Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Vol. 13 No. 2
features
ETF Liquidity Explained
By Paul Daley, Phil Dorencz and Dan Bargerstock 10
A guide to discerning sufficient liquidity in ETFs.
The Impact Of Market Models On Liquidity
By Lisa Dallmer 18
The role of liquidity providers.
The Fragmentation Of The European ETF Market
By Bart Lijnse and Christiaan Scholtes 22
Lack of unified market hurts ETF volumes in Europe.
A Big Bang In European ETF Trading?
By Keshava Shastry 26
Is Europe’s ETF market reaching a tipping point?
No Shortage Of Share Lending 10
By Leonard Welter 28
Securities lending with ETFs in Europe.
Talking Indexes: Bubble Decisions
By David Blitzer 30
How do you know if the market is in a bubble?
Can Indexes Generate Alpha?
By David Blanchett 32
Indexes aren’t necessarily just beta.
The Future Of Fund Ratings, Part Three
By Gary Gastineau 38
A look at freely available investor tools.
Creating A Better Target Date Benchmark
By Grant Gardner and Mary Fjelstad 42
A methodology for comparing families rather than funds.
Fixing The Flaws With Target Date Funds
By Navaid Abidi and Dirk Quayle 46
Renovating the target date concept. 18
The ETFs Of 2010
By Dave Nadig 68
What’s in store for unsuspecting ETF investors in 2010?
news
Lead Stories . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Indexing Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Around The World Of ETFs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
Back To The Futures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Know Your Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
From The Exchanges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
On The Move . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
data
Selected Major Indexes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Returns Of Largest U.S. Index Mutual Funds . . . . 63 42
U.S. Market Overview In Style . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64
U.S. Industry Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Exchange-Traded Funds Corner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
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Lexington, Ky., and Hilliard Lyons in Louisville, Ky. Blanchett holds an M.S. in
financial services through The American College and a BBA in finance and eco-
nomics from the University of Kentucky. He is also an Accredited Investment
Fiduciary Analyst and a Chartered Financial Analyst charterholder.
Paul Daley is a senior managing director of sales and trading at Fox River
Execution. He is the product manager for Fox Spotlight, Fox River’s agency block
ETF trading platform. Daley’s primary responsibilities include ensuring best
execution of orders for all of the company’s customers, new product develop-
Paul Daley
ment initiatives and business development with new customers. He holds a B.A.
in economics and an MBA in finance from the University of Chicago.
Lisa Dallmer is executive vice president of global index services and exchange-
traded products for NYSE Euronext. Her primary responsibilities are the global
expansion of trading and listing services for exchange-traded products, and
Lisa Dallmer
Keshava Shastry is a director and the head of markets looking after trading of
iShares ETFs within BlackRock. Prior to joining iShares nearly three years ago,
he worked at Citigroup for four years as an FX and interest rate trader. Shastry
has a master’s degree in mathematics and computer science from Imperial
Keshava Shastry
equities and ETFs. Welter holds an MBA from the London Business School.
2 March/April 2010
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our time.
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The Dow Jones Sustainability IndexesSM launched in 1999—long
before “sustainability” became a buzzword among everyday investors.
Over the decade since, the indexes have steadfastly measured the
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the index member companies have been trailblazers in their own
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4 March/April 2010
See what others don’t,
so you can do what others can’t.™
The S&P 500®—one of the most widely respected
indices for the world’s most demanding market—gives
you more than just 500 highly sought-after companies
through S&P 500 extension indices. Use our S&P 500
Pure Style Indices to better analyze value and growth
cycles. And use our S&P 500 VIX Futures, S&P Equal
Weighted and S&P 500 Dividend Indices to help you
understand the market from many different angles.
Welcome to the power of S&P Indices. www.indices.standardandpoors.com
Standard & Poor’s is not an investment advisor, and all information provided by Standard & Poor’s is impersonal. Standard & Poor’s does not sponsor, endorse, sell,
or promote any S&P index-based product. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Copyright © 2010 Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC, a subsidiary of
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LLC. VIX is a registered trademark of the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
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I
ndex investing has long had a bit of an awkward relationship with trading. Good index
fund management has always been to some degree about controlling trading costs, be
they commissions, spreads or market impact costs. After all, the point of good index
Jim Wiandt fund management is to minimize friction, and trading is the primary friction between an
Editor index investor and obtaining the performance of an index.
ETFs—and now ETNs, ETCs and other ETPs—have complicated that equation even
more. ETFs are, as the acronym suggests, exchange-traded funds, bringing index funds
into tradable units. Add to that the myriad new ways to trade—through electronic trad-
ing networks, exchanges, off the floor and around the back—and you’ve got a complex
mix that any investor who wants to preserve something approaching market returns has
to figure out.
We’re excited about this issue because we’ve got some top-notch articles covering an
array of trading issues—with the balance tilted toward Europe—where we’ll be hosting
our first Inside ETFs Europe event, in Amsterdam on April 12-13. If trading is complicated
in the U.S., it’s a thicket of briars at midnight in Europe, where only a small percentage
of trading happens publicly.
Leading with the U.S. part of the trading issue are Paul Daley, Phil Dorencz and Dan
Bargerstock, with a very strong submission that looks at the rather complicated issue of
understanding how liquid an ETF really is (hint—the daily trading volume in the ETF is
not your best metric).
Next, Bart Lijnse and Christiaan Scholtes weigh in from across the pond with an out-
standing analysis of some of the complications of the fragmented European markets.
They are followed by Keshava Shastry’s column asserting that the European ETF industry
might be just about to turn the corner to find an ocean of trading liquidity. Wrapping
up the trading and liquidity portion of this issue, Leonard Welter offers a window on the
fascinating world of share lending in Europe.
Rounding out the lineup are David Blitzer with a sharply insightful piece on bubbles;
David Blanchett on alpha-generating indexes; Gary Gastineau with his final installment on
fund evaluation methods; two retirement/target date pieces—one from Grant Gardner
and Mary Fjelstad, and the other from Navaid Abidi and Dirk Quayle; and Dave Nadig with
a zany take on where the ETF industry is headed.
Like it or not, trading and indexes are forever married. You can remain in denial, or
find yourself a good counselor. This month the Journal of Indexes is board-certified to help
you work things out.
Jim Wiandt
Editor
Jim Wiandt
Editor
8 March/April 2010
Thoroughbreds perform better with blinders on.
Investors don’t.
In today’s economy, many people feel like they’re investing in the dark. So it’s time someone shed a little light on
the matter. With State Street, you can choose from a stable of over 80 SPDR ® ETFs. Which means it’s easy to precisely
match your investments to your investment strategy. Interested in Fixed Income? Gold? High-dividend stocks? Whatever
the market segment, you get exactly what’s on the label. Nothing more, nothing less. For a different breed of ETF, visit
spdrs.com. And see why wild horses couldn’t drag our customers away.
10 March/April 2010
E
xchange-traded funds have enjoyed tremendous growth really heat up. 1999 was the year that the Nasdaq-100 QQQs
over the past decade, whether you measure that by became known as the proxy for technology stocks. With the
daily trading volume, the number of annual new fund Internet stock bubble at full inflation, investors could not get
issuances or assets under management. enough of the QQQs. For ETF issuers, an entire new market
Assets under management have grown during the past was discovered: the day trader. Issuers responded to the new
decade from less than $100 billion to nearly $800 billion. demand with a then-record 57 new fund launches in 2000 (see
Trading volume has soared as well: In 2009, the value of ETFs Figure 1).
traded on U.S. exchanges surpassed $18 trillion, and ETFs The next wave of growth centered on expanding the asset
regularly accounted for 30 percent or more of all dollar volume types embedded in this unique structure. The first fixed-
traded on U.S. exchanges. Meanwhile, over the past four years, income funds were introduced in 2002, commodities followed
we have seen between 100 and 200 net new funds per year. in 2004 and currencies in 2006. By creating an entire invest-
Despite all this growth, flaws in the understanding of ment palette, once again an entire new market of ETF users
how these vehicles trade—and the best manner in which to was created: The registered investment adviser community
trade them—remain. A variety of heuristics exist for deter- soon recognized that with a full suite of products available,
mining which funds can be safely traded and which are too they could focus their pursuit of alpha at a more strategic
expensive for practical trading, but nearly all of these rules of level. Rather than picking individual securities, they could
thumb are flawed at best and dead wrong at worst. focus on sectors and asset types. The benefits of doing so
One of the most common assertions is that investors should were many, from greater tax efficiencies to less-specific risk
avoid any funds with fewer than $100 million in assets and and lower overall trading costs.
average daily trading volume of fewer than 100,000 shares. 2006 also saw the entrance of a new innovation that has
This paper will show that there is virtually no correlation driven significant increases in ETF trading volume: The first
between those two factors and the true liquidity of an ETF. leveraged and inverse ETFs opened the market to more
For purposes of this paper, Fox River Execution defines the aggressive risk takers. While not without some controversy,
true liquidity of the ETF to be the combination of the ETF’s day trading as well as medium- and long-term investment in
average daily trading volume and the average daily trading these instruments has driven big volume gains.
volume of the underlying securities. The combination of these Beyond issuance of new products, the second driver of
two factors explains the real-world experience of traders mov- growth has been volatility. Invariably in times of high uncer-
ing significant sums of money into and out of funds. tainty and stress in the market, investors seek out what they
Most of the detailed examples reviewed in this paper understand most, and risk managers gravitate toward simple
involve ETFs with U.S. equity underlying securities because ways to broadly manage risk. ETFs, with their full holdings
there are fewer variables to interfere with the precision of transparency and broad market coverage, fit the bill.
the calculations. However, as shown, this general framework As a result, it is not altogether surprising that trading vol-
can be used to both analyze and understand the trading ume in SPY is closely correlated with the CBOE Volatility Index,
patterns of ETFs based on currencies, commodities, fixed better known as the VIX. This was demonstrated most recently
income and international equities. in the credit-crisis-driven events of 2007 and 2008 (see Figure
2). Every spike in the VIX Index is almost immediately fol-
Brief History Of ETF Growth lowed by a spike in SPY trading volume. It is also interesting
The story of the growth of the ETF market has been one of that while overall market volume spikes, the spread between
innovation meeting opportunity repeatedly, but not neces- SPY volume growth and overall market growth continues to
sarily immediately. It often takes a high-stress period in the expand throughout the period. This suggests that those who
market for investors to realize that there are new ways to use find uses for ETFs in times of stress do not abandon them
the tools at hand. when the stress is relieved.
On Jan. 29, 1993, State Street Global Advisors brought to Another significant contributor to ETF volume growth that
market the first ETF—the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE Arca: SPY)— Figure 1
to almost no fanfare. On its second anniversary, SPY was
trading 50 percent less volume than it did in its first month ETF Market Growth
of existence, and even that was not that impressive. It was
Net New ETFs
not until late 1995 that it began its uninterrupted march to 250
trading volume leadership.
200
One theory as to why volume was so light is that the
applications State Street envisioned for the product did not 150
resonate with investors or traders. Their sales pitch included
100
asking S&P 500 Index fund managers to replace their 500
stocks with a single security. That was not an appealing pros- 50
pect to managers, as it represented an effective outsourcing
0
of their fund management responsibilities (with a resulting ‘93 ‘94 ‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09
second level of fees charged to the end investor).
It was not until 1999 that the market for ETFs began to Source: IndexUniverse.com
VIX Index
6
50
5 Bear Stearns
Suspends Credit HF 40
4
Redemption 30
3
2 20
1 10
0 0
April Oct April Oct April Oct April Oct
2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009
■ SPY Volume ■ US Equity Volume ■ VIX
12 March/April 2010
position and lock in a guaranteed profit. The process works Figure 3
in reverse for redemptions.
Of course, there are costs to executing these trades iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) Mispricing: By Percent Of Day
(bid/ask spreads, commissions, taxes, clearing fees, market
35%
impact, etc.) that create a band around the NAV within which
30%
arbitrage is not profitable. But outside of these bands there
is free money to be made, and it is made all day, every day by 25%
Fund (NYSE Arca: IWM) is the third-most-actively traded ETF Source: Fox River Execution
in the U.S. based on dollar volume, behind only SPY and
QQQQ. Due in part to the difficulty of trading some of the dition exists, the ETF often fluctuates between prices that
small-cap stocks within it, however, it can be a problematic are bound by the arbitrage bands: APs are unable to directly
fund for APs to hedge. As a result, in spite of its enormous arbitrage the ETF within this band, since the cost of assem-
trading volume in December 2009, IWM was mispriced by bling the underlying basket of securities is higher than the
at least 5 cents per share for an average of 22.6 percent of bid/ask spread of the ETF itself. Understanding when and
each trading day—or almost one and a half hours of each where this can happen is important for those trading ETFs,
six-and-a-half-hour trading session (see Figure 3). because when there is asymmetry in the arbitrage market
Investors can gain a first-level approximation of whether an for a given ETF, large buy orders will have a different level
ETF is trading at a premium or discount to NAV by comparing of impact on the ETF market than large sell orders.
the ETF’s share price with the indicative NAV (iNAV) as published For example, in December 2009, IWM had an average
by a number of data providers. There are some weaknesses to bid/ask spread of $0.010 per share. During the same period,
this approach though. For one, iNAVs are only updated every 15 the underlying basket of securities in IWM had a combined
seconds and are based on last price rather than bids and offers average bid/ask spread of $0.122 per share. This twelvefold
in the underlying securities. As bid/ask spreads on the underly- difference creates a vast amount of space for IWM to trade
ing securities become wider, and critically—if those underlying within before arbitrage becomes profitable.
securities are not trading on a regular basis —iNAV values can Figure 4 is a 10-minute snapshot of the IWM bid/ask spread
move away from a more real-time view of the fair value of an and the bid/ask spread of its NAV on December 2009.
ETF. This is particularly a problem as one moves down the Investors should be able to drive most trades in ETFs
market-cap spectrum. Specialists, APs and dedicated ETF liquid- within the channel suggested by the NAV bid/ask spread.
ity providers will perform calculations based on the real-time But within that channel, large buy and sell orders can
bid/ask spreads of the underlying components, to create a more and will drive the price of the ETF toward the top or the
real-time approximation of the true value of the ETF. bottom of the channel.
Asymmetry And Arbitrage Channels In ETF Trading Impact In The Underlying Vs. Impact In The ETF
Asymmetry in the arbitrage process typically occurs when Pre-Trade Model Examples
the bid-offer spread for the underlying constituents is wider When determining how difficult a stock is to trade, most
than the bid offer spread for the ETF itself. When this con- traders rely on pre-trade impact cost estimate models pro-
14 March/April 2010
techniques and some robust tools for analysis, our research hedge for the least liquid instruments.
and market experience suggests that solid price and size dis- In all of the cases listed above, there is a basis risk
covery in less-trafficked-in ETFs is very achievable. involved in the hedge. Basis risk is when the hedge does
not perform exactly the way the instrument being hedged
Optimized Baskets performs. This leads to wider bid/offer spreads, but does not
Managers of small-capitalization index funds learned necessarily decrease the depth of the market or mean that
long ago that it is not always necessary to own every stock large trades cannot be moved through. Often the correlated
in the index to produce performance with little tracking instruments are more liquid than the underlying of the ETF
error to the index. A variety of optimization techniques are they are hedging, which can lead to situations where arbitra-
employed. While the objective function has factors designed geurs are willing to make bigger (albeit wider) markets in the
to replicate the characteristics of the broad universe, it ETF than in the instrument the ETF tracks.
almost always also contains a trade-cost-minimizing objec-
tive that is designed to create a replicating basket with the Event Risk Hedges
lowest cost of implementation and maintenance. Many of the correlated hedges described above can
Arbitrageurs employ the exact same techniques when also be put in the category of event risk hedges. This is
operating in the ETF market, which creates an interesting particularly the case with using ADRs or domestic equi-
opportunity for traders. These optimized baskets are always ties to hedge international equity ETFs. As investors have
subsets of the entire index. Because one of the optimization expanded their investment horizons to include internation-
factors is trade cost (often represented by the width of the al investing (whether that is non-U.S. investors investing in
bid/offer spread), it is likely that the bid/offer spread of the the U.S. or vice versa), correlations among markets around
optimized basket is narrower than the bid/offer spread of the the world have grown. Most large-cap companies already
entire universe. It is also likely that there will be some asym- have significant businesses overseas, further boosting cor-
metry in the spreads of the respective basket. The more opti- relations. For these reasons, domestic events and news
mized baskets there are and the more asymmetry there is in have an impact on foreign markets just as news abroad has
the baskets, the better it is for the market as a whole. This is an impact here. In the absence of pre-market news that will
because the best bid and the best offer are unlikely to come affect the open of trading in the U.S., we often take our lead
from the same optimized basket, making the overall market from the markets in Asia and Europe. If they trade higher,
tighter than if all participants were using the same basket to we tend to do likewise. When news in the U.S. creates a
hedge. This is at least part of the reason (though not all) that big impact on our markets, trading in Asia and Europe is
IWM trades with a 1 cent bid/offer spread, while the underly- similarly affected the next day.
ing basket trades with a 12 cent bid/offer spread. Because of higher correlations across markets, the big risk
when trading after markets close is news risk or event risk,
Correlated Instruments since it can affect all markets. This actually makes it easier
One special challenge for arbitrageurs is how to hedge to make markets in ETFs with foreign underlying long after
ETF positions when the underlying securities held by the their markets are closed. Arbitrageurs may not be able to lay
fund are not trading. This is not an issue for most domestic off their specific risk until some time the next day, but they
equity or fixed-income funds, but for international equity can lay off their event risk immediately by using an ETF or
or fixed-income securities, and certain commodity markets, related security that is already trading in the U.S. market.
the underlying securities may not trade during the U.S. That way, if there is a significant event related to geopolitics,
market day. For instance, the Asian equity and debt markets
are closed during all of the U.S. trading day, and European Figure 6
markets only overlap U.S. market hours in the morning.
In these situations, arbitrageurs use correlated instru- ETF Trading: The Value Of Knowledge
How do you know where to set the limit? Different techniques. Different results.
ments to hedge their ETF trades. Correlated instruments
can include futures, options, physical commodities, curren- iShares Russell 2000 (Growth)
cies and a vast array of fixed-income securities. [Correlated
instruments can and are used to hedge domestic ETFs as Begin Sweep
56.92
well, in situations where the correlated instruments are more Begin Sweep
liquid or efficient than the underlying in the ETF itself.] 56.87 Post
Filled 72,600
For international markets, for instance, American deposi-
tary receipts (ADRs) or even domestic instruments may be 56.82
used to hedge. For commodities, futures or physical assets
can be used as a hedge. It is more likely that futures will 56.77
Filled 43,800
be used because of their easy access, exchange listing and
56.72
favorable margin requirements. Physical commodities pres- 12:35:00 PM 12:37:09 PM 12:39:05 PM 12:41:04 PM 12:42:50 PM 12:44:30 PM
ent problems with financing, transportation and storage that NAV Ask ■ IWO Ask ■ IWO Bid NAV Bid
are typically, but not always, avoided. For fixed-income ETFs,
sometimes the most liquid ETFs are used as a correlated Sources: Fox River Execution, Bloomberg
Figure 7
290,000 300,000
53.45
250,000
53.40
Volume
200,000
Price
53.35
150,000
53.30
100,000
53.25 50,000
53.20 0
2:45:03 PM
2:46:03 PM
2:47:03 PM
2:48:03 PM
2:49:03 PM
2:50:03 PM
2:51:03 PM
2:52:03 PM
2:53:03 PM
2:54:03 PM
2:55:03 PM
2:56:03 PM
2:57:03 PM
2:58:03 PM
2:58:18 PM
2:59:03 PM
16 March/April 2010
The total impact on the market for this trade was 5 cents of information any trader or investor should have before
(average impact being less), with only a penny or two of attempting to use ETFs in appreciable size. It has been the
reversion after the trade. goal of this article to supply that level of understanding.
