9914.0258152313
Sep-06 42 11482 9459 9521.220652185
Oct-06 43 15817 9650.6 9913.376521748
Nov-06 44 10288 10498.2 11094.1012173984
Dec-06 45 8743 10586.6 10932.8809739187
Jan-07 46 10419 10599.6 10494.904779135
Feb-07 47 8801 10699 10479.723823308
Mar-07 48 8631 10488.6 10143.9790586464
Apr-07 49 9682 10367.5 9841.3832469171
May-07 50 9052 10109.8 9809.5065975337
Jun-07 51 11477 10086.5 9658.005278027
Jul-07 52 8242 10439.2 10021.8042224216
Aug-07 53 7674 10115.2 9665.8433779373
Sep-07 54 10339 9300.9 9267.4747023498
Oct-07 55 13919 9306 9481.7797618798
Nov-07 56 10531 9823.6 10369.2238095039
Dec-07 57 8435 9834.8 10401.5790476031
Jan-08 58 9750 9798.2 10008.2632380825
Feb-08 59 8477 9910.1 9956.610590466
Mar-08 60 9814 9789.6 9660.6884723728
Apr-08 61 10684 9865.8 9691.3507778982
May-08 62 11693 9786.5 9889.8806223186
Jun-08 63 14439 10131.6 10250.5044978549
Jul-08 64 9081 10808.1 11088.2035982839
Aug-08 65 9781 10682.3 10686.7628786271
Sep-08 66 10307 10268.5 10505.6103029017
Oct-08 67 14800 10246.1 10465.8882423214
Nov-08 68 7960 10882.6 11332.7105938571
Dec-08 69 6858 10703.6 10658.1684750857
Jan-09 70 9438 10541.7 9898.1347800685
Feb-09 71 8487 10504.1 9806.1078240548
Mar-09 72 10609 10284.4 9542.2862592439
Apr-09 73 11282 10176 9755.6290073951
May-09 74 12870 9860.3 10060.9032059161
Jun-09 75 17811 10239.2 10622.7225647329
Jul-09 76 12128 11042.2 12060.3780517863
Aug-09 77 10161 11224.3 12073.902441429
Sep-09 78 16359 10760.4 11691.3219531432
Oct-09 79 17796 11600.3 12624.8575625146
Nov-09 80 11604 12694.1 13659.0860500117
Dec-09 81 11517 12910.7 13248.0688400093
Jan-10 82 15925 13213.7 12901.8550720075
Feb-10 83 13532 13745.3 13506.484057606
Mar-10 84 14648 13970.3 13511.5872460848
Apr-10 85 15697 14148.1 13738.8697968678
May-10 86 16653 13936.7 14130.4958374943
Jun-10 87 15411 14389.2 14634.9966699954
Jul-10 88 13534 14914.2 14790.1973359963
Aug-10 89 12454 14631.7 14538.9578687971
Sep-10 90 16300 14097.5 14121.9662950377
Oct-10 91 23378 14567.1 14557.5730360301
Nov-10 92 16975 15753.2 16321.6584288241
Dec-10 93 15135 15858.2 16452.3267430593
Jan-11 94 19430 16018.5 16188.8613944474
Feb-11 95 17534 16496.7 16837.0891155579
Mar-11 96 17822 16680.4 16976.4712924464
Apr-11 97 17740 16797.3 17145.5770339571
May-11 98 17952 17030.2 17264.4616271657
Jun-11 99 21552 17472 17401.9693017325
Jul-11 100 15699 18381.8 18231.975441386
Aug-11 101 15059 18321.7 17725.3803531088
Sep-11 102 23508 17489.8 17192.1042824871
Oct-11 103 30519 18143.1 18455.2834259897
Nov-11 104 16175 19681.5 20868.0267407917
Dec-11 105 15315 19356 19929.4213926334
Jan-12 106 17950 19134.1 19006.5371141067
Feb-12 107 13534 19146.9 18795.2296912854
Mar-12 108 15054 18726.3 17742.9837530283
Apr-12 109 18436.5
May-12 110 18090.3333333333
Jun-12 111 18389.25
Jul-12 112 18865
Aug-12 113 18091.1666666667
Sep-12 114 15605.6
Oct-12 115 15463.25
Nov-12 116 15512.6666666667
Dec-12 117 14294
Jan-13 118 15054
Feb-13 119 #DIV/0!
