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THE CASE OF
GA’AN LIBAH DISTRICT OF HARGEISA, SOMALILAND.
A Research Paper
Submitted for the partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of
B.A Degree in Economics
Under the Guidance of:
Mr. Zakaria Mousa
By:
Mukhtar Mahdi Aden 5644/13
Mohamoud Abdi Mohamed 5590/13
Rahma Abdirashid Nouh 5613/13
Admas University (H M C)
Department of Economics
August 2016
Otherwise stated. We also declare that it has not been prepared previously or concurrently
submitted as a
Whole for any other degrees at Admas University or any other institutions.
We also declare that this research is prepared by three different people, and share every effort, cost
Signature____________________
Signature____________________
Signature____________________
Signature: ………………………………….
Date: ………………………………………
Figures
FIGURE 1: Economic growth of Somaliland is an important factor that contributed the inflation
in this country……………………………………………………………………………………19
FIGURE 2: The merchants of Somaliland are derived the prices of commodities up without
considering the welfare of their society………………………………………………………….20
FIGURE 3: Lack of role of ministry of commerce has encouraged the merchants to raise the price
of products………………………………………………………………………………………21
FIGURE 4: Lack of role of central bank and untaxed goods and services has encouraged merchants
to take over price determination…………………………………………………………………22
FIGURE 5: The huge imports of goods from the abroad have an impact of inflation to the
economy………………………………………………………………………………………….22
FIGURE 6: Unstable exchange rate and the dollarized economy have also extreme effect to the
high price of commodity of Hargeisa especially Ga’an Libah District…………………………23
FIGURE 7: As far as the standard of living of households goes up also the prices of commodities
go up……………………………………………………………………………………………24
FIGURE 8: The inflation hurts the life of groups in the society therefore the relationship between
these variables is negative or inverse relationship………………………………………………25
FIGURE 9: The decline purchasing power is caused by the increasing prices and also lack of
investment in Somaliland………………………………………………………………………25
FIGURE 10: Incomes of households are increasing positively for the last twenty years in
Somaliland………………………………………………………………………………………26
FIGURE 11: There is no need of government policies to control inflation……………………27
FIGURE 12: There is a different business owners who sell their products and services higher prices
other than ordinary prices that led others to do the same…………………………………………27
FIGURE 13: Unexpected changes in the prices causes chaos in the local markets……………….28
Carlos (2009) concludes that inflation is a global matter of concern because large segments of
population have been affected while the marginalized sectors are comparatively more affected where a
larger proportion of income is destined towards purchasing edibles. The implication is obvious and the
effects are palpable as sharp rise in the price of rice, and food more generally, across Asian countries
can be expected to wreak havoc among lower-income groups. In particular, a substantial increase in
miseries may be expected of those who are already living below the poverty line, and can be expected
to drive others into poverty (ADB Report, 2008). Millions of people are being pushed further into
hunger as food becomes unaffordable (The Daily News. January 30, 2011).
If inflation raises the central bank raises the interest rate, meaning that the cost of borrowing increases
so the amount of money borrowed by individuals and companies decreases, which in turn decreases
the amount of money in the economy (money supply). The effect of inflation on interest rate is simply
Somaliland has no an effective economic system that works properly, therefore it is difficult to
explain any component of the economic philosophy such as the rate of inflation and
unemployment, which are the most important tools that drive the measurement of economic
wellbeing of any country whether its developed or under developed one. This research therefore focuses
on finding the impact of inflation on the standard of living of people in Ga’an Libah district of Hargeisa
and other additional districts in the city of Somaliland.
2. To examine the main sources cause the increasing and uncontrollable inflation.
3. To find out the possible solutions of controlling and deducting the inflation.
4. To recommend policy possibility of interventions to tackle the problem of inflation on living standard.
2. What are the main sources cause the increasing and uncontrollable inflation?
4. State the recommendations of policy possibility of interventions to tackle the problem of inflation on
standard of living?
1.5. Scope
1.5.1. Time Scope
This study will be conducted in late 2016.
1.5.2. Geographical Scope
This study will conducted in the selected area of Hargeisa, Somaliland (Ga’an Libah District) and some
other extra districts to evaluate and do some observations to look into the situations and if there is any
differences and similarities between Ga’an Libah districts and the other districts.
