probability and statistics:

chapter 6

1
The extent to which an
event is likely to occur.

2
 CLASSICAL
PROBABILITY

The probability of an event E is equal to the number of outcomes occuring in

event E divided by the total number of outcomes for the experiment.
ILLUSTRATIONS
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5 5
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6
 3

The probability of getting an

ace, 5 of hearts or 3 of
spades from a deck of cards.

P(E3) = 3/26

7
4

8
 5

The probability of getting a

non defective bulb from 200
bulbs already examined ,
where 12 are found to be
defective.
P(E5) = 47/50

9
 NOTE!

The probability The probability The probability The sum of the

of a sample of a null set is of an event E probabilities of
space is 1. zero. always lie in the all events (or
range between final outcomes)
zero to 1. for an
experiment is
always 1.

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EXAMPLES
1

12
2

a
b

13
3

14
4

a
b

15
5

a
b
C

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6

a
b
C

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7

a
b
C

18
8

a
b
c
d
19
9

a
b
c
d
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 APPROACHES TO
CLASSICAL
PROBABILITY

The probability of a single event The probability

Written that an event will
as P(A/B)
without consideration of any other occur given
Read as thethat anotherofevent
probability has
A given
event. This is also known as SIMPLE that Balready occurred.
has already occurred.
PROBABILITY. Written as P(A/B)
P(A/B) = P(AB)
Read as the probability of A given
that B has alreadyP(B)
occurred.
 EVENTS ON
PROBABILITY

Events that cannot occur together are mutually exclusive events.

Such events do not have any common outcomes. If two or more are
mutually exclusive, then at most one of them will occur every time
we repeat the experiment. Thus, the occurrence of one event
excludes the occurrence of the other event or events.
 EVENTS ON
PROBABILITY

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one

does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. In
opposite, dependent events are those whose probabilities affect
each other.
 EVENTS ON
PROBABILITY

Because two complementary events, taken together, include all the

outcomes for an experiment and because the sum of the
probabilities of all outcomes is 1, it is obvious that P(A) + P(A) = 1.
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26
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 PROBABILITY
RULES

The probability that events A and B can happen together is called

the joint probability of A and B and is written as P(AandB).
The probability of the intersection of two event is called their joint
probability and is written as P(AandB).
MULTIPLICATION RULE: The probability of the intersection of two
events is obtained by multiplying the marginal probability of one
event by the conditional probability of the second event.
 PROBABILITY
RULES

For dependent events:

P(AB) = P(AandB) =P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A)
P(AB) = P(AandB) =P(AB) = P(B) P(A/B)
For independent events:
P(AB) = P(AandB) =P(AB) = P(A) P(B)
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33
2

a
b
c
d
34
3

a
b
c
d
35
 PROBABILITY
RULES

The method used to calculate the probability of the union of events is

called the ADDITION RULE.
ADDITION RULE: The probability of the union of two events A and B is
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
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a
b
c

37
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38
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39
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40
4

a
b
c
d
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