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You are on page 1of 28

CHAPTER

and Decision Making

© Larry Downing/Reuters/Landov

USING QUANTITATIVE METHODS TO SOLVE REAL

BUSINESS PROBLEMS

s you embark on your study of data analysis and decision making, you

A might question the usefulness of quantitative methods to the “real

world.” A front-page article in the December 31, 1997, edition of USA Today

entitled “Higher Math Delivers Formula for Success” provides some convinc-

ing evidence of the applicability of the methods you will be learning.The sub-

heading of the article,“Businesses turn to algorithms to solve complex

problems,” says it all.Today’s business problems tend to be very complex. In

the past, many managers and executives used a “by the seat of your pants”

approach to solve problems—that is, they used their business experience,

their intuition, and some thoughtful guesswork to obtain solutions. But com-

mon sense and intuition go only so far in the solution of the complex prob-

lems businesses now face.This is where data analysis and decision making—

and the algorithms mentioned in the title of the article—are so useful.When

the methods in this book are implemented in user-friendly computer soft-

ware packages and are then applied to complex problems, the results can be

amazing. Robert Cross, whose company, DFI Aeronomics, sells algorithm-

based systems to airlines, states it succinctly:“It’s like taking raw information

and spinning money out of it.”

The power of the methods in this book is that they are applicable to

so many problems and environments.The article mentions the following

1

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“success stories” where quantitative analysis has been applied; others will be discussed

throughout this book.

1. United Airlines installed one of DFI’s systems, which cost between $10 million and

$20 million. United expects the system to add $50 million to $100 million annually

to its revenues.

2. The Gap clothing chain uses quantitative analysis to determine exactly how many

employees should staff each store during the holiday rush.

3. Quantitative analysis has helped medical researchers test potentially dangerous

drugs on fewer people with better results.

4. IBM obtained a $93-million contract to build a computer system for the

Department of Energy that would do a once-impossible task: make exact real-time

models of atomic blasts. It won the contract—and convinced the DOE that its sys-

tem was cost effective—only by developing quantitative methods that would cut the

processing time by half.

5. Hotels, airlines, and television broadcasters all use quantitative analysis to implement

a new method called “yield management.” In this method, different prices are

charged to different customers, depending on their willingness to pay.The effect is

that more customers are attracted, and revenues increase.

The article concludes by stating that Microsoft’s Excel spreadsheet software contains a

mini-optimization program called Solver.This is a key statement. Many of the algorithms that

enable the successes discussed in the article are very complex mathematically.They are well

beyond the grasp of the typical user, including most readers of this book. However, users

no longer need to understand all of the details behind the algorithms.They need only to

know how to model business problems so that appropriate algorithms can be applied and

then how to apply them with user-friendly software. For example, we see in Chapters 14

and 15 how to apply Excel’s Solver to a variety of complex problems.You will not learn the

intricacies of how Solver does its optimization, but you will learn how to use Solver very

productively.The same statement applies to the other methods discussed in this book.You

might not understand exactly what is happening in the computer’s “black box” as it per-

forms its calculations, but you will learn how to become a very effective problem solver by

taking advantage of powerful software. ■

1.1 INTRODUCTION

We are living in the age of technology. This has two important implications for everyone

entering the business world. First, technology has made it possible to collect huge amounts

of data. Retailers collect point-of-sale data on products and customers every time a trans-

action occurs; credit agencies have all sorts of data on people who have or would like to

obtain credit; investment companies have a limitless supply of data on the historical pat-

terns of stocks, bonds, and other securities; and government agencies have data on eco-

nomic trends, the environment, social welfare, consumer product safety, and virtually

everything else we can imagine. It has become relatively easy to collect the data. As a

result, data are plentiful. However, as many organizations are now beginning to discover, it

is quite a challenge to analyze and make sense of all the data they have collected.

A second important implication of technology is that it has given many more people the

power and responsibility to analyze data and make decisions on the basis of quantitative

analysis. Those entering the business world can no longer pass all of the quantitative analy-

sis to the “quant jocks,” the technical specialists who have traditionally done the number

crunching. The vast majority of employees now have a desktop or laptop computer at their

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disposal, they have access to relevant data, and they have been trained in easy-to-use soft-

ware, particularly spreadsheet and database software. For these employees, statistics and

other quantitative methods are no longer forgotten topics they once learned in college.

Quantitative analysis is now an integral part of their daily jobs.

A large amount of data already exists and will only increase in the future. Many com-

panies already complain of swimming in a sea of data. However, enlightened companies

are seeing this expansion as a source of competitive advantage. By using quantitative

methods to uncover the information in the data and then acting on this information—again

guided by quantitative analysis—they are able to gain advantages that their less enlight-

ened competitors are not able to gain. Several pertinent examples of this follow.

■ Direct marketers analyze enormous customer databases to see which customers are

likely to respond to various products and types of promotions. Marketers can then

target different classes of customers in different ways to maximize profits—and give

their customers what the customers want.

■ Hotels and airlines also analyze enormous customer databases to see what their cus-

tomers want and are willing to pay for. By doing this, they have been able to devise

very clever pricing strategies, where not everyone pays the same price for the same

accommodations. For example, a business traveler typically makes a plane reserva-

tion closer to the time of travel than a vacationer. The airlines know this. Therefore,

they reserve seats for these business travelers and charge them a higher price (for the

same seats). The airlines profit, and the customers are happy.

■ Financial planning services have a virtually unlimited supply of data about security

prices, and they have customers with widely differing preferences for various types

of investments. Trying to find a match of investments to customers is a very chal-

lenging problem. However, customers can easily take their business elsewhere if

good decisions are not made on their behalf. Therefore, financial planners are under

extreme competitive pressure to analyze masses of data so that they can make

informed decisions for their customers.

■ We all know about the pressures U.S. manufacturing companies have faced from foreign

competition in the past couple of decades. The automobile companies, for example,

have had to change the way they produce and market automobiles to stay in business.

They have had to improve quality and cut costs by orders of magnitude. Although the

struggle continues, much of the success they have had can be attributed to data analysis

and wise decision making. Starting on the shop floor and moving up through the organi-

zation, these companies now measure almost everything they do, analyze these measure-

ments, and then act on the information from these measurements.

We talk about companies analyzing data and making decisions. However, companies don’t

really do this; people do it. And who will these people be in the future? They will be you! We

know from experience that students in all areas of business, at both the undergraduate and

graduate level, will soon be required to describe large complex data sets, run regression

analyses, make quantitative forecasts, create optimization models, and run simulations. You

are the person who will soon be analyzing data and making important decisions to help gain

your company a competitive advantage. And if you are not willing or able to do so, there will

be plenty of other technically trained people who will be more than happy to replace you.

Our goal in this book is to teach you how to use a variety of quantitative methods to

analyze data and make decisions. We plan to do so in a very hands-on way. We discuss a

number of quantitative methods and illustrate their use in a large variety of realistic busi-

ness problems. As you will see, this book includes many examples from finance, market-

ing, operations, accounting, and other areas of business. To analyze these examples, we

take advantage of the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet package, together with a number of

1.1 Introduction 3

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powerful Excel add-ins. In each example we will provide step-by-step details of the

method and its implementation in Excel.

