IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. PWRS-2, No.
3, August 1987
A MICROCOMPUTER BASED ON-LINE IDENTIFICATION APPROACH TO POWER SYSTEM DYNAMIC LOAD MODELLING
T. Dovan, T.S. Dillon,
State Electricity Commission Dept. of Computer Science,
of Victoria, Ia Trobe University,
Australia. Victoria, Australia.
SUMMARY: An on-line method for the development of
power system load models using system identification
techniques is presented. The modelling procedure
involves the selection of the load model structure as
well as the estimation of the load model parameters.
A load model structure selection technique based on
the model reference error cost function is used and a
square root based least squares estimator is
developed.
The collection of large volumes of data, for
later off-line analysis, is avoided by using an on-
line microcomputer system for the acquisition and
analysis of perturbed load data.
Load tests were carried out for both agricultural
and industrial/commercial loads and typical results
obtained are also presented in this paper.
1. INITRODUCTION
Pbwer system dynamic load models play an
important part in power system transient and dynamic
stability studies [1-7]. They also play a significant
role in voltage instability phenomena [8-111.
Incorrect load representation in system studies
could lead to the system being operated in modes that
result in actual system collapse or separation [71.
More accurate dynamic models are therefore necessary
to allow more precise calculations of power system
controls and stability limits which are critical in
the planning and operation of a power system.
There are two main approaches used in solving
this modelling problem:
(a) To derive analytically a composite load model
based on knowledge of dynamic behaviour of all the
individual components and the composition of the loads
which are connected to a particular loadbus [121. For
a large utility the surveys of load components are
difficult tasks and are not generally practicable.
(b) The approach adopted in this paper is to form a
mathematical model for the load using system identi-
fication techniques [13-15]. This approach requires
processing of measured voltage and frequency as input
signals and load response as an output signal to yield
the required load model. The procedure involves the
estimation of model parameters as well as the
determination of the model structure.
lower system load models show considerable varia-
tions in model structure as well as model parameters
due to different system and environmental conditions.
87 WM 030-0
A paper recommended and approved
by the IEEE Power System Engineering Committee of
the IEEE Power Engineering Society for presentation
at the IEEE/PES 1987 Winter Meeting, New Orleans,
Louisiana, February 1 - 6, 1987. Manuscript
submitted August 29, 1985; made available for
printing December 4, 1986.
0885-8950/87/0800-0529$01.001987 IEEE
529
C.S. Berger, K.E. Forward,
Dept. of Electrical Dept of Electrical
Engineering, Engineering,
Monash University, Melbourne UJniversity,
Victoria, Australia. Victoria, Australia.
The quantity of data that needs to be gathered and
processed off-line is therefore extremely large. To
cope with the large amount of data involved and to
also achieve a more efficient method in the analysis
of data for progressively updating the power system
load model, the authors decided to carry out both
data-gathering and load modelling by an on-line
approach using a dedicated microcomputer.
For a power system load, in addition to voltage
and frequency inputs to the model, there are less
obvious inputs e.g. temperature, location, time of day
etc. which can considerably affect the system output.
These additional inputs, which can be described as
external factors, make the load characteristics vari-
able and consequently the model structure of the load
model will be variable over different periods of time.
Therefore, in parallel with the recursive parameters
estimation step, a model structure monitoring proced-
ure has to be repeatedly carried out to detect signi-
ficant changes in the model performance, so that
necessary adjustment of model structure car- be made to
improve the model performance when used in an on-line
identification scheme.
Numerous methods of model structure determination
have been proposed and surveyed in the identification
literature [16-17]. However, it is often not easy to
select a suitable method for a particular application
and there is always a potential risk that a false
model strtucture will be selected. This problem is
further exacerbated by the multi-variable nature and
random characteristics of the load response.
The present authors have presented an approach to
model structure selection for power system loads in
reference [18].
The present paper describes the on-line identifi-
cation system implemented on a 68000 microcomputer
system. It addresses both the model structure selec-
tion and parameter estimation procedures. Load models
developed for actual data collected during several
tests on the Victorian power system are also
presented.
2. FUNCTIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ON LINE SYSTEM
The normal procedure adopted previously was to
collect data from pre-arranged load tests, then ana-
lyse the collected data off line at a later stage on
large central computers for the development of dynamic
load models. To cover a variety of system conditions,
the off line method will become impractical and ineff-
icient because of the large volume of data involves.
Therefore, it has been decided that hoth data
gathering and load modelling analysis tasks should be
carried out on line. This approach will also allow
collection of data for large perturbations that may
occur from time to time. This is necessary for the
development of large signal load models. The two main
functions of the microcomputer are described in detail
below. The system incorporates both model structure
selection and parameter estimnation. The overall
scheme of the system is shown in Fig. 1.
530
2.1 Data Gathering where:

The function of the systemn is to continuously {Pk} are the observed load response outputs.
nonitor the power system voltage, frequency and load
responses at a certain loadbus. Sampled data (at a {vk} and {fk} are observed voltage anid frequency
few milliseconds sampiirng rate) is first stored in a inputs.
separate system memory buffer for disturbance checking
purposes. The buffer is cyclically filled on a first I ck} are the unobservable output disturbances, a
in first out basis to keep a part of the pre-perturbed sequence of zero me2n gaussian variable with
load response. Only relevant time series which con- distribution: = N(O,O ).
tain disturbances are retained, tagged with a time
stamp and transferred to into main memnory for further
analysis.
{ai} , {bi} and {ci} are the regression coefficient of
their respective
Pi, ViD fi and np, nv and nf are
regression order.
The disturbance detection criteria are simply
based on detecting sudden changes of the voltage and The noise terms, di, were found experimentally to
frequency which are larger than threshold levels set have insignificant effect on the model. They were
in the detection program. A typical value for the therefore omitted.
voltage threshold level would be 57 from the predis-
turbed static level. To eliminate transient spikes Hence, the model structure, Mi, is defined by np,
which may occur in the inputs, the disturbance is also nv and nf i.e. Mi = [np,nv,nfl. The total number of
required to persist longer thani a certain period of parameters in a model structure is n = np + nv + nf.
timne. A block diagram of this function is illustrated
in Fig. 2. Given a set of N observations, a least squares
parameter estimate vector (x) for the model is
2.2 Data Analysis obtained using a "Square Root" type algorithm which
will be described in the next section. Secondly, for
The analysis of the load response which contains that set of N observations the deterministic model
disturbances requires an initial selection of a model response is then generated for comparison purposes.
structure taken from a look up table, followed by a
parameter estimation step. Model performance is The cost function which relates the model
constantly monitored in case a new model structure is reference errors to the model performance is defined
required (see Fig. 3). as:
N 2
N
2.2.1 A model structure selection method J = N-n y (p(k) - p(k)) (2)
i=1
In the on line modelling of a certain process, it
is normally expected that only process parameters are where p(k) is the model output given by
changed with external factors, while the model struc-
ture of the process is fixed. Therefore, once the np nv
model structure is determined, the only computation Pk 'A ai Pk-i + ), bi vk-i
left to be done is the estimation of the model i=1 1=0
parameters.
nf
However, the composition of a power system load
is variable, and consequently the model structure of
+
i=0
ci fk-i
the load model will be variable. Hence, model struc-
ture inonitoring procedure has to be repeatedly carried and the a, t, c terms are the least squares estimates
out to detect significant changes in model performance of the corresponding parameters terms in (1).
so that necessary adjustment of model structure can be
nmade to improve the model performance. This test is based on a comparison of the time
response of the model deterministic output with the
The limited computational capacity of the micro- actual observed time response over a disturbed period.
computer requires a numerically efficient model This is of importance, because the model performance
structure selectiorn procedure. We have decided to is critical only during system disturbances for the
store several model structures associated with understanding of the dynamic behaviour of power system
different load types, seasons and times of day in a loads. Experimental results obtained indicated that
look up table. These model structures are determined test of errors in deterministic modelling is sensitive
off line and progressively updated as fu-rther results not only to the model structure, which includes the
become available. The system then monitors on line autoregressive terms and input order but also to the
the model reference error which is defined in terms of transport delays in the model.
a cost function and if it is too large a new structure
is obtained from the look up table is used [181. The normal procedure is to start with a small
Typical structures are given in Table 1. practical range of model structural from the lowest
Consider a two-input/single output load model order, e.g. M = [1,1,1]. For the same given set of
represented by a linear time invariant discrete disturbed signals, a comparison is then made for all
process: the investigated model structures. The model
structure that yields a model response that fits the
np nv actual observed response best would then be selected.
Pkk pk.
=y 1i a.P1k-
1~ ~~=
+i b.i vk
k- The simplest model structure that gives the
minimum acceptable value of the cost function is
nf nr selected. This method is simple and can be
+ - i k-i + 1 di tk-i + tk (1) implemented easily on the computer so that the model
i=0 = performance can be monitored from time to time. If
necessary, the new model structure retrieved from the

