RANDOM VARIABLE

a real-valued function defined over a

sample space
assigns a real number to every sample
point of the sample space
a variable that assumes numerical
values associated with the random
outcome of an experiment, where one
(and only one) numerical value is
assigned to each sample point
Example
Consider the experiment of tossing two
balanced coins

Construct a tree diagram and determine the

sample space.
Define a random variable X that represents
the number of heads.
Determine the realizations of X.
Example
Consider the experiment of tossing a
six-sided die.
Determine the sample space.
Define a random variable X that represents
the number of the dots on the upturned
faces of the die.
Determine the realizations of X.
Types of Random Variables
discrete random variable - a random
variable that could take on only a finite or
countable number of possible values

continuous random variable - a random

variable that takes on real values from a
given finite or infinite set of values
Two Types of Random Variables
Discrete random variables
Number of sales
Number of calls
Shares of stock
People in line
Mistakes per page
Continuous random
variables
Length
Depth
Volume
11th
McClave, Statistics, Time
ed.
Chapter 4: Discrete Random
Variables Weight 7
Tell whether the random variable is discrete
or continuous.
a. Number of clients of an insurance agent
per month
b. Waiting time in an automated teller
machine (ATM)
c. Weight of a newborn baby
d. Number of students from among 200
nursing students who will join a medical
mission
e. Number of correct answers in a 20-item
multiple-choice quiz
Example: Classify the random variable and
tell the possible values

Experiment: Inspect 20 units of cellular phones

Random Variable X: Number of defective

cellular phones
Realizations of X: x = 0, 1, 2, , 20

Type of X: discrete
Example: Classify the random variable and
tell the possible values

Experiment: Get some rice from a 50 kg sack

Random Variable X: Weight of rice (in kg)

Realizations of X: [0, 50]

Type of X: continuous
Probability Distribution
A probability distribution is a list of
all possible outcomes together with the
probability of each.
A probability distribution for
discrete random variables is a table,
graph or a formula listing all possible
values of a discrete random variable
together with its corresponding
probability.
Probability Mass Function (pmf)
probability distribution of a discrete
random variable

possible values of a discrete random

variable are called mass points
Example
Consider the experiment of tossing a
six-sided die.
Find the probability mass function of X in
tabular form.
Draw a graphical representation of the
probability mass function.
Types of Probability Distributions
Discrete probability distribution
(probability mass function pmf) -
discrete random variable
X = outcome of rolling one die
X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Continuous Probability Distribution
(probability density function pdf)

7.23
Discrete Probability Distributions
Probabilities, P(x), associated with
discrete random variables have the
following properties.

X 1 2 3 4 5 6
P(X) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
7.24
EXPECTATION
The expected value or mean of the
random variable X , denoted by E[X] or
is the sum of all possible values of the
random variable, each weighted by its
probability, that is,

= E[X] = xp( x )
x
Examples
1. Let X be the number of heads obtained
in tossing two coins. Find the expected
number of heads.

2. Suppose a die is tossed. Find the

expected number of dots on the upturned
face of the die.
Example 1
Example 2
Standard Deviation of a Random Variable
Examples
1. Let X be the number of heads obtained
in tossing two coins. Find the variance
and standard deviation of this random
variable X.

2. Suppose a die is tossed. Let X be the

number of dots on the upturned face of
the die. Find the variance of X.
Example
Suppose that 3 boys are playing the game
'cara y cruz'. Each boy bets 2 pesos in a game.

Define the random variable to be the

amount of bet in this game.
Construct a probability distribution.
What is the expected win or loss in this
game? Is this a fair game?
What is the variance of this random
variable.
REAL LIFE APPLICATIONS

