Impacts of Global Warming

on Agriculture in Norhteast Asia

Graduate School of Life and Environmental

Sciences, Univ. of Tsukuba
Hayashi Yousay （林 陽生）
 Story line of this presentation
To maintain crop yield and quality under global warming, we can choose some
mitigations. The most practical technique is

However, in 2060s, projected paddy rice yield in Japan reduced by almost 85%
of the current level because of negative impact of rising temperature during
ripening season of paddy rice. Quality is also reduced down by 40%.

On the other hand, CO2 enrichment make it possible to push up the yield level by
around 15% - 20% in 2060s.

In actual phase, temperature rise and CO2 increase influence multiply on growth
of a plant. Then, unexpected reduction of yield will appear. This process is not
yet treated in model simulations.

If shortened solar radiation and higher temperature are coupled in the future
climates, another negative influence will affect on quality of paddy rice.
 Wheat: mid- to high-latitude

Sensitivity of cereal yield to climate change for wheat.

Orange dots: response include without adaptation
Green dots: with adaptation
(IPCC, 2007)
 Temperature Precipitation Solar radiation

+1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +6 (℃) 90 95 100 105 110 (％) 50 75 100 125 150 (％)

Changes of mean temperature, precipitation and

solar radiation in 2060s. (Hayashi et al., 2001)
 30

℃） (℃)
25 (1) Temp. at TPD
Air Temperature at becomes high in the
Day
20

移植時気温（
Transpranting southern part of Japan
15

10 (2) Varieties in the

northern area glow
5
within a shorter
0 period than in the

北九州・
平坦北部

広域沿海

薩摩半島
下越北

神奈川

東南部

八重山
石狩
上川
下北
中部
最上

加賀
南信
北部

西部
伊賀
県北
東部
北部
東予

県南
southern area.
North ← → South
2400
Under global warming …
Accumulated Temperature

2200

2000
These properties
℃）
day)
積算温度（

1800 provide an idea that

1600 permissible duration
(Degree

1400 of the cultivation

1200
calendar will be
1000
widen under the
global warming
北九州・豊前
平坦北部

広域沿海

薩摩半島
下越北

神奈川

東南部

八重山
石狩
上川
下北
中部
最上

加賀
南信
北部

西部
伊賀
県北
東部
北部
東予

県南

conditions.

北海道 東北甲信越 関東以西 早期

作柄表示地帯
Cultivation area (Hayashi & Ishigooka, 2002)
 1.6
Yield per unit solar radiation (Y /R s:g/M J)
N W side of H okkaido D . Y /R s = 1.28-0.0192(21.9-T )2
1.4 SE side of H okkaido D .
E side of T ohoku D .
E side of T ohoku D .
1.2 H okuriku D .
Koshinetsu D .
1.0 Kanto D .
Tokai & KinkiD .
C hygoku D .
0.8 Shikoku D .
Kyushu D .
0.6

0.4

0.2
21.9℃
0.0
10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
A verage tem perature over 40 days after heading （T :℃）
 Current 2030s

200
July

180

June
2060s 2090s 160

140
May

120

April
(DOY)

Distribution of best suited transplanting day for higher level of the yield
under current and future climate conditions (Hayashi et al., 2002)
Current 2030

800

750

2060 2090 700

650

600

(kg/10a)

Distribution of potential yield with optimal transplanting

date under current and future climate conditions (Hayashi et al., 2002)
CO2 enrichment (almost 50% raise) provides
around 15% - 20% increase in yield
an

Shizukuishi
ap
fJ
ao
Se

ean
Oc

Tsukuba
ific
Pac

Tokyo

FACE field
experiment

By K.Kobayashi
 The multiple effect by temp. and CO2 rise leads
unexpected lower yield than by their single effects

（Kim et al., 1996）

（Okada et al., 2009）
 Additional factors should be discussed by models
Decrease in amount of snow fall over mountainous regions and outflow by
melting in early season.
→ Loss of agricultural water resources.

Weakening of the Monsoon Circulation

→ Shift of rainy season and change of precipitation amount.

Increase in alternation of generation of harmful insects.

→ Pest and weeds control

Increase in frequency of extreme weathers

→ Cool summer damages even under the global warming
Thank you for your attention !