This is not a “theory” book. It is also not a book where you can lean comfortably back

in your chair, prop your legs up on a table, and read about how other people use quantita-

tive methods. It is a “get your hands dirty” book, where you will learn best by actively fol-

lowing the examples throughout the book at your own PC. In short, you will learn by

doing. By the time you have finished, you will have acquired some very useful skills for

today’s business world.

This book is packed with quantitative methods and examples, probably more than can be

covered in any single course. Therefore, we purposely intend to keep this introductory

chapter brief so that you can get on with the analysis. Nevertheless, it is useful to introduce

the methods you will be learning and the tools you will be using. In this section we provide

an overview of the methods covered in this book and the software that is used to implement

them. Then in the next section we preview some of the examples we cover in much more

detail in later chapters. Finally, we present a brief discussion of models and the modeling

process. Our primary purpose at this point is to stimulate your interest in what is to follow.

This book is rather unique in that it combines topics from two separate fields: statistics and

management science. In a nutshell, statistics is the study of data analysis, whereas man-

agement science is the study of model building, optimization, and decision making. In the

academic arena these two fields traditionally have been separated, sometimes widely.

Indeed, they are often housed in separate academic departments. However, from a user’s

standpoint it makes little sense to separate them. Both are useful in accomplishing what the

title of this book promises: data analysis and decision making.

Therefore, we do not distinguish between the “statistics” and “management science”

parts of this book. Instead, we view the entire book as a collection of useful quantitative

methods that can be used to analyze data and help make business decisions. In addition,

our choice of software helps to integrate the various topics. By using a single package,

Excel, together with a number of add-ins, we see that the methods of statistics and man-

agement science are similar in many important respects. Most importantly, their combina-

tion gives us the power and flexibility to solve a wide range of business problems.

Three important themes run through this book. Two of them are in the title: data analysis

and decision making. The third is dealing with uncertainty.1 Each of these themes has sub-

themes. Data analysis includes data description, data inference, and the search for

relationships in data. Decision making includes optimization techniques for problems with

no uncertainty, decision analysis for problems with uncertainty, and structured sensitivity

analysis. Dealing with uncertainty includes measuring uncertainty and modeling uncertainty

explicitly into the analysis. There are obvious overlaps between these themes and subthemes.

When we make inferences from data and search for relationships in data, we must deal with

uncertainty. When we use decision trees to help make decisions, we must deal with uncer-

tainty. When we use simulation models to help make decisions, we must deal with uncertainty,

and we often make inferences from the simulated data.

1The fact that the uncertainty theme did not find its way into the title of this book does not detract from its impor-

tance. We just wanted to keep the title reasonably short!

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Figure 1.1 shows where you will find these themes and subthemes in the remaining chap-

ters of this book. In the next few paragraphs we discuss the book’s contents in more detail.

Figure 1.1

Themes and

Subthemes

mation in data sets. These include graphical and tabular summaries, as well as numerical

summary measures such as means, medians, and standard deviations. The material in these

two chapters is elementary from a mathematical point of view, but it is extremely impor-

tant. As we stated at the beginning of this chapter, organizations are now able to collect

huge amounts of raw data. The question then becomes, What does it all mean? Although

there are very sophisticated methods for analyzing data sets, some of which we cover in

later chapters, the “simple” methods in Chapters 2 and 3 are crucial for obtaining an initial

understanding of the data. Fortunately, Excel and available add-ins now make what was

once a very tedious task quite easy. For example, Excel’s pivot table tool for “slicing and

dicing” data is an analyst’s dream come true. You will be amazed at the complex analysis it

enables you to perform—with almost no effort!

After the analysis in Chapters 2 and 3, we step back for a moment in Chapter 4 to see

how we get the data we need in the first place. We know from experience that many students

and businesspeople are able to perform appropriate statistical analysis once they have the

data in a suitable form. Often the most difficult part, however, is getting the right data, in the

right form, into a software package for analysis. Therefore, in Chapter 4 we present a num-

ber of extremely useful methods for doing this within Excel. Specifically, we discuss meth-

ods for using Excel’s built-in filtering tools to perform queries on Excel data sets, for using

Microsoft Query (part of Microsoft Office) to perform queries on external databases (such

as Access) and bring the resulting data into Excel, for importing data directly into Excel

from Web sites, and for “cleansing” data sets (getting rid of “bad” data values). This chapter

provides tools that many analysts need but are usually not even aware of.

Uncertainty is a key aspect of most business problems. To deal with uncertainty, we need

a basic understanding of probability. We provide this understanding in Chapters 5 and 6.

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Chapter 5 covers basic rules of probability and then discusses the extremely important con-

cept of probability distributions. Chapter 6 follows up this discussion by focusing on two of

the most important probability distributions, the normal and binomial distributions. It also

briefly discusses the Poisson and exponential distributions, which have many applications in

probability models.

We have found that one of the best ways to make probabilistic concepts “come alive”

and easier to understand is by using computer simulation. Therefore, simulation is a com-

mon theme that runs through this book, beginning in Chapter 5. Although the final two

chapters of the book are devoted entirely to simulation, we do not hesitate to use simula-

tion early and often to illustrate difficult statistical concepts.

In Chapter 7 we apply our knowledge of probability to decision making under uncer-

tainty. These types of problems—faced by all companies on a continual basis—are charac-

terized by the need to make a decision now, even though important information (such as

demand for a product or returns from investments) will not be known until later. The mate-

rial in Chapter 7 provides a rational basis for making such decisions. The methods we

illustrate do not guarantee perfect outcomes—the future could unluckily turn out differ-

ently than we had expected—but they do enable us to proceed rationally and make the best

of the given circumstances. Additionally, the software we use to implement these methods

allows us, with very little extra work, to see how sensitive the optimal decisions are to

inputs. This is crucial because the inputs to many business problems are, at best, educated

guesses. Finally, we examine the role of risk aversion in these types of decision problems.

In Chapters 8, 9, and 10 we discuss sampling and statistical inference. Here the basic

problem is to estimate one or more characteristics of a population. If it is too expensive or

time consuming to learn about the entire population—and it usually is—we instead select

a random sample from the population and then use the information in the sample to infer

the characteristics of the population. We see this continually on news shows that describe

the results of various polls. We also see it in many business contexts. For example, auditors

typically sample only a fraction of a company’s records. Then they infer the characteristics

of the entire population of records from the results of the sample to conclude whether the

company has been following acceptable accounting standards.

In Chapters 11 and 12 we discuss the extremely important topic of regression analysis,

which is used to study relationships between variables. The power of regression analysis is

its generality. Every part of a business has variables that are related to one another, and

regression can often be used to estimate possible relationships between these variables. In

managerial accounting, regression is used to estimate how overhead costs depend on direct

labor hours and production volume. In marketing, regression is used to estimate how sales

volume depends on advertising and other marketing variables. In finance, regression is

used to estimate how the return of a stock depends on the “market” return. In real estate

studies, regression is used to estimate how the selling price of a house depends on the

assessed valuation of the house and characteristics such as the number of bedrooms and

square footage. Regression analysis finds perhaps as many uses in the business world as

any method in this book.

