Professional Documents
Culture Documents
! B* v$ C. u9 ^. v, d! o: n y
6 Q( P* G# B- l; c# D) s
+ q7 o* t8 w, K6 [+ I
2 V) `& g+ q; q" i* `' z" i4 t
* Q. `$ }7 N7 Z G8 d1 x! m
K- l+ l9 C0 Z1 a. q# ]" y
- }
/ Z& k5 `% r' S. m
* |5 u( S p/ R3 Y: u8 s
' i. B$ f9 n! ^
% E1 Y7 _- ^: |
1 X$ @/ H, m; w( Y# |# H1 |( ?
% p- ^) m+ k6 `5 @8 O% P; V! H
8 t: W8 ~7 u4 n2 |1 C9 K, b
4 x9 n: U" h- g * U! d- R
. U F: U9 n( M0 {
0 w: d$ r) [0 F% M
9 |$ ]7 q5 k- L/ A8 N8 E7 ?
4 B4 |7 @* m- U+ E, d
$ } ~, B! V" w( s0 m" T
9 \$ G: C: E& o0 S/ r
2 p4 W( A/ [. N! H5 ` @* f
$ w! d. F, c/ n6 `' n: k& s
7 f( k0 @+ q1 J+ p, E
18
20
1848
CBOT
1
200 50000
supercycle
10
4 ]* N$ c& f. X% J9 o
, s9 Q3 C2 E: n# n8 C6 S( x1 L5 y X
& n- L6 _* G/ r. {
6 Q& ?5 }9 x! X% o
) {- H8 U$ T, h/ I( y V/ H( ~! q
2005 3
8
1 300 1 000
8 e r5 [2 Y: H( p: I
15~20
$ Q2 A4 K: [, q
option
hedge
4 g7 w# ?- ?0 @* \) c2 t
/ w1 B, W6 ~6 d. h- e, P5 w
6 J8 s7 N6 t/ G2 }( @' Q- V+ o
: _5 x1 ?/ B& E
: d8 M4 D! G) y6 Z
2005
113 400
2006
2006
5 30
4 X. m( Z$ y# _, X+ k. S
6 ~+ M/ i& l* y+ n8 c; ^* w
4~6
+ g6 o! v' o) h! W
* ]; A5 Z: s9 a0 G" [* G
: W* }4 |0 E2 r+ a, ]
3 d5 l/ N5 U% P
1991
& [' d! q- A3 C
10
1 b* V; T7 o. T# R0 n9 ?
% p% V" u1 G5 P) z# N
74 25
j# I# J; j$ G% f& ` `( Q4 `
# ~- J* o, Z6 J+ k$ k0 u2 R
emotionego,
O; y) m) ^7 N: s( m" T; @ D
_, a' u
% c1 P6 C! c& x8
X
stop order
12 10
* G$ [# S# P, `, q; j$ M* @
multiplier 10
11.20 5
10
72.08 72.09
10 72.10 20
72.08 500 71.58
0.50
* m$ d" O6 W, d0 Q
) V; j # D% Q
75.00 12 75.50
500 76.00
1 000 7 X* L3 A; d. Z( u) k
, W) U# P6 ~+ F
15.44 10
15.00 15.95
15.00 15.44
trailing
stop
- G# S+ x/ s% E V
1 ?# ~$ B4 S& d0 T
7 E-~; j
A 20 15 5 B 20 15
5
A 15
B 5 A
B
+ |9 G# i. g$ [
Greed is good
9 10
2 8 2
8
8 9
( D# A- E+ |: [' P
- _7 ~2 i% z6 _0 z
# M6 y2 Y. ~& @+
}
3 Z( w' r4 C( ~+ M
liquidityopen interest
* q9 h/ ]* Q# A9 n4 B! x7 N
, M1 w/ O8 J; l/ [
leverage
1
1 000
lock limit
1 I5 B& l* J$ y; a; i
' L& G; C) K7 Z. z+ R
NFA www.nfa.futures.org
% V& Y5 k2 [9 ?. E
NFA
Better Business Bureau
; T5 U5 _# T, K$ r8
W2 A. G& @& c' |
! Y0 W" I! x, l8 W- h4 I
$ M! r) I" l$ g/ n; |
+ @6 U
CFTCNFA) P, v# |1 V" f
@0 W" w
0 B! B* {/ E8 X! c7 D
6 [1 q
NFA
6
( t" o. ]9 b$ H$ _
10
!, r+ t& ^) D: \) _& W) h
3 n; W/ t, N4 |* m0 o% g
margin call
k: R( s! j3 {( ]
E/ p
50
10
5 w" A
) {9 a1 Q8 s$ U
; Q" {- F2 `; m4 |
1.
