Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Subject:
Engineering Management And Law
Submitted To:
Mrs.Tahir Ishfaq
Submitted By:
Abbas Ali
Roll No:
01
1. Gantt Chart……………………………….3
1.1 Planning and Scheduling Complex Projects…….3
1.2 Sequential and parallel activities………………....3
1.3 Drawing a Gantt Chart………………………........4
1.4 Advantages and limitations………………………..6
2. PERT………………………………………...7
2.1 The Network Diagram………………………………..7
2.2 Steps in the PERT Planning Process………………...8
2.3 USING PERT TO SCHEDULE AND CONTROL A
PROJECT…………………………………………………10
2.4 Benefits of PERT……………………………………...14
2.5 Limitations………………………………………….....15
1.Gantt chart:
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A Gantt chart is a type of bar chart that illustrates a project schedule. Gantt charts
illustrate the start and finish dates of the terminal elements and summary elements of a
project. Terminal elements and summary elements comprise the work breakdown
structure of the project. Some Gantt charts also show the dependency (i.e, precedence
network) relationships between activities. Gantt charts can be used to show current
schedule status using percent-complete shadings and a vertical "TODAY" line as shown
here
When a project is under way, Gantt Charts help you to monitor whether the project is on
schedule. If it is not, it allows you to pinpoint the remedial action necessary to put it back
on schedule.
These dependent activities need to be completed in a sequence, with each stage being
more-or-less completed before the next activity can begin. We can call dependent
activities 'sequential' or 'linear'.
Other activities are not dependent on completion of any other tasks. These may be done
at any time before or after a particular stage is reached. These are nondependent or
'parallel' tasks.
You will end up with a task list like the one in figure 1. This example shows the task list
for a custom-written computer project. We will use this same example for both this
section and the section on Critical Path Analysis and PERT. This will allow you to
compare the results of the two approaches.
Step 2. Head up graph paper with the days or weeks through to task completion
Schedule them in such a way that sequential actions are carried out in the required
sequence. Ensure that dependent activities do not start until the activities they depend on
have been completed.
You can also use color to represent the different resource types that you need to use
such as programmers, or analysts.
Example
In the following example there are seven tasks, labeled A through G. Some tasks can be
done concurrently (A and B) while others cannot be done until their predecessor task is
complete (C cannot begin until A is complete). Additionally, each task has three time
estimates: the optimistic time estimate (O), the most likely or normal time estimate (M),
and the pessimistic time estimate (P). The expected time (TE) is computed using the
formula (O + 4M + P) ÷ 6.
A — 2 4 6 4.00
B — 3 5 9 5.33
C A 4 5 7 5.17
D A 4 6 10 6.33
E B, C 4 5 7 5.17
F D 3 4 8 4.50
G E 3 5 8 5.17
Once this step is complete, one can draw a Gantt chart or a network diagram.
A Gantt chart created using Microsoft Project (MSP). Note (1) the critical path is in red,
(2) the slack is the black lines connected to non-critical activities, (3) since Saturday and
Sunday are not work days and are thus excluded from the schedule, some bars on the
Gantt chart are longer if they cut through a weekend.
A common error made by those who equate Gantt chart design with project design is that
they attempt to define the project work breakdown structure at the same time that they
define schedule activities. This practice makes it very difficult to follow the 100% Rule.
Instead the WBS should be fully defined to follow the 100% Rule, then the project
schedule can be designed.
Although a Gantt chart is easily comprehended for small projects that fit on a single sheet
or screen, they can become quite unwieldy for projects with more than about 30
activities. Larger Gantt charts may not be suitable for most computer displays. A related
criticism is that Gantt charts communicate relatively little information per unit area of
display. That is, projects are often considerably more complex than can be communicated
effectively with a Gantt chart.
Gantt charts only represent part of the triple constraints of projects, because they focus
primarily on schedule management. Moreover, Gantt charts do not represent the size of a
project or the relative size of work elements, therefore the magnitude of a behind-
schedule condition is easily miscommunicated. If two projects are the same number of
days behind schedule, the larger project has a larger impact on resource utilization, yet
the Gantt does not represent this difference.