From regression, we move to times series analysis and forecasting in Chapter 13. This

topic is particularly important for providing inputs into business decision problems. For

example, manufacturing companies must forecast demand for their products to make sen-

sible decisions about quantities to order from their suppliers. Similarly, fast-food restau-

rants must forecast customer arrivals, sometimes down to the level of 15-minute intervals,

so that they can staff their restaurants appropriately.

There are many approaches to forecasting, ranging from simple to complex. Some

involve regression-based methods, in which one or more time series variables are used to

forecast the variable of interest, whereas other methods are based on extrapolation. In an

extrapolation method the historical patterns of a time series variable, such as product

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demand or customer arrivals, are studied carefully and are then “extrapolated” into the

future to obtain forecasts. A number of extrapolation methods are available. In Chapter 13

we study both regression and extrapolation methods for forecasting.

Chapters 14 and 15 are devoted to spreadsheet optimization, with emphasis on linear

programming. We assume a company must make several decisions, and there are con-

straints that limit the possible decisions. The job of the decision maker is to choose the

decisions such that all of the constraints are satisfied and an objective, such as total profit

or total cost, is optimized. The solution process consists of two steps. First, we build a

spreadsheet model that relates the decision variables to other relevant quantities by means

of logical formulas. In this first step there is no attempt to find the optimal solution; all we

want to do is relate all relevant quantities in a logical way. The second step is then to find

the optimal solution. Fortunately, Excel contains a Solver add-in that performs this step.

All we need to do is specify the objective, the decision variables, and the constraints;

Solver then uses powerful algorithms to find the optimal solution. As with regression, the

power of this approach is its generality. An enormous variety of problems can be solved by

spreadsheet optimization.

Finally, Chapters 16 and 17 illustrate a number of computer simulation models. This is

not our first exposure to simulation—it is used in a number of previous chapters to illustrate

statistical concepts—but here it is studied in its own right. As we discussed previously, most

business problems have some degree of uncertainty. The demand for a product is unknown,

future interest rates are unknown, the delivery lead time from a supplier is unknown, and so

on. Simulation allows us to build this uncertainty explicitly into spreadsheet models.

Essentially, some cells in the model contain random values with given probability distribu-

tions. Every time the spreadsheet recalculates, these random values change, which causes

“bottom-line” output cells to change as well. The trick then is to force the spreadsheet to

recalculate many times and keep track of interesting outputs. In this way we can see which

output values are most likely, and we can see best-case and worst-case results.

Spreadsheet simulations can be performed entirely with Excel’s built-in tools. However,

this can be quite tedious. Therefore, we use a spreadsheet add-in to streamline the process. In

particular, we learn how the @RISK add-in can be used to run replications of a simulation,

keep track of outputs, create useful charts, and perform sensitivity analyses. With the inher-

ent power of spreadsheets and the ease-of-use of such add-ins as @RISK, spreadsheet simu-

lation is becoming one of the most popular quantitative tools in the business world.

The topics we have just discussed are very important. Together, they can be used to solve a

wide variety of business problems. However, they are not of much practical use unless we

have the software to do the number crunching. Very few business problems are small

enough to be solved with pencil and paper. They require powerful software.

The software included in new copies of this book, together with Microsoft Excel, pro-

vides you with a powerful software combination that you will not use for one course and

then discard. This software is being used—and will continue to be used—by leading com-

panies all over the world to solve large, complex problems. We firmly believe that the

experience you obtain with this software, through working the examples and problems in

this book, will give you a key competitive advantage in the marketplace.

It all begins with Excel. All of the quantitative methods that we discuss are imple-

mented in Excel. We cannot forecast the state of computer software in the long-term

future, but as we are writing this book Excel is the most heavily used spreadsheet package

on the market, and there is every reason to believe that this state will persist for many

years. Most companies use Excel, most employees and most students have been trained in

Excel, and Excel is a very powerful, flexible, and easy-to-use package.

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Virtually everyone in the business world knows the basic features of Excel, but relatively few

know many of its more powerful features. In short, relatively few people are the “power

users” we expect you to become by working through this book. To get you started, the file

Excel Tutorial.doc on the CD-ROM inside new copies of this book explains some of the

“intermediate” features of Excel—features that we expect you to be able to use. These

include the SUMPRODUCT, VLOOKUP, IF, NPV, and COUNTIF functions. They also

include range names, the Data Table command, the Paste Special command, the Goal Seek

command, and a few others. Finally, although we assume you can perform routine spread-

sheet tasks such as copying and pasting, we include a few tips to help you perform these tasks

more efficiently.

Although the tutorial is In the body of the book we describe several of Excel’s advanced features in more

presented in a Word detail. In Chapters 2 and 3 we introduce pivot tables, the Excel tool that enables you to

file, it contains summarize data sets in an almost endless variety of ways. (Excel has many useful tools, but

“embedded” Excel

spreadsheets that we personally believe that pivot tables are the most ingenious and powerful of all. We

allow you to practice won’t be surprised if you agree.) Beginning in Chapter 5, we introduce Excel’s RAND

spreadsheet techniques function for generating random numbers. This function is used in all spreadsheet simula-

within Word. tions (at least those that do not take advantage of an add-in).

Solver Add-in

In Chapters 14 and 15 we make heavy use of Excel’s Solver add-in. This add-in, developed

by Frontline Systems (not Microsoft), uses powerful algorithms—all behind the scenes—

to perform spreadsheet optimization. Before this type of spreadsheet optimization add-in

was available, specialized (nonspreadsheet) software was required to solve optimization

problems. Now we can do it all within a familiar spreadsheet environment.

StatTools Add-in

Much of this book discusses basic statistical analysis. Here we needed to make an important

decision as we developed the book. A number of excellent statistical software packages are on

the market, including Minitab, SPSS, SAS, StatGraphics, and many others. Although there are

now user-friendly Windows versions of these packages, they are not spreadsheet-based. We

have found through our own experience that students resist the use of nonspreadsheet pack-

ages, regardless of their inherent quality, so we wanted to use Excel as our “statistics package.”

(We briefly discuss SPSS and SAS in Chapter 4, but they are not used anywhere else in the

book.) Unfortunately, Excel’s built-in statistical tools are rather limited, and the Analysis

ToolPak (developed by a third party) that ships with Excel has significant limitations.

Therefore, we developed an add-in called StatTools that accompanies this book.2

StatTools is powerful, easy to use, and capable of generating output quickly in an easily

interpretable form. We do not believe you should have to spend hours each time you want

to produce some statistical output. This might be a good learning experience the first time,

but after that it acts as a strong incentive not to perform the analysis at all! We believe you

should be able to generate output quickly and easily. This gives you the time to interpret

the output, and it also allows you to try different methods of analysis.

