You are on page 1of 13

PAPER RECYCLING AND WASTE WATER

Copyright IFAC PRP 4 Automation. Ghent . Belgium 1980

DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF WASTE PAPER


RECYCLING SYSTEM IN JAPAN

T. Takamatsu*, I. Hashimoto*, F. Yoshida** and H. Ohno***

Department of Chemical Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, japan


Osaka Prefectural Industrial Research Institute, Osaka, japan
Department of Ch emical Engineen'n g, Kob e University, Kobe, japan

Abstract. The aim of this paper is to mak e c l ea r the p rosi,e cts and po licies
for waste paper r ecyc ling and utilization in Japan . The was t e p a pe r r ecy -
cling sys t em is composed of wany p roc e sses rel evan t to the p roducti on , dis -
tribution and cor6umption of pape r and boa~d, and the gene rati o n , recovery
and dis posal of wa ste p a pe r. A dy namic model of the national leve l i s devel -
oped fi:- ;; ': Sf) as to <;i::lU lat c> th e behaviour of th e who le system and to c l arify
the real i ssue in this system. Then , the dynamic simul a ti on on th e futur e
trend of waste pape r r ecycling and uti l ization i s carri e d o ut and at t he same
time th e po l icy that will be th e most p romising in order t o p romot e t he was t e
p a pe r r ecyc ling is made clear . The quantitative assessmen t of several p ra c -
t i ca l measu r es for th e r e conci l iation of t he p ro b lem of futur e waste p a pe r
supp l y and requir e men t is pe r formed . As a r es ult , i t i s conc l u ." ed that th e
most effective and desirab l e counte rmeasur e for overcoming t he antici pa t e d
sho r tag e of waste p a pe r supply in the futur e i s to increase the r ecove ry rat e
of waste p a pe r up to 60% by revisin g and consolidating the co ll ec tion sec tor .

Ke ywords . Waste pape r r e cyc l ing; mode l ling ; system anal ys i s ; s i mulation

INTRODUCTION th e was t e p a pe r r eco v e ry and uti l ization , and


at t he same time to made clear wh at po licy
In r e cent ye ars , the .recycle utilization of wi l l be most p romi si ng in order t o p romote
r esources has been of g r e at impor tanc e as an waste pape r r ecycljng,
effective measure for the solution of energy ,
re s ources and env i ronmental po llution p rob - A rough materia l balance in t he p rocess es of
lems . Within t h is conte xt , the recover y and the pape r p rodu ction , distribution, wast e
utilization of wa ste p a pe r l h ave tended to p a pe r r ecove ry and disposal in Jap an is shown
increase in developed countries. Many s tud- in Fig. 1 . The p aper and p ul p industry in
i es h ave been pub l ished wh ic h h a ve tried to
e x p l ain why th e recove ry of was t e p a pe r a nd
its util i zation have inc r e as ed and why and by DO"7estic
how much it is expected to increase i n t he
futur e . (OECD r eport , 1 976 ; Glassery and
Gup ta , 1 9 7. 5 ; Cliff o rd and Co - wo rkers , 1 9 78;
Tunne r , Grace and Pearce , 1 978 ) The ai m o f
CO>lsu",;,ticm
( 16 . 3)
r. I~ ."Iefuse
(9.4)
c-o-n-s-u-m-e...Jrc.-,~

th e r ese arch r epo rt e d he r e i s to mak e clea r


th e p rospects and p o l icies for waste pape r (6.9)
(0.5)
recyc l ing system in Japan . For this p~ rpose ,
a dynamic model of the national level in
Jap an is first d eve loped . This includes a ll
t he p rocesses rel evant to th e p roduction,
distribution and consumption of p a pe r a nd
- ---,-J
IWho1e-s~l ;;

board , and th e generation , r eco v e r y and dis -


(6 . 9)
posal of waste p a pe r . By using the d e v eloped
( 0 . 3)
I
mode l, the real issue i n t he p romotion of
waste paper rec yc ling and utilization i s
clar i fi e d . By changing t he assumptions a bo ut
YManufacturer
A A
fJ
po l ic y developme nt wh ic h mayo r way no t be
realized, many s imulation calculations are
:':,, ~:: -.J L ?-.A l:: I '";:; cY'tec!.
(9 . 1) 0. 3)
pe rformed to f o recast the future tr e nds of

1 Throug hout t .n ~. s p a pe r , t h e t e rm waste p a pe r Fig. 1 Paper f l ow in Japan


(mil l ion ton; 1 978)
a l so inc l udes was t e b oard .

