STA 408

TOPIC 1

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
RANDOM VARIABLE AND
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
Random variable is a variable that values are
determine by chance in the experiment.
Random variable can be classified into two:

i) Discrete random variable variable can take

on a countable number of values.
ii) Continuous random variable variable can
take any value between two specified values.
Probability describe on uncertainty and the
values range between 0% to 100% or in
proportion from 0 to 1.
Probability distribution is a distribution of the
probabilities associated with each of the values of
random variable.
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

The discussion will start with probability

distribution for the discrete random variable.
Discrete probability distributions are Binomial
and Poisson distributions.
Properties of discrete probability distribution:

a) 0 P(X x) 1

b) P(X x) = 1
EXAMPLE 1 (DISCRETE PROBABILITY
DISTRIBUTION)

Let X be the discrete variable the number of

heads obtained when three coins are tossed.
Show the probability distribution in a table and
show X is discrete random variable.

Solution:
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Definition:
1. A random experiment consists of n Bernoulli
trials such that:
The trials are independent

There are only two possible outcomes either

success or failure
The probability of success, p in each trials
remains constant.
2. P(success)= p and P(failure)= 1 p

3. Binomial distribution: X ~ Bin (n, p)

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION (CONT.)

EXAMPLE 2 (BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION)
A die is tossed five times consecutively.
What is the probability of getting two 3 in five
tossed?

Solution:
EXAMPLE 3 (BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION)
A coin is tossed five times.
a) What is the probability of getting 4 heads in five
tosses? (ans: 0.1563)
b) Find the probability of getting less than 2
heads. (ans: 0.1875)
c) Find the probability of getting more than or
equal to 4 heads. (ans: 0.1875)
Solution:
EXAMPLE 4 (BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION)
a) An integrated circuit manufacturer produces
wafers that contain 20 chips. Each chip has a
probability of 0.085 of not being placed correctly
on the wafer. Find the probability that a wafer
contains at least three incorrectly placed chips.
(ans: 0.2390)

Solution:
CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY
A cumulative binomial probability is the
probability that the binomial random variable
falls within a specified range either (less than or
equal) or (more than or equal).

The values can be obtained from cumulative

Binomial Probabilities table.
EXAMPLE 5 (CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY)
Suppose a Public Opinion reported that 5% of
Americans are afraid of being alone in a house at
night. If a random sample of 20 Americans are
selected, find these probabilities:

a) there are exactly 5 people in the sample who are

afraid of being alone at night. (ans: 0.0026)
b) at least three people in the sample who are
afraid of being alone at night. (ans: 0.0754)
Solution:
EXERCISE 1 (CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROBABILITY)

A university provides its staff with desktop

computers. The supplier obtained the computers
from manufacturer with a record of producing 3%
defective computers. If a sample of 50 computers
were inspected, what is the probability that there
will be
a) at most 2 defective computers?

b) between 1 to 4 defective computers?

c) 45 non-defective computers?

Solution:
EXAMPLE 6 (SUMMARY MEASURES)
A die is rolled 480 times. Find the mean, variance
and standard deviation of the number 2 that will
be rolled.

Solution:
EXERCISE 2 (SUMMARY MEASURES)
The probability that a freshman entering the
university will graduate after a-four year program
is 0.6.If 1000 freshman enroll at the university,
find the expected number of those who graduate.
Find the standard deviation of the number of
freshman who graduates. (ans: 600, 18.9737)
Solution:
POISSON DISTRIBUTION

POISSON DISTRIBUTION (CONT.)

EXAMPLE 7 (POISSON DISTRIBUTION)
The average number of customers arriving at a
restaurant during the lunch hour is four in five-
minute period. Find the probability that there will
be

a) Two customers arriving in a five-minute period.

