2002.07 KRUEGER & MALECKOVA Education, Poverty, Political Violence &amp Terrorism

NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES
EDUCATION, POVERTY, POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM:

IS THERE A CAUSAL CONNECTION?
Alan B. Krueger
Jitka Maleckova
Working Paper 9074

http://www.nber.org/papers/w9074
NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
July 2002
We thank Claude Berrebi for excellent research assistance, Eli Hurvitz, Ayoub Mustafa, Adib Nehmeh and
Zeina el Khalil for providing data, and Joshua Angrist, Fran Blau, Mia Bloom, Yinon Cohen, Jed Devaro,
Guido Imbens, Christina Paxson, Jessica Stern and Elie Tamer for helpful discussions and comments. The
views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic
Research.
© 2002 by Alan B. Krueger and Jitka Maleckova. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed
two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is
given to the source.
Education, Poverty, Political Violence and Terrorism:
Is There a Causal Connection?
Alan B. Krueger and Jitka Maleckova
NBER Working Paper No. 9074
July 2002
JEL No. J2
ABSTRACT
The paper investigates whether there is a causal link between poverty or low education and
participation in politically motivated violence and terrorist activities. After presenting a discussion of
theoretical issues, we review evidence on the determinants of hate crimes. This literature finds that the
occurrence of hate crimes is largely independent of economic conditions. Next we analyze data on
support for attacks against Israeli targets from public opinion polls conducted in the West Bank and Gaza
Strip. These polls indicate that support for violent attacks does not decrease among those with higher
education and higher living standards. The core contribution of the paper is a statistical analysis of the
determinants of participation in Hezbollah militant activities in Lebanon. The evidence we have
assembled suggests that having a living standard above the poverty line or a secondary school or higher
education is positively associated with participation in Hezbollah. We also find that Israeli Jewish settlers
who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank in the early 1980s were overwhelmingly from high-paying
occupations. The conclusion speculates on why economic conditions and education are largely unrelated
to participation in, and support for, terrorism.
Alan B. Krueger Jitka Maleckova

Woodrow Wilson School Institute for Near Eastern and African Studies
Princeton University Charles University in Prague
Princeton, NJ 08544 Celetna 20
and NBER 100 00 Praha 1, Czech Republic
akrueger@pucc.princeton.edu jitka.maleckova@ff.cuni.cz
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Table 1: Results of December 19-24, 2001 PCPSR Poll of West Bank and Gaza Strip, by Occcupation and Employment Status
Laborer, Merchant,
Craftsman & Farmer &
Question Student Employee Housewife Professional Unemployed
Q15. Do you believe that the bin

Laden group is the one that
hijacked the American planes
and destroyed the Twin Towers in
New York on 11 September? Yes or Definitely Yes 25.6% 14.4% 16.0% 16.7% 12.3%
No or Definitely No 53.8% 63.0% 56.6% 68.3% 64.5%
No Opinion 20.5% 22.6% 27.4% 15.0% 23.2%
Q16. In your opinion, are there

any circumstances under which
you would justify the use of
terrorism to achieve political
goals? Yes or Definitely Yes 41.0% 34.6% 36.0% 43.3% 38.4%
No Opinion 9.4% 7.3% 13.4% 8.3% 7.2%
Q17. Do you believe that armed

attacks against Israeli civilians
inside Israel so far have achieved
Palestinian rights in a way that
negotiations could not? Yes or Definitely Yes 66.7% 66.4% 58.2% 64.2% 63.8%
No Opinion 1.7% 2.1% 4.6% 6.7% 0.0%
Laborer, Merchant,
Craftsman & Farmer &
Question Student Employee Housewife Professional Unemployed
Q18. Concerning armed attacks

against Israeli targets, I…. Support or Strongly Support 89.7% 80.8% 82.0% 86.7% 73.9%
Oppose or Strongly Oppose 9.4% 16.0% 15.7% 10.0% 23.9%
No Opinion 0.9% 3.1% 2.3% 3.3% 2.2%
Q21. Would you support or

oppose a UN international
initiative to fight terrorism ? Support or Strongly Support 38.5% 34.9% 27.9% 35.0% 33.3%
No Opinion 2.6% 4.2% 8.2% 5.0% 2.9%
Q22-5.To what extent do you

