Progress in Physical Geography 26,2 (2002) pp.

290301

Hydrology: the changing paradigm

Nicholas J. Clifford
School of Geography, University of Nottingham, University Park, Nottingham
NG7 2RD, UK

In common with the earth sciences, hydrology has an interesting classical and medieval
parentage, motivated by practical as well as philosophical concerns with the origins
and agency of water (Biswas, 1970). More formally, hydrology is an established
twentieth-century environmental science, whose content is necessarily interdisciplinary
(spanning civil engineering, biology, chemistry, physics, geomorphology and, increas-
ingly, the social environmental sciences such as planning, economics and political
conflict resolution), yet whose identity is maintained internationally by a strong insti-
tutional structure. In 1922, the International Association of Scientific Hydrology
(renamed the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in 1974) was
established as the hydrological section of the International Union of Geodesy and
Geophysics, concerned with the study of the circulation and distribution of water in the
natural environment (Gurnell, 1994). By the 1940s, hydrology was firmly established as
a professional discipline with a burgeoning supply of textbooks to support teaching
within the universities as well as practice in government agencies (Shaw, 1994). Four-
yearly General Assemblies within the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
(IUGG), together with Scientific Assemblies in between, have maintained both
academic and applied hydrological discourse at an international level, assisted by other
international agencies such as the United Nations (UN) and World Meteorological
Organization (WMO). The International Hydrological Decade became the International
Hydrological Programme of UNESCO in 1975, and is now in its fifth phase; and the
WMOs Hydrology and Water Resources Programme is 40 years old.

I The structure of the contemporary discipline

Traditionally, hydrology has been subdivided into two parts. Physical hydrology
focuses upon the understanding of the hydrological system and the techniques
required to predict and model physical processes. Applied hydrology focuses upon the
management of water resources, as affected by the increasing demands of human

Arnold 2002 10.1191/0309133302pp337p r

 N.J. Clifford 291

population increase and economic sophistication. While hydrology today maintains

these traditions, the duality is less clear. The structure of contemporary hydrology is
indicated in Table 1, where the many subdivisions of the discipline in major academic
outlets and organizations is recorded.
The increased range of hydrological activity has required new forms of academic
support. From October 2000, Hydrological Processes (a journal that itself has reached 18
issues per year) has incorporated HP Today, a section devoted to invited commentaries,
book and software reviews, letters, scientific briefings and conference listings. A
current awareness section also provides basic listings of journal articles broken down
by the subject grouping listed in Table 1. Today, of course, the health (or otherwise?) of
disciplines is, perhaps, judged as much by their presence on the World Wide Web
(WWW) as by published output. Around 90 sites of reference, institutions and
publishers are listed in HP Today, among the most important being the Hydrology Web
(//terrassa.pnl.gov:2080/hydroweb.html) and the IAHS Hyperlinks in Hydrology
(www.WLU.CA/~wwwiahs/index.html). Clearly, hydrology has greatly enlarged its
compass, but some hydrologists are uncomfortable with the pace, trajectory and
eventual destination of the discipline.

Table 1 Subdivisions of hydrology in leading academic journals

IAHS Handbook 1999 Water Resources Hydrological Processes

2003 Research (current awareness)

International Subsurface hydrology Methodology and

Commissions on: techniques
Surface water and
Surface water climate Hydrometeorology and
the impacts of climatic
Groundwater Erosion, sedimentation change
and geomorphology
Continental erosion Watershed hydrology
and surface hydraulics
Snow and ice Hydrogeochemistry
and water chemistry Geochemistry and
Water quality solute transport
Water policy,
Water resource systems economics and systems Sediments and
analysis geomorphology
Remote sensing
Ecohydrology and
Atmospheresoil water management
vegetation relations
Groundwater
Tracers
292 Hydrology: the changing paradigm

