Cross Asset

Technical Vista

May 19, 2011

International Markets Analysis

FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION Important Disclaimer in page 2
 Disclaimer

The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make
no representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of
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investment, financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein
may be based on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein
shall constitute any representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or
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Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This communication is provided for
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2
 Risk Sentiment

Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index US Risk Sentiment Index

0,6
0,6
Risk Appetite Ris k Appetite

0,35
0,35

0,1 0,1

-0,15 -0,15

-0,4 -0,4

-0,65 -0,65

-0,9 -0,9

-1,15 -1,15
Ris k Avers ion Ris k Avers ion
-1,4 -1,4

7 /0 7
9 /0 7
1 1 /0 7
1 /0 8
3 /0 8
5 /0 8
7 /0 8
9 /0 8
1 1 /0 8
1 /0 9
3 /0 9
5 /0 9
7 /0 9
9 /0 9
1 1 /0 9
1 /1 0
3 /1 0
5 /1 0
7 /1 0
9 /1 0
1 1 /1 0
1 /1 1
3 /1 1
5 /1 1
7 /0 7
9 /0 7
1 1 /0 7
1 /0 8
3 /0 8
5 /0 8
7 /0 8
9 /0 8
1 1 /0 8
1 /0 9
3 /0 9
5 /0 9
7 /0 9
9 /0 9
1 1 /0 9
1 /1 0
3 /1 0
5 /1 0
7 /1 0
9 /1 0
1 1 /1 0
1 /1 1
3 /1 1
5 /1 1
Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

Risk appetite appears as moderate in the Eurozone and US markets, though a bit lower than last
month.

3
 EUR/USD
Daily QEUR= 1/22/2008 - 7/22/2011 (GMT)
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200
100.0% 1.6038 Price
5/19/2011, 1.3657
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21 USD
5/19/2011, 1.4488 Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis 1.55
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
76.4% 1.5055 5/19/2011, 1.4294 1.5
0.0% 1.4942

61.8% 1.4448 23.6% 1.4453 1.45

38.2% 1.415
50.0% 1.3956 1.4
50.0% 1.3906
61.8% 1.3662
38.2% 1.3465 1.35
76.4% 1.3359
1.3
23.6% 1.2858 100.0% 1.2871
1.25

0.0% 1.1875 .1234

MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
5/19/2011, -0.0053, -0.0002 Value
USD
.1234
RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
5/19/2011, 39.819 Value
USD
.123
F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11

Wide intraday range for EUR/USD probably seems the main characteristic for the pair at least for
the following month, suggesting low conviction on trades.
Resistance levels for EUR/USD in the short term (1 month horizon) at $1.4339 (13/5/11 high),
$1.4441 (9/5/11 high) and $1.4587 (6/5/11 high).
Support levels, in case the downwards signals from 5, 21 MA crossing on May 9 and MACD are
confirmed, appear at $1.4118 (17/5/11 low), $1.4046 (16/5/11 low) and $1.4019 (28/3/11 low).
In the mid- term resistance level at $1.4587 (6/5/11) and at $1,4730 (76.4% Fibonacci
retracement 1.4939-1.4046), while support levels are placed at $1.3906 (50% retracement levels
4 61.8%: $1.2871-$1.4939) and at the area of $1.3657-62 (200 DMA & Fibonacci retracement
levels 61.8%: $1.2871-$1.4939).
 USD/JPY
Daily QJPY= 1/6/2010 - 6/15/2011 (GMT)
Price
/USD
100.0% 94.98
94

92
76.4% 90.77
90

61.8% 88.18 88

50.0% 86.07 86

38.2% Bid
83.97 84
BarOHLC, QJPY=,
5/19/2011, 81.67, 81.81, 81.46, 81.66
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 82
23.6% 81.37200
5/19/2011, 82.75
SMA, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 55 80
5/19/2011, 81.98
BBand, QJPY=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0 78
5/19/2011, 0.0% 77.1780.08
82.27, 81.18,
.12
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

