Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Contents
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 384
The Chemical Industry Value Chain: From Feedstocks to Final Users . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 387
Feedstocks: Fossil History and Biomass Contenders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 389
Gas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 392
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 394
Biomass . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 397
Future Trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399
Concerns About Resource Sustainability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 399
Unconventional Oil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402
Impacts of Energy Use by the Petrochemical Industry . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 403
Primary Sources of Greenhouse Gases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 404
Geographical Variations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406
Implications of and Response to Climate Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409
Efciency Gains and CHP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 410
Combined Heat and Power (CHP) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 412
Recycling and Waste Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 413
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 415
Bioreneries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419
Future Directions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 422
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 423
Abstract
For over half a century, society has relied on the products of the organic chemical
industry to supply the clothes we wear, the food we eat, our health, housing,
transportation, security, and other commodities. Approximately 92 % of organic
chemical products are derived from oil and gas. In addition, these same resources
are generally used to provide the large quantities of process heat and power needed
by the industry. In the modern petrochemical industry, oil and gas inputs for both
raw material and process energy compose around 50 % of the operating costs.
Not only is the chemical industry (including petrochemicals) the industrial
sector with the highest emissions worldwide, it is also very vulnerable to varia-
tions in fossil fuel prices and, potentially, climate policies. Efciency has long
been a major factor in determining competitiveness in petrochemicals, and the
sector has a high success rate in reducing its energy intensity. Yet, while global
use of oil for energy grew globally by 12 % between 2002 and 2012, the use of oil
for chemical feedstocks grew 21 %. It now represents 9 % of total global oil use
and 6 % of total global gas use. Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in an
industry that is so dependent on fossil fuels presents a signicant challenge.
This chapter introduces the history of the modern chemical industry and the
establishment of its close relationship with the oil industry. This relationship has
recently come under strain as new sources of oil and gas are increasingly
exploited, and growth in hydrocarbon demand for chemical products outpaces
that for energy from these sources. It goes on to describe some of the major
chemical processes, their GHG emissions, and their geographical variations. The
benets and challenges of several technological mitigation options are discussed.
These are recycling, efciency gains through cogeneration, CO2 capture and
storage (CCS), and feedstock switching via biorening.
Introduction
Many of the chapters in this book describe the potential for renewable and
low-carbon technologies to reduce the rate of emissions of greenhouse gases from
human activity. Other chapters address key components in these efforts, recognizing
the energy sector as the major source of greenhouse gases (GHG) worldwide, the
crucial role of energy efciency and carbon capture technologies, and the importance
of individual consumption patterns. However, all of these components impact (and
are impacted by) the petrochemical industry. It permeates our daily lives and is one
of the global economys most important industrial sectors. Moreover, it faces
implications from climate change not only in terms of its energy consumption and
greenhouse gas emissions but also in terms of its very feedstock. The petrochemical
industrys complex integration with fossil fuels is uniquely challenging in the
climate change landscape and must be understood in its own right.
The chemical industry has for many decades been highly integrated with the
prevailing energy system. In general, the organic chemical industry derives both its
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 385
Fig. 1 Global growth in oil use for chemical feedstocks and energy, indexed to 1971 (IEA 2014b)
energy requirements and its raw materials from petroleum, making it both a heavy
emitter of GHG and also highly dependent on fossil fuels: in the modern petrochem-
ical industry, around 50 % of the operating costs are due to oil and gas inputs for both
raw materials and process energy.
Overall, approximately 97 % of chemical products are produced from petroleum
(including natural gas), while coal delivers 0.4 % of chemical feedstock globally, by
energy content (IEA 2014b). The amount of oil used for chemical feedstocks
continues to grow globally, at a rate of 4 % per year, representing an increasing
proportion of growing global oil (total global oil use has grown at a rate of 1.4 % per
year) (Fig. 1). The primary product from the petrochemical industry is plastics, and
as plastics consumption has increased with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita,
worldwide demand for plastics is expected to rise rapidly as the average wealth
increases, particularly in emerging economies with very large populations (De Vries
et al. 2006; Andre et al. 2014). Demand for petrochemical products has not yet
reached saturation point, and the industry is expected to grow for some time yet.
Indeed, the diversity and high functionality of petrochemical products have
resulted in their use across our daily lives. Some have simply replaced existing
materials in society, taking the place of wood or metal. Others have created new
opportunities, now essential to our modern lives. Over the last 50 years, society has
become reliant on the products of the organic chemical industry to supply not only
plastics but the clothes we wear, the food we eat, health products and pharmaceu-
ticals, secure housing, transportation, security, and numerous other commodities
(Wittcoff and Reuben 1980).
In addition, derivative products from petrochemical feedstocks are also pervasive
throughout the industrial economy. Products generally undergo numerous stages of
processing and are each transferred between rms within the value chain for further
processing, such that the industry as a whole consumes more than a quarter of its
own production. Petrochemical products can be divided into categories of bulk
386 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
and speciality. Bulk organic chemicals are generally commodity products that are
produced in large volumes and compete with one another on price. They include the
major platform chemicals such as ethylene, propylene, and benzene and each of their
immediate derivatives. Methanol, ethanol, and commodity polymers (including
many fabrics and plastics) are also considered bulk products. Meanwhile speciality
chemicals cater to specic custom markets and generally compete on the basis of
technological expertise that can provide a greater added-value to their products.
These end products typically include speciality high-performance plastics, fabrics,
paints, pigments, and cosmetics.
While chemical production does not dominate the fossil industries, it does
account for a signicant share of the fossil resources. In the United States, approx-
imately 3.4 % of a barrel of oil is used for chemical products, while nearly 20 times
that amount (70.6 %) goes to fuel uses (Marshall 2007). This ratio is slightly higher
for Europe, where 9 % is used for chemical feedstocks, as oil (naphtha) dominates
natural gas for bulk chemical production in this region (IEA 2014b). Despite the
differences in production volumes, the values of the two industries are comparable,
due to the higher retail value of petrochemical products relative to oil-derived fuels.
However, the industry is changing. High oil prices at the beginning of the twenty-
rst century have combined with the shifts in the global economy to accelerate the
petrochemical industrys migration eastward, from Europe and North America
toward the Middle East and Asia Pacic. The former, in particular, offers opportu-
nities to exploit low-cost liqueed petroleum gas (LPG) feedstocks, which are an
associated by-product of oil rening and therefore widely available where oil
production costs are low. Recent economic growth in Asia Pacic meanwhile has
seen rapidly changing ownership structures of petrochemical companies and invest-
ment in new plants, with this region rapidly increasing its global share of the
petrochemical sector (Lewe et al. 2012). Additionally, the shale gas revolution
in the United States has seen North American natural gas prices decouple from
global oil prices, leaving European naphtha-based chemical production increasingly
exposed. Such changes are not entirely without precedent, and concern about
volatile feedstock costs and potential oil supply constraints instigated a debate
about the sustainability of petroleum-based products years ago (Hodges 2009;
Koopmans 2006). Furthermore, growing concern about climate change and increas-
ingly stringent GHG regulations are now driving the organic chemical industry to
revise its energy use for the future and assess its process routes. Economic motiva-
tion, greenhouse gas reduction, and supply security are all acting as drivers toward
greater energy efciency and renewed interest in use of alternative feedstocks.
This chapter introduces the history of the modern chemical industry and the
establishment of its close relationship with the oil industry a relationship that has
recently come under strain. It goes on to describe some of the major chemical
processes, their GHG emissions, and their geographical variations. The main focus
of the chapter is a discussion of the benets and challenges of three main techno-
logical mitigation options: efciency gains, CO2 capture and storage, and feedstock
switching. The interaction of these options with the main climate policy instruments
in Europe, and worldwide, is considered.
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 387
Organic chemicals are those that contain a structure based on carbon, usually in
combination with hydrogen. Although there is no ofcial denition, organic
chemicals are widely understood to be the carbon-containing compounds associated
with life (such as sugars and proteins) or the hydrocarbons present in fossil fuels. Oil,
gas, and coal contain largely pure hydrocarbons with a carbon backbone of varying
length, dependent on the source, and without a high prevalence of heteroatoms, such
as oxygen, nitrogen, or metals. This gives them high energy densities and also makes
them particularly suitable for chemical production.
Extracted hydrocarbon feedstocks rst undergo pretreatment or fractionation,
before being processed to produce targeted chemicals and products. Overall, the
seven organic chemicals with the largest production volumes can be divided into
three groups: olens (e.g., ethylene, propylene, butadiene); aromatics, based on a
six-carbon ring (e.g., benzene, toluene, xylene); and methanol, being the most basic
alcohol. Global production of benzene alone in 2012 was 43 million tons (Mt) with
current aromatics production amounting to 115 Mt each year; 2012 saw ethylene and
propylene production reach 220 Mt, and methanol production in 2012 (most of
which was used to make other chemicals) was around 58 million Mt (IEA 2013a).
Some of the petrochemical industrys key molecular structures are shown in Table 1.
Each of these can then be processed again and sold on, either to nal consumers or to
new industries for further processing.
