Storm Rainfall Depth and Distribution

1 UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture
2 NaturalResourcesConservationService
3 Part630Hydrology
4 NationalEngineeringHandbook
5 Chapter4:StormRainfallDepthandDistribution
6
7 DRAFTSeptember2012
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NEH630.04DRAFT StormRainfallDepth September2012
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21 TheU.S.DepartmentofAgriculture(USDA)prohibitsdiscriminationinallitsprogramsand
22 activitiesonthebasisofrace,color,nationalorigin,age,disability,andwhereapplicable,
23 sex,maritalstatus,familialstatus,parentalstatus,religion,sexualorientation,genetic
24 information,politicalbeliefs,reprisal,orbecauseallorapartofanindividualsincomeis
25 derivedfromanypublicassistanceprogram.(Notallprohibitedbasesapplytoall
26 programs.)Personswithdisabilitieswhorequirealternativemeansforcommunicationof
27 programinformation(Braille,largeprint,audiotape,etc.)shouldcontactUSDAsTARGET
28 Centerat(202)7202600(voiceandTDD).Tofileacomplaintofdiscrimination,writeto
29 USDA,Director,OfficeofCivilRights,1400IndependenceAvenue,SW,Washington,DC
30 202509410,orcall(800)7953272(voice)or(202)7206382(TDD).USDAisanequal
31 opportunityproviderandemployer.
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33 Acknowledgments
34 Chapter4wasoriginallypreparedbyVictorMockus,formerhydraulicengineer,USDASoil
35 ConservationService,andpublishedin1964.Itwasreprintedwithminorrevisionsin1969
36 andwithmajorrevisionsin1993.
37
38 ThisversionwaspreparedbyWilliamH.Merkel,hydraulicengineer,NRCS,Beltsville,
39 Maryland,HelenFoxMoody,hydraulicengineer,NRCS,Beltsville,Maryland,andDonald
40 E.Woodward(retiredhydraulicengineer),undertheguidanceofClaudiaC.Hoeft,
41 NationalHydraulicEngineer,NRCS,Washington,DC.QuanD.Quan,hydraulicengineer,
42 NRCS,Beltsville,MarylandandDanMoore,hydraulicengineer,NRCS,Portland,Oregon
43 providedreviews.ThemanycommentsfromNRCSstaffinthestatesareappreciated
44
45 TheTechnicalPublicationsTeam,NRCS,FortWorth,Texas,preparedthefinaldocument.
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47 Contents:
48 630.0400Introduction...........................................................................................................................................1
49 630.0401Sourcesofdata......................................................................................................................................1
50 (a)Publisheddata................................................................................................................................................3
51 (1)NOAAandNWS.........................................................................................................................................3
52 (2)NWCC............................................................................................................................................................9
53 (b)Unpublisheddata..........................................................................................................................................9
54 (c)Useofpublisheddata...............................................................................................................................10
55 630.0402Rainfalloverawatershed.............................................................................................................10
56 (a)Methodsofestimatingaveragedepths............................................................................................11
57 (1)Useofonegage.......................................................................................................................................11
58 (2)Isohyetalmethod..................................................................................................................................15
59 (3)Thiessenmethod...................................................................................................................................20
60 (4)Othermethods........................................................................................................................................24
61 (b)Accuracy........................................................................................................................................................28
62 (c)Orographicinfluences..............................................................................................................................38
63 630.0403Temporaldistributionofrainfall...............................................................................................40
64 (a)Introduction.................................................................................................................................................40
65 (b)DevelopmentoftheTypeI,IA,II,andIIIrainfalldistributions.............................................41
66 (c)Developmentofarainfalldistributionforanhistoricalstorm..............................................45
67 (d)NOAAAtlas14Analyses..........................................................................................................................48
68 630.0404References...........................................................................................................................................50
69 Appendix4A.PrecipitationfrequencydataanddistributionforColumbus,Ohio..................61
70 Appendix4B.SmoothingvaluesfromNOAAAtlas14..........................................................................68
71 Background..........................................................................................................................................................68
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72 DataSmoothingTechnique...........................................................................................................................72
73 ConclusionandSummary..............................................................................................................................81
74 Appendix4C.Developmentof24hourrainfalldistributionfromNOAAAtlas145minute
75 through24hourvalues......................................................................................................................................83
76 Appendix4D.Determining10dayprecipitationforthestatesofCO,ID,MT,OR,WA,and
77 WY................................................................................................................................................................................87
78 Appendix4E.DeterminingadesignrainfalldistributionforaregionbasedonGISdata....97
79
80 ListofTables:
81 Table41.Tabulationofwatershedrainfallfromisohyetalmap,figure47............................19
82 Table42.Tabulationofisohyetalweightsfromfigure48.............................................................20
83 Table43.WatershedrainfalldepthbytheThiessenmethodappliedtofigure411..........22
84 Table44.Computationsforpercentagesofpointsoutsideoferrorlines................................34
85 Table45.Ratiosto24hourrainfallfortheTypeIIdistribution...................................................44
86 Table46.HourlyrainfalldataanddistributionatColumbusOhio,August30,2005..........46
87
88 Table4A1.PrecipitationfrequencyforColumbusOhio(NOAA,Hydro35,1977).Values
89 areinunitsofinches............................................................................................................................................61
90 Table4A2.PrecipitationfrequencyforColumbus,Ohio(NWS,TP40,1961).Valuesare
91 inunitsofinches....................................................................................................................................................62
92 Table4A3.Ratioofshorterdurationto24hourprecipitationforColumbus,Ohio(Hydro
93 35andTP40).........................................................................................................................................................62
94 Table4A4.ComparisonofratiosforColumbus,Ohio(Hydro35andTP40)andtheType
95 IIratioforalldurations......................................................................................................................................64
96 Table4A5.Ratioofshorterdurationto24hourprecipitationforColumbus,Ohio(based
97 onNOAAAtlas14data)......................................................................................................................................66
98 Table4A6.DifferencebetweenNOAAAtlas14andHydro35/TP40rainfallfor
99 Columbus,Ohio......................................................................................................................................................67
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101 Table4C1.Duration,precipitation,andratiovalues.........................................................................83
102 Table4C2.Cumulativeratiovalues...........................................................................................................84
103
104 Table4D1.Listofequationsfordetermining2year1hourprecipitationvalues..............89
105 Table4D2.ReturnperiodsandPrecipitationvalues.........................................................................96
106
107 Table4E1.MeanratiosforfourrainfalldistributionregionsNOAAAtlas14,OhioValley
108 andneighboringstates......................................................................................................................................102
109
110 ListofFigures:
111 Figure41.Errorscausedbyuseofcatchesatonegagewithinthewatershed(area=0.75
112 squaremiles)asestimatesofwatershedaveragerainfall..................................................................12
113 Figure42.Errorscausedbyuseofcatchesatonegageasestimatesofwatershedaverage
114 rainfallwhenthegageislocatedoutsideofthewatershed(area=0.75squaremiles)........13
115 Figure43.Errorscausedbyuseofcatchesatonegageonthewatershedboundaryas
116 estimatesofwatershedaveragerainfall,watershedareais5.45squaremiles.........................13
117 Figure44.Errorscausedbyuseofcatchesatonegageonthewatershedboundaryas
118 estimatesofwatershedaveragerainfallonanannualbasis,watershedareais5.45square
119 miles............................................................................................................................................................................14
120 Figure45.RaingagelocationsandamountsinasmallNebraskawatershed........................16
121 Figure46.Estimatetherainfallamountsfallingbetweenthegagelocations........................17
122 Figure47.Isohyetalmapdevelopedfromfigures45and46......................................................18
123 Figure48.Adenserraingagenetworkprovidingamoredetailedisohyetalmap...............19
124 Figure49.WatershedwiththreeraingagesanalysisbytheThiessenmethod.....................21
125 Figure410.Thiessenweightsmethodstep2........................................................................................22
126 Figure411.ThirdStepinthedeterminationofThiessenweights...............................................23
127 Figure412.AdenserThiessennetwork..................................................................................................23
128 Figure413.ThedigitizedwatershedboundaryforasmallwatershedinCoshocton
129 County,Ohio............................................................................................................................................................25
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130 Figure414.PointrainfallmeasurementsforasmallwatershedinCoshoctonCounty,Ohio
131 .......................................................................................................................................................................................26
132 Figure415.Theisohyetalmapbasedonthepointrainfallmeasurementsinfigure41427
133 Figure416..............................................................................................................................................................28
134 Figure417.Estimatingtheupperorpositiveincrementoferrorintransposedrainfall
135 amounts(modifiedfromHuffandNeill1957).........................................................................................29
136 Figure418.Stormrainfallatgages4.3milesapart............................................................................31
137 Figure419.StormrainfallgagesatDallasandFortWorth,Texas,about30milesapart..32
138 Figure420.Annualprecipitationat2gages4.3milesapart,ARSwatershedinWebster
139 County,Nebraska...................................................................................................................................................33
140 Figure421.Annualprecipitationat2gagesabout30milesapartatDallasandFort
141 Worth,Texas............................................................................................................................................................33
142 Figure422.Networkchartforestimatingtheerrorinwatershedaveragerainfallamounts
143 (modifiedfromMcGuiness1963)..................................................................................................................35
144 Figure423.Typicalraingagenetworks..................................................................................................36
145 Figure424.Orographicinfluencesonrainfall(Source:USGS1942)..........................................39
146 Figure425.PointsdenotinggagelocationsforraingagesinFigure424...............................40
147 Figure426.PlotoftimedistributionofTypesI,IA,II,andIII........................................................41
148 Figure427.MapofUnitedStateswithappropriaterainfalldistributions,asofAugust
149 2012............................................................................................................................................................................42
150 Figure428.PlotsofactualstormaccumulatedprecipitationandtheTypeIIdistribution
151 .......................................................................................................................................................................................47
152 Figure429.Theratiosof5minute/24hourthrough12hour/24hourratiosfor
153 differentdistributionsusingdataforWilmingtonAirport,NC.........................................................49
154
155 Figure4A1.Plotofratiosofshorterdurationtothe24hourprecipitationforColumbus,
156 Ohio.............................................................................................................................................................................63
157 Figure4A2.NOAAAtlas14partialdurationprecipitationfrequencydataforColumbus
158 Ohio.............................................................................................................................................................................65
159
160 Figure4B1.NOAAAtlas14partialdurationdataforSt.George,Utah......................................69
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161 Figure4B2.HydrographbasedonSt.George,Utahrainfalldata.................................................70
162 Figure4B3.ZoomoftheHydrographbasedonSt.George,Utahrainfalldatabetween13.0
163 and15.0hours........................................................................................................................................................71
164 Figure4B4.Hydrographwithunsmootheddata.................................................................................72
165 Figure4B5.PlotforSunCity,CAnotsmoothbetween10minutesand6hours...................73
166 Figure4B6.Acurvewithirregularitiesat15minutesand3hoursforMercerCounty,NJ
167 .......................................................................................................................................................................................74
168 Figure4B7.AveryirregularplotofincrementalintensityforBethlehemUpperWorks,US
169 VirginIslands..........................................................................................................................................................75
170 Figure4B8.25yearincrementalintensityplotfororiginalandsmootheddataforMercer
171 County,NJ.,...............................................................................................................................................................76
172 Figure4B9.25yearincrementalintensityplotfororiginalandsmootheddatafor
173 Phoenix,AZ...............................................................................................................................................................77
175 BethlehemUpperWorks,USVirginIslands..............................................................................................78
176 Figure4B11.25yearhydrographplotsforMercerCo.,NJ.............................................................79
177 Figure4B12.25yearhydrographplotsforPhoenix,AZ.................................................................80
178 Figure4B13.25yearhydrographplotsforBethlehemUpperWorks,USVirginIslands.81
179 Figure4B14.Tableshowingintensityreversals..................................................................................82
180
181 Figure4D1.MapfromNOAAAtlas2showingregionsforNYear1hourrelationsin
182 elevenwesternstates..........................................................................................................................................88
183 Figure4D2.Relationforestimating2year10dayprecipitationfrom2year1and24
184 hourrainfallandlatitude...................................................................................................................................90
185 Figure4D3.Ratiosof100year10dayprecipitationto2Year10dayprecipitation.........91
186 Figure4D4.Durationinterpolationdiagram........................................................................................92
187 Figure4D5.Depthareacurves....................................................................................................................93
188 Figure4D6.Plotof10dayprecipitation.................................................................................................95
189
190 Figure4E1.NOAAAtlas14Volume2region,easternstates,rainfalldistributionregions
191 .....................................................................................................................................................................................100
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192 Figure4E2.NOAAAtlas14Volume2region,westernstates,rainfalldistributionregions
193 .....................................................................................................................................................................................101
194 Figure4E3.PlotofNOAAAtlas14RegionsAandDrainfalldistributionscomparedto
195 TypeIIandTypeIII............................................................................................................................................103
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199 630.0400Introduction
200 Thischapterappliestonaturallyoccurringraineventsandtheiranalyses.Thechapter
201 givesabriefaccountofthesources,variability,andpreparationofstormrainfalldataused
202 forestimatingstormrunoff(NaturalResourcesConservationService(NRCS),
203 NEH630.010,Estimationofdirectrunofffromstormrainfall,2004),forcalculating
204 hydrographs(NRCS,NEH630.016,Hydrographs,2007),andfordesigningfloodwater
205 retardingstructures(SoilConservationService(SCS),NEH4,chapter21,Design
206 Hydrographs,1972).Thechapteralsoappliestomonthlyandannualrainfall.Probable
207 maximumprecipitation(PMP)isdiscussedinSCS(NEH4,chapter21,Design
208 Hydrographs,1972),andTechnicalReleaseNo.60,EarthDamsandReservoirs(NRCS,
209 2005).
210
211 Theexamplesinthischapterillustrateanalysesusingcalculators,spreadsheets,and
212 simplecomputerprogramswherethestepstakentoreachananswerareeasily
213 demonstrated.ManyanalysesofthesekindscanbemadetodaywithGeographic
214 InformationSystems(GIS),butsomevaluesmaydifferfromthosecalculatedbyother
215 methods.Numericalaccuracyisafunctionofthenumberofsignificantdigitsandthe
216 algorithmsusedindataprocessing,sosomeslightdifferencesinnumbersmaybefoundif
217 theexamplesarecheckedbyothermeans.Discussionoftheoldermethodsisvaluablein
218 showinghowvariousfactorsaffectanswersinthesetypeofanalyses.
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220 630.0401Sourcesofdata
221 HydrometeorologicaldataisanimportantelementofNRCSplanning,design,and
222 operationofwaterrelatedstructuresandsystems.Thereareanumberofdatasources:
223 theNRCSNationalWaterandClimateCenter(NWCC),theUnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey
224 (USGS),theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)anditsNational
225 WeatherService(NWS)andtheNationalClimaticDataCenter(NCDC),RegionalClimate
226 Centers(RCCs),Stateclimatologists,theUSDAagenciesAgriculturalResearchService
