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Zhenmin Zhou, Zhiliang Wang

North China College of WRHP, Zhengzhou, Henan 450045, China, zzm1022@yahoo.com.cn

Abstract: Based on analysis on statistic parameters including mean, coefficient of variation and serial

correlation of drought, the foresaid parameters on drought duration and severity were studied. The extreme

drought duration and severity expressions were developed. Taking Dongzhou Reservoir as an example, the

related design parameters were calculated. [Nature and Science 2003;1(1):62-66].

Key Words: drought frequency; drought duration; drought severity; truncated level

http://www.sciencepub.net 62 editor@sciencepub.net

Nature and Science, 1(1), 2003, Zhou and Wang, Theory of Drought System Analysis

Droughts have attracted the much attention in different q=P (

areas at the present. The sequences of the rainfall or drought corresponding to the truncation level

x m =1

stream flow that are used to characterize droughts are and P() stands for the notation of probability. For

known as drought variables. In general, droughts are normal pdf, the relationship between q and the

measured in terms of deficiency in the rainfalls or truncation level can be obtained by standardizing the

streams flows below a predefined reference level. The

cumulative deficit during a drought spell is known as sequence xi into zi (zi has mean=0 and z =1 and a

the severity, the reference level for identification of the standard normal distribution). Thus, for the normal pdf

droughts, or for quantifying the severity. It is termed the (coefficient of skewness, Cs=0) the value of zi

truncation level and is taken to be equal to the long-term (corresponding to xm=1) is 0, and

mean of the sequence of the drought variable. q=p(xi1)=P(zi0)=0.5 is obtained straightforwardly

From the point of view of creating provisions for from the standard normal probability tables or through

meeting the exigencies during a drought spell, the most the following standard normal probability integral

important parameters of concern are the longest q p z z m

duration and the largest severity for a desired return zm

period of T years, and are termed as extreme duration 1 2

and severity in this paper. The sequence representing the

2 exp( 0.5 z )dz

drought could be distributed normally or may have a

(1)

skewed distribution. The simple type of pdfs used for The value of zi corresponding to xm=1 for normal pdf is

modeling the annual rainfall and runoff sequences are referred to as zm(=0) in the text.

normal, log-normal and gamma, all with two For the log-normal distribution, the value of the

parameters. Likewise, the simplest kind of dependence truncation level zml, equivalent to the mean of the

is Markovian, represented by the lag-one serial sequence xm=1, can be worked out using the following

explanation. If xi is log-normal variate with a mean xm

correlation coefficient . For a given place or a basin the

reliable statistics available for annual rainfall and stream

and standard deviation (coefficient of

flow are mean, coefficient of variation and lag-one

serial correlation coefficient. One might wish to know variation=Cv), ln(xi) is normal with a mean 1 and

the answers to the following questions based on the 1

standard deviation . The xi sequence can be

above readily available information. (1) How does the ui xi xm / x

coefficient of variation affect the extreme duration and standardized as , where the Ui

severity characteristics? (2) How do the skewness (pdf sequence has mean=0 and standard deviation=1.

of the drought variable sequence) and the dependence Therefore xi can be expressed in terms of mean (x m) and

() influence the extreme values of the aforesaid coefficient of variation (Cv) as follows

parameters? (3) Is there any formula terms of the largest xi xm 1 Cv ui

(2)

severity and the return period that may appear parallel

As the variate ln(xi) can also be standardized, the new

to the flood frequency formula, commonly cited in the

normal standardized variate (designated as Zi) can be

hydrological texts? The flood frequency formula is used

expressed as

for design of the runoff handling structure. The drought

frequency formula should be usable for the design of ln xi 1 ln xm 1 cv ui 1

water storage structures for the drought periods.

zi

1 1 (3)

Therefore, based on statistic theory and analysis

methods, the research was carried out on above At the mean level of xi sequence, ui= 0, hence zi,

problems. designated as zml, can be expressed using equation (3) as

ln( xm ) 1

2 Stochastic Analysis of Extreme Drought Duration z ml

and Severity

1 (4)

2.1 Evaluation of Drought Probability Quantile Q It is known that moments of xi and ln(xi) are related by

If a time-series xi (modular form, mean=1 and standard the following relationships

deviation=

x m =1,

) is truncated at the mean level 1 ln( xm ) 0.5 12 (5)

x x x

then the event of excesses ( i m ) and deficits ( i 2 2

1 ln(1 Cv ) (6)

x

< m ) would emerge along the time axis. The Using equations (5) and (6), equation (4) can be

truncation level can be assigned a probability quantile as simplified as

http://www.sciencepub.net 63 editor@sciencepub.net

Nature and Science, 1(1), 2003, Zhou and Wang, Theory of Drought System Analysis

zml ln xm (ln xm 0.512 ) will be 0.0666, 0.1332, 0.2098, 0.2664 and 0.333

1 for Cv values of 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8 and 1, respectively. For

