Mathematical

SUMMARY NOTES
Methods
Units 3 & 4

2016 - 2018 Study Design

Contents

COMMON EXAM TRIPS...................................................................................................................................................... 4

FUNCTIONS ........................................................................................................................................................................... 6

Set notation ........................................................................................................................................... 6

Describing Functions ............................................................................................................................. 6

Functions Chapter Summary ............................................................................................................... 7

Coordinate Geometry and Matrices Summary .................................................................................. 8

Polynomial Functions ............................................................................................................................ 9

Quadratic ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Cubic ............................................................................................................................................................................................. 9
Quartic .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 9
Power functions of higher degrees ...................................................................................................................................... 10
Graphing Polynomial Functions ............................................................................................................................................ 10

Exponentials and Logarithms ............................................................................................................. 13

Graphing Exponential and Logarithmic Functions ........................................................................................................... 15

Circular Functions ............................................................................................................................... 16

Circles ................................................................................................................................................... 16

Semicircles ........................................................................................................................................... 16

Transformations .................................................................................................................................. 17
How find the image of a transformation ............................................................................................................................ 17
How to describe a sequence of transformations ............................................................................................................. 18

ALGEBRA ............................................................................................................................................................................. 20

Solutions to Simultaneous Equations ................................................................................................ 20

For homogeneous systems: ................................................................................................................................................... 20
For non-homogeneous systems: .......................................................................................................................................... 20

Composite Functions .......................................................................................................................... 21

Example Questions .................................................................................................................................................................. 21

Factorising Polynomial Functions ...................................................................................................... 22

Index Laws ........................................................................................................................................... 22

Solving Indicial Equations and Inequations ......................................................................................................................... 23

Logarithm Laws ................................................................................................................................... 23

Solving Exponential Equations with Logarithms ............................................................................................................... 24
Circular Functions ............................................................................................................................... 25
Unit Circle ................................................................................................................................................................................. 25
Solving Circular Functions ..................................................................................................................................................... 26

AOS 3 CALCULUS ............................................................................................................................................................. 29

Derivatives ........................................................................................................................................... 29
Interpretation of the Derivative ........................................................................................................................................... 29
First Principles ........................................................................................................................................................................... 29
Properties of the Derivative .................................................................................................................................................. 29
6 Formulae for Differentiation .............................................................................................................................................. 30
4 Rules for Differentiation ..................................................................................................................................................... 30
Using the Derivative ................................................................................................................................................................ 31
Applications of the Derivative .............................................................................................................................................. 31
Using chain rule to solve rate-of-change word problem ............................................................................................... 32
Linear Approximation ............................................................................................................................................................. 32
Continuity .................................................................................................................................................................................. 33

Integration ........................................................................................................................................... 34
Indefinite integral ...................................................................................................................................................................... 34
Definite integral ........................................................................................................................................................................ 34
6 Formulae for Integration .................................................................................................................................................... 34
1 rule - the linear property.................................................................................................................................................... 35
Substitution ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Recognition ................................................................................................................................................................................ 35
Areas ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 36
Approximation .......................................................................................................................................................................... 37

AOS4 PROBABILITY & STATISTICS ........................................................................................................................... 38

Steps when solving a probability problem ......................................................................................... 38

Sample Space and Probability ............................................................................................................ 38

Rules & Relationships Between Events .............................................................................................. 39

Probability rules ........................................................................................................................................................................ 39
Relationships .............................................................................................................................................................................. 39

Discrete Random Variables ................................................................................................................ 40

Random variable ....................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Discrete probability distribution function.......................................................................................................................... 40
Mode............................................................................................................................................................................................ 40
Percentiles .................................................................................................................................................................................. 40
Expected value .......................................................................................................................................................................... 40
Standard deviation.................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Variance ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 41
Pr 2 < < + 2 = . ....................................................................................................................................... 41
The linear property ................................................................................................................................................................. 41
Using CAS .................................................................................................................................................................................. 41

Binomial Distribution .......................................................................................................................... 41

A Bernoulli experiment .......................................................................................................................................................... 41
 Binomial distribution function ............................................................................................................................................... 41
Graph of the binomial distribution ...................................................................................................................................... 42
Expected Value ......................................................................................................................................................................... 42
Variance ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 43
nCr and Pascal's Triangle ....................................................................................................................................................... 43

