Professional Documents
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We recently met Mr. Ajoy Misra, MD & CEO, and Mr. L. Krishnakumar, ED EDELWEISS RATINGS
and Group CFO of Tata Global Beverages (TGBL). Though tea contributes Absolute Rating NOT RATED
~74% to total branded turnover, TGBL has presciently transformed itself
from a pure tea company to a global beverage player. In its growth quest, it
has grown inorganically by acquisition of Tetley (UK) in 2000, followed by
multiple acquisitions & JVs in tea, coffee and water segments. From here
on, managements strategy to innovate & enter new geographies and exit
MARKET DATA (R: NA.BO, B: TGBL IN)
loss-making operations is bound to burnish prospects. Not rated.
CMP : INR 221
Target Price : NA
Prudent diversification to spur global play quest 52-week range (INR) : 228 / 114
TGBL, armed with 7 tea brands, is the second largest global player in the branded tea Share in issue (mn) : 631.1
segment. And, with tea contributing ~74% to branded turnover, it is a predominantly tea- M cap (INR bn/USD mn) : 143 / 2,206
focused player. However, TGBL is not resting on its laurels and has presciently changed Avg. Daily Vol.NSE (000) : 3,363.7
tack to shore up business. Case in point is the launch of green tea, RTDs, etc., in the tea
portfolio as growth in black tea head south. Moreover, recent acquisitions & JVs in coffee SHARE HOLDING PATTERN (%)
(Starbucks India, Eight Oclock in 2012) and water (acquired Himalayan in 2007, JV with Current Q1FY18 Q4FY17
PepsiCo in 2012 for water business) are ample proof of company incrementally Promoters * 35.6 35.8 35.7
diversifying its portfolio in its quest to become a global beverage play. MF's, FI's & BKs 18.2 19.0 19.2
FII's 15.0 15.9 15.7
Taking stock: Rationalising acquisitions Others 31.2 29.3 29.4
* Promoters pledged shares : Nil
In pursuit of growth, TGBL has made >10 acquisitions and entered multiple geographies. (% of share in issue)
Unfortunately, not all of these have yielded the desired result. Management has now
chalked out a strategy to turn around non-performing buys within a pre-defined time or
to restructure them or exit. This, in our view, entails twin benefits: (i) prune incremental PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
consolidated losses & capital employed not generating desired return; and (ii) free up Stock over
Sensex Stock
Sensex
management bandwidth for more productive pursuits.
1 month 4.6 0.2 (4.4)
3 months 2.0 19.1 17.1
Outlook and valuations: Improving fundamentals; NOT RATED
12 months 18.7 41.1 22.4
After a couple of years of consolidation, TGBL has embarked on a strategy to restructure
its operations by giving closer look at all its acquisitions. This coupled with timely
execution to achieve its strategic priorities will likely re-rate the stock. Any consolidation
with other consumer goods focused Tata group company will be another re-rating
trigger. At CMP, the stock is trading at 36.2x FY17 P/E. NOT RATED.
Financials Abneesh Roy
+91 22 6620 3141
Year to December FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
abneesh.roy@edelweissfin.com
Revenues (INR mn) 77,376 79,934 66,365 67,796
Rev. growth (%) 5.3 3.3 (17.0) 2.2 Alok Shah
+91 22 6620 3040
EBITDA (INR mn) 7,519 7,749 6,543 7,911 alok.shah@edelweissfin.com
Adjusted Profit (INR mn) 3,918 3,778 3,274 3,841
Adjusted Diluted EPS (INR) 6.3 6.1 5.2 6.1 Rajiv Berlia
+91 22 6623 3377
EPS growth (%) (2.3) (3.6) (15.1) 17.3 rajiv.berlia@edelweissfin.com
Diluted P/E (x) 34.8 36.1 42.5 36.2
ROAE (%) 6.8 5.7 4.1 6.3 October 30, 2017
Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelresearch.com,
Bloomberg EDEL <GO>, Thomson First Call, Reuters and Factset. Edelweiss Securities Limited
Consumer Goods
Key Highlights
i. Global beverage player
TGBL has grown more inorganically than organically. Commencing operations as a pure tea
player, it is now a key player in tea, coffee as well as water segment, not only in India, but in
multiple geographies.