271
272

Jap an has grown very rapidly along ',:i th eco - can b e simp ly e xp r e ss e d as s ho.,!"! i n Fig . 3 .
nomic deve l opment since th e 1 9 6 0 ' s . The ac - From this figur e , it j~ easil~' und e rstood ~O~
tual product io n 0 ' pape r and boa rd exc, ",c, ' c 16 and from what variab l e s the ~ajor state v~ria
mi llion tons , in 1978. The'actual production bles ar e d e t e ~in e d . As for t he state varia -
of pu l p is about 1 0 I ~. i l l i o n tons , and the an - bl e s Yl [ Inventory of r a r er at t he ~a n uf ac
nual consumption of pape r and board pe r cap ita tu r e r 1 ' Y2 [Inve ntor y of pal)e r at t :-- e ..:".o l e -
is 141. 6 kg. Almost al l pa p er and boa rd p ro - sa le r ] , Y4 ! I nv e ntor y of wast e pape r at t ~e
duced is domestically consumed. About 40 % of r e covery trad e r 1 and 1" , [Inve :: ', 'c ' of . :a s t e
t he amount consummed is r ecovered . Of th e p aper at t'1e manufact~r~r] in the d iff e r e :'tial
r emain ing unrecovered 60% , about 1 0% i s stored equations of t he mod e l, the f o 11 0 . :ing relation
or utilized as a p ermanent stock such as books commonly holds;
i n libraries and b uild i ng p a p e r i n construc- [Chang e of inven tory ]
tion etc. About 30 % i s us e d for some s p ecial [Estinat e d s:l l e s a::lount] + [De sira b le
t ype of pape r and board such as pa r affin - month - end inve ntory ] - [Pr e s e n t
coated pape r for wate r- p roofi ng etc . which is inve ntory] - [Actual s .l e s amount]
not suitab l e f o r recycled use and t hus even - where for y and y_, the additio ~a l t e r ::l
tual l y becomes refuse . About 20 % is also dis - r e lated to th e inv~ ntory adju s tne nt must b e
posed of as refuse , even thou ';" it is still adde d to the ri ght h and side of t h e eq uation .
r eusab l e . Recovered was t e p a p e r is a valuab l e
raw mate rial f or the pape r and boa rd i ndustry Th e diff e rential e quation wit h r e s pect to y
3
and is comp l e t ely utili z ed f o r domestic de - [Pape r stock in hous e ho l d s ] s hows that t h e
mand . The im; 'orta ;-,c C' o f r eco v ered was t e paper time d e rivat i v e of th e p a pe r s tock in con -
as a raw mate ri a l is g r owing due to the sour - sumers is equa l to t he d'.ff e r e nc e of z
ing pr i ces of both v irgin p ul p and imported [Amount o f pa pe r consumrne d b~' l: o useholJs] and
pulp wood . (44 % of the t otal nec e ssary p ul p z4 [Amount of p a pe r disc h arged fro n h ous e -
wood came fr om i mports , i n 19 79) . holds] . The diff e r e ntial equati o ns of z4
shows that z h as a time l a g of t he first
. 4
o r der w1th res pect to z3 '
MODEL STRUCTURE
From this contracte d mathemati c al model s hown
The sta rting po int of the anal y sis he r e i s the in Fi g . 3 , th e values of e ac h s tat e varia b l e
s i mp l e mate rial flow mode l, Fig.l . The r e cov- can b e consecutivel y de t e rni ne d by pe rfoming
ery o f waste paper is strongly influenced by the calculation according to t he step s di
business trend s . Therefore , it i s first nec - r ecte d by the arrows in th e fi g ur e .
essary to e xamine the month l y changes of both
t he economic factors re l ating to waste pap er
recovery - (that i s , the price of waste p a pe r , SPi ULATI ON
gross national expend iture , private invest-
men t in plant and equipment , e t c . ) , and the Bas e d on t: ,, d y namic mod e l d e v e lope d in t he
quanti:..::tive factors of paper , board and waste previous sect i on , t o,. calculation for t l~ e
pape r - (that i s , amo u nt of produc ti on , utili- simulat i on is p e rformed for th e p eriod of th e
z at i on rat e , recovery rat e and amount of p ast ten years (from 1968 t h roug h to 1977).
stocks e t c . ) The calculate d valu e s fro m t he ~o d e l ar e com-
p are d to the availab le r e al d at a . It i s
In order to build a mathematical model of such la t e r s h o~n t h at t hey agr ee qu i te ~ e ll wit h
a l arge scale system as the wast e p a , n r r _, e ac h oth e r. Judging from t h i s good a g r eeme nt ,
cling system at the natio nal level , it is nec - it may safely b G s aid that th e ca lculat e d
essary t o analyse the information available at valu e s o f the state varia bl .s t h e r e al da t~
present so as t o mak e the r e lationshi p amo ng of wh ic h ar e ~ o t ava ila b l e cou l d be a fairl y
the variab l es c l ear. Then, a t e ntat i ve mod e l go od es tiMati on o f t ;-: e :::,a s t. r o f L -:esc: ,"l" :

is bui lt, and it is examin e d as to wheth e r or varia l:: l e s .


not t h e model out p ut s can sufficiently e xp lain
the behaviour of the real data . If agre e ment 7h e valu e s of t he ~a r a~ e t e r s a ~~ e xt e rnal i n-
between t c',,-, model o utp uts and the r eal data p uts (e xogenous vari ab l e s) US Gd in th e sinu-
can not b e o b tained, the tentative mod e l is lation calculati o:, ar e sh o~ ~ i ~ ~ rpe njix 3.
revised by c h anging the numbe r and the i-.i:,d of
state va r iab l"~s ,",O::i- to d e cre as e the discre l) - T~~e for e casti~ g o ~ ~ ~~e ~utu~ c tr end ra~ g i ~g

anc y between the mod e l out p uts a nd th e r e al ove r fro~ t:1e ~ r ese~ t ~ ~ to ~:SC ~ . ~ . is
data . ; 'e rf o r:-1 e d b":-' c a rri:)~ O 'Jt t:-.e s i:-:-::.ll ation f o r
t:-. e s e v e ral cas es '..::~e r e t:~ e a ssu::'l: tior,s o~
By repe ating the p rocedure exp lain e d above , t~ e futur e e sti ~ ati o ~ o f ~ a ~~' e c o~ o~ic and

t he most updat e d mod e l for the -."aste p < ce r r e - s oc ial factors ar e c~ a n g e j .


cycling syste m in Jap an is o b tai ne d , as s h own
in Fig . 2. The d e tailed math e matical exp r ess ion The annual ir,c r -2a s es i;: - :- e x ogc :10'J.S va r i a -
of t h is model is given in App e ndix 1, and t he bl es gl fActual g r o s s nationa l e X P G~ditur e ]
~ean in g of each equation is e xplained i n ~~ ~ 9, [~ct',Jal ; r~vat e ?la~t anj e ~ui9~ e ~t
App endix 2. ir.\;!2 sE::1e :lt] :J!:- e sti~at e d as S:-.O",-::--. i1. -:a ;:' l e 1 ,
j a sed o n t~1 e ar.:l ua l 0 c o ~o:-:-:i = g r o ~t~ rat e
By e l im i nating auxiliar y state variabl e s Xi f o r e cast ed jy :' :-.12 Ja ;:~ ar. e s ~ go \"e r :1:-l-2 :-.t :s. :1j t: ':e
(i =1 - 23) in the math e matical e xp r e ssion of t h e e conon ists.
model , the' at ",<'!'la ti ca l structure of t'1 e model
Waste Pa per Recyclin g Systemin Japan 273

--"

/
SIPP PJ )

Fig. 2 Waste paper recv_ c 1~ng model

I.A .A . - T
274 T. Takama t s u e t al .

exte.nal variables
g. (T) (i=1,2)
1
~ZlO=[kl/(l-kl)fl(gl,gZ) g j (t) (j=3,4,S,6)

Z4=(Z3(t)-Z4)/PIZ ~ Y3- Z 3(t)-Z4(t)

~Z3 PZf1(gl,gZ)/lOO YZ=a Z (t)+b Z (t)-z3(t)-yZ


where a Z (t)=k 7 z 31 (t), b Z (t)=k 33 F 1 (z3)'
zZ=aZ(t)+bZ(t)-YZ(t)
and z31=(z3(t)-z31)/P14
+[kl/(l-kl))fl(gl,gZ)~

r l z -a (t)+b (t)-y (t) Yl = a1(t)+b1(t)-zZ(t)-Y 1


1 1 1 1
~ where a,(:)'[p",(g"g,)/100)/(l-k,),
z7=zl(t)f Z (gl, g Z,gS,g6) and b (t)-k Z3 F (zZ)
1 1

~Zg=zl(t)f3(gl,gZ,gS,g6) y4 =a 4 ( t)+b 4 (t)-z6(t)- Y4+(1-k 6 ) ( Y4- b 4(t))