0.5 1 0.5 ln(1 C v )

2

(7)

0. 5 a normally distributed drought variable all of them will

be equal to 0, regardless of the Cv. Therefore, the

Note the modular form, hence xm=1 in all the above probability quantile for a gamma-distributed drought

relationships. Since zml is a standard normal variate, the variable could be worked out for the desired value of C v

value of the probability quantile of the equation by consulting the standard normal probability tables or

through integration of equation (1), replacing zm by

q P ( zi z ml ) can be obtained from the standard

zm . Note here again that zm >0 for xm=1. For

normal probability tables or computed by the numerical example, for a gamma-distributed drought variable with

integration of the standard normal function shown in

equation (1) with zm replaced by zml. Looking at the Cv=0.4, zm = 0.13 and q = 0.55 at the level of

structure of equation (7), it is obvious that z ml is great truncation equal to the mean level of the sequence,

than 0 for the mean of the sequence x i (i.e. xm=1). The against 0.5 for a normally distributed drought variable,

value of q for the log-normally distributed sequence will and 0.58 for a log-normally distributed variable. Values

always be greater than 0.5 and is dependent on the Cv of of q for normal, two-parameter gamma and log-normal

the sequence. The effect of skewness is implicitly pdfs for various Cv values are shown in Table 1.

included in Cv. As for the log-normal pdf, Cs and Cv are

functionally related through the following relationship 2.2 Modeling Extreme Drought Duration

3 Any uninterrupted sequence of deficits can be regarded

C s 3Cv Cv as a drought length (duration) equal to the number of

(8)

The same analysis can be extended to the two- deficits in the sequence, designated by L (L=1, 2, 3,

i is the standardized ..... , j). Each drought duration is associated with deficit

parameter gamma distribution. If sum D, i.e. the sum of the individual deficits, d 1, d2, d3,

gamma variate [ i = (xi - 1)/Cv], then zi, i.e. the .... , in the successive epochs of the spell. This deficit

standardized normal variate, is related approximately to sum is termed as drought standardized sequence of the

drought variable. The actual severity (D) is functionally

i through the following linkage relationship

related to the standardized severity (S) through the

6 C

cs

zi 0.5Cs i 1

0.333

1 s

6

relationship D X S (Guven, 1983). The term S/L

is termed the drought intensity or magnitude. One can

(9)

expect n (n=0, 1, 2, 3, .... , i) drought spells (runs) over a

C s 2C v ,

For a two-parameter gamma variable period of T years and correspondingly there will be n

equation (9) can be reduced to values of severities designated as D1, D2, D3 .... or S1, S2,

z i 3Cv xi

1

0.333

1 0.333Cv (10) S3 .... , in the standardized terms.

A designer is interested in the longest values of L,

Therefore, a modular gamma variate can be designated as LT, and the largest value of S, designated

transformed into a standard normal variate using as ST. The period T means a sample size of T (T = 10,

xm 1 20, ....., 100) years and can be regarded as equivalent to

equation (10) and at the mean level, , a return period of T years. The probabilistic

z m 0.333Cv

. Note the value of zi is designated as relationship for LT can be obtained by applying the

zm for xi=1. That is, if the drought variable is gamma theorem of extreme of random number of random

variables. The computations for drought durations and

distributed, at the truncation level equal to the mean of form does not affect the magnitude of the duration (L)

Table 1. Values of Q and R at the Mean Level for Different Probability Distributions

Model For all

cv cv cv cv cv

cv =0.2 =0.4 =0.6 =0.8 =1.0

Remarks

Distribution n ln ln ln ln ln

q =0 0.5 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.58 0.58 0.61 0.61 0.64 0.64 0.66 n :norma

l

Different

cv and r value

:gamm

http://www.sciencepub.net 64 editor@sciencepub.net

Nature and Science, 1(1), 2003, Zhou and Wang, Theory of Drought System Analysis

=0.1 0.53 0.56 0.57 0.58 0.61 0.61 0.64 0.63 0.67 0.66 0.71 a

=0.3 0.60 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.67 0.67 0.70 0.69 0.74 0.71 0.78 ln : log

=0.5 0.67 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.75 0.80 0.77 0.84

0.75 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.80 0.82 0.81 0.86 0.83 0.89

=0.7

(16)

but does affect the magnitude of the severity (D). The The conditional probability, r, is related to the lag-one

mean has no effect on the severity as it is the difference serial correlation coefficient

, through the following

between the magnitude of the drought variable and the equation.