Canada,
America &
Tetley Australia
29% (CAA)
23%
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
TGBLs domestic tea business revenue has clocked 11.6% CAGR over FY08-17.
Management expects this pace to sustain underpinned by new product launches as well as
shift in consumption from loose to packaged tea.
28,000
23,500
(INRmn)
19,000
14,500
10,000
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
The acquisitions have also enabled strong cross-pollination of brands as well as best
business practices in different geographies. For e.g., Tata Tea and Tetley are present in India
and both have created their nichewhile Tata Tea is largely strong in leaf tea category,
Tetley is strong in black and green tea.
Chart 3: Proportion of tea has increased from 70% to 74% over past 5 years
100.0
13 14 16 11 12
80.0 14 14
17 15 14
60.0 31 29
36 34
(%)
38
40.0
20.0 44 45
32 35 36
0.0
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
India tea brands Tetley Eight O'Clock Others & Specialty brands
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
Note Others include Good Earth (USA), Vitax (Poland), Jemca (Czech Republic), Teapigs, Water Business
(India), MAP (Australia) and other Branded Sales
The company is introducing many innovations and new products in value / mainstream as
well as Premium & Super premium segments to counter the decline in revenue from the
black tea segment. TGBL has launched Ayurveda Balanced Tea range and Tetley Super
Green Tea fortified with vitamins. It has also launched RTD Green Tea in Canada, Fruski in
the domestic market and Tetley Indulgence range of teas in UK.
TGBL is also entering a few large tea consuming Asian markets such as Singapore,
Malaysia and China. It has tied up with Alibaba to enter the B2C China market In China,
company is seeing a shift from green tea to black tea as a consumption pattern.
Management believes that, all this steps will not only cover up for revenue loss from
declining black tea trend but also bring profitable growth at TGBL level.
In coffee, the company owns ~57% stake in Tata Coffee, which has total cultivated area
of 25,226 acres and is one of Asias largest producers of coffee with ~10,000mt capacity.
Apart from this, TGBL also has strong position in the branded coffee business globally,
post acquisitions and JVs with coffee majors including Starbucks.
TGBL is now set to take its Himalayan brand of mineral water to USA, the fastest
growing water market in the world. To this end, the company has inked an agreement
with Talking Rain Beverage to distribute and market its brand.
The company has also entered into a JV with PepsiCo NourishCo to market and
distribute non-carbonated RTD beverages focussed on health & wellness. The JV
currently sells Himalayan, Tata Water Plus and Tata Gluco Plus in India. While Tata
Gluco Plus is available in TN, AP, Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra & Gujarat, Tata Water
Plus is sold primarily in TN and AP. In order to innovate and satiate consumers demand
for healthy non-carbonated drinks, Himalayan has launched flavoured water Orchard
Pure in 3 flavoursstrawberry, apple and peach. For FY17, the JV registered top line
growth of 29% YoY.
Strategic changes on the anvil: In order to circumvent the changing trends, TGBL has
announced some strategic changes as follows:
a. Base business rejuvenation.
b. Innovation drive.
c. Investment for growth.
d. Driving operational effectiveness.
TGBL will also focus on premiumisation in various categories. Further, in line with changing
consumer trends and to innovate products, the company will also focus on growing non-
black tea segment and health & wellness segments. To this end, the company has launched
Teaveda in India, Ayurvedic Balance in Canada, Tetley Super Greens in India & US, special
Infusion Coffee range in US, Indulgence range in UK, Tetley RTD in Canada and Fruski in India.
TGBL is also increasingly bringing innovation on the delivery channel and developing
alternate channels. Digital channel will also help bring convenience aspect for customers. To
this end, the company has tied up with Alibaba for its e-commerce sales in China, rolled out
a digital boutique for Good Earth teas in US, etc.