A good illustration involves the construction of histograms, scatterplots, and time series

graphs, discussed in Chapter 2. All of these extremely useful graphs can be created in a straight-

forward way with Excel’s built-in tools. But by the time you perform all the necessary steps and

“dress up” the charts exactly as you want them, you will not be very anxious to repeat the whole

process again. StatTools does it all quickly and easily. (You still might want to “dress up” the

2Users of the previous edition of the book will note the change from StatPro to StatTools. Palisade Corporation

has redeveloped StatPro as a commercial package under the name StatTools. The user interface has changed con-

siderably (for the better), but the statistical functionality is virtually the same.

00837_01_ch1_p0001-0028 3/16/06 1:54 PM Page 9

resulting charts, but that’s up to you.) Therefore, if we advise you in a later chapter, say, to look

at several scatterplots as a prelude to a regression analysis, you can do so in a matter of seconds.

SolverTable Add-in

An important theme throughout this book is sensitivity analysis: How do outputs change

when inputs change? Typically these changes are made in spreadsheets with a data table, a

built-in Excel tool. However, data tables don’t work in optimization models, where we

would like to see how the optimal solution changes when certain inputs change. Therefore,

we include an Excel add-in called SolverTable to perform this type of sensitivity analysis.

It works almost exactly like Excel’s data tables, and it is included with this book. In

Chapters 14 and 15 we explain how to use SolverTable.

Decision Tools Suite

In addition to StatTools, SolverTable, and built-in Excel add-ins, we also have included in

this book a slightly scaled-down version of Palisade Corporation’s powerful Decision

Tools suite. Most of the items in this suite are Excel add-ins—so the learning curve isn’t

very steep. There are six separate packages in this suite: @RISK, PrecisionTree, TopRank,

RISKOptimizer, BestFit, and RISKview. The first two are the most important for our pur-

poses, but all are useful for certain tasks.

@RISK

The simulation add-in @RISK enables us to run as many replications of a spreadsheet sim-

ulation as we like. As the simulation runs, @RISK automatically keeps track of the outputs

we select, and it then displays the results in a number of tabular and graphical forms.

@RISK also enables us to perform a sensitivity analysis, so that we can see which inputs

have the most effect on the outputs. Finally, @RISK provides a number of spreadsheet func-

tions that enable us to generate random numbers from a variety of probability distributions.

PrecisionTree

The PrecisionTree add-in is used in Chapter 7 to analyze decision problems with uncer-

tainty. The primary method for performing this type of analysis is to draw a decision tree.

Decision trees are inherently graphical, and they have always been difficult to implement

in spreadsheets, which are based on rows and columns. However, PrecisionTree does this

in a very clever and intuitive way. Equally important, once the basic decision tree has been

built, it is easy to use PrecisionTree to perform a sensitivity analysis on the model inputs.

TopRank

Although we will not use the other Palisade add-ins as extensively as @RISK and

PrecisionTree, they are all worth investigating. TopRank is the most general of them. It

starts with any spreadsheet model, where a set of inputs are used, along with a number of

spreadsheet formulas, to produce an output. TopRank then performs a sensitivity analysis

to see which inputs have the largest effect on the output. For example, it might tell us

which input affects after-tax profit the most: the tax rate, the risk-free rate for investing, the

inflation rate, or the price charged by a competitor. Unlike @RISK, TopRank is used when

uncertainty is not explicitly built into a spreadsheet model. However, it considers uncer-

tainty implicitly by performing sensitivity analysis on the important model inputs.

RISKOptimizer

RISKOptimizer combines optimization with simulation. There are often times when we

want to use simulation to model some business problem, but we also want to optimize a

summary measure, such as a mean, of an output distribution. This optimization can be

performed in a trial-and-error fashion, where we try a few values of the decision vari-

able(s) and see which provides the best solution. However, RISKOptimizer provides a

more automatic (and time-intensive) optimization procedure.

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BestFit

BestFit is used to determine the most appropriate probability distribution for a spreadsheet

model when we have data on some uncertain quantity. For example, a simulation might

model each week’s demand for a product as a random variable. What probability distribu-

tion should we use for weekly demand: the well-known normal distribution or possibly

some skewed distribution? If we have historical data on weekly demands for the product,

we can feed them into BestFit and let it recommend the distribution that best fits the data.

This is a very useful tool in real applications. Instead of guessing a distribution that we

think might be relevant, we can let BestFit point us to a distribution that fits historical data

well. We discuss BestFit briefly in Chapter 6.

RISKview

Palisade Corporation Finally, RISKview is a drawing tool that complements @RISK. A number of probability dis-

originally marketed tributions are available in @RISK and can be used in simulations. Each has an associated

BestFit and RISKview @RISK function, such as RiskNormal, RiskBinomial, and so on. Before selecting any of

as separate products.

Although they still exist these distributions, however, it is useful (especially for beginners) to see what these distribu-

as separate products, tions look like. RISKview performs this task easily. For any selected probability distribution

their functionality is now (and any selected parameters of this distribution), it creates a graph of the distribution, and it

included in @RISK. allows us to find probabilities for the distribution in a completely intuitive, graphical manner.

We use RISKview in Chapter 16 to help learn about potential input probability distributions

for simulation models.

Software Guide

Figure 1.2 provides a guide to where these various add-ins appear throughout the book. We

don’t show Excel explicitly in this figure for the simple reason that Excel is used exten-

sively in all chapters.

With Excel and the add-ins included in this book, you have a wealth of software at

your disposal. The examples and step-by-step instructions throughout this book will help

you to become a power user of this software. Admittedly, this takes plenty of practice and

a willingness to experiment, but it is certainly within your grasp. When you are finished,

we will not be surprised if you rate “improved software skills” as the most valuable thing

you have learned from this book.

Figure 1.2

Software Guide StatTools

@RISK 6, 16–17

RISKview

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Perhaps the best way to illustrate what you will be learning in this book is to preview a few

examples from later chapters. Our intention here is not to teach you any methods; that will

come later. We only want to indicate the types of problems you will learn how to solve.

Each example below is numbered as in the chapter where it appears.

EXAMPLE 3.9

goods. Because of its variety, it has a large number of customers. The company classi-

fies these customers as small, medium, and large, depending on the volume of business

each does with Spring Mills. Recently, Spring Mills has noticed a problem with its

accounts receivable. It is not getting paid back by its customers in as timely a manner as it

would like. This obviously costs Spring Mills money. If a customer delays a payment of

$300 for 20 days, say, then the company loses potential interest on this amount. The com-

pany has gathered data on 280 customer accounts. For each of these accounts, the data set

lists three variables: Size, the size of the customer (coded 1 for small, 2 for medium, 3 for

large); Days, the number of days since the customer was billed; and Amount, the amount

the customer owes. What information can we obtain from these data?

Objective To use charts, summary measures, and pivot tables to understand data on

accounts receivable at Spring Mills.

Solution

It is always a good idea to get a rough sense of the data first. We do this by calculating sev-

eral summary measures for Days and Amount, a histogram of Amount, and a scatterplot of

Amount versus Days. The next logical step is to see whether the different customer sizes

have any effect on either Days, Amount, or the relationship between Days and Amount.

