CHAPTER 3

ANALYSIS OF RAIN RATE

EXCEEDANCE CHARACTERISTICS

3.1 Introduction
Most farmers, hydrologists and city planners need to know how much total
rain will fall in a given period: that is, the rain accumulation. Indeed, most weather
forecasts are given in terms of how much precipitation will fall (or accumulate) over a
given region. Rain accumulation is of big use to communication link designers,
however it is not the total rain fall but the rate at which the rain is falling (mm/hr)
which is important. Rain fall rate is measured by a rain gauge, the most common of
which is a tipping bucket rain gauge. This is fairly accurate between rain fall rates of
10 to 150 mm/hr [17]. Rate of rain fall can also be indirectly estimated from rain drop
size measuring instrument known as disdrometer. In the present study rain parameters
are worked out using disdrometer.

The long-term behavior of rain fall rate is described by a cumulative

probability distribution or by a cumulative distribution function (cdf). The cdf for rain
fall rate is commonly referred to as an exceedance curve. This gives a percentage of
time (usually the percent of 1 year) that the rain fall rate exceeds a given value.
Climate related parameters tend to be very variable. Rain accumulation can vary
significantly from year-to-year, as can the exceedance curves, particularly at the low
time percentages of interest to communication link designers [17].

3.2 Methodology
Fig.3.1 shows the methodology to achieve results of the first objective. As
shown in Fig.3.1, first block is disdrometer data which includes number of drops of
different sizes within successive 30 seconds interval. Formatting is done over data
collected by disdrometer to arrange data in such a format that will be easily
processable.
 Disdrometer Data

Data Formatting
Monthly / Annual

Rate of Rain Fall with

30 Sec. Integration Time

Cumulative Distribution of Rate of Rain Fall

Monthly / Annual

Rain Rate Exceedance Curves

Monthly / Annual

Worst Month Analysis

Fig.3.1: Methodology for Analysis of Rain Rate Exceedance Characteristics

Data is processed for analysis on annual and monthly basis. Annual analysis is
important for link reliability of desired % time of the year. Monthly analysis is useful
to get knowledge about the monthly variation of rain accumulation and worst month
analysis. Worst month analysis is important to find out the month in which
communication link suffers badly due to rain attenuation.

3.3 Disdrometer Data

The disdrometer data on rain drop size distribution, of the stations as
mentioned in Table 1.1 was supplied by SAC Ahmedabad for analysis. A Joss-

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Waldvogel impact type disdrometer (RD-80) (Joss and Waldvogel, 1967),
manufactured by M/s Distromet Ltd, Switzerland, has been used for data collection.
The measurements of DSDs were taken with a temporal variation of 30 seconds for
better resolution of rain rates. It converts vertical mechanical moment of the drops
into electric pulses. The sampling area of the outdoor unit measures 50 cm2. The
indoor unit consists of an analyzer ADA-90 which converts electric pulses into the
number of drops and sizes. The fall velocities of the drops with diameter
corresponding to each drop class, Di, have been taken as suggested by Gunn &
Kinzer [155]. The specifications of disdrometer are mentioned in Table 3.1.

The instrument has self noise control mechanism. When the ambient noise is
high, there is possibility of error in the count of smaller drops. During high rain rate, a
noise suppression circuit is activated which results in a reduction in the smaller drop
count. The effects of this error are less on rain attenuation and are within 5% error
limit [156]. Underestimation, at very heavy rain rate, can also be due to the finite time
required by the instrument to recover from a drop strike and be ready for the next
drop. This error is called dead time error and can be corrected using the correction
matrix supplied by the manufacturer. A third possibility of error is due to
accumulation of water on the sensor head which may change the calibration of the
sensor. Generally care is taken in mounting the sensor such that effects of acoustic
noise and wind are minimized. The disdrometer was installed at the roof top of a
building (5 m high) to minimize the known sources of error like acoustic noises [157].
Locations of disdrometer are such that the areas are free from any industrial or
acoustic noise.

3.4 Data Formatting

The data collected using disdrometer contains the information about the
number of spherical rain drops of different drop size classes as shown in Table 3.1.
To obtain rain rate exceedance characteristics calculation is done for estimation of
rain rate from the disdrometer data. Rain rate is a measure of the intensity of rain by
calculating the volume of rain that falls to ground in a given interval of time. The rain
rate is expressed in units of length (depth) per unit time (mm/hr), which is the depth

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of rain captured in a collection vessel per unit time. As rain intensity increase, the
drop size increases. Rainfall rate R is related to N(D) [155]:

6
R 4 vD D 3 N D dD (3.1)
10 0

where v(D) represents the raindrop terminal fall velocity in still air and D (mm) is the
equivalent spherical raindrop diameter.