YS=aS(t)+bS(t)-z 7 (t)- YS+(1-k 6 )( Y4 - b4(t))
zS=a 4 (t)+k (b (t)-Y4(t))

~
6 4
where a s (t)=F 1 (z7)' b S (t)=k S3 F 1 (z7)
Z9=z4(t)-zS(t) 1 a 4 (t)=z4(t)f 4 (g3,g4) and b (t)=k F (z6)
4 43 1

z6=a S (t)+b
S
(t)-YS(t)
+(1-k ) ( Y4(t)-b (t))
I
6 4

where fl(gl,gZ)=~P3+P6)gl+(P4+P7)gZ+(PS+Pg))/lZ,
fz(gl, g Z, g S,g6) = [gS(P3g1+P4gZ+PS)+ g 6(P6g1+P7gZ+Pg))/lZf ,
1
f 3 (gl, g Z, g S,g6)=(1-P 11 f 1 )/PIZ'
f4 (g3 ,g4)=P9+ (PI0/100) (g4/gS) /16,
"" i-I
Fl ( Zj ) = i h (S/6) Zj (t-i)/6

Fig. 3 Compu t i n g p r oced ure f o r th e equ3 t ion s of th e mod e l

The va l ues be t wee n Tab l e Es t ima t ed Val u es adjustmen t coe f fi c i e nt of est imated p a pe r
19 79 and 1989 are es - of gl an d g 2 sh i pme nt from t he manufacturer] i s calcu l ated
timat e d by taking into as fol l ows ,
account the ye a r l y gl g2
change in business Ye a r i. e . (k )264 /P4 = 2.87,
7
tr e nds. The va l ues 19 78 10 .81 1.708
after 1990 a r e esti - 19 80 11 .84 1.911 k7 = 1. 00802
mat ed under the as - 19 82 13.03 2.134
sumption tha t the eco - 19 84 14.54 2.40 2 The f o l lowing clssumptions are se t out i n t he
nomic growth rat e is 19 86 15 . 84 2.6 20 simu l ation o f t hree c as es .
constant . 19 88 17.78 3.00 2
1990 19.5 8 3 . 38 6 Ca se I
As fo r the parameters, 1992 21. 38 3 .7 33 (1) Th'2 upper l i Mit o f che r ec0ver,' rat e e f
(1) p and P2 [Sea- 199 4 2 3. 35 4.115 was~e pape r (S)2 i s 50 %,
1
sonal ind i ces of pape r 1996 25.50 4.5 37
p roduction and p a pe r 1998 2 7 . 84 5.00 2 i. e. S::: 50(%).
consumption,respec - 2000 30.41 I 5 . 515
tive ly ] a r e f i xe d as 13 (2) The actual p a pe r e xp, Ht rati o (k ) i s
p = p = 100 . Sea - (10 y en/ yea r) l
kep t at the p re sen t l e vel ,
1
sonal 2
pertur b at ~" on ~ s not tak e n '~nto account.
(2 ) p . (i= 3- l 4) [Reg r ess ion coef fi cients ], i.e . 0 . 0 2 4.
kj (j~2 -S ) [ I nventor y - sa les ratios ], k
[Coeff i cient of inventory adjustmen t a~ th e (3) The actual waste pape r p ric e (g4) changes
recove r y trad e r] are a ss umed to be the same in the fo llowing f o ~~ different wa ys .
as in 19 77 . ---------------- .-----
(3) Since the pape r p r odu c ti on is estimat ed 2 S [r ecove r y r at e of waste p a pe r ] is d8 f i ned
to become 2.87 times the p re sen t d ur ing th e by the ratio of (z4 /zS)X 100 .
22 yea rs fr om 1 978 through to 2000 , k7 [?he
Waste Paper Recycling System in Japan 275
3
Letting the time origin (t =0) be J a nu- is import e d wh e n the i nv e ntor y - s al e s rati o
ary, 1978, (= Y4/z6) b e comes l e ss than 0 .1 5 [month)
(No.l) g4 is constant after 1 9 79.
(NO.2) a = 0
i.e. g4 = 14.13
(No. 7) a = 2. 5
(No.2) g4 becomes 2 times d:.lr ing 20 years.
i.e. (No.8) a = 5. 0
g4 = 14.13 + 0.05887t

(No.3) g4 becomes 2 times during 10 years. ( No . 9 ) a = 7. 5

i.e. In Cas e I, the e ff e ct of th e wa s t e paper p ri c e


g4 = 14.13 + O.ll77t trend on the waste paper supply trend which is
anticipated to incr e as e according to the ra p~
(NO.4) g4 becomes 3 times during 10 years.
dly rising demand for paper under the assump -
tion that the uppe r limit o f th e r e c o very rate
i.e. g4 = 14.13 + 0.2355t is fixed at 50 %, is made cl e ar . In Case n ,
th e effect on t he wast e p a p er supp ly trend of
(4) There is no technological upper limit on
changing the upper limit of th e wast e pap er
the utilization ratio of waste paper .
recovery rate is analys e d. In Cas e nr, wheth e r
The utilization ratio of waste pape r for
or not waste paper import will be e ffective a s
paper Production (g5) increases by 0.008%
a measure for making up for th e shortage of
per a nnum.
the waste pape r supp ly which is antici p at e d to
g = 0.175 + 6.667 x 10-4 t occur in the futur e is e xamine d.
i. e.
5
The utilization ratio of waste paper for
RESULT AND DISCUSSION
board production (g6) increases by 0.0052
per annum.
4- 1 Confipmation of t he model by compa pi s on
i.e. g = 0 .731 + 4.333 x 10-4 t with the pea l data
6
The comparison of the calculated zl [Amount of
Case n
paper production), z6 [Amount of waste pape r
(1) The net paper export ratio (k ):
l purchased by the manufacturer] an d Y5 [Inver:-.
tory of waste p a p er 1n the ma nu facturer) wl t n
kl = 0 . 0 2 4
the actual data is shown in Fig . 4 . From th e se
(2) The actual waste paper price (g4): results of the simulation, it is safe ly con -
g4 becomes 2 times during 20 years.
(3) The waste paper recovery ].6r---------------------------------------------------------~
rate (S) c hang es in th e
following ranges:
(No.2) S ~ 50 (%) (1978-2000) 1.4

(No.5) S ~ 50 (%) (1978 - 1 984) ,


S 5 55 (%) (1985 - 2000) ,

(NO.6) S 5 50(%) (1978 - 1 984) ,


S 5 55 (%) (1985 - 1990) ,

and it increases by 5 % for


1 0 ye ars after 1990. 0.6
Case nr
(1) The net paper eXFo rt ratio
(k ) :
l
kl = 0. 0 ~4 0.2
(2) The actual waste p aper o
p ri ~e (g ): 9 bec omes
4 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978
2 times juring 20 years . Year
(3) The upper limit on ;:he Fig. 4 Comparison of calculated values and real data
'.va st.e pape r r ec cJVe r y
rat e (S) i s kept at 50 %. cluded that the model d e v e lope d her e is con-
i.e. S::: 50 fident.

