20/12/2017 The New Balance of Power in the Middle East – Analysis (1) | Eyes on Europe & Middle East

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GEOPOLITICS :ENGLISH ARTICLES, MIDDLE EAST ANALYSIS//ANALYSE DU NOUVEAU MOYEN ORIENT

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The New Balance of Power in the Middle East – Analysis (1)

AUGUST 23, 2017 | SOFRONIY LE BON | 3 COMMENTS

(Russia, United States, Turkey, Egypt, Qatar & Saudi Arabia)

In 2012, as part of a phenomena known as the ‘Arab Spring’, anti-government protests escalated into civil war in Syria. The combination of the Arab
uprisings that ousted long-time pro-Western autocrats in Tunis, Cairo, and Yemen coupled with the ongoing civil wars raging in Iraq, Syria, Libya,
and Yemen signal the dawn of a new era in the Middle East likely to be characterized by tremendous uncertainties (h ps://books.google.fr/books?
id=7RmEAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA52&lpg=PA52&dq=uncertainty+middle+east&source=bl&ots=EXqsRQX6fD&sig=KQbOlxBxQZboVDj_YQ_nwZ3ZYRc
&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiCm9Gdre3VAhVFfxoKHaUrBnQQ6AEIYDAM#v=onepage&q=uncertainty%20middle%20east&f=false) –
uncertainties that will make any balance-of-power calculations tenuous and transient at best.

Countries Involved in the Arab Spring protests, Source: Wikipedia

The modern order in the Middle East and the emergence of non-state actors in the region can be traced back to the Sykes-Picot Agreement signed by
Britain and France 100 years ago to divide the O oman Empire. (h ps://middleeastnewsservice.com/2016/08/25/the-sykes-picot-agreement-of-
1916/)The agreement officially established a vertical ruling order by the West to divide and rule in the Middle East. This not only profoundly

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transformed the geopolitical landscape in the region, but also started the history of the separation and parallel evolution of regimes and societies in
the region.

The balance of power theory in international relations suggests (h ps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_power_(international_relations)) that

national security is enhanced when military capability is distributed so that no one state is strong enough to dominate all others. If one state
becomes much stronger than others, the theory predicts that it will take advantage of its strength and a ack weaker neighbors, thereby providing
an incentive for those threatened to unite in a defensive coalition. Some realists maintain that this would be more stable as aggression would appear
una ractive and would be averted if there was equilibrium of power between the rival coalitions.

The result has been a shift in the balance of powers in the region with new powers emerging. Unfortunately, this uncertaintly predominates today
in Syria and Iraq , where we find a ba leground of the proxies of different states and non-states. To a lesser extent, focus is also on Yemen and
Egypt, but with the same level of concern as ‘Arab Spring’ sentiments of democracy and a high influx of radicalism persist.

Geopolitics changes extremely slowly because geography itself does not change. What changes is the political dimension of this geography. Most of
the catastrophic mistakes made by policymakers emanate from their lack of awareness of this difference between the stability of geography and the
changing elements of politics.

The future of Syria, which is expressed as a breakpoint of power balance in the Middle East by Russia and Iran and the US, is a direct determinant
of in what way regional balances will have shape.

Russia to counterbalance the “US hegemony” in the Middle East

The past few years have been characterized by increasing American-Russian competition all over the globe. Historically, major powers have rarely
balanced against the United States and not at all since the 1990s when it has become the sole superpower.

Since the end of the Cold War, the United States has been expanding its economic and political power. More recently, it has begun to engage in
increasingly unilateralist military policy… [Y]et despite these growing material capabilities, major powers such as China, France, Germany, India
and Russia have not responded with significant increases in their defense spending. Nor have they formed military coalitions to counterveil US
power, as traditional balance of power theory would predict.

Russia views the Middle East as its near abroad, and is in the early stages of executing a long-term strategy in an a empt to return itself to the
powerful stature and influence it had in the region during the heart of the Cold War. It is working to undercut longstanding U.S. relationships in the
Middle East and restructure the regional order more to its liking. Indeed, Russia’s strategy in the Middle East is no different than its approach to
undercu ing NATO and the EU in Europe. With the Syrian cease fire tenuously holding, and UN-brokered negotiations underway in Geneva,
President Putin’s surprise partial withdrawal of forces makes it clear that the Russian establishment has not forgo en the lessons of the Afghanistan
quagmire.