The disdrometer data at each station were averaged on monthly and annual
basis in order to eliminate the randomly varying components and to obtain stable
distributions with reference to rain rate. The instantaneous rain data of each sample
were gathered in fourteen rain classes of interval 10 mm/hr each, ranging from
1mm/hr to 140 mm/hr as shown in Table 3.2. Typically rain rate varies up to 250
mm/hr but number of sample decreases as rain rate increases, after 140 mm/hr number
of samples was very less. In other hand rain rate up to 140 mm/hr is sufficient for 99.9
% reliable communication link. After the elimination of the randomly varying
components through averaging cumulative distribution of rate of rain fall has done.

3.5 Cumulative Distribution of Rate of Rain Fall

Cumulative distribution of rate of rain fall give an estimate of the total time,
over a long period, that rain rate can be expected to exceed a given amount. They are
normally presented with rain rate along the abscissa and the total percentage of time
that the rain rate was exceeded (the exceeded time) along the ordinate. The ordinate
normally has a logarithmic scale to most clearly show the exceedance times for large
values of the rain rate, which are often most important. Usually, the percentage
exceedance time is interpreted as a probability and the statistical exceedance curve is
taken to be a cumulative probability distribution function (pdf). Because of the
general periodicity of meteorological phenomena, cumulative distribution of rate of
rain fall covering several full years, or like periods of several successive years, are the
most directly useful. Rain rate exceedance characteristics alone give no information
about the frequency and duration of the periods of exceedance rather, only the total
time is given. The nature of rain rate exceedance characteristics, however, is such that

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the exceedance periods are usually of the order of minutes in length. Generally, the
yearly rain rate exceedance characteristics are used. But the monthly and worst month
analysis was also has great importance for reliable communication link [158].

T ABLE 3.1: DROP SIZE CLASSES AND F ALL VELOCITIES

Lower Average Fall velocity of Diameter

Drop Output code threshold diameter of a drop with interval of drop
size of processor of drop drops in diameter Di, size
class RD-80 diameter class i, v(Di), (m/s) class i, Di,
(mm) Di (mm) (mm)
1 1-13 0.313 0.359 1.435 0.092
2 14-23 0.405 0.455 1.862 0.100
3 24-31 0.505 0.551 2.267 0.091
4 32-38 0.596 0.656 2.692 0.119
5 39-44 0.715 0.771 3.154 0.112
6 45-54 0.827 0.913 3.717 0.172
7 55-62 0.999 1.116 4.382 0.223
8 63-69 1.232 1.331 4.986 0.197
9 70-75 1.429 1.506 5.423 0.153
10 76-81 1.582 1.665 5.793 0.166
11 82-87 1.748 1.912 6.315 0.329
12 88-93 2.077 2.259 7.009 0.364
13 94-98 2.441 2.584 7.546 0.286
14 99-103 2.727 2.869 7.903 0.284
15 104-108 3.011 3.198 8.258 0.374
16 109-112 3.385 3.544 8.556 0.319
17 113-117 3.704 3.916 8.784 0.423
18 118-121 4.127 4.350 8.965 0.446
19 122-126 4.573 4.859 9.076 0.572
20 127 5.145 5.373 9.137 0.455

T ABLE 3.2: R AIN RATE BINS

Rain Rate Bins

Bin No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Bin Size
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(mm/hr)
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

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3.5.1 Annual Rain Rate Exceendance Characteristics
The analysis of annual cumulative distribution of rain fall rate is done for all
five stations as shown in Table 1.1, separately because of the rain rate at desired
percentage time of the year can vary all over the country like India, which has
different climatic regions. Fig.3.2 to Fig.3.6 shows rain rate exceedance curves for all
five stations.

The rain rate for different percent (0.01%, 0.05% and 0.1%) time of the year
determined by rain rate exceedance curves as shown in Fig. 3.2 to Fig.3.6, are
tabulated in Table 3.3. the estimation of rain fade margin for a given link reliability
for example 99.99 % depends upon the rain rate exceeding that % of time. Rain rate
corresponding to the desired link reliability, can be calculated from the rain rate
exceedance curves and specific attenuation at that rain rate can be calculated from the
Specific attenuation model.

