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18

20

1848
CBOT


1
200 50000

supercycle
10

4 ]* N$ c& f. X% J9 o

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& n- L6 _* G/ r. {

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2005 3
8
1 300 1 000
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15~20
$ Q2 A4 K: [, q

option
hedge
4 g7 w# ?- ?0 @* \) c2 t


/ w1 B, W6 ~6 d. h- e, P5 w
6 J8 s7 N6 t/ G2 }( @' Q- V+ o

call optionput option


straddlestrangle
(
u- w- [# K: N& P' R! ?& r8 _


: _5 x1 ?/ B& E

: d8 M4 D! G) y6 Z
2005
113 400

2006

2006
5 30


4 X. m( Z$ y# _, X+ k. S
6 ~+ M/ i& l* y+ n8 c; ^* w


4~6

+ g6 o! v' o) h! W
* ]; A5 Z: s9 a0 G" [* G

: W* }4 |0 E2 r+ a, ]

3 d5 l/ N5 U% P
1991

& [' d! q- A3 C

10

1 b* V; T7 o. T# R0 n9 ?

% p% V" u1 G5 P) z# N

74 25

j# I# J; j$ G% f& ` `( Q4 `

# ~- J* o, Z6 J+ k$ k0 u2 R

emotionego,
O; y) m) ^7 N: s( m" T; @ D

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X


stop order

12 10
* G$ [# S# P, `, q; j$ M* @

multiplier 10
11.20 5
10
72.08 72.09
10 72.10 20
72.08 500 71.58
0.50

72.58 0.50 500 1


000

* m$ d" O6 W, d0 Q

) V; j # D% Q

75.00 12 75.50
500 76.00
1 000 7 X* L3 A; d. Z( u) k

, W) U# P6 ~+ F
15.44 10
15.00 15.95
15.00 15.44

trailing
stop

- G# S+ x/ s% E V
1 ?# ~$ B4 S& d0 T
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A 20 15 5 B 20 15
5
A 15
B 5 A
B


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Greed is good

9 10
2 8 2
8
8 9

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}

3 Z( w' r4 C( ~+ M

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liquidityopen interest

* q9 h/ ]* Q# A9 n4 B! x7 N
, M1 w/ O8 J; l/ [
leverage


1
1 000

lock limit

1 I5 B& l* J$ y; a; i

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NFA www.nfa.futures.org
% V& Y5 k2 [9 ?. E
NFA
Better Business Bureau

; T5 U5 _# T, K$ r8
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margin

10

!, r+ t& ^) D: \) _& W) h
3 n; W/ t, N4 |* m0 o% g
margin call

k: R( s! j3 {( ]

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50


10

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2.

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Wave Theory
impulse wavecorrective
wave! ( P, l$ F5 ^ {2 s
# O$ O2 H) K1 Y/ u7 o
1-2-3-4-5a-b-
c

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3U
20 70

7 # u% \
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80

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1988
$ Z8 d
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GDP

4 w. O1 J4 s! f* s
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American Petroleum InstituteAPI


Energy Information
AgencyEIA
( u2 R. ?5 a- L+ H/ q

GDP

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EIA

OPEC


8 T2 e+ j6 q0 ^, a+ A

Commitments of Traders COT


CFTC

volume and open interest

& S$ _/ ^* L' X# o$ K0 ^! M$ `

commercials positions

% n/ F
unemployment claims

interest rates

)VU
5 J$ Z( b6 {; }) f2 k, y! [

cattle on feed
5 W- m& u: d4 Z* E
Crop Progress Report

crop reports for orange juice


5~3 j$ `3 ]4 k; d
: ^+ x- H8
EIA EIA report for Oil
natural gas inventories EIA


8 v- @1 Sd

! I0 S5 ]; C7 i* k: `% h4 E
, R$ D, H1 B# Q; A

GTC

GTC

GTC

GTC


2 p) _. S3 A( I; M& T. P& t7 z" z
1 10 LCV7
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% O6 i) n" S# P
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5 q
9 |8 U3 u