USD/JPY remains in range trading mode in the short term (1 month horizon). The medium
term downwards trend has not reversed as the pair failed to break upwards the strong
resistance level of 86.00.
Resistance levels at 82.77 (200 DMA) and at 85.54 (7/4/11 high).
5 Support is placed at 80.00 (round number and possibly the defense/G7 intervention level).
 EUR/JPY
Daily QEURJPY= 5/11/2009 - 6/28/2011 (GMT)
Price
100.0% 139.23 BarOHLC, QEURJPY=, Bid JPY
5/19/2011, 116.37, 116.83, 116.18, 116.79
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 200 136
5/19/2011, 112.99
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 55
5/19/2011, 117.22 132
76.4% 131.25
SMA, QEURJPY=, Bid(Last), 21
5/19/2011, 117.65 128
61.8% 126.32
124
0.0% 123.3
50.0% 122.33

23.6% 119.6 120

38.2% 118.35
38.2% 117.31
116

23.6% 113.41 61.8% 113.61

112
76.4% 111.32

100.0% 107.62 108

0.0% 105.44
104
.12
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

EUR/JPY seems to have formed a base at the area of 110.72 (18/3/11 low) - 113.41 (16/5/11
low). This area may be revisited in the short term and be reconfirmed as strong support area.
Resistance levels at 117.58 (6/5/11 high), 119.78 (5/5/11), 121.83 (28/4/11 high) and at
6 122.33 (retracement 50.0% 139.23- 105.41).
 GBP/USD
Daily QGBP= 1/22/2010 - 7/12/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD

1.65

1.62

1.59

1.56

Cndl, QGBP=, Bid

1.53
5/19/2011, 1.6166, 1.6188, 1.6128, 1.6130
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 55
5/19/2011, 1.6282
1.5
SMA, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 200
5/19/2011, 1.5928 1.47
BBand, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
5/19/2011, 1.6740, 1.6412, 1.6085 1.44
BBand, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0
1.41
5/19/2011, 1.6740, 1.6412, 1.6085
.1234
RSI, QGBP=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
5/19/2011, 28.478 Value
USD

40
20
.123
01 16 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 01 18 02 16 01 16 01
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

GBP/USD is in a corrective phase after posting a 17 month high ($1.6745) on April 28. However,
the medium term uptrend remains intact.
Support placed at the area of $1.5925-50 (200 DMA, uptrend support channel and 28/3/11 low)
and at $1.5750 (25/1/2011 low).
7 Resistance levels are found at 1.6285 (55 DMA), at $1.6517 (11/5/11 high) and at $1.6745
(28/4/11 high).
 EUR/GBP
Daily QEURGBP= 8/15/2008 - 7/13/2011 (GMT)

Price
100.0% 0.9803
GBP
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 200
5/19/2011, 0.8570
0.96
SMA, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 55
5/19/2011, 0.8776
76.4% 0.9393 Cndl, QEURGBP=, Bid 0.94
5/19/2011, 0.8812, 0.8840, 0.8807, 0.8814

0.92
61.8% 0.9139
0.0% 0.9042
0.9
50.0% 0.8934
23.6% 0.8811 0.88
38.2% 0.8729
38.2% 0.8668
0.86
50.0% 0.8553
23.6% 0.8475
61.8% 0.8438
0.84
76.4% 0.8295
0.82

0.0% 0.8065 100.0% 0.8065

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis .1234
RSI, QEURGBP=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
5/19/2011, 52.393 Value
GBP

.123
S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Q3 08 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

EUR/GBP has entered into range trading mode. The medium term upwards trend remains in
place, however the momentum has weakened.
Significant resistance level is placed at the area of 0.8900 (6/5/11 high), at 0.9042 (5/5/11 high)
and at 0.9139 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement 0.9803-0.8065).
Support levels are found at the area of 0.8650-70 (23/3/11 low & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement
8
0.8065-0.9042) and at 0.8570 (200 DMA).
 USD/CHF
Daily QCHF= 10/4/2010 - 5/31/2011 (GMT)
Price
/USD