- ]4 j$ c. ?5 F& V9 F8 D" z% m( k
X
2.
$ q) xA( k* E6 P
3. Elliott
Wave Theory
impulse wavecorrective
wave! ( P, l$ F5 ^ {2 s
# O$ O2 H) K1 Y/ u7 o
1-2-3-4-5a-b-
c
A
3U
20 70
7 # u% \
! C. P# S0 r8 E7 y" M* C
80
20 70
d
1988
$ Z8 d
%
. P) J+ G5 v' ~
1929
GDP
4 w. O1 J4 s! f* s
1 V! z# W |- Z& a- q! U( P b
" k/ q! k% i# N
EIA
OPEC
8 T2 e+ j6 q0 ^, a+ A
& S$ _/ ^* L' X# o$ K0 ^! M$ `
commercials positions
% n/ F
unemployment claims
interest rates
)VU
5 J$ Z( b6 {; }) f2 k, y! [
cattle on feed
5 W- m& u: d4 Z* E
Crop Progress Report
8 v- @1 Sd
! I0 S5 ]; C7 i* k: `% h4 E
, R$ D, H1 B# Q; A
GTC
GTC
GTC
GTC
2 p) _. S3 A( I; M& T. P& t7 z" z
1 10 LCV7
R3 n: ] W) W2 D7 H
% O6 i) n" S# P
% c5 o* S. m' \8 t5 r: X9 Z0 z2 `0 W
5 q
9 |8 U3 u
) l) N L
90.32 1 10 LCV7
& e# y* _& f% @* y8 ^, V
625 11 626
625
624
# ]% ` n% c7 h5 T# Y0 v
3 O# {" c5 v- J% I; Q) c
0 J) J9 R2 f$ \( W. G0 K
/ A/ d0 m: W4 A# j9 Z% m, D
1 N" R; i& Y, D. e+ w! M; x
1 Z% U, u* O/ Z
90.21 1 10 LCV7, u* ~4 [# I7 n3 _" @- X- Y
% o1 Z$ H8 A( r1 Q
( J+ M% V+ T2 U; [1 U/ L' t
625
623
623
8 k3 ?0 ]" h2 _- _
' f9 `6 b. q" N( U- Z
stop limit
GTC
GTC
* K, n% M" V. c0 W5 \! {# j
90.32 1 10 LCV7
7 e5 w) U2 o
GTC
GTC
GTC
GTC
GTC
% ?" U7 ~. j#
D8 I! T) |, o
; W' O" C
8 6
100 1 6 1 8
1 _1 r^
1 6 1 8 & p/ k: ?. Z" V. ]
$ Z8 a8 q- I2 u+ G& D' H% W
100 8 * b/ P Q% ?- T( [
8
6 100
condor spreads
crack spreadscrush spreads
elongated butterflies
0 b* z! E T2 r
1 G* b9 _ f% g
& D+ l) ^9 _& @!
A
crack spread
/
/ k9 d8 J$ M* x
7 h: q a' j# P, d
* y/ k% n2 E+ p/
K1 \4 D+ s- n& J
/ R& P& m) P* U. o8 [
' ^+
, f+ J6 }9 V* O V
j7 u( a2 D. O5 s/ ]
6 k* N. |" D4 T% A- B
& G# |. q
; h. \6 m) i) @- z"
u$ \4 o7 P* I
( Q' N6 `2 Y, {: a
T: m. @6 H2 S3 g1 d. R
leg
. P3]! [$ d; ^
) y2 ~' j3 y/ l7 j: y
|* r% N" E) A
7
12 7 12
5 h.