Moreover, TGBL is also expanding its white spaces by strengthening in tea and coffee
markets and exploring new growth avenues. This the company plans to achieve via:
a. Entry in new large tea consuming Asian markets such as Singapore, Malaysia and China.
b. White spaces in India consolidation position in Maharashtra with Gold mixture.
c. Expansion of super premium tea through Teapigs in new markets.
d. Entry of Himalayan water in US.
Operational effectiveness
In pursuit of growth, TGBL has made >10 acquisitions and entered multiple geographies.
Unfortunately, not all of these have yielded the desired result. Management has now
chalked out a strategy to turn around non-performing buys within a pre-defined time or
restructure them or exit. This, in our view, entails twin benefits: (i) prune incremental
consolidated losses & capital employed not generating desired return; and (ii) free up
management bandwidth for more productive pursuits.
The company has already announced its exit from loss-making geographies Russia
(negative net worth of INR560mn) and China (net worth of INR413mn, but net loss for last
financial year of INR204mn). Plus, it has also announced reassessment of stressed market
viz., Poland (negative networth of INR46mn).
Though management has not explicitly stated any financial impact arising from either of
these initiatives, structurally it is a positive move.
In order to drive effectiveness, TGBL will also evaluate all its cost items to determine scope
for cost saving avenues. This will improve EBITDA margins.
We deduce from the Chairmans stated objective an indirect hint of possible restructuring
/ merger between TGBL and Tata Chemicals of consumer goods business. This will bring
good distribution synergies since there is a huge distribution overlap, which can be
leveraged if all consumer focused products are housed in the same entity. We believe, if
this happens (depending on deal contours), it can potentially lead to structural re-rating of
Tata Groups consumer goods company due to: (1) more brands; (2) higher operating
leverage at store, sales level; and (3) higher mix of domestic business.
Financial Outlook
Key P&L parameters
Revenue for the past 4-5 years has largely remained flat owing to structural issues as
highlighted earlier, forex impact owing to brexit and IND-AS method of accounting revenues
requiring promotions to be netted off from revenues in FY16 and FY17.
90,000
80,000
(INRmn)
70,000
60,000
50,000
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Net revenues
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
In line with revenue growth, EBITDA and adjusted PAT too have largely been flat over the
past 5 years.
8,500
7,000
(INRmn)
5,500
4,000
2,500
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
EBITDA Adj. PAT
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
EBITDA margins
EBITDA margin has improved 120bps over the past 5 years.
11.5
10.5
(%)
9.5
8.5
7.5
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
EBITDA margins
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
Return ratios
RoE and RoCE (pre-tax) have been subdued owing to huge goodwill (~40% of balance sheet)
lying in the balance sheet. RoE, excluding goodwill, stands at 12.7% as at FY17.
10.0 17.0
8.0 14.0
(%)
(%)
6.0 11.0
4.0 8.0
2.0 5.0
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
RoE RoCE RoE (ex-Goodwill)
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
Key Risks
Slowdown in black tea market across geographies
Consumption of black tea is declining across key developed markets. Though consumption is
shifting towards specialty black tea and green tea, the rate of shift could be lower. Further,
due to specialty teas premium pricing, we believe volume growth could remain lower.
Company Description
TGBL is a natural beverages company with a heritage of innovations and development,
which aims to be the most admired beverage brand in the world. With a presence in over 40
countries, TGBL is globally the second largest branded player in the tea category with
growing interests in coffee and water. The companys key focus is to create magical
beverage moments for customers. This it achieves via leveraging consumer insights by
launching new & innovative products, expansion of global footprint by entering new
markets and through continuous investments to strengthen branded portfolio.
