PP 7767/09/2010(025354)

马来西亚 技术分析
RHB Research
Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M

每周技术观点 2010 年 8 月 23 日
MARKET DATELINE

原产品和外汇
原产品看来将出现更多卖压…

主要原产品的图表表现：

轻质原油期货 Light Sweet Crude Oil futures （原

图 1∶轻质原油期货（周线图）
油）

♦ 一 如 所 料 ， 美 国 轻 质 原 油 期 货 期 货 （ US Light Sweet
Crude oil）于上周进一步下调至上升趋势线（UTL）（即靠
近 73 美元）。

♦ 原油已连续划出第 2 根利淡阴烛，反映出本周将出现跟进卖
压动力。

♦ 从疲弱的动力指标看来，原油可能会在近日丢失 UTL。

♦ 若发生这种情况，它将会下探至 5 月所创下的 64.24 美元

低点和 60 美元关键支撑水平。

♦ 惟一如我们之前所强调，如果它能守在 UTL 以上，那么它将

会触发一轮技术反弹，以下探至 40 周移动平均线（即 77
美元）和 78 美元关口。

原棕油期货 Crude Palm Oil futures （原棕油）

图 2∶原棕油期货（周线图）

♦ 如 我 们 在 前 周 所 警 告 ， 若 原 棕 油 期 货 （ CPO ） 无 法 破 除
2,760 令吉阻力水平，这将会触发一轮显著的套利跌势。上
周，原棕油暴挫至 2,544 令吉。

♦ 在图表上，它划出一根巨大利淡阴烛，标志着近日的涨势已出
现利淡反转。

♦ 加上动力指标向下转低，原棕油甚至可能会在近日丢失位于
2,500 令吉重要扶持水平的 10 周和 40 周移动平均线。

♦ 一旦丢失这道关卡，这将会触发更多跌势至 2,200 令吉支撑

水平。

♦ 可是，假如它能在本周划出一根令人惊喜的利多反转蜡烛的
话，那么它将会发动一轮技术反弹，以在来周重新试叩
2,737 令吉全年新高和 2,760 令吉阻力水平。

请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露（ IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES）

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特定外汇的图表解读：

图 3∶令吉兑美元（周线图） 令吉兑美元 Ringgit （令吉）/ US$（美元）

♦ 在连续多周于 3.16 水平徘徊后，令吉兑美元汇率终于在上

周展开显著的向下走势，并一度写下 3.12 新低。

♦ 在 图 表 上 ， 它 纪 录 了 一 根 “ 看 跌 抱 线 型 态 ” （ bearish
engulfing），标志着令吉可能会在本周兑美元进一步走
强。

♦ 随着它以超过 27 个月的新高收盘，我们认为，令吉已准备
就绪在近期重新测试 2008 年 3 月所创下的 3.07 水平。

♦ 虽然图表中已“超买”的动力显示可能会出现技术反弹，但
它将不能轻易地破除 3.16 / 3.17 图表阻力区。

♦ 有鉴于此，我们继续看俏令吉兑美元的近期多头展望。

图 4∶日元兑美元（周线图） 日元兑美元 Japanese Yen （日元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 一如我们之前所指出，日元兑美元继续在上周于接近 85 的
下降趋势阻力线（DRL）徘徊。

♦ 虽然该汇率成功从 84.87 的每周低点回弹，但它仍处于 87

当前图表阻力水平以下。

♦ 我们认为，只要它一天未能破除这道关口，那么该汇率将继
续处于压力下。

♦ 因此，如果它维持在 87 水平以下，美元兑日元料将不会在
近期内发动任何显著的技术反弹。

♦ 相反地，一旦丢失 DRL（即 85），日元兑美元将进一步走

强至 79.8。

图 5∶欧元兑美元（周线图） 欧元兑美元 Euro Dollar （欧元）/ US$（美元）

♦ 在前周强力复苏后，欧元兑美元汇率继续在上周五往上坚
挺。

♦ 随 着 它 收 高 ， 该 汇 率 已 超 越 了 21 周 移 动 平 均 线 （ 即
0.78），至于短期动力指标也已转俏。

♦ 不过，该汇率以一根“上吊线”（hanging man），显示
它将在本周回调，以向下测试 21 周移动平均线和 0.77 关
卡。

♦ 至于较低的支撑水平则位于近日的 0.75 低点和 0.73 重要

水平。

♦ 除非它能企稳于 0.77 水平以上，否则我们认为，欧元有望

在来周恢复兑美元的复苏走势。

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 美元指数 US Dollar Index （DXY）
图 6∶美元指数（周线图）
♦ 一如我们在上周所指出，美元指数（DXY）无法突破 21 周
移动平均线（即 84）和 85 关键水平之间的阻力区。

♦ 其实，即使它在图表上记录一根小阳烛，该指数还是在上周
收平。

♦ 加上 14 周强弱指标持平，我们预计，位于 84 至 85 之间的
强大阻力区将会制止本周的升势。

♦ 有鉴于此，我们继续保持稍微看淡美元的中期展望。

♦ 关键支撑水平落在 81。一旦丢失这道关口，这将会触发更
多回调至 78。

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
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Technical recommendation framework for stocks and sectors are as follows: -

Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.

Technical Time Frame:

Immediate-term = short time frame within a contra period.
Short-term = moderate time frame within two to three contra periods. For tracking purposes, we refer to 10 trading days.
Medium-term = medium time frame usually refers to two to three weeks period. For tracking purposes, we refer to 20 trading days.

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