Production of one chemical, such as acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) rubber,
can be used to exemplify the complexity of such a value chain and highlights the
many stages between fossil fuel and nal product (Fig. 2). The fundamental building
block for this material is 13-butadiene, which is used to make polybutadiene.
Hydrocarbon feedstock (such as LPG or naphtha) is rst cracked to provide the
unsaturated olen platform chemicals: ethylene, propylene, and butadiene. This
production of bulk chemicals will typically occur at an integrated petrochemical
and rening site. The crude butadiene is then separated using solvent extraction. This
can take place remotely, in which case the crude butadiene is shipped or piped to an
extraction unit; however, most extraction units are located close to the olen cracker
since butadiene is gaseous, meaning that signicant energy is required to liquefy and
transport it. Butadiene monomer is then polymerized to polybutadiene, which is
subsequently copolymerized with styrene and acrylonitrile to make ABS resin. ABS
resin is then sold to manufacturers who wish to take advantage of the thermoplastics
lightness, rigidity, insulating properties, and recyclability. These properties are
388 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
Table 1 Formulae and structures of the main hydrocarbons used in fuel and chemical production
(with the exception of methane, only carboncarbon bonds are shown as lines. Hydrogen atoms are
omitted)
Example
Group hydrocarbons Formulae Structures
Natural Methane CH4 H
gas
H H
H
Olens Ethylene, propylene, C2H2, C3H6,
butadiene C4H6
LPG Ethane, propane, C2H4, C3H8,
butane C4H10
BTX Benzene, toluene, C6H6, C7H8,
xylenes C8H10
valued across many sectors, and ABS is used for a wide range of nal products for
sale to end users: from car parts, drain pipes, and electronic products to Lego bricks
and even tattoo inks.
From this example, it is clear that the industrys supply chains are varied and
complex. Firstly, the downstream users of butadiene, polybutadiene, and ABS are
usually very different rms to the major petrochemical companies that extract fossil
resources and produce the primary bulk chemicals (Morrow 1990). Secondly, it
should be noted that styrene and acrylonitrile are both produced from olens: styrene
from ethylene and acrylonitrile from propylene. Each of the value chain steps is
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 389
Crude oil +
(distillation products)
CN
Steam
Energy
cracking
Energy Energy
n x y z
CN
highly integrated with one another, and as such there are inherent complexities in
inuencing change in any one step: they cannot be treated in isolation. This also
indicates the large amount of process energy required for petrochemical production,
most of which also comes from petroleum sources. Overall, one kilogram of ABS
requires approximately two kilograms of petroleum in both feedstock and energy.
Petrochemicals are doubly connected to the petroleum industry, and while this
chapter deals with each of these relationships in turn, it is important to note that
they are very closely integrated.
Oil
After crude oil is extracted, it is distilled to separate the major components, most
of which are further processed to deliver liquid transportation fuels. In terms of
tonnage, the primary energy products are diesel (31 %), gasoline (25 %), jet fuel
(6 %), and residual fuel oil which is often used in power generation (15 %). The
proportions of the different products are determined by the nature of the oil
whether it contains mostly short or long chain molecules which varies between
locations and between oil wells. However, renery operators have some exibility to
manipulate these values to meet demand, as is evident from a brief consideration of
the history of oil demand and supply.
History
In 1850, when James Parafn Young rst patented his method of oil distillation, it
was the illuminating properties of the kerosene product that ensured his technology a
bright future (Redwood 2009). The early US oil-rening business continued to target
the production of lighting, and throughout the supremacy of Standard Oil, liquid
kerosene lamp fuel determined how reneries were designed. Kerosene was the only
valuable product of otherwise dirty and unpleasant crude. The development of the
internal combustion engine had demonstrated a use for one of the other distillates,
but motoring did not take off until the 1920s and 1930s at which point there was not
enough by-product to meet the demand (Levingston 2006). The story of the oil
renery is one adjustment to new technologies that maximizes output of products for
the most attractive markets. The development of thermal cracking increased the
petrol yield, and its replacement with catalytic cracking then opened the way for
selling higher purity coproducts to the chemical and electricity industries, among
others (Nguyen et al. 2005).
The use of oil for chemical production began in the United States with the
manufacture of ethylene derivatives for solvents, in particular ethylene glycol and
tetraethyl lead, whose functions as antifreeze and antiknocking additives went hand-
in-hand with the manufacture of gasoline during the huge expansion in automobile
ownership through the 1920s. The feedstock for this was primarily renery
off-gases, which were in plentiful supply adjacent to the oil reneries on the Gulf
Coast of the United States (Spitz 1988). Since that point, the history of petrochem-
icals has been one of close interaction with the oil rening industry. At each turn,
innovative chemists have found ways of tailoring fuel products to meet the needs of
new engine technologies, such as production of high-octane fuel for military aircraft
in the 1930s (Ogston 1997), and they have increasingly found new outlets for unused
distillation fractions as chemical products. Early ethylene-based products built on
existing acetylene lighting technology and targeted existing product families like
solvents, surfactants, and lubricants. These product families were expanded to
integrate other olen raw materials and were based predominantly on small reactive
molecular entities. For example, isopropyl alcohol from olenic propylene was
Standard Oils rst petroleum-based chemical product in 1920 (Mann 1966).
The mid-1930s saw major breakthroughs in the eld of polymer science, causing
a major revolution in organic chemical production. The theory developed by
Hermann Staudinger revealed that small, reactive chemicals could be purposefully
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 391
Now
The story is different still for the Middle East, in particular Saudi Arabia, where the
exploitation of abundant sources of LPG (liqueed petroleum gas: propane and
butane) for chemicals has been a relatively recent development. This is because
petrochemicals production requires sizeable investment in local infrastructure,
requiring a more complex industrial strategy than the rapid returns delivered by
392 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
investment in oil production and export. Combined with a lack of local demand for
high-value chemical products, this led to delays in investment. Today, the continued
shift of reneries eastwards is threatening to relegate European naphtha crackers to
become marginal suppliers of ethylene and propylene, and as long-term projections
of oil prices indicate an increase over the coming decades, the dominance of LPG in
the Middle East is expected to become further entrenched (Hodges et al. 2008).
In summary, the current utilization of petroleum as the major organic chemical
feedstock and its options for greater sustainability must be understood in the context
of the petrochemicals industrys codevelopment with fuel-orientated oil rening. The
close integration of these two industries has resulted in highly efcient manufacturing
complexes, with designs that have evolved over ve decades. It is generally expected
that this relationship will continue to determine the technologies, product mixes, and
the economics of organic chemical production for some time to come.
Gas
Natural gas is an increasingly important feedstock and energy source for the
petrochemical industry, with 183 Mt of natural gas used for chemical feedstocks in
2012, representing 6.4 % of that used for energy (IEA 2014b). The primary com-
ponent of natural gas is methane, though ethane, propane, and heavier hydrocarbons
may also be present in much smaller quantities. The carbon-hydrogen covalent bond
in methane is exceptionally strong and requires a lot of energy to break, which to
some extent limits its use as a building block for organic chemicals. However,
natural gas is the primary source of hydrogen worldwide, through the steam
reforming processing of methane to yield hydrogen and carbon dioxide. Hydrogen
produced by this method is widely used in the chemical industry, in particular for the
production of ammonia via the Haber process. Indeed, of the 50 Mt of hydrogen
produced each year, approximately half goes to ammonia production, of which 80 %
is then further processed to fertilizers (Da Rosa 2009; DOE 2013). Steam reforming
of methane in this way releases large quantities of CO2, which means that ammonia
production is a signicant emitter of CO2, especially when the energy intensity of the
Haber process is also considered. Depending on feedstock and process, CO2 emis-
sions have been estimated to vary from around 1.1 t of CO2 per ton of ammonia in
Spain to 1.3 t in the United States and 3.4 t in Belgium (Bosch and Kuenen 2009).
Due to the costs of transporting gases, the use of gas has historically been limited
by local availability. However, natural gas is seen to occupy a different market niche
to oil, and where it is readily available, natural gas can be an attractive source of
carbon for organic chemical feedstocks. When compared to LPG or naphtha feed-
stocks, its use is often associated with lower CO2, and it benets from being
relatively independent of the markets for other petroleum renery products.
Research into chemical conversion of natural gas is ongoing, and the advent of
shale gas (discussed later in this chapter) has renewed interest into the economic
conversion of methane to useful longer chain hydrocarbon building blocks, such as
olens (Ren and Patel 2009; Barteau and Kota 2014).
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 393
History
Gas has had a very different history to oil, since the cost of compression or pipeline
construction for transportation historically precluded international trade. This has led
to innovation in gas to chemical production in certain remote locations with abun-
dant gas but little local demand for energy. In New Zealand, for example, following
the discovery of natural gas, two plants were established in the early 1980s to
convert methane to methanol. The rst step of this process used steam reforming
of methane to give carbon monoxide and hydrogen. Up to 6,700 t crude methanol
was produced each day. Part of this was upgraded to gasoline via the Mobil process,
and part was exported as chemical grade methanol for further processing in the main
foreign petrochemical facilities (Dry 1988; NZIC 1988). At the time, this represented
the worlds largest methanol production capacity, and the two plants found a crucial
market niche for chemical production from natural gas in an area with relatively low
energy demand.