look-up table will be used. This table in turn will
oe updated as more disturbed load responses are
collected and analysed by the microcomputer system.
2.2.2. Implementation of a square root
identification routine
Although the classical Kalman filter and Least
Squares methods for parameter identification have been
well developed and used for a long time, these algor-
ithms sometimes are prone to serious numerical diffi-
culties [191. There are also problems encountered in
converting a Kalman filter on a long wordlength, large
computer to a smaller wordlength computer [20,211. In
these methods, measurement updating of the covariance
matrix requires a rather long wordlength to miaintain
an acceptable numerical accuracy.
Even with the use of a recursive algorithm, these
methods still imply matrix inversion. For practical
applications, there is a risk of numerical ill-
conditioning although the covariance matrix is not
strictly singular. The use of small, short wordlength
computers with limited arithmetic precision may
aggravate this problem [23].
During the early stage of power system load
modelling work, difficulty with an ordinary least
squares version implemented on a small 16 bit computer
had been experienced. The problem encountered was
that significant changes of the model performance with
difference model structures were not clearly
indicated.
In order to eliminate this problem, "Square Root"
methods have recently been developed to propagate and
update a stable estimate and error covariance square
root or inverse covariance square root instead of the
covariance or its inverse [22]. Therefore, in com-
parison to the conventional Kalman filter and ordinary
Least Squares methods the same precision can be
achieved with approximately half the wordlength. One
of the algorithms that belongs to these square root
methods which is of interest to our load modelling
project is the "U-D Factorization" algorithm. Rather
than deconposing the covariance into its square root
factors, this U-D factorization method involves the
factorization of the covariance matrix into an upper
triangular matrix (U) and a diagonal matrix (D).
Although it is classified as a "Square Root" type
because of its close relation with the square root
m,,ethods, it does not actually involve scalar square
roots, and computing with triangular matrices requires
fewer arithmetic operations. These excellent proper-
ties of the U-D factorization method are considered to
be mo re suitable for real time application that
involves a microcomputer with limnited capacity and
many measuremenits in the calctulation. Because of
these reasons, the U-D factorization algorithm has
been selected for the identification inethod to be use
in the on - line load model. It is believed that this
algorithm will offer both computational time savings
and reduction in computer storage requirements in
comparison to the other algorithns [19,22].
Given N observations Equation (1) may be stacked
to give the matrix equation
z = Ax + e (3)
where z is a vector of Pk's and x is a vector of the
regression coefficients. The least squares solution
for this system, requires minimization of the mean
square observation error:
531
ti, 2 T
J = y e(j) = e e (4)
j=1
The minimization requires the parameter estimate
vector (x) to satisfy the normal equations:
ATAx = ATZ (5)
for a nonsingular ATA
x = (ATA)YlATz (6)
i. e. x = PATZ (7)
where P = (ATAY 1 is the inverse covariance matrix.
Equation (7) is known as a least squares estimator.
With an additional set of observation and an
initial inverse covariance matrix (PF), the matrix
inversion lemma [22] will allow the calculation of the
new inverse covariance recursively without matrix
inversion. This is the basis for the recursive least
squares method.
The 11D factorization algorithm uses the
factorization of PO = UODOUO combined with the scalar
observation z = A x + e to obtain the updated
covariance factors [22].
This algorithm can easily be modified for a two
input/single output system which can represent a power
system load. Further modifications for Extended least
Squares method can also be achieved if necessary.
3. THE MICROCM1PUTER SYSTEM
3.1 Hardware
The microcomputer chosen for the one line load
identification system is a Motorola 68000, 12 MHz CPU.
The hardware system consists of the processor
with 256 Kb on board meTnory, a 1 Mb memory board, a
programmable realtime clock, an analog/digital (A/D)
hoard with Direct Memory Access (ffIA) capability, a 70
Mb Winchester disk with tape cartridge back-up and two
serial ports for terminal communication. The block
diagram of this system is illustrated in Fig. 4.
The programmable clock provides software
controlled sampling rates for the A/D conversions.
The chosen sampling time was four milliseconds in our
tests. As the rate of change of the quantities being
sampled was much lower than this, we found this to be
more than adequate. The analog input subsystem with
DMA capability has conventional 0 bus programmed 1/0
interface. Its scanning facility allows sequential
A/D conversions of different input channels, and this
is necessary because of the requirement to simultan-
eously acquire data from at least four channels for
voltage, frequency, active and reactive power. This
means that each on-line identification unit can
simultaneously instrument four buses.
In the initial stage, the system is designed to
connect directly to the existing transducers and
signal conditioning units which are available from the
electricity supply utilities. The Winchester disk
will allow storage of data for a reasonable period of
time i.e. of the order of several weeks and this is
dependent on the freqniency of system disturbances.
larger disk capacity will allow storage for a longer
period of time.
532
The design is such that the hardware system can
easily be extended with a modem for retrieval of data
via telephone line if necessary.
3.2 Software
Inaddition to the existing Unix operating
