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INTRODUCTION servation approach has been actively debated (11); although it is known
Global wildlife trade has attracted public attention in recent years be- that gross metrics of international trade generally correlate with the
cause it is a major driver of species extinctions around the world (1, 2), global distribution of invasive alien species (1214), exactly how trade
and because it helps promote the spread of invasive species (3) and of networks influence the success of biological invasions remains un-
diseases to both humans and other animals (4). Outright bans on known (15). However, this knowledge is key to effectively manage trade
wildlife trade of both threatened and potentially damaging species have networks in relation to their potential effects on global patterns of inva-
been proposed as a strategy to reduce its negative effects (5). This sive species establishment.
strategy can have major social and economic costs, so its effectiveness We assess how the topology of the global bird trade network relates
needs to be thoroughly evaluated. Arguably, the most prominent to the establishment of imported non-native bird species. We also in-
application of trade bans was enacted by the European Union (EU), vestigate how the unilateral EU import ban on wild-caught birds has
which placed a temporary ban on wild bird imports in October 2005 changed the species traded, their traded volumes, and the network of
to prevent the spread of avian influenza (6). The ban was made perma- trading relationships and balance among countries. To do so, we com-
nent in July 2007 and comprised all wild bird imports regardless of spe- bine a large data set on wild bird trade among biogeographical realms
cies conservation status (7). Although supported by a coalition of derived from CITES (Convention on International Trade in Endangered
conservation and animal welfare organizations (8), the decision was cri- Species of Wild Fauna and Flora) with the analysis of trade network
ticized on the grounds that blanket trade bans would risk stimulating topology. Our focus on birds and the EU import ban is especially rele-
illegal activities (9) and, when imposed by northern on southern con- vant because the EU has been, historically, the main importer of wild
stituencies, run counter to values of equity and sustainable development birds worldwide (16). Moreover, birds are among the most internation-
(10). Also, rather than reducing market demands, trade bans could lead ally traded animal taxa (17), and highly traded avian orders such as
to the opening of alternative markets and trade routes, thus contributing the Psittaciformes represent both the most threatened (18) and most
to spread of invasive species into areas otherwise disconnected from invasive (19) bird group. Results of our analysis have broader im-
major trade networks. The effectiveness of trade bans as a generic con- plications to understand the links between trade networks and bio-
logical invasions, and thus to devise trade policies reducing invasion
1
CIBIO/InBIO-Centro de Investigao em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genticos,
risks.
Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrrio de Vairo, Rua Padre Armando Quintas,
n9, 4485-661 Vairo, Portugal. 2CIBIO/InBIO-Centro de Investigao em Biodiver-
sidade e Recursos Genticos, Universidade de vora, 7004-516 vora, Portugal. RESULTS
3
CEABN/InBIO-Centro de Estudos Ambientais Prof. Baeta Neves, Instituto Superior
de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal. Avian invasion success is related to global fluxes of wild-caught birds,
4
LEAF-Linking Landscape, Environment, Agriculture and Food, Instituto Superior de and as expected, countries that import more birds are more prone to
Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisboa, Portugal. being invaded by birds (Table 1). In addition, a number of intrinsic
5
Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Calle Jos Gutirrez Abascal, 2,
28006 Madrid, Spain. 6Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural properties of the trade network topology also relate to invasion prob-
History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, ability. Regardless of levels of bird importation, countries that have a
2100 Copenhagen, Denmark. 7Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, more diversified number of importation sources (that is, high indegree
Museumsmeile Bonn, Adenauerallee 160, 53113 Bonn, Germany. 8Terrestrial Ecology
Unit, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 32, 9000 Ghent, Belgium. 9Evolutionary
centrality) are more likely to be invaded. The same is true for subgroups
Ecology Group, University of Antwerp, Campus Drie Eiken, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 of countries that form a dense interconnection of trading relationships
Wilrijk, Belgium. among themselves (that is, having a high clustering coefficient). Last,
*Present address: Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e invasion risks are higher for countries that have a more central position
Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Rua da Junqueira 100, 1349-
008 Lisboa, Portugal. in the whole trade network (that is, that have higher values for close-
Corresponding author. Email: diederik.strubbe@snm.ku.dk ness centrality; see Table 1). Before the EU ban (19952005), trade in
CITES-listed wild birds between biogeographical realms totalized ca. Europe, North America, and parts of Latin America and Asia (fig. S1).