II The contested hydrological paradigm

Paradoxically for such a visible science, there are longstanding fears as to its scientific
evolution. The 1980s and early 1990s saw debates concerning the scientific credentials
of hydrology. While some argued that the nature and pace of human modification of the
water cycle, together with the enormous expansion in the technologies of data capture
and manipulation, were enough to warrant a change in philosophy within the subject
(Shaw, 1994), others emphasized caution and the need to retrench around core basic
science training, specialization in one of the areas of hydrology (including field and
experimental study), and to reduce reliance on mathematical modelling (Nash et al.,
1990). Ten years on, such tensions are again apparent but, now, there is realization that
it is applied science itself that requires definition and prosecution within the discipline.
Under the auspices of the IAHS, there is an ongoing Strategic Science Discussion
mediated through the Vision e-mail list. In one of the commentaries from this (IAHS
Newsletter 68, 2000: 12), the outgoing IAHS President, John C. Rodda notes that, while
many new problems have emerged for hydrology over the last 25 years, some older
ones have not yet been solved, while uncertainty surrounds the future of others. The
scarcity of available water resources and rising devastation from floods and droughts
provide hydrologists with more of a role than ever before, but the links to social science
have, he argues, remained disappointing. He asks, Have the teachings of a new
Gumbel or Sherman launched the science in new directions? I fear not. Could it be that
their modern equivalents have already published papers that are far reaching, but we
have failed to recognize this?. In a follow-up to this, the new President, Kuniyoshi
Takeuchi, also believes that science should be policy relevant and user driven, because,
society can no longer afford science for the sake of science. The latter point may well
be overstated, but his comments on the importance of the transfer of the use of knowledge,
rather than simply the knowledge itself, are more appealing. More compelling, too, is
his vision that: The new millennium begins in the sharp contrast of the light and
shadow of the science achieved in the past . . . What was created by science can only be
solved by science . . . the world is, like it or not, dependent upon science. Hydrology is
the most important part of it. The science programme structure for the sixth Scientific
Assembly of the IAHS at Maastrict this year mirrored these discussions, with its
problem-driven and reflexive emphasis on water-related threats, learning from
experience and evolving ways to cope with a faster-changing global environmental
future. 2000 and 2001 were also marked by several major contributions to the literature
that stress the changing hydrosphere and its implications for a new, translational and
adaptive scientific approach to hydrological systems.

III The changing hydrosphere

William L. Grafs 2001 Presidential Address to the AAG is entitled, Damage control:
restoring the physical integrity of Americas rivers. It contains many telling statistics
for the hydrologist. In little more than a century, over 80 000 dams have segmented
North American streams and fragmented watersheds. While the social and economic
benefits are enormous, Graf argues that the division of physical systems necessitates the
evolution of a science and public policy that admits to this fragmentation and that
 N.J. Clifford 293

pursues geographical representativeness of hydrodiversity, geodiversity and biodiver-

sity. Previous emphasis on integrated hydrological and geomorphological systems
characterized by equilibrium relations is now almost irrelevant. More optimistically,
much could be done to mitigate this situation by shifting present-day water regulatory
regimes so as to introduce a degree of enhanced variability. Thus, rather than necessi-
tating high-profile, but politically compromised programmes of rehabilitation and
restoration, this would be a kind of quiet revolution in which the technicians and
interest groups take control. Because many dams incorporate post-project adjustments
over decadal timescales, even dam removal might create opportunities as, a real-time
experiment to a known perturbation spanning hydrology and ecology from small to
large scale, and from the insignificant to dramatic (Grant, 2001: 1532).
Many similar sentiments underlie Acremans (2000) edited volume on the changing
hydrology of the UK. Not only is the picture of change, fragmentation and threat
depressingly similar, but this book again addresses the emergence of a changing hydro-
logical paradigm that must incorporate the complexities of historic and continuing
transformations of hydrological systems. In a preface to a series of papers devoted to
hydrology and water resources in Japan, Maruyama (2001) also argues for a re-
evaluation of empirical science so as to activate water resources research. In essence,
these and other authors all acknowledge that contemporary hydrology is a discipline
whose knowledge of the physical world has been deepened, but whose transfer of
knowledge between and across many case studies in an increasingly altered world is
lagging behind. What is needed is not simply more study, but an academic and practi-
tioner appreciation of science in this context.
In the UK, hydrology is responding to these imperatives. A melding of blue skies
and (potentially) applicable work is well represented in thematic programmes of the
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). The LOCAR programme has just been
launched with an emphasis on managed, permeable lowland catchments, partly to
complement the legacy of research on upland catchments in the past three decades. The
LandOcean Interaction Programme, which ran from 19921998, has just been reported
(Huntley et al., 2001). This programme emphasized the technologies of monitoring, as
well as the understanding of material fluxes (including contaminants) between river
basins and the sea, and was unique in the UK in its scale and interdisciplinarity. Just
how complicated hydrological and biological interactions between land and ocean can
be is amply demonstrated in a volume devoted to the Swan-Canning urban estuary of
Western Australia (Hamilton and Turner, 2001). There, research was initiated in the
mid-1990s largely in response to the deteriorating ecological health of the estuary
following human occupation from 1829. This work has revealed the importance of
tributary and drain inputs to the estuary that operate on differing timescales depending
on regional rainfall distribution and, also, disposal of agricultural wastes over the
sandy soils of the coastal plain with rapid transport through surficial aquifers.
Something of an academic rationale for translational hydrological science is evident
in a recent volume written by committees from UNESCO and the American Society of
Civil Engineers (ASCE) (Loucks and Gladwell, 1999). This discusses sustainability in
the context of water resource planning. Some might, however, question its generally
positive gloss on technical solutions to longer-term problems, particularly in relation to
less developed parts of the world. Nowhere is this better illustrated than in contrasting
flood impact and response, another topic which Graf (2001) addresses. In the USA,
294 Hydrology: the changing paradigm