mean itself. So, in the course of mathematical r q

derivations for severity, the mean cancels out, leaving

standardized severity, which can be transformed into 1

actual severity D by the relationship mentioned above. 2q

exp 0.5 z 02 /(1 ) (1 2 ) 1 / 2 d

The following relationships can therefore be deduced 0 (1

for LT following the work of Guven (1983). 7)

P ( LT j ) where

is the lag-one serial correlation coefficient of

i

the Markov process and is the dummy variable of

p ( n 0) P ( L j ) p (n i ) integration. Equation (17) can be evaluated by a

i 1 (11) numerical integration procedure and values of r for

Note j takes on discrete values, P(...) stands for the

notation of cumulative probability and p(...) for the given at truncation level z0 (z0 = zm for normal pdf,

probability of discrete events. Spells may evolve Z 0 Z m Z 0 Z ml for log-

for gamma pdf, and

randomly or in a Markovian fashion and can be normal pdf) can be computed. It is evident from

regarded to follow the Poisson law of probability. The equation (17) that for independent processes r = q. It

geometric law of probability adequately simulates the

should be noted that if the xi sequence is normal,

drought length L. The following relationships can be

written for probabilities of number of drought runs and can be substituted as it is, but for log-normal pdf

length of runs. should be converted to

1, which is the right value in

i Z 0 Z ml . The linkage

exp Tq (1 r ) Tq (1 r ) the normalized domain and

p(n i) relationship between

and 1 is of the following

i! (12) form

ln CV2 1

P( LT j ) 1 r j 1 ; P( L j ) r j 1 (13)

1

where q is the probability quantile defined earlier and r

ln(1 CV2 ) (18)

is the conditional probability of any year being a

For a gamme pdf,

remains unchanged but

Z m

drought year, given that the past year is also a drought

year. Substituting equations (12) and (13) into equation Z0 CV

replaces . Values of q and r for various pdfs,

(11) and simplifying, one can get the following and

values are shown in Table 1. It is obvious from

relationship Table 1 that q for the normal pdf is constant and is equal

P( LT j ) exp Tq (1 r )1 P( L j ) to 0.5 regardless of the coefficient of variation, whereas

(14)

for log-normal pdf it is dependent on the

CV and in

The expected value of LT can be obtained by using the

formula turn on Cs. Values of r are dependent on for normal

pdf and on Cv and

for gamma and log-normal pdfs.

E ( LT ) jp ( LT j )

In all cases log-normal distribution tends to have a

j 1

(15)

greater value of q and r for identical values of and

Since p ( LT j ) P ( LT j 1) P( LT j ) , Cv in the sequences of the drought variable, indicating

one can therefore derive an expression for p(LT =j) by that extreme values of the drought duration are going to

be larger under the log-normal structure of data

involving equations (13) and (14), and the resulting representing the drought. With the above procedural

equation is as follows. details equation (15) can be solved numerically in order

p( L j ) exp T (1 r )r j 1 exp Tq(1 r ) 2 r jto 1 evaluate

T

1 E(LT) for the desired return period T in

http://www.sciencepub.net 65 editor@sciencepub.net

Nature and Science, 1(1), 2003, Zhou and Wang, Theory of Drought System Analysis

Yi=0.1, Y2=0.2, ....., etc., equation (24) can be expressed

2.3 Modeling Extreme Drought Severities in the numerical integral form as follows

The probabilistic relationship for S T can be obtained n1

parallel to that for LT, i.e. equation (11), and can be E ( S T ) (Y j y j 1

expressed as follows j 0

P ( S T Y )

/ 2 P ( S T Y j 1 ) ( S T Y j )

(25)

p ( n 0) P ( S Y ) i p (n i ) In which n1=60/0.1, and Y600=60.

i 1 (19) Since values of E(ST) are standardized and in non-

in which Y can take on values such as 0, 0.1, 0.2, ... , 60 dimensional form, the actual drought severity

(Y=60 represents an extremely large value) and these designated as DT can be expressed as

values are dimensionless. Plugging the expression for DT E ( S T ) X

p(n=i), indicated by equation (12), into equation (19), E ( S T ) CV x m x m x m E ( S T ) x (26)

one obtains the following

the last portion of the above equation can be

P( ST Y ) exp Tq (1 r )1 P( S Y ) (2 manipulated as

0) x C 1 E ( S ) x F

The term S denotes severity (based on the standardized DT= m V X T X m T X (27)

sequences) or the sum of the deficits in each epoch of where FT can be called the drought frequency factor and

the drought spell, which can be approximated as be written in equation form as

normally distributed in view of the central limit FT E ( S T ) CV 1

theorem. The pdf of S can therefore be written in the (28)

following form It can be seen that equation (27) is analogous to the

P ( S Y ) QT Qm K T Q

flood frequency formula

Y 2

commonly cited in hydrological texts.

