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Reliability:

A Probability of a product to fulfill its intended function for a specified period of time
under state operating conditions.- NSWC handbook.
In simple words, we can say that Reliability is the probability that a system will survive
after a particular time.
For example, 95% reliability at t=5 yrs. means that 95 out of 100 units performs its
intended function at t=5 yrs. when the system is used under defined operating
conditions.
Explain reliability in details stating how do we calculate failure rate

Give example of fan


Give example of failure rate and how it is calculated

Failure Rate:
The probability of failure per unit of time for the item still functioning.
Mathematically, Failure rate= (No. of failure/Accumulated operation time of item).
Average Failure Rate is inverse of MTTF (Mean Time To Failure).
Types of failure rate are: decreasing failure rate (seen at start of system life), constant
failure rate (seen due to random causes), and increasing failure rate (seen due to wear
out).
Confidence Level:
Confidence level is the probability that a given statement is correct. Thus, when a 90%
confidence level is used, the probability that the findings are valid for the device
population is 90%.

Confidence Bounds:
Because life data analysis results are estimates based on the observed lifetimes of a
sampling of units, there is uncertainty in the results due to the limited sample sizes.
"Confidence bounds" (also called "confidence intervals") are used to quantify this
uncertainty due to sampling error by expressing the confidence that a specific interval
contains the quantity of interest. Whether or not a specific interval contains the quantity
of interest is unknown.
For example: we have to pass a lot of 50 systems by testing 2 samples, then there
exists an uncertainty that all the system will individually pass the criteria. This
uncertainty is represented by confidence bounds.
90% Two- Sided Confidence Bound 95% One Sided Upper CB 95%
One Sided Lower CB

When we use two-sided confidence bounds (or intervals), we are looking at a closed
interval where a certain percentage of the population is likely to lie. That is, we
determine the values, or bounds, between which lies a specified percentage of the
population. For example, when dealing with 90% two-sided confidence bounds of
, we are saying that 90% of the population lies between and with 5% less
than and 5% greater than .
Similarly, if is a 95% upper one-sided bound, this would imply that 95% of the
population is less than . If is a 95% lower one-sided bound, this would indicate that
95% of the population is greater than .
Give example of marbles to make them understand better,

History behind RDT

Reliability testing is the cornerstone of a reliability engineering program. The importance


of reliability testing being planned primarily to improve reliability by showing up potential
weaknesses. However, a properly designed series of tests can also generate data that
would be useful in determining if the product meets specied requirements to operate
without failure during its mission life, or to achieve a specied level of reliability. Many
product development programs require a series of environmental tests to be completed
to demonstrate that the reliability requirements are met by the manufacturer and then
demonstrated to the customer. Reliability demonstration testing is usually performed at
the stage where hardware (and software when applicable) is available for test and is
either fully functional or can perform all or most of the intended product functions. While
it is desirable to be able to test a large population of units to failure in order to obtain
information on a products or designs reliability, time and resource constraints
sometimes make this impossible. In cases such as these, a test can be run on a
specied number of units, or for a specied amount of time, that will demonstrate that
the product has met or exceeded a given reliability at a given condence level. In the
nal analysis, the actual reliability of the units will of course remain unknown, but
thereliabilityengineerwillbeabletostatethatcertainspecicationshavebeenmet.

Most product design specications come with some form of reliability requirements,
which are expressed as reliability metrics. If the system is complex those requirements
may come from reliability apportionment or other requirements generated at the system,
subsystem or component level. Probably the most common reliability metric is the
simple reliability function R(t). For example a product specication may state that the
expected reliability over a 5-yr life should be no less than 98.0% meaning R(5 yrs) =
0.98. A reliability requirement often comes with a specied condence level based on a
test sample size.

Theinitialproductrequirement denes B10 life of 5years


.Convertthisrequirementtootherreliabilitymetrics. Under the assumption of exponentially
distributed failures: R(5yrs)=0.90=exp 5yrs MTTF (14.2)
Solving (14.2) we obtain MTTF = 47.5 years. Failure rate = 1/MTTF = 0.021 failures
per year or assuming 24 hours per day operation =0.0210/(36524)=2.4106 failures
per hour. Also, based on (14.1) R(5yrs)=0.9 would mean 100000 PPM at 5 yrs

