Name: Milas Ceren Hke 140408011 CE 462.

1 Water Resources Management

Exercise #1 Izmir Katip Celebi University

To be turned in: (a) the chart with the three data sets plotted and (b) describe the two regressions and explain

which of the two you will select to project future population? Based on what criteria?

(a)

Chart with the 3 data sets

180,000

160,000

140,000
Historic Data
120,000
Population

1970-2010
100,000
Whole Period

80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

0
1960

2050
1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2060
Years

(b) Trendline reliability A trendline is most reliable when its R-squared value is at or near 1. When you fit a

trendline to your data, Graph automatically calculates its R-squared value. If you want, you can display this

value on your chart. [1]

Power trendline is most suitable for data sets that show increase at a specific fashion. Exponential trendline is

also similar, but power trendline suits our data set with a higher trendline reliability. Linear trendline is

preferred when the data set follows a steady increase or decrease and resembles closely to a line. This trendline

fits a straight line on the data set.

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 Name: Milas Ceren Hke 140408011 CE 462.1 Water Resources Management
Exercise #1 Izmir Katip Celebi University

To decide which fit is more suitable to our data set, we evaluate the R-squared value, which represents trendline

reliability. For the population data between the years 1860 and 2010, the power trendline provides an R-squared

value of 0.96496, and it is the most reliable trendline compared to others. However, by observing the scatter

plot of the historic data, we conclude there is a somewhat linear increase between the years 1970-2010. This

prompts us to check for the R-squared value of the linear trendline for this interval. The resulting trendline

shows a reliability of 0.9915 and is closer to 1 compared to the R-squared value of the power fit in this interval,

0.97179. Therefore we decided that a linear trendline is most suitable for the years 1970-2010, and a power fit

for the entire historic data set.

Power until 1970, Linear after

100,000
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

To be turned in: (a) Did you select the linear growth equation as your population regression? (b) Was it

necessary to estimate the average decadal growth and compare it? (c) How does the estimation of the average

decadal growth help you support your decision to select a regression equation? Is this decision more supported

because of this last calculation?

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 Name: Milas Ceren Hke 140408011 CE 462.1 Water Resources Management
Exercise #1 Izmir Katip Celebi University

(a) Yes we did as our work proved the linear regression to be the most accurate model.

(b) Average decadal growth is a reliable benchmark for deciding if the applied regression is indeed accurate

enough to be accepted. The average decadal growth of the historic data is almost equal to that of the linear

regression model.

(c) The average decadal growth of the historic data gives insight to the increase in population of the recent

years. Our linear regression model having a similar average decadal growth implies that our extrapolation of

this data set, regarding the linear fashion of the increase in more recent years, is adequately probable.

To be turned in: (a) A column plot chart of the WUPC and precipitation, (b) Has the WUPC increased or

decreased? (c) How has the program Free Indoor Conservation Devices implemented in the last decade

impacted the WUPC in the region? http://www.pvwma.dst.ca.us/conservation/urban-areas.php (d) Find out how

much water is being used in Turkey (http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=18779) (e) Is the WUPC

(~125 gpd/person = 473 lpd/person) too much or too little? Take a look at the following picture to provide some

discussion.

a)

Chart of WUPC & Ppt

180 35.00
160 30.00
140
25.00
120
WUPC

100 20.00
80 15.00
Ppt

60
10.00
40
20 5.00
0 0.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Years
WUPC
Ppt

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 Name: Milas Ceren Hke 140408011 CE 462.1 Water Resources Management
Exercise #1 Izmir Katip Celebi University

b) WUPC has shown a decrease over the years.

c) It has significantly decreased WUPC and encouraged the expansion of household water saving applications.

d) WUPC in Turkey is estimated to be 203 lpd/person [2].

e) According to the picture there are only 2 countries which exceeds the WUPC of 473 lpd/person, one of which

is Australia, a country known for being extremely temperate. Therefore, we can conclude that it is far above

average.

To be turned in: (a) Provide a brief comment about why there is a slightly higher WUPC in rural communities

than in the city. Hints: Leakage? No meters? Less sophisticated equipment and water saving devices to supply

water?

a) In rural communities, agriculture is widely applied. Agricultural requirements of water paired with a

local management whose priority differs from water savings results in a higher WUPC.

To be turned in: (a) The plot of both water scenarios demand (Figure 57), provide your own comments about

reducing the WUPC (b) A policy is proposed to reduce the WUPC arbitrarily by a certain percentage (15%).

What kind of action would you propose to reduce the urban water demand? e.g. less water consumptive toilets?

Harvesting rainfall water?

a) Reduction of WUPC is a short term solution and with the continuing population increase, other

improvements are required.

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 Name: Milas Ceren Hke 140408011 CE 462.1 Water Resources Management
Exercise #1 Izmir Katip Celebi University

WUPC w/ & w/o decrease

14000

Total water usage

12000
without WUPC
Yearly Water Consumption AF/Y

decrease
Total water usage with
10000 %15 WUPC decrease

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Years

b) Banning landscape irrigation and expanding alternative water sources, desalination, encouraging

recycled water use, drip irrigation systems are all viable methods for decreasing WUPC.

References

[1] Microsoft, "https://support.office.com," 2017. [Online]. Available: https://support.office.com/en-

us/article/Choosing-the-best-trendline-for-your-data-1bb3c9e7-0280-45b5-9ab0-d0c93161daa8.

[2] TK, "http://www.tuik.gov.tr," 2014. [Online]. Available:

http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=18779.

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