Project Proposal:

Predictive Disease Transmission modelling through Mapping

Done by:

Keep Mapping

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Introduction:

Problem statement

Pandemic diseases such as Ebola and SARS, once it occurs, will spread at a fast speed through
human populations over a large scale. Therefore, it is important to predict the future behavior
of pandemic disease to better control the situation. In this project, we use Ebola as study case.
The objective of this project is to analyse the medication condition effect on the spread of Ebola,
generate a suitable analytical model and an interactive map, which describes the Ebola case and
makes predictions for future behaviour. By using this model, people can take action and get
prepared beforehand, further reducing the cost and number of fatalities.

Methodology:
Data Extraction and Collection:

The data for our analysis and model construction is obtained from the World Health
Organisation. Being a large and reputable organisation, WHO has been actively involved in
planning, managing and giving treatments to patients in areas with diseases outbreaks. The
organisation keeps statistical reports on the outbreak of Ebola. The dataset from the WHO
contains the number of Ebola cases in different regions dated from November 2014 to May
2016. Hence, we are confident that we have a reliable quality and sufficient quantity of data.

Disease Outbreak Model Construction and statistical analysis of Data:

The model we use is a contagion model, SIR model with parameters from Networked Life. The
overall assumption is people will ultimately get recovered after a long time.
We assume that the contagion will spread without human interference at the early stage. We
could obtain an Ebola infection model without human interference by fitting the early stage
data with SIR model. Next, we will construct another model with human interference using the
later stage data when medication is stepped in. Then, by tuning the parameters, we will have
different hypothetical models of Ebola infection, showing how the situation could change
according to medication condition change. With these models, we can compare how human
medication effort can potentially help improve the situation.

Proposed Mapping of Spread of Ebola:

Data Visualization

While there are multiple types of visualizations to consider, we took into account several criteria
before deciding on an appropriate representation as shown below. Fig 1. and Fig 3. show a 2D
geospatial choropleth with circles quantifying intensity of disease. Fig 2. is an interactive
simulation that shows the number of deaths and recovered cases.

Firstly, the target audience for our data visualization is targeted at Government health agencies,
health researchers and policy makers. We hope that based on the analysis with reference to the
disease model, policy makers and government health agencies are able to make better decisions
to improve public health policy.

Finally, what are the important questions that our data visualization is supposed to answer?
Our data visualization should be able to show trends that might not be reflected in the model,
forecast the spread of similar diseases and measure whether medical needs are being met
adequately.