Mar-13 120 #DIV/0!
error(dt-ft) exp.mth error (dt-ft) mean square error(MSE) Absolute value of error
-6603.6574074074
-5375.9259259259
-4046.7407407407
-3960.3925925926
-3432.3140740741
-679.8512592593
2308.1189925926
-118.5048059259
-2061.8038447408
-600.4430757926
-1.3544606341 937.2 878343.84 937.2
2697.9164314927 3467.4 12022862.76 3467.4
-434.6668548058 426.4 181816.96 426.4
-7.7334838446 603.1 363729.61 603.1
2028.8132129243 2368.5 5609792.25 2368.5
-2245.9494296606 -2000 4000000 2000
-1489.7595437285 -1599 2556801 1599
1121.1923650172 1062.5 1128906.25 1062.5
4721.9538920138 4808.2 23118787.24 4808.2
1050.563113611 1422.7 2024075.29 1422.7
-1756.5495091112 -1455.2 2117607.04 1455.2
-116.2396072889 -139.5 19460.25 139.5
-7.9916858312 113.2 12814.24 113.2
1041.6066513351 1061.1 1125933.21 1061.1
321.2853210681 378.2 143035.24 378.2
878.0282568544 1083 1172889 1083
2012.4226054836 2027.8 4111972.84 2027.8
-1198.0619156132 -1245.7 1551768.49 1245.7
-788.4495324905 -1029.1 1059046.81 1029.1
1286.2403740076 1300 1690000 1300
5912.9922992061 6131.7 37597744.89 6131.7
173.3938393649 774.3 599540.489999999 774.3
-2086.2849285081 -1666.5 2777222.25 1666.5
393.9720571935 411.7 169496.890000001 411.7
-475.8223542452 -465.6 216783.36 465.6
431.3421166038 288 82944 288
1825.0736932831 1690.5 2857790.25 1690.5
397.0589546265 533 284089 533
2734.6471637012 2681 7187761 2681
-786.2822690391 -786.7 618896.890000001 786.7
-1964.0258152313 -2126.3 4521151.69 2126.3
1960.779347815 2023 4092529 2023
5903.623478252 6166.4 38024488.96 6166.4
-806.1012173984 -210.2 44184.0400000003 210.2
-2189.8809739187 -1843.6 3398860.96 1843.6
-75.904779135 -180.6 32616.3600000001 180.6
-1678.723823308 -1898 3602404 1898
-1512.9790586464 -1857.6 3450677.76 1857.6
-159.3832469171 -685.5 469910.25 685.5
-757.5065975337 -1057.8 1118940.84 1057.8
1818.9947219731 1390.5 1933490.25 1390.5
-1779.8042224216 -2197.2 4827687.84 2197.2
-1991.8433779373 -2441.2 5959457.44 2441.2
1071.5252976502 1038.1 1077651.61 1038.1
4437.2202381202 4613 21279769 4613
161.7761904961 707.4 500414.76 707.4
-1966.5790476031 -1399.8 1959440.04 1399.8
-258.2632380825 -48.2 2323.2400000001 48.2
-1479.610590466 -1433.1 2053775.61 1433.1
153.3115276272 24.4 595.36 24.4
992.6492221018 818.2 669451.240000001 818.2
1803.1193776814 1906.5 3634742.25 1906.5
4188.4955021451 4307.4 18553694.76 4307.4
-2007.2035982839 -1727.1 2982874.41 1727.1
-905.7628786271 -901.3 812341.689999999 901.3
-198.6103029017 38.5 1482.25 38.5
4334.1117576787 4553.9 20738005.21 4553.9
-3372.7105938571 -2922.6 8541590.76 2922.6
-3800.1684750857 -3845.6 14788639.36 3845.6
-460.1347800685 -1103.7 1218153.69 1103.7
-1319.1078240548 -2017.1 4068692.41 2017.1
1066.7137407561 324.6 105365.16 324.6
1526.3709926049 1106 1223236 1106
2809.0967940839 3009.7 9058294.09 3009.7
7188.2774352671 7571.8 57332155.24 7571.8
67.6219482137 1085.8 1178961.64 1085.8
-1912.902441429 -1063.3 1130606.89 1063.3
4667.6780468568 5598.6 31344321.96 5598.6
5171.1424374854 6195.7 38386698.49 6195.7
-2055.0860500117 -1090.1 1188318.01 1090.1
-1731.0688400093 -1393.7 1942399.69 1393.7
3023.1449279925 2711.3 7351147.69 2711.3
25.515942394 -213.3 45496.8899999997 213.3