system, the software is designed so that the micro-
computer system is capable of operating in a stand-
alone mode for both field and in house environments
for future software modification and development.
Because of the critical timing in the real time
operation and the large amount of computation involved
in the analysis of data, the functional software is
designed to operate in both foreground and background
modes. To cope with real time use the Unix kernel had
to be modified.
The data gathering function software is operated
in foreground with the highest priority to ensure
successful data capture. The sampling rate and A/D
DMA controls are driven by the system interrupt
service routines which are implemented as device
drivers in the Unix operating system kernel. The data
analysis software which involves model structure
selection and parameter estimation are operated in the
background mode and run at a lower priority.
Both perturbed load responses and modelling
results are finally stored in the system disk for
later retrieval. The perturbed responses are hence
available for any future off-line studies that may be
necessary.
4. TEST RESULTS
Several load tests have been arranged for the
collection of actual observations on load responses
which are required for the identification process.
Two typical types of loads were chosen and they are
major load blocks in agricultural and metropolitan
areas.
During the same day, several tests were repeated
at different times which correspond to light and heavy
loading periods to investigate the effect of pattern
of usage on the load model structure. The effect of
ambient temperature was also examined by performing
the same tests on two different days with different
maximum ambient temperatures.
Step voltage disturbances of up to 10% nominal
were then induced by switching off and on large capac-
itors or one of the parallel station transformers.
Because of the nature of the tests, system frequency
variations were small and it is expected that there
would be minimum effect of frequency variation on the
load model.
Since it is expected that the correct model
structure may be different from one set of data to
another, a range of model structures is tested for
every set of data. Examinations of how the model
performance varies over this range of model structures
allows a selection of an appropriate model structure.
In the event of a similar numerical value being
obtained for the cost function for different model
structures, the structure with the simplest order will
be chosen to achieve computational savings.
From the results obtained in these analyses, the
following findings have been established:
Since there were minimal frequency variations in the
data used for this analysis, in selecting various
model structures only the number of output and voltage
terms are altered in the nodel structure, while the
number of frequency terms is kept constant. Actual
test results obtained so far indicate that, the ntumber
of frequency terms has no significant effect on the
model performance.
In general, a major proportion of collected load
responses is of the underdamped step response type,
and a correct model structure for a particular load
response can he detected by observing a sharp change
of the model cost function in the neighbourhood of the
correct structure. A good fit of model response to
actual responses of this type is usually achieved.
This change is normally in a form of a "V" shape
in which the cost function is minimum at the correct
structure. Reduction or increase of the order of this
structure would degrade the model performance.
Another form of the change in cost function if of "I"
shape type, in which the cost function is minimum at a
certain structure and little further improvement can
be obtained with higher order structures. Typical
results for load active power are illustrated in
Fig. 5, 6. Similar results are also obtained for load
reactive power which are illustrated in Fig. 7.
Another set of tests which involved switching one
of the lines for interconnection in the South East
Australian interconnected system was also carried out.
As can be seen from Fig. 8, these involve system
frequency variations, of the order of 0.05 Hz. The
load model responses for different load model
structures are illustrated in Fig. 9.
From these results, we note the importance of
inserting the frequency terms for active power load
models for disturbances involving significant frequ-
ency variations. On the other hand, the reactive
power load model for the same disturbance is insensi-
tive to the inclusion of frequency terms in the model
structure as shown in Fig. 10.
In the analysis of load responses over different
periods of time, the results obtained generally con-
firm the expected variations of the load model struc-
ture according to the changes in the load composition.
For the active power load model subjected to
different types of disturbances, the orders of the
output and voltage input variable vary from 2nd to 4th
order.
Low order models sufficed for residential loads,
but industrial and agricultural loads required high
order models. The model order is thus dependent on
location (industrial or residential) and on time
(depending on factory hours).
It is noted that the order of the frequency input
variable become significant in the disturbances that
include sizable system frequency variations. In
practice, a disturbance in the power system that
involves a significant frequency variation will also
cause a perturbation in the load terminal voltage.
The inclusion of both voltage and frequency input to
the model is, therefore, appropriate.
However, for the reactive load model, the model
performance is generally more sensitive to the orders
of the output and voltage input variables while it is
less sensitive to the order of the frequency input
variable compared to the active load model for the
same disturbance. The observed variations of the
output and voltage input variables range between 3rd