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227 (ARS)andForestService(FS),andotherFederal,state,andlocalagencieswithplanning
228 responsibilitiesforwaterrelatedprojects,operationalresponsibilities,orboth.
229
230 Iftwodifferentdatasourcesexistforthesamearea,theNWSdatatakesprecedence.For
231 example,inthecaseoftheNewYorkandNewEnglandstates,thenortheastRegional
232 ClimateCenter(NRCC)completedaprecipitationfrequencyanalysis(2012)andisbeing
233 usedforNRCSprojects.WhenNOAAAtlas14iscompletedforNewYorkandtheNew
234 Englandstates,NOAAAtlas14willusedfromthatpoint.
235
236 TherainfalldataandrelatedstatisticalanalysesusedtodesignNRCSengineering
237 measuresaregenerallythoseamountsmeasuredandpublishedbytheNationalWeather
238 Service(NWS).ThechoiceofNWSdataisduetotheiravailabilityandconsistencyona
239 nationalbasis.NumerousotherorganizationsincludingUSDAAgriculturalResearch
240 Service(ARS)andNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrations(NOAA)Regional
241 ClimateCenterspublishdata,researchreports,andanalyses.Useofthesedataand
242 analysesmaybejustifiediftheyaremorerecentormoreapplicabletoaspecificproject
243 location.
244
245 Acomprehensiveaccountandbibliographyofraingagedesigns,installations,and
246 measurementresearchisgivenbyKurtyka(1953),NOAA(1989and1995),NWS(2010),
247 NOAA(2005)andothers.Vasquez(1998)givesanoverviewofgeneralweatherstation
248 operation.GagesusedintheNWSnetworkaredescribedbytheUnitedStates
249 DepartmentofCommerce(NOAA1989),Linsley,Kohler,andPaulhus(1982),Brakensiek,
250 etal.(1979),meteorologicaltextbookssuchasHoltan(2004),NOAAandNWSdocuments,
251 andsimilarpublications.
252
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253 (a)Publisheddata
254
255 (1)NOAAandNWS
256 DailyamountsofrainfallmeasuredatgagesintheofficialnetworksoperatedbytheNWS
257 areprocessedandpublishedbytheNationalClimaticDataCenter(NCDC)inAsheville,NC
258 inmonthlyissuesofClimatologicalDataforeachstate.TheNCDCwebsiteat
259 http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.htmlmaintainsstation,climate,andradardatafor
260 stationsthroughoutthecontinentalU.S.,Hawaii,Guam,PuertoRico,andtheVirgin
261 Islands.MoststateshaveaStateClimatologist,whocanbeanexcellentsourceof
262 informationforspecificstorms,localdatatrends,andclimaticdata.Thestate
263 climatologistsalsocoordinatetheobservationsmadebyweatherobserversthroughout
264 theStatesbeforetheyaresenttotheNationalClimaticDataCenter.
265
266 Thetimesofdailymeasurementsatstationsvaryasindicatedinthepublications.More
267 detailedobservationsofstormtotalsanddurationsareavailablefromtheHourly
268 PrecipitationData,alsopublishedbytheNCDCforeachstate.OtherFederalandState
269 agencies,anduniversities,publishrainfalldataatirregularintervals,ofteninaspecial
270 stormreportoraresearchpaper.
271
272 Climaticdata,suchasprecipitation,evaporation,andtemperatureareavailableforthe
273 continentalUnitedStatesandthePacificandCaribbeanIslands.Annual,monthly,and
274 dailydataareavailableinavarietyofformats.
275
276 TheHydrometeorologicalDesignStudiesCenter(HDSC)oftheNWShasanumberof
277 reportsthatsummarizemanyyearsofweatherobservationsoverthecountry.TheNWS
278 personneluserefinedstatisticalanderroranalysestomakethesepublicationsasreliable
279 aspossible.Inmanykindsofhydrologicwork,itisunnecessarytouseactualrainfalldata
280 becausepublishedanalysesofdataprovidetherequiredinformationinmoreusableform.
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281
282 ThefollowingpublishedrainfalldataanalysesweremadebytheNWS,manyin
283 cooperationwithNRCS:
284 Documentscoveringdurationsto60daysandstormreturnperiodsupto1,000
285 yearsandProbableMaximumPrecipitation(PMP)
286 NOAAAtlas14,PrecipitationFrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates.2004,rev2006.
287 Volume1Version4.0:SemiaridSouthwest
288 NOAAAtlas14,PrecipitationFrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates,2004,rev2006.
289 Volume2Version3.0:Delaware,DistrictofColumbia,Illinois,Indiana,Kentucky,
290 Maryland,NewJersey,NorthCarolina,Ohio,Pennsylvania,SouthCarolina,Tennessee,
291 Virginia,WestVirginia.
292 NOAAAtlas14PrecipitationFrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates,2006.Volume
293 3,Version4.0PuertoRicoandtheU.S.VirginIslands
294 NOAAAtlas14,PrecipitationFrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates,2009,rev.2011.
295 Volume4Version3:HawaiianIslands
296 NOAAAtlas14,PrecipitationFrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates,2009,rev.2011.
297 Volume5Version3.0:SelectedPacificIslands
298 NOAAAtlas14,PrecipitationFrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates,2011,Volume6
299 Version2.0California
300 NOAAAtlas14,PrecipitationFrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates2012,Volume7
301 Version1.0Alaska
302 "RainfallFrequencyAtlasoftheUnitedStates,"UnitedStatesWeatherBureau,
303 TechnicalPaperNo.40;115p,1961.ThisreferenceistobeusedforStateseastofthe
304 Rockies,exceptfordurationsof60minutesorlessorwhereNOAAAtlas14,Volumes1
305 through6providesupdatedcoverage.
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306 "Fiveto60MinutePrecipitationFrequencyfortheEasternandCentralUnitedStates,"
307 NOAATechnicalMemorandumNWSHYDRO35,36p,1977.
308 NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministrationAtlas2.PrecipitationAtlasofthe
309 WesternUnitedStates,1973:Vol.1,Montana,Vol.2,Wyoming,Vol.3,ColoradoVol.5,
310 IdahoVol.9,Washington,Vol.10,Oregon.
311 TwotoTenDayPrecipitationforReturnPeriodsof2to100yearsintheContiguous
312 UnitedStates,UnitedStatesWeatherBureau,TechnicalPaperNo.49,29p,1964.
313 Includesthe48contiguousstates.(UseSCSWestNationalTechnicalCenterTechnical
314 NoteHydrologyPO6,Revised1973,forStatescoveredbyNOAAAtlas2).
315 ShortdurationrainfallrelationsforthewesternUnitedStates,1986.Arkell,R.E.andF.
316 Richards.PreprintvolumeoftheConferenceonClimateandWaterManagement,AMS,
317 pp136141.
318 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationandRainfallFrequencyDataforAlaska.United
319 StatesWeatherBureau,TechnicalPaperNo.47,74p,1963.
320 GeneralizedEstimatesofProbableMaximumPrecipitationandRainfallFrequency
321 DataforPuertoRicoandVirginIslands,UnitedStatesWeatherBureau,Technical
322 Paper42,101p,1961.
323 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationinCalifornia,CalculationProcedure.UnitedStates
324 WeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.58,Report91p,1998.
326 WeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.58,PlatesIandII,2p,1998.
328 WeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.58,Shapefiles,1998.
329 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationinCalifornia,Report.UnitedStatesWeatherBureau
330 HydrometeorologicalReportNo.59,Report392p,1999.
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331 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationinCalifornia,Report.UnitedStatesWeatherBureau
332 HydrometeorologicalReportNo.59,PlatesIandII.2p,1998.
334 WeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.59,Shapefiles,1998.
335 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationintheHawaiianIslands,UnitedStatesWeather
336 BureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.39,108p,1963.
337 ProbableMaximumandTVAPrecipitationovertheTennesseeRiverBasinabove
338 Chattanooga.UnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.41,153
339 p,1965.
340 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationandSnowmeltCriteriaforRedRiveroftheNorth
341 abovePembina,andSourisRiveraboveMinot,NorthDakota.UnitedStatesWeather
343 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationEstimates,ColoradoRiverandGreatBasindrainages,
344 UnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.49,176p,reprint
345 1984.
346 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationEstimates,UnitedStatesEastofthe105thMeridian,
347 NOAAHydrometeorologyReportNo.51,100p,1978.
348 ApplicationofProbableMaximumPrecipitationEstimatesUnitedStatesEastofthe
349 105thMeridian,NOAAHydrometeorologyReportNo.52,182p,1982.
350 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationandSnowmeltCriteriaforSoutheastAlaska,NOAA
351 HydrometeorologicalReportNo.54,125p,1983.
352 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationEstimatesUnitedStatesBetweentheContinental
353 Divideandthe103rdMeridian,NOAAHydrometeorologicalReportNo.55A,262p,
354 1988.
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356 Divideandthe103rdMeridian,NOAAHydrometeorologicalReportNo.55A,PlatesI
357 III,9p,1988.
359 Divideandthe103rdMeridian,NOAAHydrometeorologicalReportNo.55A,PlatesIV
360 VI,9p,1988.
361 SeasonalVariationof10SquareMileProbableMaximumPrecipitationEstimates,
362 UnitedStatesEastofthe105thMeridian. UnitedStatesWeatherBureau
364 ProbableMaximumandTVAPrecipitationEstimatesWithArealDistributionfor
365 TennesseeRiverDrainagesLessThan3,000Mi2inArea. UnitedStatesWeatherBureau
367 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationPacificNorthwestStates.ColumbiaRiver(including
368 portionsofCanada),
369 SnakeRiverandPacificCoastalDrainages.U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,National
370 OceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,U.S.DepartmentofInterior,Bureauof
371 Reclamation,U.S.DepartmentofArmycorpsofEngineers,UnitedStatesWeather
372 BureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.57,Report349p,1994.
373 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationPacificNorthwestStates.ColumbiaRiver(including
374 portionsofCanada),
375 SnakeRiverandPacificCoastalDrainages.U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,National
376 OceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,U.S.DepartmentofInterior,Bureauof
377 Reclamation,U.S.DepartmentofArmycorpsofEngineers,UnitedStatesWeather
378 BureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.57,Maps4p,1994.
379 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationMaximumPrecipitationfortheUpperDeerfield
380 DrainageMassachusetts/Vermont.NOAATechnicalMemorandumNWSHydro39.48
381 p,1984.
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382 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationEstimatesfortheDrainageaboveDeweyDam,Johns
383 Creek,Kentucky.UnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.41,
384 46p,1985.
385 MeteorologicalConditionsfortheProbableMaximumFloodontheYukonRiverabove
386 Rampart,Alaska.UnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.42,
387 104p,1966.
388 MeteorologicalCriteriaforExtremeFloodsforFourBasinsintheTennesseeand
389 CumberlandRiverWatersheds.UnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorological
390 ReportNo.67,104p,1973.
391 MeteorologyofImportantRainstormsintheColoradoRiverandGreatBasin
392 Drainages.UnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.50,181p,
393 196l.
394 RelationshipbetweenStormandAntecedentPrecipitationoverKansas,Oklahoma,
395 andEasternColorado.NOAATechnicalMemorandumUnitedStatesWeatherBureau
397 AClimaticAnalysisofOrographicPrecipitationovertheBigHornMountains.NOAA
398 TechnicalMemorandumUnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReport
399 No.46,76p,1995.
400 InterdurationPrecipitationRelationsforStormsSoutheastStates.NOAATechnical
401 MemorandumUnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.21,72
402 p,1979.
403 ComparisonofGeneralizedestimatesofProbableMaximumPrecipitationwith
404 GreatestObservedRainfalls.NOAATechnicalMemorandumUnitedStatesWeather
406
407 TheNOAAandNWSpublicationsareavailablefromtheHDSCwebsites:
408 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/currentpf.htmand
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409 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/studies/pmp.html.Theengineerisencouragedto
410 visitthesewebsitestodownloadreportsanddataaswellaslookforperiodicupdatesof
411 reports.
412
413 (2)NWCC
414 TheNRCSNationalWaterandClimateCenter(NWCC),obtains,evaluates,managesand
415 disseminatesclimaticdatatosupportagencyprogramsandactivitiesnationwide.The
416 dataareprovidedthroughagencywideclimaticdatamanagementandanalysisservices
417 throughtheFieldOfficeTechnicalGuide(FOTG,2012).TheFOTGsectionIIcontains
418 climaticdataspecificcounties,includinghistoricaldatadeliveredthroughtheAgricultural
419 AppliedClimateInformationSystem(AgACIS).TheFOTGwebsiteat
420 http://efotg.sc.egov.usda.gov/efotg_locator.aspxallowstheusertoaccessdataforany
421 stateandcounty.TheNWCChasanumberofproducts,includingtheParameterelevation
422 RegressionsonIndependentSlopesModel(PRISM,2012)modelwhichusespoint
423 measurementsofprecipitation,temperature,andotherclimateelementstoproduce
424 continuous,digitalcoveragefortheUnitedStates.Someoftheirotherproductsinclude
425 climatereportsforsoilsurveyregions,wetlandsclimatetabledocumentation,climate
426 dataincludingweathergeneratortechnology(GenerationofweatherElementsfor
427 MultipleapplicationsorGEM,(2010),climatedatasets,andwinddatafortheUnited
428 States.
429
430 Hourlyand15minutetimeseries,alongwithotherclimaticvariables,aresupportedoff
431 linebytheNWCC.RequestsforthesespecialdatatypesshouldbemadetotheNWCC
432 throughtheappropriatestateoffice.
433
434 (b)Unpublisheddata
435 VariousFederalandStateagenciessometimesmakefieldsurveysafteranunusuallylarge
436 stormtocollect"bucketsurvey"data,whicharemeasurementsofrainfallcaughtin
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437 narrowboretubes,buckets,wateringtroughs,bottles,andsimilarcontainers.Ordinarily,
438 thesedataareusedtogivemoredetailtorainfallmapsbasedonstandardgagedata.The
439 bucketgagedatashouldbecarefullyevaluated.Datafrombucketsurveysaregenerally
440 notpublished,butareavailableintheofficesofthegatheringagency.
441
442 Narrowboretubesusedbymanyfarmersandranchershavegivenresultsalmostequalto
443 thosefromstandardgages.Tubegagesmustbeproperlyexposedandservicedtoobtain
444 suchresults.Manyfarmersandrancherskeepadailyorstormrecordofcatches.
445
446 Newspaperoffices,banks,watertreatmentplantsandmunicipalofficesoftencollect
447 measurementsattheirowngagesandkeepdailyrecords.
448
449 (c)Useofpublisheddata
450 Precipitationanalysismethods,dataqualityandquantity,datalimitations,and
451 recommendedusesofdatacontainedintheNWStechnicalpapersaregiveninthepapers
452 themselves.Understandingthesemethodsandlimitationswillaidinmorecorrectusage
453 ofthedataandbetterconclusionsfromusingthedata.
454
455 630.0402Rainfalloverawatershed
456 Inwatershedstudies,itisoftennecessarytoknowtheaveragedepthofrainfalloveran
457 area.Themethodsdescribedinthefollowingpagesapplytoboththeestimationof
458 averagestormeventrainfallandaveragerainfallorprecipitationforacertaintimeperiod
459 suchasannualormonthly.Averagestormrainfallcouldbeusedinahydrologicmodel
460 suchasWinTR20orWinTR55toestimatethepeakdischargeforthatparticularstorm
461 event.Anestimationofmeanannualprecipitation(MAP)maybeneededforother
462 purposessuchasapplicationofUSGSpeakdischargeequationswhenMAPisaregression
463 variableorrelatingtheMAPvaluetootherhydrologicdatasuchasvolumeofrunoff.The
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andDistribution
464 averagedepthcanbedeterminedinvariousways,dependingonthekindofdatabeing
465 used.IftherainfallamountistakenfromoneoftheNWStechnicalpapers,itisfora
466 specificpointandthepointarearelationshipgiveninthepaperisusedtoestimatethe
467 averagedepthoverthearea.Examplesinthepapersthemselvesillustratetheprocedure
468 foreachdocument.Itisdifficulttoobtainanaveragedepthfromdataofseveralrain
469 gagesbecausetheresultsareinfluencedbythenumberandlocationsofgagesandthe
470 stormvariability.Manualmethodsofusingsuchdataaregiveninthissection.
471
472 (a)Methodsofestimatingaveragedepths
473
474 (1)Useofonegage
475 Howwelltherainfallmeasuredatasinglegagerepresentstheaveragedepthoveranarea
476 dependson:
477 distancefromthegagetothecenterofthearea,
478 sizeofthearea,
479 durationandfrequencyofrainfallamountsbeingused,and
480 orographicandothereffectsofthetopographyofthelocality.
481
482 Theeffectsofthefirstthreeinfluencesareillustratedinfigures41through44.The
483 fourthisdescribedlaterinthissectionundertheheading(c)Orographicinfluences.
484
485 Theeffectofdistanceisshowninfigures41and42.In41,asinglegageislocatednear
486 thecenterofa0.75squaremilewatershed.Stormrainfallcatchesatthegageareseento
487 bequiteclosetothoseofthewatershedaverages,whichweredeterminedusingadense
488 networkofgages.However,inFigure42,wherethegageislocated4milesfromthe
11
andDistribution
489 watershedboundary,thestormrainfallcatchesatthegageoftendiffersignificantlyinthe
490 statisticalsensefromthewatershedaverages.
491
492 Asimilareffectisfoundwhentheareaofapplicationisincreased,asshowninfigure43,
493 wherethestormrainfallmeasuredatagageontheboundaryofa5.4squaremile
494 watershediscomparedtotheresultsfromadensernetofgages.Infigure44the
495 watershedaverageannualrainfallmeasuredatthesinglegageonthewatershed
496 boundaryiscomparedtothewatershedaverageannualrainfallmeasuredbythedenser
497 networkofgages.Figures41through44areallfromdatafromARSExperimental
498 AgriculturalWatershedsinHastings,Nebraska.
499
500 Figure41.Errorscausedbyuseofcatchesatonegagewithinthewatershed(area
501 =0.75squaremiles)asestimatesofwatershedaveragerainfall
502
503
504
12
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505 Figure42.Errorscausedbyuseofcatchesatonegageasestimatesofwatershed
506 averagerainfallwhenthegageislocatedoutsideofthewatershed(area=0.75
507 squaremiles)
508
509
510 Figure43.Errorscausedbyuseofcatchesatonegageonthewatershedboundary
511 asestimatesofwatershedaveragerainfall,watershedareais5.45squaremiles
512
13
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513 Figure44.Errorscausedbyuseofcatchesatonegageonthewatershedboundary
514 asestimatesofwatershedaveragerainfallonanannualbasis,watershedareais
515 5.45squaremiles
516
517
518 Thecorrespondencebetweengagecatchesandareaaveragesisclosewheretherainfall
519 amountsbeingusedaresumsofcatches,suchasmonthlyorannualrainfalls,becausethe
520 variationsforsinglestormstendtooffseteachother.Thegageandwatershedusedfor
521 figure43arealsousedinfigure44whereannualrainfallsareplotted.Thedifferences
522 betweengageandwatershedamountsareconsiderablysmallerthanthoseforthestorm
523 comparisonoffigure43.
524
525 Thecorrespondencebetweengageandareaamountsisalsocloseifthestormrainfallsare
526 usedwiththemethodsshowninchapter18(NRCS,2012)toconstructfrequencylinesfor
527 gageandareaamounts.Thecorrespondenceoccurringthenisforamountshavingthe
528 samefrequency.
529
530 Theexamplesweredevelopedfromdatatakenfromanonmountainousregionwhere
531 orographicinfluencesarenotsignificant;otherwise,theresultsmightbeverydifferent.
14
andDistribution
532 Theexamplesshowthattheuseofasinglegageleadstoerrorsinarealestimatesand
533 raisesthequestionofhowmucherrorispermissible.Accuracyofrainfallestimatesis
534 discussedinsection630.0403(b).
535
536 (2)Isohyetalmethod
537 Thespacingofgagesinanarealnetworkisseldomsufficientlyuniformtopermituseof
538 thenumericalaverageofthegagecatchesastheareaaverage.Isohyetalmapsareoften
539 used,withnetworksofanyconfiguration,togetareaaveragesorforstudiesofrainfall
540 distributions.Anisohyetisalineconnectingpointsofequalrainfalldepth.Themapis
541 madebydrawingthelinesinthesamemannerthatcontourlinesaredrawnon
542 topographicmaps,usingthegagelocationsasdatapoints.
543 Example41.Figures45through48illustratetheconstructionandapplicationofthe
544 isohyetalmethodtoaresearchwatershedinNebraska.Fourraingagesareassociated
545 withthewatershed;twoarewithinthewatershedboundaries,oneisontheboundary,
546 andafourthisjustoutsidethewatershed,asinFigure45.Theopencirclesarecentered
547 onthegagelocations,andalsoserveasdecimalpointsfortherainfallamounts.These
548 are1.40,1.54,1.94,and1.55,goingclockwisefromtheupperleft.
549
550
15
andDistribution
551 Figure45.RaingagelocationsandamountsinasmallNebraskawatershed
552 raingage
553
554 Step1::Locatetheraingagesonthewatershedmapandplottherainfallamounts.
555 Step2:Interpolatetheamountsfallingbetweentheraingages.Figure46showsone
556 suchline.
557
558
16
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559 Figure46.Estimatetherainfallamountsfallingbetweenthegagelocations
560 raingage
561
562 Step3:Usingtheestimatedrainfallsofstep2,developisohyetalstocoverthewhole
563 watershed.
564 Determinationoftheangleatwhichtodrawthelinesisverysubjectivewiththelimited
565 datashowninthisfigure.Datafromlocalbucketsurveysmaycontributesignificantlyto
566 locatingthelines,ifthebucketsurveydataarecarefullyevaluated.
567
17
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568 Figure47.Isohyetalmapdevelopedfromfigures45and46
569 raingage
570 Step4:Dividethewatershedintopartsbasedonisohyets,makeanestimateforeachpart,
571 andgetthewatershedaveragebyweightingtheamountsfortheparts.Thisprocedurefor
572 figure47isshowninTable41(a).Theaveragewatershedrainfallis1.61inches.
573
18
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574 Table41.Tabulationofwatershedrainfallfromisohyetalmap,figure47.
RainfallLimits Rainfall Numberof Percentofarea Weight