There is obviously a lot going on here. We point out the following: (1) there are far fewer

large customers than small or medium customers; (2) the large customers tend to owe

considerably more than small or medium customers; (3) the small customers do not tend

to be as long overdue as the medium or large customers; and (4) there is no relationship

between Days and Amount for the small customers, but there is a definite positive relation-

ship between these variables for the medium and large customers. If Spring Mills really

wants to decrease its receivables, it might want to target the medium-size customer group,

from which it is losing the most interest. Or it could target the large customers because

they owe the most on average. The most appropriate action depends on the cost and effec-

tiveness of targeting any particular customer group. However, the analysis presented here

gives the company a much better picture of what’s currently going on.

This example from Chapter 3 is a typical example of trying to make sense out of a large

data set. Spring Mills has 280 observations on each of three variables. By realistic stan-

dards, this is not a large data set, but it still presents a challenge. We examine the data from

a number of angles and present several tables and charts. For example, the scatterplots in

Figures 1.3 through 1.5 clearly indicate that there is a positive relationship between the

amount owed and the number of days since billing for the medium- and large-size cus-

tomers, but that no such relationship exists for the small-size customers. As we will see,

graphs such as these are very easy to construct in Excel, regardless of the size of the data set.

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00837_01_ch1_p0001-0028.ps 6/17/05 12:53 PM Page 13

EXAMPLE 7.1

invited to make a bid on a government contract. The contract calls for a specific num-

ber of these instruments to be delivered during the coming year. The bids must be sealed

(so that no company knows what the others are bidding), and the low bid wins the contract.

SciTools estimates that it will cost $5000 to prepare a bid and $95,000 to supply the instru-

ments if it wins the contract. On the basis of past contracts of this type, SciTools believes

that the possible low bids from the competition, if there is any competition, and the associ-

ated probabilities are those shown in Table 1.1. In addition, SciTools believes there is a

30% chance that there will be no competing bids.

Low Bid Probability

Between $115,000 and $120,000 0.4

Between $120,000 and $125,000 0.3

Greater than $125,000 0.1

Solution

This is a typical example of decision making under uncertainty, the topic of Chapter 7.

SciTools has to make decisions now (whether to bid and, if so, how much to bid), without

knowing what the competition is going to do. The company can’t assure itself of a perfect

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outcome, but it can make a rational decision in light of the uncertainty it faces. We will see

how decision trees, produced easily with the PrecisionTree add-in to Excel, not only lay

out all of the elements of the problem in a logical manner but also indicate the best solu-

tion. The completed tree for this problem is in Figure 1.6, which indicates that SciTools

should indeed prepare a bid, for the amount $115,000.

EXAMPLE 9.5

A n auditor wants to determine the proportion of invoices that contain price errors—that

is, prices that do not agree with those on an authorized price list. He checks 93 ran-

domly sampled invoices and finds that two of them include price errors. What can he con-

clude, in terms of a 95% one-sided confidence interval, about the proportion of all invoices

with price errors?

Solution

This is an important application of statistical inference in the auditing profession. Auditors

try to determine what is true about a population (in this case, all of a company’s invoices)

by examining a relatively small sample from the population. The auditor wants an upper

limit so that he is 95% confident that the overall proportion of invoices with errors is no

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greater than this upper limit. We show the spreadsheet solution in Figure 1.7, which shows

that the auditor can be 95% confident that the overall proportion of invoices with errors is

no greater than 6.6% (see cell B10).

Figure 1.7

Analysis of Auditing

Example

EXAMPLE 11.2

T he Bendrix Company manufactures various types of parts for automobiles. The man-

ager of the factory wants to get a better understanding of overhead costs. These over-

head costs include supervision, indirect labor, supplies, payroll taxes, overtime premiums,

depreciation, and a number of miscellaneous items such as charges for building deprecia-

tion, insurance, utilities, and janitorial and maintenance expenses. Some of these overhead

costs are “fixed” in the sense that they do not vary appreciably with the volume of work

being done, whereas others are “variable” and do vary directly with the volume of work.

The fixed overhead costs tend to come from the supervision, depreciation, and miscella-

neous categories, whereas the variable overhead costs tend to come from the indirect labor,

supplies, payroll taxes, and overtime premiums categories. However, it is not easy to draw

a clear line between the fixed and variable overhead components.

The Bendrix manager has tracked total overhead costs over the past 36 months. To

help “explain” these, he has also collected data on two variables that are related to the

amount of work done at the factory. These variables are

■ MachHrs: number of machine hours used during the month

■ ProdRuns: number of separate production runs during the month

The first of these is a direct measure of the amount of work being done. To understand the

second, we note that Bendrix manufactures parts in fairly large batches. Each batch corre-

sponds to a production run. Once a production run is completed, the factory must “set up”

for the next production run. During this setup there is typically some downtime while the

machinery is reconfigured for the part type scheduled for production in the next batch.

Therefore, the manager believes both of these variables might be responsible (in different

ways) for variations in overhead costs. Do scatterplots support this belief?

Solution

This is a typical regression example, in a cost-accounting setting. The manager is trying to

see what type of relationship, if any, there is between overhead costs and the two explana-

tory variables: number of machine hours and number of production runs. The scatterplots

requested appear in Figures 1.8 and 1.9. They do indeed indicate a positive and linear rela-

tionship between overhead and the two explanatory variables.

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00837_01_ch1_p0001-0028.ps 6/17/05 12:53 PM Page 17

the variables. This equation can be determined from regression output such as that shown

in Figure 1.10. This output implies the following equation for predicted overhead as a

function of machine hours and production runs:

Predicted Overhead 3997 43.54MachHrs 883.62ProdRuns

The positive coefficients of MachHrs and ProdRuns indicate the effects these variables

have on overhead. We will not take the example any further at this point but will simply indicate

that it is easy to generate the output in Figure 1.10 with StatTools. The challenge is learning

how to interpret it. We spend plenty of time in Chapters 11 and 12 on interpretation issues. ■

EXAMPLE 13.3

T he file PCDevices.xls contains quarterly sales data (in millions of dollars) for a chip-

manufacturing firm from the beginning of 1990 through the end of 2004. Are the com-

pany’s sales growing exponentially through this entire period?

Solution

This example illustrates a regression-based trend curve, one of several possible forecasting

techniques for a time series variable. A time series graph of the company’s quarterly sales

appears in Figure 1.11. It indicates that sales have been increasing steadily at an increasing

rate. This is basically what an exponential trend curve implies. To estimate this curve we

use regression analysis to obtain the following equation for predicted quarterly sales as a

function of time:

Predicted Sales 61.376e0.0663Time

This equation implies that the company’s sales are increasing by approximately 6.6%

per quarter during this period, which translates to an annual percentage increase of about

29%! As we see in Chapter 13, this is the typical approach used in forecasting. We look at

a time series graph to discover trends or other patterns in historical data and then use one

of a variety of techniques to fit the observed patterns and extrapolate them into the future.