Source:
Source:
2012 Si gns JV wi th Starbucks ; Ei ght O'Cl ock coffee s i gns a greement wi th Green Mountai n Coffee Roa s ters Inc.
2014 Acqui res MAP Coffee, Aus tra l i a 's fa mous coffee bra nd; Acqui s i tion of s take i n Ri s i ng bevera ges compa ny
2015 Merger of MEMW wi th TGB; Pol a nd res tructure: Outs ourci ng tra di tiona l tra de
2016 Pa ki s tan re-s tructure
Chi na i ns tant tea -exi t ; Rus s i a re-s tructuri ng fi na l i zed ; Ta ta Coffee to s et up 5,000MT FDC pl a nt i n Vi etna m;
2017
Agreement renewed wi th new terms wi th Keuri g
Source: Company, Edelweiss research
Management Overview
Mr. N Chandrasekaran: Chairman
Mr. N. Chandrasekaran is the Chairman of Tata Sons, the holding company and promoter of
more than 100 Tata operating companies. An alumnus of the Regional Engineering College
(now NIT) Trichy, Mr. Chandrasekaran chairs the boards of several group operating
companies including Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Tata Power and Tata Consultancy Services
(TCS), of which he was Chief Executive from 2009-17. He was also appointed Director on the
Board of the Reserve Bank of India in 2016. He is an active member of Indias bilateral
business forums and has served as the Chairman of Nasscom.
He is a director on the board of several of the companys overseas subsidiaries and is also
the Chairman of the Board of Mount Everest Mineral Water.
Financial Statements
Income statement (INR mn) Balance sheet
Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 As on 31st March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Net revenues 77,376 79,934 66,365 67,796 Share capital 618 618 631 631
Cost of materials 36,775 38,373 36,216 35,616 Reserves & surplus 57,870 64,224 61,841 62,024
Gross profit 40,602 41,561 30,149 32,180 Shareholders funds 58,488 64,843 62,472 62,655
Employee expenses 7,880 8,577 8,051 8,350 Share suspense account - 13 - -
Advertisement & sales costs 14,023 13,256 5,775 5,847 Minority Interests 9,241 8,907 8,618 9,195
Manufac.and operating exp. 11,180 11,979 9,780 10,073 Long term borrowings 10,537 9,144 5,041 4,501
Total operating expenses 33,082 33,812 23,606 24,269 Short term borrowings 3,476 3,859 4,086 3,202
EBITDA 7,519 7,749 6,543 7,911 Total Borrowings 14,013 13,003 9,127 7,703
Depreciation & amortization 1,291 1,331 1,168 1,260 Long Term Liabi. & Provisions 2,991 2,609 2,991 2,157
EBIT 6,229 6,418 5,375 6,651 Deferred Tax Liability (net) 1,332 1,610 1,954 2,074
Less: Interest Expense 865 819 1,169 915 Sources of funds 86,065 90,984 85,161 83,784
Add: Other income 818 700 820 831 Gross Block (Tangible assets) 19,070 18,077 19,236 17,875
Add: Exceptional items 888 (1,300) (3,329) 53 Net Block (Tangible assets) 7,570 6,666 7,314 6,982
Profit before tax 7,069 4,999 1,698 6,620 Capital work in progress 594 339 331 604
Less: Provision for Tax 1,845 2,155 2,000 1,983 Intangible assets 2,360 2,739 2,272 3,107
Less: Minority Interest 290 257 (316) 654 Goodwill 41,882 38,043 37,096 34,979
Add: Share of profit from asso. (129) (109) (68) (89) Investment Property 712 701 687
Reported Profit 4,806 2,478 (55) 3,894 Total Fixed Assets 52,406 48,499 47,713 46,358
Less: Excep. Items (Net of Tax) 888 (1,300) (3,329) 53 Non current investments 6,079 15,837 11,225 12,847
Adjusted Profit 3,918 3,778 3,274 3,841 Deferred Tax Assets 869 712 1,168 620
No. of Sha. outstanding (mn) 618 618 631 631 Current investments 31 117 1,733 1,664
Adjusted Basic EPS 6.3 6.1 5.2 6.1 Cash and cash equivalents 7,252 5,625 5,010 5,748
No. of Dil. shares outstanding (mn) 618 618 631 631 Inventories 15,185 15,621 16,290 14,530
Adjusted Diluted EPS 6.3 6.1 5.2 6.1 Sundry debtors 6,543 5,811 5,924 5,925
Adjusted Cash EPS 8.4 8.3 7.0 8.1 Loans & advances 10,637 8,125 7,792 4,550
Dividend per share (DPS) 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 Other Current Assets 982 2,444 3,259 3,608
Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 29.0 57.3 (2,572.5) 38.0 Total current assets (ex cash) 33,347 32,000 33,266 28,613
Tax rate (%) 26.1 43.1 117.8 30.0 Trade payable 7,689 6,886 6,773 7,378
45.4 47.5 Other Current Liabilities & ST Prov.
