Professional Documents
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Abstract. The aim of this paper is to mak e c l ea r the p rosi,e cts and po licies
for waste paper r ecyc ling and utilization in Japan . The was t e p a pe r r ecy -
cling sys t em is composed of wany p roc e sses rel evan t to the p roducti on , dis -
tribution and cor6umption of pape r and boa~d, and the gene rati o n , recovery
and dis posal of wa ste p a pe r. A dy namic model of the national leve l i s devel -
oped fi:- ;; ': Sf) as to <;i::lU lat c> th e behaviour of th e who le system and to c l arify
the real i ssue in this system. Then , the dynamic simul a ti on on th e futur e
trend of waste pape r r ecycling and uti l ization i s carri e d o ut and at t he same
time th e po l icy that will be th e most p romising in order t o p romot e t he was t e
p a pe r r ecyc ling is made clear . The quantitative assessmen t of several p ra c -
t i ca l measu r es for th e r e conci l iation of t he p ro b lem of futur e waste p a pe r
supp l y and requir e men t is pe r formed . As a r es ult , i t i s conc l u ." ed that th e
most effective and desirab l e counte rmeasur e for overcoming t he antici pa t e d
sho r tag e of waste p a pe r supply in the futur e i s to increase the r ecove ry rat e
of waste p a pe r up to 60% by revisin g and consolidating the co ll ec tion sec tor .
Ke ywords . Waste pape r r e cyc l ing; mode l ling ; system anal ys i s ; s i mulation
271
272
Jap an has grown very rapidly along ',:i th eco - can b e simp ly e xp r e ss e d as s ho.,!"! i n Fig . 3 .
nomic deve l opment since th e 1 9 6 0 ' s . The ac - From this figur e , it j~ easil~' und e rstood ~O~
tual product io n 0 ' pape r and boa rd exc, ",c, ' c 16 and from what variab l e s the ~ajor state v~ria
mi llion tons , in 1978. The'actual production bles ar e d e t e ~in e d . As for t he state varia -
of pu l p is about 1 0 I ~. i l l i o n tons , and the an - bl e s Yl [ Inventory of r a r er at t he ~a n uf ac
nual consumption of pape r and board pe r cap ita tu r e r 1 ' Y2 [Inve ntor y of pal)e r at t :-- e ..:".o l e -
is 141. 6 kg. Almost al l pa p er and boa rd p ro - sa le r ] , Y4 ! I nv e ntor y of wast e pape r at t ~e
duced is domestically consumed. About 40 % of r e covery trad e r 1 and 1" , [Inve :: ', 'c ' of . :a s t e
t he amount consummed is r ecovered . Of th e p aper at t'1e manufact~r~r] in the d iff e r e :'tial
r emain ing unrecovered 60% , about 1 0% i s stored equations of t he mod e l, the f o 11 0 . :ing relation
or utilized as a p ermanent stock such as books commonly holds;
i n libraries and b uild i ng p a p e r i n construc- [Chang e of inven tory ]
tion etc. About 30 % i s us e d for some s p ecial [Estinat e d s:l l e s a::lount] + [De sira b le
t ype of pape r and board such as pa r affin - month - end inve ntory ] - [Pr e s e n t
coated pape r for wate r- p roofi ng etc . which is inve ntory] - [Actual s .l e s amount]
not suitab l e f o r recycled use and t hus even - where for y and y_, the additio ~a l t e r ::l
tual l y becomes refuse . About 20 % is also dis - r e lated to th e inv~ ntory adju s tne nt must b e
posed of as refuse , even thou ';" it is still adde d to the ri ght h and side of t h e eq uation .
