Climate Change and Flooding: Fate of Riverine Communities

in the Niger Delta

by

Nenibarini ZABBEY1
Head, Conservation Programme
Centre for Environment, Human Rights and Development (CEHRD), Eleme

INTRODUCTION

“Climate Change is a bigger threat than global terrorism”

David King
(UK Government Chief Scientific Officer)

The World Environment Day was created by the United Nations

General Assembly in 1972 as the principal vehicle for stimulating
world-wide awareness about the environment to enhance political
attention and action.The 5th of June every year is set aside as World
Environment Day. This year (2007), the day is being
commemorated with the theme” climate change”. The global
conference will be hosted at the polar city of Tromse in Norway, in
view of the hot topic of melting ice.

Piles upon piles of scientific evidences point to the fact that world
climate is changing due to human activities; temperature, oceanic
heat and sea level are increasing gradually due to excessive
accumulation of green house gases in the atmosphere.

Some parts of the Niger Delta are usually subjected to seasonal

flooding when rivers overflow their banks. Given the scientific
prediction of sea level rise that would be occasioned by climate
change, it means that, the lowlands of the Niger Delta shall be
exposed to higher risks with increasing change in climate. This
Paper delivered at an interactive roundtable organised by Stakeholder Democracy
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Network (SDN) in commemoration of World Environment Day, SDN Conference Room,

Port Harcourt, Nigeria, 5th June, 2007.
paper discusses the relationship between climate change and
riverine/coastal flooding. It also gives background information and
situates the vulnerable nature of the Niger Delta within the context
of global atmospheric warming.

CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

Climate refers to the long time (about 35 years) average weather
conditions of a region including typical weather patterns, the
frequency and intensity of storms, cold spells and hot weather.
Weather itself is the daily fluctuating state of the atmosphere
around us, characterized by the temperature, wind, precipitation
(rainfall), clouds and other weather elements. In the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) usage, climate
change means any change in climate overtime, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of intense human activities in the
environment. In 1988, the United Nations Environment Programme
(UNEP) and the World Metereological Organization (WMO) in
Villach created the IPCC to bring together leading scientists and
other experts involved in the study of climate change, its effect and
the necessary responses. The panel (IPCC) has done an assessment
of climate for the past 1,000 years in relation to the present and
provides estimates of its projected future evolution and their
uncertainties.

In February 2007, IPCC released a report of the work of 2,500

scientists from more than 130 countries and stated that human
activity very likely has been the primary cause of global warming
since 1950.

WHAT ARE THE CONCERNS?

The IPCC Goup 1 issued the third assessment report on the
scientific basis of climate change in 2001. The report as
summarized for policymakers and approved by IPCC member
governments in Shangai raised thought-provoking concerns.

a. The global average surface temperature has increased over

the 20th century by about 0.6oC. Most of the warming

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 occurred in the 20th century, during two periods, 1910 to
1945 and 1976 to 2000.
b. Satellite data showed that there are very likely to have been
decreases of about 10% in the extent of snow cover since
the late 1960s, and ground-based observations showed that
there is very likely to have been a reduction of about two
weeks in the annual duration of lake and river ice cover in
the mid and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.
c. There has been a wide spread retreat of mountain glaciers
in non-polar regions during the 20th century.
d. Global average sea level has risen and ocean heat content
has increased,
i. Tide gauge data showed that global average sea level rose
between 0.1 and 0.2 metres during the 20th century.
ii. Global ocean heat content has increased since the late
1950s.
e. Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent has
decreased by about 10 to 15% since the 1950s.

GREENHOUSE GASES AND GLOBAL WARMING

The planet (earth) is surrounded by an atmosphere containing gases
that regulate temperature. Greenhouse gases are those gases that are
able to absorb and radiate heat. Many greenhouse gases occur
naturally such as water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), Ozone (O3) and nitrous oxide. Others such as
hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs) result
exclusively from human industrial processes.

Greenhouse effect occur when CO2 and other greenhouse gases that
are, relatively, transparent to incoming short-wave solar radiation
absorb and emit the long-wave radiations from the earth’s surface
and reflect downwards some of these re-emitted radiation towards
the lower atmosphere (Horsfall and Spiff, 2001). It is called green-
house effect because the glass in a green-house acts in a heat
retentive way (NSCA, 1989). The warming of the earth due to the
above phenomenon is called global atmospheric warming or simply
global warming.

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SOURCES OF EXCESS GREENHOUSE GASES
Extra greenhouse gases – above natural rates – originate from
human activities. The main sources include exhaust pipes of cars,
gas flaring from the oil and gas sector, using electricity from coal
fired power plants or the heating of our houses with oil or natural
gas. Deforestation is also a major contributor to greenhouse gases
accumulation. Fewer trees means less CO2 uptake for organic
energy and oxygen production. Prior to the beginning of the
industrial revolution, the estimated level of CO2 in the atmosphere
was about 280 ppm by volume. Current levels are about 370 ppm
by volume (About com. Environmental Issues).

NIGERIA AND GLOBAL WARMING

Like many other social problems, climate change is closely
associated with the burning of oil, coal or gas (Lohmann, 2006).
Burning of fossil energy results in the build-up of CO2 and other
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Ninety per cent of carbon
build-up has come from the North (industrialized countries). Total
greenhouse emissions from the South are about one-half those of
the North though they are growing rapidly (Nilsson and Pitt, 1994).

Nigeria contributes significantly to global warming through the

flaring of Associated Gas (AG) as shown in Table 1. On the
average about 1000 standard cubic feet (scf) of gas is produced in
Nigeria with every barrel of oil. Therefore, with the oil production
of some 2.2 million barrels per day, about 2.2 billion scf of AG is
produced and flared everyday (Basil, 2001). This estimate places
Nigeria as the leading gas flarer in the world.

Environmental Rights Action (ERA) and the climate Justice

Programme (CJP) (2005) systematically analyzed gas flaring in
Nigeria. According to ERA and CJP, with crude oil production
having risen to 2.5 million barrels per day in 2004, and the
projected increase to 4 million barrels per day by 2010, it is difficult
to see how most of the resulting increased amounts of AG will not
be flared.

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Table 1: “Best estimates” of gas flaring trends in selected countries
(2000).

Country Flared gas Share of world Ratio gas flared to oil

total (%) Produced (M3/toe)
1990 2000
Algeria 6.8 6 79 101
Angola 4.3 4 n/a 118
China 3.2 3 37 74
Egypt 0.9 1 66 23
Indonesia 4.5 4 70 66
Iran 10.5 10 250 56
Nigeria 17.2 16 n/a 166
Mexico 5.6 5 18 33
North Sea 2.7 3 n/a 9
Russia 11.5 11 n/a 77
Venezuela 4.5 4 30 27
United States 2.8 3 10 22
Other countries 107.5 100 - -
(Source: Cedigaz, USEIA, OPEC, IEA, World Bank, HIS Energy
group),

It is also safe here to infer that Nigeria would remain the leading
gas flaring nation as long as the AG gambling continues and the
federal government remains passive in ensuring strict compliance to
end gas flaring. Gas flaring in Nigeria had been prohibited since
1984, and flaring attracts monetary penalties. Yet, the oil
corporations prefer to flare AG because it seems cost effective.
Consequently, sequential terminal deadlines fixed by government to
end gas flaring have been repeatedly violated (Zabbey, 2006a). In
its 2003 report, Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC)
admitted that the 2008 deadline was “becoming tight” and would be
reviewing in 2004 the resources needed to meet it (SPDC, 2003). It
finally degenerated to an absolute “2008 – not - feasible”
pronouncement by SPDC in 2006.

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EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
In examining climate change in the context of our discussion,
implications for the Niger Delta riverine/coastal communities, what
comes first to mind is the predicted rise in sea level. Rivers will
flood their banks and erode the land, causing salt water to flood
coastal lands making such lands unusable for agriculture.

Hydrological systems would be disrupted as rainfall patterns

change. While Asia, Europe and South America experience new
spells of heavy showers and storms in 2002, the United States
experienced severe drought (Awake, 2003). Parts of northern Africa
have been experiencing devastating drought since the 1960’s.
According to an editorial in the journal Science “sea levels have
risen 10 to 20 centimeters (four to eight inches) in the past century,
and more is in store for us (Awake, 2005). Researchers point to two
possible mechanisms; one is the prospect of the melting of land-
based polar ice and glaciers, which would add to the volume of the
oceans. The other factor is thermal expansion – as oceans become
warmer, their volume increases. The tiny pacific Islands of Tuvalu
may already be experiencing the effects of rising sea levels.

Smithsonian magazine notes that data collected on the atoll of

Funafuti showed that the sea level there had risen an average of 5.6
mm annually over the last decade (Awake, 2005). Unfortunately, no
such tidal monitoring is going on in the Niger Delta.

 Since a layer of ice and snow reflects sunlight, the melting of ice
and snow will cause more sunlight to be absorbed, compounding
the green house effect.
 In the tropics, more water will be lost by evapo-transpiration.
This will increase total cloud cover and rainfall.
 Climatic zones may shift such that the southern parts of the
temperate region will experience less snow, and hotter and drier
summers.

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 Desertification would occur in some areas.
 Some plants may become extinct while others become more
abundant.
 Elevated CO2 will induce increased branching, reduced flowering
period, decline in seed production and reduced stored contents in
seeds.
 There will be expansion of the incidence and distribution of
serious medical disorders.
 Mosquito-borne disorders are projected to become more
prevalent, since mosquitoes proliferate faster and bite more as the
air becomes warmer.

FLOOD AND FLOODING

Flood simply means a large amount of water covering an area that
is usually dry. Glossary of coastal terminology (NOAA, 1998)
defines flood as a flow above the carrying capacity of a channel.
Welcomme (1985) succinctly described the process of flooding.
“As flow increases a point is reached where the channel is no longer
able to drain the volume of water passing down the river. Further
rises in discharge above this point (bankfull level) results in
overspill onto floodplains. Here because of the flatness of the
terrain, increases in volume are achieved by lateral expansion rather
than by increase in depth, and the water spreads slowly and
diffusely outwards, hampered in its progress by the floodplain
vegetation”.

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CAUSES OF NATURAL FLOODING
(1) Overspill from the river channel.
(2) Local rainfall and run off, and
(3) Tides.

TYPES OF FLOOD
Based on the area affected, three types of flood are recognized;
(i) Riverine flooding – is a function of precipitation and water
runoff volumes within the watershed of the stream or river.
(ii) Coastal flooding – This is typically a result of storm surge,
wind-drive waves, and heavy rainfall. Storm surges may
overrun barrier islands and push seawater up coastal rivers
and inlets, blocking the downstream flow of inland runoff.
(iii) Urban flooding – It occurs where there has been development
within stream floodplains. Last year (2006), Port Harcourt
experienced an unprecedented flooding that submerged
houses, paralyzed economic activities and rendered some
residents of the Mgbuoba, Diobu and Nkpolu areas internally
displaced. Causes of the flooding and its socio-economic
implications for Port Harcourt have been treated earlier
(Zabbey, 2006b).

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NIGER DELTA AND THE IMPENDING CLIMATE
CHANGE ASSOCIATED FLOODING.
Having reviewed the global posture of climate change and its
predictable consequences, it is now safe to examine specifically
how vulnerable the Niger Delta is, with regard to riverine flooding.
According to Oku (2003), morphometric parameters, soil type,
vegetal depletion and climatic factors like rainfall are some of the
properties that render the Niger Delta prone to flooding. Annual
rainfall in the Niger Delta varied between 2,000-3,000 mm (Yakubu
et. al, 1998). The delta has such high rainfall levels because it is so
near to the Atlantic, the source of the moisture. High equatorial
temperatures cause water to evaporate from the ocean surface and
rise, to be carried Northwest by the Southeast trade winds.
Funneled up the Bight of Biafra, when these winds hit the
Adamawa massif and rise upwards, the cooled water vapour
condenses and falls as rain on the Niger Delta and on the Cross and
Sanga river basins making the area one of the wettest on earth
(Ashton – Jones, 1998).

Structurally, the Niger Delta is characterized by lowlands. Except

in the Northeast, where it rises to 10-15 m, most of the delta is less
than 6 m above sea level (Ashton-Jones, 1998). Therefore, the
Niger Delta is potentially vulnerable to any rise in sea level. This
submission is strengthened by two major factors: the region’s
lowlands, and the fact that the delta is literally dissected by

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estuaries, rivers, creeks, creeklets and streams. The myriad of
inland surface waters and the boundary coastal shelf means multiple
flooding sources to the surrounding low-level flatlands.

Alluvial soil of the extensive floodplains and beyond shall be

inundated with ease. Alluvial soils are rich in nutrients and support
food production. Consequently, in the wake of climate change
induced flooding; food security in the delta will be impaired
greatly. Increased water depth would render impotent many of the
low-tech, shallow adaptive fishing gears employed by artisanal
fisherfolks.