1 S s

exp 0.5 ds

2 S 0 s 3. Application

(2l) The Dongzhou reservoir is located at the Chaiwen River

In a drought spell consisting of k consecutive years of the Dawen Basin within the downstream of the

(L=k), the expressions for the mean,

s , and standard Yellow River, which controls the area of 189 km 2. The

main water supply is for irrigation as well as for

deviation,

s , of severity can be written as follows

drinking water. The design irrigation area is 8667 hm 2.

s K ( t ) (22)

The average annual runoff within the controlled area

amounts to 39106 m3, Cv=0.40. The flows tend to be

1 2 (1 k ) log-normally distributed with a negligible level of

s2 k t2 2

1 k (1 ) (23) carryover ( ). The reservoir should meet the demand

1 in 100 years drought. Therefore there is a need to

where

t and t are the mean and standard deviation estimate the volume of water to be stored for designing

of the individual deficits, and

is as defined earlier.

the reservoir. The solution of the problem starts by

Parallel to the expression for E(LT) in equation (15), ( 16 10 6 m 3 )

estimation q for Cv=0.40 x in

the expression for E(ST) can be written as equation (1) and using the values of q and r (r=q for

Y independent flows) in equations (15) and (16). The

E(ST ) ST f (ST )dST value of q equals to 0.58, and E(LT)=7.15, then

FT 7.15 0.40 1 4.65

0

(24)

Although the pdf of ST is not known, equation (24) can DT 0.39 4.65 0.16 1.134 108 m3.

still be solved numerically. In the numerical procedure, Had the discharge is normal distribution, then

first, equation (21) is integrated numerically in order to q 0.5 E ( LT ) 5.78 DT 92 106 m3. If

evaluate P(S Y), and plugging this value into equation

the discharge is gamma distribution the calculated

(20) yields the estimate of P ( S T Y ) . The value of E ( LT ) 6.74, and

Y can be allowed to range from 0 to 60 [infinity in results are q 0.55

equation (24) is approximated by 60] with an increment DT 1.07 108 m3. When 0 if 0.5

http://www.sciencepub.net 66 editor@sciencepub.net

Nature and Science, 1(1), 2003, Zhou and Wang, Theory of Drought System Analysis

=0 7, and a return period of 25 1000

r 0.73 E ( LT ) 10.63 DT 1.69 108 m3, years. The above approximation leads to a conservative

design for water storage facilities during drought

for normal distribution q 0.5 r 0.67 periods.

E ( LT ) 8.57 DT 1.36 108 m3 for gamma 3. The skewness and the persistence in the sequences

of the drought variable enhance the extremal drought

distribution of discharge q 0.55 r 0.71 durations and the severities. In particular, the effect of

E ( LT ) 9.92 DT 1.43 108 m3. The above skewness on the extreme drought durations cannot be

regarded as insignificant, contrary to the existing belief

calculation mainly demonstrates the role of skewness

in the hydrological literatures.

and the carryover effects in the storage needs during

4. A drought frequency formula can be derived to

drought periods.

estimate the drought severity in relation to the return

Therefore when it is difficult to identify the pdf of

period, analogous to the flood frequency formula. The

the drought variable, the assumption of log-normality

drought frequency factor, FT, is equal to [E(ST)-Cv-1] and

allows a conservative design, which is a desirable

feature. The assumption of normality leads to the can easily be computed by knowing pdf, C v and of

requirement for least storage under identical conditions the drought variable, and the desired return period T.

of Cv and of the dependence structure of the rainfall or

the runoff sequences. This research has been supported by IDSS developing

for water resources optimum allocation and

4. Conclusions management {20025700003} and by Innovatory found

The results of the present analysis can be stated as in Henan Province, China.

follows:

1. The non-normal pdf of the drought variable Correspondence to: Zhenmin Zhou

influences the behavior of E(LT) and E(ST) significantly. 20 Zhenghua Road

The log-normal pdf tends to lengthen the values of Zhengzhou, Henan 450045, China

E(LT) and enlarge the values of E(ST) for identical Telephone: 0086-0371-5790658

conditions of Cv, Cs,

and T, followed by the gamma

Cellular phone: 13015542843

E-mail: zzm1022@yahoo.com.cn

and normal pdfs. The effect of skewness is accordingly

reflected in the increased values of the above parameters References

in relation to the normal pdf. Bogardi JJ, et al. Practical generations of synthetic rainfall event time

2. For the purpose of designing storage structures for series in a semi-arid climatic zone. J Hydrol 1998;103:357-73.

drought periods, one can safely assume E(ST)E(LT), or Guven O. A simplified semiempirical approach to probabilities of

extreme hydrologic droughts. WRR 1983;19:441-53.

the drought intensity 1 (in the standardized terms) for Song H, Zhang S. Basic Analysis on Regional Drought Statistic

Features. Advances in Water Science J. China. 1994;3.

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