2.1.2.3 Hyperinflation:
It is a stage of very high rate of inflation. While economies seem to survive under galloping inflation,
a third and deadly strain takes hold when the cancer of hyperinflation strikes. Nothing good can be said
Keynesian (Keynes and his followers) do not deny this fact that even before reaching full employment
production factors and various appearing constraint can cause increase in public price. This inflation
constraint that appears quickly during prosperity is originally resulting from no proportioned section,
branches and or various economic resources that are accounted from natural properties of discipline
based on market. Therefore, in one period of prosperity it is completely natural. According to demand-
pull inflation theory of Keynes, policy that causes decrease in each component of total demand is
effective in reduction of pressure demand and inflation. One of the reductions in government
expenditure is tax increase and to control volume of money alone or together, can be effective in
reducing effective demand and inflation control. In difficult conditions, e.g. hyperinflation during war
that control of volume of money or decrease in general expenditure may not be practical increase in tax
can get along with direct action for control on demand.
The labor unions press employers to grant wage increases considerably, thereby raising the cost of
production of commodities. Employers in turn, raise prices of their products. Higher wages enable
workers to buy as much as before, in spite of higher prices. On the other hand, the increase in prices
A few sectors of the economy may be affected by increase in money wages and prices of their products
may be rising. In many cases, their products are used as inputs for the production of commodities in
other sectors. As a result, cost of production of other sectors will rise and thereby push up the prices of
their products. Thus wage-push inflation in a few sectors of the economy may soon lead to inflationary
rise in prices in the entire economy. Further, an increase in the price of imported raw materials may
lead to cost-push inflation. Another cause of Cost-Push inflation is profit-push inflation. Oligopolist
and monopolist firms raise the price of their products to offset the rise in labor and cost of production
to earn higher profits. There being imperfect competition in the case of such firms, they are able to
administered price of their products. Profit-push inflation is therefore called administered-price
inflation or price-push inflation.
Market power may be sensitive to inflation, thus creating an additional channel by which inflation
directly affects the macroeconomic. In a series of papers, Bénabou (1988, 1992a, 1992b) links the
welfare costs of inflation to its impact on market power. When monopolistically competitive firms set
prices with (S, s) rules, he shows that inflation increases the dispersion of prices within an industry.
Consequently, buyers devote more resources to search and, for a given level of market power, inflation
lowers welfare. However, additional search may reduce market power and lessen resource
misallocation. On balance, the welfare effects of inflation are ambiguous, and depend critically on the
sign of the relation between market power and inflation. In Ball and Roomer (1996) and Tomas (1994),
inflation lowers welfare by increasing relative price variability, reducing the information about future
prices contained in current prices, and thus allowing firms to raise markups on less informed and less
price-elastic consumers.
This is will bring lots of profit to the business because when the households are paid well, so they will
spend more. Beside that's quality of life are also important to business activity, because when the
quality of life is high in the country, they will desire for high quality and more luxury goods and
services. Maybe standard of living and quality of life will affect the decision making of a business but
When comparing UK vs. US, one feature of the US is that people have to devote a high % of income
to health care insurance.
The poverty line is defined as: The level of expenditure necessary to buy a minimum level of nutrition
and other basic necessities. The World Bank say that the poverty line can vary somewhat from country
to country, reflecting different costs of living for taking part in the everyday life of society.
Real GDP per Capita, adjusted for the local cost of living (PPP)
Life expectancy
Education – levels of literacy
The highest human development is given a value of 1. Low levels of Human development are given a
value close to 0.
In 1997, the country with the highest levels of HDI was Canada with 0.932
The poorest country was Sierra Leone with an HDI of 0.254
It is similar to the Index of Human Development, but, the HPI gives a greater weighting to examining
how economic development is distributed throughout society
The monetarists emphasized the role of money. Modern quantity theory led by Milton Friedman holds
that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon that arises from a more rapid
expansion in the quantity of money than in total output. Its earliest explanation was to be found in the
simple quantity theory of money. The monetarists employed the familiar identity of exchange equation
of Fisher. Asserts that money supply growth is the cause of inflation. Faster money supply growth
causes faster inflation. In particular, 1% faster money supply growth causes 1% more inflation. With
other things constant, the price level is proportional to the money supply. Doubling the money supply
would double prices.
2.2.1.2 Structural Inflation Theory
About 40 years ago, the concept of structural inflation entered in economic discussion and research. It
is related to the effect of structural factors on inflation. Structural analysis attempts to recognize how
economic phenomena and finding the root of the permanent disease and destruction such as inflation
that evaluates lawful relationship between the phenomena.