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Figure 1.11

Time Series Graph

of Quarterly Sales

at a PC Chip

Manufacturer

EXAMPLE 15.6

A t the present time, the beginning of year 1, the Barney-Jones Investment Corporation

has $100,000 to invest for the next 4 years. There are five possible investments,

labeled A through E. The timing of cash outflows and cash inflows for these investments is

somewhat irregular. For example, to take part in investment A, cash must be invested at the

beginning of year 1, and for every dollar invested, there are returns of $0.50 and $1.00 at

the beginnings of years 2 and 3. Similar information for the other investments are as fol-

lows, where all returns are per-dollar invested:

■ Investment B: Invest at the beginning of year 2, receive returns of $0.50 and $1.00 at

the beginnings of years 3 and 4.

■ Investment C: Invest at the beginning of year 1, receive return of $1.20 at the begin-

ning of year 2.

■ Investment D: Invest at the beginning of year 4, receive return of $1.90 at the begin-

ning of year 5.

■ Investment E: Invest at the beginning of year 3, receive return of $1.50 at the begin-

ning of year 4.

We assume that any amounts can be invested in these strategies and that the returns are the

same for each dollar invested. However, to create a diversified portfolio, Barney-Jones

decides to limit the amount put into any investment to $75,000. The company wants an

investment strategy that maximizes the amount of cash on hand at the beginning of year 5.

At the beginning of any year, it can invest only cash on hand, which includes returns from

previous investments. Any cash not invested in any year can be put in a short-term money

market account that earns 3% annually.

Solution

This is one of many optimization examples we present in Chapters 14 and 15. The typical

situation is that a company such as Barney-Jones must make several decisions, subject to

certain constraints, that optimize some objective. In this case, Barney-Jones needs to decide

the amounts to invest, subject to some constraints, to maximize its ending cash 4 years from

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now. Our job is to formulate a spreadsheet model, similar to the one shown in Figure 1.12,

that relates the various elements of the problem.

The investment amounts in row 26 are the decision variables, called “changing cells”

in Excel’s terminology. When we formulate the model, we can enter any values in these

changing cells; we do not need to guess “good” values. Then we turn it over to Excel’s

Solver add-in. The Solver uses a powerful algorithm to find the optimal values in the

changing cells—that is, the values that optimize the objective while satisfying the con-

straints. The values shown in Figure 1.12 are actually the optimal values. They imply that

Barney-Jones can end with final cash of $286,792 by investing as indicated in row 26.

EXAMPLE 17.9

W e assume that there are two dominant companies in the soft drink industry: “us” and

“them.” For this example, we will view everything from the point of view of “us.”

We start with a 45% market share. During each of the next 20 quarters, each company pro-

motes its product to some extent. To make the model simple, we will assume that each

company each quarter either promotes at a “regular” level or at a “blitz” level. Depending

on each company’s promotional behavior in a given month, the change in our market share

from this month to the next is triangularly distributed, with parameters given in Table 1.2.

For example, if we blitz and they don’t, then we could lose as much as 1% market share,

we could gain as much as 6% market share, and our most likely outcome is an increase of

2% market share. We want to develop a simulation model that allows us to gauge the long-

term change in our market share for any pattern of blitzing employed by us and them.

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Blitzer Minimum Most Likely Maximum

Both -0.05 0.00 0.05

Only us -0.01 0.02 0.06

Only them -0.06 -0.02 0.01

Solution

This is a typical example of computer simulation. We make a number of assumptions,

build a spreadsheet model around these assumptions, explicitly incorporate uncer-

tainty into some of the cells, and see how this uncertainty affects “bottom-line” out-

puts. The simulation model appears in Figure 1.13. Several cells in this model are

random, including all of the numerical values in rows 21 through 24. Therefore, the

numbers you see in this figure represent just one possible scenario of how market

shares might evolve through time. By generating new random values, we see different

scenarios.

Our job is to build the logic and randomness into the spreadsheet model. Then we can

use Excel’s built-in tools or an add-in such as @RISK to replicate the model and keep track

of selected outputs. A typical result from @RISK appears in Figure 1.14. It shows a time

series graph of how our market share might evolve, given a certain strategy of blitzing by

our company and theirs.

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Figure 1.14 Summary Chart of Our Market Share for One Set of Strategies

We have already used the term model several times in this chapter. In fact, we have shown

several spreadsheet models in the previous section. Models and the modeling process are

key elements throughout this book, so we explain them in more detail in this section.3

A model is an abstraction of a real problem. A model tries to capture the essence and

key features of the problem without getting bogged down in relatively unimportant details.

There are different types of models, and, depending on an analyst’s preferences and skills,

each can be a valuable aid in solving a real problem. We describe three types of models

here: (1) graphical models, (2) algebraic models, and (3) spreadsheet models.

Graphical models are probably the most intuitive and least quantitative type of model. They

attempt to portray graphically how different elements of a problem are related—what affects

what. A very simple graphical model appears in Figure 1.15. It is called an “influence

diagram.” (It can be constructed with the PrecisionTree add-in discussed in Chapter 7, but we

will not use influence diagrams in this book.)

Figure 1.15

Influence Diagram

for Souvenir

Example

3Management scientists tend to use the terms model and modeling more than statisticians. However, many tradi-

tional statistics topics such as regression analysis and forecasting are clearly applications of modeling.

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This particular influence diagram is for a company that is trying to decide how many

souvenirs to order for the upcoming Olympics. The essence of the problem is that the com-

pany will order a certain supply, customers will request a certain demand, and the combi-

nation of supply and demand will yield a certain payoff for the company. The diagram

indicates fairly intuitively what affects what. As it stands, the diagram does not provide

enough quantitative details to enable us to “solve” the company’s problem. But this is usu-

ally not the purpose of a graphical model. Instead, its purpose is usually to show the impor-

tant elements of a problem and how they are related. For complex problems this can be

very helpful and enlightening information for management.

Algebraic models are at the opposite end of the spectrum. By means of algebraic equations

and inequalities, they specify a set of relationships in a very precise way, and their precise-

ness and lack of ambiguity are very appealing to people with a mathematical background.

In addition, algebraic models can usually be stated concisely and with great generality.

A typical example is the “product mix” problem we discuss in Chapter 14. A company

can make several products, each of which contributes a certain amount to profit and con-

sumes certain amounts of several scarce resources. The problem is to select the product

mix that maximizes profit subject to the limited availability of the resources. All product

mix problems can be stated algebraically as follows:

n

max pj x j (1.1)

j1

n

subject to aij x j bi, 1im (1.2)

j1

0 xj uj, 1jn (1.3)

Here xj is the amount of product j produced, uj is an upper limit on the amount of product j

that can be produced, pj is the unit profit margin for product j, aij is the amount of resource i

consumed by each unit of product j, bi is the amount of resource i available, n is the number

of products, and m is the number of scarce resources. This algebraic model states very con-

cisely that we should maximize total profit [expression (1.1)], subject to consuming no

more of the resources than is available [inequalities (1.2)], and all production quantities

should be between 0 and the upper limits [inequalities (1.3)].

Algebraic models such as this appeal to mathematically trained analysts. They are

concise, they spell out exactly which data are required (we would need to estimate the uj’s,

the pj’s, the aij’s, and the bi’s from company data), they scale well (a problem with

500 products and 100 resource constraints is just as easy to state as one with only 5 prod-

ucts and 3 resource constraints), and many software packages accept algebraic models in

essentially the same form as shown here, so that no “translation” is required. Indeed, alge-

braic models were the preferred type of model for years—and still are by many analysts.