In addition to use as a feedstock, the petrochemical industry also uses natural gas
to provide the process heat and electricity that power petrochemical facilities
(Table 2). Heat is used in nearly all petrochemical processes, and there has been
considerable interest in replacing the fuels used to heat petrochemical plants and
reneries typically crude oil and waste petroleum products from the conversion
processes with more efcient natural gas, which can reduce process costs and
energy-related carbon emissions. Petroleum fuel products can then instead be used
for feedstock or for higher-quality energy products.
Table 2 Fossil fuel consumption figures for the world and OECD in 2012 (IEA 2014b)
Total Used as Percentage of total Percentage of
primary Energy used by organic primary energy total primary
energy chemical chemical supply used by energy supply
supply industry (incl. feedstock chemical industry used as
(billion petrochemicals) (billion (incl. petrochemical
GJ) (billion GJ) GJ) petrochemicals) feedstock
World
Oil and 176.2 2.0 16.6 10.5 % 9.4 %
oil
products
Natural 119.1 4.0 7.7 9.8 % 6.4 %
gas
Coal 162.1 2.9 0.1 1.9 % 0.06 %
OECD
Oil and 79.8 0.8 8.9 12.2 % 11.1 %
oil
products
Natural 56.3 2.4 1.4 6.8 % 2.5 %
gas
Coal 42.4 0.5 0.04 1.2 % 0.09 %
394 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
Now
Use of natural gas has grown steadily over the last few decades. In part this is due to
the increase in economically viable transport and use of liqueed natural gas (LNG),
which has allowed much wider use of the fuel without the need for pipelines.
Construction of LNG terminals has grown at a rapid rate in recent decades: from a
capacity of around 55 million tons per annum (mtpa) in 1990 to more than 220 mtpa
in 2010, with a slower rate of growth in recent years as 2013 saw LNG trade of
around 240 mtpa (Wood 2013). The shipping of LNG has opened up new markets
for natural gas and facilitated its use in regions without natural gas resources.
Nevertheless, there still remains considerable interest in conversion of natural gas
to methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), and especially gasoline for export. Perhaps the
most notorious case is that of Qatar, where methanol production is proceeding
alongside LNG and gasoline production from natural gas.
In addition to the new opportunities from LNG, the shale revolution in the
United States has helped to trigger new interest in the use of this feedstock for
chemical production. The boom of shale gas discoveries has lowered the price of
natural gas in the United States, and there has been signicant investment in
optimizing olen production from readily available, low-cost shale gas sources.
Use of shale gas for ethylene production in particular is lowering prices and
reinvigorating North American chemicals production (Platts 2013).
Switching from oil or coal to gas for heat and power provision can be particularly
attractive in the petrochemical industry due to the sectors consistent demand for
heat and power in numerous processes requiring a higher energy quality, including
pumps, instruments, and motors. In addition, there has been increasing attention paid
to the concept of heat integration in recent years. Provision of heat and power via
heat cogeneration, or combined heat and power (CHP), plants (IEA 2014c) offers
a particular opportunity for cost and carbon reduction: through heat integration, CHP
can be 50 % more efcient than supplying steam and electricity separately. Thus, as a
consequence of higher fuel costs and ever more stringent environmental legislation,
CHP is increasingly being incorporated into petrochemical sites. At present,
Europes largest gas-fuelled CHP plant is capable of generating 1,240 MW with a
thermal efciency over 70 % while providing steam and power to the petrochemical
and rening processes at Immingham in the UK. The role of CHP is addressed in
more detail toward the end of this chapter.
Coal
Coal is typically higher in oxygen content and has a lower H/C atomic ratio than
petroleum or gas. Additionally, unlike oil or gas, solid coal must undergo conversion
through gasication or other processes before it can be used for further chemical
manufacture (Speight 2012). However, this processing can be justied when there
are abundant local resources or when access to oil and gas is limited. Particularly in
coal-rich countries, such as China and Indonesia, coal feedstock continues to play an
important role in the petrochemical industry.
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 395
History
Coal was the original energy source and feedstock for the organic chemical industry
when it evolved from the early British coal tar pigment industry in the late nineteenth
century. Indeed, it has been remarked that the synthetic dye industry became the
synthetic-everything-else-industry (Belt 1987, p. 136). In addition to the aromatic
chromophores (naphthalene, anthracene, and benzene derivatives) that were
obtained from coal tar, coal was gasied to yield acetylene and synthesis gas
(syngas) which could be upgraded to produce some basic synthetic chemicals. By
the end of the 1930s, German and US coal-based chemistry had developed to a stage
where liquid fuel, rubber, plastics, solvents, lubricants, and many other chemical
products were commercially manufactured from coal. Coal-based chemistry laid the
foundations for the modern petrochemical industry, often via carbon monoxide as an
intermediate. In 1938, DuPont claimed that in the eld of carbon monoxide
chemistry, they had an answer to anything the oil companies can do from hydro-
carbon gases (Reader 1975, p. 321). However, by this time, coal had already been
replaced by petroleum as the primary organic chemical feedstock in the United
States and was about to be overtaken in the UK. Figure 3 shows the transition
from coal to oil-based chemicals in the UK. This mirrors the substitution of coal by
oil and gas in primary energy use, and although starting later, the overturn of the raw
material base was even more rapid, reaching 50 % penetration 20 years earlier than
as energy source. Coal was nally displaced by oil in the 1960s, when technologies
for producing aromatic chemicals, such as benzene, from petroleum were
100
90
80
70
% (GWh basis)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1924 1929 1934 1939 1944 1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
Other primary energy sources (nuclear, hydro etc.) Primary energy from oil & gas
Primary energy from coal Chemical feedstocks from petroleum and
natural gas
Chemical feedstocks from coal
Fig. 3 Transitions from coal to oil and gas in UK primary energy (red) and chemical feedstocks
(black) 19242005 (5-year rolling averages from UK ofcial energy statistics. Nonfossil feedstocks
are excluded from this diagram due to a lack of reliable data. They are thought to account for a
shrinking proportion (from a high of up to 15 % in the 1930s to less than 3 % today.) (Bennett and
Pearson 2009)
396 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
commercialized. Until that point, aromatics crucial for so many applications had
remained the preserve of the coal-based chemical industry.
Petroleum-based processes began to out compete coal-based chemistry in 1940,
and since then coal feedstocks have thrived only under severe resource pressures.
This was seen in Germany during World War II, where, deprived of access to reliable
oil supplies, chemists focused their energies on products from syngas: in particular
gasoline and synthetic rubber. This technology was subsequently applied by the
South African oil and chemical giant Sasol, who had restricted access to interna-
tional oil markets but allowed access to large domestic coal deposits. By 1974, Sasol
was operating its rst integrated fuel and chemical plant based on coal gasication,
and by 1982 (just before a signicant drop in the global oil price), it was producing
80 different chemicals for about 700 clients, with its sales of chemicals representing
16 % of total sales (Hodge 2000). Most of this was produced from olens, which
were generated by cracking the naphtha fraction of the FischerTropsch liquid fuel
manufactured from syngas. Still today, Sasol produces around 2 Mt of olens from
coal each year for the South African chemical industry.
Now
Of all the sources of chemical feedstock or process energy, coal gives rise to the
largest amount of CO2 emissions, estimated at between 8 and 11 t of CO2 per ton of
high-value chemical produced (Ren and Patel 2009). By comparison, oil-derived
process routes emit around 4 t CO2 per ton of product, and natural gas routes are
slightly higher at 45 t (due to the additional energy requirements of producing
syngas from methane). However, despite these high CO2 emissions and an increas-
ingly stringent greenhouse gas regime, coal-based chemistry continues to be favored
in certain locations. In large part, this stems from local availability: most notably in
China, where indigenous coal is far more abundant than other fossil fuels, about
20 % of the domestic chemical industry is based on coal as a feedstock (Yang and
Jackson 2012). This chemical production is largely based on traditional low-tech
processes such as coking, processing of coke and coal tar, and carbide chemistry.
Future developments in China are likely to see growth in coal-to-liquids, coal-to-
methanol, and C1 chemistry based on syngas, such as is used by Sasol (Xie
et al. 2010). Indeed, signicant investments into research of coal to olens technol-
ogy have been made in recent years, with a target in the 12th ve-year plan to have
20 % of Chinas olen consumption to come from coal, and it is expected that by
2020, China will be 62 % self-sufcient in ethylene production, most of which could
come from coal (Horncastle et al. 2011). As technology improves and learning
effects lower plant costs, coal-derived chemicals are expected to become increas-
ingly competitive with imported petroleum-based routes. Multiple plants are already
in operation, and there are a number of international collaborations underway, which
share expertise and nance for new technological ventures. There have been a
number of collaborations between South Africas Sasol and Chinas Shenhua
group, and recently Shenhua also partnered with Dow Chemicals for the Yulin
Integrated Chemicals project: a US $3.9 billion coal to many chemical plants,
scheduled to launch in 2016 (Zhao 2013).