Because the horizontal bars of a Gantt chart have a fixed height, they can misrepresent
the time-phased workload (resource requirements) of a project. In the example shown in
this article, Activities E and G appear to be the same size, but in reality they may be
orders of magnitude different. A related criticism is that all activities of a Gantt chart
show planned workload as constant. In practice, many activities (especially summary
elements) have front-loaded or back-loaded work plans, so a Gantt chart with percent-
complete shading may actually miscommunicate the true schedule performance status
2. PERT
PERT was developed by the U.S. Navy, the Lockheed Corporation, and the consulting
firm of Booz, Allen and Hamilton to facilitate the Polaris missile project. As time was a
primary issue, this technique used statistical techniques to assess the probability of
finishing the project within a given period of time.
The PERT chart may have multiple pages with many sub-tasks. The following is a very
simple example of a PERT diagram:
PERT Chart
The milestones generally are numbered so that the ending node of an activity has a higher
number than the beginning node. Incrementing the numbers by 10 allows for new ones to
be inserted without modifying the numbering of the entire diagram. The activities in the
above diagram are labeled with letters along with the expected time required to complete
the activity
The activities are the tasks required to complete the project. The milestones are the events
marking the beginning and end of one or more activities. It is helpful to list the tasks in a
table that in later steps can be expanded to include information on sequence and duration.
This step may be combined with the activity identification step since the activity
sequence is evident for some tasks. Other tasks may require more analysis to determine
the exact order in which they must be performed.
Using the activity sequence information, a network diagram can be drawn showing the
sequence of the serial and parallel activities. For the original activity-on-arc model, the
activities are depicted by arrowed lines and milestones are depicted by circles or
"bubbles".
If done manually, several drafts may be required to correctly portray the relationships
among activities. Software packages simplify this step by automatically converting
tabular activity information into a network diagram.
Weeks are a commonly used unit of time for activity completion, but any consistent unit
of time can be used.
• Optimistic time - generally the shortest time in which the activity can be
completed. It is common practice to specify optimistic times to be three standard
deviations from the mean so that there is approximately a 1% chance that the
activity will be completed within the optimistic time.
• Most likely time - the completion time having the highest probability. Note that
this time is different from the expected time.
• Pessimistic time - the longest time that an activity might require. Three standard
deviations from the mean is commonly used for the pessimistic time.
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PERT assumes a beta probability distribution for the time estimates. For a beta
distribution, the expected time for each activity can be approximated using the following
weighted average:
Use the formula below to calculate the time to use for each project stage:
To calculate the variance for each activity completion time, if three standard deviation
times were selected for the optimistic and pessimistic times, then there are six standard
deviations between them, so the variance is given by:
[ ( Pessimistic - Optimistic ) / 6 ]2
The critical path is determined by adding the times for the activities in each sequence and
determining the longest path in the project. The critical path determines the total calendar
time required for the project. If activities outside the critical path speed up or slow down
(within limits), the total project time does not change. The amount of time that a non-
critical path activity can be delayed without delaying the project is referred to as slack
time.
If the critical path is not immediately obvious, it may be helpful to determine the
following four quantities for each activity:
These times are calculated using the expected time for the relevant activities. The earliest
start and finish times of each activity are determined by working forward through the
network and determining the earliest time at which an activity can start and finish
considering its predecessor activities. The latest start and finish times are the latest times
that an activity can start and finish without delaying the project. LS and LF are found by
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working backward through the network. The difference in the latest and earliest finish of
each activity is that activity's slack. The critical path then is the path through the network
in which none of the activities have slack.
The variance in the project completion time can be calculated by summing the variances
in the completion times of the activities in the critical path. Given this variance, one can
calculate the probability that the project will be completed by a certain date assuming a
normal probability distribution for the critical path. The normal distribution assumption
holds if the number of activities in the path is large enough for the central limit theorem
to be applied.
Since the critical path determines the completion date of the project, the project can be
accelerated by adding the resources required to decrease the time for the activities in the
critical path. Such a shortening of the project sometimes is referred to as project
crashing.
Make adjustments in the PERT chart as the project progresses. As the project unfolds, the
estimated times can be replaced with actual times. In cases where there are delays,
additional resources may be needed to stay on schedule and the PERT chart may be
modified to reflect the new situation.
Table 3 illustrates the project with three time estimates for each activity. While m
represents the most likely time for the activity, a suggests the optimistic estimate and b is
the pessimistic estimate. The estimated time and or standard deviation for each activity (
E ) are calculated from the formula for the flexible beta distribution. With a reasonably
large number of activities, summing the means tends to approximate a normal
distribution, and statistical estimates of probability can be applied.
