Page 1709 Investment Evaluation Date: September 2023 Topic Scarborough Town Centre ~ LRT vs. Subway Analysis Mini Benefits Case Analysis STATUS Draft Report PREPARED FOR: Policy & Planning, Finance PREPARED BY: Danie Fisher, Senior Advisor PhilOx, Anaist Investment Strategy & Projet Evaluation -Metrline ‘APPROVED BY: Michael Suthertand, Manager Investment Strategy & Project Evaluation - MetronPage 1800 Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary... 2- Introduction and Background... 2 3> The Case For Step Change Development at searboratigh 4 Value for Money.. 5 - Financing and Accounting Considerations .. 6 - Future Year Uncertainty: Option Values 7- Updated Scarborough Subway Proposal APPENDIX A — BASIS OF ASSESSMENT AND SENSITIVITY TESTS ...Page 1801 a- Executive Summary aa Pe 23 1h 1s 16 ay ‘An initial assessment to understand the relative merit of Subway and LRT technology on the Kennedy to Scarborough Corridor has been completed. The assessment has applied a streamlined Economic Benefit Case approach that has identified, ‘quantified and monetised the core differences between Subway and LRT technologies. These differences are summarised as follows: (2) Therelative subway cost compared to LRT is likely +$a8n (b) The subway speeds up the “in vehicle” component of many journeys due to less station stops (©) The subway slows down the “access” component of many journeys due to less station stops () The subway reduces the need for interchange at Kennedy Station (©) _The route of the LRT better serves existing and potential development in and around Scarborough Centre (The subway allows for a direct connection betwaen the Eglinton Crosstown LRT and ‘the future Scarborough-Malvern LRT (g) _The LRT option provides a cheaper possibility for future expansion to Malvern from Sheppard. (h) The subway option may cause additional congestion on the Yonge line with fewer options to remedy the congestion than the LRT option. Analysis of the above four components of impact suggest an overall Net Present Value for Subway of -$0.4Bn. The Benefit Cost Ratio is between 0.3 and 0.6 to 2. It is therefore not a worthwhile use of money. However, itis believed that Subway technology could unlock large scale development potential within Scarborough. It is estimated that approximately $58n of development (approximately equivalent of 20,000 condominium units, or 56 30-story towers) would be required to justify the additional costs of the Subway. No work to assess the market potential or feasibility for this scale of development has been completed Section 7 discusses the potential order of magnitude impacts of the September 4" Provincial announcement to use the existing SRT alignment and terminate the subway at Scarborough Town Centre. Next steps are recommended. “The following issues have not been considered as a part ofthis review: (2) _ The proposed Scarborough Subway Station is poorly located on McCowan in relation to the existing Scarborough Town Centre, reducing connectivity to the mall and civic square. (6) Theimpact of SRT replacement delay has not been assessed.