r eusab l e . Recovered was t e p a p e r is a valuab l e
raw mate rial f or the pape r and boa rd i ndustry Th e diff e rential e quation wit h r e s pect to y
3
and is comp l e t ely utili z ed f o r domestic de - [Pape r stock in hous e ho l d s ] s hows that t h e
mand . The im; 'orta ;-,c C' o f r eco v ered was t e paper time d e rivat i v e of th e p a pe r s tock in con -
as a raw mate ri a l is g r owing due to the sour - sumers is equa l to t he d'.ff e r e nc e of z
ing pr i ces of both v irgin p ul p and imported [Amount o f pa pe r consumrne d b~' l: o useholJs] and
pulp wood . (44 % of the t otal nec e ssary p ul p z4 [Amount of p a pe r disc h arged fro n h ous e -
wood came fr om i mports , i n 19 79) . holds] . The diff e r e ntial equati o ns of z4
shows that z h as a time l a g of t he first
. 4
o r der w1th res pect to z3 '
MODEL STRUCTURE
From this contracte d mathemati c al model s hown
The sta rting po int of the anal y sis he r e i s the in Fi g . 3 , th e values of e ac h s tat e varia b l e
s i mp l e mate rial flow mode l, Fig.l . The r e cov- can b e consecutivel y de t e rni ne d by pe rfoming
ery o f waste paper is strongly influenced by the calculation according to t he step s di
business trend s . Therefore , it i s first nec - r ecte d by the arrows in th e fi g ur e .
essary to e xamine the month l y changes of both
t he economic factors re l ating to waste pap er
recovery - (that i s , the price of waste p a pe r , SPi ULATI ON
gross national expend iture , private invest-
men t in plant and equipment , e t c . ) , and the Bas e d on t: ,, d y namic mod e l d e v e lope d in t he
quanti:..::tive factors of paper , board and waste previous sect i on , t o,. calculation for t l~ e
pape r - (that i s , amo u nt of produc ti on , utili- simulat i on is p e rformed for th e p eriod of th e
z at i on rat e , recovery rat e and amount of p ast ten years (from 1968 t h roug h to 1977).
stocks e t c . ) The calculate d valu e s fro m t he ~o d e l ar e com-
p are d to the availab le r e al d at a . It i s
In order to build a mathematical model of such la t e r s h o~n t h at t hey agr ee qu i te ~ e ll wit h
a l arge scale system as the wast e p a , n r r _, e ac h oth e r. Judging from t h i s good a g r eeme nt ,
cling system at the natio nal level , it is nec - it may safely b G s aid that th e ca lculat e d
essary t o analyse the information available at valu e s o f the state varia bl .s t h e r e al da t~
present so as t o mak e the r e lationshi p amo ng of wh ic h ar e ~ o t ava ila b l e cou l d be a fairl y
the variab l es c l ear. Then, a t e ntat i ve mod e l go od es tiMati on o f t ;-: e :::,a s t. r o f L -:esc: ,"l" :
anc y between the mod e l out p uts a nd th e r e al ove r fro~ t:1e ~ r ese~ t ~ ~ to ~:SC ~ . ~ . is
data . ; 'e rf o r:-1 e d b":-' c a rri:)~ O 'Jt t:-.e s i:-:-::.ll ation f o r
t:-. e s e v e ral cas es '..::~e r e t:~ e a ssu::'l: tior,s o~
By repe ating the p rocedure exp lain e d above , t~ e futur e e sti ~ ati o ~ o f ~ a ~~' e c o~ o~ic and
--"
/
SIPP PJ )