2 w! @9 H1 X, t" p4 N: i4 k
R# p
# Fw
6 k& r" B9 P* e0 I8 E% [4 }
, a! O
. U: y8 b7 v) x9 R
. I7 I" k) J& E E
( b. p6 B7 m7 Q: ^
2 ~+ s/ p% D+ m! K
* X6 _& E: n% ^: T E
8 E9 z5 b7
1 o6 @
H9 _$ ]* m, ]- L
call option
put option
strike price
& R; h l5 s
/ P9 w$ b0 N. g7 a: K
: c2 U/ l' M; r1 v, Y6 ~! X
) C# w6 t! O
premium
& i- {2 E4 ^* E
, r3 Zl9 z
1 `. y, }!
P1 o* ?' b
; i4 Q1 \9 m& J-
C
9 _9 e! f+ w9 S
945
945
|0 \; a! U1 J- W. G
* `% O8 X2 s- l* u
& D [" m: e
+ [* X4 |7 w
^, ^
3 18
9 H! @- t0 N$ k, O
, K' Q; d
% M1 p9 {v) J
8 O!
s4 ^( _
( u0 O% A m& X q( ?! V
: l" I' F9 w
3 18
time decay
3
- o$ n8 b |- e/ Z, V; C
* S. a! J* H& l+ Y) D t
. ~+ M* [( y h9 G
" q% t8 q7 e3 ~
' z3 z; c% V9 T6 b$ c
' Y7 U# B2 ~2 }
1.
20
; J/ A: d w9 _* ~0 Y
2.
# h0 Q. v. K+ U# c" Q5 I: a0 E0 C
3.
4.
NFA
10
: F7 Q3 J: @+ D" |1 k/
@# z
5.
7
50 25
12
250 10 500
10 500
20 10
18 000
; B$
0 e+ e% T8
z- P3 E
5 u; U*
% r$ V
) _$ n* z* x
- O' m' w( I! C
; n1 E+ v7 }/
t
/ f/ F. {0 z&
10
# {' I+ o: [; Y8 K)
E9 @" x4 T- E! w$, [/ K
2 000
* S0 k3 h: b
X$ a: A
) r8 b*
k3
8 `0 y6 S3 X& @
%
80 900
0
899.50
S% Y
400
400 800
400
0 I# W" J/ A/ K; Y
0 p6 W7 n* _7 D) r, o: C' r
& l5 F2 J, j" N6 a9 a* u
1
3
8 m- j- \- x+ p8 t) ~2 P' I
4 \5 b7 ~! L. _3 j
65
( m) |/ A$ O: e; L$ d
200
2 000 3 000
65
75 10
10 000 20 000
* D* d* E% c$ X# ~% W7 z
100 100
& n& _4 l9 {! q4 s+ g6 [
* s+ [- _- c" i9 Y7 y2 _
1 h; W9 s+ b& Y
e( ~' x, f, O- c; z
O
;
* N; s$ t6 _
. w+
) H( q: E8 R
9 K# E_
* T R
$ h. D
2 f% |1 u5 e# I/
0 K8 Q+ u
3 E# R,
OB r
20
9^V
9 I+ s5 V% K- z. Y% n" z0 Z6 o/ G
6 r9 _& E- @8 c5) 5 N/ n
*
U1 B3 j
- E)
u; p7 @" \# j
q5 t" U; z
7 Z4 ~/ R3 W2 n0 z
1 E1 E& H2 I$ G: s9 y5 z
6 X/ N
2 s* B7 J* ^$ d+ x: r
# q* ^0 @9 ~8 w& h- R: _3 i! Q
CFTC
CFTC
9 q* l% G
20
U
CFTC
& \6 M. v( H# Q# s6 F+ H
0 X+ * r
500
8 z0 ?$ T) j$ f
* X, K! F% bM
% ^, l1 k0 e3
$ E6 K
6 S5 T2 B" f. z s( k
w
Michigans Consumer Sentiment Index MCSI
10
MCSI
3 [; h' a0 @
% x, V! h' {) Y/ y+ k5 @0 n
G u+ z
EIA
American Gas AssociationAGA
9 b3 x2 J' e6 ]2 V- h: P* H& @
OPEC
_
.