Continuous Random Variables ........................................................................................................... 43

Probability density function ................................................................................................................................................... 43
Possible Questions ................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Mean ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 44
Percentiles .................................................................................................................................................................................. 44
Variance ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Standard deviation.................................................................................................................................................................... 44
Pr 2 < < + 2 = 0.95 ......................................................................................................................................... 44
The linear property ................................................................................................................................................................. 45

The Normal Distribution .................................................................................................................... 45

The standard normal distribution ........................................................................................................................................ 45
The general normal distribution ........................................................................................................................................... 45
The 689599.7% Rule ........................................................................................................................................................... 46
Using CAS .................................................................................................................................................................................. 46
Normal approximation to binomial distribution .............................................................................................................. 47

Sampling ............................................................................................................................................... 47
Populations................................................................................................................................................................................. 48
Simple random samples .......................................................................................................................................................... 48
Population and Sample Ratios ............................................................................................................................................... 48
Distribution of the Sample Proportion............................................................................................................................... 50
Confidence Intervals ................................................................................................................................................................ 51
Common Exam Trips
Watch out for:

General
Use excess decimal places in calculations
Working: define new variables
Dont give exact values for decimal place questions
Be careful to not swap x for other variables
Get rid of negative signs early rather than later
Show extra working with fractions and surds
Units!

Probability
Dont forget the other half of a conditional probability question
Use hypergeometric distribution
o Make sure using right numbers
Beware of not
More than is > not
Discrete: ensure all combinations are covered
Convert variance to standard deviation for normal distribution
Check how many standard deviations!

Functions
Can substitute integers for graphs of equations with parameters
Domain
o is [
o is (
o Maximal domain of x includes 0
Convert range to domain question
Remember to give co-ordinates when asked for
Label axis intercepts

Calculus
Strictly increasing & decreases includes f(x)=0
If f(x) = g(x), then f(x) = g(x) + c
A function is not differentiable at endpoints
1/x dx = e |x| + c
Area between curves is always positive!
o Be careful when inverting curves on negative side of axis
See the compound shapes
Dont have to integrate over the same interval
Algebra
Transformations
o Image to pre-image
o Pre-image to image
Factorise & expand showing intermediate steps

Geometry
Check all variables for restrictions, which must be bigger?
Try draw similar triangles if figuring out relationship between variables
Functions
Set notation
Set: a collection of elements, or members

Is an element of

Describing Functions
: , () =

There is a unique element for each in the domain of , such that (, ) .

Element is the "image of under "

Element is "a pre-image of "

is the domain
is the codomain, leave as
Functions Chapter Summary
Coordinate Geometry and Matrices Summary
Polynomial Functions
Quadratic
General form
() = 2 + + , 0

Turning point form

() = ( )2 +

Where (, ) is the turning point

Axis of symmetry

=
2

Quadratic formula
2 4
=
2

Discriminant
= 2 4

>0 2 solutions

=0 1 solution

<0 0 solutions

To change form of an equation - Conics > Fit > Fit into conics form

Cubic
General form
() = 3 + 2 + + , 0

Turning point form

() = ( )3 + , 0

Where (, ) is the point of inflection

Quartic
General form
() = 4 + 3 + 2 + + , 0

Turning point form

() = ( )4 +

Where (, ) is the turning point

Power functions of higher degrees
Even degrees
() = 2

Q2 to Q1. Q3 to Q4 when negative.

Odd degrees
() = 2+1

Always start in quadrant 3 and end quadrant 1 when is positive. Q2 to Q4 when negative.

Graphing Polynomial Functions

Power function: a function of the form () = , where is a non-zero real number

Power Functions in Base Form

1< = = 2 = 3 = 4

1 1
0<<1 = = 3 = 4

<0 1 1 1 1
= = = = 1
2 3
For polynomial functions where >
Make sure the function is in factorised form, not expanded form

e.g. () = ( + 6)3 ( + 3)2 ( 2)4(5 )5

Not 15 + 9 14 + 9313 109512 183311 + 4796710 62073 9 869421 8

+ 2705070 7 + 4694396 6 29747400 5 + 19674000 4
+ 90180000 3 178200000 2 + 97200000

1. Find the global shape

This is determined by 2 factors:
a.
The degree of the polynomial e.g. 3 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 5 = 15

b.
Coefficient of the highest power e.g. 1

Degree Coefficient is +'ve Coefficient is -'ve

Odd

Even

2. Mark the x-intercepts

X-intercepts are found when each factor = 0

e.g.
0 = ( + 6)3 ( + 3)2 ( 2)4 (5 )5
= 6 = 3 = 0 = 2 = 5

3. Find local shape at the x-intercepts

Treat each factor as its own function. The basic shape is the same as examples above.