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90.32 1 10 LCV7

& e# y* _& f% @* y8 ^, V

625 11 626
625
624
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90.21 1 10 LCV7, u* ~4 [# I7 n3 _" @- X- Y

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625
623
623
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2 R7 K5 {- m" O5 }" l# d' o



625 626
625 8 P- {1 r! n) j1 K

stop limit

GTC

GTC
* K, n% M" V. c0 W5 \! {# j
90.32 1 10 LCV7
7 e5 w) U2 o

GTCGTC open order


* x( C b; v# q5 w/ L1 i. p1 y

GTC
GTC

GTC

GTC
GTC

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8 6
100 1 6 1 8

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1 6 1 8 & p/ k: ?. Z" V. ]
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condor spreads
crack spreadscrush spreads

elongated butterflies
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call option
put option
strike price

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premium

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Federal Open Market


CommitteeFOMC&
C2 j O2 s* G3 R% d

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CFTC
CFTC

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20

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U.S. Department of Labor Bureau


of Labor Statistics
* m) }6 Q0 @: e7 H& r' i

500

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Michigans Consumer Sentiment Index MCSI
10
MCSI

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EIA
American Gas AssociationAGA

OPEC ' x0 n. R& L7 K9 ?+ I M

9 b3 x2 J' e6 ]2 V- h: P* H& @


OPEC

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.
h* B& t( T& e# P

2 z9 L% |- p" C4 S$ ~% M1 i6 T' _
+ c+ M- D

( Z$ R

3 30

# J5 ? v4 z) M0 Y. b

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& ^- C! x" V/ k

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1995
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
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6 {- K N/ K" ~+ B$ X* M* t

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EIA 10

2006

! j9 r5 u4 N* a' B+ W. u

2006 11 175 11
180

175 180

5 J5 {+ u$ |0 v+ R
Steger Report
1.23 90
Louis Dreyfus 1.6
5SunkistTropicana


140

5 s8 f& r$ n5 s$ R

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2005~2006

: z, s; S( z( H4 H& Y2 x8 o
1991

1 S+ y, J% # G8 s0

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1898
Chicago Butter and Egg Board
CME 48

% M8 S6 m o6 c; O9 l

V! J2 w0 k; Q Q+ T
0 k' m6 V0 Y$ V1 b
1917

1918 Food Control


Act 1919
1 f6 ~* k' b% Y) g
+ R2 p- o; b% d3 U+ D0 b4 s

1919 10
12
- M3 M8 ?8 Z8 g/ H9 K' H-
^

20 40
CME
1976 9 X1 J: J'
u" v5 h$ E


1996 9 5 CME

CME
& f$ O# K5 Q8 F3 H8 _, _& A

Minneapolis
Grain ExchangeCME ECU
European Currency UnitFINEX 20 90

MTBE

2004 34.1 2000


2007 2 w: v9 c) P# {
N4 U' a T- }3 h# w0 P

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CBOT
CBOT Denatured Fuel Ethanol

single stock
futures
100500
1 v1 {/ [$ v" f9 T3 j&

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2b% b; b4 Y
' `.Y' e. z) @
London
International Financial Futures ExchangeLIFFEEuronext
Spanish Futures
and Options Exchange MEFF Bourse de Montreal
exchange
1982
Shad-Johnson 20 90

% d' ^5 t4 H* \7 B

CFTCSEC

- T; _* j8 d

b* E) s3 }, d
3 U" u* B+ b% K! u4 [4 T$ Y
911

100

i) Q8 S3 j6 P: x1 o


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10

7 R8

* E! Y5 I9 Z" P+ q) O
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1998 William Daley


1

2005

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1 K. N% \$ C, c1 I. Y+ I. d$ u
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80
L) F* K( T% I* p


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Sydney Futures ExchangeSFESFE


SFE

3 Q* H* {- b+ n% Y

SFE

SFE

1 000 14
150
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10 10

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1991 NYMEX

100
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150 000

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