1.3 million individuals annually. The EU bird trade ban reduced the importance of trade volume globally
The EU ban reduced trade volumes to about 10% of their former (dominant in 47% of countries) and increased the contribution of
levels while strongly redistributing the remaining trade flows across network parameters for explaining invasion success [closeness centrality
the globe (Figs. 1 and 2 and table S1). Before the ban, trade volume (27%), clustering coefficient (19%), indegree (6%); fig. S2]. In the period
was the dominant invasion risk parameter for 59% of countries globally, 19952005, European and North American countries were most central
followed by closeness centrality (27%), clustering coefficient (8%), and to the global trade network. After the ban, the United States remained
indegree (5%). Network parameters were especially influential across among the most densely connected trading countries, whereas EU
Table 1. Relationships between trade network topology and avian invasion. The variable quantity refers to the total number of individual of the species
that were imported. Indegree describes the number of countries from which a country imports birds. Closeness centrality indicates how close a country is to all
other countries in the trade network. The eigenvector centrality measures the influence of a country in the trade network, whereas betweenness centrality
measures the role of countries as pass-through centers. The clustering coefficient quantifies the extent to which a country is integrated into a subgroup of
countries that have a highly interconnected trade network among themselves. Avian invasion success was best explained by the quantity of birds traded and by
having more closely connected trade networks [that is, high values for indegree centrality, closeness centrality, and the clustering coefficient; model deviance
information criteria (DIC) weight, 0.82; DDIC with the second-best model > 3]. Quantity and indegree centrality were also included in the second-best model, as
was betweenness centrality, but this model was only weakly supported (DIC weight, 0.16). All other models had virtually no support (all DIC weights 0.021).
Fig. 1. Global wild bird trade fluxes. Flows of wild bird trade among different biogeographical regions, before (A) and after (B) the EU ban.
member states were replaced by predominantly Asian nations and about 75% belonged to 12 Afrotropical species, with the main trade
South Africa (table S2). Overall, network parameter values were reduced fluxes concentrated from West Africa to western Europe (fig. S6 and
to 18 to 21% of their former levels (fig. S3), and this reduction was es- tables S4 and S5). Parrots and allies (Psittaciformes) were the second
pecially strong across the western Palearctic (table S3). Corresponding- most traded group (17.5% of trade). As for passerines, main trade fluxes
ly, overall avian invasion risks have decreased strongly across much of were toward western Europe, but they came from a more varied range
the globe, and especially so in (western) Europe, where invasion risks of source countries across South and Central America, South Africa,
were the highest before the ban. Minor to moderate increases in inva- and Southeast Asia (fig. S7 and tables S4 and S5).
sion risk attributable to rerouted trade flows are apparent especially in After the EU ban, exports toward the western Palearctic and exports
the Nearctic and, to a lesser extent, in parts of the Indo-Malay and Afro- from the Afrotropical region were reduced to a mere 1.25% (Table 2)
tropical regions (Fig. 3 and figs. S4 and S5). Almost 90% of pre-ban trade and 4.34% (Table 3) of their pre-ban level, respectively. The Neotropical
fluxes corresponded to imports into the western Palearctic, mainly region gained importance as a main source of wild birds, generating
coming from the Afrotropical region, with secondary fluxes from the over 50% of global wild bird exports (Table 3). The role of the EU as
Neotropical and Indo-Malayan regions (Fig. 1 and Tables 2 and 3). the predominant bird importer shifted toward other regions, principally
Before the ban, a small set of countries was responsible for a large to the Nearctic, and especially to Mexico and the United States, where
share of global wild bird trade because, overall, about 66% of global bird imports increased from over 23,000 to more than 82,000 birds annually
imports were made by only five EU countries (Belgium, Italy, Netherlands, (Figs. 1 and 2, Table 2, and table S1). The Indo-Malay and Afrotropical
Portugal, and Spain), whereas three West African countries (Guinea, regions also gained (relative) importance in the global trade network,
Fig. 2. Annual number of birds exported to different biogeographical realms (19952011). Total annual numbers of imported birds (A), passerines (B), and parrots
and cockatoos (C). Color codes correspond to the different biogeographical regions depicted in Fig. 1 (light blue, western Palearctic; red, eastern Palearctic; yellow,
Indo-Malay; green, Nearctic; brown, Neotropical; dark blue, Afrotropical; pink, Australasia).
Fig. 3. Trade bandriven changes in avian invasion risk. Predicted changes in wild bird tradedriven invasion risk caused by the EU wild bird import ban. Country-
level invasion risk estimates were obtained by summing model invasion probabilities for all bird species exported to a given country in the pre-ban (19952005) versus
post-ban (20062011) period. Green and orange hues indicate decreases and increases in invasion risk, respectively; color gradients are on the same scales; and maps
have been drawn using equally spaced intervals. Invasion risks have most strongly declined across (western) Europe, whereas more moderate increases can be ob-
served across parts of the Nearctic and Indo-Malay regions.
Table 2. Annual number of birds exported to different biogeographical realms before and after the 2005 EU ban.
Before the EU ban (19952005) After the EU ban (20062011)
Number of individuals Number of species Number of individuals Number of species
Australasia 33 19 1 3
Table 3. Annual number of birds exported from different biogeographical realms before and after the 2005 EU ban.
Before the EU ban (19952005) After the EU ban (20062011)
Number of individuals Number of species Number of individuals Number of species
pre-ban volumes, respectively; table S1). The taxonomic composition of number of birds traded is one of the most important factors in
the trade also changed, because passerine birds are no longer the dom- determining avian invasion risk, and the EU bird trade ban has
inant traded taxon (annual trade volumes in the period 20062011 effectively reduced global bird invasion risks. However, alternative trade
amounted to only 2.40% of the pre-ban volume; tables S4 and S5). Parrot routes have opened since then, leading to potential increases in invasion
trade declined as well (on average about 45% of its pre-ban volumes; risks in countries that otherwise had remained relatively less affected by
tables S4 and S5), although trade volumes had recovered to almost bird invasions. Remaining trade flows have also been redirected toward
60% of their pre-ban levels by 2011 (Fig. 2). Consequently, parrots are developing countries, mainly around the tropical belt where biodiversity
now the most traded group (accounting for 78% of global annual trade), is high but resources to manage invasive species are limited (20).
followed by Passeriformes (at 19%). Global changes in trade volumes, however, cannot alone predict the
magnitude, sometimes even the direction, of regional changes in invasion
risk. Network centrality measures are also needed to reliably predict in-
DISCUSSION vasion risk. For example, in the Nearctic, exports to both Mexico and
We show how detailed characterization of trade networks can reveal the the United States increased and yet invasion risk declined in the former
strong connection between global trade pressure and success in but increased in the latter (Fig. 3). This asymmetry seems to be a con-
biological invasions. The drastic drop in the global number of birds (le- sequence of the United States holding on to its central position in the
gally) traded following the 2005 EU ban on bird trade underscores the global trade network (indegree was largely stable, and closeness central-
importance of internationally coordinated policies in conservation. The ity and clustering coefficient increased; table S2 and figs. S1 and S2). In
contrast, Mexicos influx of bird trade is largely driven by a strong in- risks (fig. S8). Therefore, to better understand how shifting trade
crease in imports of monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus), resulting in patterns influence species introductions and invasion success, we re-
increased invasion rates for this single species only (21). Whereas before commend that implementations of graph theory can be used to inte-
the EU ban, 47 countries exported 189 different bird species to Mexico, grate CITES trade data with actual international trade statistics (for
after the ban, trade was limited to 13 countries exporting only 55 species, example, see UN Comtrade, https://comtrade.un.org). Furthermore, fu-
and the country became more marginal to global trade network ture assessments should take into account the environmental suitability
(network centrality measures fell to 14 to 69% of their former levels; of the non-native area to which traded species are transported. These
table S2 and figs. S1 and S2). This interplay between trade volumes and assessments could be achieved through correlative modeling of climatic
network centrality generates complex, regional dynamics in invasion risk, similarities between native and invaded areas [for example, see the
necessitating the use of network models to obtain more realistic predictions studies of Thuiller et al. (12), Capinha et al. (14), and Cardador et al.
of how trade politics affect pathways and success of biological invasions. (36)]. However, predictions of environmental suitability assume perfect
East Asia is a region with a prominent culture of bird keeping and transferability of realized niches, which is generally unlikely (37).