Inches Inches points*
(1) (2) (3) (4) (6)
<1.4 1.4 6 0.03 0.05
1.41.5 1.45 39 0.21 0.31
1.51.6 1.55 49 0.27 0.42
1.61.7 1.65 39 0.21 0.35
1.71.8 1.75 29 0.16 0.28
1.81.9 1.85 12 0.07 0.12
>1.9 1.9 9 0.05 0.09
Totals 183 1.00 1.61
AverageRainfall 1.61inches
575
576 Figure48.Adenserraingagenetworkprovidingamoredetailedisohyetalmap
577 raingage
578
579 Adensernetworkmaygiveamorecomplicatedisohyetalmapasinfigure48,wherethe
580 totalraingagenetworkonthisresearchwatershedisusedtodepictthestorm.Thereisan
19
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581 importantchangeindepthonpartsofthewatershed,butthewatershedaverageis1.63
582 inches,whichisnotasignificantimprovementinaccuracyovertheestimateinfigure47.
583 Aparticularnetworkmaythereforebeexcessivelycloseforonekindofestimateatthe
584 sametimethatitistooopenforanotherkind.Therelativeerrorofanareaaverage
585 obtainedthroughuseofanetworkcanbeestimatedasshowninsection630.0403(b).
586
587 Table42.Tabulationofisohyetalweightsfromfigure48.
RainfallLimits Rainfall Numberof Percentofarea Weight

Inches Inches points*
(1) (2) (3) (4) (6)
<1.4 1.4 3 0.02 0.02
1.41.5 1.45 25 0.14 0.21
1.51.6 1.55 58 0.33 0.52
1.61.7 1.65 31 0.18 0.29
1.71.8 1.75 34 0.20 0.34
1.81.9 1.85 17 0.10 0.18
>1.9 1.9 6 0.03 0.07
Totals 174 1.00 1.63
AverageRainfall 1.63inches
588 *Thenumberofpointswasdeterminedbyadotcounter,amethodofestimatingareas.
589
590 (3)Thiessenmethod
591 Anothermethodofusingaraingagenetworkforestimatingwatershedaveragedepths
592 thatisespeciallysuitableforelectroniccomputationistheThiessenmethodshownin
593 figures.49through412.Inthismethod,thewatershedareaisdividedintosubareas
594 usingraingagesashubsofpolygons.Thesubareasareusedtodetermineratiosthatare
595 multipliedbythesubarearainfallandsummedtogetthewatershedaveragedepth.The
596 ratiosarethepercentagesofareainthebasinrepresentedbyeachraingage.Construction
597 ofthepolygondiagramisillustratedinfigures49and410.
20
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598 TheThiessenweightsaretheratioofthegagespolygonareadividedbytheareaofthe
599 entirewatershed,asindicatedinfigure411.Watershedaveragedepthsarecomputedas
600 shownintable42.Ifagageisaddedorremovedfromthenetwork,anewdiagrammust
601 bedrawnandnewweightscomputed.Figure412showstheThiessenmethodfora
602 denserraingagenetwork.
603
604 Example42.ThisexampledemonstratestheThiessenmethodusing3raingages.
605
606 Step1:Drawlinesconnectingtheraingages,asinFigure49.
607
608 Figure49.WatershedwiththreeraingagesanalysisbytheThiessenmethod
609 raingage
610
611 Step2:Drawlinesbisectingthelinesconnectingthegages,asinFigure410.
612
613
21
andDistribution
614 Figure410.Thiessenweightsmethodstep2
615 raingage
616
617 Step3:Computetheweightofeachpolygonalsectionwithinthepolygonasshownin
618 figure411andtable43.
619
620 Table43.WatershedrainfalldepthbytheThiessenmethodappliedtofigure411
RainGageID Measuredrainfall,in Thiessenweight Weightedrainfall,in

