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马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 9 月 1 日
市场技术解读
市场波动可能会在近期提高…
图 1∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 2∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(单日线图)
单日线图)
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 可是,当日本银行宣布较预期更温和的措施来刺激经济和克制日元的凌厉涨势后,市场便开始在强大的套利压力下收窄涨
势。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 随着公牛继续往上前冲,富时综指一再在周一扩大上涨势头。
♦ 技术而言,第 3 根利多阳烛的形成和短期动力指标所发出的“双买”讯号都建议今日的购兴有望延伸。
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露(
读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
Page 1 of 6
2010 年 9 月 1 日
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 在重要重量级股的买盘动力延续下,富时综指周一进一步猛涨,并刷下超过 30 个月来的新高。
♦ 不过,由于重量级股的买盘如今几乎已过度伸张,因此投资者可预期近期的波动将转高。
♦ 此外,鉴于交投量近来不断趋低,而大盘涨跌家数比率也持续下跌,所以如果投资者决定对核心蓝筹股进行套利的话,那么
市场可能会步入套利跌势。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶
∶主要海外指数及原产品
8月 8月 8月 8月 8月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 24 日 25 日 26 日 27 日 30 日 本地主要指数 (点) (%))
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,422.49 11.44 0.8
206 186 353 286 334
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 9,279.63 72.70 0.8
585 585 333 405 377
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,694.55 -25.59 -0.7
241 268 294 285 281
无交易 各大海外指数
335 328 385 389 372
道琼斯工商指数 10,014.72 4.99 0.0
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,114.03 -5.94 -0.3
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,049.33 0.41 0.0
(百万股) 894 873 685 762 769
伦敦金融时报指数 5,225.22 23.66 0.5
总成交值 恒生指数 20,536.49 -200.73 -1.0
(百万令吉) 1,651 1,732 1,292 1,532 1,760 雅加达综合指数 3,081.88 -17.69 -0.6
东京日经 225 指数 8,824.06 -325.20 -3.6
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,742.75 -17.38 -1.0
令吉兑美元 3.1435 3.1393 3.1410 3.1420 3.1380 上海综合指数 2,638.80 -13.86 -0.5
曼谷综合指数 913.19 3.54 0.4
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 新加坡海峡时报指数 2,950.33 -6.73 -0.2
台湾加权指数 7,616.28 -124.92 -1.6
印度 Sensex 指数 17,971.12 -60.99 -0.3
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 71.92 -2.78 -3.7
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,570.00 28.00 1.1
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 8 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
10 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 9 月 21 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 9 月 1 日
图 3∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 4∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(单日线图
)(单日线图)
单日线图)
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ FKLI 的 8 月份期约再起 10.00 点或 0.71% 至 1,424.00 点,至于 9 月份期约更猛涨 14.00 点或 0.99% 至 1,426.50
点。
♦ 技术而言,从它形成另一根利多阳烛,而短期指标呈多头讯号看来,图表显示市场有望在来日走高。
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 到目前为止,所有技术指标显示市场将会进一步急升至 1,450 点。
表 3∶∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI))收盘
月份)
月份
FKLI (月份 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 8 月 1415.50 1425.00 1415.50 1424.00 10.00 1424.50 4824 7557
10 年 9 月 1415.00 1428.00 1415.00 1426.50 14.00 1426.50 6242 15354
10 年 12 月 1415.00 1427.00 1415.00 1425.50 15.50 1425.50 275 423
11 年 3 月 1420.00 1425.00 1420.00 1424.00 14.50 1424.00 50 177
Page 3 of 6
2010 年 9 月 1 日
图 5∶
∶美国道琼斯工商指数(
美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图 图 6∶
∶美国纳斯达克指数(
美国纳斯达克指数( Nasdaq)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图
美国股市的交投指引∶
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 在联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)会议纪录出炉后,华尔街股市便在激烈的交投下收窄涨势,并在收盘时起落参半。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 在图表上,它形成一根潜在的“类似十字星线”(doji star-like),显示市场可能会反弹。
Page 4 of 6
2010 年 9 月 1 日
每日技术焦点∶
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶
∶合顺(
合顺( UMW)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 8∶
∶合顺(
合顺(单日线图)
单日线图)
♦ 虽然这道水平料将会形成强大卖压,但是一旦它成功取下该道关卡,该股将会形成一个新的图表突破走势。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 10 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM6.466
♦ 40 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM6.343
Page 5 of 6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
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