Using these new estimates for activity duration, the activity paths through the system
have not changed, but the estimates of total time ( T ) are as follows:
A-E-F-J = 40.66 minutes
A-E-H-I-J = 53 minutes
B-C-D-E-F-J = 40.66 minutes
B-C-D-E-H-I-J = 53 minutes
B-C-G-H-I-J = 40.66 minutes
There are two factors that should be considered coincidental to the comparison of PERT
and CPM in the example. First, there are two critical paths of T = 53 minutes each in the
PERT analysis. Second, all the other paths have the same duration of T = 40.66 minutes.
These concepts are neither more nor less likely to happen under PERT as opposed to
CPM; they are strictly a function of the numbers in the estimates. However, the
serendipity of two critical paths allows us to address the issue of which would be
considered the more important of the two.
In Table 4, each of the critical paths is considered. Relevant to this analysis is the sum of
the variances on the critical path; note that summing variances
Table 3
Duration (minutes)
Description of Activity a m b Et Vt St
I. Cool second batch 5 10 11 9.33 1 1
J. Store cookies 2 3 10 4.00 1.78 1.33
Total times 58 90 114
Table 4
Variability of Project Activities (PERT)
Duration (minutes)
Path = A–E–H–I–J
Description of Activity
a m b Et Vt St
A. Preheat oven 12 15 18 15.00 1 1
E. Bake first batch 10 12 16 12.33 1 1
H. Bake second batch 10 12 16 12.33 1 1
I. Cool second batch 5 10 11 9.33 1 1
J. Store cookies 2 3 10 4.00 1.78 1.33
Total variance 5.78
Standard deviation 2.40
Duration (minutes)
Path = B–C–D–E–H–I–J
Description of Activity
a m b Et Vt St
B. Assemble, measure ingredients 6 8 12 8.33 1 1
C. Mix dough 2 2 2 2.00 0 0
D. Shape first batch 3 4 9 4.67 1 1
E. Bake first batch 10 12 16 12.33 1 1
H. Bake second batch 10 12 16 12.33 1 1
I. Cool second batch 5 10 11 9.33 1 1
J. Store cookies 2 3 10 4.00 1.78 1.33
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Duration (minutes)
Path = A–E–H–I–J
Description of Activity
a m b Et Vt St
Total variance 6.78
Standard deviation 2.60
is mathematically valid, while summing standard deviations is not. Path A-E-H-I-J has a
total variance of 5.78 minutes, while path B-C-D-E-H-I-J has a variance of 6.78. Thus,
path B-C-D-E-H-I-J, with the larger variance, is considered the riskier of the two paths
and should be the primary concern of the project manager. We assign the entire project a
variance of 6.78 minutes, and the standard deviation (the square root of the project
variance) is 2.60 minutes.
Armed with this project standard deviation, the next step is to estimate the probability of
finishing the project within a defined period. Applying the critical path time of 53
minutes to the normal distribution, the probability of finishing in exactly T = 53 minutes
is 50/50. The relevant formula for calculating the number of standard normal
distributions is as follows:
If C = 9:00 a.m., then Z = [(9:00 − 8:53) ÷2.60] = 7 ÷2.60 = 2.69 standard normal
deviations. Referring to a cumulative standard normal table, we find that Z = 0.99632, or
a 99.632 percent chance of finishing by 9:00 A.M.
If C = 8:50 A.M., then Z = [(8:50 − 8:53) ÷2.60] =−3 ÷2.60 = −1.15. In this case, we use
(1 − table value) for the probability = 1 − 0.87493 = 0.1251, or a 12.51 percent chance of
finishing 3 minutes earlier than predicted.
From a managerial viewpoint, it should be reiterated that there is only a 50/50 chance of
completing the project within the sum of the activity-time estimates on the critical path (
T ). This perspective is not emphasized in the CPM analysis, but is likely relevant in that
context also. Adding a buffer to the promised due date (where C > T ) enhances the
probability that the project will be completed as promised.
Both PERT and CPM rely heavily on time estimates, as derived from local experts, to
determine the overall project time. While the estimating process may intimidate local
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managers, this may suffice to produce an estimate that becomes a fait accompli, as
managers strive to meet the goal rather than explain why they failed to do so.
These two project management tools, frequently used together, can assist the project
manager in establishing contract dates for project completion, in estimating the risks and
costs of contingencies, and in monitoring project progress. Many commercial software
packages exist to support the project manager in tracking both costs and time incurred to
date through-out the project duration.