(4) As for the import policy of waste p aper, 4- 2 The calcu lated values of' trre "XlY'-!.::li:;&es the
the following cases are considered. pea l data of '.Jn i cn ': ~ . , :r ;: _ ;, ;;:~;] ;an-:;
That is, a % of the estimated purchasing
amount of waste paper in the manufacturer An advantage of utilizing this kind of mathe -
matical model i s that it is possibl e to esti-
3 The unit of time t is measured in months mate the variabl.' s th e real data of which are
276 T. Takamatsu e t al.

not available, by using the calculated values following measures are considered in order to
from the model. As an example, the es timated further promote the recovery of waste paper:
values o~ z (Amount of paper discharged from (i) To increase the collection of waste pa-
households]~ z5 (Amount of waste paper col- per by steadily rising the price of
lected by recovery trader], z (Amount of waste paper;
waste paper disposed of as refuse], y (paper (ii) To increase t h 'J recovery rate by consoli-
stock in households] and y (Inventor~ of dating the structure of the waste paper
waste paper at recovery tr~der] are shown in collection system;
Fig.5. z4 and Y3 represent the same tendency (iii) To compensate for the domestic shortage
of h:as te papt..:r by
importing it from
1(10 6 ton abroad.
1.8
In order Lo evaluate
the availabili t"
of such neasures

and to assess the en-


vironmental impacts
which would result
from the execution of
these measures, it is
indispensable to quan-
titatively forecast
the future demand for
the ",ast e paper by
using such a dynamic
model as developed
here and to carefully
examine the forecasted
o results.
tion, the
In this sec-
results of
1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978
the many simulations
Year
used to forecast the
future trend of waste
paper utilization at
the manufacturer are
in thier changes. Since z has the first s>-'o'""n and changes of the amount of waste
order time lag with respeci to z3 (Amount of paper collected, the dome: stic inventory of
paper consumed by households], y shows a waste l:-'a per and the amount of waste paper
larger increasing tendency when ~ompared to disposed of as refuse are estimated assuming
z . (See Eqs. (3) and (8) in Appendix 1] Both that these three measures are implemented in
z4 and y increased yearly up to 1973 along the future.
w~th the 3 rapid incrase of z . After the oil
crisis of 1973, however, th~y once dec r " a sp d In Fig.6 the simulation results of Case I
and then became almost unchanged. At present, where only the price of waste pap er is stead-
they have shown a gradually increasing tend- ily increased by limiting the recovery rate
ency. Until 1975, z_ also shows the same within 50% are shown. From this figure, it
, :0
trend as z4 Slnce the recovery rate of waste is clear what will happe n in tc.e suppl y of
paper remalned almost unchanged, and conse- and the demand for waste l 'd per, and how the
quently z9 increased annually. After 1976, amount of waste i"a per disposed of as refuse
z has been increasing and, therefore, z is will change. This figure s h ows that th e
5
constant or s l'l<:int
. 1 y decreaslng.
' r,o uy"; l ', 9speak- supply of waste i a p e r cannot catch up with
ing, Y4 is almost constant, though it shows its demand, and the time will come sooner or
small monthly perturbations. This tendency later when the d omestic inve ntory of waste
is probably attributed to the fact that re- paper bec o mes zero, no matter how hig h the
covery traders have very limited stock yards. price of waste paper would be increased. The
On the other hand, the total stock of waste ~ ~ ount of waste paper disposed of as refuse
paper at the manufacturer is increasing annu- increases more and more.
ally compensating for the insufficient stock
capability at the recovery traders. Fig.7 show ~ the simulation results of Case TI
where the recovery rate is increased by con-
4-3 FOY'ecastin:; of the futw>e tj't?Y!.d solidating the structure of the collection
system. In this case , it is clarified that
As for the anticipated rapid rise in the de- the shortage in the supply of waste p aper
mand for waste pap er as a raw material accord- would not occur until 200 0, if the upper
ing to the increase in the deman G for paper limit of the recovery rate ~ould q r adua ll v
in the future, an apprehension is ofte n ex- increase up to 60 %. The increase ratio of
pressed as to whether or not it is actually the amount of waste paper disposed of as re-
p~ssible to supply the amount of waste paper fuse is also s mall compared to that Case I.
to meet demand. In such a situation, the
Waste Paper Recycling System 1n Japan 277

Fig.8 sh,..,,'s the


r esults of Case nr
whe r e the was t e x106 ton
p aper is imp o r t ed 2.0
from abroad i n o r-
der to compensate 1.8
f or th e domestic
shortage. As 1.6
shown in th i s fig-
ure, t he import of
1.4
waste pape r can
delay the time
1.2
when the shortage 1.0
of t he supply will
s tart to occu r,
but it r esu lt s i n
large fluctuati ons
in the inventory
of waste p a pe r.
Mo r eove r, th e
amount o f was t e
pape r disposed of
as r e fu se is ve r y o
large as i n Case I, 1978 '80 '85 '90 Year '95 2000
which r es ult s i n
Fig. 6 Forecasting of Y4' z6' and z9 in case I
some env ironmen tal
po llutio n prob l e 'Tls.
From these view-
poin t s it i s not
good to d epen d on
the import of
x10 6 ton
was t e pape r in or - 2.0
der t o p r even t
sho rtage in the 1 .8 z6(No.6)
supp l y of waste
pape r.

Judging from t he
r es ult s mentioned
1.6
1.4
__ ~,
h0 IV\
5

'9(No.5)
)

above , it can be
1.2
easily unde r stood
that the most e f- 1.0
fective and desir - /'<' (No. 5)
able counter-
0.8
measure t o ove r- 0.6
come the antici -
p ated sho rt age of
2xY4 \(NO .2)
\
\\
0.4
was t e pape r s upp l y
i n t he futur e is
t o inc r ease the
0.2 \ \
r ecove r y rat e of 01978 '80
waste pape r up to
'85 '90 '95 2000
Year
60% by consoli- Fig. 7 Forecasting of Y , z6' and z9 in case II
dat i ng t he co ll ec - 4
tion system .