h* B& t( T& e# P
2 z9 L% |- p" C4 S$ ~% M1 i6 T' _
+ c+ M- D
( Z$ R
3 30
# J5 ? v4 z) M0 Y. b
% Y- B% b" i9 y
& ^- C! x" V/ k
9 |6 \4 yT& e`
1995
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
& U8 X7 k
6 {- K N/ K" ~+ B$ X* M* t
2 Q2 D8 Q!
`1 y/ W
*
R4 Q0 I# }
/9q
EIA 10
2006
! j9 r5 u4 N* a' B+ W. u
2006 11 175 11
180
175 180
5 J5 {+ u$ |0 v+ R
Steger Report
1.23 90
Louis Dreyfus 1.6
5SunkistTropicana
140
5 s8 f& r$ n5 s$ R
: }2 ]# W# k& @4 _' v: {2 B8 k* z
# t7 t, _5 Z) Q0 k/ A7 x
\) |/ I' e
2005~2006
: z, s; S( z( H4 H& Y2 x8 o
1991
1 S+ y, J% # G8 s0
; W2 Y; D8
1898
Chicago Butter and Egg Board
CME 48
% M8 S6 m o6 c; O9 l
V! J2 w0 k; Q Q+ T
0 k' m6 V0 Y$ V1 b
1917
20 40
CME
1976 9 X1 J: J'
u" v5 h$ E
1996 9 5 CME
CME
& f$ O# K5 Q8 F3 H8 _, _& A
Minneapolis
Grain ExchangeCME ECU
European Currency UnitFINEX 20 90
MTBE
/ J. A- s. _6 y
CBOT
CBOT Denatured Fuel Ethanol
single stock
futures
100500
1 v1 {/ [$ v" f9 T3 j&
& v8 k5 b: CO
: t
2b% b; b4 Y
' `.Y' e. z) @
London
International Financial Futures ExchangeLIFFEEuronext
Spanish Futures
and Options Exchange MEFF Bourse de Montreal
exchange
1982
Shad-Johnson 20 90
% d' ^5 t4 H* \7 B
CFTCSEC
- T; _* j8 d
b* E) s3 }, d
3 U" u* B+ b% K! u4 [4 T$ Y
911
100
i) Q8 S3 j6 P: x1 o
% |7 - x6 |$ F& R0 X7 D2 X8 @" F9 A; s
5 }% [3 v. I4 S4 y, G
' r) ~) d& b: I4 _: [; R" R
10
7 R8
* E! Y5 I9 Z" P+ q) O
# x& o+ a
7 P! B# t3 d1 w% f' l$ D2 L; p
20
2005
# q; d# ]* `3 [; K( a D
~$ E5 s/ m( K
20 90
1 K. N% \$ C, c1 I. Y+ I. d$ u
1997
80
L) F* K( T% I* p
5 P
Sydney Futures ExchangeSFESFE
SFE
3 Q* H* {- b+ n% Y
SFE
SFE
1 000 14
150
8 T- C/ ^5
v" c* `! z o
9 S. d! h) ]; ^% T
10 10
1 50 000
2
1
$
123
%
I) d% K% a1 f# {+?
5 000
+ O, p6 {+ Q/ S& d
, T" y3 f5 r" K
0 M
& L2 b:
2 [$ z& o7 S+ h/ t, v0 S
! c& R: n L. i0 s
/
! M+ P
/
J
2 X* d7 t9 H c
S&P
C
+ O( U' X" S6 K7 w+ q* ~! w
! 0 i2 J) y) h9 v9 O, c9 p/ o
$ x( X5 q9 U#
B$ Z, j2 ]$ h6 w& x U( i: `# Y) H G
1.
1991 NYMEX
100
: S, f2 Q/
150 000
; C. Y+ J2 X; Y" x)
i t
2.
( M7 X# T7 b @: _- v3 m( R
0 H3 {$ ]6 M/ N/ ~9 n7 \# b' K
8 c) E1 s M2 O! Z
3. 6 D1 L% \/ @4 H$ N2 [
5 `8 J y# U$ F" z4 i
: E. d' P2 k( ~; [+ d: g
50 000 36 000
4.
1
0 w" f- I' e: j7 l$ j" `
2r0 v3 h, q4 e$ M+ W' C) ~
3
9 [6 Q# h- q: o& j- x3 v% Y
4
* T8 m8 I* ~) l
5 ( e4 w: b5 o
" V8 F/ k, E1 z% W
5. ( m4
M) \$ _% j- _# s1 k0 Z
1 C7 g) `7 k, }/ v
- H) r% o' T-
`4 u7 }6 m
( {% @1 r( a% L! I- u! v& c8 ^
! f8 `7 q1 z4 C& O) M Y/ }6 R$ U, ?