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 397
Biomass
Concern about climate change and sustainability of fossil resources has driven
renewed recent interest in biomass. While it is not a petrochemical in the same
way as oil, gas, or coal, biomass also consists of hydrocarbon chains, which can be
extracted and processed in very similar ways to fossil feedstocks.
Biomass refers to vegetation or other plant material that can be converted
industrially into useful energy, fuel, or materials. At present it is estimated that
around 5 % of current global chemical sales are produced from biomass, with
biomass additionally supplying about 10 % of global primary energy (IEA 2013b).
Most of the biomass that enters the chemical industrys value chain is either in
traditional bulk processes that have never been fully displaced by petrochemicals or
in smaller quantities of speciality products that harness specic natural properties of
biomass. The former category includes products such as cellophane, produced from
wood cellulose, vegetable oil components in soap, pine resins in paint, and use of
castor oil to produce polyurethane. The latter category, meanwhile, includes speci-
ality products such as cosmetics, food additives, dyes, and medical products, includ-
ing specialist materials that can biodegrade in the body. Companies such as Croda, a
UK company founded in 1925 to manufacture lanolin from sheeps wool, is today a
speciality chemicals rm that obtains 70 % of its raw materials (and 24 % of its
energy) from renewable resources (Croda 2014). The company produces personal
care products, as well as crop care, polymers, and coatings, and achieved a revenue
of 1.08 billion in 2013. In addition, there are other rms, not historically linked to
biomass utilization, who are now looking to biomaterials to diversify their feedstock
dependence and increase resilience. With new technological developments and
increasing environmental awareness among consumers, bio-based chemicals may
be entering a new era of technological and economical competitivity.
History
In many ways, the history of the petrochemical industry is one of replacement of
biomass by synthetic products. Wood, for example, has been replaced in a wide
variety of furniture applications by plastics, while synthetic bers such as nylon have
now superseded cotton for certain fabric products. In addition, there are now
numerous more sophisticated synthetic materials from bio-based chemical feed-
stocks, which have a more complex relationship with fossil-based chemicals.
While fossil chemicals have dominated in recent years, use of biomass for
chemicals has a history at least as long. Indeed, the early stages of the chemical
industrys development saw strong competition between biomass and fossil
feedstock-derived pathways. Between World War I and World War II, Europe and
America showed great interest in industrial use of fermentation ethanol, with support
schemes operating in Germany, France, Italy, the UK, and the United States, among
others (Bernton et al. 1982). There were various reasons for these policies, in
particular relating to concerns about the security of supply of oil for motor cars,
the need to provide farm support during and after the depression, and, particularly in
the European context, a lack of convincing evidence that petrochemistry was truly
398 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
superior or cheaper than biomass routes. In the UK, the added incentive of adding
value to the molasses obtained from sugar plantations in the British Empire led to
signicant tax relief for industrial alcohol production, known as the inconvenience
allowance (Reader 1975). As a result of the inconvenience allowance, and the partly
related lack of UK reneries, British chemical companies rst deployed the ethyl-
ene-based chemistry that was being developed in the United States by dehydrating
ethanol produced by ex-whisky producers such as the Distillers Company (Weir
1995). As such, in 1938 when the rst polyethylene plant was developed, it was
based on bioethanol, not fossil feedstock.
Around this time in the United States, a movement based around the Farm
Chemurgic Council advocated harnessing agricultural production for soybean
plastics, corn-based rubber, and Agrol (gasolineethanol blends) to relieve farm
poverty and dependence on powerful oil companies (Finlay 2004; Hale 1930). In
1941, Henry Ford unveiled a car that ran on Agrol and had a soybean plastic body.
The notion of separating plastics production from the oil industry was revisited
following the oil shocks in the 1970s when ICI began the development of Biopol, a
polymer made from fermented glucose (Bennett 2008). As oil prices dropped, the
prospect of commercially competitive Biopol production receded, but the develop-
ment work undertaken by ICI provided the foundations for a new generation of
bio-based chemicals.
While petrochemical feedstocks have dominated the latter part of the twentieth
century, biomass has not been forgotten, and ongoing research into this feedstock has
been driven by interest, circumstance, and economics. For example, one of the rst
demonstrations of aviation biofuels came in 1979 when a group of amateur ying
enthusiasts developed alcohol fuels in an attempt to mitigate the impacts of the
gasoline crisis (Bernton et al. 1982).
Now
Recently, climate change is one of the concerns that have generated renewed interest
in using biomass as a chemical feedstock. Biomass is a renewable resource that has
the advantage of sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere as it grows. If the biomass is
then used as a chemical feedstock, then atmospheric CO2 is incorporated into
products. Depending on the end-of-life disposal of the product, the carbon is either
locked up indenitely and kept out of the atmosphere or returned to the atmosphere
upon degradation or incineration, but still creating lower net emissions than the
equivalent fossil-based product. A lower carbon footprint has been calculated for a
number of synthetic materials from bio-based feedstocks, such as for polylactic acid
(PLA) and Mater-Bi plastics, and bers made from corn starch by NatureWorks in
Nebraska, United States, and by Novamont in Terni, Italy (Madival et al. 2009;
Murphy et al. 2008; Uihlein et al. 2008).
Most bio-based plastics are still more expensive than their petrochemical coun-
terparts, and so commercial production is generally limited to those with specialist
properties (such as biodegradability) where niche markets can be accessed.
However, the landscape is changing. Increasingly, green product premiums are
growing the market for bio-based goods, as consumers become more aware of the
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 399
Future Trends
Because of the reliance of the organic chemical industry on fossil fuels, especially
oil, for both feedstock and energy, the sustainability of oil supply is of utmost
importance. If the global oil market becomes disrupted or tight, competition for
available oil supplies raises the production costs of petrochemicals more than for
other commodities. This could benet other feedstocks if they can be deployed
400 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
rapidly enough to take advantage of the imbalance between demand and supply of
oil. Alternatively, total demand for organic chemicals could be reduced. While there
are numerous political and economic factors that can lead to volatility in oil prices,
long-term oil prices could be inuenced by geological supply constraints. This
notion that such constraints could lead to a peak in oil supply is commonly referred
to as peak oil.
The two men most associated with the ideas behind peak oil concerns are William
Stanley Jevons and M. King Hubbert. Both looked at a nite fossil fuel resource and
noted that the production rate of that resource, which had initially risen exponen-
tially, would reach a maximum point long before the resource became exhausted.
Jevons correctly predicted that UK coal supply would be unable to keep up with
demand in the early twentieth century. Hubbert correctly predicted a peak in US oil
production in the mid-twentieth century. For both resources, the growth rate of
supply was checked at approximately half of the total reserve. Although British
coal and American oil could subsequently be replaced by alternative fossil energy
sources, mainly through imports, what was recognized by these theorists was that if
there is no alternative supply source that can be used as a substitute at similar cost,
then the inevitable decline in production will cause intense competition between
consumers if their levels of demand are inexible due to existing infrastructure and
expectations. Peak oil proponents predict that after the global peak in the rate of
production, price rises would accompany sharp declines in production rates unless
demand were rapidly reduced, thus the key date would be the extraction of half the
conventional oil resource and not the date of total exhaustion.1 While concern was
high in the early 2000s that rapid price rises could mean an end to decades of
economic growth based on cheap access to oil, the addition of substantial oil
production from unconventional sources has relieved many of these concerns in
the last few years.
Conventional oil refers to crude oil, condensate, and natural gas liquids, which are
usually relatively easily extracted from subsurface oil elds and require relatively
little upgrading to liquid fuels. By contrast, unconventional oil refers to tight oil
sands, shale oil, and extra-heavy oil, which are not found in a usable form and
require more treatment to yield liquid fuels. To unconventional oil can be added
synfuels (coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids, and biofuels) (IEA 2013c). Unconventional
liquids are generally more expensive to produce than conventional oil, but their
production is nevertheless increasing, partly due to higher than historical oil prices.
The date and severity of peak oil remains unresolved. It not only depends on the
total remaining conventional oil resource but also the costs of extraction, the
elasticity of oil demand, the availability of substitutes, and the rate at which demand
is suppressed by market saturation and efciency policies in various countries.
Figures 4 and 5 show the global trends in oil reserves and production. It can be
seen that oil reserves are increasing, reecting a mixture of technological progress
1
Studies suggest that most of the worlds major elds have peaked at between 30 % and 40 % of
their total resource (Hkk et al. 2009).