0.98
100.0% 0.9775

0.96

76.4% 0.9486
0.94
61.8% 0.9307
Cndl, QCHF=, Bid
0.92
5/19/2011, 0.8810, 0.8826, 0.8762, 0.8823 50.0% 0.9162
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 55
0.9 5/19/2011, 0.8988 38.2% 0.9018
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 200
5/19/2011, 0.9549 23.6% 0.8839
0.88
SMA, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 21
5/19/2011, 0.8770
0.86
0.0% 0.855
.1234
MACD, QCHF=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
5/19/2011, -0.0036, -0.0061 Value
/USD

-0.01
.1234
04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 13 20 27 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30
Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
USD/CHF remains in downtrend in the short and medium term. However, is attempting to react
upwards in the short term.
Support level at 0.8770 CHF (21 DMA) and at 0.8550 CHF (historic low).
Resistance is found at the area of 0.8940-50 CHF (medium term resistance trend channel &
9 13/5/11 high), at 0.9018 CHF (38.2% Fibonacci retracement 0.9775 0.8550 CHF) and at
0.9307 CHF (61.8% Fibonacci retracement 0.9775 0.8550 CHF).
 EUR/CHF
Daily QEURCHF= 11/30/2009 - 6/16/2011 (GMT)

Cndl, QEURCHF=, Bid Price

5/19/2011, 1.2553, 1.2587, 1.2530, 1.2562 CHF
SMA, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 21
5/19/2011, 1.2708 1.44
SMA, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 55
5/19/2011, 1.2846
1.41
SMA, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 200
5/19/2011, 1.3024
100.0% 1.3834 1.38

76.4% 1.3496 1.35

61.8% 1.3286
1.32
50.0% 1.3117
38.2% 1.2948 1.29
23.6% 1.2738
1.26

0.0% 1.24
.1234
RSI, QEURCHF=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
5/19/2011, 37.852 Value
CHF

.123
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
EUR/CHF is still range trading in the short term with negative bias. The medium term downwards
trend remains intact.
Support is found at the area of 1.2480 CHF (17/3/11 low) and at 1.2400 CHF (historic low).
Resistance levels are placed at the area of 1.3000-30 CHF (medium term resistance trend
10
channel & 200 DMA) and at 1.3236 CHF (6/4/11 high).
 Crude Oil (WTI) 1stst Month Future
Oil (WTI)
Daily QCLc1 4/16/2008 - 7/15/2011 (NYC)

100.0% 147.27 Cndl, QCLc1, Last Trade

Price
5/19/2011, 99.76, 100.56, 99.68, 99.93
USD
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 200
Bbl
5/19/2011, 89.88
130
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 55
76.4% 120.16 5/19/2011, 105.38 120
SMA, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 21 0.0% 114.84
5/19/2011, 105.53 110
61.8% 103.39 23.6% 102.9
100
38.2% 95.51
50.0% 89.84 50.0% 89.54 90
61.8% 83.57
80
38.2% 76.28 76.4% 76.19
70
100.0% 64.25
23.6% 59.51 60

50

40
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
0.0% 32.4
.12
RSI, QCLc1, Last Trade(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
5/19/2011, 42.311 Value
USD
Bbl
123
M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 [Delayed]

Crude oil (WTI) is reacting downwards after posting on April 29 ($114.18/brl) 31 month high. The
medium upwards trend has not reversed.
Support levels at the area of $94.65-95.50/brl (6/5/11 & 17/5/11 lows and 38.2% Fibonacci
retracement $64.25-$114.84) and at $89.90/brl (200 DMA).
11
Resistance level is placed at $105.40/brl (55 DMA) and $109.38/brl (5/5/11 high).
 Spot Gold
Daily QXAU= 5/3/2010 - 6/8/2011 (GMT)

0.0% 1,575.83 Price

USD
Ozs

1,500
23.6% 1,476.96
1,450

38.2% 1,415.79
1,400

50.0% 1,366.36
1,350

61.8% 1,316.92
1,300

Cndl, QXAU=, Bid

76.4% 1,255.75 5/19/2011, 1,496.30, 1,499.51, 1,489.29, 1,490.30 1,250
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 21
5/19/2011, 1,509.17 1,200
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 55
100.0% 1,156.88 5/19/2011, 1,466.15
1,150
SMA, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 200
5/19/2011, 1,376.77 .12
RSI, QXAU=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
5/19/2011, 45.180 Value
USD
Ozs
.123
03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 01 18 02 16 01
Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

Gold is consolidating in the short term. The medium term strong upwards trend remains intact.
Support level appears at $1,466/Oz (55 DMA) at $1,415.80/Oz (38.2% Fibonacci retracement
$1,156.88-$1,575.80 and at the area of $1,3770-80/Oz (200 DMA & long term uptrend line).
Resistance levels are found at $1,526.30/Oz (11/5/11 high).
12
 S&P 500
Daily Q.GSPC 8/20/2007 - 7/27/2011 (NYC)

100.0% 1,576.13 Price

BarOHLC, Q.GSPC, Last Trade
USD
5/18/2011, 1,328.75, 1,341.74, 1,326.65, 1,340.68
SMA, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 55
5/18/2011, 1,323.61 1,400
76.4% 1,361.47 SMA, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 200
5/18/2011, 1,235.95
1,300
SMA, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 21
61.8% 1,228.67 5/18/2011, 1,343.53
1,200

50.0% 1,121.34 1,100

38.2% 1,014 1,000

900
23.6% 881.21

800

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis 700
0.0% 666.55 .12
RSI, Q.GSPC, Last Trade(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
5/18/2011, 50.513 Value
USD
123
S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11

S&P 500 seems in consolidation mode in the short term.

The break downwards of the 21 days MA from the 5 days MA on May 16 and the MACD negative
divergence indication since 5/5 are signaling some weakness.
Support levels at 1,310 and at 1,295.60 (50% and 61.8% retracement levels respectively of the
move: 1,248.83 (16/3/11)-1,370.58 (2/5/11)).
Despite short term consolidation, the mid-term bullish trend for the S&P 500 remains intact as
indicated by weekly trend indicators and longer term MA s (200 DMA, 55 DMA).
Resistance levels for the 1 month horizon in the area of 1,361 (3/5/11 high and Fibonacci
13 retracement level 76.4%: 1,576.1 (11/10/07)-667 (6/3/09)).
Resistance level for the mid-term (3 month horizon) at 1,403.9 (6/6/08 high).
 US 10YR Government Bond Yield
Daily QUS10YT=RR 2/10/2010 - 6/13/2011 (UTC)
Yield
100.0% 4.0017
4
3.9
3.8
3.7
76.4% 3.6079 3.6
3.5
3.4
61.8% 3.3643
3.3
3.2
50.0% 3.1674
3.1

38.2% 2.9705 BarOHLC, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1 3

5/19/2011, 3.1838, 3.2023, 3.1746, 3.1949 2.9
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55 2.8
23.6% 2.7269 5/19/2011, 3.3589
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21 2.7
5/19/2011, 3.2408 2.6
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 200 2.5
5/19/2011, 3.0786
BBand, QUS10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21, Simple, 2.0 2.4
0.0% 2.3331 5/19/2011, 3.4167, 3.2408, 3.0649 .1234
16 01 16 01 16 03 17 01 16 01 16 02 16 01 16 01 18 01 16 01 16 03 18 01 16 01 16 01 18 02 16 01
Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
Support levels for the US 10year government bond yield at 3.08% (200 DMA), 2.93% (7/12/10
low) and at 2.88% (Fibonacci retracement level: 61.8% (2.33%-3.77%)).
Resistance levels in the short term at 3.25% (12/5/11 high and 21 DMA) and 3.36% (55 DMA).
Resistance in the mid term at 3.77% (9/2/11 high).
14
 German 10YR
10YR Government
Government Bond
Bond Yield
Yield
Daily QDE10YT=RR 8/12/2009 - 7/4/2011 (UTC)

Yield
0.0% 3.513
3.4
3.3
3.2
23.6% 3.177
3.1

3
38.2% 2.969
2.9

50.0% 2.801 2.8

2.7
BarOHLC, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1 61.8% 2.633 2.6
5/19/2011, 3.133, 3.151, 3.121, 3.129
SMA, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 55 2.5
5/19/2011, 3.265 76.4% 2.425 2.4
SMA, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 200
5/19/2011, 2.850 2.3
SMA, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 21 2.2
5/19/2011, 3.201
100.0% 2.089 2.1
.123
RSI, QDE10YT=RR, Yield_1(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing
5/19/2011, 36.230 Value

30
.123
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
Moving averages (55, 21, 5 days) suggest that the German 10 year government bond yield is in
downtrend in the short term.
Support is placed at 3.06% (16/3/11 & 15/5/11 low), at 2.97% (38.2% Fibonacci retracement
2.089% - 3.513%) and at 2.85% (200 DMA).
15 Resistance level is found at 3.265% (55 DMA) and at 3.334% (5/5/11 high).
 US 5yr interest rate swap
Daily QUSDSB3L5Y=RR 3/27/2009 - 7/1/2011 (UTC)
Price
BarOHLC, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid
100.0% 3.546 5/19/2011, 2.070, 2.108, 2.069, 2.102
SMA, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 55 3.4
5/19/2011, 2.258
SMA, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 21
3.2
5/19/2011, 2.124
SMA, QUSDSB3L5Y=RR, Bid(Last), 200
76.4% 3.014 5/19/2011, 1.989 3

2.8

61.8% 2.685
0.0% 2.637 2.6

50.0% 2.419 2.4

23.6% 2.32
2.2
38.2% 2.153 38.2% 2.123
2
50.0% 1.964

23.6% 1.824 61.8% 1.805 1.8

76.4% 1.609 1.6

1.4
0.0% 1.292 100.0% 1.291
1.2
.123
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011

Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis
Some downwards pressure on the US 5 year swap rate seems to persist.
The 5year swap rate has bounced up (2.10%) after testing the 200 days MA (1.99%). Support
levels at 1.99% and at 1.81% (61.8% Fibonacci retracement 1.29% - 2.637%).
16 Resistance at 2.26% (55 DMA) and at 2.31% (25/4/11 high).
 Euro 5yr interest
interest rate
rate swap
swap
Daily QEURAB6E5Y= 4/14/2009 - 6/20/2011 (GMT)

Price
0.0% 3.2349
EUR

23.6% 2.871
2.8

38.2% 2.6459
2.6

50.0% 2.464
2.4
SMA, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 55
5/19/2011, 3.0057 61.8% 2.2821
SMA, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 200 2.2
5/19/2011, 2.5014
76.4% 2.0569
SMA, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 21 2
5/19/2011, 2.9724
Cndl, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid
5/19/2011, 2.9100, 2.9450, 2.8890, 2.9100 1.8
100.0% 1.6931 .1234
MACD, QEURAB6E5Y=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
5/19/2011, -0.0361, -0.0308 Value
EUR

.1234
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011
Source: Reuters,
Reuters, International Markets Analysis

Euro 5yr interest rate swap correction phase persists, as it has broken the medium uptrend line.
Support at 2.8530% (13/5/11 low), at 2.74% (16/3/11 low) and at 2.65% (38.2% Fibonacci
retracement 1.69%-3.24%).
Resistance level is placed at 3.00% (55 DMA) and at 3.13% (4-5/5/11 highs).
17
 Correlation Matrix
50 Days Correlation Matrix (Value)
Equity Index Commodities Risk Aversion Index
S&P 500 Euro Stoxx 50 MSCI AC World CRB GOLD WTI RA EU RA US
Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m
DXY -0,7028 0,2207 -0,5784 0,5431 -0,7782 0,0188 -0,4030 -0,8002 -0,8628 -0,8842 -0,5952 -0,9057 0,6572 0,4584 0,6717 0,1679
EUR/USD 0,7136 -0,1090 0,6579 -0,4538 0,8123 0,0813 0,5131 0,8023 0,8185 0,8765 0,6944 0,8940 -0,6596 -0,5106 -0,7056 -0,2739
USD/JPY 0,1475 0,7981 0,4682 0,6242 0,2652 0,8250 0,5522 0,2907 -0,0930 0,2423 0,4866 0,1163 -0,1471 -0,5570 -0,2837 -0,7337
GBP/USD 0,6531 0,0955 0,5666 0,0060 0,7447 0,3239 0,4360 0,5752 0,8466 0,6495 0,5934 0,4596 -0,6231 -0,4082 -0,5896 -0,1835
USD/CHF -0,5912 0,4576 -0,2753 0,6991 -0,5773 0,2518 0,0469 -0,6789 -0,8511 -0,8309 -0,1838 -0,8408 0,5886 0,2513 0,5506 -0,0673
EUR/CHF -0,0095 0,7480 0,4198 0,6068 0,1421 0,6714 0,7442 0,0853 -0,2856 -0,1017 0,6147 -0,0810 0,0766 -0,4290 -0,0524 -0,6340
EUR/GBP 0,5943 -0,1627 0,5859 -0,5249 0,6751 -0,0312 0,4615 0,7034 0,5772 0,7598 0,6208 0,8528 -0,5295 -0,4309 -0,6501 -0,2428
EUR/JPY 0,5929 0,3759 0,7738 0,0295 0,7428 0,5293 0,7332 0,7437 0,5037 0,7697 0,8144 0,7107 -0,5554 -0,6845 -0,6813 -0,6140
Bund Fut. 0,1452 -0,2356 -0,3491 0,0847 -0,0667 -0,3259 -0,7171 -0,5695 0,3291 -0,5566 -0,5731 -0,5902 -0,0791 0,5631 -0,0043 0,5206

Government Bonds
2Y US 10Y US 2Y GE 10Y GE 2Y UK 10Y UK 2Y JN 10Y JN
Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m Current -1m
DXY 0,2243 0,2421 0,2134 0,4707 -0,4686 -0,8809 -0,0736 -0,5045 0,4680 0,7547 0,3424 0,4465 0,3955 0,7260 0,1969 0,2736
EUR/USD -0,0473 -0,1023 -0,0449 -0,3572 0,5782 0,9102 0,2534 0,6265 -0,3284 -0,6812 -0,1684 -0,3130 -0,3534 -0,7598 -0,0332 -0,1625
USD/JPY 0,8286 0,7571 0,8232 0,6387 0,6042 0,3113 0,8424 0,7499 0,6886 0,4369 0,8335 0,7099 0,1572 -0,1464 0,7699 0,7388
GBP/USD -0,2397 -0,1020 -0,1601 -0,0392 0,4012 0,4502 0,0674 0,3566 -0,3495 -0,1563 -0,2638 -0,0278 -0,2600 -0,1372 -0,1338 0,1785
USD/CHF 0,5964 0,4948 0,6085 0,6912 -0,2651 -0,7288 0,3373 -0,2129 0,8016 0,8615 0,6932 0,6724 0,5543 0,6233 0,5408 0,4502
EUR/CHF 0,8971 0,8294 0,9175 0,7640 0,3435 0,1762 0,8763 0,7065 0,8489 0,5286 0,8929 0,8037 0,4138 -0,1105 0,8204 0,6207
EUR/GBP 0,1721 -0,0814 0,0911 -0,3980 0,6206 0,8739 0,3876 0,5806 -0,2215 -0,7249 -0,0219 -0,3530 -0,3653 -0,8214 0,0817 -0,2585
EUR/JPY 0,5337 0,3577 0,5322 0,1069 0,8134 0,8326 0,7527 0,8781 0,2426 -0,2405 0,4543 0,1796 -0,1370 -0,6300 0,5040 0,3046
Bund Fut. -0,9070 -0,3427 -0,9363 -0,0992 -0,4082 -0,7625 -0,9693 -0,9032 -0,8354 0,2926 -0,9388 -0,2095 -0,4529 0,7133 -0,9276 -0,2297
Significant negative correlation Significant positive correlation
50 trading days rolling price correlation. Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