Degree Shape Description

1 Straight line crossing the axis

Even Turning point touching the axis

 Odd Point of inflection

4. Connect the lines smoothly

For polynomial functions where < 0

1. Rearrange to the form of = +
3+2
e.g. = 21

3 3 3 7
(2 1 + 1) + 2 (2 1) + + 2 3 2 1 3 7
= 2 = 2 2 = + 2 = +
2 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 2 2(2 1)

7 3
= +
4 2 2
3
N.B. you may be given something like = 2 + 1 +
2+4

You should not rearrange this, the 'horizontal' asymptote is simply = 2 + 1

2. Draw the horizontal asymptote

3
= e.g. = 2

3. Find and draw the vertical asymptote

h=0 e.g. 4 2 = 0

1
=
2

4. Plot a point on each side of the vertical asymptote and draw the lines

e.g.

7 3 4
x = 0, y = + = = 2
4(0) 2 2 2
 7 3 10
x = 1, y = + = =5
4(1) 2 2 2

Exponentials and Logarithms

For () = , > 1 For () = , = 1 For () = , 0 < < 1

= + +
log ( )+

Graphing Exponential and Logarithmic Functions
The graph of an exponential function = + + Example:
is determined by:
= +

1. The horizontal asymptote 1. The asymptote is

= = 4

2. A reference point by solving for when 2. The reference point

3 + 6 = 0
+ = 0 6
= =2
3

= 2 0 4
= 2 1 4 = 2

(2, 2)

3. The direction of the line 3. The direction of the line

= reflection in the x-axis

= reflection in the y-axis

The graph of a logarithmic function = ( + Example:

) + is determined by:
= 3 log (5 ) + 2

1. The vertical asymptotes by solving 1. The vertical asymptotes

+ = 0 5 =0
=5

2. A reference point by solving for when 2. A reference point

+ = 1 5 =1
=4

= 3 log 1 + 2
= 3 0 + 2 = 2
(4, 2)

3. The direction of the line 3. The direction of the line

= reflection in the x-axis

= reflection in the y-axis

Circular Functions
= sin = cos = tan

Sine & cosine

= sin ( h)
2
=

Tangent
= tan ( + h) +

=

(2 + 1)
= h, Z
2

Or let ( + h) = 2

Circles
( )2 + ( )2 = 2

(, ) = (, )

Semicircles
= 2 ( )2
Transformations
To find the image of a function under a sequence of transformations means

to find the new function, and

to find the relation between the x and y coordinates of all the new points

How find the image of a transformation

Example Question
( + ) =

Transform by

A dilation in the x-axis by a factor of 2

A dilation in the y-axis by a factor of 3

A reflection in the x-axis

A translation in the x-axis by 5 units

A translation in the y-axis by -6 units

Steps
2. Express as a point to point transformation in ordered pairs

(, ) (2 + 5, 3 6)

3. Find the relationship between the variables of the image, and , and the original function,
and

= 2 + 5

= 3 6

4. Make and the subjects

5
=
2
+ 6
=
3
5. Substitute these values into the original equation
2
5 + 6 5 + 6
2( ) 3 (2 ( ) + 4) = 3 ( ) ( )
2 3 2 3

1. Simplify and get rid of dashes to get the function of the image

4 2 ( 5)( + 6)
+5=
3 2
How to describe a sequence of transformations
Example Question
= ( ) + = ( ) +

Steps
2. Change the original function and its image to its fundamental form

1 3
= loge (4 2) = log (6 2 )
2 4
3. Describe and in terms of and respectively

1 3
=
2 4
4 2 = 6 2

4. Find expressions of and in terms of and

2 = 6 4 + 2

= + 1

2( 3) = 4( 1)
2 + 6 = 4 4
= 5 2

5. Express in matrix form

1 0 1
[ ]=[ ][ ] + [ ]
0 2 5

a. Describe the transformation

Description must include:

The type of transormation in the order: dilation, reflection, translation

The transformed distance relative to the origin

The direction

For the matrix:

0 h
[ ] = [ ][ ]+ [ ]
0

First - the dilation factor from the y-axis

Second - the dilation factor from the x-axis

Third - a reflection in the y-axis

Fourth - a reflection in the x-axis

Fifth h - translation parallel to the x-axis

Sixth - translation parallel to the y-axis

Algebra
Solutions to Simultaneous Equations
The solution to a system of simultaneous equations is the point at which the lines intersect.
Usually, there is one intersection and therefore one solution for and .
However if the lines are parallel, i.e. have the same gradient, then there is no solution.
If the lines have the same gradient and both meet at any point, i.e. same line, then there are infinite
solutions.
For homogeneous systems:
The system is presented in the following form:

1 + 1 = 0

2 + 2 = 0

There is always one solution: (0, 0)

Theorem:
1. There is a unique solution if and only if

1 1

2 2

i.e. they are not proportional

2. There are an infinite number of solutions if and only if

1 1
=
2 2

i.e. they are proportional

For non-homogeneous systems:

The system is presented in the following form:

1 + 1 = 1

2 + 2 = 2

Theorem:
1. There is a unique solution if and only if

1 1

2 2

i.e. not proportional

 2. There are no solutions if and only if

1 1 1
=
2 2 2

i.e. the coefficients are proportional (same gradient) but not the constants

3. There are an infinite number of solutions if and only if

1 1 1
= =
2 2 2

i.e. they are proportional

Composite Functions
() = (())

Defined only if ran dom

Example Questions
Find the function rule:

1) (()) given () and ()

25 43
2) () given (()) = 3
, and () = 7

25 43()
i) 3
= 7

ii) Then solve for ()

3+2 7+1
3) Example 1: () given (()) = 4
, and () = 5
2
7 1 3(+ )
3
i) (()) = (5 ( + 7)) = 4
1
7 3( )+2
7
ii) ( 5 ) = 4
5 1
3( )+2 15+11
7 7
iii) () = 4
= 28

5 7+1 1
3( ( ) )+2 3+2
7 5 7
iv) Check: (()) = 4
= 4
 or
5 ()1
i) = 7
5 ()1
3( )+2
7
ii) (()) = 4
15 11
iii) () = 28
+ 28

6
4) Find () given (()) = 3 and () = 5

6
i) 3 = ( 5
)

ii) +3 = ( 5)
iii) 5+3 = ()

5(6)
iv) Check: (()) = 5 ()+3 = 5
+3
= 3

Factorising Polynomial Functions

Division
() = ()() + ()
Long division
Equating coefficients

Remainder Theorem

() ( + ) = ( )

Factor Theorem

If ( + ) is a factor, ( ) = 0

Rational Root Theorem

Let () = + 1 1 + + 0
If ( + ) is a factor, divides , and divides by 0

Difference and Sum of Cubs

3 3 = ( )( 2 + 2 )
3 + 3 = ( + )( 2 + 2 )

Index Laws
= +

( ) =
 () =

1
=

0 = 1


=

Law of exponential change

= 0

0 is the initial value

is a constant:
Growth >0

Decay <0

Solving Indicial Equations and Inequations

Simplify the equation so that there is a common base.

= =

> > , > 1

> < , 0 < < 1

Change of Base
= log()

Logarithm Laws

= +

( ) =

1
() =

= 1

1 = 0
Equivalency to Index Form
= = log
" is the 'log' of with base "

: , () =

Is the inverse of

1 : + , 1 () = log

As a result:
log =

And
log
=

Change of Base
log
log =
log

Solving Exponential Equations with Logarithms

E.g. solve 321 = 28

Method 1
Take log10 of both sides of log10 321 = log10 28
the equation

Factor law (2 1) log10 3 = log10 28

Isolate log10 28
2 1 =
log10 3
log10 28
2 = +1
log10 3
Calculator log10 28
= 2.017
2 log10 3

Method 2
Take log 3 of boths sides of 2 1 = log 3 28
the equation

Isolate 1 + log 3 28
=
2
Calculator 2.017
Circular Functions
Degrees and Radians
180