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 401
Fig. 4 Global trends in proved conventional oil reserves (EIA 2014a) (Proved reserves of crude oil
are the estimated quantities of all liquids dened as crude oil, which geological and engineering data
demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from reservoirs under
existing economic and operating conditions. They are thus subject to changes in technology and
oil price) Gb = gigabarrel
Fig. 5 Global trends in oil production (EIA 2014b; Emetad and Luciani 1991)
that reduces extraction costs of resources that are more difcult to access and oil
prices above the long-term average that make higher-cost oil economic. Production
growth has slowed, reecting some consumer response to higher oil prices but also
changes in consumption patterns in major economies such as the United States,
Europe, and China. Fuel efciency standards and fuel switching to less polluting
fuels are having an impact. Yet, despite these trends, reserve additions are not
402 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
keeping pace with production. Recent years have seen relatively strong rates of
exploration drilling; however, the discovered volumes have dropped since 2013, and
the total number of discoveries per annum has fallen by 50 % between 2008 and
2014 (IHS 2014).
In a review of the evidence for a peak in conventional oil by 2030 by Sorrell
et al. (2009), it is noted that although there are around 70,000 oil elds in the world,
100 elds account for half of production and up to 500 elds account for two-thirds of
cumulative discoveries. Most of these giant elds are well past their peak of produc-
tion or will begin to decline in the next decade. Their analysis indicates that just to
maintain production at current levels, three million barrels per day of new capacity
must be added each year equivalent to a new Saudi Arabia coming on stream every
3 years. This means that in order to prevent production from falling, more than
two-thirds of current crude oil production capacity may need to be replaced by
2030. Yet there appears little chance that new giant elds will be discovered and
discoveries of new smaller elds are not currently at the levels needed.
While the likelihood of high future oil prices may have positive outcomes in
terms of demand reduction and CO2 emissions reduction, this needs to be balanced
against the implications for economic activities such as petrochemical production,
which is currently congured to take advantage of available and conventional oil at
prices that have historically made production protable. In a world that takes strong
action to mitigate climate change, unconventional oil sources might comfortably
substitute for declining conventional oil production. If demand does not decline due
to climate action, however, the availability of synfuels and biofuels, including their
public acceptance, will be more important.
For details on bio-based fuels, see the respective chapter in this handbook.
Unconventional Oil
Global oil production is expected to increase from 89 million barrels per day in 2013
to more than 104 million barrels per day in 2040 (IEA 2014d). The proportion of
conventional oil will fall, with the proportion of natural gas liquids and unconven-
tional oil increasing. It is also notable that OPECs share of production is expected to
increase somewhat, as well as increasing production from Brazil, Canada, Kazakh-
stan, and the United States. The increasing share of unconventional substitute fuels
will also determine what resources are available for use in the chemical industry.
This is already being seen in the United States, where the availability of shale gas is
leading to its increased use as chemical feedstock.
Unconventional fuels primarily consist of oil sands, shale oil, and other heavy
oils, shale gas, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, and biofuels. Each of these unconven-
tional resources is itself a limited resource of differing proportions, and none is
anticipated to offer a sole solution. Unlike for crude oil, production of liquid fuels
from these resources do not generally produce by-products such as LPG or naphtha
that are highly suitable as chemical feedstocks. Olens, aromatics, or syngas can
all be produced from unconventional liquids, but they would compete for the raw
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 403
material with fuel users, who may be willing to bid high prices if the available
resource is constrained. Integrating unconventional feedstocks into the petrochem-
ical industry could also require costly changes to the upstream infrastructure, which
could be very costly.
Moreover, in terms of emissions, unconventional feedstocks often require more
energy-intensive processing methods to yield fuels and feedstocks, such as gasi-
cation, hydroconversion, or steam injection. This additional energy consumption
adds cost and will leave the chemical industry even more exposed to volatile energy
prices than it already is. Furthermore, an increase in process energy will increase the
carbon footprint of the industry, a factor which is becoming increasingly pertinent.
Extraction of unconventional oil is predicated on the condition of economic as well
as technical viability it must be possible to make money from the process.
However, the global economy is increasingly taking note of the concept of a carbon
budget: a nite, maximum total amount of CO2 that can be released into the
atmosphere if the planet is to stay within globally agreed temperature limits. To
stay below a 2 C increase, it is currently estimated that between 60 % and 80 % of
proven fossil fuel reserves will need to remain in the ground. This has led organi-
zations such as the Carbon Tracker Initiative to monitor and highlight the potential
risk of investing in fossil fuel assets, some of which could become unexploitable if
demand is curtailed by carbon pricing or regulation (CTI 2013). In such a situation,
unconventional oil could be the most severely affected if its production cost (includ-
ing any carbon price) were more expensive than the marginal oil price. Use of
unconventional oil for chemical feedstock may therefore be more vulnerable to
climate mitigation policy than other feedstock options and suffer from any reduced
investment in unconventional oil production for fuel purposes.
The global industrial sector accounts for 21 % of direct greenhouse gas emissions.
When indirect emissions (including those from electricity consumption) are
included, industrys share rises to 32 % of global total GHG emissions, making it
the primary source of GHG, above even the combined emissions from agriculture,
forestry, and land use (IPCC 2013). The vast majority of this comes from energy use,
and the chemical and petrochemical industry uses more than 30 % of the total
industrial energy use worldwide, giving rise to very high volumes of GHG emis-
sions. Overall, CO2 emissions are found to account for the majority of these,
accounting for around 99 % of greenhouse gas emissions from the petrochemical
industry (Benchaita 2013), and while emissions of chlorouorocarbons, methane,
and nitrous oxides should be reduced wherever possible, the biggest implications are
for CO2, which is the focus of this section.
Data on the energy efciency and GHG emissions from the global petrochemical
sector are not readily available, for a number of reasons. Firstly, the diversity and
complexity of the sector mean that there are a vast number of processes, products,
and feedstocks that must be accounted for. This also leads to difculties in allocating
emissions between the heavily integrated processes on site, and without a global
obligation to record and report CO2 emissions, there are serious limitations to and
discrepancies within the data that is available. Lastly, intellectual property and
antitrust issues can prevent full disclosure of CO2 gures. The world total GHG
emissions attributed to chemical and petrochemical processes amounts to 1,240
MtCO2 equivalent annually. GHG emissions of the 18 largest volume chemicals
are 960 MtCO2 equivalent per year, or more than 75 % of the total (IEA 2013a). This
does not account for all emissions from power generation or energy recovery from
petrochemical products during disposal, but does include both inorganic and organic
chemicals production.
However, the situation is particularly complex for the petrochemical industry as
compared to other industrial sectors. Much of the energy is used as feedstock, which
then is locked up in products until the end of their lifetime and in many cases for a
long time after their disposal. This makes the industry an effective store of fossil
carbon in chemical products carbon that would otherwise have been burnt for fuel
and released to the atmosphere. It is estimated that carbon storage in plastics
worldwide is around 477 Mt of CO2 equivalent per year, and growing as plastic
consumption rises (IEA 2007). With only 30 Mt of plastics incinerated annually at
the end of their lifetime, the rest of the carbon continues to be locked into the plastic
product. Furthermore, when considering the full lifecycle of the product, chemical
industry representatives note that not only should end-of-life disposal be taken into
account but also the contributions that use of the product made during its active
product life. Carbon-containing products can contribute signicant efciency gains
during their life: for example, the replacement of metal panels with carbon ber
reduces the weight (and therefore fuel consumption) of vehicles, and the use of
polymers for insulation saves more in carbon dioxide via reduction in energy
consumption than was generated during their production (Cec 2006). Indeed, it
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 405
has been estimated that in the food packaging industry, the replacement of materials
such as metals, glass, or cardboard with petrochemically derived plastics has resulted
in GHG reductions, as the plastics require fewer raw materials and less energy, as
well as transport emission savings resulting from lighter weight plastics (IEA
2013a). However, it is difcult to create transferable metrics for the different stages
of the product life, and it is likely that a robust carbon price, applied to all CO2
emissions throughout the economy, would be the only way to effectively do this.
The vast majority of CO2 emissions from the petrochemical industry stem from
its energy consumption, which is used to power energy-intensive production pro-
cesses. A typical petrochemical plant includes three types of energy consumption:
about 60 % is due to fuel consumption, 35 % due to steam energy consumption, and
5 % fuel to power consumption (Benchaita 2013). Steam cracking to produce olens
is highly energy intensive, and it is used extensively, making it the major energy-
consuming process worldwide. The energy used in steam cracking depends on both
the technology used, and the choice of feedstock, with lighter feedstocks such as
ethane cracked at lower temperatures, and the nal ethylene yield decreasing (and so
per-product emissions increasing) as the molecular weight of feedstock increases.
One ton of ethylene can be produced from 1.25 t of ethane, 2.2 t of propane, or as
much as 3.2 t of naphtha (Table 3).
In addition to the previously mentioned challenges for securing energy data, it
must also be noted that the petrochemical industry is highly diverse, and it would be
extremely challenging to develop separate indicators for each product. In response to
this challenge, the IEA proposed an aggregate product indicator, composed of
49 products, which together account for more than 95 % of the total energy
consumed by the industry (Tam and Gielen 2006). The ve most energy-intensive
processes are production of acetic acid (34 GJ/t), production of benzene via steam
cracking (27 GJ/t), production of xylene by steam cracking (26 GJ/t), production of
toluene by steam cracking (24 GJ/t), and production of toluene diisocyanate
(22 GJ/t). Accounting for production volumes, it becomes clear that the three largest
energy uses are for the processes that yield ethylene (1.3 million GJ per annum),
propylene (0.7 million GJ per annum), and benzene (0.6 million GJ per annum).
