You are on page 1of 16

Capacity Planning

and Queuing Models


Capacity Planning Challenges
Inability to create a steady flow of demand to fully utilize
capacity

Idle capacity always a reality for services.

Customer arrivals fluctuate and service demands also vary.

Customers are participants in the service and the level of


congestion impacts on perceived quality.

Inability to control demand results in capacity measured in


terms of inputs (e.g. number of hotel rooms rather than guest
nights).
Queuing System Cost Tradeoff
Let: Cw = Cost of one customer waiting in
queue for an hour
Cs = Hourly cost per server
C = Number of servers
Total Cost/hour = Hourly Service Cost +
Hourly Customer Waiting Cost
Total Cost/hour = Cs C + Cw Lq

Note: Only consider systems where C

Queuing Formulas
Single Server Model with Poisson Arrival and Service Rates: M/M/1

1. Mean arrival rate:


2. Mean service rate:

3. Mean number in service:

4. Probability of exactly n customers in the system: Pn (1 )
n

5. Probability of k or more customers in the system: P(n k ) k


6. Mean number of customers in the system:
Ls

7. Mean number of customers in queue:
Lq
1
8. Mean time in system: Ws

9. Mean time in queue:
Wq

Queuing Formulas (cont.)
Single Server General Service Distribution Model: M/G/1
2 2 2
Lq
2(1 )

Mean number of customers in queue for two servers: M/M/2


3
Lq
4 2
Relationships among system characteristics:
Ls Lq
1
Ws Wq

1
Ws Ls

1
Wq Lq

Congestion as 10
.

100

With:


Then: Ls
1
10

8 Ls
6 0 0
0.2 0.25
4
0.5 1
2 0.8 4
0.9 9
0
0.99 99
0 1.0
Foto-Mat Queuing Analysis
On average 2 customers arrive per hour at a Foto-Mat to process film.
There is one clerk in attendance that on average spends 15 minutes
per customer.

1. What is the average queue length and average number of customers


in the system?

2. What is the average waiting time in queue and average time spent
in the system?

3. What is the probability of having 2 or more customers waiting in queue?

4. If the clerk is paid $4 per hour and a customers waiting cost in queue is
considered $6 per hour. What is the total system cost per hour?

5. What would be the total system cost per hour, if a second clerk were
added and a single queue were used?
White & Sons Queuing Analysis
White & Sons wholesale fruit distributions employ a single crew whose
job is to unload fruit from farmers trucks. Trucks arrive at the unloading
dock at an average rate of 5 per hour Poisson distributed. The crew is
able to unload a truck in approximately 10 minutes with exponential
distribution.

1. On the average, how many trucks are waiting in the queue to be


unloaded ?

2. The management has received complaints that waiting trucks have


blocked the alley to the business next door. If there is room for 2 trucks
at the loading dock before the alley is blocked, how often will this
problem arise?

3. What is the probability that an arriving truck will find space available
at the unloading dock and not block the alley?
Capacity Analysis of Robot
Maintenance and Repair Service
A production line is dependent upon the use of assembly robots that
periodically break down and require service. The average time between
breakdowns is three days with a Poisson arrival rate. The average time
to repair a robot is two days with exponential distribution. One
mechanic repairs the robots in the order in which they fail.
1. What is the average number of robots out of service?
2. If management wants 95% assurance that robots out of service will not
cause the production line to shut down due to lack of working robots,
how many spare robots need to be purchased?
3. Management is considering a preventive maintenance (PM) program at
a daily cost of $100 which will extend the average breakdowns to six
days. Would you recommend this program if the cost of having a robot
out of service is $500 per day? Assume PM is accomplished while the
robots are in service.
4. If mechanics are paid $100 per day and the PM program is in effect,
should another mechanic be hired? Consider daily cost of mechanics
and idle robots.
Determining Number of
Mechanics to Serve Robot Line
1. Assume mechanics work together as a team

Mechanics M $100 M $500 Ls Total system


Ls
in Crew (M) 2 Mechanic cost Robot idleness Cost per day

1/ 6 1/ 6
1/ 3 1/ 2
1 1/2 1/ 2 1/ 2 1/ 6
100(1)=$100 500(1/2)=$250 $350

1/ 6 1/ 6
2 1 1/ 6 1/ 5
1 100(2)=$200 11/ 6 500(1/5)=$100 $300

1/ 6 1/ 6
3 3/2 1/ 9 100(3)=$300 1/ 8 500(1/8)=$62 $362
3/ 2 3 / 2 1/ 6
Determining Number of
Mechanics to Serve Robot Line
2. Assume Robots divided equally among mechanics working alone

Identical $100 n $500 Ls (n) Total System


/n
Queues (n) /n Mechanic /n Robot idleness Cost per day
cost Ls
/n

1 1/ 6 1 / 3 $100 1/ 2 $250 $350

1 / 12 1 / 12
2 1/ 12 1/ 6 $200 1 / 5 500 (1/5) 2=$200 $400
1/ 2 1 / 2 1 / 12
Determining Number of
Mechanics to Serve Robot Line
3. Assume two mechanics work alone from a single queue.

Note: 3
1/ 6 1 Ls
4 2
1/ 2 3
= 0.01 + 0.33
= 0.34

Total Cost/day = 100(2) + 500(.34) = 200 + 170 =$370


Comparisons of System
Performance for Two Mechanics

1
Ws
Ls Wq Ws
Ls
System

Single Queue 1/ 6
1/ 5
with Team Service 11/ 6 6/ 5 =1.2 days 0.2 days

Single Queue
3
with Multiple 0.34 6 (.34) = 2.06 days 0.06 days
4 2
Servers

Multiple Queue 1 / 12
1/ 5
and Multiple 1 / 2 1 / 12 12 (1/5) =2.4 days 0.4 days
Servers
Single Server General Service
Distribution Model : M/G/1
2 2 2
Lq
2(1 )
1
1. For Exponential Distribution: 2
2
2 2 / 2 2 2 2
Lq
2(1 ) 2(1 ) (1 )

2. For Constant Service Time: 2 0


2
Lq
2(1 )

3. Conclusion:

Congestion measured by Lq is accounted for equally by


variability in arrivals and service times.
General Queuing Observations
1. Variability in arrivals and service times contribute equally to
congestion as measured by Lq.
2. Service capacity must exceed demand.

3. Servers must be idle some of the time.

4. Single queue preferred to multiple queue unless jockeying


is permitted.

5. Large single server (team) preferred to multiple-servers if


minimizing mean time in system, WS.
6. Multiple-servers preferred to single large server (team) if
minimizing mean time in queue, WQ.
Lq for Various Values of C and
C=1 C=2 C=3 C=4
0.15 0.026 0.001
0.2 0.05 0.002
0.25 0.083 0.004
0.3 0.129 0.007
0.35 0.188 0.011
0.4 0.267 0.017
0.45 0.368 0.024 0.002
0.5 0.5 0.033 0.003
0.55 0.672 0.045 0.004
0.6 0.9 0.059 0.006
0.65 1.207 0.077 0.008
0.7 1.633 0.098 0.011
0.75 2.25 0.123 0.015
0.8 3.2 0.152 0.019
0.85 4.817 0.187 0.024 0.003
0.9 8.1 0.229 0.03 0.004
0.95 18.05 0.277 0.037 0.005
1 0.333 0.045 0.007

You might also like