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A budget (from old French bougette, purse) is a financial plan and a list of all planned
expenses and revenues. A government budget is a legal document that is often passed by the
legislature, and approved by the chief executive-or president. The two basic elements:
Revenues and Expenses. Revenues are derived primarily from taxes and non-tax revenue.
Government expenses include spending on current goods and services, which economists call
government consumption; government investment expenditures such as infrastructure
investment or research expenditure; and transfer payments like unemployment or retirement
benefits, Social Safety nets.
1.1 Budget:
Budget is an estimate of costs, revenues, and resources over a specified period, reflecting a
reading of future financial conditions and goals. The term Budget is commonly understood
as a document presented by a government containing an estimate of proposed expenditure for a
given period. Government budget is a schedule of all revenues and expenditures that the
government expects to receive and plan to spend during the following year.
According to Prof. Rene Stourn, Budget is a preliminary approved plan of public revenue
and expenditure.
B.E Buck defines budget as a) Finance plan, b)A procedure formulating, authorizing,
executing and controlling this plan and c) some government authority responsible for each
successive step in this procedure.
a) Balanced budget:
Is a Government budget where the current expenditure equals current revenue. Most
government budgets are unbalanced almost always on the expense side, purportedly to spur
growth and reduce unemployment by creating demand with additional money supply.
In this budget which revenues are equal to expenditures. Thus, neither a budget deficit nor a
budget surplus exists. More generally, it refers to a budget that has no budget deficit, but could
possibly have a budget surplus.
b) Unbalanced budget.
The budget imbalance may be due to an excess of expenditure over income or an excess of
income over expenditure. Budget may either surplus or deficit. A surplus budget means a
budget when public revenue exceeds public outlay (R>E). A deficit budget means a budget
when public expenditure exceeds revenue (R<E). This budget again divided into two section.
Surplus Budget: If the government collects more revenue than it is spending, it is in surplus
Deficit Budget: If the Government spends more than it collects, there is a deficit.
Again the government budget is divided into
a) Revenue budget
b) Capital budget
1. Developmental Budget
(Taka in Crore)
6|Budget Analysis
Budget of Bangladesh in 2013-14 to 2015-16 Economic Years:
1.3 Analysis:
7|Budget Analysis
indicate that government has given more emphasis on development activity rather
than non-development sector. The budget for FY16 is BDT 2951.00 billion in size
which is 23.1% higher compared to that of the FY15 revised budget and the
largest of its history.
Estimated GDP growth rate for fiscal 2015-16 is 7.3%.If GDP growth in FY15 has
to be 7.3%, private investment (as % of GDP) has to grow from 21% to 25% (4-
5% percentage points or around Tk. 75,000 core additional amount of private
investment or USD 9.5 billion) in a single year. It is an impossible target. GDP
growth rate was estimated 6.5% for fiscal year 2013-14.
The budget has revenue target of BDT 2084.43 billion which is 27.6% higher than
that of the FY15 revised budget. Projected deficit of the budget is BDT 675.52
billion which is 5.0% of GDP and 29.4% of the budget. Non-development
expenditure is BDT 1645.71 billion which is 55.8% of the budget and development
expenditure is BDT 1025.59 billion, 34.8% of the budget. Sector-wise, Public
services has got the highest allocation (19.2%) followed by Interest Payment
(11.9%) and Education (10.6%) respectively.
Private sector credit growth for FY14 is reported to be 16.5% (11.5% as of March
2014). Inflation rate to come down to FY14 at 7.0% (7.5% in April 2014) and
target for FY15 is set at 6.0%. Export is expected to increase by 15% in FY15.
Import on the other hand is anticipated to grow by 15% in FY15. 10% growth of
remittances inflow is envisaged for FY15 ((-) 3.6% growth during Jul- May FY14).
Foreign exchange reserve at the end of FY14 will be $16.9 billion (20.4 billion on
3 June14).
The total ADP size in the Budget FY16 is BDT 970.00 billion which is 29.3%
higher than that of FY15 revised budget. In the ADP for FY16, 22.0% is
allocated to Human Resource sector (education, health and others), 25.3% to
overall agricultural sector, 19.1% to energy sector, 22.3% to communication sector
and the rest 11.4% is allocated to other sectors. The government has scaled up its
revenue generation target to BDT 2084.43 billion, a rise of 27.6% from BDT
1633.71 billion of the FY15 revised budget. The targeted revenue is 12.1% of the
GDP, down from 13.7% of GDP in previous fiscal year. Estimated 12.1% revenue
to GDP ratio is very low. Our Tax-GDP ratio (around 10.6% in the FY16
proposed budget) still lags behind many developing countries. This years budget
deficit is kept unchanged to that of the previous years budget at 5.0% of the GDP.
8|Budget Analysis
The total Budget deficit is estimated to be BDT 866.57 billion. Out of which
domestic source will finance 65.2% and external source will finance 34.8%. Out of
domestic sources, Govt. will borrow BDT 385.23 billion from the banking system,
which is 23.4% jump from the FY15 targeted bank borrowing (21.5% up from the
revised budget FY15).