to 5th degree depending on the dynamic nature of the
lo ad.
These models are valid for small signal
disturbances in a power system i.e. up to 10% of the
nominal value of voltage and up to 0.1% in the
system frequency. Hence, they can be used in dynamic
stability studies. In essence, the incorporation of
these models will result in additional states and
differential equations being added to the state space
for the problem.
The dynamic load model represented in Equation I is
essentially a Z-transfer function of a dynamic system
which can be included in dynamic studies of a power
system.
5. CONCLUSIONS
The one line identification method for model
structure and parameter determination of power system
loads is able to deal conveniently with the large
amount of data involved in such investigations.
Comparison of models developed with field tests
validates the model structure selection and
identification procedure used.
Field tests indicate that for small signal load
models, generally, the model structure ranges between
2nd to 4th order, in the voltage terms.
In studying disturbances involving significant
frequency variations, the results obtained show that
the load model structure for active power load should
include frequency terms for accurate modelling whilst
for reactive power this is not necessary.
6. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors would like to thank the State
Electricity Commission of Victoria (SECV) for the
permission and assistance given in the collection of
load data at various places in their system.
Financial support fo r the Australian Electrical
Research Board (ERB) and the SECV to this project is
also gratefully acknowledged.
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534

1.0 1r . , ,

.5
0.0 4 N. .-

-.5
-1 .0
*....
I. \.
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5 221'
i ooJ
-3.0
-.3 :)I
.
.1

1.0

10~=
~
~ ~~~~~~~ ..5.. ... . ...

FIGURE 1 OVERALL FUNCTIONAL BLOCK DIAGRAM OF THE -1.5 ...

ON-LINE LOAD IDENTIFICATION SCHEME
.U 5, ,, ,,,>i

0.,
Z 0 100
............ .... ..... ..........;.....
Z-3.0...
-.5 ~. ~~
... ^

1.0

...... ........ ......