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Vladimir Putin declared in November 2016 that Russia will seek to maintain the world’s strategic balance of power and will work to neutralize the
threats stemming from creation of missile defense systems and the concept of global strike. What Putin seeks is a desirable balance of power, which
was formed back in the late 1940s and in the 1950s, enabled the world to avoid major armed conflicts, according to his own words. In other words, keeping
Assad in power is not the sole extent of Russian ambition in the region.

The obvious starting point was Russia’s decision to intervene in Syria in the fall of 2015 at the request of President Bashar al-Assad. The intervention
is historic, representing the first time the Russians have put boots on the ground to support an ongoing conflict in the region since their support for
Syria during the 1973 war with Israel. And by all accounts it has been a success, solidifying Assad’s position in Syria, protecting its single military
base in the Middle East, and causing regional actors to rethink Russia’s role in the region all at a relatively low cost.

Russia is actively testing and seeking to upend the decades-long, strategic partnerships that the United States has built with some the most
important state actors in the Middle East including Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Egypt and Israel.

Turkey and Egypt

For FT Turkey , is more focused on the realpolitik than the triumphalism during the last years ( in the Middle East). Ankara has had to give up its
support for Sunni rebels trying to topple the Assad regime, and move towards Russia and Iran to prevent Syrian Kurdish fighters allied with
insurgent Turkish Kurds from consolidating a self-governing entity along its borders. Turkey tries to balance the current political shifts, in the
Middle East of its politics, in its favour but currently the country is in a very delicate position. According to Al-Arabiya,
(h ps://english.alarabiya.net/en/views/news/middle-east/2017/07/25/Is-Turkey-sca ered-on-all-fronts-.html)there’s actually he impression that
Turkey is escaping its problems without actually solving them with a diplomacy that has lost its composure.

Turkey today is mired in a bloody war against the PKK domestically and the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its armed wing in Syria, the
People’s Protection Forces (YPG). Ankara is angered by US arming of the PYD, which Washington considers a partner in the war against Daesh in
Syria. Besides, the YPG is a very effective force against Daesh.

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curdistani
@curdistani

Iran, Turkey and Russia Seek a New Triangle for the Region -
english.aawsat.com/amir-taheri/fe… #Twitterkurds #Syria
#Rojava #YPG #ISIL #Kurdistan
4:21 PM - Aug 23, 2017

1 3

Map 1:Claimed territory of Rojava (in orange) not currently under control and the de facto territory
controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (in green). Source/caption: Wikipedia
(h ps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rojava#/media/File:Claimed_and_de_facto_territory_of_Rojava.png)

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As Turkey and Russia’s bilateral relationships with the United States soured, in the summer of 2016, Erdogan and Putin met in St. Petersberg, and
the two are now cooperating in Syria often without any consultation with the United States. They recently brokered a ceasefire between the Assad
regime and opposition forces, one that gave the United States no role whatsoever and have begun coordinating some strikes on the Islamic State.

Alwaght
@EnglishAlwaght

Turkey,Russia, Iran Planning Permanent Ceasefire in Syria:

Turkish
PMalwaght.com/en/news/107376#Turkey#Iran#Syria#Russia#Tr
uce#Permanent
2:18 AM - Aug 21, 2017

2 18 5

Turkey has agreed to pay $2.5 billion to acquire Russia’s most advanced missile defense system, the S-400, in a deal that signals a turn away from
the NATO military alliance that has anchored Turkey to the West for more than six decades. According to Bloomberg, the Russian system would
not be compatible with other NATO defense systems, but also wouldn’t be subject to the same constraints imposed by the alliance, which
prevents Turkey from deploying such systems on the Armenian border, Aegean coast or Greek border, the official said. The Russian deal would
allow Turkey to deploy the missile defense systems anywhere in the country, the official said. The partnership could boost Turkey’s defense
industry and serves the nation’s goal of diversifying arms suppliers.
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ourrights
@pretentiousdr