A fair game occurs if the expected

value of the gain (or loss) equals
zero.
Example
Suppose that in tossing 2 coins, you will
receive 50 if two heads appear.
Otherwise, you pay 30. Is this game
fair? Why?
Example
For the schools donation to the typhoon
victims, a fund-raising activity has been
organized. It involves The selling of 1000
raffle tickets. One ticket costs 100. The
lone winner of this raffle will receive free
tuition worth 30 000. What is your
expected net gain if you buy one raffle
ticket?
Let X be the amount of the net gain for
this fund- raising activity.
Net gain is the difference between the
amount to be won and the ticket price.
What are the possible values of X ?
*29,900 (if you win)
* -100 (if you lose)
You expect to lose 70 for each raffle
ticket you buy.
This is expected of a fund-raising activity
because the net gain is to be donated to a
good cause .
Laws of Expected ValueUseful to know
1. E(c) = c
* The expected value of a constant (c) is just the
value of the constant.
2. E(X + c) = E(X) + c
* The expected value of a random variable plus a
constant is the expected value of the random
variable plus the constant
3. E(cX) = cE(X)
The expected value of a constant times a random
variable is the constant times the expected value
of the random variable.

7.44
Laws of Expected ValueUseful to know

4. E(c1X1 + c2X2 + c3X3 + c4X4 + c5X5)

= c1E(X1) + c2E(X2) + c3E(X3) + c4E(X4)
+ c5E(X5)

7.45
Exercise
A life insurance policy gives a benefit of
2 000 000 for death caused by an
accident, 1 000 000 for death due to
other causes, 500 000 for permanent
disability, and zero benefit for no death
and no permanent disability . In the
event of death, a person who had already
applied for permanent disability benefits
would no longer be entitled to the death
benefit .
Application of RV and PMF
Questions
What is the probability that the profit in
Investment A is 1000?
What is the probability that the profit in
Investment B is 10000?
Compute the expected profit and
standard deviation of each investment.
Which investment is better and why?
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS

Discrete and
Continuous
Distributions

Discrete Continuous
Distributions Distribution

Binomial Hypergeometric Poisson Normal

Distribution Distribution Distribution Distribution
BERNOULLI TRIAL
An experiment which results in two
possible outcomes
One outcome may be labelled a
success and the other outcome may be
called a failure.
This experiment is called a Bernoulli
trial or a Bernoulli experiment.
Eamples of Bernoulli distribution
Let X be the number of heads obtained
in tossing a coin.
X can be 0 and 1 - getting a tail
(can be regarded as failure and head
(can be regarded as a success)

Suppose a newborn child is chosen at

random. Let X = 0 if the chosen child is
female, and X = 1 if male.
BINOMIAL EXPERIMENT
Consider the experiment consisting of n
independent and identical Bernoulli trials,
and observe the total number of
successes.
This experiment is called a binomial
experiment.
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Model for outcomes limited to two choices (e.g.
pass or fail, win or lose, sick or well, dead or
alive)
1. Each trial has only two possible outcomes
success or failure.
2. The outcome of each trial is independent of
the outcomes of any other trial.
3. Each trial is a Bernoulli trial
4. The probability of success, p, is constant
from trial to trial
(probability of failure: q = 1 p is constant)
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
The probability of an event consisting of x
successes out of n trials is
P(X = x) = nCxpxqn-x
= (n!/x!(n-x)!)px(1-p)n-x

where
n = number of trials in an experiment
x = number of successes, x = 0, 1, 2, , n
n-x = number of failures
p = probability of success
q = 1-p, probability of failure
~

Binomial Distribution
Mean of a binomial random variable:
= np
Variance of a binomial random variable
2 = npq = np(1-p)

X ~ Bin (n, p)
Example
The shooting average of Lebron James is
75%. Suppose that he attempts to shoot the
ball 12 times.
What is the probability that he will make
exactly 10 shots?
What is the probability that he will make at
least 11 shots?
What is the probability that he will make
more than two shots?
What is the expected number of shots and its
variance?
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

PROPERTIES of a HYPERGEOMTERIC
DISTRIBUTION
A random sample of size n is selected without
replacement from N items.
k of the N items may be classified as
successes and N k are classified as failures.
The number X of successes of a
hypergeometric experiment is called a
hypergeometric random variable.
Examples of Hypergeometric Variable
Suppose there are 20 members of a
committee consisting of 4 officers and 16
members. A random sample of 5 will be
chosen. Let X be the number of officers who
will be chosen.
In a factory, consider 10 television sets of
which 9 are nondefective and 1 is defective.
A random sample of 4 will be checked at
random. Let X be the number of defective
items among the random sample.
HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION

The probability distribution of the

hypergeometric random variable X, the
number of successes in a random sample
size n selected from N items of which k
are labeled success and N k labeled
failure, is
k N k
x n x
h( x; N, n, k ) , x 0,1,2,..., k
N
n
Exercise
A piece of electronic equipment contains six
computer chips, two of which are defective.
Three chips are selected at random, remove
from the piece of equipment and inspected.
a. What is the probability that there is no
defective computer chip found?
b. What is the probability that at most one
defective computer chip is found?
c. What is the expected number of defective
computer chips that can be selected?
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
Poisson Process/Experiment-
situations yielding numerical values of a
random variable X, the number of
outcomes occurring during a given time
interval or in a specified region
Properties of a Poisson Experiment
Poisson Occurrences/Experiments
Consider a random variable that gives
the number of occurrences over a
specified time or space
. X is a random variable with Poisson
distribution

~
is the average number of occurrences in
the specified time or space.
POISSON DISTRIBUTION
The probability distribution of the
Poisson random variable X, representing
the number of outcomes occurring in a
given time interval or specified region,
is
Poisson Distribution

Mean of a Poisson random variable

Variance of a Poisson random variable
2 =
Examples of Poisson Experiments
Counting the number of days classes are
suspended due to typhoons and floods in a
month
Counting the number of persons served in a
day in the baggage counter of a
supermarket
Counting the number of cracks for every
kilometer highway by an engineer
Counting the number of calls received in a
day by a certain call center agent.
Example
On average a certain intersection
results in 3 traffic accidents per
month. What is the probability that for
any given month at this intersection
a. exactly 5 accidents will occur?
b. From 4 to 6 accidents will occur?
c. at least 2 accidents will occur?
d. 5 or 6 accidents in half of a year?
e. Expected number of accidents?
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
continuous distribution
a random variable X is said to have a
normal distribution if its density
function is given by

1 x 2
1 2
f(x) e x
2
Normal Curve
PROPERTIES OF THE NORMAL CURVE

The normal is bell-shaped or mound-

shaped.
The normal curve is symmetric.
The normal curve extends asymptotically
to the right and to the left.
The total area under the normal curve
and above the horizontal axis is 1.
Standard Normal Distribution
distribution of the normal random
variable with mean 0 and variance 1

the density function of a standard

normal random variable Z is given by
1 2
1 2 z z
f(z) e
2
Z-score
standard score
Z value

x
z
Standard Normal Curve
Example:
A manufacturing plant uses 3000 electric light bulbs
whose life spans are normally distributed, with
mean and standard deviation equal to 500 and 50
hours, respectively.
1. How many bulbs in this manufacturing plant will last at
most 600 hours?
2. How many light bulbs in this manufacturing plant will last
for more than 600 hours?
3. What is the probability that a randomly selected bulb in
this manufacturing plant will last from 457 to 598?
4. After how many hours should the light bulbs be replaced if
the manufacturing supervisor wishes no more than 20%
of the bulbs to burn out between replacement periods?
Exercise:
A set of final examination grades in an introductory
statistics course was found to be normally distributed
with a mean of 73 and a standard deviation of 8.
1. What is the probability of getting a grade of 91 or less
on this exam?
2. What percentage of students more than 60?
3. What percentage of students scored between 81 and
89?
4. What is the score equivalent to 60th percentile?
5. The lower five percent of the students taking the test
scored higher than what score?
6. What interval encloses the middle 95% of the scores?
Exercise
A state grand lottery is conducted in
which six winning numbers are selected
from a total of 55 numbers. What is the
probability that if six numbers are
randomly selected:
a. All six numbers will be winning numbers?

b. Three numbers will be winning numbers?

c. None of the numbers will be winning

numbers?
Exercise

According to the U.S. Census Bureau,

approximately 6% of all workers in
Jackson, Mississippi, are unemployed. In
conducting a random telephone survey
in Jackson, what is the probability of
getting two or fewer unemployed
workers in a sample of 20?
Exercise

Bank customers arrive randomly on

weekday afternoons at an average of
3.2 customers every 4 minutes. What
is the probability of having more than
3 customers in a 4-minute interval
on a weekday afternoon?