412-2 Sketch a Sgure and fll in the probabilities of exch of the disjoint sets. Let A= {Insure more than one car}, P(A) = 0.85- ot B= {insure a sports ear}, P(B) = 0:23. Let C = {insure exactly one car}, P(C) = 0.5: itis also given thet P(AMB) = 0.17. Since P(ANC) = 051% follows that P(AN BNC) =O.17. Thus P(A BNC!) = 006 and P(A‘ BIC) = 0.08. Loa (a) $= (HHBH, HHET, HHTH, HTHH, PHM HHTY, KTTH, TTHE, Mita THES, THAT, HUTT, THTT, TTHT, TTT, TTTT} 31/26, (bw) 4/26, (¥) 4/36, (wi) 9/26, (vil) 4/96 () 6) 5/16, (8) 0, G8) 1.26 (a) 1/6; (6) P(B) <1 PCB) = 1- PA) = 8/6: (©) (AUB) = Ps) =1 8 (a) P(AUB)=0.4+05-03=06; (b) (An B’)u(AnB) P(ANB') + P(ANB) PAN B') +03 03; () P(a'UB!) = PUAN BY] 1.2-10 Let A ={lab work done}, B ={roferval to a specialist}, P(A) = 0.41, P(B) = 0.53, P([AU By’) = 0.21. ~P(AnB)=1-08=07. P(AUB) P(A) + P(B) ~ P(ANB) 0.79 0.41 + 0.53 - P(ANB) P(ANB) = 530.79 = 0.15. 1212 AUBUC P(AUBUC) Au(BUC) Plas BiBuo)” Plan audi + P(B) + P(C) — P(BNC) — PAN B)uU(ANC)) P(A) + P(B) + P(G)~ Pt - - R 2) PIB ) = P(BNC) ~ P(ANB)— P(ANC) 12-14 (a) 1/3; (b) 2/3; (€) 0; (A) 1/2. 1.216 (a) S= {(1,2),(1,3),(1,4), (1,5), (2,3); (2,4), (2,5) (b) (@) 1/10; (ii) 5/20. SEE Ate 4.2.20 Note that the respective probabllas are po, pi = pa = poll co Po zi 0 2 =1 1—po-p) 18-2 (4)(5)(@) = 24. 18-4 (a) (4)(5)(2) = 40; (b) (2)(2)(2) = 8, 1.36 (a) «() = 80; (b) 4(2°) = 256;.8-10 $={ HHH, HHCH, HCHH, CHHH, HHCCH, HCHCH, CHHCH, HCCHE, CHCHH, CCHHH, CCC, CCHO, CHCC, HCCC, CCHHC, CHCHC, HCCHC, CHHCC, HCHCC, HHCCC } so there are 20 possibilities. 18-12 3-9-2)? = 36,864. ae (7) 400) = wea e r(n—-1)!_ nt 7 An 16 0 = a-w-E (ero =yor() m= (+1 = x (Joror- ys (): 218 Crataam) = CCIE) Cs nl (n-m)! rales my)! mala =m = 12)! (a= m=na)l (nm =m ~ ngl(n =m — Ma — Ma nglOT al alah (3) a\\_6 102,486 : 3-20 (a) SS = ee agg = 02017; 9 OQEQQOO® JEN oWoe 695 (®) C) Sane 5a — 0.00022. 9 a8 vaca ($9) = sons, 4 Conditional Probability oa 1456" 302 a 649 © a 14-2 (a) (b) (d) The proportion of women who favor a gun law is greater than the proportion of men who favor a gun law.12 1 14-4 (a) P(HH) = Rai 13°13 13 () PURO) = 55+ = ag7 (c) P(Non-Ace Heart, Ace) + P(Ace of Hearts, Non-Heart Ace) a4 od “52°51 "521 52-61 52 1.46 Let A = {3 or 4 kings}, B = {2, 3, or 4 kings}. P(ANB) _ N(A) P(AlB) PUB) ~ NB) 14-8 Let H ={died from heart disease}; P ={at least one parent had heart disease}. Por py = NOP) TAH a) eee 35 7g = 94008, (@) Draw second. ‘The probability of winning in 1 — 0.4605 = 0.5306, oo (?) 5 To) 5 5 1aetd (a) P(4) = 2.51, 8049 48 47 8,808,975 (b) P(A’) =1— P(A) = 0.25850, L412 = 0.74141; 52°52" 82°52 52 G2 ~ 11,881,376 14-16 (a) Tt docan’t matier because P(B,) = Zh, P(Bs) = 2, PCBs) # 2 (b) P(B) = eo ‘on each draw. 24 2 5 1418 5-5 71.4-20 (a) P(A:) = 80/100; (b) P(4s 7 Bs) = 9/100; (c) P(42U Bs) = 41/100 + 28/100 — 9/100 = 60/100; (@) P(A:| Bs) = 11/41; (©) PCB: | As) = 13/29, 5 Independent Events 15-2 (a) P(ANB) = P(A)P(B) = (0.3)(0.6) = 0.18; P(AUB) = P(A)+P(B)—-P(ANB) 0.3 + 0.6 — 0.18 0.72 (&) P(ajay = 2408) PB) Lubed Proof of (b): P(A'N.B) P(B)P(A'|B) P(B)[ — P(A|B)) P(B)|l — P(A)) P(B)P(A'). PUAUBY) 1-P(AUB) 1 ~ P(A) ~ P(B) + P(ANB) 1 — P(A) ~ P(B) + P(A)P(B) (.