agree or disagree to define the
following event as a terrorist
event: "The killing of 21 Israeli
youths by a Palestinian who
exploded himself at the
Dolphinarium night club in Tel
Aviv" Agree or Strongly Agree 12.0% 14.4% 15.9% 12.5% 18.1%
Disagree or Strongly Disagree 87.2% 81.9% 82.7% 80.8% 79.7%
No Opinion 0.9% 3.7% 1.4% 6.7% 2.2%
Q28. Concerning armed attacks

against Israeli soldiers in the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip,
I…. Support or Strongly Support 95.7% 93.4% 91.3% 94.2% 89.9%
No Opinion 0.9% 1.6% 0.9% 1.7% 0.7%
Notes: Sample size is 117 for students, 381 for laborers, craftsment and employees, 562 for housewives, 120 for merchants, farmers
and professionals, and 138 for unemployed. Percentages may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
Table 2: Results of December 19-24, 2001 PCPSR Poll of West Bank and Gaza Strip, by Educational Attainment
Level of Schooling:
Question Illiterate Elementary Middle Secondary Post-Secondary
Q15. Do you believe that the bin Laden

group is the one that hijacked the
American planes and destroyed the Twin
Towers in New York on 11 September? Yes or Definitely Yes 4.9% 11.6% 19.3% 18.8% 18.5%
No Opinion 37.0% 27.1% 21.9% 22.8% 15.7%
Q16. In your opinion, are there any

circumstances under which you would
justify the use of terrorism to achieve
political goals? Yes or Definitely Yes 32.3% 37.5% 36.9% 39.4% 36.4%
No Opinion 22.4% 9.2% 7.8% 9.2% 6.9%
Q17. Do you believe that armed attacks

against Israeli civilians inside Israel so far
have achieved Palestinian rights in a way
that negotiations could not? Yes or Definitely Yes 56.8% 63.3% 64.8% 63.3% 59.9%
No Opinion 6.8% 3.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.8%
Table 2 -- Continued Level of Schooling:
Question Illiterate Elementary Middle Secondary Post-Secondary
Q18. Concerning armed attacks against

Israeli targets, I…. Support or Strongly Support 72.2% 80.5% 82.1% 86.1% 81.5%
No Opinion 1.9% 2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 4.6%
Q21. Would you support or oppose a UN

international initiative to fight terrorism? Support or Strongly Support 23.6% 29.5% 32.0% 33.0% 42.4%
No Opinion 20.5% 4.8% 4.3% 3.0% 3.2%
Q22-5 To what extent do you agree or

disagree to define the following event as a
terrorist event: "The killing of 21 Israeli
youths by a Palestinian who exploded
himself at the Dolphinarium night club in
Tel Aviv" Agree or Strongly Agree 16.1% 18.8% 13.8% 13.6% 13.5%
Disagree or Strongly Disagree 78.3% 80.4% 84.1% 84.0% 83.3%
No Opinion 5.6% 0.8% 2.0% 2.4% 3.2%
Education Distribution 12.0% 18.7% 25.8% 27.4% 16.1%
Notes: Sample size is 1,345. Percentages may not add up to 100 because of rounding.
Table 3: PCSR Surveys on Economic Conditions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
Economic Economic Optimistic Pessimistic

situation situation about about
Unemployment better over worse over economy economy
Date Rate last 3 years last 3 years Next 3 years next 3 years
Mar 1995 38%

Mar 1996 49
Nov 1997 27
Jul/Aug 1998 26 37.5% 31.2% 50.8% 29.2%
Oct 1998 29
Nov 1998 24
Jan 1999 25
April 1999 20
June 1999 20
July 1999 18
Sept 1999 23 39.2 27.6 50.4 27.5
Oct 1999 17
Dec 1999 19
Jan 2000 23
Feb 2000 19 43.3 24.6 55.8 27.2
Mar/Apr 2000 17
Dec 2001 21
Source: PCPSR polls conducted at various times. Poll results are available from
www.pcpsr.org/survey/cprspolls/index.html.
Table 4: Characteristics of Hezbollah Militants (Shahid ) and Lebanese Population of
Similar Age
Deceased Lebanese
Hezbollah Population
Characteristic Militants Age 15-38
< Poverty 28% 33% p-value for chi-sq test =0.489
Education
Illiterate 0% 6%
Read and write 22% 7%
Primary 17% 23%
Preparatory 14% 26%
Secondary 33% 23%
University 13% 14%
High Studies 1% 1% p-value for chi-sq test =0.000
Age
Mean 22.17 25.57
[std. dev.] (3.99) (6.78)
15-17 2% 15%
18-20 41% 14%
21-25 42% 23%
26-30 10% 20%
31-38 5% 28% p-value for chi-sq test =0.000
Hezbollah 21% NA
Education
System
Region of Residence
Beirut 42% 13%