A 1.40 0.407 0.570
B 1.54 0.156 0.240
C 1.94 0.437 0.848
Sum 1.000 1.658
621
22
andDistribution
622 Figure411.ThirdStepinthedeterminationofThiessenweights
623 raingage
624 Thewatershedweightedrainfalldepthis1.658inches,whichisroundedto1.66inches.
625
626 Figure412.AdenserThiessennetwork
627 raingage
628
629 ThedenserThiessennetworkwillgenerallyyieldaslightlydifferentanswer.TheThiessen
630 methodisnotusedtoestimaterainfalldepthsofmountainouswatershedssinceelevation
23
andDistribution
631 isastrongfactorinfluencingthearealdistribution(seesection630.0403(c),Orographic
632 influences).
633
634 (4)Othermethods
635 Othermethodsforestimatingarealaveragerainfallfromasystemofpointraingage
636 measurementsincludethereciprocaldistancesquaredmethod(WeiandMcGuiness
637 1978;SinghandChowdhury1986)anduseofgeostatistics(kriging)(McCuenandSnyder
638 1986;BrasandRodriguezIturbe1985).
639 UsingGIS,anisohyetalmapmaybecreatedforalayerofpointseachwitharainfall
640 amount.TherearevariousoptionsusingGISsoftwaretodevelopasurfacebasedonthe
641 rainfallpoints.Theproductofthistechnologyisagridlayerwithrainfallforeachcell.A
642 specificcellsizesuchas10metersor30metersorlargermustbeselected.Fromthisgrid
643 layerofrainfallandaGISlayerofthewatershedboundary,statisticsincludingthe
644 maximum,minimum,andmeanrainfallforthewatershedmaybecomputed.Forfurther
645 instructionsorassistancewithuseofGISinthisregard,pleasecontactaGISspecialist.
646
647 TheexamplebelowwasdevelopedforasmallwatershedinCoshoctonCounty,Ohiousing
648 GISmethods.Thewatershedboundaryisdigitizedfirst.
649
650
24
andDistribution
651 Figure413.ThedigitizedwatershedboundaryforasmallwatershedinCoshocton
652 County,Ohio
653
654
655 Apointlayerwiththerainfallpointmeasurementsininchesisdevelopednext.
656
25
andDistribution
657 Figure414.PointrainfallmeasurementsforasmallwatershedinCoshocton
658 County,Ohio
659
660
661
26
andDistribution
662 TheSpatialAnalystInterpolationcommandisusedtogeneratetheisohyetalmap.
663
664 Figure415.Theisohyetalmapbasedonthepointrainfallmeasurementsinfigure
665 414
666
667
668 TheSpatialAnalystZonalStatisticsasTablecommandisexecutedandtheminimum,
669 maximum,range,andmeanrainfallforthewatershedarecomputedinthelastfour
670 columns.Themeanrainfallis4.54inches.ThefirsttwocolumnscontainGISidentifiers.
671 Thenexttwocolumnsarethenumberofrastersinsidethewatershedandtheareaofthe
672 watershedinsquaremeters.
673
27
andDistribution
674 Figure416.
675 TableofzonalstatisticsgeneratedbyGISprogram
676
677
678 ForfurtherinstructionsorassistancewithuseofGISinthisregard,pleasecontactaGIS
679 specialist.
680
681 (b)Accuracy
682 Accuracyofanyrainfallestimatedependsmainlyonthedistancebetweenagageandthe
683 pointofapplicationoftheestimate,regardlessofthemethodused.Inmountainousareas,
684 theverticaldistancemaybemoreimportantthanthehorizontal,butforflatorrolling
685 country,onlythehorizontaldistancematters.Foranetwork,bothdistanceand
686 arrangementofgagesaffecttheaccuracy.Unlessspecialstudiesatagagesitehavebeen
687 made,thepossibledifferencesbetweengageandaveragewatershedrainfallsare
688 generallyignored.
689
690 Figure417canbeusedtoestimatetherangeoferrorlikelytooccurninetimesoutoften
691 ifthecatchatasinglegageisusedasadepthforalocationsomedistanceaway.Itwas
692 developedfrominformationgivenbyHuffandNeill(1957)forsmallareasinIllinois.
693 Equation5ofthisreferencewasmodifiedtogiveresultsona10percentlevelof
694 significance.Horizontaldistanceisused,sothediagramdoesnotapplyinmountainous
695 areasorhighdesertcountry.Thefollowingexamplesshowhowthediagramcanbeused.
696
28
andDistribution
697 Figure417.Estimatingtheupperorpositiveincrementoferrorintransposed
698 rainfallamounts(modifiedfromHuffandNeill1957)
699
700
701 Example43.Thestormrainfalldepthatagageis3.5inches.Whatrainfalldepthis
702 likelytohaveoccurred,withaprobabilityof0.9(9chancesoutof10),atapoint5miles
703 awayfromthegage?
704
705 Step1:Enterfigure417withthedistanceof5miles,andattheintersectionofthe3.5
706 inchline(byinterpolation),reada"pluserror"of2.1inches.
707
29
andDistribution
708 Step2:Computeaminuserrorashalfofthepluserror:2.1/2=1.05.Roundoffto1.1
709 inches.
710
711 Step3:Computetherangeofrainfalllikelytohaveoccurredninechancesoutoften.The
712 limitsare3.5+2.1=5.6inches,and3.51.1=2.4inches.Therefore,wherethegagehasa
713 catchof3.5inches,thereisaprobabilityof0.9(9chancesoutof10)thattherainfalldepth
714 atapoint5milesawayfromthegageisbetween2.4and5.6inches.
715
716 Instep2ofexample43,theminuserroristakenashalfthepluserror.Thisisan
717 approximation,butexample44andthediscussionfollowingshowthisapproximation
718 generallyapplies.
719
720 Inexample44,thegraphsoffigures418through417showthevariationtobe
721 expectedwhendataatonegageareusedtoestimatetherainfalldepthatadistantpoint.
722
723 Example44.RaingagesB28RandG42R,ontheAgriculturalResearchService
724 watershedinWebsterCounty,Nebraska,are4.3milesapart.Givenanystormrainfallof0
725 to4inchesdepthatG42R,computetherangeoferrortobeexpectediftherainfallat
726 B28RistobeestimatedfromthatatG42Rusingfigure417.Afterplottingtheerrorlines
727 onFigure418,comparethecomputedrangewiththeplottingofactualdatapointsforthe
728 twogages.
729
730 Step1:Plotalineofequalvalues,whichisthemiddlelineonfigure418.
731
732 Step2:SelectthreevaluesontheG42Rdepthscale.Thesevalueswillbeusedwithfigure
733 417.Forthisexample,theselectedvaluesare1,2,and4inches.
30
andDistribution
734
735 Step3:Enterfigure417withthedistanceof4.3miles,andattheintersectionsofthe1,
736 2,and4inchrainfalllinesreadpluserrorsof1.15,1.50,and2.15inches,respectively.
737 (Thereadingforthe1inchrainfalllinerequiresanextrapolation.)
738
739 Step4:Computetheminuserrors.Theseare0.58,0.75,and1.08inches.
740
741 Figure418.Stormrainfallatgages4.3milesapart
742
743
744 Step5:Plotthepluserrorandminuserrorlinesasshownonfigure418.Theplotted
745 pointsinthefigureareforactualmeasurementsatthegages.Onlythreepointsofthegage
31
andDistribution
746 data(lessthan10percent)falloutsidetheerrorrange,sotheexpectederrorforthispair
747 ofgagesissomewhatlessthanthatpredictedbyfigure417.
748
749 Figure419.StormrainfallgagesatDallasandFortWorth,Texas,about30miles
750 apart
751
752
753
32
andDistribution
754 Figure420.Annualprecipitationat2gages4.3milesapart,ARSwatershedin
755 WebsterCounty,Nebraska
756
757
758 Figure421.Annualprecipitationat2gagesabout30milesapartatDallasand
759 FortWorth,Texas
760
33
andDistribution
761 Oneadvantageinusingfigure417isthatwherearainfallestimateistobemadefor
762 somedistantpoint,theerrorlinescanbedrawninadvancetogiveanideaofthevalueof
763 theestimate.Notethatthepercentageoferrordecreasesastherainfallamountincreases.
764 Errorlineshavealsobeendrawnonfigures419,420and421,usingthemethodof
765 example44,asafurthercheckonfigure417.Ineachoftheplots,adifferentnumberof
766 pointsfallsoutsidetheerrorlines,butontheaverageonly10percentshouldbeoutside.
767 Thisisconfirmedbythecomputationshownintable43.
768
769 Table44.Computationsforpercentagesofpointsoutsideoferrorlines
Figures418 (418) (419) (420) (421) Total

through421
Numberof 91 35 7 20 153
points
Number 3 10 0 3 16
outsidelines
Percentage 3.30 28.60 0.00 15.00 10.46

outsidelines
770
771 Figure417assumesthetwolocationsarewithinthesameclimateregimeandhave
772 similaraverageannualprecipitation.Partofthereasonfordiscrepanciesinfigures419
773 and421isthatDallasandFortWorthhavesignificantlydifferentclimateand
774 precipitation.Forexample,overhalfofthepointsfallabovethelineofequalvalue
775 indicatingDallasprecipitationisgenerallyhigher.
776
777 Figure422servesthesamepurposeforanareathatfigure417servesforapoint.Itwas
778 developedfromworkbyMcGuinness(1963)forarangeofrainfallamountsand
34
andDistribution
779 geographiclocationsinthemidwestUS.Theusermustexercisesomejudgmentbefore
780 applyingtheinformationinthisfigureinotherlocations.
781
782 Figure422.Networkchartforestimatingtheerrorinwatershedaveragerainfall
783 amounts(modifiedfromMcGuiness1963)
784
785 Inusingfigure422,thenumberofgagesonthewatershedmustfirstbedetermined.The
786 numberisseldomclearlyevident,asthetypicalexamplesoffigure423show.
787
788
35
andDistribution
789 Figure423.Typicalraingagenetworks
790 raingage
791
792 Infigure423(a),thegagenetworkABCwouldbeusedforanisohyetalmaporin
793 computingThiessenweights.Thewatershedaveragerainfalldepthestimatedfroman
794 isohyetalmapbasedontheuseofABCwouldbemoreaccuratethanifbasedonBC.
795 Therefore,itwouldnotbecorrecttosaythereareonlytwogages"within"thewatershed
796 whenfigure423(a)isused.
797
798 Infigure423(b),however,allsixgagesofthenetworkDEFGHIarephysicallywithinthe
799 watershed,butgagesDEFGaremuchtooclosetogetherascomparedwiththeremaining
800 gagestobeconsideredasindividualgages.
801
36
andDistribution
802 Infigure423(c)wheregagesJKLMNPhavevaryingdistancesbetweenadjacentgages,
803 determininghowmanygagesare"in"thewatershedisevenmoredifficult.Withthecase
804 showninfigure423(d),wherethenetworkQRSTiscompletelyoutsidethewatershed
805 (butstillusableforconstructionofanisohyetalmap)anydecisiononthenumberofgages
806 "in"thewatershedwouldbearbitrary.
807
808 Therefore,figure422shouldbeusedwithoutspendingmuchtimeondecidinghow
809 manygagesareapplicable.Theexamplesthatfollowwillillustratewhatcanbedoneeven
810 withtheextremecasesoffigure423.Notethatfigure418givesanaverageerrorthatis
811 ofthesamemagnitudeplusandminus,inthisrespectdifferingfromfigure417.
812
813 Example45.Assumingthatthewatershedoffigure423(a)hasadrainageareaof200
814 squaremilesandanaverageannualrainfallof35inches,findtheaverageerrorof
815 estimatewhenthewatershedaveragedepthis4.5inches.
816
817 Figure422isusedfirstwithanetworkoftwo,thenofthreegagesandtheresultsare
818 compared.The2gagenetworkgivesanerrorofabout13percent,anda3gagenetwork
819 givesanerrorofabout8percent.Ineithercase,theerrorisrelativelysmall.
820
821 Example46.Thesizeofthewatersheditselfcanhavenobearingonthewatershed
822 averagerainfalldepthwhenthenetworkisthatoffigure423(d).Insuchcasesthearea
823 ofthepolygonformedbythenetworkQRSTisusedinfigure422.Ifthewatershed
824 averageannualrainfallis35inchesandthenetworkpolygonareais375squaremiles,
825 thenfigure422givesanestimateofabout8percenterrorfora5inchrain.Thisisforthe
826 areaofthepolygonand,presumably,foranywatershedwithinit.Itisreasonableto
827 expectthatthesmallerthewatershed,thelargertheerrorwillbe,butthiscannotbe
828 determinedonthebasisofpresentinformation.
37
andDistribution
829
830 Figure422shouldbeusedwithsomecaution.Asexamples45and46show,itgives
831 onlyroughapproximations.And,forcasessuchasthenetworksinfigures423(b)and4
832 23(c),neitherthenumberofgagestobeusednortheareaofapplicabilityiseasyto
833 define.Despitetheselimitations,figure422functionswellinkeepingthehydrologist
834 awareoftherangeoferrorpossibleincalculations.
835
836 (c)Orographicinfluences
837 Inhillyormountainouscountry,rainfallcatchesareinfluencedbyphysiographic
838 variables,bothlocalanddistant.Someoftheseare:
839 Elevationoraltitude
840 Localslope
841 Orientationoraspectoftheslope
842 Distancefromthemoisturesource
843 Topographicbarrierstoincomingmoisture
844 Degreeofexposure,whichisdefinedas"thesumofthosesectorsofacircleof20
845 mileradiuscenteredatthestation,containingnobarrier1,000feetormoreabove
846 stationelevation,expressedindegreesofarcofcircle(azimuth)"(Hiatt1953).
847
848 Inatypicalwatershedstudy,itisseldompossibletodeterminetheinfluencesofallthese
849 variables.Orographiceffectscanbesimulatedinahydrologicmodelbydividingthe
850 watershedintosubareasrelatedtoelevation.Adifferentrainfallmaybeusedforeach
851 subarea.
852
853 Figure424and425showanexampleoftheinfluencesofaltitudeandtopographic
854 barriersonrainfall.Therainfallamountsindicatedbythepointsinfigure424were
855 recordedduringthestormofFebruary27toMarch4,1938,insouthernCalifornia,inthe
856 vicinityoftheSantaAna,SanBernardino,andSanGabrielmountains,whichlieroughly
857 paralleltotheCaliforniacoast.Theseriesofmoistureladenairmassesassociatedwith
38
andDistribution
858 thestormssweptinfromthePacificOceantoencounterthemountainrangesatalmost
859 rightanglestotheirpath.Themountainsactedasobstructions,thrustingthewarm,moist
860 airupwardintocolderair,andtheresultantrapidcondensationproducedexcessively
861 heavyrainfall,particularlyonthecoastalsideoftheranges.Thedesertsideoftheranges
862 (fig.424)hadsignificantlylessrainfall.Muchofthemoisturehadalreadybeenpulledout
863 oftheairmassbythetimeitreachedthedesertsideoftheranges.Astheairmass
864 warmedmovingdownthedesertsideofthemountainslopes,itnolongerhadaready
865 moisturesourceandthusbecamedrier.
866
867 Figure424.Orographicinfluencesonrainfall(Source:USGS1942)
868
869
870
39
andDistribution
871 Figure425.PointsdenotinggagelocationsforraingagesinFigure424
872
873
874 630.0403Temporaldistributionofrainfall
875 (a)Introduction
876 Sourcesofprecipitationfrequencydataarediscussedinsection630.0402ofthischapter.
877 Thesedatawerederivedusingvarioustechnicalmethods,forvariouspurposesor
878 objectives,overaperiodofmanyyears.Usingthesedataforhydrologicmodelingas
879 describedinNEH630chapters16and21requiresdefinitionofhowtheprecipitationfalls
880 throughoutastormofaparticularduration.Forexample,a24hourrainfalldistribution
881 maybedefinedatatimeintervalof0.1hourandthecumulativedistributionofrainfall
882 startsatthebeginningofthestormandendsatthe24hourrainfallvalue.
883
884 Rainfalldistributionsmaybedevelopedforactualstormsifsufficientdataareavailable.
885 Anactualstormisalsoreferredtoasanhistoricalstorm.Thistypeofanalysisisoften
886 valuableincalibratingahydrologicmodelsuchthattheresultingpeakdischarge,
887 hydrograph,highwatermark,orothercalibrationdatamaybereproduced.Oncea
888 hydrologicmodeliscalibrated,hypothetical,synthetic,and/ordesignrainfalldepthsand
889 distributionsmaybeanalyzedwiththehydrologicmodeltoestimateimpactsofflood
40
andDistribution
890 events.Inthissection,developmentofhistoricalanddesignstormdistributionswillbe
891 describedandapplicationguidelinesandmethodswillbepresented.Thehistoryofthe
892 standardNRCSstormdistributionswillbedescribed.
893
894 (b)DevelopmentoftheTypeI,IA,II,andIIIrainfalldistributions
895 ThestandardNRCSTypeIandTypeIIrainfalldistributionswhichareusedfordesignand
896 planningofNRCSwaterrelatedprojectsarebasedonTP40(1961)rainfallfrequency
897 maps(SCS,1973).ThestandardNRCSTypeIAusedinthePacificNorthwestwas
898 developedbasedonmajorstormcumulativerainfalldistributions(Woodward,1975).
899 TheNRCSTypeIIIdistributionisbasedonHydro35(1977)andTP40(Cronsheyand
900 Woodward,1989).Eachofthesefourrainfalldistributionshasanintenserainfallperiod
901 somewherenearthemiddleandlesserrainfallintensitiesatthebeginningandendofthe
902 storm(seeFigure426).
903
904 Figure426.PlotoftimedistributionofTypesI,IA,II,andIII
905
41
andDistribution
906 TheTypeI,TypeIA,TypeII,andTypeIIIdistributionshavebeenappliedtoverylarge
907 geographicregions.Forinstance,theTypeIIdistributionappliestoalargepartofthe
908 continentalUnitesStates.
909
910 Figure427.MapofUnitedStateswithappropriaterainfalldistributions,asof
911 August2012
912
913
914 Figure427showsthestatusofrainfalldistributionregionswiththecompletionofNOAA
915 Atlas14forthesouthweststates,California,andOhioValleyandadjacentstates,andthe
916 NortheastRegionalClimateCenter(NRCC)completionofNewYorkandNewEngland
917 states.NOAAAtlas14hasalsobeenpublishedforHawaii,PuertoRico,USVirginIslands,
918 selectedPacificIslands,andAlaska,althoughthesearenotshowninFigure427.Within
919 thestateswhereNOAAAtlas14andNRCChavecompletedupdatedprecipitation
920 frequencyanalyses,individualstatesandgroupsofstateshavedevelopedrainfall
42
andDistribution
921 distributionsbasedontheupdateddata.ThesourceofthesedistributionsistheNRCS
922 WaterQualityandQuantityTechnologyDevelopmentTeamwebsite
923 (http://go.usa.gov/KoZ)forthemodelstoolspage.Asthesouthern,midwestern,Rocky
924 Mountain,PacificNorthwest,andnortheaststatesarecoveredinfuturevolumesofNOAA
925 Atlas14,Figure427willberevised.Montanaisnotassignedasingledistribution
926 becausethestatehasaproceduretoselecttherainfalldistributionbasedontheratioof6
927 hourto24hourrainfalldepths(NRCS,1990).
928
929 Withineachregionthereissignificantvariabilityofrainfallmagnitudeanddistribution.
930 Forexample,rainfalldistributionsbasedonTP40dataatvariouslocationswillshow
931 differencesbylocationandalsobyreturnperiodaswillthosebasedontheNOAA14and
932 NRCCdata.Theengineermustdeterminehowmuchdifferenceisacceptableforwhatever
933 theprojectmaybe.InSCSTP149(1973),thereareseverallocations(Alabama,Puerto
934 Rico,Nebraska,andUtah)wheretherainfallversusdurationisplotted.Theseplotsshow
935 differencesatastationover0.5incheswhencomparedtotheTypeIIcurve.Fromthe
936 locationsplotted,reservationsmayberaisedonhowmuchvariationtherewouldbe
937 withintheTypeIIregionandifitisjustifiedtouseonedistributiontorepresentsucha
938 largeregion.TheonlysurvivingdocumentationconcerningdevelopmentoftheTypeI
939 andTypeIIrainfalldistributionsisTP149.Anexamplefollowswhichdetermineshow
940 closelytheTypeIIdistributioncompareswiththeoriginalTP40rainfallvalues.
941 Columbus,Ohiowasselectedasalocationtocomparethesitespecificrainfalldistribution
942 developedwithdatafromTP40andHydro35withthestandardTypeIIdistribution
943 whichhasbeenusedthereinthepast(Appendix41).Theratiosforeachdurationtothe
944 24hourrainfallwhichareimbeddedinthestandardTypeIIrainfalldistributionfollow:
945
946
43
andDistribution
947 Table45.Ratiosto24hourrainfallfortheTypeIIdistribution
Duration Ratioto24hourrainfall
5minutes 0.114
10minutes 0.201
15minutes 0.270
30minutes 0.380
1hour 0.454
2hours 0.538
3hours 0.595
6hours 0.707
12hours 0.841
24hours 1.00
948
949 Thepurposeofarainfalldistributionistoinsurethatthemaximumrainfallsforall
950 durationsfrom5minutesto24hoursarerepresentedaccurately.Theprimary
951 assumptionmadeinthedevelopmentoftherainfalldistributionisthatthesamereturn
952 periodrainfallvaluesoccurwithinone24hourperiod.Forexample,the25year5
953 minute,25year10minute,25year15minuteuptothe25year24hourrainfalloccurs
954 withinthesamedesignstorm.Thepeakdischargeforawatershedishighlydependenton
955 therainfallforadurationequaltothewatershedtimeofconcentration(Tc).Nestingall
956 durationsintoasingle24hourdistributionwillallowonedistributiontobeusedonall
957 watershedswithaTclessthan24hours.Also,itallowsforaccurateinterpolationof
958 rainfallintensitiesfornonstandarddurationssuchas45minutesor1.5hours.
959 Developingageneralizeddistributionforageographicregionofsignificantarealextent
960 couldinvolvelargeerrorswhencomparingdurationratiosoftherainfalldistributionwith
961 theactualratioatalocationbasedonprecipitationfrequencyanalysis(whetheritis
962 Hydro35,TP40,NOAAAtlas2,orNOAAAtlas14).
963
44
andDistribution
964 (c)Developmentofarainfalldistributionforanhistoricalstorm
965 Onepurposefordevelopingarainfalldistributionforanhistoricalstormistoruna
966 hydrologicmodelsuchasWinTR20orWinTR55forawatershedtovalidatethemodel
967 dataagainstsomeactualflooddatasuchasapeakdischarge,floodhydrograph,orhigh
968 watermarks.Onceahydrologicmodelisvalidatedinthismanner,theengineerhasmore
969 confidencethatanalysesofhypotheticalstormeventssuchas25yearand100year
970 returnperiodsarereasonable.ThisexampleusesthestormofAugust30,2005at
971 Columbus,Ohio.FromrecordsoftheNationalWeatherServicetheactualtimeandhourly
972 precipitationdataareshownincolumns1and3oftable45.
973
974
45
andDistribution
975 Table46.HourlyrainfalldataanddistributionatColumbusOhio,August30,2005
Actualtime, Timefrom Hourly Accumulated Accumulated TypeII