The risk of the Niger Delta to increasing sea level is further

enhanced by the possibility of subsidence. This is the motion of a
surface (usually earth surface) as it shifts downwards relative to a
datum such as sea level. Continual extraction of underground fluids
(oil, water), load of constructions, natural consolidation of alluvium
soil (Abidin, 2005), are some factors that may cause subsidence in
the Niger Delta. The region lacks requisite manpower and
infrastructure wherewithal needed for the building of shoreline
groin to effectively counter surging waters.

THE SOLUTION
Climate change is created by human activities and could be halted.
Being a global problem, it requires the concerted efforts of all and

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 sundry in cutting down on greenhouse gas emissions. In 1992, the
Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro was convened, which midwives the
Framework Convention (FC). The FC is an environmental treaty
signed by leaders from 155 (now 166), countries at the earth
summit (Nilsson and Pitt, 1994). Ten years later, in Johannesburg,
South Africa, the world summit on Sustainable Development was
held. Such conferences have done much to bring about a general
consensus among scientists and policymakers with regard to climate
change. Has there been any reduction in greenhouse gas
emission? Absolutely No.

Those seeking for equity, they say, must come with clean hands.
As a people most at risk, and ironically the leading regional gas
flarer in the world, the Niger Delta must act fast to complement
other genuine efforts to stem the tide of our changing climate.
Rural communities in the delta should, as a matter of urgency, join
hands with concerned Civil Society Organizations to persuade
government to stop oil companies from flaring associated gas in the
region.

REFERENCES

(1) Abidin, H. (2005). Suitability of leveling, GPS and INSAR

for monitoring land subsidence in urban area of Indonesia. Global
Magazine for Geomatics 19 (7):12-15.

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(2) Ashton-Jones, N. (1998). The human ecosystems of the Niger
Delta-ERA handbook. Kraft books limited, Ibadan.

(3) Awake (2003). What’s happening to THE WEATHER?

Awake! August 8, 2003. 1- 9.

(4) Awake (2005). Natural disasters – are they getting worse?

Awake! July 22, 2005.

(5) Basil, O. (2001). Shell Nigeria Corporate Strategy for gas

flaring. Paper presented at a seminar in Norway, June 18-19, 2001.
Available here
htttp://wwwstatic.Shell.com/static/Nigeria/downloads/pdfs/corpstratend
fare.

(6) Environmental Rights Action (ERA) and the Climate Justice

Programme (2005). Gas flaring in Nigeria: A Human Rights, and
Environmental and Economic Monstrosity. Amsterdam, The
Netherlands.

(7) Horsfall, M.Jr and Spifff, A. I. (2001). Principles of

Environmental Chemistry (with physical, chemical and biological
emphasis.). Metroprints, Port Harcourt.

(8) Lohmann, L. (2006). Carbon trading a critical conversation

on climate change, privatization and power. Development dialogue no.
48. p1 .

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(9) Nilsson, S. and Pitt, D. 1994 protecting the atmosphere - The
climate change convention and its context. Earth Scan, London.

(10) NOAA Coastal Services Centre (1998), Glossary of Coastal

Terminology, Publication no. 98-105.

(11) National Society for Clean Air (NSCA), (1989). Pollution

Glossary, Britain.

(12) Oku, H. B. (2003). The Niger Delta Environment, its local

geography. Prelyn Publishers, Port Harcourt.

(13) SPDC Annual Report. (2003.

(14) Welcomme, R.L. (1985). River Fisheries. FAO Fish. Tech.

Pap. (262): 330 p.

(15) Yakubu, A.F.; Sikoki, F.D. and Horsefall, M.Jnr. (1998). An

investigation into the physicochemical conditions and planktonic
organisms of the lower reaches of the Nun River, Nigeria. Jasem 1(1):
38-42.

(16) Zabbey, N. (2006b). Rainfall, Flooding and Climate Change.

Implication for the Socio-Economic of Port Harcourt. Paper presented at
a round table discussion of civil society organization in River State,
Organize by Kebetkeche Women Development and Resources Centre,
ERA conference room, Port Harcourt. September 28, 2006.

(17) Zabbey, N. (2006a). The challenges of sustainable shrimp

fisheries in Nigeria. Keynote address presented at a 2-day national

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workshop, organized by the Centre for Environment, Human Rights and
Development (CEHRD), Sissi Hotel, Port Harcourt, 15 –16 December,
2006.

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