CONCLUSION i n flu encing fa cto rs and adding trrrr to th e


bas i c mode l as in f o rmatio n flows, the who l e
I n this r eport , t he waste p a pe r r ecyc li ng mode l structu r e was g radua ll y devel o, 'ed ,
system is taken up as a concrete example of a and finally obtained as shown in Fig.2. The
resource r ecycling sys t em . A dynamic mode l fundamen tal structure which is obtained by
,vas developed and , based on this mode l, the r ea rranging the model equations according to
q uantitative assessmen t o f several measures t he direction of the information flo ws , is
for p r even ti ng the anticipated sho rta ge o f shov.'J1 in Fig. 3. As is c lear fr Gm t h is fi g -
the supp l y of waste pape r i n the futur e i s ure, the p r ocedur e for the simulation calcu-
per f o rmed , lation p r oceeds from the exogenous variables
r elated to economic factors t o t~8 opposite
The bas ic structure of t he model developed is dir ect ion of the material flo w.
b a sed on th e mate r ia l b alan ce sho~TI in Fig.l.
By taking into account many con trolli ng and The p rameters i nc lud ed in the model ar e
278 T. Takamatsu et al.

es timat ed fr om the
real data , and the
>110 6 ton
conf i dence of th e
mode l is confirmed 2.0
by compa ri ng the
ca l cu l ated values 1.8
fr om the model with
th e r e al dat ~ rang-
1.6
ing o v e r 1 0 ye~r ~ ,
1.4
(Fig . 4 . )
1.2
The mode l is first
____ ' I
utiliz ed for pre - 1.0
dicting th e change
of state variables
th e r ea l data of
which a r e not avail - 0.6
.~ \/\VJ.:iIAtV/~: ,
\'V1\ V
;\\:\ ,1\
, , !'
ii:
r,
\ ' ,
/
\ \ V\ :i V
a b l e. (Fig. 5) Then , , \ \ ,I
it i s used to quan - 0.4 2XY 4 (NO.2\ '-'\ \ ~
titative l y assess
thr ee measures for 0.2 ~No.7l (NO.8~
p r event ing th~ an - i
ti cipated shortage 197~8~1-8~0~~~~'~85~~~'~
\ ~19~0"~~~'~9~5~~~2~000
of t he s upply of Year
waste p a pe r in t he Fig. 8 Forecasting of Y4' z6, and z9 in case III
fu ture .

Fr om the r es ult s of
th e s imulatio n
(Fig. 6-8 ), i t was c larifi ed that the i ncrease APPENDIX 1
i n the r ecovery ra te of Case IT i s the most
desirable among these thr ee meas ur es. MATHEMATI CAL MODEL

Th e sys t em a pp roach based on th e quanti ta ti vc (a) Equations r e late d t o Yi (i=1 -5 )


mode l as shown in t his p aper , cou ld be ve r y
dY (t)
he l pfu l in e valuating and as sess ing many dif - l
- - - = z l (t) - z2 (t) (1)
f e r ent !:,e asur e s intorduced to r eso lve i ssues dt
not only in was te pape r rec yc lin g s ys tems,
d Y2 (t)
b u t also i n many o th er larg e , comp l e x, r e -
- - - = z2 (t) - z3(t) - z l O (t) (2 )
sources recyc li ng systems . dt
dY3( t)
z3(t) - z4 (t) (3)
ACKN ,.lh"LEDGEMENT dt

The authors wi s h to acknowledg e Mr. M. Arakawa dY4 (t)


for hi s va l uab l e assistance. z5 (t) - z6(t) (4)
dt
dY5(t )
~ = z6(t) - z7 (t) (5)
REFERENCES
(b) Equation relat ed t o z. (i=l - l O)
OECD Repo rt (1976) . " Prospects a nd Policies ~

for I,aste Pape r Recyc li ng in th e Pulp and zl (t) P11 z7 (t) + P 12 z 8(t) (6 )
o f Paper Indu st r y ".
Glass e r y , C . R., an~ V. K. Gupta (1 965 ). A li p - z2 (t ) k Z (t) x (t) + zlO(t) (7) 1
7 31 9
ea r programming analysi s of paper recy -
cl ing. Stud i es i n Managemen t Science whe r e Z has the first orde r time lag
and Systems Vo l. 2. No rt h - Hol l and. . h 31
w ~t r espect to z3 '
Chap .1 3 , pp . 273 - 292 .
i. e .
Clif ford , J . S ., M. A. Laughton , T . S . McRobe rt s dZ (t)
31
and P . V. Slee (1 978 ) . LP model li ng i n P14 dt + z31 (t) = z3(t)
the p a pe r i ndustry as an a i d t o r ecyc li ng
dec isions . Con se rvat i on & Recycling , ~ 1 1
9 7-1 09 . z3(t) = 12 x 17 (T)1 00 P2(t) (8 )

Turner , R.K., R. Grace , and D. I' . Pearce (1 978).


The economics of was te : . p er r ecyc li ng . (9 )
Resource Conse r va t ion , Soc ial and Econom-
i c Dimensio ns of Recyc ling, Langama n
Z4(t '{ P9 + P 1 0 X 20 (t) } - k x (t) (10)
Group Limited , London , Chap .16, pp . 296- 6 6
343 .
x (t) - x3 (t) + (1-k )x (t) (11)
16 6 6
(12)
Waste Paper Recyc lin g System ln Japan 279

X13 (t)x (t) (13) 1


lS
x (T) [x (T)gS (t)+x (T)g6 (t) }
21 22
24 (t) - 2 5 (t) (14) 17 (29)
_l_{l - P 11x (t)} (30)
XIS (t) 14
(15 ) P12

(c) Equations related to x.


l
(i= 1 -23) x
16
(t) -6l rl=. -)65 i -I 2 7 (t-i) xl (t) (3 1 )

1,00 5 i-I . x (T) x (T) + x (7) (32)


xl (t) 6Li= 1 (6) 27 (t-l) 17 21 22
k
1
tc27 (t-l) + SX (t-l)}
l
(16) XlS(T) l-~ x 17 (T) (33)
1
1 1
x (t) 16 1 00 g4(t) (34)
19
where k (t) has the first order time lag 1
S3 x (t) ~ x (t) (35)
wlth r espec t to kS(t). 20 19
g3
i. e .
x (t) P3 g 1 (t) + P4 g 2 (t) + Ps (36 )
(17) 2 21
x (t) P6 g1 (t) + P 7 g (t) + PS (37)
YS(t) - x (t) (IS) 22 2
2
x (t) x (t) + xlS(t) (3S)
23 17
lI ~ (~)i-12 (t-i)
6 "-=1 6 6
AFPENDIX 2
l {2 (t-l) + Sx (t -l )} (19)
6 6 4
MEANING OF EACH EQUATION
Xs (t) (2 0 )1
(a) Equation of Yi (i=l-S)
where k (t) has the first order time lag
43
wlth respec t to k (t) Eqs . (1)-(5): The change of inventory with
4
i. e . respect to time is equal to the difference of
both amounts of the input and the outp ut.
(20) 2 For examp l e , the time derivative of y [the
inventory of paper at t he manufacture~ ] is
(21) equal to the difference between 21 [l'.mount of
paper production at the manufacturer ] and 22
1 ,00 5 i -I [Amount of paper shipment from the manufac -
~i=1(6) 23(~ -i )
turer]. Here, y. is an unknown va ri able the
value of which h~s to be calculated from t he
l{2 (t-l) + SX (t -l) } (22) observed or es timat ed values of the mate rial
6 3 7
fl ow 2. (t) (j=l- 7,1 0)
x (t) (23) 1 J
i3
(b) Equation of 2i (i=l-lO)
where k (t) has the first order time lag
with re~~ect to k (t), Eq. (6): 2 [Amount of pape r p roduction a t th e
3
i. e . manufactu~er] is equal to the sum of the two
dk33 values which are calculated by multiplying
T--+k =k (23) 2 each yield factor Pl l and P 12 by 27 [Amount
3 dt 33 3
of waste pape r consumption aE th e manufactur-
x (t) = Y2(t) - x S(t) (24) er] and 2S [Amount of pu l p consumption at the
9
manufacturer] , res pect ively.
1 ,00 5 i-I
x l O (t) = 6 Li= 1 (6) 2 (t - i)
2 Eq. (7): 22 [Amount of pape r shipment from the