3 .50
-0. |

- 0 20 4i1 0 10 12 4 6 8 0

FIGURE 2 FUNCTIONAL BLOCK DIAGRAM OF THE

DATA-GATHERING FUNCTION
COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND MODEL RESPONISES FOR DIFFERENT
ACTIVE POWER MODEL STRUCTUJRES (MORNING LOAD). ...

c
-2 .. 5; 4 4'....: ...:....?........
2.6-. --

I... model

Variable Order (np & nv)

FIGURE 3 FUNCTIONAL BLOCK DIAGRAM OF THE
DATA ANALYSIS FUNCTMON FIGURE 5 BEHAVIOUR OF M/R COST FUNCTION WITH
MODEL'STRUCTURES FOR A CONSTANT NO.
OF FREQUENCY TERMS (nf=l)

Structure Type of Load

Active Reactive
222 221 Residential Winter
100 100
333 331 Residential Summer
100 100 Mix Commercial/Residential
444 441 Agricultural/Industrial
100 100
555 551 Industrial
100 100
FIGURE 4 BLOCK DIAGRAM OF THE HARDWARE SYSTEM TABLE 1: TYPICAL LOOK-UP TABLE FOR THE ON LINE
MODELLING SYSTEM
 535

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.

.0 ..... ... . ............. .

.I ......... .... ............. .I ,'l

0 .50 lO0 150 21~00

No of Samples
1) u
Z.

.............. ......... ..............

U)
1.5
to ............... ......

CU
-i
0
.............. ...................... 1.0
332
100 .............. ...... .

.5
331.
100
ci cI!
50 100 150 200
No of Samples
2.0 -

1.5

1.0

.5

0.0 0
COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND MODEL RESPONSES FOR DIFFERENT
ACTIVE POWER MODEL STRUCTURES (nf:2).

xlO
Xi0
_4,5.... .. .
.5
.... ..... ............ ..
X10 4.0 ........ - ---;............
4.9 .
2.5 4J

0
o 2z. <1 3. ..; -i---i ........

3.
J ...
@ 2.e;_
40 0

1.I
o.5.. .... ..

a 1 2 ~~~~~~3
4 5
Variable Ordet (nq & nv)
Variable Order (np & nv)

FIGURE 7 BEHAVIQUIt OF M/k COST FUNCTION

FIGURE 6 BEHAVIOUR OF M/R COST FUNCTION WITH WITH MODEL STRUCTURES FOR A CONSTANT
MODEL STRUCTURES FOR A CONSTANT NO. NO. OF FREQUENCY TERMS (nf=2)
OF FREQUENCY TERMS (nf=l)
536

1 6
-1 ,
. .. . .......
(tAV=1%, Af=.1%) I

............... ....... ... ... -.--, ._...... ................ ... ,...

~~~~.
......... .......

0 -0
-1 .2
1 .6 -~ .- No . of samples .
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 40(DC
FIGURE 8 ACTIVE POWER LOAD RESPONSE AND VOLTAGE
AND FREQUENCY INPUT SIGNALS OBSERVED
DURING A SYSTEM TEST

1.5
1.5,
1 .0
.5
....... .
1.0

0.0 O~ \.0 ;|@||@@-@Ae|||@s1

-.5
221 -.5 .[32
-1.0
I

100 -1.0 .1
200

-1.5
t 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 -1.5
I1oo
o .................. ........ .... ........ .....

02
to 1.5
.r.
.~~~~~~~~~~V0W. V
0 1.0 .................................

, .............
a) .5
.,,
0.0
0
z No of samples -.5 ................................... .............................

-1.0 [3 2 11
L 1 0 Oil
-1.5
........ ........ .......
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
1.5
............ .. .. .......... ...........
223
1.0 ..................................... .......................................................

.5
0.0
-.5 ..................

COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND MO0DEL RESPONSES

FOR MODEL STRUCTURES WITH INCREASING -1.0
NUMBER OF FREQUENCY TERMS
-1.5 _ . _ . . 100

.... .a. ........ ......... .......

1.5
1.0 ..................
.......... .

.5 ....................................

0.0
-.5 ..................................... .....................................

-1.0 323
a 3 a .
100
Variable Order (nf)
-1.5

FIGURE 10 EFFECTS OF FREQUENCY TERMS - COMPARISON

FIGURE 9 EFFECTS OF FREQUENCY TERMS BEHAVIOUR -
OF ACTUAL AND MODEL RESPONSES FOR
OF M/R COST FUNCTION WITH MODEL STRUCTURES WITH INCREASING NUMBER OF
STRUCTURES (nponvm2) FREQUENCY TERMS (REACTIVE POWER)