I.A .A . - T
274 T. Takama t s u e t al .
exte.nal variables
g. (T) (i=1,2)
1
~ZlO=[kl/(l-kl)fl(gl,gZ) g j (t) (j=3,4,S,6)
~
6 4
where a s (t)=F 1 (z7)' b S (t)=k S3 F 1 (z7)
Z9=z4(t)-zS(t) 1 a 4 (t)=z4(t)f 4 (g3,g4) and b (t)=k F (z6)
4 43 1
z6=a S (t)+b
S
(t)-YS(t)
+(1-k ) ( Y4(t)-b (t))
I
6 4
where fl(gl,gZ)=~P3+P6)gl+(P4+P7)gZ+(PS+Pg))/lZ,
fz(gl, g Z, g S,g6) = [gS(P3g1+P4gZ+PS)+ g 6(P6g1+P7gZ+Pg))/lZf ,
1
f 3 (gl, g Z, g S,g6)=(1-P 11 f 1 )/PIZ'
f4 (g3 ,g4)=P9+ (PI0/100) (g4/gS) /16,
"" i-I
Fl ( Zj ) = i h (S/6) Zj (t-i)/6
The va l ues be t wee n Tab l e Es t ima t ed Val u es adjustmen t coe f fi c i e nt of est imated p a pe r
19 79 and 1989 are es - of gl an d g 2 sh i pme nt from t he manufacturer] i s calcu l ated
timat e d by taking into as fol l ows ,
account the ye a r l y gl g2
change in business Ye a r i. e . (k )264 /P4 = 2.87,
7
tr e nds. The va l ues 19 78 10 .81 1.708
after 1990 a r e esti - 19 80 11 .84 1.911 k7 = 1. 00802
mat ed under the as - 19 82 13.03 2.134
sumption tha t the eco - 19 84 14.54 2.40 2 The f o l lowing clssumptions are se t out i n t he
nomic growth rat e is 19 86 15 . 84 2.6 20 simu l ation o f t hree c as es .
constant . 19 88 17.78 3.00 2
1990 19.5 8 3 . 38 6 Ca se I
As fo r the parameters, 1992 21. 38 3 .7 33 (1) Th'2 upper l i Mit o f che r ec0ver,' rat e e f
(1) p and P2 [Sea- 199 4 2 3. 35 4.115 was~e pape r (S)2 i s 50 %,
1
sonal ind i ces of pape r 1996 25.50 4.5 37
p roduction and p a pe r 1998 2 7 . 84 5.00 2 i. e. S::: 50(%).
consumption,respec - 2000 30.41 I 5 . 515
tive ly ] a r e f i xe d as 13 (2) The actual p a pe r e xp, Ht rati o (k ) i s
p = p = 100 . Sea - (10 y en/ yea r) l
kep t at the p re sen t l e vel ,
1
sonal 2
pertur b at ~" on ~ s not tak e n '~nto account.
(2 ) p . (i= 3- l 4) [Reg r ess ion coef fi cients ], i.e . 0 . 0 2 4.
kj (j~2 -S ) [ I nventor y - sa les ratios ], k
[Coeff i cient of inventory adjustmen t a~ th e (3) The actual waste pape r p ric e (g4) changes
recove r y trad e r] are a ss umed to be the same in the fo llowing f o ~~ different wa ys .
as in 19 77 . ---------------- .-----
(3) Since the pape r p r odu c ti on is estimat ed 2 S [r ecove r y r at e of waste p a pe r ] is d8 f i ned
to become 2.87 times the p re sen t d ur ing th e by the ratio of (z4 /zS)X 100 .
22 yea rs fr om 1 978 through to 2000 , k7 [?he
Waste Paper Recycling System in Japan 275
3
Letting the time origin (t =0) be J a nu- is import e d wh e n the i nv e ntor y - s al e s rati o
ary, 1978, (= Y4/z6) b e comes l e ss than 0 .1 5 [month)
(No.l) g4 is constant after 1 9 79.