In the economic structural factor causes, supply increase related to demand-push, even if abundant
unemployment production factor is impossible or slow. Therefore, reasoning of less developed
countries, till the time not successful to change in the form of lagging behind structure or not to make
attempt for immediate self-economic growth or should compromise with the inflation that is very
severe sometimes. This inflation, giving the structural improvement, results as a cost in fact that is
given for immediate economic growth. Structuralism, even the group that does not fine necessary for
changing the present policy foundation for eradicating inflation, with the control of inflation through
government intervention in the market structure and also, by adopting decisive plans for justly division
of inflation pressure there is no opposition and in fact stress is done on these arrangement. But, common
anti-inflation measures especially contraction monetary and budget policy from their point of view, is
nothing but only a prescription for stopping the economic growth of non-developing countries, that
also through experts that or rationing developed investment countries and world organization under
their supremacy (rule) and or by understanding less developed economy features are disabled
(crippled).
Inflation is really bad for your retirement planning because your target has to keep getting higher and
higher to pay for the same quality of life. In other words, your savings will buy less. As a result,
you will need to save more today to pay for higher priced goods and services in the future. Since
everything you buy today costs more, so you have less left-over income available to save.
Inflation has another bad side-effect...once people start to expect inflation, they will spend now rather
than later. That's because they know things will only cost more lately. This consumer spending
heats up the economy even more, leading to further inflation. This situation is known as spiraling
inflation because it spirals out of Control. Inflation is important if you are holding bonds or Treasury
notes. These fixed price assets only give a fixed return each year. As inflation spirals faster than
the return on these assets, they become less valuable. As they become less valuable, people
rush to sell them, further depreciating their value. As their value becomes lower, the U.S.
government is forced to offer higher interest rates to sell them at all. This increases mortgage
interest rates.
Although, inflation deteriorates living standard but not for all, yet, it blesses too, e.g. debtors, and is a
contributing factor of motivation to earn more and more to cope with the phenomenon. Your standard
While the previous rules of thumb are perfectly acceptable for most basic surveys, sometimes you need
to sound more “scientific” in order to be taken seriously. In that case you can use the above table.
Simply choose the column that most closely matches your population size. Then choose the row that
matches the level of error you’re willing to accept in the results. You will see on this table that the
smallest samples are still around 100, and the biggest sample (for a population of more than 5000) is
still around 1000. The same general principles apply as before – if you plan to divide the results into
lots of sub-groups, or the decisions to be made are very important, you should pick a bigger sample.
3.5.
Data Collection
3.5.1 Sources of Data
THE IMPACT OF INFLATION ON STANDARD OF LIVING Page 16
Data will be collect from both primary and secondary sources. Primary sources these were
basically the respondents and it’s from the result of the questionnaires and interviews that will be
distributed among the sample size of the targeted population. Secondary data will be less most of
the data will be primary data generated from government institutions previous Data and some
NGOs secondary data.
The table above show that 17 percent of the respondent’s age were 18-25, and 29 percent of
respondent’s age between 26-30 , 24 percent of respondents were between31-40 , and 30 percent of
respondent’s between 18-25 while 15 percent above 40. The respondent’s ages are different because
of the different households in the district and their families.
The table above shows that 23 percent of respondent were university level because of they were a
people who study after Somaliland got its independence back, 25 percent respondent were secondary
level and the reason was unaffordability of education and other personal problems, 22 percent of
respondent were primary /intermediate level while 30 percent was uneducated and the reason is most
of those people didn’t get the chance to study education.
As the above table shows 5% of respondents are government staff and 23% were businessman, while
other 22% were self-employee and 8% were students and the rest 32% were unemployed most parents.
Figure 1: The increase of the number of population has caused the inflation in this district:
Figure 2: Economic growth of Somaliland is an important factor that contributed the inflation in this
country:
Figure 5: Lack of role of central bank and untaxed goods and services has encouraged merchants
to take over price determination.
Figure 6: The huge imports of goods from the abroad have an impact of inflation to the economy.
Figure 9:
Figure 12:
Figure 13: The inflation hurts the life of groups in the society therefore the relationship
between these variables is negative or inverse relationship:
Open Ended Question: in the opinion of the respondent, these are the corrective
measures that they believed it can minimize the riskiness of inflation.
There is many different answers proposed by the participants but here the researcher presents the
most common answers and the corrective measures they answered which are as follows:
Central bank should be improved and the government should control all the exchange rate
through central bank, this will make easy to control determination of the exchange rate.
Neutral tax should be levied on the imported goods until there is a solution to restrict and ban all
the products that Somaliland industries can produce in order to restrict it.
These are the common solutions that respondents answered; therefore this study is proposing
these arguments to the concerned groups such as government institutions those are mentioned at
the above points. Government has very limited role to the market, and they suggested that
government role should be improved.
