Landslide triggering rainfall thresholds

BACKGROUND

For rainfall-triggered landslides, researchers often present the triggering rainfall as a relationship
between rainfall intensity and duration. For example, Caine (1980) reported on the relationship
between threshold rainfall intensity and duration on the one hand and the occurrence of shallow
landslides and debris flows on the other. Caine summarised the data concerning a selection of 73
international reports of shallow landsliding and proposed a landslide triggering threshold rainfall
curve in the form:

I = 14.82 x D-0.39

where I is the rainfall Intensity in mm per hour and D is the duration of rainfall in hours. This curve
is shown in Figure 3. Any combination of I and D that plots below this curve will not trigger
landsliding. A comprehensive relationship of this type had not been developed in Australia until
recent UOW research and the analysis of August 1998 rainfall that is discussed later in this report.

For landsliding within the Wollongong region, several authors have reported on landslide
triggering rainfall magnitudes. Bowman (1972) concluded that catastrophic landslides occur after
rainfall of over 430mm in 1 month, and slides often occur after falls over 350mm per month.
Young (1976) proposed that a lower critical value of 250mm rainfall per month was likely to
initiate landslip. Longmac Associates (1991, reported in Pitsis 1992) found a poor correlation
between landsliding and one month antecedent rainfall totals. They concluded that a three
monthly period of antecedent rainfall correlated better with the occurrence of large-scale
landslides within the area between Stanwell Park and Coledale. In a geotechnical report for a
large landslide affecting Morrison Avenue in Coledale (site 77), Longmac Associates suggested a
three month threshold between 550mm and 650mm to trigger landsliding. In another report for
a landslide in Scarborough, site 64, Longmac Associates suggested that a one month rainfall total
exceeding 350mm was required to initiate landsliding, and a one month total of 250mm was
required for the continuation of the movement after first initiation.

Clearly, this is a complex issue and there is unlikely to be one simple answer. This is even more
complicated given the variety of landslide types, and landslide volumes that are known to occur
within the Wollongong region.
 Duration Versus Intensity
25.00 y = 14.82x-0.39
R = 1

20.00
Rainfall Intensity (mm/hr)

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00
0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
Duration (hr)

Figure 13. Station IDF curves superimposed upon landslide triggering threshold.

Duration (hr) Intensity (mm/hr)

0.4 21.19
0.5 19.42
1 14.82
2 11.31
3 9.66
6 7.37
12 5.62
24 (1day) 4.29
72 (3 day) 2.80
168 2.01
720 1.14
1440 0.87
2106 0.75
Based on these types of investigations, the UoW LRT has proposed the landslide triggering rainfall
threshold as shown as the solid dotted line in Figure 13. This is a regional type threshold, above
which disruptive type landslide movement can be expected to occur within the Wollongong
region. Again, this is superimposed on the IFD curves for Woonona rainfall station 68108 so that
the reader can gain an appreciation of the frequency of occurrence of these levels of rainfall. The
red and blue curves on Figure 13 have been derived from continuous monitoring of a landslide in
the northern suburbs during the 3 year period 2004 to 2006. The blue curve shows the rainfall
intensity duration relationship where the monitored landslide moved at up to 5mm during a
rainfall event. The red curve shows the rainfall intensity duration relationship where the
monitored landslide moved at up to 10.5mm during a rainfall event. Landslide movement of
greater magnitudes has not been recorded during the period of continuous monitoring.