ISSN 1068-3712, Russian Electrical Engineering, 2017, Vol. 88, No. 5, pp. 271273. Allerton Press, Inc., 2017.

Original Russian Text D.A. Polyakov, G.A. Koshchuk, K.I. Nikitin, 2017, published in Elektrotekhnika, 2017, No. 5, pp. 3134.

Definition of the Remaining Life of Power-Transmission Lines

with Cross-Linked Polyethylene Insulation
D. A. Polyakov*, G. A. Koshchuk, and K. I. Nikitin
Omsk State Technical University, Omsk, Russia
*e-mail: journal-elektrotechnika@mail.ru
Received April 14, 2016

AbstractXLPE-insulated cables and wires are becoming more widespread. For this reason, it is becoming
necessary to control the state of insulation over its total operating life. Online monitoring of the effects on the
insulation and determination of its remaining life becomes possible using modern equipment. In this paper,
a method of determining the remaining lifetime of the cross-linked polyethylene insulation of the power-
transmission line is presented. An insulation-aging model developed at the previous stage of the research was
used. It is proposed to control the destructive effects on the insulation and calculate the remaining life based
on the obtained data. The results of the research showed that the probability of failure is subject to the normal
character of distribution (Gaussian distribution) as the insulation in the process of operation is exposed to a
large number of effects (partial discharges, thermal actions, effect of the environmental factors, etc.). The
remaining lifetime is defined as a function of inverse failure probability. The proposed method can be used to
develop a set of devices for determining the remaining life of polyethylene insulation.

Keywords: cable power line, polyethylene insulation, remaining life, statistical calculation, insulation aging,
insulation failure
DOI: 10.3103/S1068371217050091

In the course of operation of the power-transmis-
sion lines (PTL) its insulation is exposed to aging pro-
cesses, under the effect of which the insulation mate-
rial is breaks at the molecular level. Defects called
fatigue effects are concentrated and accumulated.
Aging of the dielectric material can occur for different
reasons:
electrical aging;
temperature aging;
mechanical aging;
insulation damping;
radioactive aging;
solar radiation; and
chemical effects.
Power-transmission lines are exposed to the effect
of the aforementioned aging factors during operation
in various settings, and controlling them during the
period of operation will allow measures to be taken in
time to prevent insulation failure.
It has been proposed to use for this purpose a set of
hardware and software for equipment capable of con-
trolling automatically the state of insulation and deter-
mining the remaining lifetime.
It has been suggested that the remaining lifetime of
insulation be determined using predictive protection
[1, 2] (Fig. 1), monitoring factors that have a destruc-
tive effect on insulation, and thus calculating the
remaining lifetime.
A number of microcontrolling sensors (of insula-
tion temperature, partial discharges, humidity of the
environment, mechanical effects, ultraviolet radia-
tion, radiation and chemical effects) will be installed
on the power line to control destructive factors. Each
sensor will measure the necessary parameter, perform
the primary calculations (for example, determine the
average temperature within a certain time interval),
and supply these data to the predictive-protection
device, which will calculate the remaining life of the
insulation and determine its prefailure state.
The number and type of sensors installed on the
controller power line can differ depending on the
operation conditions (for example, in the absence of
an effect of ultraviolet radiation, the corresponding
sensor is not required).
It is advisable to install a predictive-protection sys-
tem on the controller power line from the moment of
its commissioning. In the case of installation of such a
system on an existing power line, some time is
required to collect statistical data on the negative
effects on the line. Thereafter, calculation based on
data from previous years will be carried out on the
basis of the average values of the parameters or on data
that have been entered into the device manually.

271
272 POLYAKOV et al.

Radiation
Failure-probability density
Partial-discharge Chemical sensor
sensor sensor 0.007
0.006
0.005
Insulation- Environmental-
temperature Predictive protection
0.004
humidity
sensor sensor
0.003
0.002
Mechanical-action Solar-radiation
0.001
sensor sensor 0
0.001
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Percent of destroyed molecules
Fig. 2. Dependence of failure-probability density on per-
cent of destroyed molecules: ( ) modeled dependence,
Fig. 1. Structural diagram of predictive protection. (----) approximated curve.