Mount Lebanon 0% 36%
Bekaa 26% 13%
Nabatieh 2% 6%
South 30% 10%
North 0% 22% p-value for chi-sq test =0.000
Marrital Status
Divorced 1% NA
Engaged 5% NA
Married 39% NA
Single 55% NA
Notes: Sample size for Lebanese population sample is 120,796. Sample size
for Hezbollah is 50 for poverty status, 78 for education, 81 for age (measured at
death, 129 for education in Hezbollah system, 116 for region of residence, and
75 for marital status. Chi-square test refers to a test of the null hypothesis
that the characteristic is independent of Hezbollah status.
Table 5: Logistic Estimates of Participation in Hezbollah
Dependent Variable is 1 if Individual is a Deceased Hezbollah Militant, and 0 Otherwise
Standard errors shown in parentheses
All of Lebanon: Heavily Shiite Regions:

Unweighted Estimates Weighted Estimates Weighted Estimates
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Intercept -4.886 -5.910 -5.965 -6.991 -4.658 -5.009

(0.365) (0.391) (0.230) (0.255) (0.232) (0.261)
Attended Secondary 0.281 0.171 0.281 0.170 0.220 0.279

School or Higher (1=yes) (0.191) (0.193) (0.159) (0.164) (0.159) (0.167)
Poverty (1=yes) -0.335 -0.167 -0.335 -0.167 -0.467 -0.500

(0.221) (0.223) (0.158) (0.162) (0.159) (0.166)
Age -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.082

(0.015) (0.015) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008)
Beirut (1=yes) --- 2.199 --- 2.200 --- 0.168

(0.219) (0.209) (0.222)
South Lebanon --- 2.187 --- 2.187 --- 1.091

(1=yes) (0.232) (0.221) (0.221)
Pseudo R-Square 0.020 0.091 0.018 0.080 0.021 0.033
Sample Size 120,925 120,925 120,925 120,925 34,826 34,826
Notes: Sample pools together observations on 129 deceased Hezbollah fighters and the general Lebanese
population from 1996 PHS. Weights used in columns (3) and (4) are the relative share of Hezbollah
militants in the population to their share in the sample and relative share of PHS respondents in the
sample to their share in the population. Weight is 0.273 for Hezbollah sample and .093 for PHS sample.
Table 6: Characteristics of Israeli Jewish Underground Terrorists in Early 1980s
Year of
Name Birth Occupation Underground Activity
Katriel Avinoam >1965 Army officer Related to the conspiracy attempt to blow
up the Dome of the Rock Mosque 1980.
Dan Be'eri 1945 Established an Related to the conspiracy attempt to blow

elemetary school in up the Dome of the Rock Mosque, 1980
Kiryat Arba, founder (left the group in 1982).
of the Barkai
educational method
Haim Ben-David 1952 Geography and Related to the conspiracy attempt to blow
history expert up the dome of the rock mosque 1980-82,
and participated in the attack on the
National Guidance Committee 1980.
Yeshua Ben-Shushan 1946 NA Instigated the conspiracy attempt to blow

up the Dome of the Rock Mosque 1980.
Yehuda Cohen NA Yeshiva student Carried out the reconnaissance on the

Temple Mount.
Yossi Edri NA Electrician Participated in the acquisition of the
clocks used in the attempt to blow up Arab
buses (April 27, 1984).
Yehuda Etzion 1951 Farmer and writer Prime mover of the Dome of the Rock
conspiracy and key figure in the attack on
the mayors.
Yitzhak Ganiram (Akaleh) 1945 Teacher and special Participated in the attack on the mayors,
education teacher for offered limited assistance in the Dome of
learning disabled the Rock conspiracy. Let the perpatrators
youth of the Islamic College killings use his car.
Aaron (Roni) Gilo NA Army captain Not member of the Underground. But
used his military position to aid those
involved in the attack on the mayors.
Benzion (Bentz) 1936 Religious scholar and Helped carry out the technical
Heineman farmer preparations of several underground
operations.
Boaz Heineman The owner of a farm Prepared explosives for the underground.
and carpentry shop
Continued
Table 6 -- Continued
Yaakov Heineman 1948 Air force combat pilot Played a limited role in the conspiracy
and a farmer. attempt to blow up the Dome of the Rock
Mosque, 1980.
Shlomo Liviatan NA Officer in the Judeans Played a limited role in the attack of the
Samaria Army mayors.
headquarters
Menachem Livni 1950 Engineer Participated in planning all operations

associated with the underground.
Uri Meier NA Farmer Participated in the aborted attack on