although the federal government has spent more than US$30 billion since 1936 on flood
control measures, the losses this century amount to over US$280 billion, with mean
annul losses increasing. Private investment in the development of hazardous floodplain
areas is now thought to outstrip federal flood protection spending! This is in stark
contrast to less developed areas of the world. A study of victims perceptions following
the Beijiang floods of 1994, in Guangdong, China (Wong and Zhao, 2001) reveals that,
for those in villages subject to flooding, flood hazard is conceived of as a perpetual
hazard, characterized by a cycle of disasterdamagerepairdisaster. Faith in large-
scale hard engineering solutions is less common than reliance upon local and
individual support structures. Thus, societies may become accustomed to the
recurrent impact of floods, and evolve effective ways of coping that may be facilitated
or obstructed by regional and national policies. In the West, too, perceptions of rivers
may have unanticipated policy implications and, moreover, these may form early in
life. A survey of children aged 911 years in London revealed that rivers were generally
perceived of as polluted, neglected and (perhaps not surprisingly) dangerous places.
However, following visits to local rivers, negative perceptions were largely dispelled
(Tapsell et al., 2001). Such research illustrates the dangers of constantly approaching
environmental science education through problem-orientated issue-based learning.
More positively, it also suggests that rivers could be more rewarding as environments
for the young, and that the young might possess useful insights for planners and river
managers.

IV Basic research

At a time of such concern over the identity and future of hydrology, it is comforting to
return to basic research on some long-standing and familiar topics. Over the past year,
IAHS has continued with the production of some worthy additions to its red book
series. The interface between geomorphological processes, hydrological forcing and
hydrological output is presented in Hassan et al. (2000); while Stones (2000) volume on
the conveyance of sediment-associated nutrients and contaminants also stresses the
importance of understanding the geomorphology of sediment production, storage and
transfer as well as the sediment properties themselves. Even such a fundamental
process as flocculation is given new impetus by the recognition that flocculation affects
not only the physical dynamics of particle erosion, transport and settling, but also the
chemical and biological behaviour. All of these are liable to more-or-less continuous
modification as sediments pass through the various stages of water-borne transport,
and all possess feedbacks with local aquatic environmental quality. Providing a
conceptual model of this modification in transit is the first stage to improved under-
standing of contaminant and nutrient transfers and, ultimately, to improved model
implementations (Droppo, 2001). Related to this, a timely and much needed review of
tracers and modelling in hydrogeology is assembled by Dassargues (2000), and a com-
prehensive review of dissolved organic matter concentrations and fluxes in soils is
provided by Kalbitz et al. (2000). This paper stresses the importance of accounting for
hydrological controls on DOMs in reconciling laboratory findings (which emphasize
biological determinants) with field observation. There is also a need to extend the
research compass from temperate soils and forest ecosystems to other climatic zones
 N.J. Clifford 295

