Lloyd Yapas treatise on export

competitiveness: A must reference book for Sri

Lankas economic poli
Dwindling exports are Sri Lankas main constraint to prosperity
Monday, 11 December 2017

A pressing economic problem faced by the present Government, and any

government that would come to power in the future, is the dwindling export
earnings. They have been falling in relation to both the size of the economy,
known as the Gross Domestic Product or GDP, and the total world exports.

Exports as a percentage of GDP stood at about a third of GDP at the turn of the
new millennium. This ratio has now fallen to a level of a little over 12% by 2017.
As a percent of global exports, Sri Lankas exports have been on a declining path
continuously. The latest data relating to 2016 have stood at 0.05%, down from
0.08% in 2000.

The chain effect of dwindling export earnings

This dismal performance of exports, coupled with a ballooning import bill, has
generated a number of other economic problems: a stubborn trade deficit that
refuses to improve, an unaffordable current account deficit in the balance of
payments or BOP, pressure for the Government to borrow to finance the deficit in
BOP, declining foreign exchange reserves and the continuous pressure for the
exchange rate to depreciate in the market.

The Government has therefore identified the weak export performance as one of
the constraints to economic growth in its Vision 2025 and attuned all its economic
policies to transforming the countrys export sector to deliver prosperity to
people.

Lloyd F. Yapas treatise

In this background, a study published by economist Lloyd F. Yapa on improving

the countrys export competitiveness, along with other nations in South Asia, for
delivering prosperity to the poor comes in handy. The book titled Export
Competitiveness and Poverty Alleviation in South Asia with Special Reference to
Sri Lanka has been published by Godage and Brothers.
Yapa has been previously the Director of Policy and Planning of the Export
Development Board and is presently a livewire in the Sri Lanka Economic
Association or SLEA. According to the foreword by SLEAs former President, the
late Professor A.D.V. de S. Indraratna, the present volume is one of the research
studies undertaken by SLEA economists on Sri Lankas economic problems.

Sri Lankas official poverty line is misleading

According to Sri Lankas official poverty line, designed and

measured by the countrys statistics bureau, the Department of Census and
Statistics, the countrys poverty level has declined dramatically in the last decade
and a half. The number of households below poverty out of the total households
had thus declined from 15.2% in 2006/7 to 6.7% in 2012/3. However, this
measurement is based on an average monthly income of Rs. 4,123 per individual
that works out to be a minimum daily income of about Rs. 137 or just 89 US cents.
Yapa says that this measure is defective since a person cannot maintain himself
with a daily income of Rs 137. If one goes by the global standard of $ 2 per day
per individual, Yapa says that Sri Lankas poverty level, based on the same income
distribution used by Census and Statistics, is at staggering 34%.

What it means is that most of the poor in Sri Lanka are scattered just above the
threshold of the official poverty line and if the bar is raised a little, there would be
more poor people in the country than what the statistics would show. But a
consolation is that this high figure is much lower than most of the South Asian
countries. However, a disappointment would be that it is significantly higher than
some of the East Asian countries like Malaysia and Thailand.

Yapa, quoting Sri Lankas Centre for Poverty Analysis or CEPA, says that poverty is
multidimensional and its victims are subject to a number of severe deprivations
with devastating effect on human happiness, the final aim of any development
initiative.

The puzzle of unyielding poverty and lack of progress

Accordingly, Yapa says that the objectives of his study are to examine in greater
detail the puzzle of unyielding poverty and the need for improving the wellbeing
of people. For this purpose, Yapa has proposed the alternative of developing
exports by increasing investments and raising
competitiveness. As a side measure, he also suggests that the productivity of rural
agriculture should be improved by developing the social and economic
infrastructure in the rural areas.

Faulting the policy of concentrating only on a domestic consumption based

economy

This suggestion is in contrast with the policy of the previous administration which
based its economic policies mainly on developing a national economy catering to
the needs of Sri Lankans. Such a policy is normally hailed as insurance for the
domestic economy when the world is going through a difficult time shutting the
door for Sri Lankas export of goods and services.
These are known as external shocks and a country is well poised to facing such
shocks if it has a sizeable number of domestic consumers. Hence, policy makers in
many countries have concentrated on developing a strong domestic economy in
their respective countries as a fallback strategy when they are hit by adverse
global conditions. What was wrong with the previous administration was that
they did it to an extreme, overlooking exports as a viable source of delivering
prosperity to the nation.
More weaknesses than strengths and opportunities

Yapa has evaluated Sri Lankas present position in terms of strengths,

weaknesses, opportunities and threats, also known as SWOT analysis in strategy
formulations. His analysis has revealed that the weaknesses faced by the country
are greater in number than the strengths and opportunities it is enjoying.

These weaknesses had been known to policy makers for decades. Yet, they had
been allowed to compound themselves over the years without taking suitable
rectifying measures. Its corollary has been that they have now reached
unmanageable levels. But all the previous and administrations and also the
present one are responsible for perpetuating such weaknesses.

For instance, Yapa has noted that the countrys growth has been impeded by its
failure to build an integrated nation state called Sri Lanka. Such a nation state
could have brought all the diverse ethnic and religious groups under one umbrella
as Sri Lankans, just in the way Singapore had brought the Chinese, Malays and
Indians into one human group called Singaporeans.