EUR/USD displays negative correlation with risk aversion. EUR/USD positive correlation with
stocks has risen. Moreover it remains positively correlated with commodities.
USD/JPY positive correlation with US government bond yields has strengthened.
USD/CHF is still negatively correlated with Gold price.
18
 Technical Analysis Synopsis

Percent Change to Date Range MA's crossover Overbought/Oversold MACD Signal 3 Months trend
Last_Price Monthly trend
Week Month Year Upper Lower signal Singal (Daily) (Daily)
DXY Dollar Index 75,268 -0,65 3,19 -4,76 Uptrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
EUR/USD 1,4282 1,15 -3,55 6,70 Downtrend Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
GBP/USD 1,6187 -0,08 -3,13 3,66 Range Trading 1,6738 1,6097 Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
USD/JPY 81,9 1,33 0,85 0,94 Range Trading 82,31 80,10 Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
FX

USD/CHF 0,8828 -1,09 1,99 -5,92 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
EUR/GBP 0,88227 1,21 -0,43 2,84 Range Trading 0,8992 0,8663 Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
EUR/JPY 116,96 2,47 -2,80 7,25 Range Trading 122,32 113,06 Up No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
EUR/CHF 1,26097 0,04 -1,62 0,81 Downtrend Down No Signal Down Signal Downtrend
S&P 500 INDEX 1363,61 0,22 -1,68 6,60 Range Trading 1369 1318 Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr 2899,82 0,20 -3,68 3,86 Range Trading 3030 2837 Up No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
Equities

DAX INDEX 7400,41 -0,02 -1,50 7,06 Range Trading 7618 7164 Up No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
CAC 40 INDEX 4028,51 0,26 -1,89 5,90 Range Trading 4134 3930 Up No Signal Down Signal Range Trading
NIKKEI 225 10004,2 -0,29 -2,32 -5,94 Range Trading 9952 9424 Down No Signal Down Signal Downtrend
Cmdties

Crude Oil 1m Future 100,63 1,04 -11,62 10,19 Downtrend Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
GOLD SPOT $/OZ 1493,9 -0,10 -4,49 5,12 Range Trading 1552,19 1468,83 Up No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
Copper Furture 1M 411,85 3,13 -1,58 -7,66 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
10Y GE Govt Yield 3,268 2,08 -3,03 6,01 Downtrend Down No Signal Down Signal Downtrend
Fixed Income

2Y GE Govt Yield 1,807 4,39 4,69 114,58 Range Trading 1,8859 1,6852 Up No Signal Up Signal Uptrend
10Y US Govt Yield 3,301 0,67 -2,87 -3,08 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Downtrend
2Y US Govt Yield 0,6171 5,97 -6,15 -4,90 Range Trading 0,6658 0,4996 Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading
EUR 5 Yr IRS 3,06 2,38 -2,48 18,12 Downtrend Down No Signal Down Signal Uptrend
US 5 Yr IRS 2,1608 2,32 -2,21 -3,27 Downtrend Down No Signal Up Signal Range Trading

Source: Bloomberg,
Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

19
 210-326 8265 marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos premoundos@alpha.gr

Maria Koutouzi mkoutouzi@alpha.gr
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA ikouravelos@alpha.gr
Konstantinos Anathreptais kanathreptakis@alpha.gr