1136.4127539152 677.7 459277.290000001 677.7
1958.1302031322 1548.9 2399091.21 1548.9
2522.5041625057 2716.3 7378285.69 2716.3
776.0033300046 1021.8 1044075.24 1021.8
-1256.1973359963 -1380.2 1904952.04 1380.2
-2084.9578687971 -2177.7 4742377.29 2177.7
 2178.0337049624 2202.5 4851006.25 2202.5
8820.4269639699 8810.9 77631958.81 8810.9
653.3415711759 1221.8 1492795.24 1221.8
-1317.3267430593 -723.2 523018.240000001 723.2
3241.1386055526 3411.5 11638332.25 3411.5
696.9108844421 1037.3 1075991.29 1037.3
845.5287075536 1141.6 1303250.56 1141.6
594.4229660429 942.7 888683.290000001 942.7
687.5383728343 921.8 849715.239999999 921.8
4150.0306982675 4080 16646400 4080
-2532.975441386 -2682.8 7197415.84 2682.8
-2666.3803531088 -3262.7 10645211.29 3262.7
6315.8957175129 6018.2 36218731.24 6018.2
12063.7165740103 12375.9 153162900.81 12375.9
-4693.0267407917 -3506.5 12295542.25 3506.5
-4614.4213926334 -4041 16329681 4041
-1056.5371141067 -1184.1 1402092.81 1184.1
-5261.2296912854 -5612.9 31504646.41 5612.9
-2688.9837530283 -3672.3 13485787.29 3672.3

MSE MAD
8765307.84693877 2134.4571428572
Mean absoulte dev(mad) MAPE

9.5632653061 14.67585343
35.3816326531 38.16620804
4.3510204082 6.568083795
6.1540816327 8.827576112
24.1683673469 26.71140183
20.4081632653 40.0160064
16.3163265306 30.14137606
10.8418367347 13.94723024
49.0632653061 42.01870139
14.5173469388 16.32285452
14.8489795918 23.78166367
1.4234693878 1.883099352
1.1551020408 1.51074336
10.8275510204 12.42360379
3.8591836735 4.71042471
11.0510204082 12.52023121
20.6918367347 20.35943775
12.7112244898 17.41750559
10.5010204082 14.05490303
13.2653061224 14.07078688
62.5683673469 43.41641294
7.9010204082 8.094292285
17.0051020408 22.70126686
4.2010204082 4.377924288
4.7510204082 5.405781958
2.9387755102 3.055702918
17.25 15.50206327
5.4387755102 5.415565942
27.3571428571 21.86964679
8.0275510204 8.4728056
21.6969387755 26.74591195
20.6428571429 17.61888173
62.9224489796 38.98590125
2.1448979592 2.043157076
 18.812244898 21.08658355
1.8428571429 1.733371725
19.3673469388 21.56573117
18.9551020408 21.52241919
6.9948979592 7.08014873
10.793877551 11.68581529
14.1887755102 12.11553542
22.4204081633 26.65857802
24.9102040816 31.81131092
10.5928571429 10.04062288
47.0714285714 33.14174869
7.2183673469 6.717310797
14.2836734694 16.5951393
0.4918367347 0.494358974
14.6234693878 16.90574496
0.2489795918 0.248624414
8.3489795918 7.658180457
19.4540816327 16.3046267
43.9530612245 29.8317058
17.6234693878 19.01883053
9.1969387755 9.214804212
0.3928571429 0.373532551
46.4683673469 30.76959459
29.8224489796 36.7160804
39.2408163265 56.07465733
11.262244898 11.69421488
20.5826530612 23.76693767
3.312244898 3.059666321
11.2857142857 9.803226378
30.7112244898 23.38539239
77.2632653061 42.51193083
11.0795918367 8.952836412
10.85 10.46452121
57.1285714286 34.22336329
63.2214285714 34.81512699
11.1234693878 9.394174423
14.2214285714 12.10124164
27.6663265306 17.02543171
2.1765306122 1.576263671
6.9153061224 4.62657018
15.8051020408 9.867490603
27.7173469388 16.31117516
10.4265306122 6.630328986
14.0836734694 10.1980198
22.2214285714 17.48594829
 22.4744897959 13.51226994
89.9071428571 37.68885277
