Running Head: SHELL SCENARIOS 1

Shell Scenarios

Students Name

Institution
SHELL SCENARIOS 2

Shell Scenarios

Mountains- Mountain scenario anticipates a world of moderate economic

development, with policy playing a significant role in shaping environmental pathway and

the global energy system (Shell, 2013). These policy measures result or leads to more

compact or solid cities and transform the worldwide transport network. Cleaner- burning

natural gas becomes the backbone of the global energy system. World demand for oil peaks

in about the year 2035, with hydrogen and electricity dominating for trucks and cars by the

end of the century (Shell, 2013). New technology to capture carbon dioxide emissions aids at

reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the power sector to zero by the year 2060.

Greenhouse gas emissions will begin to fall after 2030. These emissions remain on trajectory

to go beyond or overshoot the target of limiting global temperature rise to around 2 degrees

Celsius (Shell, 2013).

How Shell utilize business teams in this process

New Lens Scenarios examines energy, political, economic trends out to 2100, and

highlights the critical role that the government policies will probably play in shaping the

future (Shell, 2013). According to the shell, the world in the future will be determined by

how people and the government meet the challenges posed or caused by institution, insecurity

and inequality in relation to the paradoxes of leadership, prosperity, and connectivity. Shell

scenarios have provided vital insights into the potential trajectories of social trends, global

economic sine their interceptions in the year 1972 (Shell, 2013). Mountains and oceans

scenarios explore future pathway, examining or probing the implications for; types of energy

used, pace of global economic development and the growth in green house gas emissions.

They have highlighted areas of public policy likely to have major influences in improving

energy efficiencies, moderating emissions, and developing or coming up with cleaner and
SHELL SCENARIOS 3

renewable fuels. Shell scenarios have helped business teams understand the uncertainties and

possibilities ahead and make plan how to overcome these possibilities and certainties (Shell,

2013). These scenarios have also encouraged businesses to stretch their thinking and make

better decisions. Business teams are tasked with the responsibility to reduce emissions of

green houses emissions and carbon dioxide emissions, this can however be achieved by

developing new technology that can reduce these emissions.

Question 3

The future is impossible to predict given the analytical track and rigor record of the

Shells scenarios, but it is more likely that the global energy system in the future will

resemble some of the trends based on Shell scenarios the world in the future will be

determined by how people and the government meet the challenges posed or caused by

institution, insecurity and inequality in relation to the paradoxes of leadership, prosperity, and

connectivity (Shell, 2013). My advice to shell in order to prepare for the future to succeed in

the face of likely government impacts, he must deal with the national government, local and

regional government, powerful non- governmental organizations, local people and tribes to

help him succeed towards his predictable sustained global energy system. Government

impacts or efforts towards sustainable global energy system would be important or critical

towards his success. We are faced with choices that tend to produce consequences in the

future. Whether we are anticipating significant threat or coming up with new opportunities,

we base our critical decision on our perspective future. There is a huge value in developing as

rich understanding as possible of the trends, uncertainties, choices and cycles that will shape

the future that you cannot predict.

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References

http://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-in-

film.html

http://s01.static-shell.com/content/dam/shell-

new/local/corporate/Scenarios/Downloads/Scenarios_newdoc.pdf

Shell, R. D. (2013). New Lens Scenarios: A shift in perspective for a world in transition.