#Turkey, #Russia close to signing #S400 missile systems supply

contract!dailysabah.com/defense/2017/0…
7:59 PM - Aug 22, 2017

Turkey, Russia close to signing S-400 missile systems supply …

Turkey and Russia are close to signing a contract for supplying of S-
400 missile systems, Russian defense giant Rosoboronexport said
dailysabah.com

Nowadays, Turkey’s policy may be at risk. At the end of this era in the Middle East Turkey might not be between the winners as its policy
and a empts to ‘bandwagon for profit’ in order to maximize its power and promote a revisionist strategic agenda could boomerang. This cannot
work this time as it did at the end of WWII! (h ps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German%E2%80%93Turkish_Non-Aggression_Pact)

As the Arab Spring kicked off in 2011, a confident Turkey hoped to restore some of its former O oman-era glory, positioning itself as a leader
among the Sunni Muslim nations. (h ps://middleeastnewsservice.com/2017/07/10/les-cles-pour-comprendre-la-relation-et-les-liens-entre-lakp-
derdogan-et-les-freres-musulmans/) It threw its weight behind Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood and Syria’s rebels, just as it had backed Hamas in
Gaza. Qatar proved an enthusiastic ally.

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This strategy backfired when the Brotherhood was overthrown in Egypt and replaced by a military strongman who, backed by the region’s other
status quo powers, chiefly Saudi Arabia, is restoring the pre-2011 status quo in Cairo.

For 25 years from the 1952 revolution that brought Gamal Abdel Nasser and his supporters to power until the Camp David Accords in 1979, Egypt
had been the subject of intense U.S.-Soviet competition for influence. In 2014 Egypt and Russia signed their first major arms agreement since the
Cold War and have since been moving forward on additional follow-on deals.

After the chaos of governments overthrown in 2011 and 2013, Egypt has been recast into a hardened security state. Under Mr Sisi, policy is divorced
from politics and short-circuited by the security services. Egypt’s economy is vulnerable after a falling out with Saudi Arabia, its main financial
patron. Nato ally Turkey, meanwhile, is turning eastward, as Mr Erdogan tests its institutions to destruction in the purges that followed July’s failed
coup and his moves towards one-man rule. In both countries the jails are full. Today Egypt is somehow subjected to chain-ganging to Saudi Arabia
the biggest US ally in the Arab world.

Egypt, which has faced major security, political, and economic challenges in recent years, has grown quite dependent on the oil-rich kingdom for
financial aid. The Saudis, long reliant on external support for defense, have counted on Egypt as a strong and experienced military force to confront
what they perceive to be Iran’s expansionist and “aggressive” operations throughout the region. President Abdel Fa ah el-Sisi is also a very strong
supporter of Donald Trump and his policy for the region. (h ps://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/03/world/middleeast/-egypt-sisi-trump-white-
house.html)

The Triangle :Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The ongoing dispute between Qatar and the rest of Arab Gulf Cooperation Council (h ps://middleeastnewsservice.com/2017/06/08/the-qatar-
crisis-explained-2-the-geopolitical-puzzle/)represents perhaps the greatest internal threat to the group since it was created as a bulwark against Shi’a
radicalism in the aftermath of the 1979 Iranian revolution. The split all but eliminates any prospect that the United States could forge a regional – let
alone an international – coalition to contain and roll back what many consider Iran’s growing regional clout.

The Trump administration can be forgiven for its lofty ambition to recreate a regional coalition of Arab Sunni states to stand against Shi’a Persian
Iran, a concept some have named “Arab NATO.”

Indeed, during his first foreign visit to an Arab-Islamic Summit in Saudi Arabia, President Trump outlined a wholesale return to US regional
policies grounded in traditional balance-of-power politics. (h ps://middleeastnewsservice.com/2017/06/08/the-crisis-over-qatar-explained1-what-
has-happened-and-the-role-of-the-us-foreign-policy/) He urged the Sunni Arab countries to forge an alliance that would “work together to isolate
Iran, deny it funding for terrorism, and pray for the day when the Iranian people have the just and righteous government they deserve.” For the US,
Saudi Arabia is an important counterterrorism partner but its spread of an intolerant version of Wahhabi Islam provides much of the theological
fuel for today’s violent radical Islamic terrorist groups.