Characteristics of the Weibull Distribution

The Weibull shape parameter, , is also known as the Weibull slope. This is because the
value of is equal to the slope of the line in a probability plot. Different values of the shape
parameter can have marked effects on the behavior of the distribution. In fact, some values
of the shape parameter will cause the distribution equations to reduce to those of other
distributions. For example, when = 1, the pdf of the three-parameter Weibull reduces to
that of the two-parameter exponential distribution. The parameter is a pure number (i.e.,
it is dimensionless).
The following figure shows the effect of different values of the shape parameter, , on the
shape of the pdf (while keeping constant). One can see that the shape of the pdf can take
on a variety of forms based on the value of .
Looking at the same information on a Weibull probability plot, one can easily understand
why the Weibull shape parameter is also known as the slope. The following plot shows how
the slope of the Weibull probability plot changes with . Note that the models represented
by the three lines all have the same value of .
This is one of the most important aspects of the effect of on the Weibull distribution. As is
indicated by the plot, Weibull distributions with < 1 have a failure rate that decreases with
time, also known as infantile or early-life failures. Weibull distributions with close to or
equal to 1 have a fairly constant failure rate, indicative of useful life or random failures.
Weibull distributions with > 1 have a failure rate that increases with time, also known as
wear-out failures. These comprise the three sections of the classic "bathtub curve." A mixed
Weibull distribution with one subpopulation with < 1, one subpopulation with = 1 and
one subpopulation with > 1 would have a failure rate plot that was identical to the bathtub
curve. An example of a bathtub curve is shown in the following chart.

Weibull Scale parameter,


A change in the scale parameter, , has the same effect on the distribution as a change of
the abscissa scale. Increasing the value of while holding constant has the effect of
stretching out the pdf. Since the area under a pdf curve is a constant value of one, the
"peak" of the pdf curve will also decrease with the increase of , as indicated in the
following figure.
If is increased, while and are kept the same, the distribution gets stretched out to
the right and its height decreases, while maintaining its shape and location.
If is decreased, while and are kept the same, the distribution gets pushed in
towards the left (i.e., towards its beginning or towards 0 or ), and its height increases.
has the same unit as T, such as hours, miles, cycles, actuations, etc.
Reliability demonstration

Reliability testing is the cornerstone of a reliability engineering program. The


importance of reliability testing being planned primarily to improve reliability
by showing up potential weaknesses. However, a properly designed series of
tests can also generate data that would be useful in determining if the product
meets specied requirements to operate without failure during its mission life,
or to achieve a specied level of reliability. Many product development
programs require a series of environmental tests to be completed to
demonstrate that the reliability requirements are met by the manufacturer
and then demonstrated to the customer. Reliability demonstration testing is
usually performed at the stage where hardware (and software when
applicable) is available for test and is either fully functional or can perform all
or most of the intended product functions. While it is desirable to be able to
test a large population of units to failure in order to obtain information on a
products or designs reliability, time and resource constraints sometimes
make this impossible. In cases such as these, a test can be run on a specied
number of units, or for a specied amount of time, that will demonstrate that
the product has met or exceeded a given reliability at a given condence level.
In the nal analysis, the actual reliability of the units will of course remain
unknown, but
thereliabilityengineerwillbeabletostatethatcertainspecicationshavebeenmet.

Most product design specications come with some form of reliability


requirements, which are expressed as reliability metrics. If the system is
complex those requirements may come from reliability apportionment or other
requirements generated at the system, subsystem or component level.
Probably the most common reliability metric is the simple reliability function
R(t). For example a product specication may state that the expected
reliability over a 5-yr life should be no less than 98.0% meaning R(5 yrs) =
0.98. A reliability requirement often comes with a specied condence level
based on a test sample size.

Reliability Demonstration Tests (RDT): Often used to demonstrate if the product reliability
can meet the requirement. For this type of test design, four methods are supported in Weibull++:

o Parametric (Cumulative) Binomial: Used when the test duration is different


from the time of the required reliability. An underlying distribution should be
assumed.
o Non-Parametric Binomial: No distribution assumption is needed for this test
design method. It can be used for one shot devices.
o Exponential Chi-Squared: Designed for exponential failure time.
o Non-Parametric Bayesian: Integrated Bayesian theory with the traditional non-
parametric binomial method.
o
Expected Failure Times Plot: Can help the engineer determine the expected test
duration when the total sample size is known and the allowed number of failures is given.
Difference Detection Matrix: Can help the engineer design a test to compare the BX%
life or mean life of two different designs/products.
Simulation: Simulation can be used to help the engineer determine the sample size, test
duration or expected number of failures in a test. To determine these variables, analytical
methods need to make assumptions such as the distribution of model parameters. The
simulation method does not need any assumptions. Therefore, it is more accurate than the
analytical method, especially when the sample size is small.

Cumulative Binomial

This methodology requires the use of the cumulative binomial distribution in addition to the
assumed distribution of the product's lifetimes. Not only does the life distribution of the product
need to be assumed beforehand, but a reasonable assumption of the distribution's shape
parameter must be provided as well. Additional information that must be supplied includes:

a) the reliability to be demonstrated,


b) the confidence level at which the demonstration takes place,
c) the acceptable number of failures
d) either the number of available units or the amount of available test time.

The output of this analysis can be the amount of time required to test the available units or the
required number of units that need to be tested during the available test time. Usually the
engineer designing the test will have to study the financial trade-offs between the number of
units and the amount of test time needed to demonstrate the desired goal. In cases like this, it is
useful to have a "carpet plot" that shows the possibilities of how a certain specification can be
met.

Reliability Demonstration Testing:

Frequently, the entire purpose of designing a test with few or no failures is to


demonstrate a certain reliability, , at a certain time. With the exception of the
exponential distribution (and ignoring the location parameter for the time being), this
reliability is going to be a function of time, a shape parameter and a scale parameter.