Issue is not the education levels but following party line blindly

As such, Sri Lanka has failed to harness the potential and initiative of all the
minority groups for continued sustainable development. Yapa has also noted that
the low quality of politicians as masters of the nation as a major weakness.
However, his diagnosis that politicians are of low quality due to inadequate
education may be subject to dispute. The present problem of politicians is not
due to their low levels of education per se.

It is attributable to their being organised as political parties and having to toe in

the party line irrespective of whether the matters before them are just or unjust.
However, some of the weaknesses attributable to Sri Lankas economy, as
diagnosed by Yapa, have been the weak rule of law, corruption, waste and
ostentation. He has also identified the low quality of education and inadequate
level of technology as weaknesses that have fettered Sri Lanka in its march
toward prosperity.

FDIs to finance the high savings-investment gap

Yapa has taken pain in describing how Sri Lanka should create an enabling
environment for investment and export-led growth. Sri Lanka has to invest about
35% of its GDP annually to realise an adequate economic growth rate. Yet, its
savings could finance only about 22% of such investments. This has created a
sizable savings-investment gap of about 13% and it has to be filled by attracting
foreign savings, mainly in the form of foreign direct investments or FDIs.

However, compared to more successful countries like Singapore, India and

Malaysia whose FDIs are in multiples of billions, Sri Lankas track record of
attracting FDIs in the past has been totally disappointing. Yapa has noted that
during 2010 to 2015, FDIs received by Sri Lanka have been just close to $ 1 billion.

He has attributed the poor performance to disregard of good governance

principles, poor law and order, high corruption, failure to resolve ethnic conflict
and unsavoury ethical and family values. All these inhibiting factors have been
analysed in detail by Yapa in Chapter 3 of the book. Of them, the first four factors
have been analysed by other authors too on the subject of creating an enabling
environment for investment. However, the last factor, namely, unsavoury ethical
and family values, has been presented by Yapa in the context of prevailing
religious conditions of the country and therefore need be further elaborated.

Good governance is recognising what is right and rejecting what is wrong

Yapa says that the basis of good governance is the ability of people to distinguish
right from wrong. However, the foundation for cultivating this virtue is
discipline, tolerance and respect for natural environment. Though these qualities
are not alien to those who follow the path shown by the Buddha, surprisingly, it is
not the case with many Sri Lankans, especially politicians, according to Yapa.

He has noted that the religious leaders have failed to uphold the value of hard
work, self-discipline and the need for living harmoniously with others. When
religion has failed to inculcate these values in the young, politicians, entertainers
and media have assumed that role to the peril of all others in society. The end
result has been the creation of a pool of youngsters who have not been able to
take risk, tolerate opposing views and value the contributions made by others.

Yapa has come up with somewhat a rebellious solution to address the issue. He
has suggested that the Buddhist temple as a seat of spreading moral values
should be reorganised and the incumbent Buddhist priests should be trained to
interpret the Buddhas teachings in the light of psychology, logic, philosophy and
sociology.

This is in accord with what the Buddha had advised the Bhikkus in the Avasa
Sobhana Sutta. He had preached that the Bhikkus could illuminate the
monasteries they live in if they learn more and more Dhammas, remember and
understand those Dhammas, reflect on them continuously, gain ability to relate
them to others in their own words and develop ability to see beyond them. This
piece of wisdom by the Buddha is relevant not only to Bhikkus but also to all of us.

South Asias lost competitiveness

Yapa has found that South Asia has lost its competitiveness compared to more
advanced nations in East Asia, namely, Singapore and Malaysia. This is reflected in
the poor performance of its exports. For instance, as Yapa has reported, in 2015,
the share of Sri Lankas export of goods and services in GDP had been 13.7%. The
same share in Singapore had been 177% and in Malaysia, 75%. Similarly,
compared to Singapore, Sri Lankas ranking in the Global Competitiveness Index
compiled by the World Economic Forum, has been low throughout. While Sri
Lanka has been a failure in all the sub categories, the main culprits have been
macroeconomic instability and labour market inefficiency.

Vicious cycle of debt accumulation

The first factor has as its source the sorry state of the budgetary performance in
Sri Lanka. The Governments failure to generate savings in its current operations
has forced it to borrow even for financing its consumption. The result has been
the accumulation of debt, need for using almost the entirety of government
revenue for meeting annual debt repayment and payment of interest and eternal
reissue of debt to meet debt obligations. Since debt is not linked to development
but to finance the debt repayment, it has slowed the growth, contributed to
inflation and finally reflected on the exchange rate. With this type of
macroeconomic instability, Sri Lankas export competitiveness has been low.

Yapas book a must read

The focus of Yapas treatise is narrow. It has sought to show how export
competitiveness could help South Asian countries to alleviate poverty. Poverty is
only one problem faced by these countries. The main economic problem faced by
them is how these countries could deliver prosperity to the whole population on a
sustainable basis and help their populations join the rich country club within the
shortest time possible. In that context, exports and integration to the global
market have been the strongest weapons available to them to deliver prosperity
to their people. The book would have been complete if Yapa had sought to
address this issue.

Despite this narrow focus, the appearance of his book is timely. It has dug into the
core of the economic problems faced by Sri Lanka today. All the successive
governments have contributed to this sad state of affairs. If Sri Lanka is interested
in recovering what has been lost in the past, a sure way is to pay heed to the
suggestions he has made.

Hence, Yapas book will be a worthy reading for both the students and
policymakers.

(W.A. Wijewardena, a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka,
can be reached at waw1949@gmail.com.)
Posted by Thavam