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Columbia Journalism School
Week 6: Drawing Conclusions from Data
How likely is it that the temperature won't increase over next decade?
From The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver
It is conceivable that the 14 elderly people who are reported to have
died soon after receiving the vaccination died of other causes.
Government officials in charge of the program claim that it is all a
coincidence, and point out that old people drop dead every day. The
American people have even become familiar with a new statistic:
Among every 100,000 people 65 to 75 years old, there will be nine or
ten deaths in every 24-hour period under most normal circumstances.
7
4
1
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
8
5
2
Simulated without stoplight
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
9
6
3
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
7
4
1
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
8
5
2
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8
Simulated with a 50% effective stoplight
9
6
3
Bayes learns from evidence
Pr(H|E) = Pr(E|H) Pr(H) / Pr(E)
or
0
H0 H1 H2
Pr(H1|E)/Pr(H2|E)
= [Pr(E|H1)Pr(H1)/Pr(E)] / [Pr(E|H2)Pr(H2)/Pr(E)]
= Pr(E|H1)/Pr(E|H2) * Pr(H1)/Pr(H2)
Bayes Factor
Ok, but whats a significant Bayes Factor?
Testing for Racial Discrimination in Police Searches of Motor Vehicles, Simoiu et al.
Causal Models
Does chocolate make you smarter?
Occupational Group Smoking Mortality
Woodworkers 93 113
X causes Y Y causes X
X Y X Y
X Y
random chance!
Guns and firearm homicides?
X Y
X Y
X Y
X Y
if a woman is beautiful,
1) she'll respond less
2) people will tell her that
Go looking for information that gives you the best ability to discriminate
between hypotheses.