(NO.2) a = 0
i.e. g4 = 14.13
(No. 7) a = 2. 5
(No.2) g4 becomes 2 times d:.lr ing 20 years.
i.e. (No.8) a = 5. 0
g4 = 14.13 + 0.05887t
(4) As for the import policy of waste p aper, 4- 2 The calcu lated values of' trre "XlY'-!.::li:;&es the
the following cases are considered. pea l data of '.Jn i cn ': ~ . , :r ;: _ ;, ;;:~;] ;an-:;
That is, a % of the estimated purchasing
amount of waste paper in the manufacturer An advantage of utilizing this kind of mathe -
matical model i s that it is possibl e to esti-
3 The unit of time t is measured in months mate the variabl.' s th e real data of which are
276 T. Takamatsu e t al.
not available, by using the calculated values following measures are considered in order to
from the model. As an example, the es timated further promote the recovery of waste paper:
values o~ z (Amount of paper discharged from (i) To increase the collection of waste pa-
households]~ z5 (Amount of waste paper col- per by steadily rising the price of
lected by recovery trader], z (Amount of waste paper;
waste paper disposed of as refuse], y (paper (ii) To increase t h 'J recovery rate by consoli-
stock in households] and y (Inventor~ of dating the structure of the waste paper
waste paper at recovery tr~der] are shown in collection system;
Fig.5. z4 and Y3 represent the same tendency (iii) To compensate for the domestic shortage
of h:as te papt..:r by
importing it from
1(10 6 ton abroad.
1.8
In order Lo evaluate
the availabili t"
of such neasures
Judging from t he
r es ult s mentioned
1.6
1.4
__ ~,
h0 IV\
5
'9(No.5)
)
above , it can be
1.2
easily unde r stood
that the most e f- 1.0
fective and desir - /'<' (No. 5)
able counter-
0.8
measure t o ove r- 0.6
come the antici -
p ated sho rt age of
2xY4 \(NO .2)
\
\\
0.4
was t e pape r s upp l y
i n t he futur e is
t o inc r ease the
0.2 \ \
r ecove r y rat e of 01978 '80
waste pape r up to
'85 '90 '95 2000
Year
60% by consoli- Fig. 7 Forecasting of Y , z6' and z9 in case II
dat i ng t he co ll ec - 4
tion system .
es timat ed fr om the
real data , and the
>110 6 ton
conf i dence of th e
mode l is confirmed 2.0
by compa ri ng the
ca l cu l ated values 1.8
fr om the model with
th e r e al dat ~ rang-
1.6
ing o v e r 1 0 ye~r ~ ,
1.4
(Fig . 4 . )
1.2
The mode l is first
____ ' I
utiliz ed for pre - 1.0
dicting th e change
of state variables
th e r ea l data of
which a r e not avail - 0.6
.~ \/\VJ.:iIAtV/~: ,
\'V1\ V
;\\:\ ,1\
, , !'
ii:
r,
\ ' ,
/
\ \ V\ :i V
a b l e. (Fig. 5) Then , , \ \ ,I
it i s used to quan - 0.4 2XY 4 (NO.2\ '-'\ \ ~
titative l y assess
thr ee measures for 0.2 ~No.7l (NO.8~
p r event ing th~ an - i
ti cipated shortage 197~8~1-8~0~~~~'~85~~~'~
\ ~19~0"~~~'~9~5~~~2~000
of t he s upply of Year
waste p a pe r in t he Fig. 8 Forecasting of Y4' z6, and z9 in case III
fu ture .
Fr om the r es ult s of
th e s imulatio n
(Fig. 6-8 ), i t was c larifi ed that the i ncrease APPENDIX 1
i n the r ecovery ra te of Case IT i s the most
desirable among these thr ee meas ur es. MATHEMATI CAL MODEL
for I,aste Pape r Recyc li ng in th e Pulp and zl (t) P11 z7 (t) + P 12 z 8(t) (6 )
o f Paper Indu st r y ".
Glass e r y , C . R., an~ V. K. Gupta (1 965 ). A li p - z2 (t ) k Z (t) x (t) + zlO(t) (7) 1
7 31 9
ea r programming analysi s of paper recy -
cl ing. Stud i es i n Managemen t Science whe r e Z has the first orde r time lag
and Systems Vo l. 2. No rt h - Hol l and. . h 31
w ~t r espect to z3 '
Chap .1 3 , pp . 273 - 292 .
i. e .