i 2 { (t -l ) + Sxl O (t-l) }
2
(25)
manufacturer ] is concurrently equal to the
amount 0 f pape r pu rc hased by the .,; holesa l er.
The wholesaler seems to for ecast his pur -
x (t) (26) 1 chasing amount by analysing t he past trend of
11
the amount of pape r p urchased by cons\.l:" cr.
where k (t) has the first order time lag He re it is assumed that t he es timat ed value
23
with r espect to k (t) . of 2 , 2 , can be obtained from the diffe r . n -
2
i. e .
tia13equ~~ion ~hich has the first order time
dk lag ,:ith res pect to 2 . (The time constant
T ~ + k = k2 (26) 2 p is assumed to be 1
months . ) The es timat-
2 dt 23
e~4value 231 is modi fi ed by multip~in~ b! a
Yl (t) - x (t) (27) f actor k used to compens ~ te for the inade -
11 7
quacy in this es timation. The actua l amount
1 1 of p aper pu rchased by th e wholesaler (2 ) is
100 P I (t)~23(T) - x 12 (t) 2
given by subtructing the variation of Ehe
pape r stock at t l: c wholesdl,T (x ), due to
(2S) 9
280 T. Takamatsu c: ~ a. l .

th e invento r y adjustment , from the modified Eq. (16) - (27): Va riab l es x. (i=1 -3) , x, (j=4 -6 )
estimated value of z3 (k z ) and adding the are relevant to the invenEories of wJste pa -
7 31
amount of net paper e xpo rt (ZlO)' per at the manufacturer and at the recovery
trad e r s , resoectively. x (k=7-9) and x
Eq. (8): The amount of pape r puchased by con - (e=1 0- 1 2) ar~ also r e leva~t to the inve~tories
sumer (z3) is equa l to the value which is of p a pe r at t he wholesale r and manufacturer,
obtained by mul ti pl ~.' i "S t'i'c seasonal ind ex of r espective l y.
pape r consumption (p ) by the average p a pe r
consumption per montfi which is calculated by The average monthly utilization of paper or
d i viding the annual i,ape r d e mand in the do- waste pape r (x., i=1,4,7,lO) is calculated by
mestic ma rk u t(x ) by 12. smoothing the Bast r eco rd in such a way that
17
th e older t he data is , the smaller is the
Eq. (9): The pape r p urchased by t he consumer coeffici e nt weighed ~y us ing an exponential
is d i sposed of with a certain time l ag with type of wighting function.
respect to the purchas ing time. This time
lag is assumed to :,' the first order '-"icos" The standard value of each inventory of paper
tim" c;on,; tilllt to is on c mont!~. or waste paper (X i ' i=L , ~;, 8 , 11) is expressed by
13
th e p r oduc t of tne average utilization of p a-
Eq . (1 0 ): Zs [Amount of waste pa:, e r coll ec ted pe r o r waste paper and the average inventory-
by the recovery trad e r] is a ~s" med to be de- sales ratio of pape r or waste paper (k ,k ,
S 4
termined by adding the term r elevan t to the k3 , k ) .
2
inven tory adjustment to the p roduct of z
[Amount of paper discbarged from househoids] Iffien the average inventory-sales ratio changes,
and (P9+ P 1 0 x 0 ) [Estimated r ecovery rat e] . it s change does not directly cause the varia -
Where est~mated recovery rat e is p resumed to tion of the standard level of the inventory,
be a linea r fun ction of x [Auxiliary varia - but its influenc e has a certain time lag.
ble on t he waste pape r prfge] . The capabili - So , the average inventory-sales ratio in which
ty of the inventory adjustment of the r ecov - the first order time lag is taken into account,
ery trader seems to be insufficient. Th e r e - is used here. The time constant of this time
fo r e , as a coefficient to express its weak - lag is assumed to be 3 months.
ness in adjustment aLility, k [Coefficient
of inven tory adjustment in re80very trader] The variation of each inventory of paper or
is introduced, and this coefficient is multi- was t e p aper (x" i=3,6,9,12) is tae difference
plied to x6 [Variation of the inv0 ntory of between the acEual inventory (Yi' i=S,4,21)
waste paper at the recovery trader]. and i ts standard level.