1 = 1 =
180

Symmetry
CAST, counter-clockwise from Q4

Complimentary Relationships

= ( ) = ( )
2 2

( + ) = ( + ) =
2 2

Pythagorean identity
2 + 2 = 2
cos2 + sin2 = 12

Tangent function
2 1 sin
= = = = tan
2 1 cos
Unit Circle
sin =
cos =
sin
tan =
cos
Solving Circular Functions
There are 3 types of question on circular functions

Find the solutions for when the function within a domain

( ) = ,

1. Let everything inside the brackets = . Draw the domain for i.e. make the domain for
whatever is within brackets

2 2
5 5

2 2 2
5 5 5

2. Find the basic angle and mark its possible positions

2 cos = 1 =
3

Therefore the solutions for = 2 5 = 2 + 3 , 3 , 3
, 2 3

3. Find

2 = 2 + + , + , + , 2 +
3 5 3 5 3 5 3 5

8 2 8 2
2 = 2 + , , , 2
15 15 15 15

4 4
= + , , ,
15 15 15 15

= , , ,

Find the general solution

For general solutions you only need to find solution/s within the first period. In each period
thereafter they are repeated. For sine and cosine there are two solutions, for tangent there is one.

Find the general solution: () =

1
1. Let = 3 and draw cos = over the domain 0 2
2

Therefore = 3 = 4 , + 4

2. Express for each recurring period.

= 3 = 2 + , 2 + +
4 4

3. Simplify for
3 5
3 = 2 + , 2 +
4 4

= + , +

One of sin , cos and tan are given. Find the other two.

( + ) = ,

1. First, rearrange to isolate sin()

3
sin( + ) = sin() =
6

2. Draw a right angle triangle based on the relationship between hypotenuse, opposite and

adjacent. We know that sin =
3. The remaining side was calculated using 2 + 2 = 2
62 32 = 36 3 = 33

4. Now that we have the values of all sides, we can determine the value of cosine and tangent.
3
Since the domain restricts us to the fourth quadrant ( 2 2), cosine must be positive and
tangent must be negative.

= + =

= = = = =

AOS 3 Calculus
Derivatives
Interpretation of the Derivative
Derivative:
the gradient of the tangent
the gradient of the curve
(2 )(1 )
limit of the average rate of change lim
2 1 2 1
the rate of change

Velocity = derivative of displacement

Acceleration = derivative of velocity

First Principles
( + h) () ( + h) ()
() = lim = lim
h0 ( + h) h0 h

Properties of the Derivative

The derivative of a number multiple is the multiple of the derivative:
() = ()
Then, () = ()

The derivative of the sum is the sum of the derivatives:

() = () + h()
Then () = () + h()

The value of the derivative is tan of the angle it makes with the x-axis:

() = = tan


= tan1

6 Formulae for Differentiation
We have formulae for the derivative 4 of the 5 fundamental functions (power, exponential, log,
circular, inverse of circular).

1. =
= 1

2. =
=

3. = log 1
=

4. = sin
= cos

5. = cos
= sin

6. = tan 1
= = sec 2
cos2

4 Rules for Differentiation

Linear Property ( () + ()) = () + () Never take out as factor
(use product rule)

Chain Rule ((())) = (()) () Careful to not forget the
indices

Product Rule (() ()) = () () + () ()

Quotient Rule () () () () () Often it is possible to
( ) = 2 simplify. Check for
() (())
common factors and logs

Chain rule can also be written as:

=

Using chain rule:

1. = ()
= ()1 ()

2. = ()
= () ()

3. = log () 1
= ()
()
4. = sin()
= cos () ()

5. = cos ()
= sin () ()

6. = tan ()
= sec 2 () ()

()
= cos2 ()

Using the Derivative

Tangent Line
= (1 ) + (1 )( 1 )

Normal Line
1
= (1 ) ( 1 )
(1 )
Stationary Points
() = 0
Max Inflection Min

1 1 1+ 2 3 3 3+

() + 0 - - - 0 +

() - - - 0 + + +

()

Applications of the Derivative

Equation of tangent to = () at = is:

= () + ()( )

If = + is a tangent of = () at (, ). Then we know:

1. At = the derivative of the curve equals the gradient of the tangent.

() =

2. (, ) is a point on the curve.

 = ()

3. (, ) is a point on the line.