hours beginningof precipitation, precipitation, ratio stormratio
storm,hours inches inches
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
4AM 0 0 0 0 0
5 1 0.01 0.01 0.004 0.011
6 2 0.01 0.02 0.007 0.022
7 3 0.02 0.04 0.015 0.035
8 4 0.03 0.07 0.026 0.048
9 5 0.01 0.08 0.030 0.063
10 6 0.03 0.11 0.041 0.080
11 7 0.04 0.15 0.056 0.099
12Noon 8 0.07 0.22 0.082 0.120
1 9 0.0 0.22 0.082 0.147
2 10 0.02 0.24 0.090 0.181
3 11 0.12 0.36 0.135 0.235
4 12 0.19 0.55 0.206 0.663
5 13 0.42 0.97 0.363 0.772
6 14 0.31 1.28 0.479 0.820
7 15 0.35 1.63 0.610 0.854
8 16 0.21 1.84 0.689 0.880
9 17 0.19 2.03 0.760 0.902
10 18 0.14 2.17 0.813 0.921
11 19 0.15 2.32 0.869 0.938
12Midnight 20 0.09 2.41 0.903 0.952
1 21 0.06 2.47 0.925 0.965
2 22 0.07 2.54 0.951 0.977
3 23 0.06 2.6 0.974 0.989
4 24 0.07 2.67 1.000 1.000
976
46
andDistribution
977 Thehourlyvaluesareaccumulatedfromthebeginningtotheendofthestorminthe
978 column4oftable45.Theratiooftheaccumulatedprecipitationtothetotalstorm
979 precipitationisshowninthecolumn5.Forcomparison,theratiooftheTypeIIstorm
980 distributionisshowninthecolumn6.Thecumulativeratiosfortheactualstormevent
981 andtheTypeIIareshowninfigure428.
982
983 Figure428.PlotsofactualstormaccumulatedprecipitationandtheTypeII
984 distribution
985
986
987 TheTypeIIisasyntheticdesignstormdistributionandcannotbeexpectedtoexactly
988 matchanactualstorm.However,thestormofAugust30,2005hasthesamegeneral
989 shapestartingwithlowrainfallintensityatthebeginningofthestorm,higherintensityin
990 themiddleandlowerintensityneartheend.Thisactualstormdistributionmaybe
47
andDistribution
991 enteredinWinTR20orWinTR55toestimatepeakdischargesandhydrographsfora
992 particularwatershedandcomparethemtocalibrationdata.
993
994 (d)NOAAAtlas14Analyses
995 ThefoundationofrainfalldistributionsasusedthroughoutthehistoryofNRCSistheset
996 ofratiosoftheshorterdurationstothe24hourrainfall.Theratiosof5minutethrough
997 12hourrainfalltothe24hourrainfallimbeddedintotheTypeIIdistributionare
998 includedintable44asanexample.Thereweresignificantanalysesoftheratiosbasedon
999 NOAAAtlas14dataforthedesertsouthwest(NOAAAtlas14,Volume1)andOhioValley
1000 andneighboringstates(NOAAAtlas14,Volume2)withrespecttoanalysisofmanypoint
1001 locationsandanalysisofgeospatialdata(Merkeletal.2006).
1002
1003 Tosummarizetheresultsoftheanalyses,theratiosofshorterdurationtothe24hour
1004 rainfallvariedbothspatiallyandbyreturnperiodenoughtoconcludethatthestandard
1005 NRCSrainfalldistributions(TypesI,IA,II,andIII)arenotconsistentwithNOAAAtlas14
1006 rainfallvaluesandthatrainfalldistributionswhichcoverlargegeographicregionsmay
1007 havelargevariationofratioswhichcouldleadtooverorunderestimationofpeak
1008 dischargewhenusedwithahydrologicmodelsuchasWinTR20orWinTR55.
1009
1010 Toillustratethevariationofrainfalldistributionwithreturnperiod,theWilmington
1011 Airport,NorthCarolinastationwasselected.Thepartialdurationprecipitationvalues
1012 weredownloadedandtheratiosof5minute/24hourthrough12hour/24hourratios
1013 werecomputedandplottedinFigure429.
1014
48
andDistribution
1015 Figure429.Theratiosof5minute/24hourthrough12hour/24hourratiosfor
1016 differentdistributionsusingdataforWilmingtonAirport,NC
1017
1018
1019 InFigure429,theratiosforthe1yearthrough500yearreturnperiodsarecompared
1020 withtheratiosimbeddedwithinthestandardTypesI,II,andIIIrainfalldistributions.
1021
1022 ThefigureshowsthattheTypeIIratiosareanapproximateupperlimitwhichfallsclose
1023 tothe1yearratios.TheTypeIIIratiosfallinthemidrangeofthereturnperiods(25
1024 and50year).TheTypeIratiosareanapproximatelowerlimitforthe500yearratiosup
1025 toabout30minuteduration.Theratiosshowthatitwouldbeinappropriatetousea
1026 singlerainfalldistributionforallreturnperiods.
1027
49
andDistribution
1028 Wilmington,NCisasomewhatextremeexampleofratiovariationbyreturnperiod.Many
1029 otherlocationshaveanarrowerrangeofvariation.However,ifthisvariationisevident
1030 anywhere,itleadstotheconclusionthatnewrainfalldistributionsareneeded.A
1031 procedurehasbeendevelopedwhichwillderiverainfalldistributionstocoverthewide
1032 rangeofclimaticconditionsfromtropicaltoarcticwhichoccurintheUS(Merkel,2006).
1033 ThisprocedureisexplainedinAppendices2and3ofthischapter.
1034
1035 630.0404References
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51
andDistribution
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1104 Internet)
52
andDistribution
1106 NationalEngineeringHandbook,Part630,Chapter16,Hydrographs.
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53
andDistribution
1133 NationalWeatherService.1977.Fiveto60MinutePrecipitationFrequencyforthe
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1135 SilverSpring,MD.
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1138 SoutheastStates.NOAATechnicalMemorandumHydrometeorologicalReportNo.21.
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1145 NationalWeatherService.1984.ProbableMaximumPrecipitationMaximum
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1147 TechnicalMemorandumNWSHydro39.SilverSpring,MD.
1149 NationalWeatherService.1985.ProbableMaximumPrecipitationEstimatesforthe
1150 DrainageaboveDeweyDam,JohnsCreek,Kentucky.TechnicalMemorandumNWS
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54
andDistribution
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1181 Version1.0Alaska
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55
andDistribution
1185 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/iwx/program_areas/coop/8inch.php
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1192 SourisRiveraboveMinot,NorthDakota.UnitedStatesWeatherBureau
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1196 PrecipitationEstimates,UnitedStatesEastofthe105thMeridian,NOAA
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1211 U.S.DepartmentoftheArmy,CorpsofEngineers.reprint1984.ProbableMaximum
56
andDistribution
1212 PrecipitationEstimates,ColoradoRiverandGreatBasindrainages,UnitedStates
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57
andDistribution
1240 BureauofReclamation.1988.ProbableMaximumPrecipitationEstimatesUnited
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1256 PrecipitationPacificNorthwestStates.ColumbiaRiver(includingportionsof
1257 Canada),SnakeRiverandPacificCoastalDrainages.HydrometeorologicalReportNo.
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1261 DepartmentofInterior,BureauofReclamation.1994.ProbableMaximum
1262 PrecipitationPacificNorthwestStates.ColumbiaRiver(includingportionsof
1263 Canada),SnakeRiverandPacificCoastalDrainages.HydrometeorologicalReportNo.
1264 57,Maps.SilverSpring,MD.
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1267 BasinsintheTennesseeandCumberlandRiverWatersheds.Hydrometeorological
1268 ReportNo.47,SilverSpring,MD.
58
andDistribution
1270 TennesseeValleyAuthority.1986.ProbableMaximumandTVAPrecipitation
1271 EstimateswithArealDistributionforTennesseeRiverDrainagesLessThan3,000Mi2
1272 inArea.UnitedStatesWeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.56.Silver
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1274 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,the
1275 tippingbucketraingauge,http://www.nws.noaa.gov/asos/tipbuck.htm,1995.
1277 U.S.NuclearRegulatoryCommission.1980.SeasonalVariationof10SquareMile
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1280 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,U.S.WeatherBureau.1961.RainfallFrequencyAtlasof
1281 theUnitedStates,TechnicalPaperNo.40.Washington,D.C.
1282 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,U.S.WeatherBureau.1961.GeneralizedEstimatesof
1283 ProbableMaximumPrecipitationandRainfallFrequencyDataforPuertoRicoand
1284 VirginIslands,UnitedStatesWeatherBureau,TechnicalPaper42.Washington,D.C.
1285 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,U.S.WeatherBureau.1963.ProbableMaximum
1286 PrecipitationintheHawaiianIslands,UnitedStatesWeatherBureau
1287 HydrometeorologicalReportNo.39.Washington,D.C.
1288 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,U.S.WeatherBureau.1963.ProbableMaximum
1289 PrecipitationandRainfallFrequencyDataforAlaska,UnitedStatesWeatherBureau,
1290 TechnicalPaperNo.47,Washington,D.C.
1291 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,U.S.WeatherBureau.1964.TwotoTenDay
1292 PrecipitationforReturnPeriodsof2to100yearsintheContiguousUnitedStates,
1293 UnitedStatesWeatherBureau,TechnicalPaperNo.49.Washington,D.C.Includesthe
1294 48contiguousstates.(UseSCSWestNationalTechnicalCenterTechnicalNote
1295 HydrologyPO6,Revised1973,forStatescoveredbyNOAAAtlas2).
59
andDistribution
1296 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,U.S.WeatherBureau.1965.ProbableMaximumand
1297 TVAPrecipitationovertheTennesseeRiverBasinaboveChattanooga.UnitedStates
1298 WeatherBureauHydrometeorologicalReportNo.41.Washington,D.C.
1299 USDepartmentofInterior,USGeologicalSurvey,1942.FloodsofMarch1938in
1300 SouthernCalifornia,WaterSupplyPaper844.Washington,D.C.
1301 Vasquez,T.1998.InternationalWeatherWatchersobserverhandbook,Weather
1302 GraphicsTechnologies.Washington,D.C.
1303 Wei,T.C.,andJ.L.McGuinness.1978.Reciprocaldistancesquaredmethods,A
1304 computertechniqueforestimatingareaprecipitation.ARSNC8,U.S.Agric.Research
1305 Serv.,NorthCentralRegion,Coshocton,OH.
1306 Woodward,D.E.1974.DiscussionofEstimationofRainfallErosionIndexbyJ.K.H.
1307 Ateshian,JournalofIrrigationandDrainageDivision,AmericanSocietyofCivil
1308 Engineers,Vol100.NoIR3,pp.245247.
1309
60
andDistribution
1310 Appendix4A.Precipitationfrequencydataanddistribution
1311 forColumbus,Ohio
1312
1313 Thisappendixexplainsandshowsthroughtablesandcalculationshowtocompare
1314 rainfallmagnitudeandrainfalldistributionfromanolderrainfallatlas(suchasTP40or
1315 NOAAAtlas2)withdatafromNOAAAtlas14foraparticularlocation.Thisappendixis
1316 referencedinsection630.0405Temporaldistributionofrainfall.
1317 ThisappendixconsidersthedataforColumbus,Ohio.Itisincludedtoshowanexampleof
1318 howoldandnewrainfallfrequencydataandrainfalldistributionmaybecompared.
1319
1320 Table4A1.PrecipitationfrequencyforColumbusOhio(NOAA,Hydro35,1977).
1321 Valuesareinunitsofinches
Durationmin 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr

5 0.43 0.49 0.55 0.63 0.69 0.75
10 0.66 0.79 0.89 1.03 1.15 1.26
15 0.82 1.00 1.13 1.32 1.46 1.61
30 1.06 1.33 1.52 1.79 2.01 2.22
60 1.30 1.67 1.92 2.29 2.57 2.85
1322
1323
61
andDistribution
1324 Table4A2.PrecipitationfrequencyforColumbus,Ohio(NWS,TP40,1961).
1325 Valuesareinunitsofinches
Durationhr 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr

0.5 1.02 1.28 1.48 1.7 1.9 2.1
1 1.26 1.6 1.8 2.15 2.4 2.7
2 1.52 1.9 2.25 2.5 2.85 3.1
3 1.65 2 2.4 2.8 3 3.4
6 1.95 2.45 2.9 3.25 3.7 3.9
12 2.35 2.9 3.35 3.75 4 4.75
24 2.6 3.3 3.8 4.3 4.7 5
1326
1327 Table4A3.Ratioofshorterdurationto24hourprecipitationforColumbus,Ohio
1328 (Hydro35andTP40)
Duration 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr

5minHydro35 0.163 0.150 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.150
10minHydro35 0.253 0.240 0.234 0.240 0.244 0.251
15minHydro35 0.315 0.303 0.297 0.306 0.312 0.322
30minTP40 0.392 0.388 0.389 0.395 0.404 0.420
1hrTP40 0.485 0.485 0.474 0.500 0.511 0.540
2hrTP40 0.585 0.576 0.592 0.581 0.606 0.620
3hrTP40 0.635 0.606 0.632 0.651 0.638 0.680
6hrTP40 0.750 0.742 0.763 0.756 0.787 0.780
12hrTP40 0.904 0.879 0.882 0.872 0.851 0.950
24hrTP40 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
1329
1330
62
andDistribution
1331 Figure4A1.Plotofratiosofshorterdurationtothe24hourprecipitationfor
1332 Columbus,Ohio
1333
1334 TheHydro35ratioisplottedfor5minuteto15minute.TheTP40ratioisplottedfor
1335 30minuteto24hourdurations.
1336
1337
63
andDistribution
1338 Table4A4.ComparisonofratiosforColumbus,Ohio(Hydro35andTP40)and
1339 theTypeIIratioforalldurations
Duration Columbus,Ohio TypeIIRatio Average Largestpercent

AverageRatio percent differencefor
differencein anyreturn
Ratio period
5minHydro35 0.150 0.114 31.52 43.39
10minHydro35 0.244 0.201 21.37 25.92
15minHydro35 0.309 0.270 14.54 19.26
30minTP40 0.398 0.380 4.79 10.53
1hrTP40 0.499 0.454 9.98 19.02
2hrTP40 0.593 0.538 10.29 15.24
3hrTP40 0.640 0.595 7.61 14.29
6hrTP40 0.763 0.707 7.94 10.33
12hrTP40 0.890 0.841 5.77 12.96
24hrTP40 1.000 1.000 0.00 0.00
1340
1341 TheanalysessofarshowhowtheTypeIIdistributioncomparestoHydro35andTP40
1342 data.ArainfalldistributiondevelopedfromHydro35andTP40forColumbus,Ohio
1343 wouldproducehigherpeakdischargesthantheTypeIIbecausetheratiosfordurations
1344 from5minutesto12hoursarehigherforHydro35andTP40data.Thepercentageof
1345 increaseinpeakdischargewouldbedifferentforthevariousreturnperiods.The
1346 recommendedprocedurenowthatNOAAAtlas14dataareavailableistodevelopa
1347 rainfalldistributionforeachlocationandforeachreturnperiod.Thiswillinsurethatall
1348 shorterdurationswillhavethecorrectrainfallappliedtothewatershed.
1349 ThefollowingtableforColumbus,OhiowasdownloadedfromtheNOAA/NWSwebsite
1350 forNOAAAtlas14.
1351
1352
64
andDistribution
1353 Figure4A2.NOAAAtlas14partialdurationprecipitationfrequencydatafor
1354 ColumbusOhio
1355
1356
1357 The90%confidencelimitsareshowninparenthesesforeachdurationandfrequencyin
1358 thetable.Thereisa90%probabilitythattheactualvaluewillfallwithinthatrange.
1359
1360
65
andDistribution
1361 Table4A5.Ratioofshorterdurationto24hourprecipitationforColumbus,Ohio
1362 (basedonNOAAAtlas14data)

5min 0.160 0.155 0.153 0.146 0.141 0.138
10min 0.252 0.241 0.236 0.225 0.215 0.207
15min 0.305 0.297 0.290 0.277 0.266 0.259
30min 0.408 0.409 0.402 0.392 0.382 0.372
1hr 0.504 0.511 0.512 0.507 0.503 0.498
2hr 0.588 0.598 0.601 0.601 0.600 0.601
3hr 0.622 0.632 0.635 0.640 0.638 0.640
6hr 0.740 0.746 0.751 0.757 0.761 0.768
12hr 0.863 0.867 0.871 0.878 0.883 0.892
24hr 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
1363
1364 Ratiosfor5minutethrough30minutedecreasefromthe2yearto100yearvalues.
1365 Ratiosforthe1hourthrough3hourdurationsarerelativelyconstant.Ratiosfor6hour
1366 and12hourdurationsincreasefromthe2yearto100yearvalues.Thiswouldleadto
1367 slightlydifferentrainfalldistributionsforeachofthereturnperiods.
1368
1369
66
andDistribution
1370 Table4A6.DifferencebetweenNOAAAtlas14andHydro35/TP40rainfallfor
1371 Columbus,Ohio