Eq. (11): z6 [Amount of waste paper purchased Eq . (28): The planned month l y paper p roduction
by the ma: :ufacturer] is determined by sub - (x ) is given by sub tracting the var iation of
13 ,
tracting x [Variation of invento r y of waste t h e lnventory due to t h e lnventory
' a d'Justment
pape r at t~e manufacturer] from x [Estimat - f e om the p roduct of the average planned month -
ea, pue:: h ' 16
as~ng amount of waste pape r by the ly :' a p( r p roduction (x /12) and the seasonal
23
manufacturer] and adding th e supplementary ind e x of paper productlon (Pl)' Eventually,
amount of waste p aper which is kept in stock this value becomes equal to che amount of
to compensate for t he weakness in the inven - paper p roduction at the manufacturer (zl) '
tory adjustment ability of the recovery
trader . Eq~(29) : The utilization ratio of waste paper
for pape r and board (x 4) is obtained by
Eqs . (12) (13): z7 and z [amounts of utiliza - di vidi ng t', e. "urn of t", l' ewo products by th e
tion of waste paper an~ virgin p ulp, re spec - annual demand for all kinds of paper. The
tiv e l y ] is determined by multi p l ying ?3 C!1 uti- first prod uct is obtained by multiplying the
lizatio n ratio (x ) or (x ) ~y x annual demand for pape r by the uti lization
["la"", d mont',l ... ' [:%,0, r i ro~~ction]~3 rati o of waste pape r for paper production (gsL
and the second is the annual de:-:,a nd for board
Eq . (14): Zg [Amount of ',vaste p ape r disposed multiplied by the uti li zation ratio of waste
of as r e fus e] is the amount of uncollected pape r for board p roduction (g6) '
... r l~'7lo~n L 0 f i. a: ,-: r -ii sc:::a r q.:c :: r ,; ;n !lOUS'~' -
h~ldl . Eq . (3 0 ): The utilization ratio of virg i n pulp
for p a p er and board (x 5) is obtained from
Eq. (1 5) : Since z [:'lonthly n e t p aper expor t] Eqs. (6), (12), (13) and ehe condition that
, 10
~s v e r y small compared to the pape r produc- zl=x 13
tion, zlO is assumed to be constant t hought -
out a yea r and to be (1/12) xx [~!::. ual p a- Eq . (31): Estimated amount of p urchased waste
18 paper by the manufacturer (x ) is obtained by
per expo rt]. lp
soomthing the pas t value of cne amount of
(c) Equations of Xi (i =1 - 23) co: ~ sum p tion of waste pape r z7 (t - i) with an
exponential type we ighting factor. Conse -
Equations relevant to (x ,x ,x ), (x ,x ,x ), quently, this value is equal to the average
(x7 , x8'x~) and (XI O,Xll,k1 2) ail hav~ t~e
2 6 value of t ",-- waste pape r consumption at the
same matnemat~cal st ructur e , and they are manufacturer (x l)'
utilized to calculate the va riations of the
inventories . El{ . (32) : .7,nt,ual domestic consumption of paper
and board (x ) is the sum of the annual
17
Waste Paper Recycling System In Japan 281

domestic consump tion of pape r (x ) and board


2l
(x ) . [a] ~he seasonal index of pape r production
22
(P l) and the
Eq. (33): Annual paper export (x lis the net s easonal index Table B Values of PI and P
balance defined by the differen~~ be tween the of pape r con-
2
amount of export and that of import. This (1976-1977)
sumption (P2)
value i s calculated from Eq. (3S) by using the are given by 1Month PI P2
net paper export ratio kl (=x /x ). the monthly
lS 23 1 90.8 90.5
values. The
Eq. (34): The price index of was te paper (x ) 2 92.2 94.5
19 values of P l
is the ratio of t h0 waste paper p rice trena 3 100.8 105.4
and p from
(g ) with respect to th e p ric e in 1 970.
av~rage price of waste pape r is ~16)
(The 196 5 to 1 973
4
5
99.9
100.8
99.1
101.0
are constant.
6 101.5 101.0
Taking into
Eq. (35): An auxil iary variable of the pr i c:e of 7 102.0 99.8
consideration
waste pape r (x ) is defined by a ratio of the 8 100.4 98.2
20 the influence
price index of wast e paper (x 9) and the whole- 9 103.3 104.4
of the oil
I
10 . 104.8 102.3
sale p ric e index trend (g ). lThis variable
3
means the actual trend of the price index of
paper.
crisis in 1 97~,
different
values are
LlL :102.2
12 : 101.4
103.5
100.2
used, for 19 74 and 1 975. After1975, the con-
Eqs. (36) (37): Domestic demands of pape r and stant values are us ed again, as shown in
boa rd are both approximated by a linear func- Table B.
tion of the actual gross national expend iture
(g ) and the actual priva te plan t and equip- [bl p. (i=3-S) are regression coefficients.
me~t inves tment (g2)' The r ~g ress ~on analysis is perfo rmed in order
to correlate g and g with th~ real data of
Eq. (3S): The p lann ed annual pape r p roduction the domestic c5nsumptfons of paper and board.
(x ) is the sum of the annual paper demand By using the r eg ression coefficient obtained,
23
(x ) and the annual paper export (x )' annual demands for pape r and for board are
17 lS
e stimated. The regression coefficients are
obtained as follows;
APPEND IX 3 P3=566,OS, P4 =1415,2, P5=575.S5, RL=~.9922

3-1 Exogenous variables P6 = 253,76, P7=2469.2S, PS=409.92, R =0.9S16


Based on these values, x. (i=17,lS,21,23) are
Exogenous variables Table A Given Data es timated as shown in TaBle C.
are set up as given
conditions. The Year
actual gross na- Table C Comparison of the Estimated
tional expenditure 1968 5.749 1.0218 , Values and the Real Data
trend (g ) and the 1969 6.365 1.2378 :
actual p~ivate 1970 7.061 1.4195
Year
Estimated
x
Real data of!,
x
plant and equip- 1971 7.583 1. 4835 . 17 17
ment investment 1972 8.274 1.5670 j
9.087 1.8566 , 1968 9668 9957
tr end (g2) are 1973
1969 11012 11310
given by the value 1974 8.973 1.6545 '
1970 12289 12973
1975 9.197 1.4399
per annum, and 1971 12965 12907
th eir values are 1976 9.740 1.4893 :
1972 13856 13638
1977 10.248 , 1.52941
given in Table A. 1973 15648 15975
Here "actual" means (1013 yen/year) 1974 14769 15646
that the pr ic e in- 1975 14119 13600
crease from 197 0 has been taken into account 1976 14756 15394
in the values. 1977 15328 15702
3
The whol f'! sale p ri ce index trend (g3) and the (10 ton)
waste paper price index (g4) are g~ven as [cl P9 ' 9 : The coefficient in relation to
monthly values. The price of corrugated card t~e 1
es timaged recovery rate (SI) and the aux-
board, which is the most utilized amon g all iliary variable on the p rice of waste paper
of the kinds of waste pape r, is taken as a (x ) given by
r epresentat ive value of the waste pape r p ric e . 20
The utilization ratio of waste paper for p a pe r SI (t) = P9 + PIOx 20
and board (x ) calcu lated from the utiliza- are obtained by the regress ion analysis o f
4
tion rati o or waste paper for p a per (g5) and t he annual real data. The relationship be-
t he one for board (g ), is gradually increas- tween the price of waste : ~ aper and the esti-
ing up to 36-42% ove~ a pe riod of 10 yea rs, mated recovery rate is very complex due to the
for the j?c riod of which the simulation calcula- influences of the o i l crisis of 1974 , the
tion in perfo r med. active c~mpaign for energy and resourc e saving
since t hen , and the movement to collect waste
3-2 Para'!1etel's pape r previously brought from many places to
one central p lace as opposed to house by house
282 T. Takamatsu et a l .