(ans: 0.1465)
b) Two or three customers arriving in a five-
minute period. (ans: 0.3419)
c) Seven customers arriving in a ten-minute
period. (ans: 0.1396)
d) One customer arriving in 2.5 minute period. (ans:
0.2707)
EXAMPLE 8 (POISSON DISTRIBUTION)
The average number of cars sold by a company is 2
cars per day.
a) What is the probability that 3 cars will be sold on
Monday? (ans: 0.180)
b) What is the probability that 6 carswill be sold on
Monday and Tuesday? (ans: 0.1042)
CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY
A cumulative poisson probability is the
probability that the poisson random variable falls
within a specified range either (less than or
equal) or (more than or equal).

The values can be obtained from cumulative

Poisson Probabilities table.
EXAMPLE 9 (CUMULATIVE POISSON PROBABILITY)
The average number of customers arriving at a
restaurant during the lunch hour is four in five-minute
period. Find the probability that there will be

a) More than eight customers arriving in a fifteen-

minute period. (ans: 0.8450)
b) From 20 to 30 customers arriving in a half an hour
period. (ans: 0.7239)
c) At most 15 customers arriving in a ten-minute
period. (ans: 0.9918)
POISSON APPROXIMATION TO BINOMIAL
DISTRIBUTION

Poisson probability distribution can be used to

approximate binomial probability distribution
when:
a) n is large (n 50)

b) = np is small (np < 7) and p < 0.1)

EXAMPLE 10 (POISSON APPROXIMATION)
A shipment of computer keyboards is inspected for
defects before being accepted. The probability that a
computer keyboard is defective is 0.04. If one crate
contains100 computer keyboards are inspected,

a) How many computer keyboards in a crate would

you expect to be defective? (Ans : 4)
b) Approximate the probability that from 5 to 10
computer keyboards in a crate are defective. (Ans:
0.3684)
EXAMPLE 11 (POISSON APPROXIMATION)
A shipment of computer keyboards is inspected for
defects before being accepted. The probability that a
computer keyboard is defective is 0.04. If 50 keyboards
are inspected,

a) what is the probability at least than 7 computer

keyboards are defective? (Ans: 0.0045)
b) what is the probability that at most 7 computer
keyboards are defective? (Ans: 0.9989)
c) find the probability that 7 computer keyboards are
defective. (Ans: 0.0034)
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

EXAMPLE 12 (NORMAL DISTRIBUTION)
Use the tables to find the probabilities:
a) P(Z > 1.52)

b) P(Z < 1.52)

c) P(Z > 1.52)

d) P(1.52 < Z < 2.0)

e) P( 1 < Z < 2)

f) P(|Z|< 2)
EXAMPLE 13 (NORMAL DISTRIBUTION)
If the random variable X is normally distributed with
mean 125 and variance 16, find the following
probabilities:
a) P(X > 130)

b) P(X < 128)

c) P(120 < X < 128)

(ans: 0.1056, 0.7734, 0.4773)
EXAMPLE 14 (NORMAL DISTRIBUTION)
A machine produces component with an average
length of 100cm and standard deviation 5cm. The
length are normally distributed. If a component is
chosen at random, find the probability that the length
is
a) More than 105cm. (ans: 0.1587)

b) Less than 90cm. (ans: 0.0228)

c) Between 90cm and 105cm. (ans: 0.8186)

EXAMPLE 15 (SUMMARY MEASURES FOR NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION)

A local report stated that the mean score on a

placement test was 480 and that 20% of the
candidates scored below 400. Assume that the scores
follow a normal distribution.
a) Find the standard deviation of the scores. (Ans: 95.06)

b) Find the percentage of candidates that scored

above 500 (Ans: 41.68)
EXAMPLE 16
Given that X ~ N (2,4), find the value of c such that:
a) P(X > c) = 0.35

b) P(X < c) = 0.15

c) P(X > c) = 0.85

d) P(X < c) = 0.75

(ans: 2.7706, -0.0728, -0.0728, 3.349)

END OF TOPIC 1