Differen Difference Difference Difference Difference Difference
ce
5minHydro
35 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03
10min 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.07 0.09
15min 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.09 0.12 0.15
30minTP40 0.05 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.00
1hr 0.06 0.05 0.11 0.10 0.13 0.11
2hr 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.17 0.17 0.29
3hr 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.04 0.21 0.21
6hr 0.01 0.04 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.43
12hr 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.44 0.28
24hr 0.02 0.07 0.07 0.14 0.33 0.64
1372
1373 Thedifferencesfor2yearto10yearandarerelativelysmall.NOAAAtlas14haslarger
1374 precipitationfor25yearto100year1hourto24hourdurations.
1375
1376
67
andDistribution
1377 Appendix4B.SmoothingvaluesfromNOAAAtlas14
1378
1379 Background
1380 Usinga24hourdesignstormdistributionisstandardpracticeinWinTR20,WinTR55,
1381 andEngineeringFieldHandbook,Chapter2EstimatingrunoffandPeakDischarge(EFH
1382 2).InordertobestreflecttheupdatedNOAAAtlas14partialdurationprecipitation
1383 frequencydata,asitespecificdistributionmaybedevelopedbasedonatextfile
1384 downloadedfromtheNOAAAtlas14website.The24hourdesignstormdistributionis
1385 developedbasedonmaximizingtherainfallduringalldurationsfrom5minutesto24
1386 hours.Thedistributioniscenteredon12hourswiththemostintenserainfallinthe
1387 center.Thedurationsfrom5minutesto24hoursarecenteredon12hoursandextend
1388 symmetricallyforperiodsbeforeandafter12hours.
1389
1390 Forexample,themaximum1hourrainfalloccursbetween11.5and12.5hours.The
1391 maximum2hourrainfalloccursbetween11and13hours.Investigationswere
1392 conductedwhichshowedthatregionalstormdistributionssimilartothepriorstandard
1393 NRCSstormdistributions(TypeI,TypeIA,TypeII,andTypeIII)arenotfeasibleinstates
1394 coveredbyNOAAAtlas14(NRCS,July2006,Merkel,Moody,Quan,RainfallDistribution
1395 forStatesCoveredbyNOAAAtlas14Volumes1and2,NRCSinternalpublication).
1396
1397 TheprimaryassumptionofNRCSstormdistributionsisthatthemaximumprecipitationof
1398 allstormdurationsfrom5minutesto24hoursoccurswithinthedesignstorm.The
1399 reasonforthisisthatinasinglestormdistribution,allprecipitationintensitiesare
1400 represented.Thisallowsthedesignstormdistributiontobeusedforwatershedswith
1401 timesofconcentrationfrom5minutesto24hours.Otherwise,theengineerwouldhave
1402 todeveloporselectadesignstormdistributionuniquetothewatershedbeinganalyzed.
1403
68
andDistribution
1404 Annualmaximumrainfallsforeachdurationweretabulatedfortheperiodofrecord.
1405 Maximumprecipitationforeachdurationcouldhappenonanydayoftheyearandoften,
1406 themaximaforvariousdurationswerenotfromthesamestormevent.Forexample,the
1407 maximum5minuteprecipitationandmaximum24hourprecipitationoftheyearmaynot
1408 befromthesamestormevent.Whenplacingthesedurationsintoamaximizedand
1409 centereddesignstormdistribution,irregularitiesmayoccur.AtypicalcaseisSt.George,
1410 Utah.PartoftheNOAAAtlas14partialdurationdataareshowninthefollowingfigure.
1411
1412 EachdurationinNOAAAtlas14wasanalyzedseparately.Forexample,themaximum60
1413 minutevalueforeachyearwasextractedandanalyzedforprecipitationfrequency.Then
1414 themaximum2hourvalueforeachyearwasextractedandanalyzedforprecipitation
1415 frequency.Themaximum3hour,6hour,12hour,24houretcwereextractedfromthe
1416 dataandanalyzedseparately.Noattemptwasmadetosmooththesedataacrossthe
1417 seriesofdurationsforeachreturnperiod.Ifdataarenotsmoothed,thereisapossibility
1418 thattheresultingstormdistributionwillnotbesmooth.Thiscanpotentiallycause
1419 irregularitiesinahydrographdevelopedfromthestormdistributionsuchasbumps,
1420 sharprisesanddrops,andmisplacedgradualincreasesordecreases.
1421
1422 Figure4B1.NOAAAtlas14partialdurationdataforSt.George,Utah
1423
69
andDistribution
1424
1425 Anirregularityoccursbetweenthe2hourand3hourdurationsfromthe10yearto500
1426 yearreturnperiods.Consideringthe50yearreturnperiod,theadditionalprecipitation
1427 between2hoursand3hoursis0.05inches(anintensityofonly0.05inches/hour).The
1428 additionalprecipitationfrom3hoursto6hoursis0.30inches(anintensityof0.10
1429 inches/hour).Theprecipitationintensityforallotherdurationsgenerallydecreasesas
1430 thedurationincreases.Theprecipitationfrequencyforeachdurationisbasedonactual
1431 measurements.Themajorproblemisthatwhensettingupamaximizeddesignstorm
1432 distribution,whenthistypeofintensityreversaloccurs,thehydrographgeneratedbythe
1433 stormdistributionhasanirregularshape(mostlyevidentinsignificantdipsinthe
1434 hydrographbeforeandafterthepeak).TheplotofahydrographusingtheSt.Georgedata
1435 fora500yearreturnperiodisshowninfigure4B2.
1436
1437 Figure4B2.HydrographbasedonSt.George,Utahrainfalldata
1438
1439 Thehydrographrisesslightlybetween13.0and15.0hours.Usingthezoomfeaturemakes
1440 thismoreobvious.
1441
70
andDistribution
1442 Figure4B3.ZoomoftheHydrographbasedonSt.George,Utahrainfalldata
1443 between13.0and15.0hours
1444
1445
1446 Comparinghydrographsgeneratedbyoriginalandsmootheddataindicatethatwiththe
1447 smootheddata,peakdischargesmayvarybyasmuchasplusorminus15%(basedon15
1448 testlocations).Itisthereforeuptotheengineerwhethersmoothingofthedatais
1449 importantornot.Incertaincases,thehydrographshapeappearscompletely
1450 unreasonable.Inthesecases,smoothingtheprecipitationdataiswarranted.Suchacase
1451 isshowninthefollowingfigureshowingahydrographgeneratedforahypothetical
1452 watershedintheUSVirginIslandsusingnonsmoothdata.
1453
71
andDistribution
1454 Figure4B4.Hydrographwithunsmootheddata
1455
1456
1457 DataSmoothingTechnique
1458 Severalmathematicaltechniqueswereinvestigatedtodetermineacomputationally
1459 efficient,accurate,practical,stable,androbustprocedure.Sincethegenerated
1460 hydrographisprimarilydependentontherelationshipofprecipitationintensitywith
1461 duration,thisrelationshipiswhatissmoothed.
1462
1463 Therelationshipofintensity(inches/hour)anddurationisbasedonafactordefinedas
1464 incrementalintensity.Incrementalintensityisdefinedasthedifferenceinprecipitation
1465 dividedbythedifferenceinduration.Theincrementalintensityforthe5minuteduration
1466 isequaltothe5minuteprecipitationdividedby1/12andhastheunitsofinchesperhour
1467 (ormm/hourinmetricunits).Theincrementalintensityforthe10minutedurationisthe
1468 10minuteprecipitationminusthe5minuteprecipitationdividedby1/12(thedifference
1469 between5and10minutesinunitsofhours).Eachincrementalintensityiscalculated
1470 basedonthedifferenceinprecipitationdividedbythedifferenceinduration.Incremental
1471 intensityiscalculatedandsmoothedforeachreturnperiodindependently.
72
andDistribution
1472
1473 Plottingthisrelationshiponaloglogscale,itmaybeastraightline,haveslightcurvature,
1474 orhaveseveraldipsorwaves.Examplesofthesenonsmoothedplotsfollow.
1475
1476 Figure4B5.PlotforSunCity,CAnotsmoothbetween10minutesand6hours
1477
1478
1479
73
andDistribution
1480 Figure4B6.Acurvewithirregularitiesat15minutesand3hoursforMercer
1481 County,NJ
1482
1483
1484
74
andDistribution
1485
1486 Figure4B7.AveryirregularplotofincrementalintensityforBethlehemUpper
1487 Works,USVirginIslands
1488
1489 Thesmoothingprocedurekeepsthe60minuteand24hourprecipitationunchanged
1490 fromtheoriginalNOAAAtlas14partialdurationvalues.5,10,15,30,and2,3,6,and12
1491 hourvaluesareopentoadjustment.Astraightlineontheloglogplotextendsfrom5
1492 minuteto60minutedurations.Thelineisplacedsuchthatthesquareddifference
1493 betweenthesmoothed5minute,10minute,15minute,and30minuteincremental
1494 intensityvaluesandtheoriginalvaluesisminimizedandthe60minuteprecipitationis
1495 equaltotheoriginalvalue.Asecondstraightlinesegmentontheloglogplotextends
1496 fromthe60minutevaluetothe24hourvalue.Thislineisplacedsuchthatthe
1497 incrementalintensityfor60minutedurationisthesameascalculatedforthefirstline
1498 segmentandthe60minuteand24hourprecipitationvaluesareunchanged.Calculating
1499 theadjustedvaluesofprecipitationinvolvesatrialanderroroptimizationprocedure.The
1500 smoothingalgorithmissetupinaspreadsheetandprogrammedinWinTR20.Three
1501 examplesfollow.
1502
75
andDistribution
1504 MercerCounty,NJ.,
1505 smoothandoriginalplots
1506
1507
1508
1509
76
andDistribution
1511 Phoenix,AZ
1512
1513
1514
77
andDistribution
1515 Figure4B10.25yearincrementalintensityplotfororiginalandsmootheddata
1516 forBethlehemUpperWorks,USVirginIslands
1517
1518 Theplotofhydrographsbasedonoriginalnonsmootheddata(25_yr_stm)andsmoothed
1519 data(25_yr_sm)forthethreeexamplesfollow.
1520
78
andDistribution
1521 Figure4B11.25yearhydrographplotsforMercerCo.,NJ
1522
1523 Theredhydrograph(stm)infigure4B11isbasedontheoriginaldata.Thegreen
1524 hydrograph(sm)isbasedonthesmootheddata.Inthiscase,thedifferencebetweenthe
1525 twoisnotsignificant.SmoothingofNOAAAtlas14datawouldnotreallybeneededhere.
1526
79
andDistribution
1527 Figure4B12.25yearhydrographplotsforPhoenix,AZ
1528
1529
1530 Theredhydrograph(stm)isbasedontheoriginaldata.Thegreenhydrograph(sm)is
1531 basedonthesmootheddata.Inthiscase,thetwoaresomewhatdifferent.Betweenabout
1532 18and24hoursthehydrographbasedontheoriginaldataextendsflatto24hours.
1533
1534
80
andDistribution
1535 Figure4B13.25yearhydrographplotsforBethlehemUpperWorks,USVirgin
1536 Islands
1537
1538 Theredhydrograph(stm)isbasedontheoriginaldata.Thegreenhydrograph(sm)is
1539 basedonthesmootheddata.Inthiscase,thetwoaresignificantlydifferent.Atabout11
1540 and14hours,thereareslightdipsinthehydrographbasedontheoriginaldata.These
1541 havebeeneliminatedinthehydrographbasedonthesmoothedNOAAAtlas14data.
1542
1543 ConclusionandSummary
1544 InWinTR20,theuserhastheoptiontodevelopstormdistributionsbasedontheoriginal
1545 NOAAAtlas14dataorsmootheddata.Asummaryfileisdevelopediftheuserchoosesto
1546 smooththeNOAAAtlas14data.ThisfilecontainstheoriginalNOAAAtlas14
1547 precipitationdata,thesmootheddata,incrementalintensityforboth,anddifference
1548 betweentheNOAAAtlas14dataandthesmootheddata.Thenameofthefilehasthe
1549 sameastheNOAAAtlas14textfileexcepttheextensionischangedto.dff(torepresent
1550 thedifference).Partofanexamplefileisincludedasfollows.
1551
1552 InthefollowingtableforBethlehemUpperWorksinUSVirginIslands,theincremental
1553 intensityincreasesfrom10to15minutesandfrom3to6hours.Sincetheincremental
81
andDistribution
1554 intensityshoulddecreasefrom5minutesto24hours,thisisanexamplewheredata
1555 smoothingisneeded.
1556
1557 Figure4B14.Tableshowingintensityreversals
1558
1559
1560 Thefirstlineinthetable(Duration)liststheprecipitationdurations.Thesecondlinein
1561 thetable(Precip)liststheoriginalNOAAAtlas14precipitationdata.Thethirdline
1562 (Inc_Int)istheincrementalintensityfortheoriginalNOAAAtlas14precipitationdata.
1563 Thefourthline(Sm_Precip)isthesmoothedprecipitationvalues(noticethe60minand
1564 24hourvaluesareunchanged).Thefifthlineistheincrementalintensityforthe
1565 smoothedprecipitationdata(Sm_Inc_Int).Thesixthlineisthedifferencebetweenthe
1566 NOAAAtlas14precipitationandthesmoothedvalues(Precip_diff).
1567
1568 Intestingwheretheseirregularitiesoccur,thestatescoveredbyNOAAAtlas14Volume1
1569 (semiaridsouthwest),Volume3(PuertoRicoandUSVirginIslands),Volume4(Hawaiian
1570 Islands),Volume5(PacificIslands),Volume6(California),andAlaska(Volume7)show
1571 themostneedforthedatatobesmoothedinordertoproducerelativelysmooth
1572 hydrographs.StatescoveredbyNOAAAtlas14Volume2(OhioRiverBasin)showalesser
1573 degreeofthisirregularityofprecipitationintensity.
1574
82
andDistribution
1575 Appendix4C.Developmentof24hourrainfalldistribution
1576 fromNOAAAtlas145minutethrough24hourvalues.
1577
1578 Thisappendixcoverstheproceduretodevelopa24hourrainfalldistributionfromaset
1579 ofdatafrom5minutesthrough24hours.Thisprocedureisrepeatedforeachreturn
1580 periodfrom1yearto500years.ThefollowingprocedureisincorporatedintotheNRCS
1581 hydrologicmodelWinTR20.
1582 Inputtothisprocedureconsistsofprecipitationvaluesfor5,10,15,30,and60minutes
1583 and2,3,6,12,and24hourdurations.Thesemaybesmoothedorunsmoothed(see
1584 Appendix4B).
1585 Step1.Calculateratiosofshorterdurationto24hourprecipitation.Theexampleinthis
1586 appendixappliestothe25yearreturnperiod.Table4C1includesduration,precipitation
1587 valuesandcalculatedratiostothe24hourvalue.
1588
1589 Table4C1.Duration,precipitation,andratiovalues
Duration 5min 10 15 30 60 2hr 3hr 6hr 12hr 24

min min min min hr
Precipitati 0.65 1.00 1.23 1.74 2.26 2.67 2.84 3.36 3.90
oninches 4.4
4
Ratioto 0.146 0.225 0.277 0.391 0.509 0.601 0.639 0.756 0.878 1.0
24hr 4 2 0 9 0 4 6 8 4 0
1590
1591 Step2.Calculateapreliminaryrainfalldistributionbasedontheratiosfromtable4C1.
1592 Table4C2showsthetimeinclockhours,timeindecimalhours,andpreliminary
1593 cumulativerainfallratio.
1594
83
andDistribution
1595 Table4C2.Cumulativeratiovalues
Clocktime Timehours Cumulativeratio