= +

Using chain rule to solve rate-of-change word problem

The volume of a balloon is increasing at the rate of 2cm3/s.

= 2 3 1

Find the rate of change of the radius.

4
We know that = 3 3 3

= 4 2 2

=

1
= 2 3 1 2
4 2
1
= 1
2 2

Hence find the rate of change of the radius when = 1 and = 4

=1 1
=
2
=4 1
=
32

Linear Approximation
The approximation of a function can be found using the equation of the tangent from a known point.

The equation of a tangent is 0 = (0 ) ( 0 )

Rearrange to give = 0 + (0 ) ( 0 )

In summary:
() (0 ) + (0 ) (1 0 )

Example:
Find the approximate value of 5.

Let () =
 1
Then () = 2

We know that (4) = 4 = 2

By finding the equation of the tangent to the curve at = 4, we can gain an approximate value of
() at = 5

So let 0 = 4 and 1 = 5

() (4) + (4) ((5) (4))

1
4 + 1
24
1
2+
4
2.25

Note that this approximation is slightly higher than the actual value of 2.236067977

Graphically:

Continuity
A function is continuous if you can sketch it without taking the pen of the page

A function is differentiable everywhere if it is smooth everywhere

Integration
E.g. ( 4 ) = 4 3
4 is an antiderivative of 4 3
Indefinite integral
The set of all antiderivatives is the indefinite integral.

4 3 = 4 +
Definite integral

()

Fundamental integral theorem

If () = (), then

() = () () = [()]

Using the fundamental integral theorem

Example:
() = ()
6
() = 5, (2) = 3
2

Find (6)

6
() = (6) (2)
2

(6) (3) = 5

(6) = 5 3 = 2

6 Formulae for Integration

+1
1. = + , 1
+1

2. 1 = log || +

3. = +

4. sin() = cos() +

5. cos() = sin() +

1
6. cos2
= tan() +
1 rule - the linear property

( () + ()) = () + ()

Substitution
1
(()) = (()) ()
()

Why?
()
= ()

1
= ()
()

Examples
( )

1
= (3 5)5 (3 5)
3
1
= (3 5)5 (3 5)
3
1 (3 5)6
= +
3 6

1
= 4+1 (4 + 1)
4
1
= 4+1 +
4

Recognition
Let () = 2 2 + 2
Find

1. Find the derivative of ()

() = 2 + 2

2. Then, find

() = 2 + 2

3. Integrate both sides

 () = 2 + 2

() = 2 + 2

2 = () 2

= (2 2 + 2 ) ( 2 + )

= 2 2 +

Areas
Area between two curves
Horizontal

= () ()

Vertical

1. Express in terms of

= 1 (), = 1 ()

2. Find area

= 1 ()h 1 ()

Curves crossing over

= () () + () ()

Bound by the x-axis

= ()

Average Function Value

1
= ()

Approximation
Area under a curve can be estimated by drawing rectangles

= ((0 ) + (1 ) + + (1 ))
= ((1 ) + (2 ) + + ( ))

Using trapeziums
+
=
2
AOS4 Probability &
Statistics
Steps when solving a probability problem
1. Define the variable
e.g. Let be the
2. State the distribution
E.g. table, ~(, ), ~(, 2 )
3. Write the information mathematically
4. CAS

Sample Space and Probability

A sample space
The set of all possible outcomes for a random experiment
E.g. Rolling a die; = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

You can list a sample space using the following:

List or table Tree diagrams

HHH
HHT
HTH
HTT
THH
THT
TTH
TTT

Venn diagram Karnaugh map

An event
Any subset of the sample space
E.g. Event is rolling and even number; = {2, 3, 6}

Probability of an event
The ratio of the outcomes in the event to the outcomes in the sample space

Equally likely outcomes

If a sample contains outcomes of equal probability (often assumed), then the probability
1
one outcome is
()
Then the probability of an event containing outcomes = Pr() = ()
=

Subjective probability
A guess

Probability from data

From experimentation
Proportion of successful trials is called the relative frequency (interchangeable with
proportion in most cases)
n(A)
Pr() n(trials) , for a large number of trials
Not very good way to estimate probability, but in many cases is the only way

From area

Rules & Relationships Between Events

Probability rules
Pr() 0
Pr() = 1
The sum of the probabilities of all outcomes = 1
Pr() = 0
Pr( ) = 1 Pr()
Addition rule: Pr( ) = Pr() + Pr() Pr( )

