Proceedings of the 19th IAHR-APD Congress 2014, Hanoi, Vietnam

ISBN 978604821338-1

VARIATION ANALYSIS OF STORAGE VOLUME IN THE CANOABO RESERVOIR DURING THE

PERIOD 1993-2009, VENEZUELA
A. MRQUEZ (1), D. ROMERO (1), M. GONZLEZ (2) & E. GUEVARA (1)
(1)
Center of Hydrological and Environmental Researches of Carabobo University, Valencia, Venezuela,
ammarquez@uc.edu.ve; diego.romero50b@gmail.com, eguevara@uc.edu.ve
(2)
Laboratory of Water of Center Hydrologic Company, Valencia, Venezuela
miguelegonzalezp@cantv.net

ABSTRACT

In this study, the Canoabo reservoir storage volume variation is analyzed during the period 1993-2009. The analysis of
the time series is performed by representing the time series of volume and test application: autocorrelation, randomness
and prediction models. It was found that since the operation of the same; useful and total volumes have not been
overcome, so it never relieved design channels. It is evident that the storage volumes have fallen below the dead
volume. The ARIMA model (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) (2,2,1) has been found as the one that fits the
observations, however, the forecast model statisticals show significant differences between estimates and observations in
the validation stage.

Keywords: reservoir operation, time series, storage volume

1. INTRODUCTION
The Canoabo reservoir supplies water for human and
industrial consumption. The population benefited
includes: Ciudad de Morn (67,372 people), Municipality
of Puerto Cabello (181.905 people) and Moron
petrochemical complex as well as power plant "Planta
(1)
Centro". The Canoabo reservoir operation has been
The standard error for rk is calculated with the
influenced by the occurrence of environmental and
assumption that the autocorrelations have "disappeared"
structural of the dam problems. The quantity and quality
by the lag k; being equal to 0 at all lags greater than or
of water entering the Canoabo reservoir has decreased
equal to k. The standard error is calculated as follows:
due to the following anthropic actions: deforestation,
pollution and inappropriate land uses (livestock on
slopes), which have eroded and degraded large areas,
diversion of flow rates planting of crops, slash and burn,
poor management of solid waste and wastewater from
homes (Sevilla et al, 2009; Malpica,2012). (2)
In this study, the variation of the storage volume is
analyzed on Canoabo reservoir operation during the This standard error is used to calculate 100 (1-)%
period 1993-2009. The analysis of time series is made by probability limits around zero, using a critical value of
applying the following techniques: representation of the standard normal distribution:
volumes over time and its relationship to operating
activities; and an autocorrelation analysis of the volumes
in the time to detect whether there is a pattern in the data (3)
of operation and these can be fitted to a mathematical
model for prediction. ARIMA models

The ARIMA models (an acronym for "Autoregressive,

2. THEORETICAL DESCRIPTION
An important tool in the modeling of time series data is
the autocorrelation function. The autocorrelation at lag k
measures the strength of the correlation between
observations y for k periods. The sample autocorrelation
of lag k is calculated using Equation 1:
Integrated, Moving Average"), expressing the observation
at time t as a linear function of previous observations, a
term of the current error, and a linear combination of the
terms of the previous error .
The general form of the model is most easily expressed in
terms of the lag operator B, which operates in the time
index as a data BjYt = Yt-j. Using this operator, the model
takes the form:

1
 Table 1 Properties of Canoabo reservoir

Where: Properties Description

Initial operation 1.973
Type of Dam Rockfill with concrete screen in
Zt = Yt - (5)
the upstream slope.
Elevation of Dam Crest 282,00 meters above sea level.
t is a random error or crash the system at time t, usually Elevation of Normal Water 277,00 meters above sea level.
assumed normal with mean 0 and standard deviation a. Elevation of Maximum Water 280,00 meters above sea level.
For a stationary series, represents the mean of the Elevation of Dead Water 238,20 meters above sea level.
process. Otherwise, is related to the slope of the Elevation of Minimum
predictive function, it is sometimes assumed equal to 0. Operation 251,00 meters above sea level.
Guaranteed performance 55 million m3
The previous model is frequently represented as ARIMA
Total Volume 68,5 million m3
(p, d, q) x (P, D, Q) s This is several terms: A non- Useful Volume 65,9 million m3
seasonal auto-regressive of order p term. Differentiation Reservoir surface elevation at
nonseasonal order d. A term of non-seasonal moving 277.00 meters above sea level 534,00 hectares
average of order q. An auto-regressive order term Dead Volume 2,6 million m3
seasonal seasonal differentiation by P. D. A seasonal Type of spillway Ogee modified according
Abecasis
moving average term of order Q.
Elevation of cymatium 277,00 meters above sea level.
Maximum Discharge of
3. METHODOLOGY Spillway 129,00 cubic meters per second.
Work for water catchment Catchment tower with 5 pairs of
The Canoabo reservoir is located at the Northwest of gates
Carabobo state, on the northern slopes of the coastal Emergency Mechanism bottom gate
mountains, between following coordinates: 1025'N- Regulatory Mechanism Howell bunger valve 40''
1015'N 6821'W-6812'W. It has a surface of 14,508 ha
and flows to the Caribbean Sea. Figure 2 shows the time series for data storage volume of
Canoabo Reservoir, including 6.105 periods, with a daily
Table 1 is indicated the technical characteristics shown interval. The time period ranges from 01/01/1993 to
Canoabo Reservoir; which shows that the reservoir was 18/07/2009; which shows that in the period from
put into operation in 1973. The type of dam is rockfill 15/05/01 to 06/06/01, storage volumes have been lower
with concrete screen on the upstream slope. The than Dead Volume equivalent to 2,6 million cubic meters;
Elevation of Dam Crest is 282 meters above sea level. The where is appreciated that the Canoabo reservoir has been
Elevation of Normal Water is 277 meters above sea level. emptied (Colina, 2001).
The Elevation of Maximum Water is 280 meters above sea Figure 3 shows the time series is shown for data storage
level. The Elevation of Dead Water is 238, 20 meters volume Canoabo Reservoir, including 6.105 periods, with
above sea level. The Elevation of Minimum Operation is a daily interval. The time period ranges from 01/01/1993
251 meters above sea level. The Guaranteed performance to 18/09/2009; which shows that the volume of reservoir
is 55 million m3. The Total Volume is 68,5 million m 3. operation does not exceed Useful volume of 65.9 million
The Useful Volume is 65,9 million m 3. The Reservoir m3 corresponding design. According HIDROCENTRO
surface elevation at 277.00 meters above sea level is 534, (1996, 2009) demand is approximately equal to 87.868
00 hectares. The Dead Volume is 2,6 million m 3. The type m3/day: resulting lower than most of the stored volume
of spillway is Ogee modified according Abecasis. The over time. As to the drain reservoir, it is observed that the
Elevation of cymatium is 277 meters above sea level. The operation volume historically has not exceeded and
Maximum Discharge of Spillway is 129 cubic meters per overall useful volume.
second. The Work for water catchment is a catchment
tower with 5 pairs of gates. The Emergency Mechanism is
a bottom gate. The Regulatory Mechanism is Howell
Bunger valve 40.

4. RESULTS

Figure 1 shows the time series for storage volume data of

Canoabo Reservoir, including 6.105 periods of time, with
a daily interval. The time period ranges from 01/01/1993
to 18/09/2009; which shows that the Maximum Volume
value is 50.000.000 m 3, which is explained by a water
transfer from the Temerla river to Canoabo reservoir by
Figure 1 Time series of the storage volume of Canoabo Reservoir,
the transfer work represented by the dam on this river,
Venezuela
Corpocentro (2010). Varying flow is also observed as a
result of the annual dry and rainy seasons.

2

Figure 2 Storage Volume vs Sediment Volume (SV) of Canoabo
Reservoir, Venezuela
runs is equal to 26, compared with an expected value of
3052,5 if the sequence was randomized. Since the P -
value for this test is less than 0,05, it can be rejected the
hypothesis that the series is random, with a confidence
level of 95,0%. The second test counts the number of
times the sequence ascended or descended. The number
of such runs is equal to 484, compared to an expected
value of 4069,67 when the sequence was randomized.
Since the P - value for this test is less than 0,05, it can be
rejected the hypothesis that the series is random, with a
confidence level of 95,0%. The third test is based on the
sum of squares of the first 24 autocorrelation coefficients.
Since the P - value for this test is less than 0,05, it can be
rejected the hypothesis that the series is random, with a
confidence level of 95,0%.