Fig.3.2: Annual Cumulative Distribution of Rain rate for Ahmedabad

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Fig.3.3: Annual Cumulative Distribution of Rain rate for Hassan

Fig.3.4: Annual cumulative distribution of rain rate for Kharagpur

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 Fig.3.5: Annual Cumulative Distribution of Rain rate for Shillong

Fig.3.6: Annual Cumulative Distribution of Rain rate for Thiruvananthapuram

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 T ABLE 3.3: RAIN RATE S TATISTICS FOR DIFFERENT % T IME OF THE YEAR

Rain rate (mm/hr)

Station Year 0.01% time of 0.05% time of 0.1% time of
the year the year the year

2006 76 38 22
Ahmedabad
2007 76 40 21

Hassan 2007 67 32 10

2006 54 22 13
Kharagpur
2007 102 70 53

2005 96 56 39

Shillong 2006 74 45 32

2007 64 38 26

2005 81 50 36

Thiruvananthapuram 2006 82 47 31

2007 64 30 20

3.5.2 Monthly Rain Rate Exceedance Characteristics

As discussed earlier monthly cumulative distribution of rate of rain fall is also

required to predict outage on monthly basis. Hence monthly variation of cumulative
distribution of rate of rain fall have been analysed with year-to-year variation. The
monthly rain rate exceedance curves for all five stations and for different years have
been plotted in Fig.3.7 to Fig.3.17. Annual cumulative distribution curve is also
plotted in the same graph for better understanding. Table 3.4 shows the annual and
monthly rain rate statistics.

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 Fig.3.7: Monthly and annual Cumulative distribution of Rain rate for Ahmedabad 2006

Fig.3.8: Monthly and annual Cumulative distribution of Rain rate for Ahmedabad 2007

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 Fig.3.9: Monthly and annual cumulative distribution of Rain rate for Hassan 2007

Fig.3.10: Monthly and annual Cumulative distribution of Rain rate for Kharagpur 2006

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 Fig.3.11: Monthly and annual Cumulative distribution of Rain rate for Kharagpur 2007

Fig.3.12: Monthly and annual Cumulative distribution of Rain rate for Shillong 2005

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Fig.3.13: Monthly and annual Cumulative distribution of Rain rate for Shillong 2006

Fig.3.14: Monthly and annual Cumulative distribution of Rain rate for Shillong 2007

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 Fig.3.15: Monthly and annual cumulative distribution of rain rate for
Thiruvananthapuram 2005

Fig.3.16: Monthly and annual cumulative distribution of rain rate

Thiruvananthapuram 2006

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 Fig.3.17: Monthly and annual cumulative distribution of rain rate
Thiruvananthapuram 2007

3.5.3 Worst Month Analysis

The worst month for attenuation by rain is that month within a year that has a
largest fraction of time during which the attenuation on a propagation path exceeds
some threshold of interest (largest time fraction of excess) [159]. The worst month is
not a specific calendar month but the month that produces the most outage for a
specified fade margin. It may be July in one year and August in another. The worst
month in any calendar year may vary from one month to another as the attenuation
threshold is changed. In climate regions with definite rainy seasons the months that
may possibly be a worst month may be confined to the rainy season.

For the prediction of worst month in rain data analysis, the rain rate
corresponding to 0.01% of the time has been found from annual statistics. Month
having the maximum outage corresponding to this rain rate is known as worst month.
Percentage outage time corresponding to this rain rate in the worst month has also
been determined for all the stations and tabulated in Table 3.4.

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TABLE 3.4: ANNUAL AND MONTHLY RAIN RATE STATISTICS FOR DIFFERENT YEARS
Rain Rate Monthly Analysis ( shows % time having rain rate as 0.01 % time of the year )
(mm/hr) at
Station Year
0.01% time
of the year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec.

2006 76 - - - - - 0.0049 0.0051 - - - - -

Ahmedabad
2007 76 - - - - - 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.003 - - -

Hassan 2007 67 - - - 0.0007 0.0008 - - 0.0005 0.0004 0.008 - 0.0005

2006 54 - - - - - - - - 0.0052 0.0045 0.0003 -

Kharagpur
2007 102 - 0.0001 - - 0.0016 0.0006 0.0044 0.0019 0.0015 - - -

2005 96 - - - - 0.0005 0.007 0.0007 0.0003 0.0015 - - -

Shillong 2006 74 - - - 0.0011 0.0018 0.0017 - 0.0047 0.001 0.0008 - -

2007 64 - - - 0.0008 0.0013 0.0046 0.0033 - - - - -

2005 81 - - - - - 0.0007 0.0035 0.0011 0.004 0.0003 - 0.0004

Thiruvananthapuram 2006 82 - - 0.0002 - - 0.0005 0.0009 0.0007 0.0013 0.006 0.0004 -

2007 64 - - - 0.0018 0.0024 0.0028 0.0017 0.0013 - - - -

I. Ahmedabad

The worst month for Ahmedabad is found to be July in 2006 and August in
2007 with rain rate 76 mm/hr for both the years. The rain rate 76 mm/hr exceeded for
0.0051 percent of time in July 2006 and for 0.004 percent of time in August 2007.
Worst month cumulative distribution of rain rate for Ahmedabad station is shown in
Fig.3.18.