Their main drawback is that they require an ability to work with abstract mathematical

symbols. Some people have this ability, but many perfectly intelligent people do not.

A fairly recent alternative to algebraic modeling is spreadsheet modeling. Instead of relat-

ing various quantities with algebraic equations and inequalities, we relate them in a spread-

sheet with cell formulas. This process is much more intuitive to most people (at least in our

experience). One of the primary reasons for this is the instant feedback available from

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spreadsheets. If you enter a formula incorrectly, it is often immediately obvious (from error

messages or unrealistic numbers) that you have made an error, which you can then go back

and fix. Algebraic models provide no such immediate feedback.

A specific comparison might help at this point. We already saw a general algebraic

model of the product mix problem. Figure 1.16, taken from Chapter 14, illustrates a

spreadsheet model for a specific example of this problem. The spreadsheet model should

be fairly self-explanatory. All quantities in shaded cells are inputs to the model, the quanti-

ties in row 16 are the decision variables (they correspond to the xj’s in the algebraic model),

and all other quantities are created through appropriate Excel formulas. To indicate con-

straints, we enter inequality signs in appropriate cells.

A B C D E F G H I

1 Product mix model

2

3 Input data Range names used:

4 Hourly wage rate $8.00 Frames_produced =Model!$B$16:$E$16

5 Cost per oz of metal $0.50 Maximum_sales =Model!$B$18:$E$18

6 Cost per oz of glass $0.75 Profit =Model!$F$32

7 Resources_available =Model!$D$21:$D$23

8 Frame type 1 2 3 4 Resources_used =Model!$B$21:$B$23

9 Labor hours per frame 2 1 3 2

10 Metal (oz.) per frame 4 2 1 2

11 Glass (oz.) per frame 6 2 1 2

12 Unit selling price $28.50 $12.50 $29.25 $21.50

13

14 Production plan

15 Frame type 1 2 3 4

16 Frames produced 1000 800 400 0

17 <= <= <= <=

18 Maximum sales 1000 2000 500 1000

19

20 Resource constraints Used Available

21 Labor hours 4000 <= 4000

22 Metal (oz.) 6000 <= 6000

23 Glass (oz.) 8000 <= 10000

24

25 Revenue, cost summary

26 Frame type 1 2 3 4 Totals

27 Revenue $28,500 $10,000 $11,700 $0 $50,200

28 Costs of inputs

29 Labor $16,000 $6,400 $9,600 $0 $32,000

30 Metal $2,000 $800 $200 $0 $3,000

31 Glass $4,500 $1,200 $300 $0 $6,000

32 Profit $6,000 $1,600 $1,600 $0 $9,200

Figure 1.16 is undoubtedly more intuitive for most people than its algebraic counterpart,

the art of developing good spreadsheet models is not easy. Obviously, they must be correct.

The formulas relating the various quantities must have the correct syntax, the correct cell

references, and the correct logic. In complex models this can be quite a challenge.

However, correctness is not enough. If spreadsheet models are to be used in the busi-

ness world, they must also be well designed and well documented. Otherwise, no one other

than you (and maybe not even you after a few weeks have passed) will be able to under-

stand what your models do or how they work. The strength of spreadsheets is their

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flexibility—you are limited only by your imagination. However, this flexibility can be a

liability in spreadsheet modeling unless you plan the design of your models carefully.

Note the clear design in Figure 1.16. Most of the inputs are grouped at the top of

the spreadsheet. All of the financial calculations are done at the bottom. When there are

constraints, the two sides of the constraints are placed next to each other (as in the

range B21:D23). Borders, colors (which appear on the screen but not in this book), and

shading are used for added clarity. Descriptive labels are used liberally. Excel itself

imposes none of these “rules,” but you should impose them on yourself.

We have made a conscious effort to establish good habits for you to follow throughout

this book. We have designed and redesigned our spreadsheet models so that they are as clear

as possible. This does not mean that you have to copy everything we do—everyone tends to

develop their own spreadsheet style—but our models should give you something to emulate.

Just remember that in the business world, you typically start with a blank spreadsheet. It is

then up to you to develop a model that is not only correct but is also intelligible to you and to

others. This takes a lot of practicing and a lot of editing, but it is a skill well worth developing.

Most of the modeling you will do in this book is only part of the overall modeling process

typically done in the business world. We portray it as a seven-step process, as discussed

here. Of course, not all problems require all seven steps. For example, the analysis of sur-

vey data might entail primarily steps 2 (data analysis) and 5 (decision making), without the

formal model building discussed in steps 3 and 4.

The Modeling Process

1. Define the problem. Typically, a company does not develop a model unless it

believes it has a problem. Therefore, the modeling process really begins by identify-

ing an underlying problem. Perhaps the company is losing money, perhaps its market

share is declining, or perhaps its customers are waiting too long for service. Any

number of problems might be evident. However, as several people have warned [see

Miser (1993) and Volkema (1995), for example], this step is not always as straight-

forward as it might appear. The company must be sure that it has identified the right

problem before it spends time, effort, and money trying to solve it.

For example, Miser cites the experience of an analyst who was hired by the military to

investigate overly long turnaround times between fighter planes landing and taking off

again to rejoin the battle. The military was convinced that the problem was caused by

inefficient ground crews; if they were sped up, turnaround times would decrease. The

analyst nearly accepted this statement of the problem and was about to do classical

time-and-motion studies on the ground crew to pinpoint the sources of their inefficiency.

However, by snooping around, he found that the problem obviously lay elsewhere. The

trucks that refueled the planes were frequently late, which in turn was due to the ineffi-

cient way they were refilled from storage tanks at another location. Once this latter prob-

lem was solved—and its solution was embarrassingly simple—the turnaround times

decreased to an acceptable level without any changes on the part of the ground crews. If

the analyst had accepted the military’s statement of the problem, the real problem might

never have been located or solved.

2. Collect and summarize data. This crucial step in the process is often the most

tedious. All organizations keep track of various data on their operations, but these data

are often not in the form an analyst requires. They are also typically scattered in dif-

ferent places throughout the organization, in all kinds of different formats. Therefore,

one of the first jobs of an analyst is to gather exactly the right data and summarize the

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data appropriately—as we discuss in detail in Chapters 2 and 3—for use in the model.

Collecting the data typically requires asking questions of key people (such as the

accountants) throughout the organization, studying existing organizational databases,

and performing time-consuming observational studies of the organization’s processes.

In short, it entails a lot of leg work.

3. Formulate a model. This is the step we emphasize, especially in the latter chapters

of the book. The form of the model varies from one situation to another. It could be a

graphical model, an algebraic model, or a spreadsheet model. The key is that the

model should capture the key elements of the business problem in such a way that it

is understandable by all parties involved. This latter requirement is why we favor

spreadsheet models, especially when they are well designed and well documented.

