68

Example : Based on Exercise 2, Case

Mat., Page 35
A sequence of shots are being fired independently.
P(Success) = 0.2.
Exactly 10 shots are fired.
c) P(at least 1 hit in 10 shots)=?
d) P(at least 3 hits in 10 shots) =?
e) P(at least 3 hits in 10 shots| at least 1 hit in 10 shots) =?
 69

Binomial Random Variable

A binomial random variable is the number of successes
(or failures) in a fixed number of independent Bernoulli
trials.
 70

Binomial(n,p)
n independent trials with probability of success p

X = number of success

n x n x
P(X=x) = p (1 p) , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n WHY???
x

E(X) = np
Var(X) = np(1-p)
p.m.f.

EXCEL: BINOM.DIST(x,n,p,TRUE/FALSE)

c.d.f.
71
 72

Example : Based on Exercise 2, Case

Mat., Page 35
A sequence of shots are being fired independently.
P(Success) = 0.2.
Exactly 10 shots are fired.
c) P(at least 1 hit in 10 shots)=?
d) P(at least 3 hits in 10 shots) =?
e) P(at least 3 hits in 10 shots| at least 1 hit in 10 shots) =?
5 more shots are fired.
f) P(at least 3 hits in 15 shots)=?
What if the shots were fired from a different angle?
 73

Additive Property
If X~Bin(n, p) and Y~Bin(m, p) are independent, then
X+Y~Bin(n+m, p).

Example: Number of hits has distribution Bin(10, 0.2).

Try 5 more times. Number of hits now has distribution
Bin(15, 0.2).
Note: p has to be the same, and independence is
needed.
Note: The above also means that Bin(n,p) is sum of n
independent Bin(1,p), or Ber(p).
 74

Example
Assume that for a particular machine breaks down once
every month on average.

What is the probability that there are no breakdown in 3

months?
What is the probability of exactly one breakdown in 3
months?
 75

Poisson Distribution
Used to model rare events
Is an approximation of a Bin(n,p) random variable with
large n and small p such than np = is moderate

X = number of events: rate

x
P(X=x) = e x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!

E(X) = , Var(X) =

EXCEL: POISSON.DIST(x,,TRUE/FALSE)
 76

Additive Property
If X~Poisson(1) and Y~Poisson(2) are independent, then
X+Y~Poisson(1+2).

Note: Independence is needed.

 77

Example
Assume that for a particular machine breaks down once
every month on average. Assume that the no. of
breakdowns follow a Poisson distribution.
What is the probability that there are no breakdown in 3
months?
What is the probability of exactly one breakdown in 3
months?
 78

Example
What is the probability that there is exactly one breakdown
in the first two months and another one in the third month?

What is the probability that there is at least one breakdown

in the first two months and none during the last two months
during the three month period?
 79

Application
The incidence rate of mosquito-borne diseases in
Ahmedabad is 0.5%. Following table lists the incidence rates
in IIM Ahmedabad in the last 5 years. Is there a reason to
worry? Assume that approximately 1500 people live in the
campus.
Year Malaria cases Dengue Cases
2016 12 10
2015 15 12
2014 8 21
2013 10 10
2012 11 14
 80

Solution key
If IIM rate was same as the rest of the city, then No. of
cases per year ~ Poisson(1500*0.005 = 7.5)
But then, even for the lowest incidence (20, in 2013),
probability of seeing that value or worse, i.e., P(X20) =
0.0001, which is very small.
Hence there is a cluster of mosquito-borne diseases at
IIMA. Preventive measure is needed.