Considering the aggregate product indicator for the 49 products, it is found that
efciency savings just from implementing the best available practices and technol-
ogies in the core chemical processes could save around 14 % of this energy each year
(excluding electricity), or more than 21 % when including electricity (IEA 2014a).
However, the magnitude of the emissions from the top energy consumers clearly
shows that targeting savings from these processes alone would yield signicant
climate change mitigation benets.
406 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
Emissions also arise from the transport of chemical products, for further
processing and for nal sale. While many processing units are integrated with or
sited near each other and near the reneries themselves, this is not always the case,
and large volumes of chemicals (often gaseous or unstable, thereby requiring
liquefaction or compression) must be transported to other locations. As with all
industries, greater transportation leads to higher costs and GHG emissions from
transport. Therefore, the economies of scale associated with large-scale petrochem-
ical sites must be balanced with the increased demand for transport to sites of product
consumption.
Calculations of the impact on the climate from organic chemicals should be
undertaken with an understanding of the life cycle impact of a particular product
or application. Such an approach could place appropriate emphasis on downstream
users of chemical products to demand chemical commodities and synthetic materials
that have a lower carbon footprint.
There is no space in this chapter to look in depth at particular products. Instead,
the later sections on climate change mitigation options consider the potential for
improvement of some of the most energy-intensive petrochemical processes.
Geographical Variations
The main petrochemical-producing regions are Europe, the Middle East, and the
United States, although there has been signicant growth in China during the last
decade. Each of these regions relies to a large extent on different raw materials,
meaning that their GHG emissions vary. Ethylene is one of the most important
olens, with production growing at an annual rate of 4.5 % each year (Benchaita
2013). Figure 4 shows the percentages of ethylene production capacity in different
regions that are based on the six main feedstocks. This shows that while ethane
dominates in the Middle East, naphtha and heavier fractions dominate in Europe.
The United States is mainly reliant on LPG and some naphtha, while Asia Pacic is
dominated by naphtha: indeed in 2013, 80 % of ethylene production facilities in
China were naphtha based (Kalkman and Keller 2012). While the capacities vary
between regions, the core technology designs are similar and are based on the steam
cracking process developed in the United States in the early 1940s. The steam
cracking process is energy intensive and globally accounts for more than 39 % of
the chemical and petrochemical industrys nal energy use. The energy used by each
facility however depends on a number of factors, with feedstock being a key element
since lighter feedstocks (such as ethane) are cracked at lower temperatures (IEA
2007) (Fig. 6).
The distribution of CO2 emissions in Table 4 reects these regional differences
and also the emission intensities of the processes. Thus, the top countries in the table
are those with high energy costs and therefore incentives to operate highly efcient,
integrated plants and those that use lighter cleaner feedstocks.
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 407
Fig. 6 Ethylene plants by feedstock and region (Oil and Gas Journal 2014)
Table 4 Total CO2 emissions from national chemical industries, in reverse order of their estimated
emissions intensity (IEA 2007)
Country Million tons of CO2 per year in 2004 (Mt CO2/year)
Netherlands 22.7
Saudi Arabia 53.1
Japan 120.1
United Kingdom 19.4
France 24.3
India 51.0
Germany 46.8
Italy 10.1
United States 275.0
Brazil 13.6
China 51.0
Chinese Taipei 13.4
integration with local reneries. However, prices of both naphtha feedstock and
process energy increased sharply for these producers and caused a delayed downturn
in demand. This was compounded by the greater damage done to demand for
petrochemicals by the credit crunch and ensuing global recession.
Long-term increases in oil prices would be likely to cause a marked shift in basic
petrochemical production to locations where light crude oil is plentiful, especially
Saudi Arabia and the Middle East. Although the use of LPG as a basic feedstock is
accompanied by lower CO2 emissions, the increasing exploitation of LPG as a
chemical feedstock in afuent oil-producing nations means that the carbon intensity
of olen production has decreased; this is more than offset by the rise in production
and the use of heavier feedstocks elsewhere in the industry.
Nevertheless the nature of the industry is such that minimizing energy costs (for
feedstock, heat, steam, and power) is a major factor in plant design worldwide. The
development of shale gas in the United States has led to renewed investment in the
nations chemical sector. Through exploitation of relatively cheap shale gas, US
organic chemical companies have been able to compete internationally for capital
and markets. European companies, meanwhile, may nd it necessary to return to a
level of vertical integration that allows them to absorb price volatility in the value
chain and focus on high-value-added products. Large plants and multinational
companies have always been the status quo in the petrochemical industry, and this
is not foreseen to change.
Another outcome of the oil price spike in 20072008 was the growth in interest in
coal and biomass feedstocks. Coal has most interest in China, the United States,
Australia, and South Africa for reasons of indigenous supplies and technological
expertise. However, it must be noted that increased use of coal as a feedstock for
ammonia and methanol production would lead to higher CO2 emissions.
Overall, an eastward shift in chemical production appears to be an inescapable
trend for the near future. Aside from raw materials costs, this relates to lower capital
and operating costs in China, India, and Brazil, less costly regulatory environments,
and the higher rates of demand growth in these regions. In the OECD, the main
markets for bulk chemical products are largely saturated. Investment in new capacity
in Europe is likely to continue to focus on speciality products and infrastructure
considered to be of strategic importance.
Chemical plants in regions subject to GHG emission regulations have a very
strong incentive to implement mitigation technologies. Although the timetable is
unclear, there is a broad expectation that GHG emissions will be costly for chemical
producers in most regions of the world in the coming decades. Investments today
will therefore consider measures such as extensive heat integration and CHP as
competitive advantages, as well as the use of biomass to provide a proportion of the
heat and power requirements of a chemical site, perhaps through co-ring.
Another macroeconomic trend with possible impacts on the petrochemical
industrys emission intensity is that of changes to renery output. Modern reneries
are capable of adjusting their output to meet demand by cracking and upgrading the
different distillation fractions to meet fuel requirements. For example, heavier
fractions can be cracked and reformed to produce more high-octane gasoline. As a
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 409
consequence, because of the high levels of integration between the fuels and
chemical industries, changes in the much larger by volume fuel industry could
impact on the fractions of crude oil that is available for chemical feedstocks. In the
near-to-medium term, most of these changes to the current balance of products
would most probably lead to a larger amount of processing in order to continue to
supply the existing infrastructure. More processing generally indicates more CO2.
Plausible changes in renery congurations could result from, among other things, a
global trend toward diesel-powered cars; the emergence of a highly competitive
market for LPG fuel; a substantial increase in the proportion of electric, hybrid, and
biofuel-powered cars worldwide; and a trend toward heavier crude oils. This last
change appears unavoidable: oil sands, coal-to-liquids, and other unconventional
and difcult-to-access sources of liquid fuels will be needed to replace the depleted
supplies of conventional light crude oil. Moreover, if demand continues to increase,
these unconventional fuels will become increasingly cost competitive (assuming no
carbon price). It should be borne in mind, however, that complex industries that have
evolved together over many decades will only reorient their supply chains to
radically new technologies on the scale of decades, as the inertia in the infrastructure
is very great.
It is worth considering these future trends as they could all impact negatively on
the ease with which the organic chemical industry can mitigate its impact on the
climate. In the next section on mitigation options, the main focus will be on long-
term options that offer serious emission cuts. Incremental efciency improvements
will also have a role to play, but they may be insufcient to offset trends that lead to
higher emission intensities.
The previous parts of this chapter have described the extent to which the petrochem-
ical industry is closely integrated with fossil resources. This section looks speci-
cally at the climate mitigation options that have the potential to increase the
sustainability of the chemical industry.
It must be acknowledged that the most obvious route would be to reduce
consumption of petrochemical products or at least to slow the rate of growth. This
would benet both resource sustainability and climate mitigation impacts. However,
the continued rate of growth in demand for chemicals, bers, and plastics in
particular appears unlikely to slow in the near future: indeed it has been suggested
that it would only plateau once average wealth is in excess of USD 15,000 per capita,
which is a long way from the current global economic reality (Andre et al. 2014). In
addition, if reduced production were enforced, it may withhold many of the lifecycle
benets associated with use of some petrochemical-derived products. The transition
to a climate conscious regime will require the technical qualities of specialist
plastics, lightweight carbon ber structures, and a multitude of other petrochemical
products. Chemical products can thus contribute to GHG savings in downstream
markets, something that demands a life cycle approach to understanding costs and
410 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
benets. However, this section assumes that the products of the petrochemical
industry will continue to be produced globally on a similar scale today to meet the
material demands of a modern society with a growing population, and therefore, its
emissions from chemicals manufacture will require attention.