12.4673469388 7.197643594
7.3795918367 4.778328378
34.8112244898 17.55790015
10.5846938776 5.915934755
11.6489795918 6.405566154
9.6193877551 5.313979707
9.406122449 5.134803922
41.6326530612 18.93095768
27.3755102041 17.08898656
33.2928571429 21.66611329
61.4102040816 25.60064659
126.2846938776 40.55145975
35.7806122449 21.67851623
41.2346938776 26.38589618
12.0826530612 6.596657382
57.2744897959 41.47258756
37.4724489796 24.39418095

MAPE
17.19350209
Month Period Sales(Dt) Ft ERROR es. absolute value of error MSE MAD
37712 1 4698 4698 0 0 0 0
37742 2 4605 4698 -93 93 8649 0.94898
37773 3 4859 4679.4 179.6 179.6 32256.16 1.832653
37803 4 4136 4715.32 -579.32 579.32 335611.662 5.911429
37834 5 3872 4599.456 -727.456 727.456 529192.232 7.42302
37865 6 5938 4453.965 1484.0352 1484.0352 2202360.47 15.14322
37895 7 8790 4750.772 4039.22816 4039.22816 16315364.1 41.21661
37926 8 6825 5558.617 1266.38253 1266.382528 1603724.71 12.92227
37956 9 4858 5811.894 -953.893978 953.8939776 909913.721 9.733612
37987 10 5907 5621.115 285.884818 285.88481792 81730.1291 2.917192
38018 11 6386 5678.292 707.707854 707.707854336 500850.407 7.221509
38047 12 9085 5819.834 3265.16628 3265.1662834688 10661310.9 33.31802
38078 13 6492 6472.867 19.1330268 19.133026775 366.072714 0.195235
38108 14 6832 6476.694 355.306421 355.30642142 126242.653 3.625576
38139 15 8867 6547.755 2319.24514 2319.245137136 5378898.01 23.66577
38169 16 4998 7011.604 -2013.60389 2013.6038902912 4054600.63 20.54698
38200 17 5305 6608.883 -1303.88311 1303.883112233 1700111.17 13.30493
38231 18 7618 6348.106 1269.89351 1269.8935102137 1612629.53 12.9581
38261 19 11443 6602.085 4840.91481 4840.9148081709 23434456.2 49.39709
38292 20 8716 7570.268 1145.73185 1145.7318465367 1312701.46 11.69114
38322 21 6119 7799.415 -1680.41452 1680.4145227706 2823792.97 17.14709
38353 22 7408 7463.332 -55.3316182 55.3316182165 3061.58797 0.564608
38384 23 7493 7452.265 40.7347054 40.7347054268 1659.31623 0.41566
38412 24 8541 7460.412 1080.58776 1080.5877643415 1167669.92 11.02641
38443 25 8029 7676.53 352.470211 352.4702114732 124235.25 3.596635
38473 26 8650 7747.024 902.976169 902.9761691785 815365.962 9.214043
38504 27 9960 7927.619 2032.38094 2032.3809353428 4130572.27 20.73858
38534 28 7152 8334.095 -1182.09525 1182.0952517258 1397349.18 12.0622
38565 29 7322 8097.676 -775.676201 775.6762013806 601673.569 7.915063
38596 30 9239 7942.541 1296.45904 1296.4590388955 1680806.04 13.22917
38626 31 14123 8201.833 5921.16723 5921.1672311164 35060221.4 60.42007
38657 32 9566 9386.066 179.933785 179.9337848931 32376.1669 1.836059
38687 33 7341 9422.053 -2081.05297 2081.0529720855 4330781.47 21.23523
38718 34 9404 9005.842 398.157622 398.1576223316 158529.492 4.062833
38749 35 8613 9085.474 -472.473902 472.4739021347 223231.588 4.821162
38777 36 9425 8990.979 434.020878 434.0208782922 188374.123 4.428784
38808 37 10905 9077.783 1827.2167 1827.2167026338 3338720.88 18.64507
38838 38 9842 9443.227 398.773362 398.773362107 159020.194 4.069116
38869 39 12259 9522.981 2736.01869 2736.0186896856 7485798.27 27.91856
38899 40 9285 10070.19 -785.185048 785.1850482515 616515.56 8.012092
38930 41 7950 9913.148 -1963.14804 1963.1480386012 3853950.22 20.03212
38961 42 11482 9520.518 1961.48157 1961.481569119 3847409.95 20.01512
38991 43 15817 9912.815 5904.18526 5904.1852552952 34859403.5 60.24679
39022 44 10288 11093.65 -805.651796 805.6517957638 649074.816 8.220937
39052 45 8743 10932.52 -2189.52144 2189.5214366111 4794004.12 22.34206
39083 46 10419 10494.62 -75.6171493 75.6171492888 5717.95327 0.771604
39114 47 8801 10479.49 -1678.49372 1678.4937194311 2817341.17 17.12749
39142 48 8631 10143.79 -1512.79498 1512.7949755449 2288548.64 15.43668
39173 49 9682 9841.236 -159.23598 159.2359804359 25356.0975 1.624857
39203 50 9052 9809.389 -757.388784 757.3887843487 573637.771 7.728457
39234 51 11477 9657.911 1819.08897 1819.088972521 3309084.69 18.56213
39264 52 8242 10021.73 -1779.72882 1779.7288219832 3167434.68 18.1605
39295 53 7674 9665.783 -1991.78306 1991.7830575866 3967199.75 20.32432
39326 54 10339 9267.426 1071.57355 1071.5735539308 1148269.88 10.93442
39356 55 13919 9481.741 4437.25884 4437.2588431446 19689266 45.27815
39387 56 10531 10369.19 161.807075 161.8070745157 26181.5294 1.651093
39417 57 8435 10401.55 -1966.55434 1966.5543403875 3867335.97 20.06688
39448 58 9750 10008.24 -258.243472 258.24347231 66689.691 2.635137
39479 59 8477 9956.595 -1479.59478 1479.594777848 2189200.71 15.09791
39508 60 9814 9660.676 153.324178 153.3241777216 23508.3035 1.564532
39539 61 10684 9691.341 992.659342 992.6593421773 985372.57 10.12918
39569 62 11693 9889.873 1803.12747 1803.1274737418 3251268.69 18.39926
39600 63 14439 10250.5 4188.50198 4188.5019789935 17543548.8 42.73982
39630 64 9081 11088.2 -2007.19842 2007.1984168052 4028845.48 20.48162
39661 65 9781 10686.76 -905.758733 905.7587334442 820398.883 9.242436
39692 66 10307 10505.61 -198.606987 198.6069867553 39444.7352 2.026602
39722 67 14800 10465.89 4334.11441 4334.1144105957 18784547.7 44.22566
39753 68 7960 11332.71 -3372.70847 3372.7084715234 11375162.4 34.41539
39783 69 6858 10658.17 -3800.16678 3800.1667772187 14441267.5 38.77721
39814 70 9438 9898.133 -460.133422 460.133421775 211722.766 4.695239
39845 71 8487 9806.107 -1319.10674 1319.10673742 1740042.58 13.46027
39873 72 10609 9542.285 1066.71461 1066.714610064 1137880.06 10.88484
39904 73 11282 9755.628 1526.37169 1526.3716880512 2329810.53 15.57522
39934 74 12870 10060.9 2809.09735 2809.097350441 7891027.92 28.66426
39965 75 17811 10622.72 7188.27788 7188.2778803528 51671338.9 73.34977
39995 76 12128 12060.38 67.6223043 67.6223042822 4572.77604 0.690024
40026 77 10161 12073.9 -1912.90216 1912.9021565742 3659194.66 19.51941
40057 78 16359 11691.32 4667.67827 4667.6782747406 21787220.5 47.62937
40087 79 17796 12624.86 5171.14262 5171.1426197925 26740716 52.76676
40118 80 11604 13659.09 -2055.0859 2055.085904166 4223378.07 20.97026
40148 81 11517 13248.07 -1731.06872 1731.0687233328 2996598.92 17.66397
40179 82 15925 12901.85 3023.14502 3023.1450213338 9139405.82 30.84842
40210 83 13532 13506.48 25.5160171 25.516017067 651.067127 0.260368
40238 84 14648 13511.59 1136.41281 1136.4128136536 1291434.08 11.59605
40269 85 15697 13738.87 1958.13025 1958.1302509229 3834274.08 19.98092
40299 86 16653 14130.5 2522.5042 2522.5042007383 6363027.44 25.73984
40330 87 15411 14635 776.003361 776.0033605906 602181.216 7.918402
40360 88 13534 14790.2 -1256.19731 1256.1973115275 1578031.69 12.81834
40391 89 12454 14538.96 -2084.95785 2084.957849222 4347049.23 21.27508
40422 90 16300 14121.97 2178.03372 2178.0337206224 4743830.89 22.22483
40452 91 23378 14557.57 8820.42698 8820.4269764979 77799932 90.00436
40483 92 16975 16321.66 653.341581 653.3415811983 426855.222 6.666751
40513 93 15135 16452.33 -1317.32674 1317.3267350413 1735349.73 13.44211
40544 94 19430 16188.86 3241.13861 3241.1386119669 10504979.5 33.07284
40575 95 17534 16837.09 696.91089 696.9108895735 485684.788 7.111336
40603 96 17822 16976.47 845.528712 845.5287116588 714918.802 8.627844
40634 97 17740 17145.58 594.422969 594.4229693271 353338.666 6.065541
40664 98 17952 17264.46 687.538375 687.5383754617 472709.018 7.015698
40695 99 21552 17401.97 4150.0307 4150.0307003693 17222754.8 42.34725
40725 100 15699 18231.98 -2532.97544 2532.9754397046 6415964.58 25.84669
40756 101 15059 17725.38 -2666.38035 2666.3803517636 7109584.18 27.20796
40787 102 23508 17192.1 6315.89572 6315.8957185891 39890538.7 64.44792
40817 103 30519 18455.28 12063.7166 12063.7165748713 145533258 123.0991
40848 104 16175 20868.03 -4693.02674 4693.026740103 22024500 47.88803
40878 105 15315 19929.42 -4614.42139 4614.4213920824 21292884.8 47.08593
40909 106 17950 19006.54 -1056.53711 1056.5371136659 1116270.67 10.78099
40940 107 13534 18795.23 -5261.22969 5261.2296909327 27680537.9 53.68602
40969 108 15054 17742.98 -2688.98375 2688.9837527462 7230633.62 27.43861
41000 109
41030 110 mse mad
41061 111 7795215.56 1972.665
41091 112
41122 113
41153 114
41183 115
41214 116
41244 117
41275 118
41306 119
41334 120
MAPE
0
2.019544
3.696234
14.00677
18.7876
24.99217
45.95254
18.55506
19.63553
4.839763
11.08218
35.94019
0.294717
5.200621
26.15592
40.28819
24.57838
16.66964
42.3046
13.14516
27.46224
0.746917
0.543637
12.65177
4.389964
10.43903
20.40543
16.52818
10.59377
14.03246
41.9257
1.880972
28.34836
4.233918
5.48559
4.604996
16.75577
4.051751
22.31845
8.456489
24.69369
17.0831
37.3281
7.830986
25.04314
0.725762
19.07163
17.52746
1.64466
8.367088
15.84986
21.59341
25.95495
10.36438
31.87915
1.536483
23.31422
2.648651
17.45423
1.562301
9.291083
15.42057
29.00826
22.10328
9.26039
1.926914
29.28456
42.37071
55.41217
4.875328
15.54267
10.05481
13.52927
21.82671
40.35864
0.557572
18.82592
28.53278
29.05789
17.71015
15.03055
18.98364
0.188561
7.758143
12.47455
15.14745
5.035386
9.281789
16.74127
13.36217
37.7296
3.848846
8.703844
16.6811
3.974626
4.744298
3.35075
3.829871
19.2559
16.13463
17.70622
26.86701
39.52854
29.01408
30.13008
5.886001
38.87417
17.86225

mape
16.56063
X Y X*Y X*X Ft Et t
1 26 26 1 25.95238 0.047619 1
2 28 56 4 27.6381 0.361905 1
3 29 87 9 29.32381 -0.32381 2
4 31 124 16 31.00952 -0.00952 3
5 32 160 25 32.69524 -0.69524 4
6 35 210 36 34.38095 0.619048 5
663 91 6

AVG X= 3.5 12.25

AVG Y= 30.16667

b 1.685714
a= 24.26667
Dt Ft Lt Tt Et
24.26667 1.685714 0
26 25.95238 20.7619 0.128571 0.047619
28 20.89048 21.91238 0.435143 7.109524
29 22.34752 23.47802 0.774291 6.652476
31 24.25231 25.20185 1.059153 6.74769
32 26.261 27.2088 1.343493 5.738999
35