The second trade is for 43,800 and is executed over a Beyond an understanding of the structure and market
span of seconds less than 10 minutes after the first trade. structure of ETFs, it can be very handy to have a quantita-
The trade began with a sweep at $56.87 and that sweep tive, real-time assessment of the factors impacting pricing
continued until 43,800 shares were sold; the trade is com- while trading. It is this piece that can be harder to come by.
pleted at $56.75. A post was never attempted for this trade. Most APs are happy to tell you where they would trade an
While Fox River Execution was not party to the specifics ETF, but it is only a few brokers who can first tell you where
of this trade, one can imagine that the trader or algorithm they should trade an ETF. Knowing the “should” before find-
executing it did not take into account the arbitrage value ing out the “would” can lead to much more pleasant out-
of the NAV when deciding fair pricing for the ETF. The total comes as well as minimizing instances of buyer’s remorse.
impact on the market for this trade was 12 cents, with an A final real-world example can drive this home. Figure 7
almost immediate reversion of 7 cents, suggesting 5 cents shows how an enormous trade can be pushed through an
would have been a fair price impact. ETF with minimal price impact.
The difference in impact between these trades of approx- The chart shows the minute-by-minute trading volume in
imately 7 cents is the real cost of failing to understand how the iShares Russell 3000 Index Fund (NYSE Arca: IWV). The
ETFs trade based on the arbitrage relationship between the fund trades throughout the day, but the size of the trades
ETF and its NAV. That does not adjust for the fact that it was are small. Then, a trade for 290,000 shares was executed 90
the larger trade that experienced the smaller impact. seconds before the market close. This volume was equal to
48 percent of all the shares that had traded in the first 6.5
How To Use Information hours of the day. Yet the impact of the trade was only 2.18
For More Effective Trading cents from the midpoint of the bid/offer spread at the time
Since the first markets were formed, it has always been the market was entered.
the more informed trader that has an advantage over the IWV is a relatively liquid ETF to begin with, but the same
trader with less information. So it is with ETFs. rules apply to less liquid products as well. If you know
An understanding of the structure of ETF arbitrage and how where to trade, and why, enormous positions can be moved
it translates into prices in the market is the minimum amount through the market with relatively little impact.
Index Publications LLC, 545 N. McDonough St., Ste. 214, Decatur, GA 30030 • Advertising and Reprints Inquiries: 646.321.1785
By Lisa Dallmer
18 March/April 2010
E
xchange-traded funds have revolutionized investing and “Paying for Market Quality,” by Anand, Tanggaard and
markets in ways we never could have imagined. ETFs Weaver published in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative
fill the investing pages of the Wall Street Journal and Analysis (JFQA) in April 2008 reports on the benefits of liquid-
stream across the ticker line on CNBC all day long. With all of ity providers (referred to as “LPs” in our European markets,
the attention ETFs have received, however, few investors truly which are akin to our U.S. LMMs): “… price discovery during
understand the complexity of what goes on behind the scenes the continuous trading period of the trading day increases
with ETF trading and market making. There is a diverse array significantly following the start of LP services.” Another white
of players in the market that is truly the key for making ETFs paper, titled “The Value of the Designated Market Makers,”
the efficient windows into market liquidity that they are. by Venkataraman and Waisburd published in the JFQA in
To understand how the market for ETFs works, let’s take September 2007, indicates that: “A dealer enhances market
a step back and talk about how an ETF works. ETFs are effec- quality by simply maintaining a regular market presence.”
tively mutual funds that trade like stocks. But unlike stocks, The research goes on to say that a market maker “reduces
where price discovery is a function of supply and demand price risk that equilibrium values may shift between order
throughout the day (i.e., scarcity of shares and opinions), an submission and execution.”
ETF is a collection of securities whose underlying valuation
can be calculated as a result of the portfolio’s transparency. The Lead Market Maker’s Role
This transparency, coupled with the ETF’s creation redemp- Overall, the LMM’s core function is to provide publicly
tion process, creates a constant loop of pricing information displayed limit orders, resulting in the formation of price
that is used to create an arbitrage opportunity should the discovery. LMMs trade using their own proprietary software
fund’s price get out of line with its expected underlying to connect to the exchange and establish two-sided markets
net asset value (NAV). As the supply and demand for an ETF for the products they’ve been allocated. To establish competi-
goes up and down, authorized participants exchange the tive quotes, LMMs use real-time data, firm capital and their
basket of underlying securities for the shares of the ETF to knowledge of ETF markets as well as the transparent-known
increase or decrease the ETF shares available in the market- basket of securities underlying each ETF. These quotes result
place. Thus, generally the price discovery of the ETF is not in trades that are consistent with arbitrage principles and
affected by long-term supply and demand, because the size in line with the underlying value of the ETF’s portfolio. For
of a fund’s assets under management can grow and shrink example, the offer on a particular ETF is largely defined as the
according to demand. collective price at which the LMM could assemble the basket
and access a creation unit in order to sell the ETF into the sec-
Sources Of Liquidity ondary marketplace. If trading international products, LMMs
There are a variety of exchanges and trading venues that also must have access to non-U.S. markets to get international
can be generally characterized as 1) the listed exchange uti- data feeds, foreign stock holdings and foreign clearing costs,
lizing either the lead market maker (LMM) arranged by the and need to develop relationships with brokers who can man-
exchange (U.S. approach) or arranged by the issuer (common age off-hours market risk. LMMs have an obligation to make
European approach); 2) multilateral trading facilities (MTFs) the bid and ask as relevant as possible to a fund’s underlying
with unlisted trading activity; and 3) alternative liquidity value, net of the cost of assembling the basket to quote, ulti-
aggregation venues, often called “dark pools,” that do not mately reducing costs for individual investors who would find
expose an order to a public quote. Liquidity providers and it expensive to assemble such baskets. To do so, they need
liquidity takers meet on these trading venues in a process technology, knowledge of the underlying markets and access
known as price discovery. The basic idea is that through to those underlying markets.
price discovery, liquidity providers are fundamental to ensur- In addition to maintaining continuous two-sided quotes,
ing that ETFs trade at values close to their expected NAVs, LMMs must meet minimum performance requirements that
throughout the trading day. But regardless of who is provid- include, for each ETF, a percentage of the time that the LMM
ing the liquidity, understanding the finer points of exactly quotes are at the national best bid and offer (NBBO), an aver-
how that liquidity provision is introduced to the exchange is age displayed size and an average quoted spread. An exchange
key to understanding how this market functions. should set the appropriate performance requirements for
At the heart of the exchange model, these players are known each individual security (based on its price and other trading
as lead market makers. LMMs are akin to designated market characteristics). LMMs fulfill these quote and execution obliga-
markers (formerly known as specialists) in the floor-based tions by electronically interacting with the market in displayed
trading system. Operating in a fully electronic market model, order types and through their willingness to algorithmically
LMMs support displayed limit order trading because they are provide price improvement to incoming orders without seeing
obligated to quote narrow, two-sided markets throughout the the actual orders in advance. The incentive to act as an LMM is
trading day. LMMs are responsible for maintaining share depth, driven by the scalability of trading systems to ETFs and lower
tight quoted spreads, and using publicly displayed limit orders transaction pricing that is reserved for the LMM.
to generate the opportunity for price improvement. The LMMs
enhance market quality and supplement natural liquidity from Opening And Closing Auctions
the collective broker-dealer community. The LMM is also involved in two of the most critical
Academic research supports this point. An article titled single moments of the trading day: the open and the close.
Quoting Quality For NYSE Arca Listed Domestic ETFs: First Half 2009
1st 641,625-
208,989,995 0.05% 0.05% 21,252 20,543 87.80% 89.18% 26.60% 33.40%
2nd 110,208-
625,584 0.13% 0.18% 1,891 1,984 80.97% 68.41% 28.60% 21.60%
3rd 28,624-
109,562 0.25% 0.50% 2,428 2,101 74.80% 50.92% 35.00% 16.30%
4th 9,671-
27,572 0.58% 0.90% 1,889 1,455 74.54% 49.80% 37.60% 13.30%
5th 400-9,602
ADV 0.42% 1.06% 1,989 1,438 79.11% 51.23% 45.30% 12.80%
Source: Arcavision.com
Figure 2
Quoting Quality Statistics For NYSE Arca-Listed International And Non-U.S. Treasury/Agency Fixed-Income ETFs: First Half 2009
1st 211,350-
75,975,042 0.06% 0.08% 12,087 10,781 91.34% 88.44% 34.60% 22.40%
2nd 72,122-
209,190 0.38% 2.16% 2,256 1,519 78.48% 38.22% 44.00% 6.90%
3rd 18,697-
72,050 0.62% 3.77% 2,164 972 81.50% 21.29% 47.50% 4.80%
4th 5,982-
18,423 0.76% 4.95% 2,215 694 86.56% 19.93% 54.40% 5.30%
5th 2-5,825 1.13% 7.05% 1,999 655 89.52% 16.51% 65.70% 4.90%
Source: Arcavision.com
To open and close the trading day as a means of creating Any participating trading firm can offset the imbalance, but
the primary market print, exchanges use an auction. In the the LMM must be there to partially offset the indicative imbal-
U.S. and Europe, a commonly used method is a single-price ance. All trading firms, including LMMs, have access to the
Dutch auction, which matches buy and sell orders at a price indicative match price and are able to analyze the valuation of
to maximize the amount of tradable stock. Using the NYSE that underlying portfolio to assess any arbitrage opportunities.
Arca exchange as an example, a requirement of the LMM is The LMM will use the same arbitrage pricing mechanics during
to support these market opening and closing auctions. So at the core trading session and at the auctions to effectively set
these 9:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. single-price auctions, the LMM displayed prices. Both the opening and closing auction are the
must be present in the formation of the price discovery, and official opening and closing prices of the primary market.
to help offset any buy or sell imbalances. These types of transparent auctions have been successful
As a part of the auction process, the indicative match price, at focusing liquidity for a given point in time. Most exchanges
indicative match volume and the auction imbalance are con- retain a high percentage of market share during their open
tinually calculated and disseminated. This facilitates real-time and closing auctions in part because institutional and retail
price discovery and supports market transparency. Indications traders often want the primary listed exchange print for the
are calculated and broadcast through the Internet and via first and last trade of the day. Slippage—the percentage
market-data feeds to subscribers leading up to the auction. difference of that closing auction price against the volume-
This process allows any market participant—institutional, weighted average price (VWAP) of the last two minutes of
sell-side or retail, as well as the LMMs—to not only gauge the the core trading session—with such auctions is minimal, at
price, and the size at which to place orders so that they will approximately 20 basis points; illustrating that the market
get executed, but how to help offset any imbalances. prices as the day draws to a close are well represented by the
20 March/April 2010
Figure 3
Jun-09 8.69 5.22 4.18 356,153 412,818 599,313 4,930,739 35,681,134 972,285,808
Jul-09 10.02 5.62 4.46 170,342 207,000 613,889 1,905,503 13,101,820 937,853,935
Aug-09 9.17 5.02 3.53 110,389 155,633 372,015 3,030,697 32,192,172 662,337,670
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 4
Jun-09 10.79 5.64 5.38 345,147 423,234 506,534 10,568,733 67,609,939 726,355,233
Jul-09 13.92 6.22 5.69 201,812 217,028 315,127 11,863,689 29,844,952 727,930,507
Aug-09 12.58 5.15 5.13 225,206 225,860 402,887 21,045,685 48,840,082 543,124,322
Source: Bloomberg
auction price and the LMM’s participation.1 on indexes holding only listed U.S. equities securities and
In return for fulfilling such obligations, for each order places them into quintiles that are sorted by first-half 2009
that adds liquidity to the book, the LMM is paid a “liquid- consolidated average daily volume (CADV). The top quintiles
ity execution” rebate that is an incremental rebate to what have tighter median spreads across the board, and although
basic broker-dealer order firms could obtain. Only when a the spreads for the bottom quintiles widen, they are much
firm removes liquidity from the book is it charged a transac- tighter at the LMM-driven NYSE Arca than observed for the
tion fee, and for the LMMs, this transaction fee is lower as same symbols traded on Nasdaq, where an LMM is not pres-
a result of the quoting obligations and price discovery they ent. Even if the product has little secondary trading volume,
perform in the marketplace. For the LMMs on NYSE Arca, the NYSE Arca LMM is required to make a continuous two-
there is no advance knowledge of incoming orders to the sided quote and maintain a specified spread requirement.
central limit order book. Secondary trading volume is an indicator of the traction and
general demand for trading the ETF, which is in part influ-
What Liquidity Really Means In ETFs enced by the issuer’s brand and overall appeal for the invest-
The popular press has often misstated the relationship ment theory set out in the ETF. As products grow in second-
between ETFs with low trading volumes (volume being an ary trading volume, the pool of general liquidity providers
indicator of activity), and those ETFs with wide quoted expands, and the quoted spreads may tighten to levels that
spreads (where spread is an indicator of ease of pricing and are narrower than the cost of assembling the basket of the
desire to trade). The key driver of an ETF’s spread is both underlying securities. This observation regarding the knock-
the liquidity of the ETF at the NBBO at the time of trading, on effects of higher trading volume is also consistent with
and the liquidity and volatility of the underlying portfolio, the depth statistics displayed in Figure 1. Figure 2 groups
since the ETF shares themselves can be created and offered all international equity ETFs and non-U.S. Treasury/agency
for sale in the secondary market. For example, an ETF may fixed-income ETFs in quintiles by volume.
have a low level of secondary volume (an activity indicator) Overall, liquidity begets liquidity in the interconnected sys-
but reasonably tight quoted spreads as a result of the ease tems of trading, but it’s useful to observe the tangible results of
of pricing the basket. On the contrary, the LMM’s cost of obligated LMM participation, particularly in thinly traded ETFs.
quoting is higher for ETFs that hold international equities as
compared with domestic equities. An ETF with a higher cost ETFs In Europe
of quoting results in a wider quoted spread. The major European exchanges also trade on fully elec-
To highlight this example, Figure 1 looks at ETFs based continued on page 53
Endnotes
1 ETF Landscape Industry Preview Year End 2009, BlackRock Global ETF Research & Implementation Strategy Team
2 Source: Data Explorers
3 Ibid.
Endnote
1. Source: NYSE Euronext research databases
22 March/April 2010
T
he worldwide exchange-traded fund market has Examples Of Fragmentation
gained significant momentum since the launch of The fragmentation in Europe is caused by two factors:
the first ETF in the United States, in 1993. The first 1) Competition between issuers; and 2) inefficiencies in the
ETF in Europe, the iShares DJ Euro Stoxx 50 (EUN2), was structure of the European financial markets. Combined,
launched only seven years later, in April 2000. Since then, these have fractured the ETF market with significant
the European exchange-traded product market has grown impacts on end investors.
rapidly to include 1,1031 ETFs and exchange-traded com- For example, consider the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50
modities, with over 3,000 separate listings, at the end of Index (“SX5E”). Widely popular, SX5E is tracked by the
2009. European ETP assets under management rose to most liquid European index futures contract (listed on
$223 billion2 by the same date (see Figure 1). Eurex), as well as some of the largest and most liquid ETFs
In terms of average daily trading volume, Europe lags in Europe.
behind the U.S. considerably. European average daily But as of December 2009, there were 78 different
turnover was $2.3 billion in 2009, compared with $45.8 listings for ETFs tracking the SX5E (see Figure 3). This
billion in the U.S. (see Figure 2). excludes numerous structured delta-1 notes listed on plat-
forms like Scoach.
Figure 1
Fragmentation Caused By
European ETF And ETC AUM Growth Competition Between Issuers
250 1,000 Unlike the U.S., the European market is not one single
Number of Listed ETFs market (although some politicians are working very hard
200 800
to make it that way). Banks still have some weak form of
AUM (U.S. $Billions)
150 600 monopoly in their home markets and are used to charging
high fees to their clients. Given this background, the key
100 400 issue for ETF asset growth in Europe is still distribution.
ETFs compete against a variety of products, including mutu-
50 200
al funds and structured products from those same banks,
0 0 and therefore the accessibility of ETFs and their visibility to
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
potential clients is very important.
ETF commodity assets Fixed income ETF equity assets
Any ETF issuer will have to reach potential investors in
Number of ETFs Number of ETPs
order to gain AUM. Any U.S. ETF provider seeking brand
Sources: Bloomberg; BlackRock ETF Landscape, Year End 2009 awareness can advertise on a national level; for instance,
during the Super Bowl or another high-profile event, or
Figure 2
alternatively, advertise in a national business newspaper like
U.S. Vs. European ETF Average Daily Trading Volumes
the Wall Street Journal. By contrast, European ETF provid-
ers need to advertise in a variety of magazines, papers, TV
120 channels, Web sites and so on, throughout multiple different
Trading Volume (U.S. $Billions)
BBVA 1 – – – 1
CASAM 1 1 1 – 3
Comstage 2 2 2 – 6
dbx-trackers 9 5 – – 14
Easy ETF 5 – – 2 7
ETFS – – 4 4 8
ETFlab 1 – – – 1
HSBC 1 – – – 1
iShares 10 – – – 10
Lyxor 8 2 6 3 19
Source 2 – – – 2
UBS 6 – – – 6
Total 78
Figure 4
Average Daily Exchange Turnover (20 Days), Selected Exchanges And Issuers (U.S. $Millions)
Issuers Exchange
not profit from economies of scale in the long run, and will use an intensive one-on-one sales approach and marketing
either retreat from the ETF business, or merge with their campaign to drive interest.
larger international competitors. As ETF providers typically experience the distribution
In response to this, some banks have decided to share issues detailed above, assets and trading volume tend to be
the costs and their distribution networks, and have teamed concentrated in the country of origin of the ETF provider.
up in ETF consortia. There are currently two such consortia Figure 4 illustrates this.
in Europe: This fragmentation of trading volume impacts the quality
of the order book. Figure 5 contains an example of a reason-
• Source (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, ably liquid ETF, the db x-trackers DJ Euro Stoxx 50. As can be
Nomura) seen, the order book is filled with bids and offers, and the
• ETF Exchange (ETF Securities, RaboBank, CitiGroup, Merrill spread is about 7 basis points (2 euro cents vs. a midprice of
Lynch) 29.07, using the best available bid and offer).