Relationships
Mutually Exclusive
Events and have no outcomes in common i.e. they cannot occur together
Pr( ) = Pr() + Pr()

Independent Events
If event does not effect the probability of
Pr(|) = Pr()
Pr( )
= Pr()
Pr()
Pr( ) = Pr() Pr()

Law of total probability

Pr() = Pr(|) Pr(B) + Pr(A|B ) Pr(B )
Discrete Random Variables
Random variable
A function that assigns a number to each outcome
Named by capital letter e.g.
Discrete
Countable
Usually a whole number
Continuous
Measureable
Takes any value in an interval of the real number line
Discrete probability distribution function
AKA probability mass function
() = Pr( = )
1 2 3 4 5

Pr( = ) 0.15 0.28 0.32 0.18 0.07

NOTE:
o Sum of all values of ():
() = 1

o Sum of values of () for :
() = Pr( )

Mode
The most frequently occurring outcome
E.g. 3
Percentiles
Median
o The middle outcome
E.g. 1 15 2 28 3 7 median 3 25 4 5
(15 + 28 + 7 = 50)
Quartile
o The values dividing the set of data into 4 equal parts
Percentile
o The values dividing a set of data into 100 equal parts
Expected value
AKA average or mean
In Further 1 15 + 2 28 + 3 32 + 4 18 + 5 7
() =
100

In Methods () = 1 0.15 + 2 0.28 + 3 0.32 + 4 0.18 + 5

0.07

() = = = ()

Standard deviation
A measurement of the average difference between each value and the mean
() = () = | | ()

( )2 Pr( = )

Variance
2
() = (()) = ( )2 Pr( = )

( 2 ) [()]2
( 2 ) 2
NOTE: ( 2 ) = 2 ()

( < < + ) = .

The linear property

( + ) = () +
( + ) = () +
( + ) = 2 ()

( + ) = () + ()

Using CAS
Copy values to table
Calc > One-variable > select lists > OK!

Binomial Distribution
The probability distribution of a random variable produced from a Bernoulli experiment
A Bernoulli experiment
1. The number of trials is fixed
2. There are two outcomes of each trial: success or failure
3. The probability of getting in each trail is constant
4. Each trial is independent (assumed)
Binomial distribution function
Example
A coin with Pr( = 0.6) is tossed 20 times.
Let be the number of .
0 1 2 3

Pr( 0.420 20 0.6 0.419 20

2 0.62 0.418 20
3 0.63 0.417
= )
General formula
Binomial probability density function
Pr( = ) = nr (1 )

n product of numbers from from top

r =
product of numbers from from bottom

201918
E.g. 203 = 123

Using CAS: Interactive > Distribution > Discrete > bionomialPdf

Cumulative distribution function

Pr( 3) = Pr( = 1) + Pr( = 2) + Pr( = 3)

Graph of the binomial distribution

Expected Value
() =
Variance
() = (1 )

nCr and Pascal's Triangle

E.g. 61 = 6; 62 = 15; 63 = 20

Continuous Random Variables

Can take any value in an interval of the real number line
Is measurable
Probability density function
is the probability density function of if

Pr( < < ) = ()

Or as a general extension:
(), < < 0
() = {
0, otherwise
Must satisfy:
() 0

() = 1

NOTE:
The values of are not probabilities
The value of any specific value of is 0
Pr( < < ) = Pr( )
 Improper integrals

lim () = 1 = ()
1 1
Possible complications with infinite limits, avoided in course.

Possible Questions
sin , 0
() = {
0, otherwise
Find the value of

Let 0 sin = 1
2
Find Pr (3 < < )
3
2
3 1
Evaluate
2
sin
3

Find expected value

Mean

() = = ()

(()) = ()()

Percentiles
is the value of the 'th percentile

() =

Median
Median means Pr( ) = Pr( > ) = 0.5

() = 0.5

Interquartile Range

1. () = 0.25

2. () = 0.75
3. IQR =
Variance
Var() = 2 = ( 2 ) 2

= ( )2 ()

Standard deviation
sd() = = Var()

( < < + ) = .
The linear property
( + ) = () +
( + ) = () +
( + ) = 2 ()

( + ) = () + ()

The Normal Distribution

The probability density function of normal random variables are symmetric bell curves.
Many data sets in nature have a bell-shaped distribution
The standard normal distribution

~(, 2 )

1 1 2
( )
() = 2 ,
2

= 0, = 1
Simplest form of the normal distrubtion
Almost all area between = 3 and = 3

The general normal distribution

Transformation of the standard normal distribution
Mapping from the standard normal

( , ) ( + , )

Mapping to the standard normal distribution (standardisation)

( , ) ( , )

Positive values indicate data above the mean
Negative values indicate data below the mean
If required to find or , use the transformation formula to standardise to .