— P(A) — PCB) = P(A)P(B') PIANBaO] P(A)P(B)P(C) P(A)P(B NC), Proof of (¢): P(a’NB') 15-6 P[AN(BN0)) PIAN(BUO)] = PAN B)u(ANc)| Plan 8) + P(ANC)~ P(AN BNC) P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(C) = P(A)P(B)P(C) Bee) P(C)-P(BNC) (A)P(BUC) Pla'n(Bno)} (A'NO'nB) (B)[P(A’ AC’) B) (BY[l ~ P(AUC| BY (B)IL— P(AVO)) (B)P((AUCY'} (B)P(A'NC’) (B)P(ANP(C') (A')P(B)P(C') (A) PBNC) vouneunng PIA'NB'NC} P(AUBUCY] = P(AUBUC) ~ P(B) ~ P(G) + P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(C)+ P(B)P(C) — PA)P(B)P(C) fh PEA) - P(BYL — P(O)] P(ANP(B)P(C). u1.5-10 (a) ) (e) 1.5-12 (a) () (c) @) ay 15-14 (a) 1— (0.4)° = 1 ~ 0.064 = 0.936; (b) 1 ~ (0.4)8 = 1 ~ 0.00065536 = 99934464, 1.5-16 (a) (b) g “1.5.18 (a) 7; (©) (1/297; (6) 88; (@) = 1/9,223,372,036,854,775,808. 15-20 _n 6 9 w 15 ) 00051 016580 ——0.0480—«O.04T () 0.6819 0.6371 0.6321 (0.8321 (©) Very little when n > 15, sampling with replacement, ‘Very little when n > 10, sampling without replacement. (@) Convergence is faster when sampling with replacement, 1.6 Bayes's Theorem 16-2 (a) P(G) = P(AnG)+P(BNG) (A)P(G| A) + P(B)P(G| B) = (0.40)(0.85) + (0.60)(0.75) = 0.79; P(ANG) PO) (be) P(AIG) =1.6-4 Let event B denote an accident and let Ar be the event that age of the driver is 16-25. Then (0.1)(0.08) PUB) = Ew DEy + WSHNC02) + (0.20)(0.0) + (OLB 50 50 179. 50+ 110 +60+60 ~ 280 1.6-6 Let B be the event that the policyholder dies. Let Ar, A2, 4s bo the events that the deceased is standard, preferred and ultra-preferred, respectively. Then a (60}(0.01) POE) = EDTA) + 0.30)0.008) + (O.I0}(0.007) 60 80 _ ase = app aeee = or = 759 % PUda|B) = 7 0.268; P(4g|B) = 2 =oa0r7, -d- 1.6-8 Let A be the event that the DVD player is under werronty. a (0.49)(0.10) PORLIAY = G Zoy(atay + (@.30){0.08) + (0.20)(0.08) + (0.10) 40 40 ~ WET orD ~ 6 7 OO 16 PBA) = B 0238; P(Bs|4) = © = 0.095; ela) = B= 0005; P(Bs|A) = 2 = 0.082, faleniseriad<) 16-10 (a) P(AD) = (0.02)(0.92) + (0.98)(0.08) = 0.0184 40.0490 = 0.0674; 0.0190 ois (b) POV|AD) = SSB ora; P(A|AD) = BREE = 0.279; ip) = (0.989(0.98) 9810 7 (©) POVIND) = aayO 98) + (0.08y(0.95) ~ T9370 ~ 0998: PALND) = 0.002, (A) Yes, particularly those in part (b) 1.6-12 Let D = {has the disease}, DP =(detects presence of disease}. Then PWNDP) P(DP) P(D): P(DP|D) P(D)- P(DP|D) + P(D)- P(DP|D) (0.005)(0.90) {(©-005)(0.90) + (0.995}(0.02) 0.0046 0.0045 S.004s +0.198 ~ 0.0244 P(D|DP) = = 0.1844,{defective roll} Then PUND) P(D) a PU) P(D|T) PU) P(N) + PUN) PDT) = (0.60)(0.08) * ([.o0)(0.03) + (@.40)(0.01) 0.018 _ 0.018 * G01s+ 0.004 ~ 0.022 ~ ee