ETFs with large trading volume attract market makers and
It is very difficult for ETF providers without a strong distri- high-frequency trading firms, creating a full order book. In
bution network to autonomously grow assets under manage- contrast to the listing on Xetra, the absence of a customer
ment. The one exception in Europe would be ETF Securities base in the U.K. makes for an empty market and a wider
(ETFS), which was founded by ETC pioneer Graham Tuckwell, spread of approximately 20 basis points in the LSE listing.
and which recently reached $16 billion in AUM. ETFS has
reached this level by focusing only on ETCs and without any Issues Caused By Fragmentation
distribution power at the first launch. ETFS’ strategy was to Again, unlike the U.S., the European clearing and settle-
list their ETCs on multiple exchanges in Europe, and then ment system is not a homogenous entity. Every exchange
24 March/April 2010
Figure 5
Order Book For db X-trackers DJ Euro Stoxx 50 ETF: Xetra Vs. LSE Listing
Total Bid Total Size Bid Ask Size Order Total Ask
50,000 1 50,000 29.06 29.08 30,000 1 30,000
80,000 1 30,000 29.05 29.09 70,000 3 100,000
100,000 1 20,000 29.04 29.10 2,000 1 102,000
102,000 1 2,000 29.03 29.11 2,000 1 104,000
132,000 1 30,000 29.02 29.12 2,000 1 106,000
162,000 1 30,000 29.00 29.13 3,000 3 109,000
163,000 1 1,000 28.95 29.17 60,000 2 169,000
173,000 1 10,000 28.89 29.30 10,000 1 179,000
173,100 1 100 28.60 29.58 6,528 1 185,528
176,701 1 3,601 28.58 29.61 3,645 1 189,173
Source: Bloomberg
has its own central counterparty (CCP) and central securi- listing, including the listings that do not trade (they also
ties depository (CSD), and therefore every listing settles have to maintain inventory to prevent buy-ins). For some
in a different place. In order to balance positions between ETFs, this can lead to maintaining inventory and bid/offer
settlement venues, ETFs need to be transferred from one prices for more than nine listings.
location to another, which costs money and can take sev- In the end, all individual quotes are typically smaller in
eral days. This is only the start of a whole range of issues size than they would have been if there were one single list-
arising from different settlement locations, including: ing. In contrast to other issuers, Source has chosen to list its
ETFs on only one exchange, thereby preventing these effects.
• Different settlement cycles (T+2, T+3) Its goal is to concentrate all liquidity in its products in one
• Prime brokers and clearinghouses might use an omnibus single place. Moreover, unlike Reg NMS, the European MiFID
account at the CSD. Consequently, ETFs can effectively be regulation does not enforce true best execution. Brokers can
loaned out by the clearinghouse to another trading firm, choose to route all flow to one exchange, completely ignor-
without prior knowledge and/or approval from the owner ing better prices on other exchanges.
of the position. Once loaned, the ETFs cannot be trans-
ferred. (It is very difficult to transfer shares that are not Impact On Liquidity
actually in your account.) In the end, all client orders are spread over many differ-
• The LSE has a 30-day settlement period, which basically ent listings, therefore effectively reducing the liquidity of
means that settlements can take up to 30 days. This lee- the investment product. End-investors almost always have
way is frequently misused by hedge funds and trading to cross the bid/offer spread, and working an order against
firms. Again, it is very difficult to transfer an ETF that is other investor flow is very difficult. Another consequence is
not “settled long.” that a significant proportion of the trading volume in ETFs in
• Monte Titoli (Borsa Italiana) does not net-off trades, so a Europe is traded over the counter (OTC); some even estimate
short sale followed by a cover buy will not be netted off. that OTC trading represents more than 50 percent of the total
You first need to buy somewhere else and then transfer to trading volume. A precise number is hard to determine, as no
Italy for this trade to settle. obligation exists under the MiFID regulation to report OTC
• Some CSDs do not connect to each other, so ETFs must be trades. Brokers who trade off-screen use the appearance of
transferred using a third country, which takes extra time low screen-based liquidity to promote themselves as alterna-
and costs extra money. tive liquidity pools. Although an order might easily have been
executed on-screen, a larger order is usually done OTC. This
European exchanges have a policy of forcing a buy-in is the case for most orders above €10 million, and sometimes
when ETF trades don’t settle, imposing penalties of up to even much smaller orders are traded OTC.
100 percent of the notional value of the trade. This practice
further reduces liquidity, as market makers and other liquid- Solutions
ity providers are limited in their short-selling capabilities. What can be done to make European ETFs more liquid?
Liquidity providers are obligated to put quotes in for every continued on page 55
Endnotes
1 The early status of the Investment Company Institute XBRL Initiative is summarized in McMillan, Karrie, “Remarks at XBRL International Conference,” Vancouver, British Columbia,
Dec. 4, 2007. The timing of further XBRL implementation is difficult to forecast but the ICI seems to be the fund industry’s organization of choice for this effort. You can see where
the SEC stands on XBRL by starting at http://www.sec.gov/spotlight/xbrl.shtml. There is even a rudimentary mutual fund viewer that lets you create a simple fund comparison report
for two or three funds. A visit will impress you with both the potential for improved fund data and with how far the process has to go.
2 See Cox, Christopher, “Disclosure from the User’s Perspective,” CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, September 2008, pp. 10-15.
3 In fairness to iShares, the cost of licensing a wide range of indexes just for this application would probably be prohibitive.
4 Chua, David B., Mark Kritzman and Sébastien Page, “The Myth of Diversification,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 2009, vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 26-35 provides a useful look
at the asymmetry of diversification.
5 Cremers, Martijn and Antti Petajisto, “How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure that Predicts Performance,” Review of Financial Studies, September 2009, vol. 22,
No. 9, pp. 3329-3365.
6 In calculating active share, it is often useful to make the calculation relative to a number of benchmark indexes. While the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 are highly correlated, a closet
indexer using the Russell 1000 as a fund template might have a greater active share measured against the S&P 500 than measured against the (more relevant for this fund) Russell 1000.
Cremers and Petajisto measured active share against a variety of major indexes and assumed the benchmark was the index that showed the lowest active share, (p. 3340).
7 Cremers and Petajisto, p. 3332.
8 Ibid, pp. 3354-3355.
9 Ibid, pp. 3350-3353.
10 Wright, Christopher, “Cleaning Closets,” CFA Magazine, September/October 2008, vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 20-21.
11 Gastineau, Gary L., Andrew R. Olma and Robert G. Zielinski, “Equity Portfolio Management,” Chapter 7, in Maginn, John L., Donald L. Tuttle, Jerald E. Pinto and Dennis W.
McLeavey, “Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process,” pp. 407-476. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 2007.
12 Ertugrul, Mine and Shantaram Hegde, “Corporate Governance Ratings and Firm Performance,” Financial Management, vol. 38, No. 1, Spring 2009, pp. 139-160.
13 Wellman, Jay and Jian Zhou, “Corporate Governance and Mutual Fund Performance: A First Look at the Morningstar Stewardship Grades,” Unpublished Working Paper, March
18, 2008.
14 Haslem, John A., “Mutual Funds,” Wiley, 2010, p. 312.
15 Wallison, Peter J. and Robert E. Litan, “Competitive Equity: A Better Way to Organize Mutual Funds,” The AEI Press, Washington, D.C., 2007.
Endnotes
1 Source: DB Index Research, Weekly ETF reports—Europe, January 21, 2010
References
BlackRock Advisors, ETF Landscape, Industry Preview, Year End 2009
Bloomberg
DB Index Research, Weekly ETF reports—Europe, January 21, 2010
By Keshava Shastry
T
he growth of exchange-traded funds in Europe over the the European market is fundamentally different from the U.S.
past 10 years has been remarkable. However, with ETF one, where ETFs are responsible for roughly one-third of the
assets under management worldwide recently surpass- total activity in the equity market and where 17 years after the
ing the $1 trillion milestone, a question comes to mind about inception of the first ETF, assets have surpassed $700 billion,
the ETF industry—particularly if we consider the global eco- with more than $50 billion changing hands every day.3
nomic upheaval of the past 18 months. What’s next? This last figure about ETF turnover might actually hold
What are the arguments indicating further dynamic the key to explaining where growth will come from, and
growth and, perhaps even more importantly, what conditions points clearly to where the main difference lies between
need to be met for this growth to materialize? the U.S. and European markets.4 It is the deficit of liquidity,
It may surprise some to hear a view expressed that, or to be more precise, the deficit of visible liquidity, that
despite the significant growth of the past two years or so has impacted the development of ETF markets in Europe.
in the European exchange-traded product market, the real Even in the eyes of those who have always understood the
breakthrough in Europe is only now about to happen. primary market creation/redemption mechanism for ETFs,
Clearly it would be an oversimplification to point toward this apparent deficit of liquidity has led to the misconcep-
a single driver as being capable of changing the market, yet tion that ETFs are investment vehicles accessible only to
it cannot pass unnoticed that there is a general consensus institutional clients who are able to trade over-the-counter
forming about this year being one of trading in ETFs.1 (OTC) with specialized ETF brokers.
What is fueling this popular belief? A lot can be said about the origins of this preconception.
The fact that OTC transactions have been excluded from the
A False View Of Liquidity scope of the MiFID (Markets in Financial Instruments) direc-
One does not need to be a skeptic to observe that there tive has done the market no favors, as it has pushed the bulk
is an end to all things, and it is no small wonder that there of activity in ETFs into a gray zone of unreported trading.
might be some people who think a 56.8 percent rise in assets Similarly, the multitude of exchanges and trading venues
under management in European ETFs in 2009 could be dif- alongside currency cross-listings means that the visible pool
ficult to replicate in 2010 and coming years.2 of liquidity is further fragmented and can be confusing. All in
One cannot deny that at least part of this impressive all, the final impression is that of a market with erratic activ-
growth came as a result of unique market circumstances. ity levels and high trading costs.
Investor concerns about counterparty risk, compounded This is not a fair reflection of the market. On the contrary,
by plunging financial markets, moved investor interest into when looking at market structure and trends over the last
financial products such as ETFs, while the subsequent rally of two years, it is clear that there are increasing signs indicating
late 2009 helped to achieve the strong asset growth figures the time is approaching for the big trading bang to happen.
witnessed by European ETF providers. One obvious indicator is the continuing growth of trading
Still, with 215 new ETFs launched in 2009, it is clear there volumes. Although the 0.9 percent increase in on-exchange
remains considerable room for growth in the ETF market into trading activity might not seem particularly impressive, when
2010 and beyond. Indeed, there are no reasons to assume that we include all the OTC flows that are “printed back” onto
26 March/April 2010
trade reporting facilities, a truer picture emerges. decision about their trading strategies. After all, it is not just
What is striking about this jump of more than 100 per- reality but perception that needs to change if 2010 is really
cent year-on-year is what it suggests about the real size of to be remembered as the year of trading in European ETFs.
the OTC market in Europe. Given that trade reporting of In this battle of perceptions, progress is being made.
ETFs in Europe is mostly voluntary, it is primarily limited First of all, ETFs are an established phenomenon in the
to the entities that have automated infrastructure in place European market, and the efforts made by issuers into
to report their MiFID-compliant cash market activity.5 As the education of investors is paying off with the actual
such, specialized ETF trading houses, which are respon- usage and trading of ETFs increasing.7 Equally important,
sible for the bulk of trading volumes, remain largely in the increased competition between exchanges has forced them
shadows, with the broker-to-broker market almost entirely to simplify their requirements and lower trading costs,
veiled from external observers. Still, the fact that the trade- making it easier to compare actual execution costs. Finally,
reported segment of the market more than doubled in size the arrival of multilateral trading facilities (MTFs) and their
last year shows both the potential for greater transparency appetite for a share of the ETF market translates into future
among market participants and the increased understand- opportunities for growth.
ing of the benefits that this might bring. In this context, one of the most widely discussed concepts
Whereas it is clear that liquidity generates liquidity, it is is that of a European consolidated order book—something
nevertheless important to remember that there are also other that would enable a client to access all venues where a
criteria that need to be met in order to pass the trading “big particular instrument trades through a single connection to
bang” threshold point. For market participants to treat the one platform. The trade order routing facility that has been
trading of ETFs as an extra opportunity, at least three other recently offered by some MTFs, and that now includes some
preconditions must be met: lower trading costs, a deep order ETFs, is one of several attempts to provide a remedy to the
book and ease of comparison between trading venues. problem of the fragmentation of liquidity that has historically
For the first two preconditions, it is possible to show that beset the European ETF market.
2009 was a year that marked a step in the right direction. It As with all forecasts, it is not easy to claim with certainty
should also be of no particular surprise that a drop in trad- that 2010 will indeed be a “big bang” year for trading European
ing costs usually comes as a result of deeper order books, as ETFs. There is much evidence that would seem to point toward
increased competition between market makers forces pro- such a development, and the general sentiment in the market
viders to accept limited margins and decrease their spreads. seems to reinforce it. Nevertheless, it is quite clear that things
In terms of trading costs associated with investing in are ripe for change and chances are high that once such a shift
ETFs, there is hardly an exchange in Europe where the happens, it will transform the market quite rapidly.
average spread a client needs to pay to trade a fund has Still, it is very important to realize that, even now, the
not decreased throughout 2009. Taking Euronext as an ETF market in Europe is in a state of rapid progress. The
example, the median spread of all listed ETFs was 34.36 real question is not whether it will develop, but how quickly.
bps in December 2009, down from 71.03 bps in December For the rapid growth recently witnessed to continue, there
of 2008. Over the same time period, figures for the needs to be an improvement in visible liquidity, which in turn
London Stock Exchange (LSE) show a drop from 87.58 bps should work as a magnet to attract the attention of inves-
to 52.33 bps, while for Deutsche Boerse it is 46.64 bps and tors. One crucial variable is the potential legal changes that
25.46 bps, respectively.6 might bring ETFs within the scope of the MiFID directive.
As powerful as the above-mentioned statistics are, it is Nonetheless, before this happens, it is still possible to see
worth remembering that looking at the spread figure as the the continued growth of the European market into spring
only indicator of trading performance might be misleading, and beyond. And who would mind spring, after the winter
especially when aggressive quotes are not backed by a deep we experienced this past year?
order book. To ensure easy and cost-effective execution, it continued on page 53
is almost as important to be able to rely on more than one Figure 1
market maker quoting any given product. Again, the figures European ETF Volume Reported Back
here are encouraging. Whereas in January 2009 iShares ETFs To Trade Reporting Facilities
were on average traded by just under two official exchange
Trade Reported Volume (€mil)
liquidity providers, the equivalent figure jumped to nearly
30,000
three in December 2009.
25,000
Aside from efforts by the provider, there is also a clear
increase of interest among high-frequency traders—espe- 20,000
cially those who run successful franchises in the U.S.—who 15,000
are keen to move into Europe early to benefit from a widely
10,000
anticipated surge in trading activity.
While tighter spreads and a deeper order book create a 5,000
Endnotes
1 ETF Landscape Industry Preview Year End 2009, BlackRock Global ETF Research & Implementation Strategy Team
2 Source: Data Explorers
3 Ibid.
Endnote
1. Source: NYSE Euronext research databases
By Leonard Welter
28 March/April 2010
S
ince their inception over nine years ago, the assets of easily, by borrowing the underlying constituents of the ETF
European-listed exchange-traded funds have grown to and delivering them to the creation agent in return for ETF
a record $223 billion.1 The rapid recent growth of the units, which could then be lent to the market. This cost of
European ETF market indicates that ETFs have obtained accep- creation is generally low, which means that the “borrow to
tance as an asset allocation tool by institutional as well as retail create” (or “create to lend”) ETF transaction is a viable source
investors. The securities lending market for European-listed of supply. In Europe, on the other hand, stamp taxes and divi-
ETFs also saw an increase in 2009, with loan values recovering dend costs make the “borrow to create” transaction prohibi-
from their spring lows. The lending market also saw an increase tively expensive to the short seller and lending agents.
in the breadth of trading throughout 2009, and by December Demand has historically also been an issue for the European
there were more than 300 different ETFs with securities lend- ETF securities lending market. Hedge funds and proprietary
ing activity in Europe.2 Could this be the year the securities trading desks can easily substitute a trade that involves the
lending market for European ETFs really takes off? shorting of an ETF by entering into a swap contract. A swap can
be structured to give the same performance of a short ETF posi-
What Is Securities Lending tion and has been seen to be a less expensive and more stable
And Why Is It Important To ETFs? alternative to borrowing ETFs. The recall risk when borrowing
Securities lending is a global market with more than $1 tril- ETFs can be significant, as the general lack of supply mean’s
lion worth of equity assets out on loan.3 The main purpose of that a hedge or directional short could be forced to close due
the market is to facilitate the practice of short selling—a short to the lender requiring the return of borrowed shares.
seller is required to borrow the security in order to make
onward delivery to the market. The lender of the security Has The Market Changed?
negotiates the price to borrow, with this price generally being The overall dollar value of loans made in European ETFs is
quoted as an annual percentage of the value of the loan, while still below the peak that was hit in February 2008, but as shown
retaining the right to recall the loaned security at any time. in Figure 1, demand has recovered from the March 2009 lows. A
The loans are collateralized with either cash or securities and more significant signal of change in demand is the fact that the
are governed by standard agreements. overall number of ETFs with lending activity has more than dou-
The securities lending market is relatively complex and bled from 113 in March 2009 to 305 in December (Figure 2).
the majority of transactions take place over the counter
(OTC). The supply of securities that are made available to Figure 1
the lending market comes from beneficial owners, such as
pension funds, who make their shares available to lend via European ETFs Value On Loan
agents such as custodian banks. The demand to borrow is $2.5
fueled by hedge funds and proprietary trading desks that use
either internal trading desks or prime brokers to source and $2.0
manage their borrowing requirements.
In the United States, the lending and borrowing of ETFs has $1.5
USD Billions
been well established for many years. ETFs such as SPY and
QQQQ are very easily borrowed by short sellers who are taking $1.0
directional views on the market or are using them as a relatively
cheap and easy way to manage a hedge. It can be argued that $0.5
the activity of short sellers in the ETF market helps to provide
market liquidity and trade volume for the largest ETFs in the $0
Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
U.S. market. There is an additional benefit to the underlying ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09
holder of loaned ETFs, as the lending revenue can offset some,
or all, of the management charge of the fund, which reduces Source: Data Explorers
200
The Top 10 European ETFs Of 2009, By Loan Value
The ETFs that saw the highest 2009 average U.S. dollar
150 loan value were predominantly iShares funds. The iShares
100 FTSE 250 consistently saw the highest level of demand, fol-
lowed by the Lyxor Euro Stoxx 50 ETF.
50
In terms of lending revenue, the average lending rate for the
$0 top 10 ETFs in most cases exceeded the ETF management fee.
Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 In fact, the lending rate was also in excess of the rates charged
Source: Data Explorers Figure 5
Number of European ETFs Made Available to Borrow for the underlying basket of securities. Some of this premium
350
could be put down to the structural cost of creating ETFs to
lend, such as stamp tax for U.K. equities, but the rates do imply
300 that the market is willing to pay for the convenience of bor-
250 rowing a single security. Another explanation for the premium
could be that the securities lending market for European ETFs is
200
still far from mature. While the number and value of European
150 ETFs in securities lending is increasing, it is still far below the
100 levels seen in the U.S. market. In the U.S., the lendable value
for the ETF market is in excess of $55.8 billion, with a value
50 on loan of $23 billion. This depth of supply results in much
$0 lower lending rates for U.S. ETFs. The average rate is close to,
Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 or marginally below, the management fee of the ETF. However,
the higher level of demand means the absolute value of revenue
Source: Data Explorers
from lending ETFs is higher than in Europe.
by lenders such as custodian banks saw a marked decrease
in the autumn of 2008 (Figure 3). Part of this decline can be 2010: What Does The Future Hold?
attributed to the drop in global equity values, and part is due While the data points to a strong lending market for
to the fact that some market participants suspended lending European ETFs in 2010, there are still areas of weakness.
during the extreme market conditions of 2008 and 2009. On the demand side, while swaps have a significant element of
While the value of the supply ended 2009 below the highs counterparty risk, they do not have the same recall risk as borrow-
52 March/April 2010
ing an ETF, and in some case, are cheaper than borrowing. If the tively higher cost should diminish if more institutions make
memory of Lehman Brothers fades over the course of the year, the their ETFs available to borrow. The increase in supply could
demand that European ETFs saw in 2009 may begin to fade. come about as more ETF owners realize that they can offset
An increase in the supply of European ETFs could, in turn, the ETF management fee by putting them into a securities
lead to an increase in demand. As additional supply comes lending program. This lending activity can help offset the
into the market, the advantages that swaps have over short- inherent tracking risk, which may make owning European
ing ETFs will continue to diminish. The risk of recall and rela- ETFs more attractive.
Endnotes
1 ETF Landscape Industry Preview Year End 2009, BlackRock Global ETF Research & Implementation Strategy Team
2 Source: Data Explorers
3 Ibid.
Endnote
1. Source: NYSE Euronext research databases
Bubble Decisions
By David Blitzer
T
he market’s major innovation of the last decade or slowly, giving people time to develop arguments about what
two is the return of the bubble. While banks, brokers might be happening. Bubbles can be big and explosive or
and others were hard at work developing new ways small and seemingly unchanging; they can switch from mod-
to make money in the investment markets, the market itself est price increases that slightly stretch valuations to booms
introduced the most powerful, and frustrating, innovation of and busts that threaten economies. They can make the tran-
all: short, steep boom-and-bust cycles better known as bub- sition in a year or a week.
bles. Some of the bubbles we’ve seen include tech stocks (and A defense against bubbles would be welcome. Currently
Nasdaq-listed stocks in general) in 2000, home prices in 2005- most regulators—who should be protecting us from such
2008 (in the U.S., the U.K. and Spain, among other places) and things—argue that in the middle of a bubble, one can’t tell
Chinese A-shares at various times in the last decade. that you’re in a bubble, and further efforts to control the
Few if any of the investment ideas of the last 20 years pro- bubble would slow the economy or collapse stock prices.
vided half as many gains as the bubbles took away. After all, Neither regulators nor investors are quite so powerless.
the S&P 500 opened 2010 lower than where it closed 2000, Forecasting with 100 percent accuracy may not be possible,
or for that matter, 1997. True, some people made money but that hasn’t stopped people from making and acting on
through the decade of the 2000s, but they were few in num- forecasts of bubbles or other market events. The worrisome
ber; the idea that one could participate in overall economic thing about trying to control bubbles is that policies to
growth by owning stocks just didn’t work. control a bubble, if applied when there is no bubble, might
Bubbles weren’t new in the 21st century—they’ve been indeed—as those regulators suggest—slow the economy
around since at least the 17th century, when there were tulip or end a bull market. While many of the myriad books and
bulbs in Holland. But they have returned with a vengeance. articles dissecting the financial crisis offer estimates of the
One of the most unfortunate things about bubbles is that costs of controlling bubbles or tools to predict bubbles, the
they don’t usually come with large warning signs reading big question is, how do we decide when to attack the bubble?
“Entering the Bubble Zone.” Rather, they seem to creep up A little crude analysis may help.
Figure 1
Bubble No Bubble
Market Condition Bubble 600 300
Regulators See No Bubble 1,000 0
30 March/April 2010
What we have, essentially, is a decision problem. If we’re maximum loss is 600. Taking the smaller of 1,000 and 600,
in a bubble, steps such as restricting trading, increasing the approach is a policy that assumes a bubble is occurring
margin requirements, or raising interest rates and trading and seeks to limit the damage, even though this would be
costs can rein in the boom before prices reach extremes. But costly if there is no bubble. Without arguing that the rela-
if these actions are taken and there is no bubble, regulators tive damages make sense, this is not what the Fed and other
will have killed off a bull market for no reason—not a popu- regulators did in 2005-2007.
lar action. On the other hand, if regulators assume there is However, this suggests that regulators should see
no danger and the bubble bursts, the resulting bear market bubbles everywhere they look and always attack bull mar-
and recession could be nasty. A diagram with some damage kets. This is not a very attractive policy—we can do better.
figures can sort this out (see Figure 1). While we can’t know for certain if we’re in a bubble until
The markets are either in a bubble or not. The two col- after the fact, we should be able to estimate the prob-
umns on the right represent the actual market condition: ability we’re in a bubble. For example, if the probability of
Bubble or No Bubble. The two rows represent the regula- being in a bubble is 30 percent and the probability of no
tors’ point of view: They either believe there is, or is not, a bubble is 70 percent, we can calculate the expected loss of
bubble. The numbers in the four boxes represent the dam- each policy choice. The expected loss of the bubble policy
ages caused by each case. (first row) is 30 percent of 600 plus 70 percent of 300, or
Starting in the upper left number box, if there is a bubble an overall loss of 390; the expected loss of the no-bubble
and the regulators guess correctly, the damage is 600; if the policy is 300 (30 percent of 1,000 plus 70 percent of zero).
regulators are wrong—they don’t see the bubble but it is In this case, the regulators should take the “we’re not in a
there—the damages are 1,000. Now suppose that there is bubble” approach because the expected loss is less. With a
no bubble (extreme right-hand column). If regulators are cor- little experimentation, providing that our loss numbers and
rect, the damage is zero (bottom right), while if the regula- probabilities make some sense, we can figure out (using
tors invoke policies to control a bubble that isn’t there, the our theoretical loss numbers) that if the probability of a
policy of tight money or trading restrictions still leads to bubble is greater than 43 percent, regulators should attack
damages of 300. (All these figures are just for illustration and the bubble. Different damage costs will lead to a different
are not based on real data or estimates.) number than the 43 percent. The higher the damage from
This little diagram, borrowed from statistical decision an unrecognized bubble, the lower the probability thresh-
analysis, can help people decide what to do. The standard old for attacking a bubble. Double the 1,000 figure, leave
approach to solving this kind of problem—called minimax the other loss estimates unchanged, and the 43 percent
in the literature—seeks to minimize the maximum loss that becomes 17 percent.
could be suffered. Although this sounds a bit pessimistic— Finding the necessary probability and loss data isn’t
expect the worst and limit its severity—it has been shown to impossible. Andrew Smithers, an investment analyst based in
be successful. For each choice the regulators could make— London, in a recent book, “Wall Street Revalued,” describes
bubble or no bubble—we find the maximum damage. Then measures that could be used to estimate the probability of
we choose the policy—bubble or no bubble—with the small- being in a bubble. Damage figures appear in many of the
est loss. Looking at the numbers here, the maximum loss if analyses of the recent financial crisis. Whether regulators,
we assume there is no bubble is 1,000 (bubble bursts and or investors, are willing to step into the markets and try to
we’re not expecting it), while if we expect the bubble, the manage bubbles remains to be seen.
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David Blanchett
32 March/April 2010
T
here are an increasing number of passive investing are invested in large cap, given that it is generally defined as
strategies available for investors, each offering a the largest 70 percent of securities based on market capital-
slightly different market exposure. While we would ization, it is somewhat surprising that such a large portion is
expect indexes with the same general market exposure (e.g., invested in a single style: large blend.
domestic large value) to have similar returns, past research Figure 1 includes the rolling three-year annualized perfor-
by Israelsen [2007], among others, has noted that the returns mance for the large blend indexes from each of the six different
of indexes can vary widely, even over prolonged time peri- index methodologies (S&P uses the same blend methodology
ods. Comparing indexes on returns alone, though, does not for both its regular and pure indexes, so the return for the S&P
account for risk. It could be that a large growth index from 500 has only been included once) from July 1997 to June 2009.
one family outperformed another during a historical period Note that rolling three-year periods were selected because the
just because it was less “large” or more “growth.” regression analysis in the following section is based on rolling
Therefore, the best way to compare indexes from different historical three-year periods (i.e., 36 months).
providers is to do so on a risk-adjusted basis, i.e., determine As shown in Figure 1, while the rolling annualized three-year
their respective alphas. While indexes are beta investments returns for the large blend indexes varied across providers, the
by definition—not alpha investments—given their varying returns were relatively similar, although significant differences
returns and construction methodologies, we would expect did exist at varying points in time. The maximum range in
some to outperform others on a risk-adjusted basis. This three-year returns during the entire test period for the six large
“alpha” component of seven different index methodologies blend indexes was the three-year period ending September
(and almost as many providers)—including the Dow Jones, 2001, where the Morningstar large blend index outperformed
Dow Jones Wilshire, Morningstar, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, the MSCI large blend index by 7.51 percent (per year, +6.70
Standard & Poor’s Pure and Russell index families—will be percent vs. -0.81 percent, respectively), while the minimum
explored in this paper, where alpha is determined using a four- range was in September 2000, where the Dow Jones large
factor regression model (i.e., Carhart model) consisting of the blend outperformed the S&P large blend index by 1.28 percent
three Fama/French factors and momentum. (per year, +17.72 percent vs. +16.44 percent, respectively).
Figure 2 includes the annualized returns of the indexes for
Indexes each style from July 1997 to June 2009, or a 12-year period.
Investors choose to invest in an index, or really an invest- Note that these returns were calculated by compounding the
ment that tracks an index such as a mutual fund or ETF, in order monthly returns obtained from Morningstar Direct, based on
to capture the return associated with that market exposure the same values used to create Figure 1.
without the variability (and often costs) associated with active The annualized performance differences may not appear
management. While the major index providers have similar large among the indexes in Figure 2, but they are material
methodologies for their domestic equity indexes (see Appendix given the time period (12 years). For example, the annualized
I for a summary of the methodologies for the index providers performance difference between the best-performing large-
included in the study), there are differences among them. These cap blend index (Morningstar at 2.78 percent) and the worst-
differences impact the performance and risk attributes for each performing large-cap blend index (MSCI at 0.15 percent) may
index, yet make it difficult for the average investor to compare be only 2.63 percent, but over 12 years this would result in a
the relative strengths and weaknesses of each strategy. difference of approximately 36 percent (with the investment
As a shortcut, many investors simply seek out the most in the Morningstar large-cap blend being 36 percent larger,
well-known index for investing purposes. For example, ignoring contributions). What is less clear, though, is what
according to the 2009 Investment Company Factbook, 58 the true “alpha” of the strategies is after accounting for their
percent of all assets invested in domestic equity index mutual
funds were tracking the S&P 500, despite the fact that many Figure 1
other indexes exist with similar market exposures. A better Rolling Three-Year Performance: Large Blends
approach would be to see which indexes actually outperform July 1997–June 2009
on a risk-adjusted basis, yet little research has been devoted 25%
to this topic. While one may expect that indexes would not 20%
3-Year Performance
Rolling Annualized
Figure 2
Category Dow Jones DJ Wilshire Morningstar MSCI S&P S&P Pure Russell
Source: Morningstar
Figure 3
Category Dow Jones DJ Wilshire Morningstar MSCI S&P S&P Pure Russell
34 March/April 2010
Where Rindex is the return on the index, Rf is the risk-free rate, index funds and ETFs as of June 30, 2009. This number
αindex is the alpha of the index, βindex is the index’s beta with reflects how investors actually invest in index funds at the
respect to the market, Rmarket is the return of the market, βSMB is total asset level, versus the simple average that is used for
the index’s beta with respect to the “large” factor (SMB), βHML statistical significance purposes for each methodology.
is the index’s beta with respect to the “value” factor (HML), Among the seven methodologies, five had positive average
βMOM is the index’s beta with respect to the “momentum” alphas (Dow Jones, Dow Jones Wilshire, Morningstar, S&P and
factor (MOM), and εasset is the error term. All monthly alpha S&P Pure), and S&P’s Pure methodology had the highest alpha,
estimates are annualized for comparative purposes. For those at 1.16 percent, although only Morningstar had an average alpha
readers not familiar with four-factor regression approach, see that was statistically significant (with an average alpha of 0.74
Fama and French [1993] and Carhart [1997]. percent and a t statistic of 2.05). On a weighted basis, five meth-
Cremers, Petajisto and Zitzewitz [2008] have noted that the odologies had positive alphas: Dow Jones Wilshire, Morningstar,
standard Fama-French (three-factor) and Carhart (four-factor) S&P, S&P Pure and Russell, with Morningstar having the highest
regression models can produce statistically significant nonzero weighted alpha, of 1.12 percent, which could largely be attrib-
alphas for passive indexes primarily from the disproportionate uted to the alpha of its large blend index (1.32 percent).
weight the Fama-French factors place on small value stocks The range of outperformance decreases on a risk-adjusted
(which have performed well). While Cremers et al. introduce basis (Figure 3) when compared with the raw outperformance
regression factors that outperform standard models in their (Figure 2), to 3.57 percent from 4.28 percent, respectively.
paper, the traditional four-factor estimates are used for this There were also some changes in relative outperformance
research, due to their widespread use and acceptance. While the when viewed on a risk-adjusted basis. For example, over the
reader may contend that an index (i.e., a broad, well-diversified 12-year test period the Dow Jones Wilshire Small Growth
and passive portfolio) should not have an alpha component by Index outperformed the Dow Jones Small Growth Index by
definition, using a method that is widely employed to determine 0.09 percent (on an annualized basis, 2.75 percent and 2.66
alpha for active managers (the four-factor Carhart approach with percent, respectively); however, on a risk-adjusted basis, the
the traditional Fama-French factors) can in fact generate one. Dow Jones Small Growth Index outperformed the Dow Jones
For the analysis, regressions are based on rolling three- Wilshire Small Growth Index by .89 percent (on an annual-
year periods, which consist of 36 months of historical data. ized basis, 0.02 percent and -0.87 percent, respectively).
Rolling periods are used versus a single period to account The respective alpha estimates for the various indexes
for potential changing market exposures of the indexes over were quite consistent during the test period, both on a
time, as well as to make the analysis less dependent on the relative and absolute basis. Figure 4 provides an example; it
period studied. For example, if an index methodology did very includes the rolling three-year four-factor regression alphas
well the first and last months of the test look-back period, it for the large blend indexes included in the analysis.
may appear that it generated alpha during the entire study, As shown in the graph, while the absolute numbers fluctu-
despite the fact it dramatically under-performed the months in ate over time, the relative rankings change very little during
between. Also, the average implied holding period for equity the test period. In the aggregate, when viewed at the ranked
mutual funds is approximately three years based on a cur- index level, Dow Jones, Dow Jones Wilshire, Morningstar,
rent redemption rate of 30 percent per year [ICI 2009], which S&P and S&P Pure tended to have relatively consistent rank-
makes the rolling three-year regression method more relevant ings that were slightly above average, while MSCI and Russell
to how investors actually invest in equity mutual funds. had rankings that tended to be significantly below average
Seven different index methodologies are considered for (they also were the two methodologies with negative aver-
the analysis: Dow Jones, Dow Jones Wilshire, Morningstar, age alphas). The persistence in alpha should not be that
MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Standard & Poor’s Pure and Russell,
with the actual underlying tested indexes listed in Appendix Figure 4
II. The time period for the analysis is from July 1997 until Rolling Three-Year Four-Factor Regression Annualized
June 2009, which is the longest period for which data was Alphas For Large Blend Indexes: July 1997-June 2009
available for the different indexes (all nine domestic styles for 8%
each of the seven different providers). Using the same period 6%
for all methodologies allows for a more relative comparison
4-Factor Alpha
4%
than using the entire period of data available for each index. 2%
The total number of three-year test periods is 109.
0%
-2%
Results
-4%
The average four-factor regression alphas for each of the
-6%
idexes for each style are included in Figure 3, as well as the Jun Oct Mar Jul Dec Apr Aug
average alpha across styles, standard deviation of alphas 00 01 03 04 05 07 08
across styles and the average alpha across the styles’ t sta- 3-Year Period Ending
tistics for each methodology. Information on the weighted ■ Dow Jones ■ Morningstar ■ S&P
outperformance is also included, where the respective alphas ■ DJ Wilshire ■ MSCI ■ Russell
are weighted by the total net assets invested in all passive Sources: Morningstar, Kenneth French
36 March/April 2010
turnover and to better reflect the investment process of asset managers. Eight different variables (three for value and five for growth) are used to better represent value and growth styles.
Value attributes are: book value to price ratio, 12-months forward earnings to price ratio, and dividend yield. Growth attributes are: long-term forward earnings per share (EPS) growth
rate, short-term forward EPS growth rate, current internal growth rate, long-term historical EPS growth trend, long-term historical sales per share growth trend. (www.mscibarra.com)
Standard & Poor’s: Standard & Poor’s U.S. indexes are maintained by the U.S. Index Committee, which meets monthly and comprises eight full-time professional members of
Standard & Poor’s staff. Unadjusted market capitalization of $3 billion or more for the S&P 500 (approximately 75 percent of U.S. equities), $750 million to $3.3 billion for the
S&P Mid Cap 400 (approximately 7 percent of U.S. equities), and $200 million to $1.0 billion for the S&P Small Cap 600 (approximately 3 percent of U.S. equities). The market cap
of a potential addition to an index is looked at in the context of its short- and medium-term historical trends, as well as those of its industry. Adequate liquidity and reasonable
price—the ratio of annual dollar value traded to market capitalization—should be 0.3 or greater. Various domicile requirements; public float of at least 50 percent of the stock;
rules to minimize turnover. Changes to the U.S. indexes are made as needed, with no annual or semiannual reconstitution.
The Style index series divides the complete market capitalization of each parent index approximately equally into growth and value indexes. This series covers all stocks in the parent
index universe, and uses the conventional, cost-efficient market-cap-weighting scheme. The style indexes measure growth and value along two separate dimensions, with three factors
used to measure growth and four factors used to measure value. Growth factors: five-year earnings per share growth, five-year sales per share growth rate and five-year internal growth
rate (IGR). Value factors: book value to price ratio, cash flow to price ratio, sales to price ratio, and dividend yield. A growth score for each company is computed as the average of the
standardized values of the three growth factors. Similarly, a value score for each company is computed as the average of the standardized values of the four value factors.
