Professional Documents
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Prospect evaluation
Inger Fjrtoft
Purposes of prospect evaluation
by the government
4500
4400
4500
applicants/bidders
0 0,5 1
Km
The Norwegian licensing round
Announcement
Nomination Announcement Application Award
Negotiation
Recoverable resources
In-place resources
(HCPV at surface conditions)
trap reservoir
definition parameters
The rock volume
top surface
vertical
closure spillpoint
HC-contact
bottom surface
4500 4400
4600
4700 4500
4400
4500
Bottom surface
4500
4600
0 0,5 1
Km
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Troll Frigg Heimdal E. Frigg
A.
HCPV
(hydrocarbon pore volume)
trap reservoir
definition parameters
Reservoir description
top surface
Gross thickness
bottom surface
Net pay
NET PAY = a
b
The total thickness of c
all reservoir units (a-h) d
with e
f
porosity > threshold value
and
permeability > threshold value g
h
Porosity
15 %
10 %
...in order to
5%
establish the cut-off
value of efficient
0% porosity
0,1 1,0 10,0 100,0 1000,0
permeability (md)
HC-saturation
P (reservoir)
Reservoir T (reservoir)
conditions OIL V (reservoir)
In-place resources
In-place resources =
HCPV x Formation volume factor
Recoverable resources =
In-place resources x recovery factor
60 % 60 % Ekofisk
Eldfisk
Valhall
50 % 50 %
40 % 40 %
30 % 30 %
20 % Statfjord 20 %
Gullfaks
10 % Oseberg 10 %
0% 0%
76 80 82 85 91 94 73 76 80 82 85 91 94
1000
resources remaining in res.
recoverable resources
800
600
400
200
0
HCPV - prognosis vs result
There is clearly a tendency
to overestimate HCPV
The same conclusion can be
109 made for BRV, HCCOL, and
reservoir thickness
The wider result distribution
Results (Sm3)
HCPV
30
No. of Prospects
20
15 Result
10
probability
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
risk
Probability = 1 - Risk
Success rate
no. of hits
Success rate = no. of trials = 8/14 = 0.57
Probability categories
Stochastic probabilities
- measured values
- success rates, etc
Objective probabilities
- logical arguments,
- analogue events, etc
Subjective probabilities
- beliefs,
- guts feeling, etc
The independent risk factors
- NPDs risk factors
Probability of discovery:
P = P1 x P2 x P3 x P4
...where:
P1 - probability of efficient reservoir
P2 - probability of efficient trap
P3 - probability of efficient source &
migration
P4 - probability of efficient retention after
accumulation
Probability of discovery
P1:
deposition
of reservoir
P2:
trap
formation
P3:
generation,
migration and
accumulation
of hydrocarbons P4:
retention of
hydrocarbons
burial
after accumulation
Sum up - Main
principles
Independent risk factors for:
The probability of finding at least the
minimum quantity of hydrocarbons we
estimated in the resource assessment.
Probability of discovery
SUCCESS RATE
100 %
FUNNFREKVENS
40 %
20 %
PESSIMISTIC
0%
(0-19%) (20-39%) (40-59%) (60-79%) (80-99%)
FUNNSANNSYNLIGHET
PROBABILITY OF DISCOVERY
Prospect prognosis and drilling results:
Analysis of discoveries from 1990-2002
50%
In place (Mill. b o.e.)
45,000
40,000
Prognosis prior to drilling Status 2002
35,000
30,000
25,000
50%
20,000
15,000
35% 85%
10,000
5,000
0
Total Oil Gas