9|Budget Analysis
2. Revenue:
Government Revenues refer to all receipts the government gets, including taxes,
custom duties, revenue from state-owned enterprises, capital revenues and foreign
aid. Government Revenues are part of government budget balance calculation.
Government of Bangladesh collects its revenue from various sources and they are
mainly categorized in two types, Tax Revenue and Non Tax Revenue. The income
of government through different sources is known as revenue or public revenue or
public income. These sources include income from taxes, fees, fines, gift and
grants etc.
A. Tax Revenue
Tax revenue mainly collected by National Board of Revenue (NBR) but
there are some other sources of taxes which are not collected by NBR.
a. National Board of Revenue (NBR) Tax
b. Non-NBR Tax
Narcotics and Liquor Duty
Taxes on Vehicles
Land Revenue
Stamp Duty (Non Judicial)
B. Non-Tax Revenue
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Dividend and Profit
Interest
Administrative Fees and Charges
Fines, Penalties and Forfeiture
Receipts for Services Rendered Rents, Leases and Recoveries
Tolls and Levies
Non-Commercial Sales
Defense Receipts
Other Non-Tax Revenue and Receipts
Railway
Post Offices
Capital Revenue
Domestic financing,
19.1%
Tax revenue(NBR),
59.8%
Non-tax revenue,
8.9%
Tax revenue(non-
NBR), 2%
11 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
Fig: Internal Revenue Target '16
25.00%
37.40% Corporate Tax
Import SD
11.20% Import VAT
Custom Duty
10.70% Local SD
12.20%
Local VAT
3.50%
2.2 Analysis:
The revenue budget pays for the normal functioning of the government and is
intended to be fully financed from domestically generated sources. Tax revenues,
almost half of them from customs duties, accounted for about 80 percent of
revenue receipts. Excise duties and sales taxes also were important, each producing
more revenue than taxes on income.
Most types of revenue have increased from 2013-14 to 2014-15. Tax on income
and profit is the major source of revenue, after that VAT hold second position,
supplementary duty is in third position which is decreased 0.59% in 2014-15 year
to 2013-14 year. NBR collect the lions share of revenue. Export duty is a minor
source of tax. Overall there is 9.25% increased in revenue collection between two
years.
.
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Analysis of Budget Revenue of 2013-14 and 2014-15 Economic Year of Bangladesh
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Capital Revenue 60 0.04 66 0.04
Total 1,67,459 100% 1,82,954 100%
14 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
2.3 NBR Tax Revenue
The budget for the FY16 has targeted BDT 1763.7 billion revenue from NBR tax
which is 84.6% of the target revenue. This is 30.6% higher than that of FY15s
revised budget. In the revised budget of FY15, this target was BDT 1350.28
billion which was 82.7% of total revenue. Of the total target, 37.4% will come
from income tax and corporate tax, 37.2% from Value Added Tax (VAT) and
25.4% from customs and supplementary duty. In order to achieve these targets,
automation in tax collection is set in to reduce complication in tax collection and
significant administrative reform has been done.
There is target for BDT 58.74 billion or 2.8% of total revenue to collect from Non-
NBR tax which is 3.5% of total revenue in the current fiscal. Revenue from non-
tax sources is estimated to be BDT 261.99 billion or 12.6% of total revenue which
was BDT 226.95 billion or 13.9% of total revenue in the FY15s revised budge
15 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
3. Expenditure:
The expenses incurred by the governments for its own maintenance, preservation
and welfare of the economy as a whole referred as expenditure or public
expenditure. The major cause of increase public expenditure is developmental
functions. Developmental functions include education, public health, social
security, irrigation, canal, drainage, roads, buildings etc.
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Sectors (for fiscal year 2015-16) Amount( core Percentage(%)
tk)
Industrial and economic service 2755 0.9
Recreation, culture and religious affairs 2283 0.8
Housing 2918 1.0
Public order and security 13630 4.6
Social security and welfare 16725 5.7
Public administration 56696 19.2
Defense 18383 6.2
Agricultural 19979 6.8
Health 12695 4.3
Energy and power 18540 6.3
Local government and rural development 20996 7.1
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Housing 0.8% 0.8%
Recreation , Culture and Religious 0.8% 0.8%
Affairs
Industrial and Economic Service 1.4% 1.2%
Pension 3.0% 3.4%
Subsidies 6.9% 6.6%
Miscellaneous Expenditure 9.5% 9.9%
3.2 Analysis:
In the proposed budget for FY16, total expenditure has been estimated at BDT
2951.00 billion. This is 17.2% of GDP and 23.1% higher than that of the revised
budget for FY15. The overall expenditure framework has been categorized into
three main groups based on their allocation of businesses. Power & Energy
allocation increased by 98.5% in Budget FY16. These are social infrastructure,
physical infrastructure, and general services. In the proposed budget, 23.4% of
total outlay has been allocated to social infrastructure, 30.6% to physical
infrastructure, and 28.0% to general services. Sector-wise, Public services, Interest
Payment, and Education and Technology have got preference having 19.2%,
11.9%, and 10.6% respectively. The allocation for non-development expenditure
has been set at BDT 1,645.71 billion. For development expenditure, it has been
estimated at BDT 1025.59 billion which is 6.0% of GDP and 27.4% higher than
that of revised budget of FY14. Size of proposed ADP allocation is BDT 970.00
billion which is an increase of 20.8% from the budget for FY15 and 29.3% higher
than revised budget for FY15. In ADP agriculture and rural development got the
highest priority (25.3% allocation). Transport and Communication, Human
Resource, and Power and Energy got 22.3%, 22.0%, and 19.1% of the ADP
allocation respectively.