The second most impactful route would be to decarbonize the electricity supply
and electrify existing chemical processes. However, the challenges of moving
domestic electricity networks to renewable energy have proven considerable, even
without expanding electricity demand to include vehicular transport and industrial
manufacturing. Nevertheless, even if it is unlikely that the fossil fuel-dependent
petrochemical industry will shift to low-carbon electricity for heat and power in the
near future, there will be many instances where installing local renewable energy
sources to power certain processes may be economic. The extent of this switch will
depend on local conditions and available government support.
However, there are a number of impactful technical measures that the chemical
industry can take to reduce its emissions. This section considers a number of routes
for the chemical industry to adjust moving forward: efciency gains, focusing on
combined heat and power (CHP), plastics recycling, carbon capture and storage
(CCS), and feedstock switching, which focuses on the concept of the biorenery.
Each of these options and technologies has their own merits and opportunities, and
they can complement one another. Indeed, a carbon-conscious future is likely to see
the implementation of several of these technologies together.
Efficiency Gains
Efciency gains in energy and resource consumption can both reduce climate impact
and costs for the petrochemical industry, as it both mitigates the economic impacts of
climate regulation and reduces vulnerability to volatile fossil resource prices. These
two drivers have been effective in provoking signicant improvements in energy and
resource efciency within the petrochemical industry, and there is a long track record
of such improvement.
High efciency is a natural pursuit of any business that is highly exposed to the
cost of energy, and consequently many of the key industrial processes in the
chemical industry have improved their performance year on year. The oil price
shocks of the 1970s offered a notable impetus to this efciency focus: while early
naphtha crackers consumed approximately 38 GJ per ton of ethylene produced, the
1970s saw extensive process redesign, which lowered the energy requirements by
4050 % (Gielen et al. 2006). Today, furnace and product separation at new plants
operate at around 1825 GJ per ton as a norm. Continued improvements have been
seen and are most apparent in Europe, where the energy efciency of steam crackers
improved by 10 % between 1999 and 2003 alone, with improvement in North
America of just 3 % during the same time period. This stems in large part from the
differential pressures from using imported naphtha in Europe, where other regions
utilize local LPG resources which require less furnace and separation energy in
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 411
cracking. In the future, the battle for efciency is likely to be due to both the costs of
GHG emissions and energy.
There remain improvements that could be made to crackers in developed and
developing countries alike. Higher-temperature furnaces, gas turbine integration,
advanced distillation columns, and combined refrigeration plants are possibilities
that have been identied as potentially leading to savings of up to 3 GJ per ton of
ethylene. Other options, such as uidized catalytic crackers (FCC) and new deep
catalytic cracking processes, have milder temperature and separation requirements,
although they are limited either by feedstock availability FFC generally uses
renery gases or by the impact on other integrated processes. For instance, deep
catalytic cracking yields are generally achieved at the expense of gasoline yields.
With rapid growth in production capacity occurring in areas heavily dependent on
naphtha feedstocks, reduction of the energy intensity of the steam cracking process
in particular (steam cracking currently accounts for 30 % of all chemical industry
energy consumption (Ren and Patel 2009) will be necessary to reduce GHG emis-
sions, potentially contributing a 143 Mt CO2 equivalent saving, and research is
ongoing into catalytic cracking approaches.
Efciency improvements can offer the major petrochemical rms an important
competitive edge, as well as leading to GHG savings, and they are expected to be
realized wherever they are protable. Where there is a shift to lower-cost regions of
production, the savings may be realized faster than the expected 30-year infrastruc-
ture replacement cycle. After all, many of the plants built in the Middle East and Asia
are made to cutting-edge designs, for example, the methyl methacrylate plant
commissioned in 2008 by British rm Lucite in Singapore.2
Overall, improvements to the environmental performance of existing processes
are encapsulated by the 12 principles of Green Chemistry (Table 5). Green chemistry
is an approach to chemical production that stresses the environmental impacts of all
process steps and encourages a holistic view of all processes, inputs, and outputs. It
encourages industrial producers to use processes that meet as many of the 12 aims as
possible, with increase energy efciency as principle 9. The Presidential Green
Chemistry Challenge Awards have been awarded annually since 1996 by the Amer-
ican Chemical Society, supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA). In 2009, the Greener Synthetic Pathways Award was won by Eastman
Chemical Company for a novel route to the production of esters. The old process
used strong acid catalysts at high temperatures; using enzymes eliminates the need
for harsh conditions and thus signicantly reduces energy use. It reduces the overall
requirements for feedstock and solvents. It is also a cheaper process, which was only
made possible by taking a holistic approach to the industrial process.
The European Chemical Industry Council (Cec) considers that energy efciency
improvements will continue to contribute the greatest GHG reductions from the
chemical industry (Cec 2013). As an industry body, they also note that unlike other
options, such an approach would reduce the costs of the industry in the near term,
2
Lucite was subsequently subject to acquisition by Mitsubishi of Japan.
412 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
making it particularly appealing for the European context where recent years have
seen stiff competition from production in regions where energy costs are much
lower. This is also highly promising in terms of climate mitigation: implementation
of best practice and best available technologies, in particular increased develop-
ment and use of catalysts could reduce energy intensity for key products by up to
40 % by 2050, saving around 1,000 MtCO2 equivalent per year in 2050, as compared
to a business-as-usual scenario (IEA 2013a). This is particularly important in
European and North American plants, where the majority of apparatus was designed
and built more than two decades ago and efciency is often considerably lower than
plants built more recently (Benchaita 2013). However, currently available technol-
ogies can only go so far, and to achieve deeper energy and emission cuts, larger
technological changes will also be needed.
At present, there still remain efciency gains that have not yet been realized (Fig. 7).
As well as implementation of best practice technology and process intensication,
CHP is particularly important to consider across all regions due to the massive
demand for process heat in the chemical industry. Because heat is a low-grade energy
product, its dedicated production can be considered to be a low-value use of resources
anywhere where it could be recovered from other processes that generate excess heat,
e.g., the production of electricity or even chemicals themselves.
Thus, by making use of the waste heat produced as steam in electricity
production, CHP increases the overall efciency of a power plant. A petrochemical
facility has a high demand for both power and high-temperature steam, for processes
such as steam cracking.
Industry is already one of the largest users of CHP. In 2011, industrial CHP
facilities generated 26 % total global electricity generation from CHP (IEA 2014c).
In the United States, 23 of the total 82 GW of installed CHP capacity was in the
chemical sector in 2013, with estimates suggesting a technical potential for a further
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 413
Fig. 7 Energy efciency potential in the chemical and petrochemical industry (IEA 2013a)
Taking plastics as an example, global production of plastics was around 288 mil-
lion metric tons in 2012, of which only around 10 % was recycled. There are large
geographical variations in recycling rates, however, and in the United States, Japan,
and Europe, the proportion is much higher than this. In addition, post-consumer
plastic waste is also increasingly being incinerated for energy recovery. Most plastics
have relatively high energy contents, comparable to other hydrocarbon energy
sources. Polypropylene, for example, contains 46 MJ per kg, which is equivalent
to that of kerosene. On average household-mixed plastic waste contains around
32 MJ per kg, which is favorable compared to coal (approximately 25 MJ per kg).
Hence, energy recovery from plastics can partially substitute fossil fuels in heat or
power production, offering a sizable, secure, and competitive energy source. If even
half of the global waste plastic resource was used for energy recovery, this would be
a signicant resource. With landll taxes being employed in many countries for
reasons of space constraints and waste management, this resource is increasingly
attractive.
The climate story around energy recovery is slightly different. As mentioned
earlier, the use of fossil fuels as plastics feedstocks effectively locks up the carbon,
which breaks down only very slowly in landlls. (It should be noted that where it
does break down, it may yield methane, a much more potent GHG, although this can
be partially dealt with by landll gas collection for energy use.) Use of plastics as an
energy source creates CO2 emissions that can be considered as deriving from fossil
carbon. If this displaces coal combustion, then the climate benet would be small but
useful. If it replaces natural gas combustion, then the climate impact would be
unfavorable. Therefore, while energy recovery is attractive in terms of conservation
of fossil fuels, it is unlikely to be attractive for reduction of GHG emissions.
Recycling, on the other hand, offers both energy security and climate benets.
Reducing the amount of fossil (or bio-based) feedstock necessary for chemical
production can have a positive effect on the available energy supplies. Perhaps, more
importantly, recycling can reduce the energy demand, and therefore the GHG
emissions, of plastic manufacture by about 0.6 t of CO2 equivalent per ton of plastic
recycled compared to landlling (Wrap 2010). Maximizing recycling is therefore a
vital tool in the pursuit of sustainability in the chemical industry from economic,
social, and environmental perspectives.
To conclude this short overview of recycling, it is necessary to briey distinguish
between thermoplastic recycling and so-called feedstock recycling. Thermoplastics
are polymers that become liquid when heated and can be reset as plastics when
cooled and put to a new use, and most recycling today is thermoplastic recycling.