2.5 Limitations
The following are some of PERT's weaknesses:
• The activity time estimates are somewhat subjective and depend on judgement. In
cases where there is little experience in performing an activity, the numbers may
be only a guess. In other cases, if the person or group performing the activity
estimates the time there may be bias in the estimate.
• Even if the activity times are well-estimated, PERT assumes a beta distribution
for these time estimates, but the actual distribution may be different.
• Even if the beta distribution assumption holds, PERT assumes that the probability
distribution of the project completion time is the same as the that of the critical
path. Because other paths can become the critical path if their associated activities
are delayed, PERT consistently underestimates the expected project completion
time.
CPM models the activities and events of a project as a network. Activities are depicted as
nodes on the network and events that signify the beginning or ending of activities are
depicted as arcs or lines between the nodes. The following is an example of a CPM
network diagram:
CPM Diagram
From the work breakdown structure, a listing can be made of all the activities in the
project. This listing can be used as the basis for adding sequence and duration
information in later steps.
Some activities are dependent on the completion of others. A listing of the immediate
predecessors of each activity is useful for constructing the CPM network diagram.
Once the activities and their sequencing have been defined, the CPM diagram can be
drawn. CPM originally was developed as an activity on node (AON) network, but some
project planners prefer to specify the activities on the arcs.
The time required to complete each activity can be estimated using past experience or the
estimates of knowledgeable persons. CPM is a deterministic model that does not take into
account variation in the completion time, so only one number is used for an activity's
time estimate.
The critical path is the longest-duration path through the network. The significance of the
critical path is that the activities that lie on it cannot be delayed without delaying the
project. Because of its impact on the entire project, critical path analysis is an important
aspect of project planning.
The critical path can be identified by determining the following four parameters for each
activity:
• ES - earliest start time: the earliest time at which the activity can start given that
its precedent activities must be completed first.
• EF - earliest finish time, equal to the earliest start time for the activity plus the
time required to complete the activity.
• LF - latest finish time: the latest time at which the activity can be completed
without delaying the project.
• LS - latest start time, equal to the latest finish time minus the time required to
complete the activity.
The slack time for an activity is the time between its earliest and latest start time, or
between its earliest and latest finish time. Slack is the amount of time that an activity can
be delayed past its earliest start or earliest finish without delaying the project.
The critical path is the path through the project network in which none of the activities
have slack, that is, the path for which ES=LS and EF=LF for all activities in the path. A
delay in the critical path delays the project. Similarly, to accelerate the project it is
necessary to reduce the total time required for the activities in the critical path.
As the project progresses, the actual task completion times will be known and the
network diagram can be updated to include this information.
For the project example used here, you will end up with the same task list as explained in
the article on Gantt Charts The chart is repeated in Figure 1 below:
In these, circles show events within the project, such as the start and finish of tasks. The
number shown in the left hand half of the circle allows you to identify each one easily.
Circles are sometimes known as nodes.
An arrow running between two event circles shows the activity needed to complete that
task. A description of the task is written underneath the arrow. The length of the task is
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shown above it. By convention, all arrows run left to right. Arrows are also sometimes
called arcs.
This shows the start event (circle 1), and the completion of the 'High Level Analysis' task
(circle 2). The arrow between them shows the activity of carrying out the High Level
Analysis. This activity should take 1 week.
Where one activity cannot start until another has been completed, we start the arrow for
the dependent activity at the completion event circle of the previous activity. An example
of this is shown below:
Here the activities of 'Select Hardware' and 'Core Module Analysis' cannot be started
until 'High Level Analysis' has been completed. This diagram also brings out a number of
other important points:
• Within Critical Path Analysis, we refer to activities by the numbers in the circles
at each end. For example, the task 'Core Module Analysis' would be called
activity 2 to 3. 'Select Hardware' would be activity 2 to 9.
• Activities are not drawn to scale. In the diagram above, activities are 1 week long,
2 weeks long, and 1 day long. Arrows in this case are all the same length.
• In the example above, you can see a second number in the top, right hand
quadrant of each circle. This shows the earliest start time for the following
activity. It is conventional to start at 0. Here units are whole weeks.
Here activity 6 to 7 cannot start until the other four activities (11 to 6, 5 to 6, 4 to 6, and 8
to 6) have been completed.
Click the link below for the full circle and arrow diagram for the computer project we are
using as an example.
3.3 BENEFITS:
CPM provides the following benefits: