Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

/ /

JU L 28,2016 @ 08:37 A M 7,200 VIEW S The Little Black Book of Billionaire Secrets

M arshallShepherd,
CO N TRIBU TO R
Iw rite aboutw eather and clim ate
related topics (and study them too)
FU LL BIO
O pinions expressed by Forbes
Contributors are their ow n.

The National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) announced that major

changes are coming to three of
SH ARE
its weather prediction models.
To the weather community and
enthusiasts this is a big deal.
However these changes also
have impacts for a society
which depends on weather
forecasts for day-to-day
operations, agriculture,
aviation, national security,
emergency response and more.

Improved resolution of newly announced NOAA

weather forecast model. Courtesy of NOAA.
TREN D IN G

1 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

It is well known that the

European model consistently
has outperformed the United
States model. The NOAA GFS
model is still a world-class
model and often outperforms
the European model in certain
cases as I explained in Forbes.
Social media can make you
think there is "Model World
War 3," but there is actually
quite a bit of collaboration
between NOAA and the
European center. The "Euro"
model assimilates quite a bit of
data from the U.S. The
aforementioned Forbes article
also explains the different
approaches and why the
European model has managed
to stay ahead.

I know, I know a recent article

showed that the GFS is 4th in
performance based on anomaly
correlation scores. It is
important to understand that
1st to 4th is not a "top Indy car
racer versus me on my bicycle"
gap. The difference between 1st
and 4th is relative. The
500-hPa anomaly correlation,
which quantifies the skill of the
500-hPa geopotential height
forecast, is long-standing too. It
measures correlation of
anomalies of specific forecasts
and values that verify with a
given reference (e.g.
climatological
values). My former Florida

2 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

State University professor and

modeling pioneer, Dr. T.N.
Krishnamurti, published a
paper discussing the history of
using this metric for assessing
model performance. By now
you may be saying, "reel it in
Dr. Shepherd this is
meteorological jargon." Look at
it this way, the 500-hPa map
(some may be more familiar
with 500 millibars (mb) rather
than 500 hectoPascal) reveals
the location of troughs of low
pressure and ridges of high
pressure. It shows
meteorological information
from weather balloons,
satellites and other datasets. At
given points the "height" where
atmospheric pressure is 500
hPa is plotted then contoured.
In the map below that level is
found at 5,930 meters near
Atlanta, Georgia but at 5,790
meters just north of Minnesota.
This produces a snapshot of the
atmospheric fluid's wave,
temperature, jet stream and
vorticity patterns governing
sensible weather.

Ok, let's get to model updates.

3 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

500 hPa (mb) chart. Source: NOAA

Global Forecast System

(GFS): In a press release this
week NOAA announced that it
would be developing a new
global weather model to replace
the current GFS model. It will
also be called the GFS and
likely arrives in 2019. The
following quote from press
release cites National Weather
Service Director Dr. Louis
Uccellini,

Recom m ended by Forbes

Using our powerful

supercomputers, our new
dynamic core which drives the
model, and the newest modeling
techniques, we are poised to
develop and run a more
accurate and reliable global
model that is used as a basis for
all weather forecasts in the
U.S., said Louis W. Uccellini,
director, NOAAs National
Weather Service......The new
dynamic core, Finite-Volume on
a Cubed-Sphere (FV3), was
developed by NOAAs
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory in Princeton, New

4 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

Jersey. The FV3 core brings a

new level of accuracy and
numeric efficiency to the
models representation of
atmospheric processes such as
air motions. This makes possible
simulations of clouds and
storms, at resolutions not yet
42900 39899
used in an operational global
model.

Model resolution is very

important. Think cell phone
camera. It has a certain number
of mega-pixels. More
mega-pixels mean greater
picture resolution. In weather
modeling finer resolution (in
time or space) means that you
can resolve weather processes
that may be smeared out or not
captured at coarser resolution.
For example, if the model has
grid spacing every 15 km, it is
not going to "resolve" a
cumulus cloud.

Dr. Brian Etherton of NOAA's

Earth System Research
Laboratory adds some insight
on resolution. He told me in an
email,

the reason GFS as it is now

cannot go to a higher resolution
is its grid. The
latitude/longitude grid results in
a large number of gridpoints in
the polar regions. FV3, being a
cubed sphere, can scale better.

NOAA's goals for FV3 are,

a unified system to improve

5 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

forecast accuracy beyond 8 to 10

days, better model forecasts of
hurricane track and intensity,
and the extension of weather
forecasting through 14 days and
for extreme events, 3 to 4 weeks
in advance.

American Meteorological
Society President Dr. Fred
Carr, a renowned expert in this
subject and former head of
University of Oklahoma's great
Meteorology department told
me in an email,

NOAA NCEPs Modeling

Advisory Committee was asked
by the head of the National
Weather Service to look at the
various processes on the table.
The overwhelming majority of
the committee supported the
decision to select GFDLs FV3
model for the next GFS dynamic
core. However, it is very
important that
NCEP/NWS/NOAA work with
the external modeling
community to create a global
community model to which all
can contribute.

RAP and HRRR: In a more

low-key announcement NOAA
also announced updates to
the Rapid Refresh (RAP) and
the High-Resolution Rapid
Refresh (HRRR) Analysis and
Forecast System. Some of the
key changes, effective in
August, according to NOAA
include,

...expanded computational (for

6 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

RAP) domain which will now

include Hawaii.......Both the RAP
and HRRR will use an updated
version of the Gridpoint
Statistical Interpolation (GSI)
analysis code. Refinements were
made to the GSI to improve the
assimilation of surface
observations, soil moisture
adjustment, and three-
dimensional cloud and
precipitation hydrometeors. In
addition, the HRRR will start
using the ensemble/hybrid data
assimilation....Other analysis
changes include: (Assimilating
radial wind and mesonet
data, Applying PBL-based
pseudo-innovations for 2-meter
temperature, Changing the
cloud-hydrometeor assimilation
to avoid METAR-based cloud
building when satellite data
shows clear skies at all times of
day, and Introducing direct use
of 2-meter temperature and dew
point model diagnostics in the
GSI.

I am sure there will be

supporters and critics to the
new GFS. I will let them have
those scholarly discussions.
These discussions and the
constant push by the Europeans
and now private sector force
everyone to improve. We
benefit in the end.

Com m ent on this story

Print Report Reprints

Corrections & Perm issions

7 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

RELATED TOPICS

TOP TEE

ARC FAS

HAN NOA

From the Web Ads by Revcontent

People Are Cancelling Greece : New Diabetes That's How You Find
Their Netflix Account Discovery Leaves Super Cheap Flights!
Because Of This Site Doctors Speechless SAVE70.CO M
H O W FIN AN CE DAILY TYPE 2 D IABETES D ESTRO YER

The Diabetes Generate A High-Quality Join Revcontent To

Breakthrough Your User Experience with Increase User
Doctor Won't Tell You Revcontent Engagement and Reach
D IABETES D ESTRO YER REVCO N TEN T REVCO N TEN T

Google AMP Builds a Patch.com Chooses

Better User Experience Revcontent for Superior
on Mobile Ad Quality and User
AD O TAS BLO O M BERG .CO M

8 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

9 10 11-Dec-16 20:31
Major Changes For 3 U.S. Weather Models Are Coming http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2016/07/28/major-chan...

10 10 11-Dec-16 20:31