Meanwhile feedstock recycling generally refers to the use of plastic waste as a raw
material for thermochemical conversion to new feedstocks. This can either be
achieved by pyrolysis to liquid fuel or, as is more usually promoted, by gasication
to syngas and then use in similar chemical processes to those fed by natural gas or
coal; this could be, for instance, production of ammonia, liquid fuels, methanol,
FischerTropsch olens, or dimethyl ether. Because feedstock recycling to
chemicals requires energy-intensive conversion of the plastic waste to syngas, it
offers a solution primarily to the problem of resource sustainability, but is less
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 415
favorable as a climate mitigation tool. It may only yield GHG emission reductions
when compared to coal gasication processes or if it provides exceptional savings in
downstream uses of the resulting products.
However, one potential advantage of feedstock recycling is the hydrogen-rich
syngas produced in comparison to that from coal. This could be advantageous in the
future in which syngas is widely used for production of hydrogen, fuel, or chemicals,
suggesting a possible role for co-gasication of plastic, coal, and biomass.
CCS offers the unique ability to separate fossil fuel use from climate harm. By
capturing CO2 at source, transporting it, and sequestering securely underground, it
could be a powerful tool in the ght against climate change. Without CCS, few
climate scenarios are able to achieve the carbon reduction targets compliant with
2 C warming, and the latest IPCC projections assume CCS to contribute a sixth of
the CO2 emission reductions required by 2050 (IPCC 2013). While other chapters of
this book consider the technical details and policy context of CCS in more detail, this
section explores the applicability and potential importance of CCS for the chemical
industry.
CCS is really a collection of technologies rather than a single procedure. At each
stage of the process, there are several technological options: CO2 separation can take
place pre-combustion, post-combustion, or via oxy-fuel combustion; transport can
occur through pipelines or potentially through shipping; and there are a range of
geological storage options, including depleted fossil fuel reservoirs, saline aquifers,
and even coal seams. The different choices of technology will depend on the
particular context. Post-combustion capture can be retrotted to existing industrial
facilities or power stations, whereas integrating pre-combustion capture can increase
the efciency of the overall process. Similarly, the captured CO2 can be stored
locally if a suitable aquifer or depleted hydrocarbon reservoir is nearby, or it can
be piped (or potentially shipped) offshore for underground injection.
Each of the individual technological components is well demonstrated. CO2
capture from ue gases was rst commercialized in the 1970s for sale of CO2 to
the chemical and food industries, and for decades CO2 has been transported over
many hundreds of kilometers by the American oil industry for the purposes of
enhanced oil or gas recovery (EOR/EGR). On the storage side, plants such as
Sleipner in the North Sea have seen over a million tons of CO2 per year stored
since 1996.
However, the full chain of CCS, with capture from industry or the power sector,
and geological storage with monitoring to verify storage permanence has never been
integrated at a commercial scale. This is primarily due to the absence of markets that
can absorb the capital costs. CCS plants generally have costs in the range of hundreds
of millions, or even a billion, of dollars. In addition, the cost of investment in pipeline
infrastructure, upfront storage identication, and long-term monitoring and verica-
tion to satisfy untested regulatory procedures all add upfront nancial risks.
416 S.J. Bennett and H.A. Page
A strong business case is needed for CCS implementation, which in the longer
term may be based on strong climate policy, but in the early stages has been
dependent on the use of CCS for EOR/EGR.3 At present, the majority of operational
large-scale CO2 capture plants use the captured CO2 for enhanced oil or gas recovery
(EOR/EGR), which has been a driver of technology development for CCS. Where
these sites are able to demonstrably store CO2 permanently and not raise overall oil
and gas demand, they could also demonstrate CO2 emission reductions.
CCS is often discussed in terms of its ability to decarbonize the power sector.
However, dependent on the pace of climate policy development, the roll out of CCS
in the power sector has been slow: with the rst large-scale-integrated CCS project in
the power sector only coming online in October 2014 (Boundary Dam, Canada).
However, CCS is also particularly relevant for non-power applications such as gas
processing, rening, cement and steel industries, and, in particular, chemical
production.
The production of hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia offer signicant promise
for reduction of CO2 via CCS. Many of these industrial applications generate CO2
streams with higher purity than are seen from the power sector, and so could offer
lower-cost abatement options. Capture from natural gas processing is already used in
large-scale commercial projects, such as Sleipner in Norway and the upcoming
Gorgon plant in Western Australia. Production of chemicals such as ammonia,
hydrogen, methanol, and coal-to-chemicals has also been used to source CO2. The
Air Products Port Arthur project in the United States has captured CO2 from
hydrogen production since 2013, as will the Quest project in Canada, due to
commence operation in 2015. These projects demonstrate the cost competitiveness
of CO2 capture from chemical processes and are together gradually building a base
of demonstration projects from which future projects will learn.
Where coal is used a chemical feedstock, CCS offers relatively low-cost mitiga-
tion options to avoid emissions from highly carbon-intensive processes. Coal gasi-
cation to syngas is usually followed by separation of hydrogen and carbon
monoxide (syngas) from carbon dioxide as a normal part of the process. This is a
similar principle to integrated gasication-combined cycle (IGCC) power plants,
which can be integrated with hydrogen production. Syngas is already widely used in
the chemical industry. Integration of CCS with industrial syngas hubs could enable
these alternative feedstocks to be utilized in a manner that is compatible with a
low-carbon economy. With a strong carbon price or climate regulation, syngas,
electricity, hydrogen, and CO2 could all have value in a single, large industrial site
similar to those that have been proposed in China (Fig. 7) (Fig. 8).
3
It may seem incongruous that CCS, a climate change mitigation technology, be used to enhance the
production of oil, yet while CCS passes through its technology development stages, this link with
oil revenue can reduce the cost of project nancing, a cost that otherwise often falls on the public
purse. This use of CCS for EOR/EGR, combined with increasing climate change awareness have
driven CO2 capture technology toward reducing costs, potentially allowing application in larger
(and lower margin) markets.
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 417
Fossil fuels
&
Biomass
CO2
Geological CO2
storage
CO / CO2 CO2
Gasification Uncaptured GHGs
Petrochemical. CO / CO2
bio-based, H2 H2
oxygenated,
nitrogenous
reagents etc. C1 chemical
factory, methanol Power & Heat Power
plant, FT-olefin generation
synthesis etc.
4
CO2 is today used in the agriculture industry to enhance crop growth and in the food industry to
carbonate drinks and decaffeinate coffee (among other uses), but these also suffer from short-term
net storage and limited markets.
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 419
Biorefineries
Future Directions
This chapter has sought to introduce the organic chemical industry as a highly
energy-dependent sector of the economy. Presently, the industry is dominated by
petrochemicals and a manufacturing system that is almost entirely reliant on fossil
fuels, especially oil, for both raw materials and large amounts of process energy. This
situation can be understood as the consequence of almost 80 years of coevolution
of organic chemical production with liquid fuel production, based around the oil
renery and the platform chemicals that are produced in the rening process. This
process of close integration was especially pronounced during the periods of very
rapid expansion during the 1950s and 1960s in Europe and North America. It has
bequeathed a network of petrochemical clusters that feed the worlds manufacture of
plastics, synthetic bers, solvents, lubricants, medical products, and cosmetics. The
efciency of large-scale, integrated production continues to drive growth and inno-
vation among the small number of multinational rms. As a result, this pattern of
fossil fuel use, and thus GHG emissions, can be perceived to be somewhat locked
in, making it potentially more difcult for new low-carbon technologies to break
into the chemical value chain.
The chemical industry continues to be responsible for 30 % of industrial energy
use and about 5 % of global CO2 emissions. This chapter proposes that to seriously
address climate change, GHG emissions from the chemical industry need to be
severely reduced and that to do so will require a thorough understanding of the
Implications of Climate Change for the Petrochemical Industry: Mitigation. . . 423
integration between the oil and chemical industries and the ambiguous nature of
fossil carbon storage in chemical products. Truly sustainable solutions will therefore
need to address the future trends in petroleum resource availability and overcome the
barriers to market entry raised by the economics of the by-product relationship of
olens production and oil rening.
In addition to greatly increased global recycling, three options have been intro-
duced that could have the potential to either green the existing production para-
digm or disrupt it through radical innovation based on biotechnology. These three
technology areas efciency savings through CHP, carbon capture and storage, and
biorening could furthermore be combined to enable long-term organic chemical
production that is compatible with deep GHG emission cuts. In addition, demand
reduction and green chemistry are clearly identied as vital complements to the
introduction of new technologies. However, as the industry moves closer to a world
in which its use of carbon is tightly regulated, new tools that are able to account for
the full lifecycle impacts of organic chemicals will need to be developed and
established as international standards. For instance, there can be environmental
benets to locking up carbon in nondegradable plastics but only if they are not
subsequently burned for energy recovery without CCS. Likewise, if biomass
resources are limited, then there could be an argument for directing them to where
they can have the greatest impact on GHG emission reductions. This calls for a major
role for lifecycle assessment or policies that fully integrate carbon prices into the
world economy. The challenge appears to be immense and one that requires com-
mitted and enduring action from industry and government.
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