0:00 0.0 0.0
6:00 6.0 0.0608
9:00 9.0 0.1216
10:30 10.5 0.1802
11:00 11.0 0.1993
11:30 11.5 0.2455
11:45 11.75 0.3041
11:52:30 11.875 0.3615
11:55 11.9167 0.3874
1596
1597 Sincetherainfalldistributionissymmetricalabout12hours,the12hr/24hrratiois
1598 placedfrom6hoursto18hoursofthe24hourrainfalldistribution.Thecumulativeratio
1599 at6:00ofthepreliminarydistributionis0.5(12hr/24hrratio)/2or0.5(0.8784)/2.
1600 The6hr/24hrratioisplacedfrom9hoursto15hoursofthe24hourrainfall
1601 distribution.Thecumulativeratioat9:00ofthepreliminarydistributionis0.5(6hr/24
1602 hrratio)/2or0.5(0.7568)/2.The10minute/24hourratioisusedtocalculatethe
1603 cumulativeratioat11:55.The5minute/24hourratioisusedinstep6below.
1604
1605 Table4C2becomesthebasisforinterpolatingarainfalldistributionfor24hoursata
1606 timeincrementof0.1hour.
1607
1608 Step3.Determinecumulativeratiosfortimesfrom0.0to11.5hours.Itmightseem
1609 logicaltointerpolatetheratiosatthesetimestepslinearlyfromthepreliminaryrainfall
1610 distributionintable4C2.Ifthatisdone,therewillbeirregularitiesinthehydrograph
1611 developedfromtherainfalldistribution.Theseirregularitiesincludesharpchangesin
1612 dischargeatrainfalldistributionbreakpoints(suchas6and9hours)andgradual
1613 increasesindischargeonthefallingtailofthehydrograph.Forthesereasons,atrialand
84
andDistribution
1614 errornumericalschemewasdevelopedsuchthattherainfallintensitygraduallyand
1615 constantlyincreasesbetween0and11.5hoursyetstillmatchestheratiosat6.0,9.0,10.5,
1616 and11.0hoursintable4C2ascloselyaspossible.Theratioat11.5isforcedtomatchthe
1617 ratiointhepreliminaryrainfalldistributiontable4C2.Theslopeoftherainfall
1618 distribution(nondimensionalintensity)isestimatedattimesof0.0,6,9,10.5,11,and
1619 11.5hours.Atintermediatetimes(suchas6.1to8.9hours)theslopeislinearly
1620 interpolatedtoproduceagraduallyincreasingslopebetweenbreakpoints.
1621
1622 Step4.Determinecumulativeratiosfortimesfrom11.6to11.9hours.
1623 Ratio(11.6)=Ratio(11.5)+0.38*(Ratio(11.75)Ratio(11.5))
1624 Ratio(11.7)=Ratio(11.5)+0.78*(Ratio(11.75)Ratio(11.5))
1625 Ratio(11.8)=Ratio(11.75)+(11.811.75)/(11.87511.75)*(Ratio(11.875)
1626 Ratio(11.75))
1627 Ratio(11.9)=Ratio(11.875)+(11.911.875)/(11.916711.875)*(Ratio
1628 (11.9167)Ratio(11.875))
1629
1630 Step5.Determinecumulativeratiosfortimesfrom12.1to24hours.Sincetherainfall
1631 distributionissymmetricalthecumulativeratiosfrom12.1hoursto24hoursarebased
1632 onthecumulativeratiosfrom0.0to11.9hours.Thecumulativeratioat12.1hoursis1.0
1633 thecumulativeratioat11.9hours.Thecumulativeratioat12.2hoursis1.0the
1634 cumulativeratioat11.8hours.Thiscontinuesallthewayto24hours(wherethe24hour
1635 cumulativeratiois1.00.0or1.0).
1636
1637 Step6.Determinecumulativeratiofortime12.0hours.Sincetherainfalldistributionis
1638 developedatatimeincrementof0.1hour(6minutes),the5minute/24hourand10
1639 minute/24hourratiosareusedtocalculatethemaximum6minuterainfallratio.
85
andDistribution
1640 6min/24hrratio=5min/24hrratio+0.2*(10min/24hrratio5min/24
1641 hrratio)
1642
1643 The6minute/24hourrainfallratioissubtractedfromthecumulativeratioat12.1hours
1644 inordertodefineacumulativeratioat12.0hours.Bymakingthisadjustment,the
1645 maximum5minuterainfallratioisrepresentedinthefinalrainfalldistribution.
1646
1647 InWinTR20,thisprocedureiscompletedforallreturnperiodsfrom1yearto500years.
1648 Eachreturnperiodwillhaveadistinctrainfalldistribution.
1649
1650 ThisprocedurewassetupinaMicrosoftExcelspreadsheetthenprogrammedforWinTR
1651 20.DetailsonthemathematicalsolutionareincludedinthespreadsheetandFortran
1652 computercode.
1653
86
andDistribution
1654 Appendix4D.Determining10dayprecipitationforthestates
1655 ofCO,ID,MT,OR,WA,andWY.
1656
1657 In1975,theSCSWestRegionalTechnicalServiceCenterreleasedTechnicalNote
1658 HydrologyPO6whichincludesaproceduretodeterminethe10dayprecipitationfor11
1659 westernstates(NRCS,1975).The10dayrainfallvaluesarebasedonNOAAAtlas2data
1660 whichiscurrentlythemostrecentrainfallfrequencyinformationforthestatesof
1661 Colorado,Idaho,Montana,Oregon,Washington,andWyoming.WhenNOAAAtlas14is
1662 completedforthesestates,proceduresandinformationinNOAAAtlas14shouldbeused
1663 insteadofthisappendix.
1664
1665 TheprecipitationfrequencymapsinNWSTechnicalPaperNo.49,TwotoTenDay
1666 PrecipitationforReturnPeriodsfrom2to100Yearsshouldnotbeusedtoestimatethe
1667 10dayprecipitationinthestatesofCO,ID,MT,OR,WA,andWY.Thefollowingprocedure
1668 shouldbeusedtoestimatethe10dayprecipitationforvariousfrequenciesorreturn
1669 periods.
1670
1671 1. Selectthe2year,6and24hourprecipitationamountsfromtheNOAAAtlas2maps.
1672 Uselinearinterpolationbetweenisopluviallines.
1673 2. Selecttheappropriateregionfromfigure4D1.
1674
87
andDistribution
1675 Figure4D1.MapfromNOAAAtlas2showingregionsforNYear1hourrelations
1676 inelevenwesternstates
1677
1678
88
andDistribution
1679 Table4D1.Listofequationsfordetermining2year1hourprecipitationvalues
1680 Region1:2yr1hr=0.028+0.890(2yr6hr)2/(2yr24hr)
1688
1689 3. Estimatethe2year,1hourprecipitationusingtheequationsinTable4D1andthe
1690 6hourand24houramountsselectedinstep1above.
1691
1692 4. Estimatethe2year,10dayprecipitationamountsfromfigure4D2.
1693
89
andDistribution
1694 Figure4D2.Relationforestimating2year10dayprecipitationfrom2year1
1695 and24hourrainfallandlatitude
1696
1697 5. Estimatethe100year/2year10dayprecipitationratiofromfigure4D2.
1698
1699
90
andDistribution
1700 Figure4D3.Ratiosof100year10dayprecipitationto2Year10dayprecipitation
1701
1702
1703 6. Multiplythe2year,10dayprecipitationamountby0.88toconvertfrompartial
1704 durationseriestoannualseriesnormallyused.
1705
1706 7. Plotthe2yearand100yearprecipitationamountsonlognormalprobabilitypaper
1707 toobtainprecipitationamountsforotherreturnperiods.
1708
91
andDistribution
1709 Figure4D4canbeusedtoobtainprecipitationamountsfordurationsbetween2and
1710 10days.
1711
1712 Figure4D4.Durationinterpolationdiagram
1713
1714 Table23inNRCSTR60(2005)canbeusedtoobtainarealcorrectionfactorsfor10day
1715 precipitationamountsforvarioussizewatershedswhendevelopingtheprincipalspillway
1716 masscurveorhydrograph.Figure4D5showstheDepthareacurvesofNWSTechnical
1717 Paper49canbeusedtoobtainarealcorrectionfactorsfor1through10dayduration
1718 stormsforotherpurposes.
1719
92
andDistribution
1720 Figure4D5.Depthareacurves
1721
1722 Example4D1Estimationof10dayprecipitationforBoiseWatershed
1723
1724 1. Select2year6hrand24hrprecipitationvaluesusingNOAAAtlas2forIdaho.The
1725 2yr6hrprecipitationis0.8inchesandthe2yr24hrprecipitationis1.6inches.
1726
1727 2. Thewatershedislocatedinregion3offigure4D1.
1728
1729 3. Determine2yr1hramountusingequation3inTable4D1.
1730 2yr1hr=0.077+0.715(0.8)2/1.6=0.36inches
1731
1732 4. Estimate2yr10dayamountusingfigure4D2.The2yr10dayprecipitationis
1733 3.1inches
1734
93
andDistribution
1735 5. Estimate100yr10day/2yr10dayratiousingfigure4D3.Thevalueis2.0.
1736
1737 6. Estimatethe100yr10dayamount.Multiply3.1times2.0toget6.2inches.
1738
1739 7. Estimate2yr10dayamount.Multiply3.1times0.88toget2.7inches.
1740
1741 8. Plotthe2yearand100year10dayprecipitationamountsonlognormal
1742 probabilitypapertointerpolateprecipitationvaluesforotherreturnperiods(see
1743 figure4D6).
1744
1745
94
andDistribution
1746 Figure4D6.Plotof10dayprecipitation
1747
1748
1749
95
andDistribution
1750 Table4D2.ReturnperiodsandPrecipitationvalues
Returnperiod Precipitationinches
10yr 4.2
25yr 5.0
50yr 5.6
1751
1752 Thesearepointvaluesof10dayprecipitation.Ifthedrainageareaofthewatershedis
1753 morethan10squaremiles,the10dayprecipitationvaluesshouldbereduced.
1754
96
andDistribution
1755 Appendix4E.Determiningadesignrainfalldistributionfora
1756 regionbasedonGISdata.
1757
1758 Eventhoughtherecommendedmethodfordevelopingarainfalldistributionisonasite
1759 bysitebasiswithauniquedistributionforeachreturnperiod,therearetimeswhena
1760 rainfalldistributioncoveringageographicareaisdesirable.
1761
1762 PrepareGISdatalayerstoincludeabasemaporshapefileofstate/countyboundariesand
1763 rainfalldataatdurationsfrom5minutesto24hoursforthereturnperiodsofinterest.
1764
1765 Developratiosofthe5minute/24hour,10minute/24hour,etc,uptothe12hour/24
1766 hourdurationforreturnperiodsofinterestusingGISgridlayersfortheprojectarea.If
1767 usingESRI(EnvironmentalSystemsResearchInstitute,2010)GISsoftware,usethe
1768 SpatialAnalystMathcommands.
1769
1770 Decidewhichreturnperiodisthemostimportantonwhichtobasetheregionalrainfall
1771 distribution.
1772
1773 Dependingonthepurposeofthestudy,eitherdecideontheregiontodevelopasingle
1774 rainfalldistributionordecidehowmanyrainfalldistributionsaredesiredwithinacertain
1775 geographicarea.Forexample,perhapsanaveragerainfalldistributionisdesiredfora
1776 singlestate.Anotherexamplecouldbetodevelopanumberofrainfalldistributionregions
1777 foragivenstateorgroupofstates.Dependingonthisdecision,differentproceduresare
1778 usedfromthispoint.
1779
97
andDistribution
1780 Ifanaveragerainfalldistributionisdesiredforasinglestate,usetheESRISpatialAnalyst
1781 commandstodeterminethezonalstatisticsforareaswithinthestateboundary.The
1782 zonalstatisticscommandwillproducethemean,maximum,minimum,andrangeofthe
1783 ratiosforeachdurationwithintheselectedreturnperiod(suchas25year).Oncethese
1784 meansarecomputed,compilethemeanratiosfor5minutesthrough12hoursandbuilda
1785 rainfalldistributionbasedonprinciplesdescribedinthischapter.Theseprinciplesmay
1786 includesmoothingtheratiosbeforebuildingtherainfalldistribution.
1787
1788 Forthesecondprojecttype(divideageographicareaintoanumberofrainfall
1789 distributionregions),firstdecideonthemostimportantdurationratioonwhichtobase
1790 theboundariesoftherainfallregions,suchasthe60minute/24hourratio.Analyzethe
1791 selectedratiomapanddeterminethemaximumandminimumratios.Thendividethe
1792 rangeofratiosintoanappropriatenumberofregions.Forexample,iftherangeof60
1793 minute/24hourratioisfrom0.3to0.5,alogicalprocedurewouldbetobreaktheareaup
1794 into4rainfalldistributionregionsbasedonratiosfrom0.3to0.35,0.35to0.4,0.4,to0.45,
1795 and0.45to0.5.TodothisanalysisusingESRItools,usetheSpatialAnalystReclassify
1796 commandandsetthelimitsofeachclasstothedesiredintervalssuchasregion1with
1797 ratioslessthan0.35,region2withratiosbetween0.35and0.4,region3withratios
1798 between0.4and0.45,andregion4withratiosgreaterthan0.45.Convertthis
1799 reclassifiedGISlayerintoapolygonshapefile(wheretheboundariesfollowthefour
1800 rainfalldistributionregions).Iftheboundariesaresatisfactory,proceedtothenextstep.
1801 Iftheboundariesarenotreasonable,resetthenumberofregionsand/ortheratiolimits
1802 foreachregionandreclassifyagain.
1803
1804 Thisanalysiswilldefinetheregionalboundariesonly.Tobuildarainfalldistributionfor
1805 eachoftheseregions,ratiosof5minute/24houruptothe12hour/24hourratioare
1806 required.IfusingESRIGISsoftware,usetheSpatialAnalystZonalStatisticsasaTable
1807 command.Usethiscommandforeachdurationratioandtheregionaldistributionmap
1808 (shapefile)todeterminethemeanratioforeachdurationwithineachregion.
98
andDistribution
1809
1810 Oncetheratiosforeachdurationhavebeencomputed,theratiosmaybesmoothedanda
1811 rainfalldistributiondevelopedbasedonprinciplesoutlinedinthischapter.
1812
1813 Thesecondprojecttype(divideageographicareaintoanumberofrainfalldistribution
1814 regions),wasusedtodevelopfourrainfalldistributionregionsforthestatescoveredby
1815 NOAAAtlas14Volume2,OhioValleyandneighboringstates.
1816
1817 TheintendedpurposeoftherainfalldistributionswastousethemintheEngineering
1818 FieldHandbookChapter2,EstimatingRunoffandPeakDischarges(EFH2)computer
1819 program.The25yearfrequencywasusedasthebasisfortherainfalldistributionbecause
1820 manyconservationpracticesaredesignedforthe25yearreturnperiodstorm.
1821
1822 TheGISdataforthe5minutethrough24hourdurationsweredownloadedfromthe
1823 NOAAAtlas14websiteandpreparedusingESRIsoftware.Abasemapofstatesand
1824 countieswaspreparedinthesameGISmapprojection.Ratiosof5minute/24hour,10
1825 minute/24hour,etcratiosweredeterminedusingESRISpatialAnalystcommands.
1826
1827 The60minute/24hourratiowasusedtodeterminetheboundariesoftherainfall
1828 distributionregions.Thiswasselectedbecausethe5minutethrough30minuterainfall
1829 valuesaredeterminedbasedonapercentageofthe60minuterainfall.Sotheboundaries
1830 developedusingthe60minuteratioshouldbegenerallyconsistentwiththeboundaries
1831 developedbyusinganydurationbetween5minutesand30minutes.Manywatersheds
1832 whereEFH2isappliedhavetimeofconcentrationslessthan60minutes.Intheseways,
1833 therainfalldistributionisdevelopedbasedonreturnperiodfordesignandwatershed
1834 characteristics.
1835
99
andDistribution
1836 The60minute/24hourratiorangedfrom0.28to0.58andwasreclassifiedinto4
1837 regionswithratiosof60minute/24hourratiosoflessthan0.38,0.38to0.43,0.43to
1838 0.48,andgreaterthan0.48.Thisanalysisproducedthefollowingmap.
1839
1840 Figure4E1.NOAAAtlas14Volume2region,easternstates,rainfalldistribution
1841 regions
1842
1843
1844
1845 RegionAhas60minute24hourratiosgreaterthan0.48,RegionBhasratiosbetween
1846 0.43and0.48,RegionChasratiosbetween0.38and0.43,andRegionDhasratiosless
1847 than0.38.
100
andDistribution
1848 Figure4E2.NOAAAtlas14Volume2region,westernstates,rainfalldistribution
1849 regions
1850
1851 Thenextstepwastodeterminethemeanratioof5minutes/24hourratioto12hour/
1852 24hourineachofthefourregions.
1853 ThefollowingtablewasdevelopedusingESRISpatialAnalystcommands.
1854
101
andDistribution
1855 Table4E1.MeanratiosforfourrainfalldistributionregionsNOAAAtlas14,Ohio
1856 Valleyandneighboringstates.
Durationratio RegionA RegionB RegionC RegionD
5min/24hr 0.143 0.121 0.105 0.094
10min/24hr 0.219 0.189 0.166 0.149
15min/24hr 0.272 0.237 0.210 0.188
30min/24hr 0.386 0.344 0.308 0.276
60min/24hr 0.502 0.453 0.409 0.366
120min/24hr 0.594 0.543 0.500 0.454
3hr/24hr 0.635 0.585 0.545 0.501
6hr/24hr 0.749 0.705 0.672 0.636
12hr/24hr 0.864 0.840 0.823 0.805
1857
1858 RegionAhasthemostintenserainfalldistributionandRegionDhastheleastintense
1859 rainfalldistribution.
1860
1861 WinTR20willbothsmoothrainfalldataanddeveloparainfalldistributionwithratio
1862 datasuchascontainedintable4E1.Inordertodothis,aNOAAAtlas14textfileatany
1863 randomlocationcanbeeditedtoincludeonecolumnintable4E1.
1864
1865 Sincethedataarenondimensional,theymaybemultipliedby10(oranyothernumber)
1866 andenteredintheNOAAAtlas14textfile.Thenumber10ispracticalbecausethe5min/
1867 24hrratioof0.143becomes1.43andtheratioforthe24hourrainfallbecomes10.00.
1868 Theratiosaretreatedasrainfallinunitsofinches.
102
andDistribution
1869
1870 TheWinTR20NOAAAtlas14smoothingoutputfilewillshowtowhatdegreetheoriginal
1871 ratiosarenonsmooth.WinTR20willdevelopa24ourrainfalldistributionatatime
1872 intervalof0.1hours.TherainfalldistributionsforRegionA(mostintenserainfall
1873 distribution)andRegionD(leastintenserainfalldistribution)areplottedforcomparison
1874 againsttheTypeIIandTypeIIIinfigure4E3.TheRegionAdistributionisslightlymore
1875 intensethantheTypeIIandtheRegionDdistributionisslightlylessintensethanthe
1876 TypeIII.
1877
1878 Figure4E3.PlotofNOAAAtlas14RegionsAandDrainfalldistributionscompared
1879 toTypeIIandTypeIII.
1880
1881
103
andDistribution
1882 TherainfalldistributionmaybeusedtocomputepeakdischargesbothinWinTR20and
1883 WinTR55.ToderivepeakdischargecurvesforuseinEFH2,WinTR20isrunforarange
1884 ofIa/Pratiosandtimeofconcentrations.
104

Storm Rainfall Depth and Distribution

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Storm Rainfall Depth and Distribution

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1 UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgriculture

RainfallLimits Rainfall Numberof Percentofarea Weight

RainfallLimits Rainfall Numberof Percentofarea Weight

RainGageID Measuredrainfall,in Thiessenweight Weightedrainfall,in

Figures418 (418) (419) (420) (421) Total

Percentage 3.30 28.60 0.00 15.00 10.46

Actualtime, Timefrom Hourly Accumulated Accumulated TypeII

Durationmin 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr

Durationhr 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr

Duration 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr

Duration Columbus,Ohio TypeIIRatio Average Largestpercent

Duration 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr

Duration 2yr 5yr 10yr 25yr 50yr 100yr

Duration 5min 10 15 30 60 2hr 3hr 6hr 12hr 24

Clocktime Timehours Cumulativeratio

Durationratio RegionA RegionB RegionC RegionD

5min/24hr 0.143 0.121 0.105 0.094

10min/24hr 0.219 0.189 0.166 0.149

15min/24hr 0.272 0.237 0.210 0.188

30min/24hr 0.386 0.344 0.308 0.276

60min/24hr 0.502 0.453 0.409 0.366

120min/24hr 0.594 0.543 0.500 0.454

3hr/24hr 0.635 0.585 0.545 0.501

6hr/24hr 0.749 0.705 0.672 0.636

12hr/24hr 0.864 0.840 0.823 0.805

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