4. Verify the model. Here the analyst tries to determine whether the model developed

in the previous step is an accurate representation of reality. A first step in determining

how well the model fits reality is to check whether the model is valid for the current

situation. This verification can take several forms. For example, the analyst could use

the model with the company’s current values of the input parameters. If the model’s

outputs are then in line with the outputs currently observed by the company, the ana-

lyst has at least shown that the model can duplicate the current situation.

A second way to verify a model is to enter a number of input parameters (even if

they are not the company’s current inputs) and see whether the outputs from the

model are reasonable. One common approach is to use extreme values of the inputs

to see whether the outputs behave as they should. If they do, then we have another

piece of evidence that the model is reasonable.

If certain inputs are entered in the model, and the model’s outputs are not as expected,

there could be two causes. First, the model could simply be a poor representation of

reality. In this case it is up to the analyst to refine the model until it provides reason-

ably accurate predictions. The second possible cause is that the model is fine but our

intuition is not very good. In this case the fault lies with us, not the model.

A typical example of faulty intuition occurs with random sequences of 0’s and 1’s,

such as might occur with successive flips of a fair coin. Most people expect that heads

and tails will alternate and that there will be very few sequences of, say, four or more

heads (or tails) in a row. However, a perfectly accurate simulation model of these flips

will show, contrary to what most people expect, that fairly long runs of heads or tails

are not at all uncommon. In fact, one or two long runs should be expected if there are

enough flips.

The fact that outcomes sometimes defy intuition is an important reason why models

are important. These models prove that our ability to predict outcomes in complex

environments is often not very good.

5. Select one or more suitable decisions. Many, but not all, models are decision mod-

els. For any specific decisions, the model indicates the amount of profit obtained, the

amount of cost incurred, the level of risk, and so on. If we believe the model is work-

ing correctly, as discussed in step 4, then we can use the model to see which deci-

sions produce the best outputs.

6. Present the results to the organization. In a classroom setting you are typically fin-

ished when you have developed a model that correctly solves a particular problem. In

the business world a correct model, even a useful one, is not always enough. An ana-

lyst typically has to “sell” the model to management. Unfortunately, the people in

management are sometimes not as well trained in quantitative methods as the analyst,

so they are not always inclined to trust complex models.

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There are two ways to mitigate this problem. First, it is helpful to include relevant

people throughout the company in the modeling process—from beginning to end—so

that everyone has an understanding of the model and feels an ownership for it.

Second, it helps to use a spreadsheet model whenever possible, especially if it is

designed and documented properly. Almost everyone in today’s business world is

comfortable with spreadsheets, so spreadsheet models are more likely to be accepted.

7. Implement the model and update it over time. Again, there is a big difference

between a classroom situation and a business situation. When you turn in a classroom

assignment, you are typically finished with that assignment and can await the next one.

In contrast, an analyst who develops a model for a company can usually not pack up his

bags and leave. If the model is accepted by management, the company will then need to

implement it company-wide. This can be very time consuming and politically difficult,

especially if the model’s prescriptions represent a significant change from the past. At

the very least, employees must be trained how to use the model on a day-to-day basis.

In addition, the model will probably have to be updated over time, either because of

changing conditions or because the company sees more potential uses for the model

as it gains experience using it. This presents one of the greatest challenges for a

model developer, namely, the ability to develop a model that can be modified as the

need arises. Keep this in mind as you develop models throughout this book. Always

try to make them as general as possible.

1.5 CONCLUSION

In this chapter we tried to convince you that the skills in this book are important for you to

know as you enter the business world. The methods we discuss are no longer the sole

province of the “quant jocks.” By having a PC on your desk that is loaded with powerful

software, you incur a responsibility to use this software to solve business problems. We

have described the types of problems you will learn to solve in this book, along with the

software you will use to solve them. We also discussed the modeling process, a theme that

runs throughout this book. Now it’s time for you to get started!

00837_01_ch1_p0001-0028.ps 6/17/05 12:53 PM Page 27

ruise ship traveling has become big business. weekly, and various professional singers and comedi-

C Many cruise lines are now competing for cus-

tomers of all age groups and socioeconomic levels.

ans played occasional single-night performances.4

Although this entertainment was free to all of the

They offer all types of cruises, from relatively inex- passengers, much of it had embarrassingly low atten-

pensive 3- to 4-day cruises in the Caribbean, to dance. The nightly show band and musical combos,

12- to 15-day cruises in the Mediterranean, to who were contracted to play nightly until midnight,

several-month around-the-world cruises. Cruises often had less than a half dozen people in the audi-

have several features that attract customers, many ence—sometimes literally none. The professional

of whom book 6 months or more in advance: (1) singers, dancers, and comedians attracted larger audi-

they offer a relaxing, everything-done-for-you way ences, but there were still plenty of empty seats. In

to travel; (2) they serve food that is plentiful, usu- spite of this, the cruise staff posted a weekly schedule,

ally excellent, and included in the price of the and they stuck to it regardless of attendance. In a

cruise; (3) they stop at a number of interesting short-term financial sense, it didn’t make much differ-

ports and offer travelers a way to see the world; ence.The performers got paid the same whether any-

and (4) they provide a wide variety of entertain- one was in the audience or not, the passengers had

ment, particularly in the evening. already paid (indirectly) for the entertainment as part

This last feature, the entertainment, presents a of the cost of the cruise, and the only possible oppor-

difficult problem for a ship’s staff. A typical cruise tunity cost to the cruise line (in the short run) was

might have well over 1000 passengers, including the loss of liquor sales from the lack of passengers in

elderly singles and couples, middle-aged people with the entertainment lounges. The morale of the enter-

or without children, and young people, often honey- tainers was not great—entertainers love packed

mooners. These various types of passengers have houses—but they usually argued, philosophically, that

varied tastes in terms of their after-dinner prefer- their hours were relatively short and they were still

ences in entertainment. Some want traditional getting paid to see the world.

dance music, some want comedians, some want If you were in charge of entertainment on this

rock music, some want movies, some want to go ship, how would you describe the problem with enter-

back to their cabins and read, and so on. Obviously, tainment: Is it a problem with deadbeat passengers,

cruise entertainment directors want to provide the low-quality entertainment, or a mismatch between the

variety of entertainment their customers desire— entertainment offered and the entertainment desired?

within a reasonable budget—because satisfied cus- How might you try to solve the problem? What con-

tomers tend to be repeat customers. The question straints might you have to work within? Would you

is how to provide the right mix of entertainment. keep a strict schedule such as the one followed by this

On a cruise one of the authors and his wife took cruise director, or would you play it more “by ear”?

a few years ago, the entertainment was of high quality Would you gather data to help solve the problem?

and there was plenty of variety. A seven-piece show What data would you gather? How much would finan-

band played dance music nightly in the largest lounge, cial considerations dictate your decisions? Would they

two other small musical combos played nightly at two be long-term or short-term considerations? ■

smaller lounges, a pianist played nightly at a piano bar 4There was also a moderately large onboard casino, but it tended to

in an intimate lounge, a group of professional singers attract the same people every night, and it was always closed when

and dancers played Broadway-type shows about twice the ship was in port.

00837_01_ch1_p0001-0028.ps 6/17/05 12:53 PM Page 28

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