strong economic development (22, 23), and as wild bird trade in the Changes in the shape and size of realized niches between native and
region has declined to a lesser extent than globally, it has gained a more invaded ranges can result in both over- and underprediction of the
prominent role in the global bird trade network. However, whereas our extent of area suitable for species establishment (38), so caution would
results lead to predicting a decline in trade-driven invasion risk in parts be required when interpreting the results of pooled network and
of East Asia, recent studies suggest that the rate of avian invasions in the environmental suitability analyses. We note that our data set on suc-
region is increasing (24, 25). This apparent discrepancy might be a con-
documentation of trade, CITES represents the only global, legally such that the nodes refer to countries and edges refer to the trade
binding, convention addressing international trade in wildlife in a observed between an exporter and an importer country. The weight of
structured and verifiable manner, and it constitutes a valuable source the edge is represented by the quantity of birds traded. We selected the
of information to assess the relationships between species invasions following metrics to describe the topological properties of countries in
and international trade. the trade network: indegree, closeness centrality, eigenvector centrality,
Data were downloaded from the CITES database, using the global betweenness centrality, and clustering coefficient. The variable indegree
checklist Catalogue of Life (www.catalogueoflife.org) as the taxonomic describes the number of incoming links (edges) to a country (node),
authority. Queries on the database were performed at the genus level, thus reporting the number of countries from which a certain country
for the periods 19952005 (before the EU ban) and 20062011 (after the imports birds. Closeness centrality indicates how closely connected a
EU ban), using the following criteria: live for trade term, all coun- country is to all other countries in the trade network, considering the
tries for export and import countries, wild for source of species, shortest path between countries. We calculated this metric on an
and all purposes for purpose of trade transaction. We selected these inverted networksource and target countries were swappedso that
periods because by 1995, 75% of the parties had already signed the con- the parameter measures the average of the number of steps in the trade
vention, and data could be considered representative of general, global network between the exporter (source) and the importer (target)
trade patterns. Also, from 1995 onward, the accuracy of the database country. The higher the value is, the more central (shortest distance)
improved by the implementation of taxonomic and species distribution the country is, that is, the shorter the trade routes of imported birds
checks. The year of 2011 was chosen as the upper limit to allow for the are. The eigenvector centrality is another measure of the influence
global databases on avian invasions compiled by Dyer et al. (19), SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
Lever (45), and Sol et al. (46). In addition, for each of the 566 species Supplementary material for this article is available at http://advances.sciencemag.org/cgi/
retained, we searched Google Scholar with the search string invasive content/full/3/11/e1700783/DC1
table S1. CITES bird trade data before and after the 2005 EU ban.
OR non-native AND species scientific name using the time period table S2. Overview of the 10 highest-ranked countries in terms of network centrality measures.
19952016. For each species, we checked the title and abstract of up table S3. Overview of network parameter values per biogeographical region.
to the first 100 hits to decide whether the mentioned (scientific or gray table S4. Birds annually exported to different biogeographical realms.
literature) report might hold information on introduction events to table S5. Birds annually exported from different biogeographical realms.
table S6. Invasion events of CITES-listed species before and after the 2005 EU ban.
non-native ranges. When uncertainty existed on the status of introduc- fig. S1. Highest-ranking trade volume/network structure parameters in the period 19952005.
tion events (that is, successful invasion or not), we searched for recent fig. S2. Highest-ranking trade volume/network structure parameters in the period 19952005.
species observations on the online databases eBird (http://ebird. fig. S3. Histograms of network centrality measures in the period 19952005 versus 20062011.
org), iNaturalist (www.inaturalist.org), and Global Biodiversity fig. S4. Global wild bird tradedriven invasion risk in the period 19952005.
fig. S5. Global wild bird tradedriven invasion risk in the period 20062011.
Information Facility (www.gbif.org). In addition, we consulted a
fig. S6. Trade fluxes of CITES-listed passerine birds in the period 19952005.
leading bird trip report repository (www.cloudbirders.com). For 21 of fig. S7. Trade fluxes of CITES-listed Psittaciformes birds in the period 19952005.
566 bird species complying with our inclusion criteria, we found fig. S8. Discrepancies between exporter- and importer-listed quantities of traded wild birds.
qualified, successful invasion events. In total, 42 (36 pre-ban versus
6 post-ban) successful invasion events were uncovered across 23 dif-
ferent countries (table S6).
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