Style Index Series: This series divides the complete market capitalization of each parent index approximately equally into growth and value indexes while limiting the num-
ber of stocks that overlap between them. This series is exhaustive (i.e., covering all stocks in the parent index universe) and uses the conventional, cost-efficient, market-
capitalization-weighting scheme.
Pure Style Index Series: The pure style index series identifies approximately one-third of the parent index’s market capitalization as pure growth and one-third as pure value.
There are no overlapping stocks, and these indexes do not have the size bias induced by market-capitalization weighting; rather, stocks are weighted in proportion to their
relative style attractiveness. (http://www2.standardandpoors.com/)
Russell: U.S. common stocks are ranked from largest to smallest based on free-float market capitalization at each annual reconstitution date, which is May 31. The largest 1,000 stocks
become the Russell 1000 Index, the largest 800 stocks in the Russell 1000 become the Russell Mid Cap Index and the next largest 2,000 stocks (after the largest 1,000 stocks) become
the Russell 2000 Index. Style is determined by ranking each stock by two variables: the book to price ratio and the I/B/E/S forecast long-term growth mean. The variables are combined
to create a composite value score (CVS) for each stock. The stocks are then ranked by their CVS, and a nonlinear probability algorithm is applied to the distribution to determine style
membership weights. Roughly 70 percent are classified as all value or all growth and 30 percent are weighted proportionately to both value and growth. (www.russell.com)
Morningstar MSCI
Large Growth Morningstar Large Growth MSCI US Large Cap Growth
Large Blend Morningstar Large Core MSCI US Large Cap 300
Large Value Morningstar Large Value MSCI US Large Cap Value
Mid-Cap Growth Morningstar Mid Growth MSCI US Mid Cap Growth
Mid-Cap Blend Morningstar Mid Core MSCI US Mid Cap 450
Mid-Cap Value Morningstar Mid Value MSCI US Mid Cap Value
Small Growth Morningstar Small Growth MSCI US Small Cap Growth
Small Blend Morningstar Small Core MSCI US Small Cap 1750
Small Value Morningstar Small Value MSCI US Small Cap Value
continued on page 67
Works Cited
“2009 Investment Company Fact Book.” Investment Company Institute. http://www.icifactbook.org/.
Carhart, Mark M. 1997. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance,” Journal of Finance, vol. 52: No. 1, 57-82.
Cremers, Martijn, Antti Petajisto, and Eric Zitzewitz. 2008. “Should Benchmark Indices Have Alpha? Revisiting Performance Evaluation.” Working paper version July 31, 2008.
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French. 1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Bonds and Stocks,” Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 33: 3-53.
French, Kenneth R., http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html
Israelsen, Craig. 2007. “Variance Among Indexes.” Journal of Indexes, May/June: 26-29
References
Christopherson, J.A., D.R. Cariño and W.E. Ferson (2009). “Portfolio Performance Measurement and Benchmarking,” McGraw-Hill.
Gardner, G. and A. Sirohi (2009). “The Russell Target Date Performance Metric: Description of Methodology,” Russell Research, August.
Goodwin, T. (1998). “The Information Ratio,” Financial Analysts Journal. July/August, pp. 34-43.
Maxie, D. (2009). “Getting Personal: Target date funds find ways to cut costs.” Wall Street Journal, August 3.
Spaulding, D. and J.A. Tzitzouris, ed. (2009). “Classics in Investment Performance Measurement,” The Spaulding Group.
Endnotes
1Maxie (2009).
2For calculation specifications, see Gardner and Sirohi (2009).
3The total return of global equity as measured by the 67 percent/33 percent mix of the Russell 3000 and Russell Global ex-U.S. Indexes minus the return of the Barclays Capital U.S Aggregate
Bond Index.
Disclosures
Russell Investments is a Washington, USA Corporation, which operates through subsidiaries worldwide and is a subsidiary
of The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company.
By Gary Gastineau
38 March/April 2010
I
n Parts One and Two of this article series, I examined speech, Chairman Cox actually applied the “don’t try this at
how reported fund expenses and less readily measurable home” admonition (which he attributed to reports describ-
expenses like transaction costs reduce fund returns. I sug- ing one of Harry Houdini’s feats) to the difficulty of extract-
gested using the definition of index tracking error commonly ing useful fund data from SEC reports without XBRL. On my
used by ETF analysts and advisers to organize the analysis of Scouts’ honor, the Mr. Wizard story in Part Two of this article
the elements that determine how well or how poorly a fund and the rest of this discussion of XBRL was part of a draft
performs. In this third and final article, I describe XBRL, the before the former Chairman made his speech.
key to the availability of accurate fund data and to the devel- XBRL is an open standard. It carries no royalty or licens-
opment of improved fund evaluation software that investors ing fees. The availability of clean data in a standard format
and advisers will use to improve fund selection. I also adress from most funds will permit an adviser or even a committed
some specialized tools that are useful in examining and individual investor to analyze funds with more reliable data
evaluating important fund features. than the best fund services have today. In addition to data
assembly and analytical macros provided by financial Web
Extensible Business Reporting Language: The New sites, a wide range of analysts and market pundits will be
Data Standard For Corporate And Fund Reporting able to produce custom analyses at low cost. Questions that
So far, fund industry use of XBRL consists of a few over- are rarely asked because the data to answer them has been
publicized SEC filings of risk/return summary information inaccessible will be asked and answered with ease. Everyone
from a small number of mutual fund prospectuses. The who cares will have free access to a better fund database
published information includes a few details of the funds’ than any fund service could assemble today. The fund rating
investment objectives, costs and historical performance. organizations will be competing with developers of new fund
The applicability of XBRL to a full range of financial data is analysis and evaluation software. Investors and their advisers
illustrated by the fact that it is now mandatory for many cor- will be the beneficiaries of this competition.
porate filings with the SEC. With required use of XBRL, the The downside to the XBRL story is that a full XBRL report-
accuracy of available corporate financial data has improved ing standard is not yet mandatory for funds. Some funds may
dramatically. The Investment Company Institute (ICI) has cre- decide not to use XBRL for all data, including important non-
ated XBRL categories and templates for mutual fund filings.1 financial data. It is impossible to predict the pace at which
When this project is fully operational, funds will report to the the XBRL standard will be rolled out and the data from it roll
SEC using the XBRL format, and fund analysts and advisers in. If most of the major fund companies submit a full range
will be able to use XBRL to assemble data for a full range of of XBRL data, the pressure on other funds to conform will be
fund analyses and comparisons. powerful. Realistically, however, a critical mass of funds is
The significance of full XBRL fund reporting is that ana- unlikely to submit full data without a mandatory standard.
lysts will be able to access specified elements of data, ana- The “financial crisis” of 2008 diverted attention from
lyze data from an individual fund or do comparative analyses the SEC’s normal operations and, unfortunately, diverted
of competitive funds. Most of the analyses illustrated in Part attention from XBRL, of which former Chairman Cox was a
Two will be performed using spreadsheets and macros or major advocate. Chairman Schapiro is as fully attuned to the
formal programs for periodic reports and comparisons. The regulatory needs of fund investors as anyone, but she and
key underlying change will be standardization and tagging of her colleagues at the SEC have far too many issues that need
fund data elements so that the data everyone uses will be the their attention. Fortunately, the case for XBRL fund data is
data the fund files with the SEC. compelling. The advantages of XBRL data from funds are so
To understand the potential significance of compre- great that the XBRL rollout will provide data necessary to
hensive XBRL data, one need only read the descriptions of reduce other elements of the commission’s workload.
gathering, “cleaning” and screening mutual fund data in the
academic studies of funds that have been undertaken over There Is A Wide Range Of Quality
the past 20 years. Mutual fund data extraction has moved In Fund Touts, Tools And Techniques
from handwritten ledgers to manual copying of poorly for- After an adviser and investor have worked together for a
matted hard copy SEC filings to special-purpose text search reasonable period of time, the investor might understand the
methods that extract data from eclectic electronic reports adviser’s thinking process well enough that a simple recom-
filed with the SEC. Today changing formats, missing data mendation to buy or sell a specific ETF might be accepted
items and confusing aggregations of fund family data that at once in the context of a specific investment application.
differ in format from one period to the next make data col- Obviously, that level of acceptance will only be possible after
lection the hardest part of any comparative analysis of funds. the investor is thoroughly familiar with the adviser’s deci-
Different fund services often publish different numbers for sion-making processes and has no specific questions about
the same fund. The adoption and widespread use of XBRL for the proposed transaction. The investor will know that if he
fund data will not eliminate fund data problems overnight, has a question, the adviser will have the answer and, from
but it promises to revolutionize most fund comparisons. The experience, that the answer will be fully satisfactory.
best description of the advantages XBRL brings to fund data An investor might develop a high degree of confidence
analysis that I have seen is in a speech former SEC Chairman in the analysis and recommendations of a published fund
Cox gave to a group of financial analysts in late 2008.2 In his evaluation or rating service; but most published recommen-
40 March/April 2010
The reason for measuring correlation over a sequence with a high active share shows indications of being a truly
of periods is that correlations that may be low in normal actively managed fund—at least relative to the index used as
markets are often high in bear markets. This is most often a benchmark.6 The active share can be a useful measure of
observed in cross-border equity markets where low correla- the intensity of the fund manager’s effort to deliver an active
tion in bull markets is replaced by near-perfect correlation management return. A fund with a low active share suggests
in bear markets—the precise time when lack of correlation the manager’s lack of confidence in an active investment pro-
or, even better, negative correlation is most valuable.4 The cess or, simply, inability to deliver active management.
absence of a simple, comprehensive and highly flexible cor- Some “enhanced” index funds attempt to provide only
relation tool illustrates the greatest problem with the largely modest deviations from the benchmark and keep tracking
free but limited—function tools available to fund investors error (standard deviation definition) low relative to the
on the Internet: A good correlation tool is inherently costly benchmark index. This is a reasonable investment strat-
to maintain because it requires (1) a database of historical egy, and failure to achieve a substantial active share is not
returns for a large number of financial instruments, including necessarily an indictment of an enhanced index fund man-
proprietary indexes; and (2) the capability to combine finan- ager whose mandate includes a standard deviation tracking
cial instruments and portfolio products in a variety of combi- constraint. However, a small active share does suggest a
nations and weightings over a number of time intervals. relatively modest effort at return enhancement and should
command a relatively modest active management fee.
Active Share The greatest significance of active share is that Cremers
Active security selection is undertaken to create a portfolio and Petajisto found that funds with higher active shares have
that is different from a fund’s benchmark index in ways that tended to deliver significantly better performance. The best
are expected to improve investor returns. A useful measure single explanation for that result is that the managers of
of portfolio differentiation relative to a benchmark index is a funds with low active share measures were closet indexers
calculation called active share. This calculation is described with active management fees. In that context, it is certainly
and developed extensively by Cremers and Petajisto.5 Active worth looking at an active share calculation as an indication
share measures the extent to which a portfolio differs from a of the nature of a fund’s investment process.
benchmark index. To calculate a fund’s active share relative The magnitude of a fund’s tracking error (standard devia-
to a particular index, the easiest procedure is to calculate the tion definition) has no apparent effect on performance, sug-
percentage composition of the index, security by security, gesting that individual stock selection is more likely to be a
and perform a similar percentage composition calculation for successful fund management strategy than factor bets.7 An
the portfolio being evaluated to measure the correspondence above-average prior-year return combined with a large active
between the portfolio and the index. To the extent that the share tends to presage further above-average performance.8
same security appears on both lists, the smaller percentage Average tracking error (standard deviation definition) has
for that security in either the index or the fund portfolio is little correlation with performance.9 An active share over 80
listed in the Correspondence column and the percentages combined with a modest tracking error (standard deviation)
in that column are summed as illustrated in the calculation suggests careful risk management and a serious attempt to
in Figure 1. If the correspondence percentage or overlap deliver value for investors.
between the index and the portfolio sum to 65 percent, the There is an important caveat to bear in mind when con-
active share—that is the difference in portfolio composition sidering the implications of active share. Like many other
as a result of the fund’s active investment process—is 100 variables that are measured, the act of measuring active
percent minus 65 percent, or a 35 percent active share. share may cause its significance to change. That the act of
The greater the active share, the greater the divergence measurement can change the characteristics of the item
of the fund portfolio from the benchmark index and, pre- measured is a maxim in such diverse disciplines as quan-
sumably, the more “active” the investment process. A fund tum physics and monetary policy. If active share becomes
a popular calculation, a closet indexer might create an
Figure 1
artificially high active share by systematically increasing
Percentage Holdings a portfolio’s composition differences relative to an index
without even attempting to improve the fund’s return. The
possibility of gaming a solitary active share measure is a
Stock Fund Index Correspondence strong argument for the proposition that no single fund
A 35% 20% 20%
evaluation measure should stand alone.
B 40% 20% 20%
Statistical Measures Of Active Manager Performance
C 20% 35% 20% In addition to correlation and active share calculations,
D 5% 25% 5% a number of other tools and calculations are available to
Total 100% 100% 65% permit investors to measure the nature of the management
Active Share = = 100% minus Correspondence process and the effectiveness of the manager. Beta can pro-
= 100% - 65% = 35%
vide a measure of the extent to which the portfolio manager
continued on page 54
54 March/April 2010
acceptable formal governance ratings highly questionable. should also be possible. The fact that a case involving fund
To illustrate the scope for differences of opinion along the fees has reached the Supreme Court suggests far-from-uni-
“fee” dimension, Wallison and Litan15 present a strong argu- versal agreement on fund fee issues.
ment that requiring fund directors to approve a fund’s invest- If a fund service insists on taking a stance on fund gov-
ment management fee discourages price competition among ernance, it should consider any specific governance issue it
investment managers. The stickiness of fees in the face of deems relevant to a fund and either accept the governance
heavy emphasis on expense ratios in fund comparisons sug- and ethical standards at a fund company and not discuss
gests that Wallison and Litan have a point. It would certainly them or reject them entirely with a full explanation of the
not harm investors in existing funds to permit managers of reasons behind the rejection. Either a question or problem
new funds to experiment with a fund’s fee structure. As long is serious enough to encourage investors to avoid the fund
as disclosure of the possible range of fees is adequate from or it is not important enough or definitive enough to affect
the first day the fund is offered to investors, changes in fees an investment decision. Beyond a statement of the facts of
by these new funds and adoption of fee structures that are a situation, complexity in fund governance analysis and rela-
different from the fulcrum performance fees now required tive governance ratings will rarely be either fair or useful.
Endnotes
1 The early status of the Investment Company Institute XBRL Initiative is summarized in McMillan, Karrie, “Remarks at XBRL International Conference,” Vancouver, British Columbia,
Dec. 4, 2007. The timing of further XBRL implementation is difficult to forecast but the ICI seems to be the fund industry’s organization of choice for this effort. You can see where
the SEC stands on XBRL by starting at http://www.sec.gov/spotlight/xbrl.shtml. There is even a rudimentary mutual fund viewer that lets you create a simple fund comparison report
for two or three funds. A visit will impress you with both the potential for improved fund data and with how far the process has to go.
2 See Cox, Christopher, “Disclosure from the User’s Perspective,” CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, September 2008, pp. 10-15.
3 In fairness to iShares, the cost of licensing a wide range of indexes just for this application would probably be prohibitive.
4 Chua, David B., Mark Kritzman and Sébastien Page, “The Myth of Diversification,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 2009, vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 26-35 provides a useful look
at the asymmetry of diversification.
5 Cremers, Martijn and Antti Petajisto, “How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure that Predicts Performance,” Review of Financial Studies, September 2009, vol. 22,
No. 9, pp. 3329-3365.
6 In calculating active share, it is often useful to make the calculation relative to a number of benchmark indexes. While the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 are highly correlated, a closet
indexer using the Russell 1000 as a fund template might have a greater active share measured against the S&P 500 than measured against the (more relevant for this fund) Russell 1000.
Cremers and Petajisto measured active share against a variety of major indexes and assumed the benchmark was the index that showed the lowest active share, (p. 3340).
7 Cremers and Petajisto, p. 3332.
8 Ibid, pp. 3354-3355.
9 Ibid, pp. 3350-3353.
10 Wright, Christopher, “Cleaning Closets,” CFA Magazine, September/October 2008, vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 20-21.
11 Gastineau, Gary L., Andrew R. Olma and Robert G. Zielinski, “Equity Portfolio Management,” Chapter 7, in Maginn, John L., Donald L. Tuttle, Jerald E. Pinto and Dennis W.
McLeavey, “Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process,” pp. 407-476. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 2007.
12 Ertugrul, Mine and Shantaram Hegde, “Corporate Governance Ratings and Firm Performance,” Financial Management, vol. 38, No. 1, Spring 2009, pp. 139-160.
13 Wellman, Jay and Jian Zhou, “Corporate Governance and Mutual Fund Performance: A First Look at the Morningstar Stewardship Grades,” Unpublished Working Paper, March
18, 2008.
14 Haslem, John A., “Mutual Funds,” Wiley, 2010, p. 312.
15 Wallison, Peter J. and Robert E. Litan, “Competitive Equity: A Better Way to Organize Mutual Funds,” The AEI Press, Washington, D.C., 2007.
Endnotes
1 Source: DB Index Research, Weekly ETF reports—Europe, January 21, 2010
References
BlackRock Advisors, ETF Landscape, Industry Preview, Year End 2009
Bloomberg
DB Index Research, Weekly ETF reports—Europe, January 21, 2010
42 March/April 2010
T
arget date funds are becoming increasingly important ferent the glide paths—the dynamic allocation to equity and
as investment solutions for retirement savings plans. In bonds—can be from one fund family to another.
2007, the U.S. Department of Labor recognized target
date funds as a possible suitable choice as the default investment Conventional Performance Measures
option for defined contribution plans, and subsequently there Do Not Work For Target Date Funds
has been a surge of assets into these funds. As of April 2009, Traditional fund performance measures use time-weight-
assets under management in target date funds are estimated to ed portfolio returns over various periods—one month, one
be close to $314 billion.1 Investment managers have responded year, three years, etc. They group similar funds into a per-
with new products and redesigns of existing products. formance universe, comparing them against each other and
For the individual investor, investment adviser or plan spon- against a passive market index benchmark.
sor, selecting from among the variety of target date products is These measures work well for typical single-asset-class
a formidable task. One of the fundamental problems is the lack funds and can be adapted to evaluate multi-asset-class funds
of an objective, returns-based measure of performance that is with static asset allocations. However, they have serious
appropriate for evaluating target date funds. While investment shortcomings when applied to target date funds.
decisions should never be based solely on past performance, For one, the choice of a benchmark portfolio for a given
any investor choosing among families of target date funds target date fund is problematic. Over any evaluation period,
(whether an individual investor, personal investment adviser, performance will differ among the target date funds in a
plan sponsor or plan participant) is going to ask: “How have fund family, because each fund has a different asset alloca-
they performed? Have they done better than some simple tion. It seems sensible that each target date fund should
but reasonable benchmark? How has the family of funds I am have its own benchmark. For example, the return of a 2035
considering done relative to peers?” Over time, the investor fund could be compared with the return of a weighted com-
will also need to know: “How will I be able to tell if my fund is posite of stock and fixed-income indexes that is appropriate
doing what the investment manager said it would do?” for 2035 funds. This date-specific return would be based
In this article, we provide an introduction to target date upon the performance of a “benchmark” target date fund
funds and identify the key determinants of differences in that evolves along a benchmark glide path. Calculation of
performance across target date fund families. We elucidate this benchmark return, however, necessitates assumptions
why the traditional approach to benchmarking and perfor- about the glide path (the structure of the changing alloca-
mance analysis, which has long been tested for single-asset- tions to stocks and bonds over the life of the target date
class and static-mix investment products, fails to meet the fund) and the asset mix within the stock and bond asset
needs of target date fund performance measurement. We classes. Existing target date fund index providers employ
identify the desirable properties such a measure would have differing complex glide path and asset mix assumptions and
and introduce a measure that meets those requirements. different methodologies regarding glide path construction.