---------- (A)

--------------- (B)
where:

= the required confidence level


= the allowable number of failures
= the total number of units on test
= the reliability on test
= shape parameter of Weibull distribution
= scale parameter of Weibull distribution

Example
In this example, we will use the parametric binomial method to design a test to
demonstrate a reliability of 90% at hours with a 95% confidence if no
failure occur during the test. We will assume a Weibull distribution with a shape
parameter .
Determining Units for Available Test Time
In the above scenario, we know that we have the testing facilities available
for hours. We must now determine the number of units to test for this amount
of time with no failures in order to have demonstrated our reliability goal. The first step is
to determine the Weibull scale parameter, . The Weibull reliability equation is:

This can be rewritten as:

Since we know the values of , and , we can substitute these in the


equation and solve for :

Next, the value of is calculated by:

The last step is to substitute the appropriate values into the cumulative binomial
equation, which for the Weibull distribution appears as:
The values of , , , and have already been calculated or specified,
so it merely remains to solve the equation for .
Similarly, we can use equation (A) and equation (B), to find the value of .

welcome
Looking at the same information on a Weibull probability plot, one can easily understand
why the Weibull shape parameter is also known as the slope. The following plot shows how
the slope of the Weibull probability plot changes with . Note that the models represented
by the three lines all have the same value of .

Another characteristic of the distribution where the value of has a distinct effect is the
failure rate. The following plot shows the effect of the value of on the Weibull failure rate.
This is one of the most important aspects of the effect of on the Weibull distribution. As is
indicated by the plot, Weibull distributions with < 1 have a failure rate that decreases with
time, also known as infantile or early-life failures. Weibull distributions with close to or
equal to 1 have a fairly constant failure rate, indicative of useful life or random failures.
Weibull distributions with > 1 have a failure rate that increases with time, also known as
wear-out failures. These comprise the three sections of the classic "bathtub curve." A mixed
Weibull distribution with one subpopulation with < 1, one subpopulation with = 1 and
one subpopulation with > 1 would have a failure rate plot that was identical to the bathtub
curve. An example of a bathtub curve is shown in the following chart.
Weibull Scale parameter,
A change in the scale parameter, , has the same effect on the distribution as a change of
the abscissa scale. Increasing the value of while holding constant has the effect of
stretching out the pdf. Since the area under a pdf curve is a constant value of one, the
"peak" of the pdf curve will also decrease with the increase of , as indicated in the
following figure.
If is increased, while and are kept the same, the distribution gets stretched out to
the right and its height decreases, while maintaining its shape and location.
If is decreased, while and are kept the same, the distribution gets pushed in
towards the left (i.e., towards its beginning or towards 0 or ), and its height increases.
has the same unit as T, such as hours, miles, cycles, actuations, etc.

Weibull Reliability Metrics

As was mentioned in last month's Reliability Basics, the pdf can be used to derive
commonly-used reliability metrics such as the reliability function, failure rate, mean and
median. The equations for these functions of the Weibull distribution will be presented in the
following section, without derivations for the sake of brevity and simplicity. Note that in the
rest of this section we will assume the most general form of the Weibull distribution, the
three-parameter form. The appropriate substitutions to obtain the other forms, such as the
two-parameter form where = 0, or the one-parameter form where is a constant, can
easily be made.

Values of Beta to be assumed

Most Weibull beta (slope of the Weibull line which is a shape factor) and eta values (a
location parameter know as the characteristic value) are frequently viewed by
experienced end users of the data as proprietary
information. Experienced practitioners of Weibull technology do not widely publish
or disseminate their expensive data.

Weibull beta values are driven by the physics of failure. Weibull eta values are
measures of durability. Eta values can be changed by grades of materials whereas the
beta values cannot be dialed up but are dependent upon the physics of failure.

There are no true values for betait depends upon experience and specific cases
even with test results from manufacturers.

The real data is in the databases of manufacturing companies, who treat the data as
very valuable proprietary information and they will not broadly release the
information because of misuse, arguments, and abuse of their expensive test data.

When we have the Weibull Users conference (usually held every two years, but it did
not occur this year, 2009, because of the poor economy), we hear manufactures
describe beta/eta values for practical applications. Remember manufactures have to
spend money to get test data under carefully controlled test, whereas end users of
equipment acquire their data as a product of using the equipment under variable and
uncontrolled conditions. So its important to know some typical values by failure
modes.

mortality type failure modes (its easier to pry the belt over the lip of the pulley when
no one else is looking but that incorrect assembly method breaks the back of the
belt and produces an infant mortality failure mode). When infant mortality data is
mixed with longer lives of properly assembled belts which fail by wearout failure
modes, you will observe flatter betas!!with many mixed failure modes the
beta 1.

Remember the correct values for beta are hidden from competitors and inquiring eyes
by both manufactures and end users who have the correct values for their specific
cases. They will not widely disclose this valuable information because they use their
data for warranty costs, repair costs, and guaranteed maintenance contracts involving
substantial sums of money.