(see, for example, the Special Issue of Hydrological Processes edited by McDonnell and
Tanaka, 2001), and crucially, to modified land-use and environmental change scenarios.
With respect to channelized flow, Jains book (2001) is a short, but rigorous introduc-
tion to one-dimensional channel flow that might address some of the concerns raised
more widely about the need for a better appreciation of scientific basics in hydrology.
Mays (2001) provides a thorough-going, but very traditional introduction to the field of
water resource engineering, again from a channel engineering perspective. At a
research level, such familiar territory as the Seddon speed formula describing the wave
speed, c (change in discharge with respect to cross-sectional area of a channel) and
hysteresis in the in the stage-discharge curve, are revisited in analogy with stressstrain
properties and curves in elastic properties of solids (Mishra and Singh, 2001a, b).
Expressed mathematically, c = (1 + m) u, where u is the normal flow velocity and m is
the rating exponent. The rating exponent is a complex variable, and is shown to be
equivalent to the ratio of two specific heats: one at constant pressure, and one at
constant volume. Using the concept of elasticity, a new term, the flow strain, defined
as the ratio of the change in discharge to the initial discharge, permits a reconciliation
between differing techniques representing flood wave propagation and hysteresis.
Regional studies also continue to be strong, such as the severitydurationfrequency
analysis of droughts and wet periods in Greece (Dalezios et al., 2000), or the perspec-
tives on regional hydrological research in the Niger delta offered by Abam (2001).
Calculation of a water budget for a supraglacial lake in Nepal is reported by Chikita et
al. (2000), while, at a much larger scale, a water balance model representing the upper
White Nile illustrates its sensitivity to changes in Lake Victorias levels and outflow,
particularly in response to direct rainfall onto the lake surface (Sene, 2000). Even such
broad conclusions from large river systems, are, however, subject to uncertainties in the
water balance. For example, Clarke et al. (2000) examine the components contributing
to uncertainty in discharge estimates for the Amazonas and Parana rivers in South
America. Over a 20-year-plus time period, up to 16% of year-to-year variability may
arise from variation in the input data used to fit rating curves, but this may be
secondary to (unknown) land use change. Similarly, for the Arctic Ocean, Holmes et al.
(2000) use the data archives of the former Soviet Union and other estimates to evaluate
model predictions of the nutrient flux from Russian rivers to the Arctic Ocean. Such
fluxes integrate large-scale processes and should, therefore, be sensitive indicators of
environmental change. At present, however, uncertainties are too great even for model
calibration purposes, or to provide a baseline to detect change and even estimate its
direction.
Traditional subjects of research and established data archives might also be given
new leases of life by revisiting them with new questions, and by employing the full
potential of evolving data capture and representational technologies. For example,
long-term hydrological records from small basins, which have been the focus of basic
hydrological research for more than a generation over a large range of climatic,
geophysical and vegetation settings, might be revisited for their content on climatic
change, natural disturbance and human activities (Jones and Swanson, 2001). This kind
of longitudinal enquiry could also be facilitated by intersite and interdisciplinary data
harvesting systems (Baker et al., 2000), although it is clear that some basic limitations
exist. Attempts to codify the geomorphometric attributes of the global river system
based upon simulated topological networks at 30-minute scales (longitude and
296 Hydrology: the changing paradigm

latitude) yield first order simulated rivers equivalent to fifth- and sixth-order rivers
derived from 1:62 500 maps (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). At this resolution, results may be
sufficient to define a global river routing network for use in surface parameterization of
global climatic models (Renssen and Knoop, 2000), but they cannot replace at least a
combination of newer and more traditional field- and map-derived work for hydrolog-
ical modelling. Some of the issues surrounding data provision, uncertainties and model
predictions are examined in more detail below.

V Hydrological representations: uncertainty, scaling and modelling

For the student market, Beven (2000) has produced a primer on rainfallrunoff
modelling that encompasses all of the significant developments from the last 25 years.
Not only does the book offer rigour from introductory to more advanced levels, but it
also stresses the importance of a qualitative appreciation of hydrological systems,
including consideration of the limitations posed by data availability and imperfect
understanding. As models seek to integrate more components, involve increasingly
interdisciplinary concepts and require decision support to produce policy-relevant
answers, then a key issue is that of up- and down-scaling. An overview of these scaling
issues is provided for advanced student and practitioner use by Bierkens et al. (2000).
Individual research reports also address scaling issues, notably in respect of rainfall and
streamflow. Vogel and Sankarasubramanian (2000) demonstrate that the probability
distribution of annual streamflow in the USA follows a single, simple linear relation-
ship but, as climatic regime becomes more heterogeneous, predictions at the regional
scale become poorer. Sivakumar (2000) investigates temporal scaling behaviour in
rainfall in subtropical and equatorial regions at six-hourly, daily and weekly resolutions
over a 25-year period. No single dimension is sufficient to characterize rainfall.
Significant differences depend upon rainfall intensity, suggesting that a multidimen-
sional fractal approach has the greatest potential for successful characterization.
In an invited commentary in Hydrological Processes, Beven (2001a) returns to the
theme of uncertainty and its implications for the practice of hydrology as a rational
hypothesis-testing science. If modelling can be thought of as a process of an uncertain
mapping of a catchment into a model space, then that mapping might be constrained
using hypothesis testing to refine the range of feasible models. At present, there may be
too much stress on application and calibration of existing (increasingly complex)
models, and too little on confronting these with field data sets and new hypotheses.
However, the question then arises as to what constitutes suitable hypotheses to test?
Beven considers three fundamental propositions. Firstly, that the water balance is
closed, which is assumed by all models. Some models do not achieve this, but does that
necessarily mean that the models should be rejected since the water balance cannot at
present be closed by measurement? Second, a common assumption is that fast response
of catchments is dominated by surface runoff derived from rainfall, whereas tracer
experiments increasingly emphasize the importance of subsurface return flow. For
many models, this distinction is not important, but if water sources are an issue, then
additional models or additional model terms and new means of testing are required.
Third, knowledge of bedrock topography is rarely available (and difficult to obtain), yet
this (rather than hillslope form) may condition the pattern of flow and determine
 N.J. Clifford 297

incremental discharges to streams. This implies that models may well be wrong at the
local scale, provoking a choice between deterministic-inspired model rejection, or
practically motivated acceptance of error. Stauffer et al. (2000) review errors in
groundwater modelling arising from inadequate conceptions of physical processes,
including their temporal variability, the knowledge of system state at any given time
and improper specification of error bounds. Querner (2000) addresses human modifi-
cation of the natural groundwater regime, with similar conclusions to those debates
above on surface water modification. New methods of measurement or, at least, process
estimation may, however, sometimes arise opportunistically. Infiltration into
groundwater storage may, for example, be derived from the drip from stalactites (Sanz
and Lopez, 2000)!
In a second invited commentary, Beven (2001b) argues that hydrological modellers
need to develop a collective intelligence based upon a kind of reasoning from
experience about errors and assumptions, in order to improve extrapolations beyond
the range of available data. Because most models can compensate for errors in model
structure by calibration, then few models have actually been rejected on the basis of
comparison with observations, yet the differing predictions from them are nontrivial.
This can be seen in the application of three-, five- and six-parameter rainfallrunoff
models to three catchments with contrasting climatic and physical characteristics
(Abdulla and Al-Badranih, 2000). In each case, it is the baseflow parameter that is most
sensitive, but little information exists to improve its parameterization. Not even the
most complex model performs well in all catchments, even when simulating monthly
runoff. An example of the gains from applying the kind of approach that Beven
advocates is illustrated in Choi et al. (2000). Here, modelling of solute transport is
examined with respect to single- and multiple-storage-zone transport models in
conjunction with a priori specification of the multiple storage processes. Lumped rates
were successfully modelled by a simple model, but the contrasting model performances
are used to help explain how the relative hydrological properties of multiple storage
zones affect the lumped rate based upon simple models. In this case, it was the
competitive storage zone characteristics that were least well-represented in
comparison with additive and dominant ones. Modelling may, therefore, be used in
a recursive fashion to improve conceptualization, as well as prediction.
The potential role of models to improve explanation is also evident outside surface or
groundwater applications. Over the longest timescales and largest spatial areas, it is
now possible to model drainage development using coupled models of spatially varied
tectonic forcing and surface erosion processes occurring at differing rates. In the Swiss
Alps, for example, running such models yields scenarios that may be compared with
present (known) and ancestral drainage patterns. Abductive reasoning may then be
used to infer relative roles and patterns of tectonic forcing and surface erosion rates
(Kuhni and Pfiffner, 2001). Sensitivity analyses of resultant topography to model
erosional parameters (hillslope diffusive transport, sediment carrying capacity and
erosional length scale) yield not only differing resultant topographies, but also pinned
or migrating divides. As part of the modelling process, therefore, new boundary
conditions for future development can thus be generated. Coupling hydrodynamic
models to detailed field knowledge of patterns of sedimentation and their determinants
in estuaries (French and Clifford, 2000) is another illustration of modellings
supporting function, this time over shorter and intermediate timescales. Using this
298 Hydrology: the changing paradigm