There is also no metric for a fund family’s aggregate
How Do Target Date Funds Work? performance. Even if benchmark portfolios for individual
Although target date funds are offered by many invest- target date funds are available to produce performance
ment managers with varying investment philosophies, they numbers on a fund-by-fund basis, using such benchmarks
nonetheless share common features. The investor chooses a can lead to poor choices. Comparing funds across differ-
fund with a target date close to his or her retirement—for ent target dates is problematic. Consider this example:
example, Target Date Fund 2040—and makes regular contri-
Figure 1
butions. The fund manager selects appropriate asset classes,
specifies an allocation among them that evolves over the life Glide Paths
of the fund, and devises the best investment strategy within
each asset class. Thus, there are three major components to % Equity
target date fund performance: 1) the glide path (the evolu- 100%
tion of the mix between equity and fixed income; 2) the 90%
allocation among the sectors of the broad equity and fixed-
80%
income asset classes; and 3) implementation through active
and/or passive vehicles within each asset class. While all of 70%
44 March/April 2010
ticipants’ contributions increase as the target date gets Performance Universe Example
closer, estimates of the growth in contributions vary. Figure 2 shows TDM calculations for nine randomly
• A simple and feasible (if primitive) benchmark is a selected actual fund families over various performance
constant allocation of 40 percent Russell 3000®, 20 intervals ending in June 2009. This table illustrates a basic
percent Russell Global ex-U.S. Index and 40 percent performance universe.
Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. This The essential requirement of a performance universe is to
benchmark reflects the returns to a balanced fund provide an unambiguous rank ordering of the universe mem-
with a constant allocation mix to stocks and bonds, bers over a specified return history. This ordering creates a
and as such, is a transparent, investable alternative single number that represents the overall performance of all
to target date funds. target date funds in a family. Moreover, as just discussed,
Using these assumptions, we calculate a periodic bench- the TDM quantifies the magnitude by which each fund fam-
mark over a specific evaluation horizon that is a valid esti- ily outperforms the benchmark, as well as the magnitude by
mate of the true value of the target date metric. which one family outperforms another universe member.
From Figure 2 we observe:
Interpreting The TDM • Family 1 is the only one that outperforms the bench-
The TDM is the ratio of the wealth generated by a family mark over the one- and two-year periods.
of target date funds to the wealth generated by the bench- • Over the most recent quarter, all fund families have
mark fund over a specific time period. If a fund family’s TDM outperformed the benchmark; Family 1 comes in sev-
over a three-month period is 105, that indicates that the enth out of nine over the quarter.
fund family generated 5 percent more in target date wealth While every aspect of a fund family’s investment pro-
over those three months than did the benchmark portfolio. cess—the glide path, allocations among sectors of the
Each evaluation horizon—three months, one year, three fixed-income and equity asset classes, the use and success of
years, etc.—will have its own value of the TDM. active management, etc.—influences the returns and hence
The TDMs of different families over the same evaluation the TDM, it is possible to determine some general character-
period can be compared directly with each other, meaning that istics of the investment policy and the return environment
conventional performance universes can be constructed at the that drive universe ranking.
family-of-funds level. For example, suppose that for this three- The primary drivers are the overall equity/fixed-
month period, the TDM for the Fundco target date funds was income allocation along the glide path and the relative
110, while the competitor SaveMore target date funds had a returns to equity and fixed income over an evaluation
TDM of 121. These values mean that over these three months: interval. Generally, fund families with higher overall
• Fundco’s target date funds added 10 percent more to equity allocations will rank higher than those with lower
retirement wealth than the benchmark portfolio, while equity allocations in periods when stocks outperform
SaveMore’s target date funds added 21 percent more. bonds. This characteristic seems obvious, and would be
• SaveMore’s funds outperformed Fundco’s funds— trivial if the families’ glide paths never “crossed.” That is
SaveMore’s funds added 10 percent more to retire- to say, if for any possible pair of glide paths in the uni-
ment wealth than did Fundco’s (121 is 10 percent verse, one family had a higher allocation to equity than
larger than 110). the other family at every point on the glide path, then
the family with the consistently higher equity allocation
Figure 2 would likely have a higher TDM than the other over
evaluation periods when stocks outperformed bonds.
TDM For Periods Ending
June 30, 2009
However, glide paths of families do indeed cross, and it
is important to consider an overall measure of relative
Family
3 1 2 3 performance for this very reason.
Months Year Year Year The sample universe in Figure 2 gives a sense of the
Family 1 114.1 100.3 105.0 92.1 range of values in a TDM performance universe. Note
Family 2 125.2 86.3 76.4 74.6 that for every evaluation period except the most recent
Family 3 110.4 80.0 75.9 74.3
quarter, bonds outperformed stocks by a significant mar-
gin. The distinct difference between the performance of
Family 4 142.2 73.5 64.8 66.5
Family 1 and the other members of the universe suggests
Family 5 112.8 73.0 68.4 63.2 that Family 1 may have a generally higher bond exposure
Family 6 123.2 69.0 70.8 63.0 than the other families. Family 9’s performance over the
Family 7 131.0 65.0 63.6 60.0 different periods suggests a high equity allocation. This
Family 8 125.6 74.6 62.7 53.9 sample universe demonstrates that the TDM captures
Family 9 133.6 50.2 45.2 42.9
the impact on performance of notable differences among
target date fund products.
TDM Equity – Bond Return3 19.2% –33.8% –49.1% –40.8%
Performance ranking is sensitive to time period. This is
Sources: Russell, Barclays Capital, Morningstar continued on page 67
Works Cited
“2009 Investment Company Fact Book.” Investment Company Institute. http://www.icifactbook.org/.
Carhart, Mark M. 1997. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance,” Journal of Finance, vol. 52: No. 1, 57-82.
Cremers, Martijn, Antti Petajisto, and Eric Zitzewitz. 2008. “Should Benchmark Indices Have Alpha? Revisiting Performance Evaluation.” Working paper version July 31, 2008.
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French. 1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Bonds and Stocks,” Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 33: 3-53.
French, Kenneth R., http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html
Israelsen, Craig. 2007. “Variance Among Indexes.” Journal of Indexes, May/June: 26-29
References
Christopherson, J.A., D.R. Cariño and W.E. Ferson (2009). “Portfolio Performance Measurement and Benchmarking,” McGraw-Hill.
Gardner, G. and A. Sirohi (2009). “The Russell Target Date Performance Metric: Description of Methodology,” Russell Research, August.
Goodwin, T. (1998). “The Information Ratio,” Financial Analysts Journal. July/August, pp. 34-43.
Maxie, D. (2009). “Getting Personal: Target date funds find ways to cut costs.” Wall Street Journal, August 3.
Spaulding, D. and J.A. Tzitzouris, ed. (2009). “Classics in Investment Performance Measurement,” The Spaulding Group.
Endnotes
1Maxie (2009).
2For calculation specifications, see Gardner and Sirohi (2009).
3The total return of global equity as measured by the 67 percent/33 percent mix of the Russell 3000 and Russell Global ex-U.S. Indexes minus the return of the Barclays Capital U.S Aggregate
Bond Index.
Disclosures
Russell Investments is a Washington, USA Corporation, which operates through subsidiaries worldwide and is a subsidiary
of The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company.
46 March/April 2010
S
electing the appropriate target date fund (TDF) is a Risk Of Bundled Services
challenge for even the most sophisticated profession- The TDF manager’s bundling of four methodologies into a
als. As evidenced over the past two years, there can single product can mask the embedded risks associated with
be a wide disparity in the performance of TDFs, making the poor choices at any of the four steps. Major differences in
risk of picking a single provider significant. This paper pres- asset allocation exist but are not always obvious. For example,
ents a new TDF index based on a dynamic market average, some TDFs have high-yield bonds, TIPS and emerging market
thereby avoiding risks associated with a single provider’s investments in their asset class models; others don’t. A poorly
methodology. This paper also presents a methodology designed retirement methodology may not provide young
framework that can be used to build custom target date investors with enough market risk to grow their capital, or
solutions based on different market assumptions. The TDF may expose late-stage workers to excessive market risk. A poor
index mitigates asset allocation and retirement methodol- investment manager selection in any one of the tracker funds
ogy risks while allowing an institution/adviser to add value for asset classes could result in overly concentrated portfolios,
based on investment selection. The index’s methodology excess turnover with high tracking error and high manage-
framework allows an institution to create a customized ver- ment fees. Some TDFs in 2008 were caught with illiquid fixed-
sion of a target date index based on its specific needs. income securities that had been characterized as low-risk cash
TDFs are designed to automatically manage inves- equivalents. Lastly, a poorly designed rebalancing algorithm
tor assets with an age-appropriate investment strategy can result in high tracking error to the target asset allocation,
that becomes more conservative as the target date is or might not reinvest the dividends on a timely basis.
approached. Target date funds can provide a good option
for plan sponsors and advisers looking for an automated Existing Target Date Industry Indexes
way to maintain appropriate diversification over time, but Standard indexes are created in order to measure market
selecting the appropriate target date funds has been a performance by providing a reference point for peer invest-
challenge for even the most sophisticated professionals. ment funds managers. In addition, standard indexes provide
This is because TDFs bundle investment management with an alternative for investors to implement using low-cost
retirement advice to combine four methodologies that mutual funds and ETFs. The TDF indexing market is more
result in a single package that is easy to use, but difficult complex since there are multiple types of risk embedded
to decipher. in the target date market. Defining the market is the first
Four methodologies bundled by TDF managers: step. Firms such as Dow Jones and Morningstar have created
1. an asset allocation methodology that specifies a set of target date benchmark index series based on proprietary
efficient portfolios methodologies (see Figure 3). These firms derive and pres-
2. a retirement methodology that determines a glide path ent an index series for advisers and investment managers to
with a changing portfolio allocation track and benchmark against. But since most asset managers
3. a fund selection methodology that tracks asset class believe they are equally or more qualified to derive asset allo-
benchmarks cations and glide paths, Dow Jones and Morningstar indexes
4. a rebalancing methodology of funds that tracks the can be classified in the same category as any asset manager:
target asset allocation They are third-party methodologies encapsulating the index
As was apparent in 2008 and 2009, making active decisions creators’ own unique proprietary views and risks. Investable
about four contributing methodologies that apply to TDFs
provides many opportunities for performance divergence. Figure 1
Morningstar DJ Real
Methodology S&P TD Index
Lifetime Index Return TD Index
TDF solutions based on these TDF indexes pose the same MarketGlide Target Date Index Series
risks of a single provider as discussed above. The MarketGlide Target Date Index (MGI) Series is a set of
The only major benchmark that is market based is the portfolios that track the consensus asset allocation of the tar-
S&P Target Date Index Series, which is constructed through get date industry in five-year increments for investors retiring
an annual survey of the holdings of target date funds in the in 2010 through 2050 (see Figure 4).
industry. The index series provides a fixed perspective of the The MGI is based on an equally weighted statistical esti-
TDF industry’s asset allocation based on S&P’s chosen asset mate of the asset allocation glide path of each TDF manager
class index benchmarks. with at least $100 million in assets under management (AUM)
Another approach to creating a market index is to analyze and at least 24 months of returns history. MGI is constructed
the behavior of the actual investments. One of the fundamen- using a set of asset class indexes that provide coverage of the
tal assumptions of modern financial asset pricing theory is general investable risk exposure of the TDF industry.
that the expected returns of investment funds are driven by The asset allocation glide path developed by any TDF man-
how the investments behave relative to systematic risk factors ager is based on two primary sets of assumptions: (1) a set of
and not by what they hold. The new MarketGlide Target Date capital market assumptions; and (2) the profile of a representa-
Index Series is the first behavior-based target date indexing tive investor’s savings and retirement requirements. The specific
methodology, and tracks the average performance of target choices within these two sets of assumptions provide significant
date managers more closely than any other index. opportunity for TDF investment performance disparities. As a
Figure 4 result, TDFs can have significantly different asset class portfolios
with respect to target date. A particular TDF manager will have
MarketGlide Asset Allocation Glide Path superior returns to peers only to the extent that the random
100% realization of financial markets returns most closely align with
90% the manager’s particular allocation strategy and security selec-
80%
70%
tion. MarketGlide estimates the custom asset allocation glide
60% path of each TDF family using a new statistical technique that
50% calibrates the systematic risk factors exposure by target date.
40%
30%
The MarketGlide index series reflects the collective methodol-
20% ogy assumptions of the major public TDF families, and results
10% in asset allocations that have robust performance in the face of
0%
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 extreme financial market co-movements, in part because they
Years To Maturity avoid the idiosyncrasies or timing errors that are associated
■ Cash ■ TIPS ■ US Bonds ■ High Yield ■ REIT ■ Emerg Eq ■ Int Dev Eq with individual managers.
■ US Small Cap ■ US Large Value ■ US Large Growth
Figure 5 shows how the out-of-sample monthly performance
Sources: Business Logic; Morningstar of MGI Series portfolios closely tracks the average returns of
48 March/April 2010
the TDF managers. The tracking error is asymmetrical in up and Figure 5
down markets. MGI results include a 25-basis-point manage- Average Monthly Tracking Error Of MarketGlide
ment fee to put it on similar footing as a low-cost index fund. Index Vs. TDF Managers
Figure 6 shows the annual and cumulative performance of
the MarketGlide 2010 and 2040 indexes compared with the 2005-09 Target Date Funds
performance mean and range of the industry from 2005 through MGI
2010 2020 2030 2040
2009. MGI achieves its stated goal of closely tracking the indus- TDF Manager
try’s average annual returns performance. MGI outperforms the MGI Avg 0.08% 0.06% 0.04% 0.03%
average manager’s cumulative return over the five-year period Tracking Error
due to the asymmetrical tracking error in down markets.
Up Market -0.13% -0.10% -0.11% -0.14%
Months Error
Methodology Behind The MGI
Down Market 0.50% 0.40% 0.38% 0.39%
Months Error
Glide Path Style Analysis
MGI relies on a new technique—glide path style analysis Sources: Business Logic; Morningstar
(GPSA)—that optimizes an asset allocation glide path and
thereby recovers the systematic risk behavior of a TDF family. TDFs. RBSA assumes that the style of a manager is constant
The technique assumes TDFs are long-term investments with through time and cannot be used for analysis of investments
a stable asset allocation glide path policy that is consistent such as TDFs, which change their asset allocation over time.
across different dated funds of a given family. Generally, TDFs It is a common industry practice to use a “rolling window”
are fully invested, do not employ leverage and are likely to hold RBSA to check for shift in investment style over time. For
diversified investments reflective of broad asset class exposure example, Figure 7 depicts 18-month rolling windows used
of equities and fixed income, and the asset allocation changes to analyze the historical behavior of the TDF 2010 and 2040
slowly over time as the TDF gets closer to the target date. fund members for a family. As expected, the funds changed
GPSA extends returns-based style analysis (RBSA) to cover their asset allocation over time, but there is also a significant
Figure 6
MarketGlide 2010 Index versus TDF Industry (a) MarketGlide 2010 Index versus TDF Industry (b)
40% 40%
30% 30%
Cumulative Return
20% 20%
Annual Return
10%
10%
0%
0%
-10%
-10%
-20%
-30% -20%
-40% -30%
Year Year
-50% -40%
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2009 2008-2009 2007-2009 2006-2009 2005-2009
Max 31.5% -10.8% 9.5% 14.4% 6.3% Max 31.5% 5.6% 13.5% 23.3% 25.0%
Min 12.8% -41.2% 2.9% 3.3% 1.4% Min 12.8% -27.2% -22.0% 1.1% 6.7%
Mean 22.7% -23.8% 6.2% 9.5% 4.5% Mean 22.7% -6.7% -1.0% 9.6% 14.9%
MarketGlide 21.5% -19.0% 6.5% 10.2% 4.8% MarketGlide 21.5% -1.6% 4.8% 15.5% 21.1%
MarketGlide 2040 Index versus TDF Industry (c) MarketGlide 2040 Index versus TDF Industry (d)
50% 50%
40% 40%
30%
Cumulative Return
30%
Annual Return
20%
10% 20%
0% 10%
-10% 0%
-20%
-10%
-30%
-40% -20%
Year Year
-50% -30%
2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2009 2008-2009 2007-2009 2006-2009 2005-2009
Max 40.6% -31.2% 11.0% 18.3% 9.1% Max 40.6% -11.2% -5.4% 6.2% 14.2%
Min 26.1% -41.3% 1.8% 4.7% 2.9% Min 26.1% -22.4% -17.8% -6.3% 1.8%
Mean 31.8% -37.4% 6.9% 14.4% 7.1% Mean 31.8% -17.7% -11.9% 0.2% 7.3%
MarketGlide 32.1% -35.4% 7.4% 15.3% 7.0% MarketGlide 32.1% -14.6% -8.3% 5.7% 13.1%
Rolling Window Style Analysis Of TDF Family A 2010 And 2040 Funds
100% 100%
90% 90%
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2010 fund 2040 fund
■ Cash ■ TIPS ■ US Bonds ■ High Yield ■ REITS ■ Emerg Eq ■ Int Dev Eq ■ US Small Growth ■ US Large Value ■ US Large Growth
amount of noise. As can be seen from the rolling style analy- has five parameters that dictate its shape: a starting value
sis results of TDF Family A 2040 fund, the fund had above a asymptotic allocation, ending asymptotic allocation, time of
90 percent allocation to stocks in 2002 and that allocation maximum rate of allocation change, the maximum growth rate
seemed to shift slightly toward bonds after 2003, while the of allocation/year, the last parameter that dictates asymmetry
TDF 2010 fund shows a much more significant and growing of the curve. When GPSA performs the function fit, it assumes
exposure to bonds. the TDF manager followed a consistent asset allocation glide
Each window RBSA provides an estimate of the asset alloca- path across all funds within the same TDF family. As can be
tion around the midpoint time of the window used. This insight seen in Figure 9, different values of the S-curve parameters can
is crucial to the GPSA method. GPSA transforms these rolling generate shapes of equity glide paths that span a wide range
window results into a common time-based measure by subtract- of plausible investment policy choices of TDF managers.
ing the midpoint time period of the RBSA window from the tar- The curve-fitting problem for the entire asset allocation
get date of the fund. The center of each time window provides glide path is solved using a hierarchical nonlinear least-
an estimate of the fund manager allocation based on the length squares fit algorithm that first fits the equity/fixed split of
of time from target date. This common time unit allows GPSA to the manager, and then traverses down to fit more granular
consolidate all the rolling windows style analysis (RWSA) results asset classes. The last aggregate cumulative portfolio is
for all the funds from a particular target date family. The aggre- assumed to sum to a 100 percent allocation at each point in
gate results for TDF Family A in Figure 8 provides new clarity to the glide path. The algorithm requires specification of the
the funds’ behavior. From this, it is apparent that a TDF family’s hierarchical tree structure of the grouping of the asset class
asset allocation style becomes more conservative as each fund benchmarks. Specifying this asset class hierarchy ensures
gets closer to its target date. that the GPSA algorithm partitions the analysis so that it
To address the RWSA measurement noise, the GPSA meth- first focuses on the macro view, and iteratively zooms in to
od performs a nonlinear least-squares fit of a multivariate func- fit the micro view. The resulting glide paths quickly become
tion to filter the noise in portfolio transitions over time. The stable at the equity/fixed level and are further refined by
“S-curve” function family is chosen because its shape naturally tuning the finer details with arrival of new returns data. The
fits the shape of an asset allocation glide path. This function entire process is embedded within a model simplification
algorithm to build the most statistically powerful model
Figure 8
with the fewest asset classes that explain the largest per-
Family A Asset Allocation Glide Path centage of returns variance of the TDF manager.
GPSA validation can be performed using results based on
100% leading TDF families that resemble actual industry reference
90%
80%
points. The estimated glide path is then used to create a
70% custom TDF benchmark for each target date fund of the fam-
60% ily. The performance of each fund can be measured against
50%
40%
this benchmark. The GPSA-based custom TDF benchmarks
30% account for more than 99.9 percent of the variance of the
20% idealized TDFs and fit the asset allocation portfolios to with-
10%
0%
in 0.1 percent. These adjusted R-squared statistics reflect
40.5 33.5 28.5 23.5 18.5 13.5 8.5 3.5 -1.5 -6.5 the average for each of the funds of a TDF family. The results
Years to Maturity validate that the GPSA algorithm can reverse-engineer glide
■ Cash ■ TIPS ■ US Bonds ■ High Yield ■ REITS ■ Emerg Eq paths of known TDF families and can be applied to the real
■ Int Dev Eq ■ US Small Cap ■ US Large Value ■ US Large Growth
world with confidence.
Sources: Business Logic; Morningstar The MGI selection criteria for TDF managers is that they
50 March/April 2010
Figure 9 managers who generally invest in well-diversified broad asset
S-Curve-Generated Sample Equity Allocation Glide Paths classes and have a stable asset allocation glide path policy. The
results also indicate that TDF managers with lower adjusted-
R-squared statistics violate some assumptions of our simple
1 five-asset-class GPSA analysis validation test. One major reason
0.9
is that the five-asset-class benchmarks set used for this basic
0.8
GPSA validation test did not span all the risk factors invested
0.7
0.6 in by the other half of the selected TDF managers.
0.5 In an effort to achieve higher adjusted R-squared statistic
0.4 results, the GPSA analysis was performed again with a set of
Defensive
Conservative 0.3 10 asset class benchmarks (Appendix A) that better reflect
Moderate
Aggressive
0.2 the general investment risk taken within the TDF industry.
0.1 The worst adjusted R-squared result for the previously unex-
0
40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6
plained TDF manager shows significant improvements, from
Years To Maturity
92 percent to above 96 percent. The improved TDF manag-
ers require a more granular asset allocation glide path for
Source: Business Logic GPSA to explain these managers’ behavior. The improvement
of fit is especially important for managers with significant
are publicly traded, have over $100 million in AUM and have allocations into nontraditional asset classes such as emerging
24 months of publicly available returns history for institutional markets, REITs, TIPS and high yield.
share class investments. The GPSA process was first performed
with a simple set of five broad asset classes including U.S. Summary
large and small cap, international equities, U.S. bonds and The target date fund market has the potential to simplify
short-term T-bills. Of the selected TDF managers, four manag- investor behavior for a large segment of the retirement mar-
ers had average family adjusted R-squared statistics over 99 ket, but it has experienced significant growing pains with
percent, half of the managers had values above 98 percent and wide performance disparities that have been difficult to pre-
all had values above 92 percent. The model fit was validated dict due to the complexity of underlying building blocks. New
and revealed valuable information about the TDF industry. index approaches are required to offer better insight into the
About half of all the TDF families are nearly perfectly repli- target date market and thereby reduce target date methodol-
cated by our simple GPSA five-asset-class model; these are ogy risk for investment professionals and investors.
References
Black, F., Jensen, M.C., and Scholes, M. (1972). “The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Empirical Tests,” in “Studies in the Theory of Capital Markets.”
Bodson, L., Hübner, G., and Coën, A. (2008). “Dynamic Hedge Fund Style Analysis with Errors-in-Variables.”
Fama, E.F. and French, K.R. (1992). “The Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns.”
Jukic, D. and Scitovski, R. (2003). “Solution of the Least-Squares Problem for Logistic Function,” Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics.
Lucas, L. and Riepe, M.W. (1996). “The Role of Returns-Based Style Analysis: Understanding, Implementing, and Interpreting the Technique,” Working Paper, Ibbotson Associates.
Pizzinga, A., Vereda, L., Atherino, R. and Fernandes, C. (2008). “Semi-strong dynamic style analysis with time-varying selectivity measurement,” Applied Stochastic Models in
Business and Industry.
Roll, R. and Ross, S.A. (1984). “The Arbitrage Pricing Theory Approach to Strategic Portfolio Planning,” Financial Analysts Journal.
Sharpe, W.F. (1992). “Asset Allocation: Management Style and Performance Measurement,” Journal of Portfolio Management.
Swinkels, L.A.P. and van der Sluis, P.J. (2002). “Return-Based Style Analysis with Time-Varying Exposures.”
200
The Top 10 European ETFs Of 2009, By Loan Value
The ETFs that saw the highest 2009 average U.S. dollar
150 loan value were predominantly iShares funds. The iShares
100 FTSE 250 consistently saw the highest level of demand, fol-
lowed by the Lyxor Euro Stoxx 50 ETF.
50
In terms of lending revenue, the average lending rate for the
$0 top 10 ETFs in most cases exceeded the ETF management fee.
Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 In fact, the lending rate was also in excess of the rates charged
Source: Data Explorers Figure 5
Number of European ETFs Made Available to Borrow for the underlying basket of securities. Some of this premium
350
could be put down to the structural cost of creating ETFs to
lend, such as stamp tax for U.K. equities, but the rates do imply
300 that the market is willing to pay for the convenience of bor-
250 rowing a single security. Another explanation for the premium
could be that the securities lending market for European ETFs is
200
still far from mature. While the number and value of European
150 ETFs in securities lending is increasing, it is still far below the
100 levels seen in the U.S. market. In the U.S., the lendable value
for the ETF market is in excess of $55.8 billion, with a value
50 on loan of $23 billion. This depth of supply results in much
$0 lower lending rates for U.S. ETFs. The average rate is close to,
Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec
’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’08 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 ’09 or marginally below, the management fee of the ETF. However,
the higher level of demand means the absolute value of revenue
Source: Data Explorers
from lending ETFs is higher than in Europe.
by lenders such as custodian banks saw a marked decrease
in the autumn of 2008 (Figure 3). Part of this decline can be 2010: What Does The Future Hold?
attributed to the drop in global equity values, and part is due While the data points to a strong lending market for
to the fact that some market participants suspended lending European ETFs in 2010, there are still areas of weakness.
during the extreme market conditions of 2008 and 2009. On the demand side, while swaps have a significant element of
While the value of the supply ended 2009 below the highs counterparty risk, they do not have the same recall risk as borrow-
52 March/April 2010
ing an ETF, and in some case, are cheaper than borrowing. If the tively higher cost should diminish if more institutions make
memory of Lehman Brothers fades over the course of the year, the their ETFs available to borrow. The increase in supply could
demand that European ETFs saw in 2009 may begin to fade. come about as more ETF owners realize that they can offset
An increase in the supply of European ETFs could, in turn, the ETF management fee by putting them into a securities
lead to an increase in demand. As additional supply comes lending program. This lending activity can help offset the
into the market, the advantages that swaps have over short- inherent tracking risk, which may make owning European
ing ETFs will continue to diminish. The risk of recall and rela- ETFs more attractive.
Endnotes
1 ETF Landscape Industry Preview Year End 2009, BlackRock Global ETF Research & Implementation Strategy Team
2 Source: Data Explorers
3 Ibid.
Endnote
1. Source: NYSE Euronext research databases
54 March/April 2010
acceptable formal governance ratings highly questionable. should also be possible. The fact that a case involving fund
To illustrate the scope for differences of opinion along the fees has reached the Supreme Court suggests far-from-uni-
“fee” dimension, Wallison and Litan15 present a strong argu- versal agreement on fund fee issues.
ment that requiring fund directors to approve a fund’s invest- If a fund service insists on taking a stance on fund gov-
ment management fee discourages price competition among ernance, it should consider any specific governance issue it
investment managers. The stickiness of fees in the face of deems relevant to a fund and either accept the governance
heavy emphasis on expense ratios in fund comparisons sug- and ethical standards at a fund company and not discuss
gests that Wallison and Litan have a point. It would certainly them or reject them entirely with a full explanation of the
not harm investors in existing funds to permit managers of reasons behind the rejection. Either a question or problem
new funds to experiment with a fund’s fee structure. As long is serious enough to encourage investors to avoid the fund
as disclosure of the possible range of fees is adequate from or it is not important enough or definitive enough to affect
the first day the fund is offered to investors, changes in fees an investment decision. Beyond a statement of the facts of
by these new funds and adoption of fee structures that are a situation, complexity in fund governance analysis and rela-
different from the fulcrum performance fees now required tive governance ratings will rarely be either fair or useful.
Endnotes
1 The early status of the Investment Company Institute XBRL Initiative is summarized in McMillan, Karrie, “Remarks at XBRL International Conference,” Vancouver, British Columbia,
Dec. 4, 2007. The timing of further XBRL implementation is difficult to forecast but the ICI seems to be the fund industry’s organization of choice for this effort. You can see where
the SEC stands on XBRL by starting at http://www.sec.gov/spotlight/xbrl.shtml. There is even a rudimentary mutual fund viewer that lets you create a simple fund comparison report
for two or three funds. A visit will impress you with both the potential for improved fund data and with how far the process has to go.
2 See Cox, Christopher, “Disclosure from the User’s Perspective,” CFA Institute Conference Proceedings Quarterly, September 2008, pp. 10-15.
3 In fairness to iShares, the cost of licensing a wide range of indexes just for this application would probably be prohibitive.
4 Chua, David B., Mark Kritzman and Sébastien Page, “The Myth of Diversification,” The Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 2009, vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 26-35 provides a useful look
at the asymmetry of diversification.
5 Cremers, Martijn and Antti Petajisto, “How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure that Predicts Performance,” Review of Financial Studies, September 2009, vol. 22,
No. 9, pp. 3329-3365.
6 In calculating active share, it is often useful to make the calculation relative to a number of benchmark indexes. While the S&P 500 and the Russell 1000 are highly correlated, a closet
indexer using the Russell 1000 as a fund template might have a greater active share measured against the S&P 500 than measured against the (more relevant for this fund) Russell 1000.
Cremers and Petajisto measured active share against a variety of major indexes and assumed the benchmark was the index that showed the lowest active share, (p. 3340).
7 Cremers and Petajisto, p. 3332.
8 Ibid, pp. 3354-3355.
9 Ibid, pp. 3350-3353.
10 Wright, Christopher, “Cleaning Closets,” CFA Magazine, September/October 2008, vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 20-21.
11 Gastineau, Gary L., Andrew R. Olma and Robert G. Zielinski, “Equity Portfolio Management,” Chapter 7, in Maginn, John L., Donald L. Tuttle, Jerald E. Pinto and Dennis W.
McLeavey, “Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process,” pp. 407-476. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, New Jersey, 2007.
12 Ertugrul, Mine and Shantaram Hegde, “Corporate Governance Ratings and Firm Performance,” Financial Management, vol. 38, No. 1, Spring 2009, pp. 139-160.
13 Wellman, Jay and Jian Zhou, “Corporate Governance and Mutual Fund Performance: A First Look at the Morningstar Stewardship Grades,” Unpublished Working Paper, March
18, 2008.
14 Haslem, John A., “Mutual Funds,” Wiley, 2010, p. 312.
15 Wallison, Peter J. and Robert E. Litan, “Competitive Equity: A Better Way to Organize Mutual Funds,” The AEI Press, Washington, D.C., 2007.
Endnotes
1 Source: DB Index Research, Weekly ETF reports—Europe, January 21, 2010
References
BlackRock Advisors, ETF Landscape, Industry Preview, Year End 2009
Bloomberg
DB Index Research, Weekly ETF reports—Europe, January 21, 2010
56 March/April 2010
firm calls the global “SMID” segment. els, but remained more than 92 percent the Real Return series adds in TIPS, com-
The new index covers the middle below 2007 levels. Similarly, information modities and real estate securities.
chunk of the market and then a little technology saw a boost of 121 percent in
more—from the upper ranks of the the quarter, snagging a 30 percent slice S&P And BGCantor
small-cap segment to the bottom ech- of all buybacks in the period. Announce Treasury Indexes
elons of the large-cap segment. The By contrast, energy sector buybacks In December, S&P said it had entered
premise of the index seems to be dropped 15 percent quarter-over-quarter. into an agreement with market data
that investment managers recognize provider BGCantor Market Data LP to
that the largest companies don’t have DJI Adds New Index collaborate with each other in the cre-
a lot of significant growth ahead of To Target Date Family ation of a new family of U.S. Treasury
them, while the very smallest compa- In January, Dow Jones Indexes updated indexes. BGCantor is a subsidiary of
nies often have significant risk factors, its Dow Jones Target Date and Real Return BGC Partners and specializes in fixed-
especially in emerging markets; SMID index series with the addition of the Dow income and derivatives data.
might be the happy medium. Jones U.S. Target Date 2050, Dow Jones The indexes will be calculated by S&P
The SMID index covers nearly 4,000 Global Target Date 2050 and Dow Jones based on data provided by BGCantor;
stocks ranging in size from $370 mil- Real Return 2050 indexes. At the same S&P’s announcement said that the index-
lion to $5.3 billion, and can be broken time, DJI phased out the Dow Jones Target es would launch in the first quarter of
down into multiple subindexes cover- 2005, Dow Jones U.S. Target 2005 and 2010. According to S&P, the benchmarks
ing different styles or regions, such as Dow Jones Real Return 2005 indexes. were created with custom requirements,
emerging markets. DJI’s target date indexes cover target liability-driven investing and portfolio-
years set at five-year intervals within a building strategies in mind.
S&P 500 Buybacks Jump In 3Q 40-year span, with indexes retired five The initial launch will include 11
Standard & Poor’s said in December that years after they have reached their tar- indexes:
third-quarter stock buybacks for the S&P get date. The multi-asset indexes gener- • S&P/BGCantor 0-3 Month U.S.
500 were up 44 percent from Q2, when ally shift more weight into fixed income Treasury Bill Index
they hit the lowest level ever recorded and cash, thereby reducing risk levels, as • S&P/BGCantor 3-6 Month U.S.
since S&P started keeping record in 1998. they move along their respective glide Treasury Bill Index
Third-quarter buybacks reached paths. The U.S. and Global index families • S&P/BGCantor 6-9 Month U.S.
$34.8 billion, up from $24.2 billion in track combinations of stocks, bonds and Treasury Bill Index
Q2. By comparison, third-quarter totals cash, while the global family includes • S&P/BGCantor 9-12 Month U.S.
remained more than 61 percent below an international component. Meanwhile, Treasury Bill Index
the results seen in the third quarter of
2008, and nearly 80 percent lower than
levels seen in the period two years ago.
Howard Silverblatt, senior index ana-
In January, Dow
lyst at S&P Indices, noted in a press release Pull Quote
Jones Indexes Pull Quote Pull Quote
updated
that companies cautiously increased buy- its DowPull Quote
Jones Pull Quote Pull Quote
Target
backs as the market recovery continued,
while keeping an eye on expenditures. PullReal
Date and Quote Pull Quote Pull Quote
Return
Silverblatt projected that stock buybacks
could jump another 10 percent in the
Index series.
next quarter, but going into 2010, overall
buybacks should remain well below peak
2007 levels, as these kinds of expendi-
tures are “highly correlated to the recov-
ering economy,” he said.
From a sector standpoint, financial
sector buybacks jumped 80 percent in
the third quarter from second-quarter lev-
58 March/April 2010
those markets. To mitigate those con- (Nasdaq: VCIT)
cerns, ETF Securities placed limits on • Vanguard Long-Term Corporate
how large the funds could grow: PPLT, Bond Index Fund (Nasdaq: VCLT)
for example, is limited to just 7 percent • Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities
of net platinum demand each year. Index Fund (Nasdaq: VMBS)
Shortly after its launch, that trans- The ETFs each represent a separate
lated into $750 million in assets, while share class of a traditional index mutual
PALL (which has similar limitations) had fund. Each ETF charges an expense
an asset cap of around $500 million. ratio of 15 basis points.
Should the two funds hit their limits,
they would likely trade to a premium BGI Launches Its First Active ETF
above net asset value while regula- In mid-November, iShares launched
tors consider whether to allow them the iShares Diversified Alternatives Trust
to expand. The two funds charge 0.60 (NYSE Arca: ALT), its first actively man-
percent in annual expenses. aged ETF and one of the first managed
futures products to hit the market.
Old Mutual Debuts ALT’s portfolio comprises exchange-
Fee-Free ETF Teaser traded futures contracts on everything
Old Mutual followed Charles Schwab from commodities, currencies and inter-
into the ETF market in early December est rates to stock and bond indexes, as
with the launch of the GlobalShares FTSE well as foreign currency forward con-
Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE Arca: GSR). tracts. The fund’s overall investment
The fund debuted with an expense strategy looks at relative value; it capital- tary receipts of companies with market
ratio of zero. However, as of Jan. 31, izes on the spread between assets and caps of at least $150 million. Additionally,
2010, GSR’s price tag was set to rise to 39 asset categories that deviate from the each company needs to generate at least
basis points. The firm also said the price norm. To achieve this—and in an effort 50 percent of its revenues from gold
tag could go up earlier if the assets hit $1 to minimize volatility—it takes both long and/or silver mining to be included in
billion before that date. (They didn’t.) and short positions in correlated assets. the index. The index is heavily weighted
GSR tracks the FTSE Emerging Index, Ultimately, ALT will use a combina- toward small-cap companies.
which covers mid- and large-cap stocks tion of strategies to capitalize on various GDXJ comes with a net expense ratio
in 22 emerging markets. spread opportunities, including techni- of 60 basis points.
Old Mutual, an established player in cal and fundamental strategies as well as
the mutual fund market, has another yield and futures curve arbitrage. Claymore Liquidates Four ETFs
four ETFs—all with an international Its portfolio targets an annualized Claymore Securities liquidated four
flavor—currently in registration. return volatility of 6 to 8 percent. “lightly followed” ETFs at the end of 2009:
ALT charges an annual expense ratio • Claymore/Morning-star Manufac-
Vanguard Expands of 0.95 percent. turing Super Sector Index ETF
Fixed-Income Offerings (NYSE Arca: MZG)
In late November, Vanguard launched New Van Eck ETF • Claymore/Morningstar
seven new bond ETFs, nearly doubling Tracks Junior Gold Miners Information Super Sector Index
its offerings in the ETF bond space, The Market Vectors Junior Gold ETF (NYSE Arca: MZN)
an area that saw significant inflows Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: GDXJ) debuted • Claymore/Morningstar Services
throughout 2009. in November, offering targeted access Super Sector Index ETF (NYSE
The funds include the following: to a range of small- to mid-cap gold- Arca: MZO)
• Vanguard Short-Term Government mining and -producing companies for • Claymore U.S.-1-The Capital Market
Bond Index Fund (Nasdaq: VGSH) the first time in an ETF. Index ETF (NYSE Arca: UEM)
• Vanguard Intermediate-Term Van Eck Global, the issuer, is also the All together, they represented less
Government Bond Index Fund creator of the large-cap-focused Market than 0.7 percent of the company’s
(Nasdaq: VGIT) Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE Arca: roughly $2.5 billion in ETF assets at the
• Vanguard Long-Term Government GDX), which launched in 2006 and cur- time of the announcement.
Bond Index Fund (Nasdaq: VGLT) rently has some $5.6 billion in assets. While the company has never been
• Vanguard Short-Term Corporate GDXJ tracks the Market Vectors Junior hesitant about closing under-perform-
Bond Index Fund (Nasdaq: VCSH) Gold Miners Index, a rules-based, modi- ing funds, these are the first to go
• Vanguard Intermediate-Term fied market-cap-weighted, float-adjusted following Guggenheim Partners’ acqui-
Corporate Bond Index Fund index comprising securities and deposi- sition of Claymore Group mid-October.
60 March/April 2010
products quickly attracted more than KNOW YOUR OPTIONS BACK TO THE FUTURES
$1 billion in assets. CBOE 2009 Volumes CME Group ADV Down In 2009
The two Xetra-listed ETNs carry an Over 1 Billion CME Group, the world’s largest deriva-
annual management fee of 0.89 percent. The Chicago Board Options tives exchange, saw volumes rise 13 per-
Exchange’s total 2009 volume was down cent year-over-year in December 2009,
Watson Wyatt Questions 5 percent from 2008 to 1.13 billion con- but the ADV for 2009 overall fell to 10.3
ETF Attractiveness tracts, but last year was nevertheless million, down 20 percent from 2008.
European consultancy firm Watson the second consecutive year for which In particular, the ADV for equity
Wyatt has cast doubt on the appeal the exchange’s total contracts traded index contracts as a group was down
of exchange-traded funds, calling them exceeded 1 billion. Average daily vol- 20 percent to 2.9 million. Interestingly,
an “unattractive long-term investment ume was 4.5 million contracts, down in 2008, equity index contracts rep-
option for most institutional investors.” from 4.7 million in 2008. resented roughly 28 percent of the
According to the consultant, while Equity options had a great year, with exchange’s total ADV, and that percent-
ETFs have opened up a world of poten- volumes up 5 percent; however, index age held steady in 2009.
tially interesting market exposures, and ETF options were the chief drags
they “generally have higher fees than on the exchange’s total volume. Index FROM THE EXCHANGES
many institutional index products; may options saw their ADV and total vol- Nasdaq Rolls Out
have tax implications that require spe- umes decline 14 percent to 884,000 and Leveraged Nasdaq-100
cialist advice; and often contain coun- 223 million, respectively; meanwhile, In November, Nasdaq OMX Group, Inc.
terparty risks which investors may not ETF options volumes fell 16 percent to introduced the Nasdaq-100 Leveraged
be compensated for.” an ADV of just over 1 million and a total Index. The new index magnifies the
The criticism of unrewarded counter- 2009 volume of 277 million. daily returns of the widely followed
party exposures within ETFs is not new. The most actively traded of the ETF Nasdaq-100 index by 200 percent, but
A year ago at a conference at the London and index options were those on the also incorporates the financing costs
Stock Exchange, Chris Sutton, senior S&P 500 Index (SPX), Standard & Poor’s associated with achieving such exposure
consultant at Watson Wyatt, described Depositary Receipts (SPY), PowerShares in a portfolio into its returns.
securities lending as “picking up pennies QQQ Trust (QQQQ), CBOE Volatility The index could prove particularly
in front of a steamroller.” Sutton was Index (VIX) and iShares Russell 2000 useful to investors in the ProShares
chief executive of iShares Europe and a Index Fund (IWM). Ultra QQQ (NYSE Arca: QLD), which
director of parent company BGI before offers 200 percent leveraged exposure
joining the consultancy firm in 2007. CBOE Plans S&P 500 to the Nasdaq-100.
However, Watson Wyatt’s assertion Dividend Index Options
that “most investment strategies can also The CBOE announced in December ON THE MOVE
be implemented more cheaply and effi- that the SEC had cleared it to launch Management Shake-Up At Stoxx
ciently using index funds, index futures options on the S&P 500 Dividend Index European index provider Stoxx has
or swaps,” calls ETFs’ attractiveness into (DVS), though no listing date was given announced changes in its senior man-
question at a more fundamental level. at the time. agement.
Furthermore, the consultant argues The underlying index tracks the accu- Dr. Hartmut Graf, previously head
that most (non-ETF) passive funds have mulated ex-dividend amounts of the of the index business at the German
been structured with clearly defined S&P 500’s component securities during stock exchange, Deutsche Boerse, joins
tax positions for institutional investors, a quarterly accrual period. The options Stoxx as chief executive officer, replac-
whereas the treatment of ETFs is much contracts will be useful for investors ing Ricardo Manrique, who is leaving
more variable, which typically neces- who want to hedge the differences the company. Patrick Valovic, who was
sitates tax advice. between expected and actual ex-divi- previously director of business opera-
“Where the ETF industry has dend amounts, the CBOE said. Also, the tions at Stoxx, becomes CFO.
engaged in product proliferation, we dividend index’s calculation methodol- In November 2009, Deutsche Boerse
would rather press for genuine inno- ogy is very similar to that of the S&P 500 and SIX Swiss Exchange announced the
vation in the investment content of (same components, divisor, shares out- acquisition of Dow Jones’ one-third share
index products. If investors are look- standing, and weighting methodology), in the index provider, with Deutsche
ing for more efficient market expo- so it can easily be used in trading strate- Boerse acquiring a controlling stake.
sures, their first step should be to gies involving other S&P 500 options. A new board of directors has also
review the indices underlying their The European-style contract is the been appointed, with two members
existing investments with a view to first of its kind to be listed in the joining from the SIX group, one from
seeing if there are better alterna- U.S., according to the CBOE, which has Deutsche Boerse and one from Swiss
tives,” said Sutton. exclusive listing rights on the index. law firm Lenz & Staehelin.
62 March/April 2010
Index Funds U.S. Style Overview XXXX –XXXX, 2010
Morningstar
Largest U.S. Index Mutual Funds Sorted By Total Net Assets In $US Millions March/April 2010
Large Cap
US Value 6.66 17.95 17.95 –9.41 –0.12 3.58
US Core 10.32 25.96 25.96 –3.54 1.79 2.21 24.76 11.38 21.52 44.37
US Growth 14.61 43.00 43.00 –2.25 1.20 –6.26
Mid Cap
Large Value 5.12 11.38 11.38 –10.82 –0.94 1.77
Large Core 9.59 21.52 21.52 –3.27 1.65 0.48 39.03 36.05 38.94 42.05
Large Growth 15.19 44.37 44.37 –1.94 0.60 –8.19
Small Cap
Mid Value 10.27 36.05 36.05 –6.26 1.76 8.06
Mid Core 12.36 38.94 38.94 –4.60 1.84 6.78 37.75 40.28 39.86 32.98
Mid Growth 14.58 42.05 42.05 –2.96 3.09 –1.21
Small Value 12.26 40.28 40.28 –4.14 2.13 10.22 –8.00 –4.00 0.00 +4.00 +8.00
Small Core 11.80 39.86 39.86 –5.48 1.69 8.79
Small Growth 9.44 32.98 32.98 –3.89 0.65 –1.44
Sector Index YTD Return % Industry Leaders & Laggards YTD Return % Biggest Influence on Style Index Performance
YTD Constituent
Hardware 65.01 Broadcasting - Radio 400.00 Return % Weight %
Best Performing Index
Software 52.65 Long Distance Carriers 348.55 Large Growth 44.37
Media 43.27 Auto Manufacturers - Major 336.68 Apple Inc. 146.90 4.14
Microsoft Corp. 60.50 8.39
Business Services 34.08 Copper 204.82
Google Inc. Cl A 101.52 4.00
Industrial 33.79 Semiconductor - Memory 191.54 Cisco Systems Inc. 46.87 5.23
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 102.54 1.84
Consumer Services 30.24 Online Retail 155.22
Large Cap
Large Cap
Mid Cap
Mid Cap
Small Cap
Small Cap
–20 –10 0 +10 +20 –20 –10 0 +10 +20 –20 –10 0 +10 +20
64 March/April 2010
Dow JonesU.S.U.S.
Exchange-Traded
Dow Jones Industry
Industry Review Review
Funds Corner
Performance
Index Name Weight 1-Month 3-Month 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year
Dow Jones U.S. Index 100.00% 2.65% 6.05% 28.79% -4.98% 1.06% -0.39%
Dow Jones U.S. Basic Materials Index 3.33% 2.42% 9.92% 65.51% 2.64% 5.95% 4.87%
Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Goods Index 10.07% 1.30% 6.07% 23.86% 0.32% 3.43% 5.05%
Dow Jones U.S. Consumer Services Index 11.51% 3.55% 6.83% 33.68% -4.96% -0.76% -2.26%
Dow Jones U.S. Financials Index 15.52% -0.05% -1.30% 17.11% -21.79% -9.47% -0.51%
Dow Jones U.S. Health Care Index 12.13% 2.61% 8.66% 21.71% 0.60% 3.34% 3.42%
Dow Jones U.S. Industrials Index 12.53% 2.41% 6.01% 26.07% -4.70% 0.65% -0.19%
Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas Index 10.88% -0.22% 4.63% 17.26% 0.52% 10.83% 10.41%
Dow Jones U.S. Technology Index 17.31% 6.47% 10.73% 64.48% 2.83% 4.34% -6.21%
Dow Jones U.S. Telecommunications Index 2.78% 5.10% 7.04% 9.85% -6.76% 1.27% -7.42%
Dow Jones U.S. Utilities Index 3.95% 5.69% 6.84% 12.58% -2.58% 5.28% 6.17%
Risk-Return
5%
Technology Basic Materials
0% Consumer Goods Health Care Oil & Gas
3-Year Annualized Return
Utilities
-5% Composite Consumer Services Industrials
Telecommunications
-10%
-15%
-20%
Financials
-25%
14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28% 30% 32% 34%
Technology 12.27%
60
Telecommunications -2.57%
Utilities -0.83% 40
Chart compares industry weights within the Dow Jones U.S. Index to industry weights within the Dow Jones U.S. = Dow Jones U.S. Index | Global ex-U.S. = Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index
Global ex-U.S. Index Commodities = Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index | REITs = Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index
Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index
© Dow Jones & Company, Inc. 2009. All rights reserved. "Dow Jones", "Dow Jones Indexes", "Dow Jones U.S. Index", "Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index" and "Dow Jones U.S. Industry Indexes" are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. "UBS" is a registered trademark of UBS AG. "Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index" is a service
mark of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and UBS. "Brookfield" is a service mark of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. or its affiliates. The "Dow Jones Brookfield Infrastructure Indexes" are published pursuant to an agreement between Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and Brookfield Asset Management. Investment products that may be based
on the indexes referencedare not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, and Dow Jones makes no representationregarding the advisability of investing in them. Inclusion of a company in these indexes does not in any way reflect an opinion of Dow Jones on the investment merits of such company. Index performance is for
illustrative purposes only and does not represent the performance of an investment product that may be based on the index. Index performance does not reflect management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index.
The Dow Jones U.S. Index, the Dow Jones Global ex-U.S. Index and the Dow Jones U.S. Industry Indexes were first published in February 2000. The Dow Jones Brookfield Infrastructure Index was first published in July 2008. To the extent this document includes information for the index for the period prior to its initial publication date,
such information is back-tested (i.e., calculations of how the index might have performed during that time period if the index had existed). Any comparisons, assertions and conclusions regarding the performance of the Index during the time period prior to launch will be based on back-testing. Back-tested information is purely hypothetical
and is provided solely for informational purposes. Back-tested performance does not represent actual performance and should not be interpreted as an indication of actual performance. Past performance is also not indicative of future results.
For more information, please visit the Dow Jones Indexes Web site at www.djindexes.com.
Source: Morningstar. Data as of December 31, 2009. Exp Ratio is expense ratio. 3-Mo is 3-month. 3-Yr and 5-Yr are 3-year and 5-year annualized returns, respectively.
Mkt Cap is geometric average market capitalization. P/E is price-to-earnings ratio. Std Dev is 3-year standard deviation. Yield is 12-month.
66 March/April 2010
Blanchett continued from page 37
Appendix II: Benchmark Indices continued
Russell
Large Growth Russell 1000 Growth
Large Blend Russell 1000
Large Value Russell 1000 Value
Mid-Cap Growth Russell Mid Cap Growth
Mid-Cap Blend Russell Mid Cap
Mid-Cap Value Russell Mid Cap Value
Small Growth Russell 2000 Growth
Small Blend Russell 2000
Small Value Russell 2000 Value
Works Cited
“2009 Investment Company Fact Book.” Investment Company Institute. http://www.icifactbook.org/.
Carhart, Mark M. 1997. “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance,” Journal of Finance, vol. 52: No. 1, 57-82.
Cremers, Martijn, Antti Petajisto, and Eric Zitzewitz. 2008. “Should Benchmark Indices Have Alpha? Revisiting Performance Evaluation.” Working paper version July 31, 2008.
Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French. 1993. “Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Bonds and Stocks,” Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 33: 3-53.
French, Kenneth R., http://mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/ken.french/data_library.html
Israelsen, Craig. 2007. “Variance Among Indexes.” Journal of Indexes, May/June: 26-29
References
Christopherson, J.A., D.R. Cariño and W.E. Ferson (2009). “Portfolio Performance Measurement and Benchmarking,” McGraw-Hill.
Gardner, G. and A. Sirohi (2009). “The Russell Target Date Performance Metric: Description of Methodology,” Russell Research, August.
Goodwin, T. (1998). “The Information Ratio,” Financial Analysts Journal. July/August, pp. 34-43.
Maxie, D. (2009). “Getting Personal: Target date funds find ways to cut costs.” Wall Street Journal, August 3.
Spaulding, D. and J.A. Tzitzouris, ed. (2009). “Classics in Investment Performance Measurement,” The Spaulding Group.
Endnotes
1Maxie (2009).
2For calculation specifications, see Gardner and Sirohi (2009).
3The total return of global equity as measured by the 67 percent/33 percent mix of the Russell 3000 and Russell Global ex-U.S. Indexes minus the return of the Barclays Capital U.S Aggregate
Bond Index.
Disclosures
Russell Investments is a Washington, USA Corporation, which operates through subsidiaries worldwide and is a subsidiary
of The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company.
One of the things we pride ourselves solely in companies whose stocks have
on at Index Publications is our crystal been unnecessarily punished. Key hold-
ball. By poring over obscure SEC filings, ings include Crocs, Vonage, Transmeta,
combing through patent and trademark and the recovered assets of Internet
cases and good old-fashioned shoe-leath- retailer Webvan.
er reporting, we think we’ve got a pretty SCAM: This actively managed stock-
good handle on where the indexing and picking fund from a major active mutual
ETF industry is headed. Here for the first fund manager will be the first to take
time is a selection of ETFs we’re particu- advantage of a special SEC “blinding”
larly looking forward to seeing. exemption. While the NAV of the fund
Fabulous investment As always, market conditions and SEC will be published, creation baskets will
opportunities await approval can delay the launches. be made entirely of precious metals.
ETF investors WEED: With medical marijuana now Redemptions will be made in cheese.
this year. legal in 14 states, it was only a matter of FAT: Cashing in on the continued high
time before the ETF industry cashed in levels of unemployment, demographic
on the trend. Based on the “High Times trends and the American obsession with
Righteous Buzz Index,” WEED will invest fast food, this ETF will invest solely in
in agribusiness companies, the hemp fast-food companies and manufacturers
futures market and fungible stockpiles. of insulin pumps.
CHTO: WEED’s physically backed sister SPAM: Following up on the success of
fund will consist entirely of high-calorie OOK, this ETF invests solely in compa-
snack foods. The fund’s assets, which will nies based in the Hawaiian Islands, and
be placed in a vault in Amsterdam, will be Hormel Foods Corp (with some inexpli-
audited biannually, or whenever WEED’s cable crossover into Russian Internet
custodians get the munchies. start-up firms)
SCUM: This “special situations” fund LOL: A new active fund managed by an
focuses on the assets of some of the expert group of Blackberry-armed 14-year-old
country’s most creative investors and girls, who seek to replicate trends hidden in
accountants, old and new. Not just focus- the catalog of Lady Gaga.
ing on cleanup operations in the after- BOO: Tracks the Scooby Doo Phantom
math of Madoff or the credit crisis, SCUM Index of amusement parks owners and
will track down the current “hot picks” hotel operators.
from such luminaries as Bernie Ebbers LENO: Invests solely in seven-month
and Charles Keating. call options on companies with second-
FLOP: A true value play, FLOP will invest place positions in their markets.
68 March/April 2010
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Inc. as of December 31, 2008. Based on 2008 industry average expense ratio of 1.19% and Vanguard average expense ratio of 0.20%.
©2010 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. Pat. No. 6,879,964 B2; 7,337,138. Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.
Sourcing Liquidity...At The Right Price SM
Operating on a full-disclosed agency basis, our role is to demystify the challenges of executing
trades within highly fragmented markets. By doing so, we are able to provide a vital link for
those seeking liquidity and best price execution with complete transparency.
Our team is comprised of product experts that understand market dynamics and the nuances of
transacting in all trading environments. We are relied upon for leveraging trading system
technologies and industry-wide relationships to efficiently and cost-effectively execute complex and
potentially market-impacting orders.
www.wallachbeth.com