10/28/2017 Was the Extreme 2017 Hurricane Season Driven by Climate Change?

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WastheExtreme2017HurricaneSeasonDrivenbyClimate
Change?
Global warming already appears to be making hurricanes more intense

ByAnnieSneedonOctober26,2017

Credit:HadelProductionsGettyImages

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10/28/2017 Was the Extreme 2017 Hurricane Season Driven by Climate Change? - Scientic American

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Summer and fall 2017 saw an unusual string of record-breaking hurricanes pummel
the U.S. Gulf Coast, eastern seaboard, Puerto Rico and the Caribbean.

Hurricane Harvey brought unbelievable floods to Houston. Irma, one of the two
strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the northern Atlantic, wreaked havoc on
Florida and many Caribbean islands. Maria devastated Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands. The destruction begs the question: Has climate change influenced these
extreme events? Hurricanes can be difficult to decipher, but experts are gaining a
sense of what our warming world might mean for monster storms in the U.S. and
worldwide.

STORMINTENSITY

Many experts are confident that a warmer world will create stronger stormsand
already is doing so. Since 1981 the maximum wind speed of the most powerful
hurricanes has risen, according to research (pdf) by Jim Elsner, a climatologist at The
Florida State University. Thats because higher ocean heat provides more energy for
storms, fueling their intensity. Hurricane Patricia, in 2015, set the record at the time
for top wind speed215 miles per hourin the north Atlantic. The next year Winston
shattered records as the most intense cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere.

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10/28/2017 Was the Extreme 2017 Hurricane Season Driven by Climate Change? - Scientic American

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The dynamic between storms and warming oceans occurs in part because of the role
hurricanes play in our climate system: they rebalance Earths heat. The storms
remove heat from tropical oceans in the form of moisture and pump the heat up into
the atmosphere, where heat is redistributed and radiated out into space. In some
sense, hurricanes are a relief valve, explains Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist in
the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. From
the climate standpoint, you need to have some hurricanes to come along and cool the
ocean, to keep them at reasonable temperatures. No other phenomenon can play this
role.

FREQUENCY

How climate change will influence the frequency of hurricanes is less well
understood. Some experts predict a potential drop in overall numbers. In rebalancing
Earths heat, Trenberth says, one big hurricane can play the role of four smaller
hurricanes. Tom Knutson, a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administrations Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, says nearly
all models predict this effecttheyshow a decrease in the total number of hurricanes
in a warmer climate. Elsner notes, however, Theres still a lot of uncertainty on this
point.

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10/28/2017 Was the Extreme 2017 Hurricane Season Driven by Climate Change? - Scientic American

Both Trenberth and Knutson think the number of very intense storms may actually
grow. Some studies show that globally, we end up with more storms at the high end
at category 4 and 5, Trenberth says. The north Atlantic, in particular, may
experience this trend.Elsner is more hesitant; he says the frequency of the strongest
hurricanes is also controlled by the occurrence of ideal conditionsno wind shear
high in the atmosphere to tear storms apart from above, no land in their path to break
them up from below and no dry air to absorb some of their moisture. It is unknown
how or if these conditions will change, he says.

SIZEANDDURATION

Scientists are still unsure about how climate change will influence the physical
breadth and duration of hurricanes. In their modeling Knutson and his team have
found that the number of category 4 and 5 storm days could potentially increase
slightly by the late 21st century. Trenberth thinks higher ocean temperatures may
mean storms will become both bigger in size and last longer. He does note, though,
that these traits depend on how storm details are defined: For a storms breadth
across the ocean, for example, where are the boundaries drawn? Does duration
apply to its time as a specific hurricane category (4, 5) or as an overall tropical storm?

STORMSURGE

Scientists do agree climate change means higher storm surges are hitting coastlines.
This would happen even if hurricanes do not become stronger. Once you have a
higher baseline sea level, Knutson says, that's going to add to the water level
experienced during storm surges. If sea level is a half-meter higher, for example,
then a storm surge will be a half-meter higher than it would have been otherwise.

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10/28/2017 Was the Extreme 2017 Hurricane Season Driven by Climate Change? - Scientic American

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RAINFALL

Experts also expect that climate change may increase the intensity of hurricane
rainfall. The unprecedented, deep flooding in the Houston area certainly bears
witness to that idea. Warmer air holds more water vapor. For hurricanes, that can
lead to more efficiency; the rate at which rain falls out of the clouds increases, Elsner
says. Were seeing that in some of these storms. Knutson gives a number for this
phenomenon: Hurricane rainfall rate is projected to rise 7 percent for every degree
Celsius rise in tropical sea surface temperatures.

EXPANDINGREACH

Regions of the world that have not experienced hurricanes may in the future. As
oceans heat up, the cyclonic storms territory could enlarge. If a storm remains over
warm water, it can maintain a high intensity, Elsner says. If those warm waters are
expanding, then you can find these strong storms in [new] places. Trenberth agrees:
Witness Ophelia, which surprised Ireland and the U.K. in October.

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10/28/2017 Was the Extreme 2017 Hurricane Season Driven by Climate Change? - Scientic American

Even though scientists are investigating these potentially changing factors, they
caution that uncertainty remains for many of them. Hurricanes are particularly
challenging because they are such complex and relatively rare events. Not only is
there large variability but the reliable record is shortsatellite [tracking] began about
1970, Trenberth says. Plus, many other forces (pdf)such as weak wind shear and
low pressure at the sea surfaceinfluence this type of storm.

Knutson is less certain than others that it is possible to already see global warmings
influence on any of these factors in the record (except for higher storm surge due to
sea level rise). It is too early to say that we can detect this change already in the data,
and its clearly distinct from natural variability, Knutson says. That limits our
confidence in future projections.

But Elsner says the growing intensity of hurricanes is already evident in the record.
It has already been shown that the strongest hurricanes are getting stronger
worldwide, Elsner wrote in an e-mail to ScientificAmerican. Trenberth goes further.
The environment in which all such storms occur is warmer and moister, and we
know that this has effects, he notes. The evidence is that climate change is already
with us.

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