Clif ford , J . S ., M. A. Laughton , T . S . McRobe rt s dZ (t)
31
and P . V. Slee (1 978 ) . LP model li ng i n P14 dt + z31 (t) = z3(t)
the p a pe r i ndustry as an a i d t o r ecyc li ng
dec isions . Con se rvat i on & Recycling , ~ 1 1
9 7-1 09 . z3(t) = 12 x 17 (T)1 00 P2(t) (8 )
i 2 { (t -l ) + Sxl O (t-l) }
2
(25)
manufacturer ] is concurrently equal to the
amount 0 f pape r pu rc hased by the .,; holesa l er.
The wholesaler seems to for ecast his pur -
x (t) (26) 1 chasing amount by analysing t he past trend of
11
the amount of pape r p urchased by cons\.l:" cr.
where k (t) has the first order time lag He re it is assumed that t he es timat ed value
23
with r espect to k (t) . of 2 , 2 , can be obtained from the diffe r . n -
2
i. e .
tia13equ~~ion ~hich has the first order time
dk lag ,:ith res pect to 2 . (The time constant
T ~ + k = k2 (26) 2 p is assumed to be 1
months . ) The es timat-
2 dt 23
e~4value 231 is modi fi ed by multip~in~ b! a
Yl (t) - x (t) (27) f actor k used to compens ~ te for the inade -
11 7
quacy in this es timation. The actua l amount
1 1 of p aper pu rchased by th e wholesaler (2 ) is
100 P I (t)~23(T) - x 12 (t) 2
given by subtructing the variation of Ehe
pape r stock at t l: c wholesdl,T (x ), due to
(2S) 9
280 T. Takamatsu c: ~ a. l .
th e invento r y adjustment , from the modified Eq. (16) - (27): Va riab l es x. (i=1 -3) , x, (j=4 -6 )
estimated value of z3 (k z ) and adding the are relevant to the invenEories of wJste pa -
7 31
amount of net paper e xpo rt (ZlO)' per at the manufacturer and at the recovery
trad e r s , resoectively. x (k=7-9) and x
Eq. (8): The amount of pape r puchased by con - (e=1 0- 1 2) ar~ also r e leva~t to the inve~tories
sumer (z3) is equa l to the value which is of p a pe r at t he wholesale r and manufacturer,
obtained by mul ti pl ~.' i "S t'i'c seasonal ind ex of r espective l y.
pape r consumption (p ) by the average p a pe r
consumption per montfi which is calculated by The average monthly utilization of paper or
d i viding the annual i,ape r d e mand in the do- waste pape r (x., i=1,4,7,lO) is calculated by
mestic ma rk u t(x ) by 12. smoothing the Bast r eco rd in such a way that
17
th e older t he data is , the smaller is the
Eq. (9): The pape r p urchased by t he consumer coeffici e nt weighed ~y us ing an exponential
is d i sposed of with a certain time l ag with type of wighting function.
respect to the purchas ing time. This time
lag is assumed to :,' the first order '-"icos" The standard value of each inventory of paper
tim" c;on,; tilllt to is on c mont!~. or waste paper (X i ' i=L , ~;, 8 , 11) is expressed by
13
th e p r oduc t of tne average utilization of p a-
Eq . (1 0 ): Zs [Amount of waste pa:, e r coll ec ted pe r o r waste paper and the average inventory-
by the recovery trad e r] is a ~s" med to be de- sales ratio of pape r or waste paper (k ,k ,
S 4
termined by adding the term r elevan t to the k3 , k ) .
2
inven tory adjustment to the p roduct of z
[Amount of paper discbarged from househoids] Iffien the average inventory-sales ratio changes,
and (P9+ P 1 0 x 0 ) [Estimated r ecovery rat e] . it s change does not directly cause the varia -
Where est~mated recovery rat e is p resumed to tion of the standard level of the inventory,
be a linea r fun ction of x [Auxiliary varia - but its influenc e has a certain time lag.
ble on t he waste pape r prfge] . The capabili - So , the average inventory-sales ratio in which
ty of the inventory adjustment of the r ecov - the first order time lag is taken into account,
ery trader seems to be insufficient. Th e r e - is used here. The time constant of this time
fo r e , as a coefficient to express its weak - lag is assumed to be 3 months.
ness in adjustment aLility, k [Coefficient
of inven tory adjustment in re80very trader] The variation of each inventory of paper or
is introduced, and this coefficient is multi- was t e p aper (x" i=3,6,9,12) is tae difference
plied to x6 [Variation of the inv0 ntory of between the acEual inventory (Yi' i=S,4,21)
waste paper at the recovery trader]. and i ts standard level.
Eq. (11): z6 [Amount of waste paper purchased Eq . (28): The planned month l y paper p roduction
by the ma: :ufacturer] is determined by sub - (x ) is given by sub tracting the var iation of
13 ,
tracting x [Variation of invento r y of waste t h e lnventory due to t h e lnventory
' a d'Justment
pape r at t~e manufacturer] from x [Estimat - f e om the p roduct of the average planned month -
ea, pue:: h ' 16
as~ng amount of waste pape r by the ly :' a p( r p roduction (x /12) and the seasonal
23
manufacturer] and adding th e supplementary ind e x of paper productlon (Pl)' Eventually,
amount of waste p aper which is kept in stock this value becomes equal to che amount of
to compensate for t he weakness in the inven - paper p roduction at the manufacturer (zl) '
tory adjustment ability of the recovery
trader . Eq~(29) : The utilization ratio of waste paper
for pape r and board (x 4) is obtained by
Eqs . (12) (13): z7 and z [amounts of utiliza - di vidi ng t', e. "urn of t", l' ewo products by th e
tion of waste paper an~ virgin p ulp, re spec - annual demand for all kinds of paper. The
tiv e l y ] is determined by multi p l ying ?3 C!1 uti- first prod uct is obtained by multiplying the
lizatio n ratio (x ) or (x ) ~y x annual demand for pape r by the uti lization
["la"", d mont',l ... ' [:%,0, r i ro~~ction]~3 rati o of waste pape r for paper production (gsL
and the second is the annual de:-:,a nd for board
Eq . (14): Zg [Amount of ',vaste p ape r disposed multiplied by the uti li zation ratio of waste
of as r e fus e] is the amount of uncollected pape r for board p roduction (g6) '
... r l~'7lo~n L 0 f i. a: ,-: r -ii sc:::a r q.:c :: r ,; ;n !lOUS'~' -
h~ldl . Eq . (3 0 ): The utilization ratio of virg i n pulp
for p a p er and board (x 5) is obtained from
Eq. (1 5) : Since z [:'lonthly n e t p aper expor t] Eqs. (6), (12), (13) and ehe condition that
, 10
~s v e r y small compared to the pape r produc- zl=x 13
tion, zlO is assumed to be constant t hought -
out a yea r and to be (1/12) xx [~!::. ual p a- Eq . (31): Estimated amount of p urchased waste
18 paper by the manufacturer (x ) is obtained by
per expo rt]. lp
soomthing the pas t value of cne amount of
(c) Equations of Xi (i =1 - 23) co: ~ sum p tion of waste pape r z7 (t - i) with an
exponential type we ighting factor. Conse -
Equations relevant to (x ,x ,x ), (x ,x ,x ), quently, this value is equal to the average
(x7 , x8'x~) and (XI O,Xll,k1 2) ail hav~ t~e
2 6 value of t ",-- waste pape r consumption at the
same matnemat~cal st ructur e , and they are manufacturer (x l)'
utilized to calculate the va riations of the
inventories . El{ . (32) : .7,nt,ual domestic consumption of paper
and board (x ) is the sum of the annual
17
Waste Paper Recycling System In Japan 281
t month
'r year