II. Hassan

For Hassan worst month is found to be October in 2007 with rain rate 67
mm/hr. The rain rate 67 mm/hr is exceeded for 0.008 percent of time in October 2007.
Worst month cumulative distribution of rain rate for Hassan station is shown in
Fig.3.19.

III. Kharagpur

The worst month for Kharagpur is found to be September in 2006 and July in
2007 with rain rate 54 mm/hr and 102 mm/hr respectively. The rain rate 54 mm/hr
exceeded for 0.0052 percent of time in September 2006 and rain rate 102 mm/hr
exceeded for 0.0044 percent of time in July 2007. Worst month cumulative
distribution of rain rate for Kharagpur station is shown in Fig.3.20.

IV. Shillong

The worst month for Shillong is found to be June in 2005, August in 2006 and
June in 2007 with rain rate 96 mm/hr, 74 mm/hr and 64 mm/hr respectively. The rain
rate 96 mm/hr exceeded for 0.007 percent of time in June 2005, rain rate 74 mm/hr
exceeded for 0.0047 percent of time in August 2006 and rain rate 64 mm/hr exceeded
for 0.0046 percent of time in June 2007. Worst month cumulative distribution of rain
rate for Shillong station is shown in Fig.3.21.

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V. Thiruvananthapuram

The worst month for Thiruvananthapuram is found to be September in 2005,

October in 2006 and June in 2007 with rain rate 81 mm/hr, 82 mm/hr and 64 mm/hr
respectively. The rain rate 81 mm/hr exceeded for 0.004 percent of time in September
2005, rain rate 82 mm/hr exceeded for 0.006 percent of time in October 2006 and rain
rate 64 mm/hr exceeded for 0.0028 percent of time in June 2007. Worst month
cumulative distribution of rain rate for Thiruvananthapuram station is shown in
Fig.3.22.

For better understanding the complete worst month analysis is summarized in

Table 3.5 for all five stations and for all the years.

Fig.3.18: Worst month cumulative distribution of rain rate for Ahmedabad

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Fig.3.19: Worst month cumulative distribution of rain rate for Hassan

Fig.3.20: Worst month cumulative distribution of rain rate for Kharagpur

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 Fig.3.21: Worst month cumulative distribution of rain rate for shillong

Fig.3.22: Worst month cumulative distribution of rain rate for Thiruvananthapuram

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 T ABLE 3.5: WORST MONTH ANALYSIS

% time of the year rain rate

Station Year Worst Month
exceeded from threshold

2006 July 0.0051

Ahmedabad
2007 August 0.0040
Hassan 2007 October 0.0080
2006 September 0.0052
Kharagpur
2007 July 0.0044
2005 June 0.0070
Shillong 2006 August 0.0047
2007 June 0.0046
2005 September 0.0040
Thiruvananthapuram 2006 October 0.0060
2007 June 0.0028

3.6 Conclusion
As discussed earlier, India covers a huge area which includes different
climatic regions like desert, mountains, coastal areas etc. All these regions have
different rain rate statistics. There are many earth stations and terrestrial
communication links situated in those areas. For better reliability of communication
links, communication engineers require rain rate statistics of that particular region.
Analysis of rain rate exceedance characteristics provides the required information of
rain rate statistics. Results show the variation of rain rate at 0.01% time of the year
between 54 mm/hr to 102 mm/hr. The variation of rain rate has been analysed
according to the location, like Ahmedabad having no variation in the year 2006 and
2007, 0.01% time of the year rain rate is 76 mm/hr for both the years. Shillong has
variation of rain rate between 64 mm/hr to 96 mm/hr in 2005 to 2007.
Thiruvananthapuram has the rain rate variation between 64 mm/hr to 81 mm/hr during
2005 to 2007. A very large variation in rain rate at 0.01% time of the year is observed
in Kharagpur it is 54 mm/hr to 102 mm/hr in the year 2006 and 2007.

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 As discussed earlier monthly cumulative distribution of rate of rain fall is
required to predict outage on monthly basis. Table 3.4 shows the annual and monthly
rain rate statistics and Table 3.5 shows the worst month for all stations and all years.
The worst months for Ahmedabad were July and August for the year 2006 and 2007
respectively. For Hassan it was the month of October in the year 2007. September and
July were found as worst months for Kharagpur for the year 2006 and 2007
respectively. For Shillong June is the worst month for the years 2005 and 2007,
August for the year 2006. For Thiruvananthapuram September, October and June
were the worst months for the year 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively.

The above analysis shows that the worst month can vary year to year,
depending on the severity of the rain, for a particular station but it does provides the
information to the communication engineers about the possible link reliability or
fading likely to occur.

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