18 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
Figure: Sector wise Expenditure of the budget 2015-
16 (in crore taka)
Interest, 35109
Transport and
Communication, 28700
Industrial and
Economic Service,
2755 Local Government and
Rural Development,
20966
Agriculture, 19979
Defense services,
18383
Public
Recreation, Culture Order and
and Religious Affairs, Safety,
2283 13630
Social Security
Housing, 2918 and Welfare, Education and
16725 Technology, 34370
Health,
12695
19 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
In 2013-14 economic year interest covers the largest share of expenditure and
education and technology cover the second position, public administration hold the
third position. On the other hand education and technology, and interest both cover
the largest position in expenditure sector but miscellaneous sector holds third
position. Housing and recreation, culture and religious affairs remain same for both
years which are in last position. On transport and communication, social security
and welfare, pension, sector expenditure is increased in between 2013-14 to 2014-
15 year. But the other sectors expenditures are decreased.
20 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
4. Deficit:
A budget deficit occurs when a government spends more money than it takes in.
The opposite of a budget deficit is a budget surplus.
The deficit in the outgoing fiscal year was Tk613.46bn and is now expected to be
Tk866.57bn in the next budget, according to the budget document.
BFY2015-16 RFY2014-15
4.1 Analysis:
In 2013-14 economic year total amount of the budget including developmental and
non development was 2224.9 million. From this government revenue was 1674.9
million. So there is 550 million deficits in the budget. Government is fulfilled this
deficit by foreign grants, domestic finance, foreign loan. But in 2014-15 economic
years total size of budget was 2505.06 million and deficit was 675.52.
The budget deficit for the FY16 will be BDT 866.57 billion or 5.0% of GDP.
Though budget deficit has increased by 13.6% from the revised budget of FY15,
deficit to GDP ratio hasnt increased. Deficit to GDP ratio in India, Pakistan and
Sri Lanka in the FY16 are 3.9%, 4.3% and 5.0% respectively. Considering that
21 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
Bangladeshs deficit is not that high, financing the deficit is challenging but
possible.
4.2 Analysis of Figure: Negative Trend of budget deficit and its share in GDP.
This Data is courtesy of tradingeconomics.com and in X-asis, its indicating the
respective financial year and on the other hand, in Y-asis, its showing portion of
deficit in GDP.
22 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
5. Finance:
Finance of budget is required to accomplish the shortage of the budget occurs from
expense more than revenue generation. The following table shows the contribution
of different sources to overcome deficit in fiscal year 2015-16. The data of fiscal
year 2014-15 is also given for comparative analysis.
23 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
% of Total
Budget Expenditure
2015-16
Name of the sources:
Overall Financing: 295,100 100.0
External Sources 30,134 10.2
Foreign Grants 5,800 2.0
Foreign Borrowing (Net) 24,334 8.2
Internal Sources 264,966 89.8
Revenue to finance Non Dev. Rev. Exp 164,571 55.8
Revenue Surplus 43,872 14.9
Domestic Borrowing 56,523 19.2
Borrowing from Banking System (Net) 38,523 13.1
Non-Bank Borrowing (Net) 18,000 6.1
5.1 Analysis:
Tax revenue from National Board of Revenue (NBR) is the major source of
financing. But in 2014-15 economic year Tax revenue (NBR) is increased 1.4%
than the past year. In 2013-14 economic year total revenue is 75.3% of budget and
other 24.7% resources was collected from different sources such as: domestic
finance, foreign loan, and foreign grants and among them domestic finance cover
the lions share. On the other hand in 2014-15 economic year revenue is 73.0 % of
total budget and other 27.0% was collected from different sources, they are
domestic finance, foreign loan, and foreign grants among them domestic finance
are major, which is increased 2.0% from the previous year.
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References:
Anisur Rahman, C. (2013). Bangladesh gets biggest budget in history with estimated expenditure
at 18.7% of GDP. GulfNews. Retrieved 26 March 2016, from
http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/bangladesh-gets-biggest-budget-in-history-with-
estimated-expenditure-at-18-7-of-gdp-1.1193975
Kareem. O. C, S., & Krishnan, D. (2011). Public finance (p. 29). Malappuam Kerala, India
673 635: school of distance education.
25 | B u d g e t A n a l y s i s
Budget Speech of the Honble State Minister of the Finance in the national parliament.
Website of the Parliament division (Bengali Version) and Finance Division (English
translated version).
Prothom-alo.com (English Version). Economy Page: Jun 30 2015, Jun 05 2015. Editorial
Page: June 06 2016.
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