5.2 Recommendation:
In the conclusion of this study the researcher summarized the findings of the study
and confirmed that inflation hurts the standard of living and real purchasing power of
society, the study also discovered that inflation in hargaisa specially this district (Ga’an Libah)
is worsening after time and the government of Somaliland must set a policy for controlling
inflation or at least to slow it’s rate. The researcher recommended the following points:
The ministry of finance should impose heavy restrictions to the imported goods since they
are causing inflation or taking a huge contribution this worsening situation.
The government should encourage and improve the central bank in order to manage the
exchange rate and take back the determination of exchange rate as well as supply of money to
distribute efficiently.
Since inflation is big disaster in here Somaliland the government must set policies
towards that problem and the ministry of commerce should participate and also the ministry of
planning should take part of planning this policy.
The government must improve the standard of living of individuals in order to reduce the
riskiness of inflation.
Business community must use domestic produced goods rather than imported goods, this
would help the infant industries to produce more commodities with lower prices and the
purchasing power of the society will go up and the life style of the population will be better,
this is will cause economic growth and the society will save money, which can create
investment opportunities and new labor will be used and functioning resources will work
Business community should improve their investment capacity for increasing
employment activity in order to improve the standard of living.
Business men should give care their community and charge as low prices as possible, the
people of hargaisa and the other provinces are weakened by high prices of commodities, so the
merchants or business community must think of their society and stop seeking high profits
which effects the life style of the population and lower the prices as possible.
D. Ricardo, Principles of Political Economy and Taxation, London, Murray Publication, 1817.
Early Monetarists: Jean Bodin (1530-1596), John Locke (1632-1704), Henry Thornton and the
English Balloonists, Simon Newcomb (1835-1909), Irving Fisher (1867-1947), James Laurence
Laughlin (1850-
1933), Henry C. Simons (1899-1946), James W. Angell (1898-1986) and etc. The Monetarists of
the Chicago School : Milton Friedman (1912-. 2006), Anna J. Schwartz (1915- ), Philip Cogan
(1927- ), Edmund S. Phelps(1933- ), Karl Brunner (1916-), Allan H. Meltzer (1928- ), David E.W.
Ladler (1938-), Harry G. Johnson (1923-1979) and etc.
M. Friedman and A .J. Schwartz, "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960",
Princeton, The Princeton University Press, 1963.
J. M. Keynes," The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money", London, Macmillan
Publication, 1936.
Barnett, William A, Jia Liu, Ryan S. Mattson, and Jeff van den Noort. “The New CFS Divisia
Monetary Aggregates: Design, Construction, and Data Sources.” Open Economies Review 24
(February 2013): 101-124.
Barnett, William A. Getting It Wrong: How Faulty Monetary Statistics Undermine the Fed, the
Financial System, and the Economy. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2012.
Belongia, Michael T. “Money Matters: Recent Results from Monetary Economics Reexamined.”
Journal of Political Economy 104 (October 1996): 1065-1083.
http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Inflation.
Kenneth Scheve, Inflation Aversion and the Political Economy of Macroeconomic Policymaking.
International Organization.
http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/inflation/inflation-types-causes-and-effects-with-
diagram/6401
http://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Global_economics/Inflation.
M. S. Goodfriend, "A Framework for the Analysis of Moderate Inflations", Elsevier, Elsevier, the
Journal of Monetary Economics, 39(1), P 45-66, 1997.
R. G. King., "The New IS-LM Model: Language, Logic, and Limits", Richmond, the Federal
Reserve Bank of Richmond, Economic Quarterly Journal, 86 (3), P 45–103.
http://www.economicsdiscussion.net/category/inflation
For more information on the emergence of the literature on new political Macroeconomics, see;
A. Alesina, and N. Roubini, "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomics", Cambridge, the MIT
Press, (1997).
Thank you.
GENERAL INFORMATION
(Please circle the appropriate answer that best represents your opinion)
11. The huge imports of goods from the abroad have an impact of
inflation to the economy.
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Disagree
d. Strongly Disagree
12. Unstable exchange rate and the dollarized economy have also extreme effect to the
high price of commodity of Hargeisa specially Ga’an Libah District:
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Disagree
d. Strongly Disagree
13. As far as the standard of living of households goes up also the prices of
commodities go up:
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Disagree
d. Strongly Disagree
14. The inflation hurts the life of groups in the society therefore the
relationship between these variables is negative or inverse relationship:
a. Strongly Agree
b. Agree
c. Disagree
d. Strongly Disagree
15. The decline purchasing power is caused by the increasing prices and also