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Unfortunately, for the Trump administration the heated Saudi-Qatari dispute is having the counterproductive effect of increasing opportunities for
Iranian influence rather than curbing them. Indeed, Iran has willingly stepped into the storm created by the Saudi-led siege of Qatar by
championing a diplomatic resolution, providing tons of food (h p://www.cnn.com/2017/06/11/middleeast/iran-qatar-planes-food/index.html) to
Qatar, and allowing Doha access to its sea and air corridors (h p://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-sees-opening-saudi-qatar-feud-offers-food-
airspace-qatar-n768891) for civilian and military traffic.

The security challenge is clear. First, there are the Gulf choke points of the straits of Malacca and Hormuz. Some 17m barrels a day pass through
Hormuz and most of the tankers then turn east. Both are vulnerable to closure or disruption by conflict or terrorist action. The lesson of Libya is
regime change can open up deep tensions leading to a civil war that cuts off the bulk of oil supply for years.

The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq greatly consumed US power and gave rise to rampant anti-American sentiments. In addition, with the rise of emerging
countries and the shift of global geopolitical gravity, the regional order has, once again, moved to the stage of accelerated evolution. Under huge social pressure, the
GCC states no longer completely followed the lead of the US. After closing the BBC Arabic channel which had just been brought in but was found to be in
contradiction with traditional social values in 1995, Saudi Arabia canceled the US air base in the country for similar reasons in 2001. That said, the GCC is not
monolithic. The BBC Arabic channel and the US air base were soon invited by Qatar. Al Jazeera and Al Udeid Air Base were then established. Qatar was the first
to be diplomatically independent in the GCC and embarked on a path of diversified diplomacy. Apart from expanding its relations with other big powers, it made
goodwill gestures to regional radicalists, providing funding assistance to Hamas, Muslim Brotherhood and other radical organizations (Source: Cpifa.org).

To Egypt, Saudi Arabia is not only a supporter of Sisi’s military coup, but also its largest funder and a bridge to U.S. aid. To Bahrain, the security or
fall of its government entirely depends on the GCC headed by Saudi Arabia, and its pillar tourism industry is in need of the markets of neighboring
countries. To Libya and Yemen, Saudi Arabia is the major supporter of their central governments, while Qatar and Iran side with their opposition
forces. Israel is Saudi Arabia’s new ally as during the Iran nuclear talks, Saudi Arabia plo ed with Israel for joint military actions against Iran, and
together they lobbied the U.S. Congress for barriers to lifting sanctions on Iran.

Aljazeera reported earlier this month of a potential Iraq-led mediation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, to de-escalate tensionscome, as the la er
leads the third year of a costly, intractable war across its border in Yemen,one of the world’s poorest countries. Saudi Arabia’s military intervention
in Yemen proved to be a “strategic failure”, but a full and official withdrawal from that country is unlikely, Al-Jazeera reports.
(h p://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/08/saudi-arabia-war-yemen-strategic-failure-170823072854582.html)

Read the Part 2 here including sources and further reading (h ps://middleeastnewsservice.com/2017/08/24/the-new-balance-of-powers-in-
the-middle-east-analysis-2/)

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ABDEL FATTAH AL-SISSI ANALYSIS BACHAR AL ASSAD BALANCE OF POWER CONSPIRACY DONALD
TRUMP EGYPT GEOPOLITICS IRAN MAP ARAB SPRING MIDDLE EAST MIDDLE EAST SITUATION
EXPLAINED PKK POLITICS QATAR QATAR CRISIS ROJAVA RUSSIA UNITED STATES RELATIONS RUSSIA// LA
RUSSIE// RUSSOPHOBIE/A SAUDI ARABIA SYKES-PICOT AGREEMENT SYRIA TURKEY TURKEY AND EGYPT
RELATIONS TURKEY RUSSIA RELATIONS UNITED STATES VLADIMIR PUTIN WAR IN SYRIA EXPLAINED YPG

3 thoughts on “The New Balance of Power in the Middle East – Analysis (1)”

1. To Shay says:
AUGUST 23, 2017 AT 21:25
Reblogged this on Middle East Eye.

2. daveyone1 says:
AUGUST 23, 2017 AT 23:02
Reblogged this on World Peace Forum.

3. Pingback: The New Balance of Power in the Middle East – Analysis (2) | Eyes on Europe & Middle East

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