Probability of failure
1.2
1.0
Remaining lifetime, %
0.8
120
0.6
100
0.4 80
0.2 60
0 40
0.2 20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Percent of destroyed molecules 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Percent of destroyed molecules
Fig. 3. Function of dependence of failure-probability den-
sity on percent of destroyed molecules: ( ) modeled Fig. 4. Dependence of remaining lifetime on percent of
dependence, (----) approximated curve. destroyed molecules.

Despite the positive effect that may result from where k = 0.0225 is the scaling factor, = 1.5 is the
some types of insulation aging (for example, improve- mean square deviation, m = 4 is the mathematical
ment of the state of insulation after thermal aging [3]), expectation, and N is the percent of destroyed mole-
it is suggested that only their negative effects be con- cules.
sidered. It is necessary to define the function of the Gauss
Before calculating the remaining lifetime of the distribution corresponding to the obtained character-
insulation, it is necessary to determine the degree of istics of the probability density to determine the prob-
degradation of the dielectric material, which will likely ability of insulation failure:
lead to failure. Based on the model of the insulation N ( N m) 2
aging [4] on the ratio of the destroyed molecules
F (N ) = 1 e
(Fig. 2). In addition, to determine the dependence of
the probability density, the curve with the maximum
2
2 2
dN . (3)

coincidence with the initial function needs to be deter- To find the function of the model, it is required to
mined. The shape of the modeled curve is given by a represent the integral in the form of the sum of values
normal distribution (Gauss distribution): obtained during modeling:
( N m) 2 N

f = 1 e 2 . F (N ) = f.
2
(1) i (4)
2 i =0
After selecting the parameters for the maximum Based on expressions (3) and (4), function graphs
coincidence of the obtained characteristics, the fol- were plotted based on the data of modeling and an
lowing dependence was achieved: approximated function (Fig. 3).
( N 4)2 The remaining lifetime of insulation depends on

f = 0.225 1 e 21.5 , the probability of failure of insulation, which can be
2
(2)
1.5 2 determined if the percent of the destroyed molecules is

RUSSIAN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING Vol. 88 No. 5 2017

 DEFINITION OF THE REMAINING LIFE OF POWER-TRANSMISSION LINES
known. In fact, the remaining lifetime can be repre-
sented as the probability that the insulation will not
break; i.e., the function of the remaining lifetime will
be a function inverse to the probability of failure of the
percent of destroyed molecules:
remaning ( N ) = (1 F ( N )) 100%. (5)
Dependence (5) is given on Fig. 4.
The number of molecules in a set insulation vol-
umefor example, 1 mm3needs to be determined in
practice using the method of ascertaining the remain-
ing lifetime. The distance between CH2 molecules is
0.1267 nm [5]; therefore, the number of CH2 mole-
cules in the specified insulation volume is
3 molecules at this moment in time based on expression (9).
n=
10 3
= 4.92 10 20.
9
(6)
0.267 10
According to [6], the service life of insulation
depends on the internal service life and fracture veloc-
ity of the dielectric material under the influence of dif-
ferent destructive factors. Thus, the number of
destroyed molecules of CH2 at moment of time t
comes to
t 2. Nikitin, K.I., Sarychev, M.M., Stepanov, V.D., Ere-
N 0 (t ) = v (t ) dt,
0
where v (t ) is the fracture velocity under the cumula-
tive effect of factors destroying the insulation at
moment of time t (measured in molecules per second),
which can be determined using the formula
v (t ) = v q + v T + v + v h + v r + v + v c ,
where v q ,v T ,v ,v h,v rv and v c are the speed of
degradation of the insulation due to the effects of par-
tial discharges, temperature, mechanical stresses,
excessive humidity, radiation, ultraviolet radiation,
and chemical effects.
It is suggested that this method of calculation be
used in predictive-protection software, but for this
purpose it is required to represent the integral as a sum
RUSSIAN ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING Vol. 88
273
of values of the fracture speed of the dielectric material
within known time intervals:
t
N 0 (t ) = v t . i i (9)
t =0
For example, to determine the remaining resource,
the condition can be set that the necessary parameters
be measured once per second (ti = 1 s). It is then
required to calculate the fracture velocity of the dielec-
tric material within time interval i that will be numer-
ically equal to the number of the destroyed molecules
within the same time interval.
It is possible to determine the number of destroyed
The percent of destroyed molecules can then be deter-
mined by formula (6).
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4. Nikitin, K.I. and Polyakov, D.A., The way to determine
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Translated by Yu. Bezlepkina
No. 5 2017