approach, sea level rise and flood defence scenarios may be evaluated, which would not
otherwise be amenable to direct measurement or simpler extrapolation approaches. At
even shorter timescales again, the use of hydrodynamic models at scales of ecological
interest (e.g., Crowder and Diplas, 2000) is one of the most exciting challenges in the
new field of eco-hydraulics and applied hydrology.
Grappling with uncertainty as a technical issue is one of the most enduring aspects of
hydrological research. New techniques to replace missing data and improve predictions
continue to be explored. Hundecha et al. (2001) report on the development of a fuzzy
logic-based rainfallrunoff model for the Neckar catchment in Southwest Germany,
while Sivakumar et al. (2001) obtain reasonable predictions of monthly runoff series in
the Coarcy Numes/Araguari basin in northern Brazil using nonlinear prediction
methods based upon the identification of low-dimensional chaos in measured runoff
dynamics. Dynamical systems approaches may also be used to clean hydrometerolog-
ical time series, with the result that seemingly stochastic series are better represented as
deterministic ones (Jayawardena and Gurung, 2000). Persson et al. (2001) use a simple
artificial neural network (ANN) approach as an alternative to empirical methods to
calibrate time-domain reflectometry measurements to measure water and solute
transport through soils. ANN geometry is problem dependent, and the network
complexity is related to the input parameters used. Much past concern has related to
the size of the training data set, and to network accuracy judged from model
validation using RMS error statistics in which input parameters are assessed according
to their relative contributions to the global goodness-or-fit. By contrast, Coulibaly et al.
(2001) show how the nature of the input data is vital to optimal ANN design and
performance. Improved forecasting of one-week-ahead hydrologic events is achieved
using two criteria: one to determine appropriate peak flow representation, the other
low flow. Effectively, these represent two different physical process sets. Nevertheless,
some dependence on the number of events in the time series is still seen, irrespective of
the optimization parameter. Abebe et al. (2000) and Elshorbagy et al. (2000a, b) compare
fuzzy rule-based approaches, ANNs and traditional statistical approaches for the recon-
struction of missing precipitation events. All of the techniques have something to
commend them. Koutsoyiannis (2000) demonstrates the potential to generalize autoco-
variance functions that underlie statistical short- and long-term memory processes, and
hence newer classes of approaches now sit more comfortably alongside traditional
stochastic simulation and forecasting in hydrology.
Better prediction of output variables such as rainfall may also be obtained using
geostatistical approaches. These can account for spatial dependency in data and the
interrelation with input variables such as elevation obtained from digital elevation
models (Goovaerts, 2000). An inverse iterative geostatistical methodology is developed
by Yeh and Liu (2000) to characterize aquifer heterogeneity based upon hydraulic
tomography in which water is sequentially pumped from, or injected into, an aquifer
at different vertical portions and hydraulic head response in other portions is
monitored. The procedure is required to yield the effective hydraulic conductivity from
spatially- and temporally distributed inputs and outputs that also have significant
interdependence. The technique can also be used to design monitoring and pumping
schemes and as a basis of sensitivity analysis for other aquifer modelling. Here, too,
then, is an application of modelling with far-reaching explanatory and value-added
potential.
 N.J. Clifford 299

VI Hydrology: some prospects

Notwithstanding concerns over the modification of natural hydrological systems, and

with the pace and trajectory of change in hydrological research, it is clear that
hydrology matters! As the range and complexity of hydrological problems requiring
solution or mitigation increases so, too, must the sophistication of the disciplines philo-
sophical and methodological armoury, as well as its technical prowess. Provided that
new technologies of representation, modelling and statistical analysis are used with
sensitivity to the context of their application, there are many reasons to be optimistic
about hydrologys future. In subsequent reviews, attention will be given to those
emerging aspects of hydrological enquiry that seem best placed to capitalize on these
positive prospects.

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