Bethlehem's Dr. Natshe.
Natan Natanson 1957 NA Involved in the attack on the mayors.
Menachem Neuberger 1965 Yeshiva student Participated in the intelligence gathering

stage of the attack on the mayors.
Barak Nir NA Teacher Participated in the attack on the Islamic

College and in the attempt to sabotage
the Arab buses.
Shaul Nir 1954 Engineer Involved in the Islamic College killings and
initiated the attempt to sabotage the Arab
buses
Yitzchak Novik 1948 Chemist, farmer Participated in the attack on the mayors.
Gilad Peli NA Farmer and Israel Helped in the attack on the mayors;
geography expert. helped in the Dome of the Rock
conspiracy.
Era Rappaport 1948 NA Participated in the attack on the mayors.
Hagai Segal 1957 Reporter and Participated in the attack on the mayors.
university student
Uzi Sharbaf 1960 Physical education Involved in the Islamic College killings and
teacher initiated the attempt to sabotage the Arab
buses.
Yosef Tzuria 1959 Computer Related to the conspiracy attempt to blow
programmer up the Dome of the Rock Mosque.
Noam Yinon 1957 Farmer Convicted of supplying explosives to Livni

and Shaul.
Moshe Zar 1937 Land dealer Was the driver in the attack on the
mayors.
Sources: Black and Morris (1991); Friedman (1992); Neff (1999) and Segal (1988).

2002.07 KRUEGER & MALECKOVA Education, Poverty, Political Violence &amp Terrorism

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2002.07 KRUEGER & MALECKOVA Education, Poverty, Political Violence &amp Terrorism

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NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES

EDUCATION, POVERTY, POLITICAL VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM:

Working Paper 9074

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

Alan B. Krueger Jitka Maleckova

"#)! %)0+! ^%)00/0&*+V! +)$'*! 60)+),&%$%),5! 6/1&%&.$118! +/%&($%),!

Q15. Do you believe that the bin

Q16. In your opinion, are there

Q17. Do you believe that armed

Q18. Concerning armed attacks

Q21. Would you support or

Q22-5.To what extent do you

Q28. Concerning armed attacks

Question Illiterate Elementary Middle Secondary Post-Secondary

Q15. Do you believe that the bin Laden

Q16. In your opinion, are there any

Q17. Do you believe that armed attacks

Question Illiterate Elementary Middle Secondary Post-Secondary

Q18. Concerning armed attacks against

Q21. Would you support or oppose a UN

Q22-5 To what extent do you agree or

Education Distribution 12.0% 18.7% 25.8% 27.4% 16.1%

Economic Economic Optimistic Pessimistic

Mar 1995 38%

< Poverty 28% 33% p-value for chi-sq test =0.489

Beirut 42% 13%

All of Lebanon: Heavily Shiite Regions:

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)

Intercept -4.886 -5.910 -5.965 -6.991 -4.658 -5.009

Attended Secondary 0.281 0.171 0.281 0.170 0.220 0.279

Poverty (1=yes) -0.335 -0.167 -0.335 -0.167 -0.467 -0.500

Age -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.083 -0.082

Beirut (1=yes) --- 2.199 --- 2.200 --- 0.168

South Lebanon --- 2.187 --- 2.187 --- 1.091

Pseudo R-Square 0.020 0.091 0.018 0.080 0.021 0.033

Sample Size 120,925 120,925 120,925 120,925 34,826 34,826

Dan Be'eri 1945 Established an Related to the conspiracy attempt to blow

Yeshua Ben-Shushan 1946 NA Instigated the conspiracy attempt to blow

Yehuda Cohen NA Yeshiva student Carried out the reconnaissance on the

Menachem Livni 1950 Engineer Participated in planning all operations

Uri Meier NA Farmer Participated in the aborted attack on

Natan Natanson 1957 NA Involved in the attack on the mayors.

Menachem Neuberger 1965 Yeshiva student Participated in the intelligence gathering

Barak Nir NA Teacher Participated in the attack on the Islamic

Noam Yinon 1957 Farmer Convicted of supplying explosives to Livni

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