Tabla 2 Randomness Tests

Tests Median Number Expected Statistical P-

of runs number z for large Value
above or of runs samples
below the
median
Runs above or 1,831E7 26 3052,5 77,4752 0
below the
median
Runs above or 484 4069,6 108,841 0
below
Box-Pierce 144279 0
(Test based
Figure 3 Storage Volume vs Useful Volume (UV) of Reservoir on the first 24
Canoabo, Venezuela autocorrelatio
ns)

In Figure 4 is shown the autocorrelation values estimated
between storage volumes for different delays (days). The
delayed autocorrelation coefficient k measures the
correlation between the values of volume at time t and at
time t-k. Probability limits of 95,0% are also shown
around 0. If the probability limits for a particular delay
do not contain the estimated coefficient; there is a
statistically significant correlation to that delay in the
confidence level of 95,0%. In this case, 120 of the 180
autocorrelation coefficients are statistically significant at a
confidence level of 95,0%, implying that the time series
can not be completely random (white noise).
Since the three tests are sensitive to different types of
deviations from random behavior, failure to comply with
these, suggests that the time series may not be completely
random.
Forecast
In an extended analysis of various models, it was selected
the model of an integrated ARIMA (2, 2, 1)
autoregressive moving average. This model assumes that
the best forecast available for future data is given by the
parametric model relating the most recent value with the
previous values.
The statistical significance of the terms in the forecasting
model is summarized in Table 3. Terms with P-values
less than 0,05 are statistically different from zero with a
confidence level of 95,0%. P-values for terms AR (1), AR
(2) and MA (1) are lower than 0,05, so that are statistically
different from 0.

Table 3 Summary of ARIMA Model

Parameter Estimated Error Std. t Valor-P

AR(1) -0,154496 0,0130763 -11,815 0,000000
Figure 4 Storage Volume vs Volume of Sediment (VS) Canoabo AR(2) -0,108441 0,0130593 -8,30371 0,000000
Reservoir MA(1) 0,963054 0,00362397 265,746 0,000000

Test for Randomness
In Table 2, the results of the application of three tests are
shown for determining whether the storage volume is a
random sequence of numbers or not. A time series of
random numbers is often called white noise because it
contains an equal contribution to various frequencies.
The first test counts the number of times the sequence
was above or below the median. The number of such
The performance of the ARIMA (2, 2, 1) model selected to
adjust historical data is summarized in Table 4. Showing:
root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error
(MAE) and mean error (ME). Each is based on statistical
forecast errors a-below, which are the differences
between the data at time t and the predicted value at time
t -1. The first two statistics measure the magnitude of the
errors. A better model would give a smaller value. The
last statistic measures the bias. A better model would

3
give a value closer to 0. In this case, the model has been
calculated based on the first 6100 data 5 data at the end of
the time series have been retained to validate the model .
In Table 3, the statistical error for both periods validation
estimation is shown. If the results are significantly higher
in the validation period, implies that the model does not
fit as well as expected otherwise, to predict the future.
Tabla 4 ARIMA Model Summary
Estimation Validation
Statistical Period Period
RMSE 319224 171928
MAE 87873,4 92425,1
ME 18,83 76684,5
5. DISCUSSION OF RESULTS
In general it is observed in Figure 5, a significant
variability in the values of the storage volumes of
Canoabo reservoir due to the irregularity of the same
operation. Thus, for a period between 01/01/2001 and
01/10/2001, a substantial reduction of storage volumes
can be seen to below the dead volume. As also, a rapid
increase in storage volumes; depending of the
implementation of a pumping system to transfer from
Temerla River to Canoabo Reservoir, which is evidenced
by the high values of volumes in the 2005 period. From
the above, it can be shown that Canoabo Reservoir has
been operated under conditions in which there is not a
pattern; making it difficult to fit a model for the operation
of this.
Regarding the ARIMA modeling method, the difference
between the observed data and the predicted data show
significant residues as a result of physical quantities
manipulated; finding ranges between 19.716,9 and
18.534,6 m3.
Figure 5 Storage Volume vs Sediment Volume of Canoabo
Reservoir
6. CONCLUSIONS
From the time series for modeling of Canoabo
Reservoir operation, confirmed that from the beginning
of its operation have not been reached the useful and
total volumes; therefore, it has not alleviated water
excess.
The time series shows evidence of declining storage
volumes below the dead volume, inferring that at some
period of the study; the reservoir was emptied.
With respect to the behavior of the operation of the
reservoir, the time series evidence that there is not a
pattern in the operation thereof; due to the occurrence of
abrupt increases and decreases in storage volumes.
The forecasting model ARIMA (2,2,1) was successfully
approached in the calibration step; however showed
significant differences in the stages of validation and
prediction.
7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The research was conducted at the Center for Water
Research and Environmental (CIHAM-UC) and
Laboratory of Water and Soil Quality of HidroLabToro
Consults, with financial support from the Ministry of
Popular Power for Science and Technology (FONACIT)
and Ministry of Popular Power for the Environment.
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