6,230 4,919 8,182 4,688
Common size metrics- as % of revenues Total current liabi. & prov. 13,919 11,806 14,955 12,065
Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Net current assets (ex cash) 19,428 20,194 18,311 16,548
Cost of materials 47.5 48.0 54.6 52.5 Uses of funds 86,065 90,984 85,161 83,784
Employee expenses 10.2 10.7 12.1 12.3 Book value per share 95 105 99 99
Advertisement and sales costs 18.1 16.6 8.7 8.6
Manufac. and operating exp. 14.4 15.0 14.7 14.9 Free cash flow
Total operating expenses 42.8 42.3 35.6 35.8 Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Depreci. and Amortization 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 Reported Profit 4,806 2,478 (55) 3,894
Interest expenditure 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.4 Add: Depreciation 1,291 1,331 1,168 1,260
EBITDA margin 9.7 9.7 9.9 11.7 Add: Interest Exp.(net of tax) 863 815 1,155 913
EBIT margin 8.0 8.0 8.1 9.8 Others (2,825) 874 1,611 (180)
Net profit margins 5.4 5.0 4.5 6.6 Less: Changes in WC (84) 1,320 2,719 (1,525)
Operating cash flow 4,218 4,178 1,160 7,412
Growth metrics Less: Capex 1,457 1,789 1,463 1,324
Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 Free cash flow 2,761 2,390 (303) 6,088
Revenues 5.3 3.3 (17.0) 2.2
EBITDA (2.2) 3.1 (15.6) 20.9 Cash flow metrices
PBT 11.0 (29.3) (66.0) 289.9 Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Adjusted Profit (2.3) (3.6) (13.4) 17.3 Operating cash flow 4,218 4,178 1,160 7,412
EPS (2.3) (3.6) (15.1) 17.3 Financing cash flow (3,632) (3,924) (2,818) (8,158)
Investing cash flow (1,204) (1,749) 1,209 2,249
Net cash flow (619) (1,494) (449) 1,503
Capex (1,457) (1,789) (1,463) (1,324)
Dividends paid (1,876) (1,793) (1,871) (1,890)
Operating ratios
Year to March FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Total asset turnover 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8
Fixed asset turnover 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.5
Equity turnover 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.1
ADITYA
Digitally signed by ADITYA NARAIN
Aditya Narain DN: c=IN, o=EDELWEISS SECURITIES LIMITED,
ou=HEAD RESEARCH, cn=ADITYA NARAIN,
serialNumber=e0576796072ad1a3266c27990f
20bf0213f69235fc3f1bcd0fa1c30092792c20,
Head of Research
NARAIN
postalCode=400005,
2.5.4.20=6b7d777d3c8c77e0e2c454e91543f9f
4d9b8311cf0678cd975097fc645327865,
aditya.narain@edelweissfin.com st=Maharashtra
Date: 2017.10.30 14:46:34 +05'30'
Recent Research
Rating Distribution* 161 67 11 240 Buy appreciate more than 15% over a 12-month period
* 1stocks under review
Hold appreciate up to 15% over a 12-month period
> 50bn Between 10bn and 50 bn < 10bn
Reduce depreciate more than 5% over a 12-month period
Market Cap (INR) 156 62 11
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160
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principal place of business is located in India; (iii) all or substantially all of ESL's assets may be situated outside of Canada; (iv)
there may be difficulty enforcing legal rights against ESL because of the above; and (v) the name and address of the ESL's agent for
service of process in the Province of Ontario is: Bamac Services Inc., 181 Bay Street, Suite 2100, Toronto, Ontario M5J 2T3 Canada.