Pr( ) = Pr ( )

Example: ATAR
Let be a study score from 0 - 50
Pr( < 40) = 0.91
 Pr( < 45) = 0.98

40
1. Pr ( <
) = 0.91
45
Pr ( < ) = 0.98

40

= invnorm(0.91) = 1.34076
2. Solve {45

= invnorm(0.98) = 2.05375

Rule for general normal distribution

1 1 2
( )
~() = 2
2
Centre determined by mean
Width determined by standard deviation
The 689599.7% Rule
For the normal distribution:
Pr( + ) 0.68
Pr( 2 + 2) 0.95
Pr( 3 + 3) .997

Notice then that

10.68
Pr( < ) = etc.
2

0.950.68
Pr( 2 = etc.
2

Using CAS
Finding probabilities under the curve
Determine percentiles of a distribution

Normal approximation to binomial distribution

Binomial distribution is approximately normal, given is not too small is not too close to 0 or 1.

~ (, (1 ))

Rule of thumb:
and (1 ) should be greater than 5 to approximate

Sampling
Statistics deals with samples and estimations. It uses knowledge of probability as a tool.
Populations
Population - the set of all eligible members of a group which we intend to study.
Using the whole population is often impractical:
o May be too large
o May be difficult to access
o Data collection may be destructive

Simple random samples

A sample where every member of the population has an equal chance of being included.

Method of choosing sample is very important e.g. names drawn out of a hat, random
selections from electorate roll

Generating random numbers using CAS

Population and Sample Ratios

Population proportion
The ratio of favourable outcomes in the population. It is a population parameter, a fixed number
not a variable.

h
=

Sample proportion
The ratio of favourable outcomes in the samples with fixed size. It is a sample statistic, which varies
from sample to sample.
 h
=

Sample proportions are the values of random variable .

Sample distribution
The probability distribution of variable .

Sampling from a small population

o Hypergeometric distribution
E.g. Suppose a bag contains 6 blue balls and 4 red balls. We take a sample size 4.
Number of blue 0 1 2 3 4
balls

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

1
Pr( = ) = (4 6
3)(1) (4 6
2)(2) (4 6
1)(3) (4 6
0)(4)
(10) = = = =
4 (10) (10) (10) (10)
1 4 4 4 4
24 90 80 15
210
210 210 210 210

Sampling from a large population

o Often populations are too large to count.
o We assume the number of favourable outcomes are binomially distributed i.e. the
probability remains constant for all trials
o The sample ratio is approximately normally distributed

E.g. Suppose 70% of 17-year-olds in Australia attend school. We take a sample size 4.
Let be the number of 17-year-olds at school in sample
~(4, 0.7)
0 1 2 3 4
0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1
=
4
4
Pr( = ) = Pr( 0 0.70 0.34 0.0756 0.2646 0.4116 0.2401
= ) = 0.0081
Mean
() = Pr( = )
=

Standard Deviation
2
( ) = (2 ) ()

(1 )
=

Distribution of the Sample Proportion
When the sample size is large, the sample proportion has an approximately normal distribution,
(1)
with mean = and standard deviation =

(1 )
~ (, )

Rule of thumb
and (1 ) should be greater than 5
Confidence Intervals
Point estimates
Using a sample proportion to estimate the population proportion

Interval Estimates
An interval estimate for the population proportion is called a confidence interval for .

An approximate 95% confidence interval for is given by:

(1 ) (1 )
( 1.96 , + 1.96 )

The interval that has 95% chance of containing the population ratio

Margin of error
(1 )
= 1.96

Estimate sample size

1.96 2
=( ) (1 )

Changing level of confidence

(1) (1)
% confidence level: (
, +
), where k is such that Pr( < < ) =
%