collection. The r eg r ess i on ca l c ulation was NOMENCLATURE


ther e for e pe rfo~ med inde;,e nden tl y in th e
foll ow ing t wo pe riods. A\VPCM Average Va lu e o f Waste Paper Con -
(i) Jan.1968-Dec.1974 sump tion at the manufacturer
(ii) Jan . 1 975 -Dec .1 977 S~'I?IM Standard Leve l of Waste Paper In-
ventory at the Manufact-,urcr
[d] P ll' P 1 2: The amount of consumption o f VIWPM Variati on of I nven tory of Waste
waste p aper and p ulp is r epr ese nted by a li n - pape r at t he Manufacturer
ea r function of the amount o f p roduction AWPPM Average Value of Ivaste Paper pur-
of p aper and board . ~he yie ld rat e i s calcu- chased at the Manufacturer
l at ed from the real data ranging over 1 0 SWPIR Standard Leve l of Waste Paper
yea rs . The ave rag e valu es o f p and p a r e Invento r y
obtained as foll ows , 11 12 VIWPR Va riation of I nven tor y of Waste
Paper at t he Recove r y Trader
0 . 9029, P12 = 0 . 9792 APSW Average Va lue of Paper Shipment
fro m the Wholesaler
[e ] P13' P14: The time cons tants of P13 and SPIW Standa rd Leve l o f Paper Inventory
are flxed as at the Who l es al e r
P 14
VIPW Variation of Inven tory of Paper at
P 13 = 1, P 14 = 2
t he Wholesaler
When P 13=P 14' z3 (t)=z (t) i s obtained from x APSM Average Va lue of Paper Shipment
the compar l son o r EQs.i7)2 and (9 ). lO
from th e Manufacturer
x SPIM Standard Leve l of Paper Inventory
[f] T . (i=5,4 , 3,2): Tb" variables are all 11
at the Manufacturer
time ~onstants. They are set as x VIPM Variation of Inven tory of Paper at
12
T = T. = 3 t he Manufacturer
l
Planned Month l y Pape r Production
[g] k : By taking the ave rage o f t he p ast 1 0 at the Manufac tur e r
l x URWPPB Utilization Rat i o of Ivaste Paper
ye ars, kl is obtained as 14
for Pape r and Board Production
kl 0 . 024 x UR\'PP Ut ilizati on Ratio of Vi r g in Pulp
15
for Paper and Board Production
[h] k . (i=2,3,4,5): By taking into account x EPWPM Estimated Purchas i ng Amount of
the oI l crisis i n 1 97 4, each i nven tory-sal es 16
Waste Paper at the Man ufacture r
ratio i s obtained as the follo wing t wo dif - x APDD Annual Paper Demand in the Domestic
f e r e nt va l ues before Feb . 1 9 74 and after 17
Market
March 1974 by calculating t he average va l u es APE Annual Paper Ex po rt
i n each period. PIWP Pric e Ind ex of Waste Paper
pe riod AVl;-IPP Auxiliary variab l e on Waste Pape r
k2 k3 k4 k5
Price
~an.1 968 -Fab.1 9 74 k . 0 . 47 0 . 34 0 .25 0 . 67 x ADCP Annual Do mes ti c Consumption o f
lO 21
~ar.1 97 4-Dec .1 9 77 kif 0 . 8 0 . 44 0 . 3 0 . 98 Paper
x ADCB Annual Domestic Consumpt i o n of
22
The actual inventory - sales ratio (k. ) is Board
p r esumed to have t he first o rde r tiffi~ lag x
23
PAP PM Planned Annua l Paper Production at
wi th r espec t to the step change of k . . the i1anu fa ctur e r
l

i. e . k k. + (k - k. )(l-exp( -~) } IPM Inventory of Pape r at t he


i3 lO If l O T. ~anufacturer
l
where t is 1 for Mar. 1974. IPW Inven t o r y o f Paper at the
Wholesalers
[i] k : This i s the c o e ffi cient o f invrntory PSH Pape r Stock in Househo ld s
adjus~ment in t he r ecove r y trader. k =1 IWPR I nven t o r y of \"as t e Pap er at the
means t ha t t he inventory adjustment i~ pe r - Recove r y Trader
f ormed comp l ete l y. I n the s i mu lati on , it is I WP:-1 I nvento r y of Waste Pape r at t he
assumed t ha t k =0 . 7 . Manu fa ctu r e r
6
[j] k7: During t he 1 0 y e ars fr om 1 968 to 1 977, PPM Amount of Pape r Pr oduct ion 'a t t he
th e pape r p roduction i nc r ease d about 1.6 Manufactu r e r
times. By taking into a::count the time con- PSM Amount of Paper Shipmen t from t he
stant of th e delay (p ) , k is obtained from :-lanufa c tur er
th e relations h i p (k7)li20/P~4=1.6 as follows, PCH Amount of Pape r Cons umed by House -
ho ld s
k7 = 1.11786 PDH Amount of Paper Di scha r ged from
whe r e P 14=2 . Ho us eho l ds
WPCRI Amoun t of Waste Pape r Co llected by
Recovery Traders
\VPP~l Amount of \vaste Pa p er Purc h ased by
Manufact ur e r
WPGl Amount of Was t e Paper Consump tion
at t he M~nufactu r e r
Waste Paper Recycling System in Japan 283

z VPCM Amount of Virgin Pulp Consumpt ion


8
at the Manufacturer
z9 WPDR Amount of Waste Paper Disposed of
as Refuse
zlO NPE Amount of Net Paper Export

gl AGNE Actual Gross Nat ional Expenditure


g2 APEI Actual Private Plant and Equivment
Inves tment
g3 WPI Hholesal p. Price Ind ex
g4 AWPP Actual Haste Paper Price
gs URWPP Utilization Ratio of Haste Paper
for Paper Production
g6 URI-lPB Utilization Ratio of Waste Paper
for Board Production

k NPER Net Paper Export Ratio


kl I SRPM Invento ry-sal es Ratio of Paper at
2
t he Manu factur e r
k3 ISRPH Inven tor y - sales Ratio of Paper at
the Wholesaler
k ISRWPR Inv ento ry-sales Ratio of Waste
4
Paper at the Recovery Trad e r
ks I SRWPM Inventory-sales Ratio of vJaste
Paper at th e Manufacturer
k6 CIAR Coefficient of Inventory Adjust-
ment at the Recovery Traders
k ACPSM Adjustment Coef fici ent of Paper
7
Shipment from the Manufacturer

Pl SIPP Seasonal Ind ex of Paper Production


P2 S IPC Seasonal Ind ex of Paper Consumption
p . (i=3 - 10) Regression Coe ff icients
l
Pll YFWP Yielc Factor of Waste Paper
p YFUP yield Factor of Virgin Pulp
plij=13,14) Time Constants
J
S RR Recovery Rate

T . (i= 2-S) Time Constants


l

t month
'r year

You might also like